The Cryptonomist

The World’s Most Exclusive Gathering for Web3, AI, and Digital Assets

Monaco — January 23, 2026 — Following the resounding success of its 2025 edition, WAIB Summit Monaco proudly announces its return on June 9–10, 2026, at the prestigious One Monte-Carlo, located in the heart of Monaco’s iconic Casino Square.

Recognized as one of the world’s most exclusive summits for Web3, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Assets, WAIB Summit Monaco 2026 will once again convene 2,000+ global attendees, including visionary founders, family offices, institutional investors, venture capitalists, regulators and policymakers, global brands, and thought leaders shaping the future of technology and innovation.

Building on the global momentum surrounding the Monaco Formula 1 Grand Prix, the summit uniquely blends cutting-edge innovation, luxury, and elite networking—transforming Monaco’s peak international spotlight into a gateway for the future of finance and the internet.

A Proven Global Impact

The 2025 edition of WAIB Summit Monaco featured:

150+ speakers from leading global organizations, including Microsoft, Coinbase, OKX, Galaxy Digital, B2C2, and AS Monaco, alongside many other world-class brands and institutions

50 top global KOLs with a combined audience of 6+ million followers

2,000+ international attendees

Over 1.3 million social media impressions

This momentum firmly established WAIB Summit Monaco as a landmark event for influence, investment, and impact across the Web3 and AI ecosystem.

Previous Sponsors & Partners

WAIB Summit Monaco has been proudly supported by 150+ leading global organizations and institutions across Web3, AI, finance, and academia, including:

Crypto.com, Animoca Brands, Internet Computer Protocol (ICP), Stacks, Ledger, CAMP, Nosana, iVault, Paybis, and Imperial College London.

Their participation underscores the summit’s credibility and its position as a trusted platform for global leaders and innovators.

What to Expect in 2026

WAIB Summit Monaco 2026 will deliver an expanded program of curated experiences and exclusive side events—bringing together top global exchanges, global banks and institutional leaders such as Standard Chartered, BNP Paribas, and Galaxy Digital, leading global family offices and institutional asset managers, alongside representatives from the Principality of Monaco and Liechtenstein—designed to foster innovation, collaboration, and capital formation at the highest level:

Family Offices Exclusive Meetup
A private gathering connecting UHNWI, family offices, asset managers, and institutional investors in an intimate, trusted environment.

WAIB Summit Monte Carlo Awards
Honoring excellence and breakthrough innovation across Web3, AI, and Digital Assets—celebrating the pioneers shaping the future of the decentralized economy.

VC & Startup Pitching Sessions
A high-impact platform where selected Web3 and AI startups present groundbreaking innovations to leading venture capitalists and strategic investors.

AI & Web3 Hackathon
Bringing together developers, builders, and innovators—partnering with global communities and top universities to create the next generation of decentralized and intelligent applications.

Top KOL VIP Gala
An exclusive celebration of global leaders and creators in Web3 and AI, featuring private workshops and high-level discussions on creativity, technology, and influence.

AI Film Festival
A celebration of AI-driven filmmaking, positioning artificial intelligence as a new creative engine for cinema and storytelling—exploring the evolving relationship between the creator and the created. The festival brings together filmmakers, artists, AI creators, and philosophers to collaborate and showcase new forms of creative expression.

AI Film Awards Jury Members
Anthony Bourached — Associate Professor of Machine Learning & Creative AI at UCL,  Vincent Lowy — Former Head, ENS Louis-Lumière

Official Website: https://aifilmfest-monaco.com

The Moon Party
An unforgettable closing celebration beneath the Monaco and Monte Carlo night sky, set on the beach along the Riviera coastline, bringing together founders, investors, and visionaries.

Tickets & Access

Official tickets for WAIB Summit Monaco 2026 are now available.
Early-bird rates are available for a limited time.
Website: https://waibsummit.com

https://app.moongate.id/e/waibsummitmonaco2026

About WAIB Summit

WAIB Summit (Web3 and AI Summit) is a global platform connecting thought leaders, investors, family offices, and innovators shaping the future of decentralized technology and artificial intelligence. Hosted in Monaco, following the Monaco Formula 1 Grand Prix weekend, WAIB Summit blends Monaco’s timeless elegance with the vision of the digital age.

For Sponsorship, Partnerships, Speaking Opportunities, or Media Inquiries:

joseph@waibsummit.com

New week, new crypto horoscope dedicated to the upcoming week from February 16 to 22, 2026. 

This week will be marked by two transits

the New Moon in Aquarius during the Solar Eclipse on Tuesday 17/2;

the new Sun in Pisces from Wednesday 18/2

For several months now, we have been dedicating space to the crypto horoscope written by Stefania Stimolo, an expert in astrology and blockchain. This is a weekly column featuring the horoscope for each zodiac sign, available every Sunday exclusively on The Cryptonomist. 

In our slogan “We Tell the Future,” we wanted to delve deeper into the topic, playfully speaking, with this entertainment column. 

The Crypto Horoscope

We call it a crypto horoscope simply because industry-specific terminology is used. 

Words like NFT, metaverse, and Over-The-Counter to describe actions and scenarios, but also trading terminology like bullish, bull run, bear market, or dump to identify the mood of each zodiac sign during the days of the week.

Obviously, the famous to-the-moon cannot be missing to indicate the mood of that sign! 

In general, you might experience a period akin to a “hard-fork,” understood as an “internal split,” or pass your lightning torch to the next zodiac sign, meaning the Sun is moving into the next sign. 

Or, simply, you need to reflect on certain situations that go into “verify,” meaning when the planet is in dissonance with the zodiac sign. Moreover, with each new transition of the Sun through the zodiac constellations, the roadmap of each sign will reach a new step. 

Obviously, no investment advice is given; rather, it is purely for entertainment, just like any other horoscope. It should be noted that many industry beginners have understood specific crypto terminology thanks to the horoscope on The Cryptonomist. 

“Don’t Trust, Verify”

Astrology is not an exact science, but it aims to predict the future in its own way. So why not associate the typical blockchain phrase “Don’t Trust, Verify” here as well. 

Indeed, what the author aims to offer is her interpretation of the planetary transits occurring during the week, describing the reaction of each zodiac sign, following the “logic” of traditional astrology. 

For those who are astrology enthusiasts, they might stay updated simply by following the transits that are communicated weekly, which, in some way, influence us. A Mercury Retrograde, rather than the days of a Full Moon. 

Others, on the other hand, might visit the dedicated page, which is updated every Sunday, and read the horoscope for their zodiac sign, their ascendant, or why not, even the horoscope of friends and loved ones. 
So, for entertainment purposes only, don’t waste time and click here to read your horoscope for this week!

From the cultural difference between Binance and Kraken to the evolution of the retail audience, covering AI, market cycles, and career in the crypto sector: the interview with Lorenzo Cappone.

Marketing in the crypto sector is entering a new phase. After years of hype, explosive growth, and aggressive communication, the audience has changed — and brands must change with it.

This is one of the key messages that emerged from the interview between Amelia Tomasicchio, founder of Cryptonomist, and Lorenzo Capone, currently at Kraken and formerly at Binance, among the most experienced Italian managers in the retail growth of exchanges.

The meeting provides a rare insider’s view of the industry: corporate culture, audience evolution, use of artificial intelligence, and crypto market dynamics in 2026.

Binance vs Kraken: speed versus identity

One of the most intriguing parts of the interview concerns the cultural difference between the two giants of the industry.

According to Capone, Binance epitomizes speed and aggressive execution:

“Binance is pure execution, scale, speed. Kraken, on the other hand, is more reflective: branding, values, identity. It is a more organized structure in terms of marketing.”

Kraken, a company historically perceived as solid and compliance-first, has a still limited presence in Italy and Southern Europe. This very absence has represented an opportunity for Capone:

“The brand is strong, the company is solid, but the local presence is almost nonexistent. I saw a great opportunity to make it known.”

It’s not just about market strategy, but also operational philosophy. Binance was created as a hyper-scalable machine; Kraken, with its American roots, prioritizes structure and brand consistency. Two opposing models that reflect different approaches to growth.

The crypto audience has changed

If there’s one point Capone is clear about, it’s this: the retail crypto audience is no longer naive.

“Today, people have a shield. They immediately recognize when someone is paid to say something. They understand when there’s shill, when there’s FUD, when there’s forced marketing.”

According to Capone, many medium to small exchanges still make a fatal mistake: underestimating the intelligence of the public.

After years of market cycles, failures, scandals, and speculative bubbles, users have developed a strong critical sense. Superficial or manipulative communication not only no longer works — it risks damaging the brand.

This change necessitates a thorough overhaul of crypto marketing:

less hype

more transparency

real education

consistent branding

AI in Marketing: Tool, Not Shortcut

Another central theme is artificial intelligence. Capone is clear: AI will not replace marketers, but it will raise the bar.

“It will not replace anyone. On the contrary, it will enhance the creativity needed for effective marketing.”

The issue isn’t AI itself, but its superficial use. Today, many brands chase trends without strategy, producing easily recognizable “cringe” AI content.

The public, once again, takes notice.

“They can tell in milliseconds when content is poorly generated with AI.”

The winning approach is holistic: integrating AI tools into workflows without distorting the brand’s human message.

Crypto Marketing in 2026: Education or Entertainment?

The marketing of retail exchanges today faces a segmentation challenge. The audience is vast and heterogeneous: experienced users coexist with novices.

According to Capone, the winning strategy remains diversification:

“A mix is needed. There are those who speak the crypto language and those who need basic financial education.”

There is no longer a dominant platform. Instagram, Twitter/X, TikTok, and YouTube require different languages and strategies. The challenge is not only creative but also operational: the marketing teams of exchanges are often made up of very few people.

