TheCryptoDegen

BIG WARNING: THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD BE EXTREMELY VOLATILE FOR MARKETS 🚨

Two major US events are hitting almost back-to-back, and both can quickly change how markets price growth, recession risk, and rate cuts.

First: The US Supreme Court tariff ruling.

At 10:00 am ET, the Supreme Court will decide whether Trump tariffs are legal.

Markets are pricing roughly a 77% chance that the Court rules them illegal.

If that happens, the US government may need to refund a large portion of the $600B+ that is already collected from tariffs.

Even if tariffs are struck down, the President still has other legal tools to impose it, but those tools are slower, weaker, and less predictable.

The bigger risk is sentiment, as markets currently treat tariffs as supportive.

Any ruling against the tariffs means the market could start to price in the downside move, which will be bad for the crypto markets too.

Second: US unemployment data at 8:30 am ET.

Markets expect unemployment at 4.5%, down slightly from 4.6%.

If unemployment comes in higher, it strengthens the recession narrative.

If unemployment comes in lower, recession fears ease, but expectations for rate cuts fall even further.

The chance of a January rate cut is already low, around 11%.

Strong jobs data would likely eliminate hopes for a January cut.

So markets face a tough setup:
• Weak data = higher recession fears.
• Strong data = tighter policy for longer.

These two events together make the next 24 hours a high-risk window for markets.

So, be prepared for volatility and manage your positions.

THE US GOVERNMENT IS NOW HOLDING OVER $30 BILLION IN #BITCOIN AND CRYPTO

THE WORLD WILL NEVER BE THE SAME 🔥

$500 BILLION BANK OF CHINA HONG KONG JUST SAID IT IS NOW TAKING #BITCOIN AND DIGITAL ASSETS "SERIOUSLY"

ASIAN CAPITAL IS WAKING UP 🚀

Bitcoin Successfully Achieves 888 Weeks Online
#BTC

Whales Rule: What Happens When 1% of Bitcoin Holders Control 99% of the Supply?

BitInfoCharts data shows just 1.86% of Bitcoin wallet addresses holding over 90% of the total BTC supply, concerns are growing over market manipulation, centralization, and liquidity risks. These "whales" wield significant influence, sparking debates about the future of Bitcoin’s decentralization.

Caroline Bowler, CEO of BTC Markets, warns that centralizing control among a few could undermine Bitcoin’s core principles and destabilize trust in the system. While whales can sway market prices, as Phillip Lord from Oobit points out, they can’t change Bitcoin’s network without broader community approval through Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs).

Despite their power, whales can’t alter fundamental aspects like the 21 million BTC limit, notes Jonathan Hargreaves of Elastos. Yet, as Sasha Ivanov from Waves Tech acknowledges, there’s no current mechanism to prevent wealth concentration.

This ongoing centralization of Bitcoin’s supply emphasizes the critical need for decentralization and community-driven governance to preserve the integrity of the crypto space.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have started 2026 with $925m in net inflows year to date.

Even with a $243m outflow on 6 Jan, flows remain positive and point to ongoing institutional demand for BTC exposure.

🗄 Reddit user lost access to his BTC for 7 years due to a typo

In 2017, he encrypted his BIP38 paper wallet with a password he thought was secure. However, in 2024, when he tried to recover it, he couldn't get access. It turned out that the mistake was just one character — he pressed the wrong key.

This story reminds us how important it is to be careful when storing cryptocurrency on your own.

There's anonymous user who has been mining bitcoin every day since November 2016, sending all rewards to a wallet that now holds 4,165 bitcoin worth $375,000,000 and NEVER selling a single one.

The wallet has not been touched in over eight years.

