Iran just showed the world why Bitcoin is the hardest money.
A student wakes up in Tehran and the phone is dead. Not “slow.” Dead. Iran is in a near-total internet blackout connectivity reported around 4% of normal. (The Washington Post)
The next problem isn’t politics. It’s money.
If the internet is off, payments don’t clear. If protests spread, accounts get watched. If the state feels threatened, banks become a control surface. And if the currency is melting, your savings bleed while you’re trying to stay safe. In late January the rial hit a record low around 1,500,000 per dollar. (Al Jazeera)
This is the war lesson: in conflict, money stops being neutral. The rails become permissioned. Access becomes conditional.
Bitcoin wins here for one simple reason: it’s bearer money.
Not “a bank account.” Not “a promise.” An asset you can hold yourself, move without asking, and take across borders in your head. It doesn’t fix war. But it does remove a key weapon: the ability to trap people inside a broken currency and a controlled banking system.
The best money is the money that still works when institutions don’t.
21 million units. No CEO. No freeze function. No hotline.
This is the ad Bitcoin never had to buy. Price doesn’t reflect it yet.
This is amazing , it was magnificent having you around. We keep building 🔥
Binance Africa
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We had an amazing turnout at our #Binance University event at Kisii University, Kenya, with over 800 attendees on March 4th! 🎉 The energy and enthusiasm were incredible.
Now, we want to hear from YOU - which university should we visit next?
Drop your suggestions and let’s keep the Binance learning journey growing across campuses! 🚀 #binanceuniversity
BREAKING: A whale has accidentally sent 126,000 TON to a scammer, worth ~$220,000.
but the guy later returned 116,000 TON (~$203k) and kept 10,000 TON (~$17k) as a “reward” for returning funds.
Here’s a quick TLDR on what’s happened:
- a whale was about to send coins - they accidentally copied the wrong wallet address from the transaction history. (This happened because the scammer had created a lookalike wallet address & sent a small amount of a TON to it, making it look real) - The whale wasn’t paying attention carefully. he saw the similar first symbols of the Wallet address & the last, then… - copied it without double-checking - A whale then went through with sending 126,000 TON to the scammers wallet by mistake.
When the scammer received the funds, he urgently sent back 116k TON and even dropped a message in the transaction saying:
“Sorry, the money is too much. I know it’s your hard‑earned funds.”
In exchange for returning funds he kept 10k TON for himself as compensation.
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Would you return the funds if someone accidentally sent you 120k TON ($220k) or would you keep it?
Those calling for and waiting for $30,000 to $40,000 were wrong and will be sidelined unless they chase.
As I said, the max drawdown I expected was 50-60%, not the 80-90% seen in past cycles.
$60,000 was a gift (52% down from the ATH), and it took a Binance "glitch," months of Jane Street manipulation, and plenty of shenanigans to get us there.
We got follow through on the PMI, and it is time for the main event: the full bull market.
IN MY OPINION: When your stack is 15x your expenses after a brutal drawdown in Bitcoin's price (NOT during a bull market, because at that point, chances are Bitcoin will fall to a much lower price in USD terms in the near future
Eg. Bitcoin falls 70%, annual expenses are 100K
Your stack should be worth at least $1.5M for you to retire
In future years, your stack will grow faster than your expenses
If you borrow against your Bitcoin to pay for expenses, you can likely retire sooner
IMO, Bitcoin will grow 20%+/year, meaning your stack will grow by $300K in the FIRST YEAR of your retirement
You will earn 3x more from just holding Bitcoin than your annual expenses
You can also set aside a cash buffer of 3-4 years just to make sure you don't have to sell during a bear market
I ran head-to-head regression diagnostics on the two strongest equity proxies for BTC. Here’s what the numbers say:
IGV (Software ETF) R² = 0.812 · β = 2.73 · z = +0.81σ Cointegration: yes But only 2/7 diagnostics pass. Rolling beta unstable. Structural breaks detected.
Nasdaq R² = 0.854 · β = 2.69 · z = -2.18σ Cointegration: no Also only 2/7 diagnostics pass. Rolling beta unstable. Structural breaks detected.
First principles: If both relationships only pass 2/7 tests and both show structural breaks, they’re not what Bitcoin is. They’re who is pricing it right now. Correlations are weather. Power law is gravity.
Translation: Short run → BTC trades like levered tech because crossover capital is the marginal buyer (β ≈ 2.7). Long run → BTC keeps orbiting its network adoption curve regardless of which equity proxy “fits” this year.
Key point most miss: The strongest “cheap” signal comes from the weaker relationship.
Nasdaq shows -2.18σ but fails cointegration. So that discount has no real anchor.
IGV is less exciting but more defensible: cointegration passes, and BTC is only +0.81σ relative to software.
So don’t worship either proxy.
Bitcoin is being priced like tech while sitting 41% below its long-term power-law trend.
That gap won’t close because Nasdaq catches up. It won’t close because IGV leads.
It closes when the marginal buyer changes. That’s when Bitcoin breaks from both charts.