Managing a multiplatform presence is a matter of priorities and resources.

Working in the Crypto Sector Today: End of the Easy Era

Another significant step concerns employment in the sector.

In 2021, simply labeling oneself as a “Web3 enthusiast” on LinkedIn was enough to secure interviews. By 2026, the landscape is radically different.

“Today you need to deliver value. Titles matter little. What counts is the track record.”

Companies seek tangible results, not generic enthusiasm. Determination and personal initiative make the difference.

Capone shares a telling anecdote: a candidate who, after an interview, sent a 40-page document to develop an idea discussed during the call.

“What distinguishes people is hunger.”

The sector is more selective, yet also more professional. The impulsive hiring of the 2021 cycle has given way to a logic of efficiency and sustainability.

Crypto Market: Cycles and Human Psychology

In the market, Capone avoids making predictions, but notes a historical constant: it’s not just the price that is cyclical — human behavior is as well.

“Every cycle tells the same story. Hype at the top, panic at the bottom.”

According to him, bear markets are the times to study and build skills, not to chase the price.

The “Bitcoin is dead” narrative continues to resurface with every correction, despite a fifteen-year history of resilience.

A Maturing Sector

The interview portrays a more mature crypto sector compared to the past:

more critical audience

more structured brands

more selective hiring

less improvised marketing

The era of blind enthusiasm gives way to professionalization.

For those entering today, the opportunities remain vast — but they require real skills, strategic vision, and adaptability.

As Capone summarizes:

“This is the right time to study. Not when the market explodes.”

Animoca Brands is one of the most influential entities in the global Web3 landscape, with over 600 investments in projects related to blockchain, gaming, DeFi, and digital ownership.

In this exclusive interview, the Cryptonomist team spoke with a company representative to delve into investment strategy, vision on the metaverse, NFTs, and the role of utility tokens in the upcoming market cycle.

Watch the full interview: https://youtu.be/CQRib8hCutA

How Animoca Selects Projects to Invest In

Animoca Brands describes its mission as “reimagining the economies of the future”. Each investment is evaluated based on a central question: is the project creating a new digital economy that is more efficient, scalable, and sustainable?

The company primarily focuses on the founder’s vision. In early-stage projects, the team is often more important than the product itself. It’s crucial to understand:

why the founder is building that project

whether there is a genuine mission or just opportunism

deep understanding of tokenomics and blockchain

A fundamental requirement is the project’s crypto-native nature. Animoca avoids companies that “add Web3 for fashion”. The blockchain must offer a structural advantage, not just marketing.

AI is not a category, it’s a standard

According to Animoca, artificial intelligence should no longer be viewed as a standalone vertical. AI will become a competitive standard for all companies.

Companies that combine AI and token economy have a strategic advantage: they can build scalable systems with integrated economic incentives. For this reason, Animoca is keenly interested in mass consumer products that integrate AI, gaming, entertainment, and digital infrastructures.

The Cultural Issue of Digital Ownership

One of the key topics of the interview is digital ownership.

The main issue, according to Animoca, is not technological but cultural: many people do not understand the concept of ownership due to a lack of financial education. Without ownership, there is no capitalism, value exchange, or wealth accumulation.

In Asian countries, where the historical memory of property loss is more recent, crypto adoption is faster. In Europe and partly in the United States, property is taken for granted — and thus undervalued.

Crypto and blockchain bring the concept of individual sovereignty back to the forefront of the economic system.

NFT: status symbol of digital wealth

NFTs are not dead — they are maturing.

Animoca compares them to the art market: their value increases alongside the wealth of the audience that collects them. Today, NFTs represent status symbols of the new crypto elite.

Even though volumes are not at the peaks of 2021, the NFT market still moves approximately 300 million dollars per month. Billionaire collectors continue to purchase rare digital assets as a sign of belonging to a community.

As long as wealth in the crypto sector grows, the symbolic value of NFTs will also increase.

The Metaverse is Already Here

According to Animoca, the metaverse hasn’t disappeared: it has simply changed its name.

We already live in virtual spaces:

video games like Roblox and Minecraft

social network

call Zoom

shared digital environments

The difference is that today we do not own these spaces. The true Web3 metaverse introduces digital property rights.

The decline in media coverage of the term is primarily linked to Meta’s (formerly Facebook) communication strategy, not to a failure of the concept.

The Future: The Year of Utility Tokens

Animoca believes that the next cycle will not be a generic “alt season,” but rather a natural selection of projects with real utility.

The comparison is with the stock market: you don’t buy everything, you choose solid companies. The same applies to tokens.

Meme coins will continue to exist, but the market will shift towards:

tangible utility

real adoption

measurable value

sustainable ecosystems

Animoca aims to build and finance precisely these projects.

In conclusion, the company announced its goal of a public listing by the end of the year through a merger with Currency — a move that could mark a new phase of maturation for the entire Web3 sector.

Full interview here: https://youtu.be/CQRib8hCutA

One of the most common mistakes among cryptocurrency holders in Italy is thinking that “they won’t notice anyway.” According to Stefano Capaccioli, this belief is not only wrong but increasingly dangerous.

During the Instagram live, a very clear picture emerged: the financial administration already possesses a significant amount of information on taxpayers’ crypto activities.

The Illusion of Invisibility

Over the years, many users have opted not to declare anything, relying on the technical complexity of cryptocurrencies or the presumed inability of the State to track transactions.

This strategy, besides being risky, overlooks a fundamental fact: a large portion of crypto transactions goes through centralized exchanges subject to reporting and identification requirements.

The Role of the OAM Database

The Organismo degli Agenti e dei Mediatori (OAM) has established a database where information transmitted by exchanges registered in Italy is collected. This data includes:

customer identifiers,

documents,

inflow and outflow movements,

crypto-to-crypto trades,

end-of-quarter balances.

According to Capaccioli, this information has already been used by the Guardia di Finanza to initiate requests for clarification from taxpayers who had not filled out the RW form.

Not Just Large Fortunes

Another common misconception is to think that the checks only concern large investors. In reality, the audits have also involved individuals with relatively modest amounts, in the range of 10,000 or 15,000 euros.

This is because the year-end data may represent only a part of the overall picture: high transaction volumes, even if not visible in the final snapshot, can emerge from intermediate flows.

Other Informative Sources

In addition to the OAM, Capaccioli noted that some exchanges have reported transactions within the informational flows typical of the tax withholding declarations. In some cases, taxpayers have discovered crypto movements already present in their tax accounts, without being aware of it.

This cross-referencing of data makes the notion of a crypto “invisible” to the tax authorities increasingly less credible.

Delaying Costs More

A key message that emerged from the interview is simple: postponing the problem doesn’t eliminate it, but makes it more costly. The assessment period can extend to four or five years, with penalties and interest accumulating over time.

In an already complex regulatory environment, the only rational strategy remains the conscious and documented management of one’s crypto activities, even in the presence of unclear rules.

Amelia Tomasicchio

Editor in Chief and co-founder at The Cryptonomist

Twitter: @ametomasicchio

Follow me on Linkedin!

Nashville, TN, USA — February 3, 2026 — The Bitcoin 2026 Conference, the world’s premier annual gathering dedicated exclusively to Bitcoin, recently announced the first confirmed speakers for its 2026 edition, marking the beginning of a multi-month rollout of additional speaker announcements leading up to the event. Taking place April 27–29, 2026, at The Venetian Convention and Expo Center in Las Vegas, the conference has already surpassed 30,000 registered attendees and is on track to welcome more than 40,000 participants this April. As the event continues to scale, its programming is expanding accordingly — introducing new stages, tailored content tracks, and dedicated experiences designed to serve the full spectrum of attendees, from first-time participants to industry leaders, builders, and policymakers.

Headline Speakers Set to Lead Dialogues Shaping Bitcoin’s Future

The first wave of confirmed speakers highlights a mix of visionary industry leaders and historic new voices engaging with Bitcoin’s global evolution:

Michael Saylor — Founder & Executive Chairman, Strategy. One of Bitcoin’s most prominent evangelists and advocates, Saylor has shaped institutional adoption narratives worldwide.

Paul S. Atkins — Chairman, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and the first serving SEC Chair to speak at a Bitcoin Conference, representing a historic moment at the intersection of regulation and digital asset policy.

Mike Selig — Chairman, Commodity Futures Trading Commission and longtime contributor to digital asset regulatory frameworks, bringing insight into futures, markets, and policy.

These three form the early core of a roster that already includes 100+ confirmed speakers spanning technical, financial, governance, and cultural domains.

“Bitcoin 2026 reflects how far this conference — and the Bitcoin ecosystem itself — has evolved. With tens of thousands of attendees already registered, expanded stages, and a redesigned experience, we’re building an event that meets people wherever they are in their Bitcoin journey while continuing to push the conversation forward globally.” – Justin Doochin, Head of Events at BTC Inc.

Fully Redesigned Programming — Tailored to Every Type of Bitcoiner

Bitcoin 2026 features a fully redesigned programming structure with multiple stages aligned to different interests and experience levels. Whether you’re a builder, educator, investor, policymaker, or curious newcomer, there’s a purposeful path into the conversations that matter most.

To help attendees tailor their experience, the Conference is promoting a playful and insightful quiz — “What Type of Bitcoiner Are You?” — created in partnership with Bitcoin Magazine.