Price surge: XRP surged over 18% to above $2.40, currently trading at $2.24, driven by strong institutional interest.
Technicals: Bullish momentum with a positive MACD, but the hourly RSI is oversold, suggesting a potential for a short-term pullback. Key resistance is at $2.41.
Catalysts: Spot XRP ETFs have attracted over $1.37 billion in net inflows since November 2025, signaling strong institutional conviction.
Market Overview
XRP is currently trading at $2.24, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $6.6 billion.
XRP saw a 19.4% price increase over 7 days, despite a 5.5% drop in the last 24 hours.
Its market capitalization stands at approximately $135.6 billion, ranking it as the 4th largest cryptocurrency.
The recent price surge saw XRP reach its highest level since mid-November 2025, breaking through previous resistance levels.
Driving Factors
Surging institutional interest is shown by spot XRP ETFs recording $46 million in net inflows on January 5, 2026.
Since launching in November 2025, these ETFs have attracted over $1.37 billion in net inflows, tightening market supply.
A positive regulatory outlook, following Ripple's legal victory in August 2025, has paved the way for institutional products.
Anticipation for the U.S. Senate's Market Structure Bill on January 15, which could further legitimize XRP, is also a key factor. Link
Whale Activity
Whale activity shows a bullish bias with a 2.76 long/short ratio, comprising 145 long whales versus 65 short whales.
Long whales have an average entry price of $2.14, while short whales entered at $2.10, placing most longs in profit at the current price.
Top traders also show bullish sentiment, with a clear "buy" signal and a net buy amount over $1.3 million recently.
Technical Analysis
XRP faces critical resistance at $2.41; a break could target $2.69. Key support levels are at $2.26 and $1.90.
The daily MACD shows bullish momentum, but the 4-hour RSI (68) is near overbought, suggesting correction risk.
Conversely, the 1-hour RSI is oversold (29.10), indicating a potential for a short-term bounce.

The Role of Risk Management in Crypto

Risk management is the cornerstone of successful crypto trading and investing. It safeguards your capital, minimizes losses, and helps you maximize returns in a volatile market.

Think of it as a protective shield for your investments. It allows you to identify risks, evaluate their impact, and employ strategies like diversification, stop-loss orders, and proper position sizing to mitigate potential losses.

For instance, if a cryptocurrency you hold suddenly drops in value, a well-placed stop-loss order can cap your losses, preventing a larger hit to your portfolio.

Effective risk management requires:

- Recognizing risks such as market volatility and cybersecurity issues
- Evaluating the potential effects on your investments
- Reducing risk through smart diversification and stop-loss strategies
- Consistently monitoring market shifts and updating your tactics

Momentum is beginning to signal a bottoming process.

(1) Momentum acts as a leading indicator for inflection points.

(2) This is followed by the consequent impulse.

Both the rally that started in April (+50%) and the downtrend in October (-36%) were preceded by a shift in momentum readings, creating significant divergences against $BTC price.

We are currently witnessing a similar shift; however, the divergence is still in its formation stage.

Is momentum foreshadowing a new rally?
If so, how far can this divergence extend before the move actually triggers?

$BTC and aggregate altcoin spot volumes printed their lowest levels since Nov 2023. This weakening demand contrasts sharply with upside moves across the market, highlighting increasingly thin liquidity conditions behind recent price strength ,according Glassnode data

Ghana officially legalizes Bitcoin by passing a Virtual Asset Service Providers law. Parliament created a framework to regulate virtual assets and businesses. The Bank of Ghana and Securities and Exchange Commission will issue licensing rules and directives, reports Forbes.

#solana Shorting
entry 135.03
TP 132.62
SL 136.00

-Walmart supports Bitcoin and crypto payments via OnePay amidst growing retail adoption.
THE impact it Brings
●Rising mainstream adoption – Walmart’s customer ecosystem reaches over 150 million people weekly

●Retail integration – Walmart’s integration of crypto into the OnePay retail banking app highlights a convergence of retail and finance

●Increased competition – Walmart becomes a competitor to other major apps that already provide crypto support, like PayPal, Venmo, or Cash App
#BTC走势分析

Happiest new year
#StrategyBTCPurchase

Bitcoin trades above 115.2k with 95% of supply in profit after the FOMC rally. Futures show short squeezes and options open interest hit a record 500k BTC ahead of the September 26 expiry. Holding above 115.2k is key while a drop risks a move back toward 105.5k.