The 15 Types Of Bitcoiners You’ll Definitely See At Bitcoin 2026

As Bitcoin rolls into 2026, the ecosystem keeps growing – and so does the cast of characters. Here are the 15 personas you’ll absolutely encounter at Bitcoin 2026, whether you’re there to build, stack, meme, or argue about corporate balance sheets.Read More

Six Stages, 100+ Hours of Programming

Over the course of three days and across six dynamically curated stages, Bitcoin 2026 will deliver an expanded slate of sessions:

Nakamoto Stage

Genesis Stage

Energy Stage

Open Source Stage

Enterprise Stage

Deep Stage

This expanded footprint enables deeper dives into specialized tracks — from technical Bitcoin development and energy innovation to enterprise adoption and cultural discourse.

Beyond Stages — Side Events, Culture, and Community Experiences

Bitcoin 2026 isn’t just a conference — it’s a full cultural moment. Alongside the main programming will be an array of side events, meetups, cultural activations, and social experiences that bring the broader Bitcoin ecosystem to life. Highlights include:

Compute Village — New to the Bitcoin Conference, this hub connects builders, miners, developers, and infrastructure leaders to collaborate on power-dense compute and energy.

Women of Bitcoin Bash — An evening celebration spotlighting women driving the Bitcoin movement.

Bitcoin for Corporations Symposium — A focused forum for enterprise, finance, and institutional dialogue.

Bitcoin Art Gallery — curated by BMAG — A showcase of artistic expression inspired by Bitcoin, hosted in partnership with Bitcoin Magazine’s museum initiative. Visit: https://museum.b.tc/

Explore all cultural and experiential programming on the official experience page:
https://2026.b.tc/experience

About The Bitcoin Conference
The Bitcoin Conference, organised by BTC Media, the parent company of Bitcoin Magazine, is a global event series, featuring notable industry speakers, workshops, exhibitions, and entertainment. These events serve as vital platforms for Bitcoin industry leaders, developers, investors, and enthusiasts to gather, network, and exchange ideas. Bitcoin 2026 is being held in Las Vegas in April 2026. Its international events include Bitcoin Hong Kong (August 27-28, 2026), Bitcoin Amsterdam (November 5-6, 2026) and Bitcoin MENA (Abu Dhabi, December 2026).

SPONSORED POST*

Davos, Switzerland – February 4, 2026 – Amid the snow-capped peaks and high-stakes talks of World Economic Forum week, DavosWeb3 returned for its second year on January 21, hosting an intimate roundtable at the Financial Times House. This wasn’t your typical conference think focused chats over coffee, with top builders and investors diving into the real challenges and opportunities at the blockchain-AI crossroads. The result? A fresh take on ethical tech development, capped by the Davos Declaration’s call for principles like collaboration and sustainability.

The lineup featured voices from across the ecosystem, each bringing grounded insights to the table. Adeola Adedewe of Kredete highlighted the power of Web3 in emerging markets, saying, “We are turning routine remittances into a powerful credit-building engine to solve a $360 billion credit gap for millions of Africans.” Aly Madhavji from Blockchain Founders Fund pointed to the sector’s growth, noting, “The industry is now building the infrastructure capable of handling massive volume and providing essential global financial services.”

Dr. Jonathan Chang of the 0G Foundation envisioned a more participatory model: “In the ownership economy, users function as co-founders rather than just consumers.” Kenny Li from Manta Network called out industry pitfalls, stating, “Continuing to build base-level infrastructure has become a futile effort in an oversaturated market.” Jeffrey Schwartz of Dentity stressed the human element in tech, explaining, “Meaningful interactions require counterparty trust to ensure security between participants.”

Sandy Carter of Unstoppable Domains captured the mainstream shift: “Crypto innovators like Ripple are now sponsoring the ‘USA Today’ house right alongside traditional titans like Pfizer and Microsoft.” Wrapping things up, Yat Siu from Animoca Brands looked ahead, declaring, “The Gamification of Finance is not a trend, but the native language of a new generation.”

These perspectives underscored a maturing space, one focused on longevity, inclusion, and impact. As co-organizers Ajeet Khurana and Ronak Shah (Founder of DroomDroom) noted, Web3’s place in Davos signals its move from fringe to foundational. The event’s coalition Manta Network, 0G Foundation, Blockchain Founders Fund, Unstoppable Domains, Kredete, Dentity, and Animoca Brands left attendees with a clear sense that the future is about building with purpose.

About DavosWeb3

DavosWeb3 gathers Web3’s sharpest minds each year in Davos for straightforward, impactful discussions on decentralized tech. 

Check out davosweb3.com or @DavosWeb3 on X for more.

Media contact: info@davosweb3.com

*This article was paid for. Cryptonomist did not write the article or test the platform.

The crypto exchange sector is entering a new phase of maturity, where financial education, artificial intelligence, and infrastructural security become key factors for growth. In an exclusive interview, Vivien Lin, Chief Product Officer and Head of BingX Labs, shared the strategic vision of BingX, one of the most active platforms in the field of copy trading and AI innovation applied to trading.

Copy trading: from niche to gateway for retail

BingX was among the first crypto exchanges to bring copy trading to a large scale. According to Lin, this model played a crucial role in lowering the entry barriers for new users.

In the past, it was necessary to explain to traders what copy trading was, but today the retail audience is much more aware of their risk profile. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are now perceived as mainstream assets, which has made the educational process more sophisticated.

The current goal of BingX is not only to facilitate copy trading but to enhance the quality of leading traders. For this purpose, an Elite Trader Program has been created, which trains master traders on:

risk management

advanced use of leverage tools

take profit and stop loss

asset analysis

quantitative strategies

This allows followers to replicate more structured and professional strategies.

Platform link: https://bingxdao.com/invite/KBHQWX/

Crypto Education: No Less Important, But Different

Lin is clear: education in crypto is not declining, it’s evolving.

Today, the focus is no longer on explaining basic concepts, but on helping users understand new narratives such as:

AI integration + trading

convergence between crypto and traditional finance

asset tokenization

stock tokens and digital commodities

The goal is to provide users with cognitive tools to make informed decisions, not just to operate technically.

The $300 Million AI Strategy

One of the key points of the interview is BingX’s substantial investment in artificial intelligence.

In 2025, the company launched an AI strategy accompanied by a $300 million fund, aimed at:

development of proprietary AI models

AI-friendly backend restructuring

AI integration in trading systems

strategic partnerships

research on AI + blockchain

Among the innovations already active:

BingX Bingo
An AI assistant in the style of ChatGPT that analyzes the user’s portfolio and provides personalized advice.

AI Master
System based on over 5,000 backtested quantitative strategies, classified into 16 investment styles, presented as “virtual traders” with different risk profiles.

In the future, AI will be integrated everywhere: chart analysis, automatic news recaps, and real-time decision support.

Security: the true competitive differentiator

BingX places a strong emphasis on user trust.

The platform uses:

multi-level wallet system (hot + cold storage)

segregation of corporate/user assets

user protection fund of $150 million

real-time AI monitoring against manipulations

This allows for the blocking of malicious activities within seconds, before they can cause real damage.

The Challenge: Bridging Crypto Natives and TradFi Users

The market is splitting between:

crypto native users (airdrop, DeFi, yield, fast UX)

TradFi users (liquidity, low spreads, stability)

BingX is striving to serve both without losing its identity.

Among the ongoing projects:

expansion of regulated fiat services

integrated access to on-chain products

introduction to stock tokens and digital commodities

weekend liquidity improvement

increasingly “all-in-one” apps

Despite the growth, the team intentionally remains lean, with a strong focus on the real priorities of the community.

2-3 Year Outlook

According to Lin, the future of exchanges will be defined by:

AI integrated into decision-making processes

crypto + traditional finance convergence

Simplified UX for retail

security as a non-negotiable standard

ongoing financial education

BingX aims to position itself as a bridge between these worlds.

Watch the full interview:
https://youtu.be/bAgYup1Hay4

In a move that tightens the link between prediction platforms and DeFi, polymarket crypto markets are adding ultra-short-term trading windows for retail and pro users alike.

Polymarket launches new 5-minute crypto markets

Polymarket has gone live with new 5-minute crypto markets, offering traders rapid-fire event resolution and tighter feedback loops on price movements. However, these shorter windows still rely on robust infrastructure to avoid data gaps and manipulation risks during volatile sessions.

The platform is positioning these fast crypto markets as a complement to its existing short-duration products rather than a replacement. Moreover, the new design targets users who want high-frequency exposure to digital assets without leaving the prediction environment.

Expansion of Polymarket’s 15-minute markets model

The launch builds directly on the earlier success of Polymarket fifteen minute markets, which established demand for rapid settlement intervals in crypto-focused prediction trading. That said, the new 5-minute format compresses both risk and opportunity into even tighter timeframes.

According to the team, this latest update maintains the same core mechanics as the 15-minute markets while increasing the cadence of outcomes. Moreover, it preserves the familiar interface, helping existing users shift between durations without a steep learning curve.

Role of Chainlink in securing fast markets

Both the 5-minute and 15-minute products are secured by Chainlink, using chainlink data streams to feed real-time price information into the protocol. However, these feeds are not limited to a handful of pairs; the system spans hundreds of crypto pairs across major trading venues.

This integration shows how data streams chainlink technology can underpin latency-sensitive applications where seconds matter. Moreover, it reduces reliance on centralized data providers, aligning with the broader decentralization goals of the Web3 ecosystem.

Infrastructure behind ultra-short-term prediction trading

The new five minute markets underline how high-frequency prediction products depend on reliable oracles and robust settlement logic. In practice, that means ensuring that market outcomes reflect accurate on-chain references rather than delayed or stale feeds.

By leaning on an oracle backed trading model, Polymarket can resolve outcomes quickly without sacrificing data integrity. Moreover, this approach is crucial when users are entering and exiting positions in rapid succession, as mispricing can compound within minutes.

Implications for on-chain markets and Web3

The addition of short-duration products underscores a broader trend toward onchain prediction markets that mirror the tempo of traditional high-frequency venues. That said, the on-chain environment still emphasizes transparency and open access over opaque internal matching systems.

For Chainlink, the collaboration reflects a chainlink data streams expansion web3 defi use case that goes beyond simple price feeds. Moreover, it highlights how oracle networks can serve as foundational infrastructure for more complex financial primitives.

Fast data for fast markets

The tagline “Fast markets Fast data” captures the synergy between Polymarket’s product design and its oracle stack. In this context, polymarket crypto markets serve as a live testbed for how real-time infrastructure supports increasingly granular trading horizons.

As more platforms seek to offer sub-hourly settlement in 2024 and beyond, the Polymarket and Chainlink integration may become a template for emerging products. Moreover, the combination of ultra-short durations, robust oracles, and broad asset coverage could define a new standard for prediction-focused trading.

In summary, Polymarket’s new 5-minute products extend its short-term offering while leaning heavily on Chainlink’s high-speed oracle stack, potentially reshaping how traders approach rapid crypto event markets.

Meta is weighing a major new feature for its Meta smart glasses, testing how far consumers and regulators will accept embedded facial analysis in public spaces.

Meta’s ‘Name Tag’ facial recognition feature

According to a report from The New York Times, Meta is preparing to add facial recognition to its Ray-Ban smart glasses as soon as this year. Internally, the feature is known as Name Tag and would let wearers identify people around them and access information about those individuals.

Moreover, the data would surface through Meta’s AI assistant, expanding the current range of meta ai smart glasses capabilities beyond translation, photography and search. The system is designed to work hands-free, which makes it more powerful but also more sensitive from a civil liberties perspective.

However, Meta’s plans are not final. The company could still delay or substantially alter Name Tag, the report notes, as internal teams continue to debate how to deploy a tool that carries acknowledged smart glasses privacy risks.

Safety, privacy and ethical debates inside Meta

Meta has been deliberating since early last year on whether and how to release Name Tag. Internal documents reportedly describe clear facial recognition ethical concerns, centering on the risk of harassment, stalking, misidentification and the loss of anonymity in public spaces.

That said, the company did sketch an initial cautious rollout. An internal memo shows Meta first planned to release Name Tag to attendees at a conference for the visually impaired before making the tool broadly available. The company ultimately did not follow through on that limited launch, illustrating how sensitive facial recognition meta glasses remain even for assistive uses.

Furthermore, privacy advocates have long warned that facial recognition glasses could normalize constant surveillance. Real-time identification in public, combined with detailed social and behavioral data in Meta’s systems, could create profiles far more intrusive than traditional smartphone-based tracking.

Political timing and strategic considerations

The New York Times reports that Meta also factored the political climate in the United States into its decision-making. The company reportedly viewed the current period of political tumult as a relatively favorable moment to push out the feature.

In one striking line, an internal document notes: “We will launch during a dynamic political environment where many civil society groups that we would expect to attack us would have their resources focused on other concerns.” However, this candid assessment highlights Meta’s awareness that the rollout will almost certainly be controversial.

Moreover, the NYT reports that Meta has revived these plans as the Trump administration has grown closer to big tech, potentially lowering regulatory pressure. The analysis suggests that meta release political timing could be as important as technical readiness in determining when Name Tag appears on consumer devices.

From earlier hesitation to renewed ambition

Meta previously considered adding facial recognition technology to the first version of its Ray-Ban smart glasses back in 2021. At that time, it dropped the idea over technical challenges and ethical questions, according to the report. The decision reflected strong backlash against earlier deployments of similar tools in social media and law enforcement.

However, the landscape for meta ray ban smart glasses has changed since 2021. The unexpected commercial success of Meta’s current smart glasses, combined with the rapid mainstreaming of AI assistants, has apparently strengthened internal arguments for reintroducing identity-based features.

In practice, that would mean meta smart glasses for facial recognition could shift from a shelved experiment to a flagship capability. Yet the company still faces the same fundamental concerns that led it to pull back three years ago, including transparency, consent and data retention.

What Name Tag could mean for AI wearables

If Meta proceeds, Name Tag would mark one of the most aggressive uses of on-device computer vision in a mainstream consumer product. It would also sharply differentiate Meta’s hardware from rivals that have so far avoided live, person-identifying features in public settings.

Moreover, the integration of Name Tag into Meta’s AI assistant would extend the list of meta ai assistant features from general search and content generation into persistent recognition of individuals. This creates powerful accessibility possibilities but also raises questions about bias in recognition models and how errors will be handled in real time.

That said, Meta has not disclosed any meta smart glasses price changes tied to Name Tag, and the company has not publicly committed to a release date beyond the indication that it could arrive as soon as this year. Any such launch in 2024 or 2025 would likely attract intense regulatory interest in the United States and Europe.

Outlook

In summary, Meta’s revived push to add facial recognition to its ray ban smart glasses places the company back at the center of a long-running debate over surveillance and anonymity. Whether Name Tag actually ships in its current form will depend on internal risk calculations, political scrutiny and how far users are willing to trade privacy for convenience.

A failed home invasion targeting a senior exchange executive in France has intensified debate around binance france and the growing physical risks tied to digital assets.

Armed intruders target Binance executive in Val-de-Marne

Local police said that three masked men, reportedly armed, forced their way into a residential building in Val-de-Marne in the early hours of Feb. 12. According to initial reports, the suspects were searching for the local head of Binance France but failed to locate him inside the property.

However, before leaving the scene, the intruders allegedly stole two mobile phones. The incident came amid rising concerns over violent attacks linked to crypto wealth in France, particularly around high-profile executives and entrepreneurs.

Second botched break-in in Vaucresson the same morning

Roughly two hours later, and still before midday, the same group is believed to have attempted a second home invasion in Vaucresson. Moreover, investigators said the attackers were again looking for the same crypto entrepreneur, although they reportedly targeted the wrong address this time.

The double attempt underscored the level of planning involved, yet also highlighted critical mistakes by the assailants, including flawed intelligence on the victim’s exact residence. That said, no physical harm to the targeted executive has been reported so far.

Lyon Perrache arrests after phone tracing and CCTV review

Police traced the stolen phones and reviewed surveillance footage from the surrounding area to follow the suspects’ movements. Using this digital trail, officers tracked the group as they boarded a train heading to Lyon, marking a key breakthrough in the rapidly evolving case.

The three men were arrested by the BRI at Lyon Perrache station later that same day and placed in custody, according to French outlet RTL. However, authorities have not yet disclosed their identities or detailed potential charges, as the investigation remains ongoing.

Binance response and investigation confidentiality

In a statement, a Binance spokesperson confirmed the incident while emphasizing the need for discretion. “We are aware of a home break-in involving one of our employees,” the spokesperson said, stressing that the company would not comment further at this stage.

Moreover, the exchange cited the need to protect the integrity of the investigation and ensure the safety of all individuals involved. The remarks reflect heightened sensitivity around security for crypto executives, particularly in jurisdictions that have documented physical attacks tied to digital wealth.

Rising wrench attacks in France linked to crypto holdings

France has seen a sustained rise in so-called wrench attacks in France, a term used when assailants apply physical force or threats to coerce access to crypto wallets or other digital assets. These incidents often target individuals believed to hold large amounts of cryptocurrency.

The Block’s coverage throughout 2025 documented repeated kidnappings, ransom attempts and home invasions affecting crypto holders and entrepreneurs. However, authorities have struggled to fully deter such crimes, as attackers blend traditional violent methods with modern financial targets.

Kidnappings and crypto ransom attempts under scrutiny

In June 2025, France recorded its 10th crypto-related wrench attack of the year after kidnappers targeted a 23-year-old near Paris. That said, law enforcement has intensified efforts to trace and dismantle groups behind these schemes, often working across multiple jurisdictions.

Suspects accused of demanding millions in ransom from relatives of crypto entrepreneurs have been arrested in separate cases. Moreover, another group linked to a botched crypto ransom attempt involving the kidnapping of a magistrate was also taken into custody, underscoring the evolving risks surrounding digital-asset wealth.

Broader implications for crypto security in France

The attempted binance france home invasion adds to a growing dossier of incidents that highlight the real-world dangers accompanying virtual assets. While hacking and online fraud remain central concerns, physical attacks are increasingly drawing attention from both regulators and industry leaders.

However, the case also illustrates how traditional police techniques, such as phone tracing and CCTV analysis, can still prove effective against criminals targeting crypto holders. As France continues to grapple with these hybrid threats, exchanges, entrepreneurs and investors may face mounting pressure to upgrade personal and household security.

Overall, the failed attacks near Paris and the swift Lyon Perrache arrests reinforce how the expanding crypto sector can intersect with old forms of violent crime, pushing security to the forefront for high-profile market participants.

In a move that underscores its push into data-driven logistics, FedEx hedera collaboration is being framed as a strategic step toward smarter, more transparent global trade.

FedEx joins Hedera Council to shape digital supply chain standards

On February 13, 2026, FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) announced it is joining the Hedera Council, the governance body behind the public Hedera network. The Memphis-based logistics giant aims to help build trusted digital infrastructure that supports the full lifecycle of global shipments and modernizes supply chain operations.

Moreover, FedEx is positioning this move as part of its long-term plan to make global commerce operate at the speed of data rather than paper or physical checkpoints. As supply chains become more digitally integrated, trusted data infrastructure is expected to underpin automation, real-time visibility, and continuous compliance across complex international trade environments.

However, the company also stresses the importance of maintaining strong governance and risk controls as digital processes expand. By joining a council of leading global organizations, FedEx seeks to balance innovation with robust oversight in increasingly data-intensive logistics networks.