Bitcoin rose 0.82% in the past 24h to $114,938, aligning with a 2.31% weekly gain. Here are the main

1. Institutional Accumulation (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Bitcoin ETFs saw $741M in net inflows over the past week, led by BlackRock’s IBIT (+$300M). Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz noted institutions are re-entering crypto, with BTC’s sideways action forming a “technical base” for upward moves.

What this means: Sustained ETF buying absorbs sell-side liquidity, creating upward pressure. The SEC’s potential approval of generic ETF standards (Weex) could unlock $148B in pending ETF applications, further institutionalizing BTC.

What to watch: September 17 Fed meeting for rate cut confirmation and SEC ETF decision updates.

2. Technical Momentum (Mixed Impact)

Overview: BTC broke above the 50% Fibonacci retracement ($115,864) with bullish MACD divergence (histogram +663.57). However, RSI-14 at 58.08 suggests room for consolidation before extended gains.

What this means: The $115K–$117K zone is critical – a clean break could target $120K (61.8% Fib), while failure risks a pullback to $112K support (7-day SMA).

Key threshold: Daily close above $116,500 to confirm continuation.

3. Macro Liquidity Tailwinds (Bullish Impact)

Overview: Markets fully price a 0.25% Fed rate cut on September 18, with Tom Lee (Fundstrat) projecting $200K BTC by December if cuts materialize. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) dipped 0.3% this week, easing crypto headwinds.

What this means: Lower rates reduce Treasury yields’ appeal, pushing capital toward inflation-resistant assets like Bitcoin. However, BTC’s 83% correlation to global liquidity (CoinMarketCap) means Fed guidance remains pivotal.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s 24h gain reflects institutional repositioning ahead of Fed policy shifts and technical momentum reclaiming key levels. While ETF flows and macro bets dominate, watch for altcoin rotation risks as BTC dominance dips to 57.18%.

Key watch: Can BTC hold $115K through the September 12 U.S. CPI print? A hotter inflation read might delay rate cut optimism.

Solana (SOL) rose 6.28% over the last 24h, outperforming its 7-day (+15.72%) and 30-day (+18.97%) trends. Key drivers include bullish technical indicators, ETF speculation, and network upgrades.
1. Technical Breakout (Bullish Impact)
Overview: SOL broke above its 7-day SMA ($213.48) and 30-day EMA ($201.76), with RSI14 at 66.04 (neutral-bullish) and MACD histogram at +1.66. The price also cleared the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level ($216.42).
What this means: Technical traders view this as confirmation of a bullish trend continuation. Rising volume (+53% to $12.9B) supports the move, signaling conviction.
Watch: A close above $243.3 (127.2% Fibonacci extension) could target $261.

2. ETF Speculation Intensifies (Bullish Impact)
Overview: The SEC’s proposed generic crypto ETF standards (Bloomberg) could fast-track Solana ETFs. SOL Strategies became the first Solana-focused firm listed on Nasdaq (STKE ticker) on Sept 9.
What this means: ETFs would open institutional floodgates – Franklin Templeton’s SOL ETF application is pending, and analysts now see a >50% approval chance by 2025.
Watch: SEC’s decision on Franklin’s filing expected late September.

3. Network Upgrades & Partnerships (Mixed Impact)
Overview: Validators approved the Alpenglow upgrade (targeting 150ms transaction finality) on Sept 3. Dubai’s VARA partnership (CoinMarketCap) aims to establish a Solana Economic Zone.
What this means: While upgrades address past congestion issues, the 98% validator approval rate reignited decentralization debates. Bullishness stems from Dubai’s regulatory alignment and developer incentives.

Conclusion
SOL’s rally combines technical momentum, ETF optimism, and strategic ecosystem growth – though validator centralization risks linger. Key watch: SEC’s ETF stance this month and whether SOL holds $243.3 resistance. For traders, the MACD crossover and volume trends suggest near-term bullish bias, but altcoin rotations remain volatile
#MarketRebound