Hedera technology and enterprise-grade trust layer

Hedera operates a public, enterprise-grade distributed ledger technology (DLT) platform designed for high-volume, mission-critical applications. Its network provides a governed trust and notarization layer that supports interoperable, multi-platform digital ecosystems while allowing enterprises to keep sensitive operational data within their own environments.

That said, the architecture is built to support organizations that require both transparency and confidentiality. Enterprises can notarize events or transactions on Hedera while retaining full control of underlying data in their private systems, which is crucial for regulated industries and global logistics providers like FedEx.

In practical terms, this model can help reduce friction in cross-border trade by enabling secure, shared data verification among multiple parties. Moreover, it can support standardized proofs of shipment status, customs documentation, and compliance checks without exposing proprietary operational data.

FedEx role and objectives within Hedera Council

Through its role on the Hedera Council, FedEx plans to contribute operational expertise and architectural insight to support open, cooperative approaches to distributed infrastructure. The focus is on enabling the long-term digital evolution of global supply chains, including more resilient and transparent logistics networks.

Among its stated goals, FedEx aims to help advance trusted digital infrastructure for the future of global supply chains and reduce friction in cross-border commerce. Furthermore, by supporting secure shared data verification across organizations and jurisdictions, the company hopes to improve reliability and reduce manual reconciliation.

In this context, the fedex hedera partnership is expected to test new ways of verifying shipment and trade data at scale, leveraging Hedera’s consensus and timestamping capabilities. Over time, such initiatives could support industry-wide frameworks for verifiable logistics data that multiple stakeholders can trust.

Executive statements on digital supply chain transformation

“The digital transformation of global supply chains is inevitable,” said Vishal Talwar, executive vice president, chief digital and information officer of FedEx Corp., and president of FedEx Dataworks. “As supply chains become increasingly digital-native, trusted data must be shared and verified across many parties without increasing risk or centralizing control.”

Talwar added that Hedera provides a neutral, enterprise-grade trust layer that enables verification at global scale while letting organizations like FedEx build differentiated capabilities on top. Moreover, this model aligns with FedEx strategy of combining its physical logistics network with advanced data and analytics platforms.

“We are proud to welcome FedEx to the Council,” said Tom Sylvester, president of Hedera Council. “FedEx brings deep operational insight into global logistics and commerce, and their perspective will be valuable as the industry transitions toward digitally native supply chains.”

Sylvester emphasized that the collaboration aims to advance trusted, interoperable data verification supporting collaboration across industries and jurisdictions. That said, he also highlighted the importance of decentralized, collusion-resistant governance in maintaining the integrity of the Hedera network as adoption grows.

Governance, node operations and council structure

As a Council member, FedEx will operate a node on the Hedera network and hold equal voting rights alongside other organizations. This means the company will participate directly in the governance of Hedera software and services, including decisions on core network upgrades and policy changes.

Moreover, FedEx joins a globally distributed governing body that includes Fortune 500 firms, banks, web3 innovators, and leading universities. Council members run network nodes and approve core updates, helping to maintain the security and integrity of the Hedera network under a decentralized, multi-stakeholder model.

This governance approach seeks to ensure decentralized, collusion-resistant oversight while supporting an enterprise-grade public network. However, the council structure is also designed to deliver predictable, transparent decision-making, which is critical for institutions building long-term applications on Hedera.

About FedEx Corp.

FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services to customers and enterprises worldwide. With annual revenue of $90 billion, the company offers integrated business solutions built on a flexible, efficient, and intelligent global network.

Consistently ranked among the world’s most admired and trusted employers, FedEx employs more than 500,000 people. Moreover, the company emphasizes safety, high ethical and professional standards, and strong engagement with customers and communities across its operating regions.

FedEx is committed to connecting people and possibilities globally in a responsible and resourceful way. The company has set a goal to achieve carbon-neutral operations by 2040, reflecting increasing pressure on logistics and transportation providers to decarbonize. Further details are available at fedex.com/about.

About Hedera Council

The Hedera Council is a globally distributed governing body composed of major organizations across industries and regions. Its members include Fortune 500 companies, financial institutions, web3 innovators, and top universities, all collectively governing the Hedera network.

Council participants run network nodes and approve core software updates, maintaining the security and integrity of the platform. Moreover, this trusted governance model differentiates Hedera as an enterprise-focused public network designed for scalable, secure, and transparent applications in sectors such as finance, supply chain, and digital identity.

In summary, the FedEx move to join the Hedera Council underscores growing convergence between global logistics and distributed ledger technologies, as enterprises seek trusted, interoperable data infrastructures for next-generation supply chains.

Russian authorities are rethinking digital currency policy, with a russian stablecoin now under consideration amid rising crypto usage and mounting sanctions pressure.

Bank of Russia reopens debate on fiat-pegged stablecoins

The Bank of Russia will reassess its conservative stance on fiat-linked tokens and examine the feasibility of issuing a domestic stablecoin in 2026. The initiative marks a notable shift for the regulator, which has long opposed such instruments, even as other jurisdictions moved ahead with their own national stable assets.

The plan was outlined by First Deputy Chairman Vladimir Chistyukhin during a conference hosted by Alfa-Bank, Russia’s largest private bank. He acknowledged that, until now, the central bank has rejected proposals for a national stable asset, preferring strict controls over digital money and favoring the development of a digital ruble.

However, Chistyukhin signaled that the regulator is ready to take a fresh look at the issue. Speaking at the Alfa Talk event, held under the banner “Digital Financial Assets: New Market Architecture” and quoted by TASS, he said the central bank would analyze foreign experience before making a final decision.

“We plan to conduct a study this year to reassess the situation,” Chistyukhin said. “Indeed, our traditional position is that this is not allowed but taking into account the practices of a number of foreign countries, we will reassess the risks and prospects here and will also submit this for public discussion.” Moreover, the study is expected to frame options for possible issuance and market integration.

From blanket opposition to regulated crypto markets

The new stance follows a broader transformation in Russia’s approach to cryptocurrencies. For years, the main financial regulator pushed back strongly against open circulation of digital assets, arguing that private coins threatened financial stability. Instead, it focused on promoting a central bank digital currency, the digital ruble.

However, in 2025 the central bank began softening its position. First, it launched an experimental regime for crypto transactions, allowing limited pilot operations. Then, last spring, it permitted investments in crypto derivatives, signaling a willingness to integrate digital assets into the financial system under tight supervision.

Towards the end of December, regulators unveiled a new conceptual framework for comprehensive crypto regulation. The policy paper envisages recognizing decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, as well as various stablecoins, as “monetary assets” under Russian law. That said, the framework also seeks to channel activity through licensed entities.

Under the proposed rules, residents would gain broader access to these instruments, including business use cases. Although the Russian ruble is expected to remain the only legal tender, authorities plan to license platforms such as digital asset exchanges. As a result, new crypto-related services would appear in the domestic market, creating formal channels for trading and settlement.

Sanctions environment accelerates domestic stablecoin debate

The renewed interest in a potential russian stablecoin comes as Western governments intensify pressure on Russian crypto transactions. Sanctions authorities are increasingly targeting intermediaries and jurisdictions suspected of helping Moscow route payments outside the traditional banking system.

The upcoming 20th sanctions package under discussion in the European Union places particular emphasis on curbing Russia-linked digital asset flows. In addition, the measures are designed to hit third countries and institutions believed to be assisting Moscow in bypassing restrictions on its financial movements.

For example, the EU is preparing sanctions against two banks in Kyrgyzstan accused of processing crypto-related transfers for Russian clients. Moreover, Brussels is expanding its watchlist to include platforms and service providers associated with ruble-linked digital tokens used in cross-border deals.

Rise of A7A5 and Kyrgyz infrastructure

One major focus for Western regulators is the A7A5 token, a ruble-referenced stable asset with infrastructure outside Russia. The Central Asian state of Kyrgyzstan hosts the issuer of the ruble-pegged coin, which has quickly become a systemically important instrument for cross-border settlement.

The token is issued by Old Vector, a Kyrgyz-registered company, while the project itself was created by the Russian firm A7. This structure has placed the ecosystem and its infrastructure in the crosshairs of Western sanctions, even as Russian users seek alternatives to traditional payment rails.

Launched in early 2025, A7A5 has reportedly processed transactions worth over $100 billion in its first year of operation. According to DeFiLlama, its capitalization now exceeds $500 million, making it the largest non-dollar stablecoin currently on the market. However, this rapid growth has heightened official scrutiny both inside and outside Russia.

Despite the absence of dedicated stablecoin legislation, Moscow’s financial authorities moved in September to categorize A7A5 as a “digital financial asset.” That classification allows Russian companies to use it for international settlements, effectively embedding the token into corporate payment flows. Platforms linked to A7A5 have already been sanctioned by the EU, the U.S. and the U.K., underscoring the geopolitical sensitivity around ruble-linked crypto.

Domestic crypto activity surges despite constraints

While foreign-based instruments draw international attention, onshore crypto activity in Russia is also expanding quickly. The Ministry of Finance recently disclosed that daily crypto turnover by Russian participants has reached 50 billion rubles, or nearly $650 million. Moreover, officials suggest that actual volumes could be even higher when unreported trades are considered.

Usage is no longer limited to sophisticated traders or large corporates. Crypto has been spreading among ordinary Russians as well, who face increasingly tight restrictions on traditional financial channels because of the war in Ukraine. As foreign banks close accounts and new controls on fiat movements appear at home, digital assets offer an alternative route for savings and transfers.

Within this changing environment, a russian stablecoin backed or overseen by the Bank of Russia could serve multiple policy goals. It might give regulators greater visibility over flows that currently move through less transparent instruments, while still enabling international settlements and domestic payments under sanctions. However, any design would have to balance compliance, usability and geopolitical risk.

Outlook for Russia’s stablecoin policy

The forthcoming bank of russia study on fiat-backed tokens is expected to weigh these trade-offs in detail. A key question will be whether a domestically issued asset can compete with private projects like A7A5, which already enjoy significant liquidity and cross-border reach. Another issue will be how to align any new coin with existing digital ruble plans.

Russia’s evolving regulatory concept for digital currencies suggests that the authorities are unlikely to ignore market demand for long. However, the timing, structure and legal status of any new instrument remain open. Policymakers will need to integrate sanctions compliance, international partnerships and domestic financial stability into a coherent strategy.

In summary, Moscow’s reconsideration of stablecoin policy reflects both external pressure and internal market growth. Whether through tighter control of existing tokens or the launch of a new national instrument, Russia appears set to deepen its engagement with crypto-based monetary assets in the coming years.

According to a recent survey conducted by YouGov for XTB, the investment landscape in Italy is marked by significant caution and widespread distrust towards financial markets. The most striking finding from the study is that 75% of Italians have not made any investments in the past year.

This result depicts a country still far from a modern financial culture, where managing savings through investment tools remains a rarely practiced option.

The research, conducted on a representative sample of 1,036 adults between October 9 and 10, 2025, highlights how the lack of capital and the fear of losing money are the main obstacles hindering access to investments.

41% of respondents indicate they do not have sufficient initial capital, while 28% admit to being held back by the fear of seeing their savings vanish.

The Reasons Behind the Decision Not to Invest

Fear, Uncertainty, and Risk Perception

Data analysis highlights how the emotional component plays a central role in the financial decisions of Italians. The fear of losing money is one of the most significant barriers, indicating a very high perception of risk.

It is no coincidence that 24% of respondents state they would start investing only in the event of a significant windfall, such as a lottery win or an inheritance, while 16% would do so only if there was a salary increase or the arrival of extra income. In other words, many Italians consider their economic situation too fragile to afford taking risks.

Distrust in the System and Preference for the Traditional

Beyond economic and psychological barriers, there is a deep-seated distrust towards financial system players. 15% of non-investors state they do not trust brokers and financial institutions, while 12% view investing as akin to gambling.

This negative perception also translates into a preference for more traditional solutions: 20% of Italians prefer to keep their savings in savings accounts or invest in real estate, and 5% even choose the classic “under the mattress” option.

A Group of Unyielding

Of particular note is the presence of a group of “diehards”: 26% of non-investors state that nothing could convince them to change their minds. This data indicates a deep disaffection towards financial markets, which goes beyond the mere lack of information or capital and represents a real challenge for those involved in financial education.

Informational Leverage and Consulting: An Untapped Potential

Despite the overall landscape being dominated by fears and distrust, the research also identifies a significant portion of citizens who could potentially be activated.

10% of non-investors say they would be willing to change their attitude if they had access to clearer and more transparent information, while 9% could be persuaded by reliable advice from a trusted person. These data highlight the importance of informational clarity and quality consultancy as tools to bring Italians closer to the world of investments.

The Role of Fintech: The XTB Case

A Platform to Democratize Investment

In this scenario, entities like XTB aim to break down traditional barriers to accessing financial markets. Founded in Poland in 2004, XTB is a global fintech company offering online investment services through an innovative platform and a mobile app. With over 1.6 million clients worldwide, XTB allows trading of more than 10,700 financial instruments, including stocks, ETFs, CFDs on currencies, commodities, indices, and cryptocurrencies.

New Tools and Financial Education

Recently, XTB launched the Investment Plans product, which allows users to diversify their portfolios with ETFs and offers competitive interest rates on uninvested funds. The platform also provides advanced tools for market analysis and educational material to enhance investors’ skills, along with multilingual customer support available 24 hours a day, five days a week.

Regulation and International Presence

XTB shares are listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the company is regulated by international authorities. The presence of offices in various European countries, including Italy, the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, and France, demonstrates the intention to bring an increasingly wider audience closer to the world of digital investments.

A Future to Build: Education and Trust

The snapshot taken by the YouGov research for XTB reveals an Italy still hesitant to invest, hindered by fears, distrust, and a very high perception of risk. However, there is also a segment of the population that could be engaged through better information and more transparent and reliable advice. The challenge for the financial sector and fintech companies like XTB will be to build trust, promote financial education, and make investment tools accessible and understandable for everyone.

Only in this way will it be possible to transform wealth management into a lever for personal and collective growth, overcoming that “cultural lag” that still today separates many Italians from the opportunities offered by financial markets.

While crypto markets remain defensive, the Ethereum price is attempting a short-term rebound inside a broader downtrend that still dominates the bigger picture.

ETH/USDT daily chart with EMA20, EMA50 and volume”
loading=”lazy” />ETH/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Market Thesis: Heavy Daily Downtrend vs Intraday Relief

Ethereum price against USDT is trading around $1,960, deep inside a mature downtrend. The key point right now: the daily structure is clearly bearish, but short-term timeframes are trying to stage a rebound. This is classic bear-market action — violent countertrend bounces inside a broader down-leg.

This moment matters because the daily chart is now oversold while macro crypto sentiment is at Extreme Fear (9) and BTC dominance is high at about 56.6%. In other words, the market is defensive, capital is hiding in Bitcoin and stablecoins, and Ethereum is being de-risked. The big question: does this oversold backdrop trigger a tradable mean-reversion rally, or is it just a pause before another leg lower?

Daily Timeframe (D1): Dominant Bias is Bearish

On the daily chart, the bias is unambiguously bearish. Trend, momentum, and volatility all line up to show a market that has been under steady selling pressure, now approaching exhaustion but not yet showing a proper trend reversal.

EMAs (Trend Structure)

Daily price is at $1,962, well below all key moving averages:

EMA 20: $2,291.05

EMA 50: $2,651.67

EMA 200: $3,088.74

All three EMAs are stacked bearishly above price, with a wide gap from the 200-day. This is a mature downtrend where rallies have plenty of overhead resistance. It tells you the path of least resistance is still down, and any bounce into the 20-day EMA would be a test of the sellers resolve rather than proof of a new bull leg.

RSI (Momentum)

RSI 14 (Daily): 29.62

Daily RSI has slipped below 30, which means the move is now technically oversold. This aligns with how washed-out the chart looks. In practical terms, it often precedes a bounce or consolidation. However, in a strong downtrend oversold can stay oversold longer than people expect. So the bears are in control, but they are getting extended.

MACD (Trend Momentum)

MACD Line: -269.62  |  Signal: -254.44  |  Histogram: -15.18

The MACD line is below the signal, deep in negative territory, with a small negative histogram. The trend downside momentum is still there, but the histogram being relatively modest suggests the selling impulse may be slowing rather than accelerating. That fits with the idea of a tired downtrend, not a fresh breakdown.

Bollinger Bands (Volatility & Positioning)

Middle Band (20 SMA proxy): $2,340.59  |  Upper: $3,116.33  |  Lower: $1,564.84

Price is trading below the middle band and relatively closer to the lower band, well under the midline at $2,340. The bands themselves are wide, reflecting elevated volatility. Being on the lower half of the bands confirms a pressure zone where sellers have dominated. However, the distance to the lower band also means the immediate crash risk is slightly less acute than if price were pinned to the band.

ATR (Volatility)

ATR 14 (Daily): $206.86

Daily ATR above $200 on a roughly $2,000 asset is sizeable. Swings of around 10% in either direction are on the table in short order. This is not a quiet grind; it is a high-volatility downtrend where both squeezes and flushes can be violent. Position sizing matters here more than usual.

Daily Pivot Levels (Reference Levels)

Daily pivot levels are:

Pivot Point (PP): $1,952.04

R1: $1,979.36

S1: $1,934.82

Ethereum is hovering almost exactly at the daily pivot around $1,952–$1,962. Trading near the pivot after a selloff often indicates a short-term pause or an area where intraday traders are fighting for control. A push and hold above R1 would signal intraday buyers taking the upper hand. A decisive move under S1 would show the downtrend reasserting itself.

1-Hour Chart (H1): Short-Term Relief Rally Inside a Bearish Context

The 1-hour timeframe is trying to stabilize after the dump. The system flags the regime as neutral, which makes sense: we are seeing a short-term bounce but nothing structurally bullish yet.

EMAs (Intraday Trend)

On H1:

Price: $1,960.64

EMA 20: $1,947.95 (price slightly above)

EMA 50: $1,960.17 (price right on it)

EMA 200: $2,046.70 (well above)

Price reclaiming and hovering around the 20- and 50-hour EMAs is a sign of a short-term stabilization or relief rally. However, the 200-hour EMA remains far overhead near $2,047, marking the boundary of the larger downtrend on this timeframe. Intraday bulls have room to push higher without touching the higher-timeframe downtrend line in the sand.

RSI (Intraday Momentum)

RSI 14 (H1): 54.64

Hourly RSI is slightly above neutral, reflecting modest bullish momentum after the prior drop. This looks more like a countertrend bounce than an aggressive new buying cycle. Momentum is improving, but not euphoric.

MACD (Intraday Momentum Shift)

MACD Line: -0.90  |  Signal: -4.59  |  Histogram: 3.69

The MACD line is below zero but has crossed above the signal with a positive histogram. That is a classic short-term bullish cross inside a broader bearish field. Sellers are backing off, and short-term traders are trying to pick the lows. Nevertheless, as long as MACD stays below zero, the bounce is still technically against the dominant trend.

Bollinger Bands (H1 Positioning)

Middle Band: $1,937.70  |  Upper: $1,969.48  |  Lower: $1,905.92

Price is near the upper band at around $1,960–$1,969. That shows the bounce has pushed Ethereum to the top of its recent intraday range. Often, hugging the upper band on the 1-hour can lead to either a continuation grind higher or a fade back to the mean. In a bearish higher-timeframe regime, these upper-band tags tend to be selling opportunities for swing traders.

ATR & Pivot (H1 Micro-Range)

ATR 14 (H1): $16.64

An intraday ATR of around $16 suggests typical 1-hour bars have meaningful range but are manageable compared to the daily swings. For traders, that is enough volatility for opportunity without being totally chaotic.

Hourly pivot levels are:

PP: $1,962.20

R1: $1,967.70

S1: $1,955.14

Price is basically sitting on the hourly pivot and just under R1. Holding above $1,955 and breaking cleanly above $1,968 would cement the intraday bounce. Losing $1,955 and then $1,945–$1,935 opens the door for another downside rotation.

15-Minute Chart (M15): Execution Context

The 15-minute chart is there for timing, not for macro bias. It currently shows a more energetic push higher, in line with the H1 bounce.

EMAs (Micro-Structure)

On M15:

Price: $1,960.65

EMA 20: $1,951.29

EMA 50: $1,946.58

EMA 200: $1,956.66

Price is above all three EMAs, and the shorter EMAs are tilting upward. This is a short-term uptrend inside the broader intraday and daily downtrend. For scalpers and day traders, dips toward the 15-minute 20 EMA are currently being defended. However, this can flip quickly if the higher-timeframe selling resumes.

RSI & MACD (Short-Term Momentum)

RSI 14 (M15): 61.27

RSI on the 15-minute is above 60, reflecting healthy short-term buying pressure. It is not yet at a blow-off level, but you are firmly in bounce mode rather than bottom-fishing.

MACD Line: 5.20  |  Signal: 3.59  |  Histogram: 1.61

The MACD on M15 is positive and above its signal with a green histogram — momentum is plainly up in the very short term. This is the timeframe where the bounce looks the strongest, which is precisely why it is dangerous to extrapolate it without respecting the daily downtrend.

Bollinger Bands & Pivot (M15)

Middle Band: $1,946.82  |  Upper: $1,969.61  |  Lower: $1,924.03

Price is near the upper band again, mirroring the H1 picture. Short-term buyers have pushed ETH to the top of its micro-range. That is often where late longs chase and more patient players start trimming or fading.

15-minute pivot levels:

PP: $1,960.17

R1: $1,963.64

S1: $1,957.18

With price sitting on the 15-minute pivot, micro-structure is finely balanced. A pop through $1,964 could extend toward the Bollinger upper band zone. A break back below $1,957 would hint that the micro-bounce is losing steam.

Broader Market & Sentiment Context

The wider crypto backdrop is not friendly to Ethereum right now:

BTC dominance: ~56.6% — capital is crowding into Bitcoin, not ETH.

Total market cap 24h change: -1.31% — broad risk-off tone.

Fear & Greed Index: 9 (Extreme Fear) — risk appetite is extremely low.

Recent news headlines talk about crypto gloom, ETF outflows from Bitcoin and Ether, and risk-off behavior. That lines up cleanly with what the charts are saying: this is a defensive environment where rallies are being sold, not chased.

Scenarios for Ethereum Price

Main Scenario (Based on D1): Bearish with Oversold Risk of Sharp Bounces

The dominant scenario remains bearish as defined by the daily chart: price well below all major EMAs, negative MACD, and an oversold RSI. The key nuance: we are in the late stage of this down-leg, where sharp countertrend rallies become more likely, but, by default, they are still rallies to sell rather than a new uptrend.

Bullish Scenario

For the bullish case, Ethereum needs to turn this oversold backdrop into a sustained mean-reversion move:

Step 1: Hold above the daily pivot (around $1,952) and build a base above $1,930–1,940. Losing that band cleanly keeps control in bearish hands.

Step 2: Use the intraday strength (H1 and M15 up-momentum) to break and hold above the short-term resistance cluster around $1,980–2,000 (near intraday R1s and upper Bollinger areas).

Step 3: Extend toward the daily 20 EMA around $2,290. That is the first serious test of whether sellers are willing to reload. A strong push toward this level with RSI climbing back toward 45–50 on the daily would mark a genuine corrective rally.

What invalidates the bullish scenario?
If ETH fails to hold above roughly $1,930, and especially if it closes a daily candle well below the daily pivot and S1, the notion of a sustained bounce weakens. A fresh breakdown with daily RSI staying stuck below 30 would show that the market is not ready to mean-revert yet.

Bearish Scenario

The bearish path assumes this intraday bounce is a classic dead-cat rally inside a strong downtrend:

Ethereum price struggles to hold above $1,960–1,980 and fails to reclaim the $2,000 handle with conviction.

Intraday indicators (H1 and M15 RSI/MACD) roll over from their current mildly overbought levels while daily RSI stays oversold, pointing to another leg lower.

Price breaks below $1,930–1,940 support and drives toward the lower daily Bollinger region, with room down toward the mid-$1,600s if selling accelerates again.

What invalidates the bearish scenario?
A decisive reclaim of the $2,050–2,100 area, where the H1 200 EMA currently sits, would be the first serious red flag for bears. If price can push above that zone and daily RSI recovers above 40 with MACD downside momentum fading further, the argument for a simple continuation down becomes much weaker. The real structural win for bulls would be a sustained reclaim of the daily 20 EMA near $2,290; until that happens, the bearish thesis remains structurally intact.

Positioning, Risk, and Uncertainty

Across timeframes, the message is clear: daily is bearish and oversold, while intraday is trying to bounce. That tension is where traders usually get chopped up. They may chase short-term green candles into a bigger downtrend, or short into the hole right before a squeeze.

In an environment with elevated daily ATR, extreme fear sentiment, negative news flow, and ETH sitting well below its key EMAs, position sizing and timeframe discipline matter more than directional conviction. Short-term traders might work with the M15 and H1 uptrend for tactical longs, but they are trading against the daily bias and need to be quick. Swing traders leaning with the daily bear trend will often look to fade strength into resistance zones rather than sell every low.

Nothing on this chart rules out a brutal short squeeze higher or a further capitulation leg lower; both fit inside the current volatility regime. The only thing the market is clearly saying is that we are in a defensive phase for Ethereum, and any exposure should be sized with the understanding that the Ethereum price can move hundreds of dollars in very little time.

The market is caught between deep fear and short-term stabilization as Bitcoin crypto today trades near key pivot levels with volatility still elevated.

BTC/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Daily Timeframe (D1): Macro Bias – Bearish With Early Stabilization Attempts

Daily close: $67,005
Regime: Bearish

Trend Structure – EMAs

• 20-day EMA: $74,578.87
• 50-day EMA: $82,113.95
• 200-day EMA: $94,627.39

Price is trading far below the 20, 50, and 200 EMAs. The entire moving-average stack is above spot, sloping down. That is a classic, well-established downtrend: rallies into the low-70Ks would still be considered bounces within a bearish structure, not a trend reversal. In plain terms, the market has a lot of overhead supply to chew through before bulls can talk about a real recovery.

Momentum – RSI (14)

RSI (14): 31.14

Daily RSI is hovering just above oversold territory. Momentum is still negative, but it is not in full capitulation mode anymore. Sellers have clearly dominated the recent move, yet they are no longer pressing price relentlessly to new lows. That opens the door for a reflexive bounce, but it does not guarantee one. This can sit near 30 for a while in entrenched downtrends.

Momentum – MACD

MACD line: -5,814.24
Signal line: -5,279.06
Histogram: -535.18

The MACD is deeply negative with the line still below the signal. The histogram is also negative, showing bearish momentum remains in place. The good news for bulls is that the histogram’s size suggests the downside impulse is no longer accelerating aggressively. However, we are not seeing a clean bullish cross yet. The trend is still down; the bleeding is just slowing rather than reversing.

Volatility & Range – Bollinger Bands

Middle band: $75,915.57
Upper band: $92,674.33
Lower band: $59,156.81

Price at about $67K is parked in the lower half of the band, well below the midline. The bands are wide after the sharp selloff, confirming we are in a high-volatility environment. Trading this means accepting bigger intraday swings and the risk of sharp squeezes both ways. Being stuck under the middle band reinforces the bearish bias: the market is still living in the lower volatility regime of its recent range.

Volatility – ATR (14)

ATR (14): $5,200.43

A daily ATR over $5K signals very wide average daily ranges. Position sizing is critical here; small leverage can be wiped out quickly. Moreover, for directional traders, this volatility is opportunity, but it also means that stops need more room and you must be prepared for $3–6K swings without overreacting.

Key Daily Levels – Pivot

Pivot point (PP): $66,659.30
First resistance (R1): $67,446.15
First support (S1): $66,218.64

Price is hovering slightly above the daily pivot and just under R1. That tells you today’s session is tilting mildly constructive intraday but still trapped in a tight, indecisive band. As long as BTC holds above the pivot on a daily closing basis, the market is trying to carve out a short-term base. Lose the pivot decisively, and the next leg down opens up.

D1 Takeaway: The main scenario on the daily is bearish. The trend is down, momentum is weak, and volatility is elevated. The only silver lining is that some indicators are no longer accelerating to the downside, which often precedes a relief rally. However, that would be a countertrend move until major EMAs are reclaimed.

Hourly Timeframe (H1): Short-Term Relief Inside a Bear Market

Hourly close: $66,978.24
Regime: Neutral

Trend Structure – EMAs

• 20-hour EMA: $66,570.22
• 50-hour EMA: $67,014.44
• 200-hour EMA: $69,365.69

On the 1H chart, price is sandwiched between the 20 and 50 EMAs and still well below the 200 EMA. That is a short-term neutral to mildly constructive setup within a larger downtrend. The market has stopped trending straight down intraday and is trying to build a sideways-to-up consolidation. However, the 200 EMA near $69K remains a clear cap. Any push there will test how aggressive sellers still are.

Momentum – RSI (14)

RSI (14): 54.42

Hourly RSI has recovered to the middle range. This reflects modest buying pressure after the selloff, but nothing euphoric or overstretched. Dip-buyers have stepped in enough to stop the bleeding on low timeframes, yet there is no strong momentum trend up or down right now. It is more of a rebalancing phase.

Momentum – MACD

MACD line: -84.07
Signal line: -213.37
Histogram: +129.30

The MACD line is still below zero but has crossed above the signal, and the histogram is positive. That is the footprint of a short-term bullish momentum swing inside an overall weak backdrop. Sellers are losing some control intraday, allowing for a corrective move higher or at least a range-bound pause after the aggressive drop.

Volatility & Range – Bollinger Bands

Middle band: $66,246.54
Upper band: $67,225.46
Lower band: $65,267.63

BTC is trading near the upper half of the hourly bands, nudging closer to the upper band. That typically reflects a relief phase where price grinds higher or holds firm after a selloff. Until price starts closing above the upper band repeatedly, this is more consistent with a controlled bounce rather than runaway upside.

Volatility – ATR (14)

ATR (14): $468.04

Hourly ATR around $450–500 points to decent but not extreme intraday ranges. For short-term traders, this is active but tradable volatility. You can structure intraday trades without needing absurdly wide stops, though you still need some breathing room.

Key Hourly Levels – Pivot

Pivot point (PP): $66,959.40
First resistance (R1): $67,118.81
First support (S1): $66,818.84

Price is sitting almost exactly on the hourly pivot. That is the definition of a balance zone: neither bulls nor bears have real intraday dominance at this moment. A sustained push and hold above R1 would confirm the ongoing intraday relief. A failure that drifts back under S1 would signal that sellers are regaining short-term traction.

H1 Takeaway: The hourly chart is neutral-to-mildly-bullish within a macro downtrend. It shows stabilization and a potential bounce phase, but nothing here yet challenges the daily bearish structure.

15-Minute Timeframe (M15): Execution Context – Short-Term Buyers in Control

15m close: $66,986.77
Regime: Neutral

Trend Structure – EMAs

• 20-EMA: $66,634.93
• 50-EMA: $66,499.86
• 200-EMA: $66,970.18

On the 15-minute chart, price is above the 20 and 50 EMAs and roughly in line with the 200 EMA. Short-term, buyers are clearly active and have the micro-trend tilting upward. The fact that price is testing around the 200 EMA shows we are at a decision point for scalpers. Either we continue to build a higher intraday base above it, or we slip back under and return to chop.

Momentum – RSI (14)

RSI (14): 65.67

RSI on the 15m is pushing into the upper range but not yet at extreme levels. Momentum is clearly favoring the upside for now on this timeframe. For very short-term traders, this means chasing here has less edge; the better entries came earlier in the move. For swing traders, this is just noise inside the larger daily downtrend.

Momentum – MACD

MACD line: 163.57
Signal line: 107.51
Histogram: 56.06

The MACD on the 15m is positive and above the signal with a positive histogram. Short-term momentum buyers are in control of the tape right now. This supports the idea of an intraday rally or consolidation at higher levels rather than immediate breakdown, aligning with the hourly picture of short-term relief.

Volatility & Range – Bollinger Bands

Middle band: $66,518.19
Upper band: $67,131.23
Lower band: $65,905.15

Price is hugging the upper half of the 15m bands, close to the upper band. That is what you typically see during intraday up-legs or squeezes. It is constructive for short-term longs, but it also means the market is starting to get crowded in the very near term. Small pullbacks are likely as late buyers pile in.

Volatility – ATR (14)

ATR (14): $230.33

Fifteen-minute ATR a bit above $200 is consistent with actively trading conditions. Short-term swings are meaningful enough to matter for scalps, but not chaotic. It is a workable environment for tactical entries and exits.

Key 15m Levels – Pivot

Pivot point (PP): $66,960.50
First resistance (R1): $67,080.61
First support (S1): $66,866.66

Price is just above the 15m pivot and pressing toward R1. Microstructure favors the long side for the moment: as long as we hold above the pivot, dips are being bought on this timeframe. A clean break below S1 would show the short-term push running out of steam.

M15 Takeaway: Short-term buyers control the very near-term action, but they are trading against a dominant daily downtrend. This is good for tactical plays, not a standalone reason for a long-term bullish stance.

Market Context: Dominance, Sentiment, and DeFi Activity

• Bitcoin dominance: 56.6%
• Total crypto market cap: about $2.37T (down 1.3% over 24h)
• Fear & Greed Index: 9 – Extreme Fear

BTC dominance above 56% tells you capital is hiding in Bitcoin relative to alts, which is classic risk-off behavior inside crypto. Investors are reducing speculative bets and clustering in the perceived safer end of the spectrum, or exiting the market outright. The drop in total market cap and a roughly 9% slump in volume over 24 hours reinforce the idea that new money is not rushing in yet. This is still a defensive tape.

Extreme fear at 9 is rare and tends to cluster around important medium-term inflection points. Historically, such readings have often coincided with late-stage selloffs or accumulation zones for patient capital. That said, extreme fear by itself does not mean the low is in. It means the market is fragile and one more shock can still trigger forced selling.

On the DeFi side, fees on major DEXes like Uniswap V3 and Curve are sharply down on the day and even more so over the week, which points to lower speculative trading and leverage unwinds. The market is de-risking across the stack, not just on centralized exchanges. This reinforces the macro view: speculative appetite is muted, and liquidity is thinner.

Recent news headlines are also leaning negative: a crypto lender (BlockFills) suspending withdrawals, narratives around Bitcoin’s large drawdown and weekend risk, and commentary that the age of speculation may be ending. This kind of news flow tends to accelerate capitulation, but once it is fully priced in, it can also mark the zone where bad news stops pushing price much lower.

Putting It All Together: Conflicting Timeframes, One Dominant Trend

Here is the key tension: the daily trend is clearly bearish, while the hourly and 15-minute charts show a short-term recovery. That is exactly how bear markets breathe. They feature violent legs down followed by sharp but fragile bounces.

The daily EMAs and MACD frame a strong downtrend with heavy overhead resistance.

The hourly MACD and RSI show that sellers are backing off intraday and allowing a relief phase.

The 15m indicators confirm that short-term momentum is up, likely driven by short covering and tactical dip-buying.

Extreme fear and high ATR tell you volatility is high and positioning is stressed, which is fertile ground for both sharp squeezes and further flushes.

The net result: macro bias is bearish, microstructure is stabilizing. Short-term longs may work tactically, but they are swimming against the prevailing current.

Clear Scenarios for Bitcoin Crypto Today

Bullish Scenario

In the bullish case, today’s stabilization near the daily pivot evolves into a more meaningful relief rally.

What supports this:

• Daily RSI near 30 has room to push higher on a mean-reversion bounce.
• Hourly MACD has already flipped positive on the histogram, and 15m momentum is firmly to the upside.
• Price is sitting above intraday pivots (H1 and M15), and short-term EMAs are starting to provide support below spot.

In this scenario, BTC would:

• Hold above the daily pivot at roughly $66.6K and convert that zone into a short-term floor.
• Push through immediate intraday resistances (R1s on 15m and 1h) and challenge the 200-EMA on the hourly around the high-$60Ks to about $69K.
• Potentially extend toward the 20-day EMA in the mid-$70Ks on a stronger squeeze, where heavy supply is likely to show up again.

What would invalidate the bullish scenario:
A decisive break and daily close back under about $66K, especially if accompanied by rising daily volume and a fresh rollover in the hourly MACD. That would indicate the bounce was just short covering and that the dominant downtrend is ready for another leg lower.

Bearish Scenario

The bearish case is that the current relief attempt stalls under nearby resistance and the higher timeframe downtrend reasserts itself.

What supports this:

• Price is far below the 20, 50, and 200 EMAs on the daily, leaving a wide air pocket above that typically attracts selling on rallies.
• Daily MACD remains deeply negative with no confirmed turn, consistent with a prevailing bear trend rather than a bottoming structure.
• Extreme fear, de-risking in DeFi, and negative news flow indicate broader risk-off, which can cap rallies.

In this scenario, BTC would:

• Fail to hold above the hourly and 15m pivots, slipping back below roughly $66.8K and then the daily pivot near $66.6K.
• See the hourly MACD roll back over while RSI fails to push much beyond the mid-50s, signaling that buyers are exhausted even at depressed levels.
• Retest and potentially break the lower daily Bollinger Band region toward the low-$60Ks to high-$50Ks, in line with the band’s lower boundary around about $59K.

What would invalidate the bearish scenario:
A sustained reclaim of the 20-day EMA (mid-$70Ks) with daily closes above it, accompanied by an upturn in the daily MACD, or at least a bullish cross, and RSI moving back into neutral-to-positive territory (40s–50s). That would signal a genuine shift from trend continuation to early trend reversal.

Positioning, Risk, and How to Think About This Tape

For traders and investors looking at Bitcoin crypto today, the message from the chart is not subtle. The path of least resistance on the daily is still down, but we are entering a zone where both sharp squeezes and sharp flushes are on the menu.

Daily ATR above $5K and hourly ATR near $500 mean volatility is elevated across timeframes. Position size and leverage need to be aligned with that reality. In a market with extreme fear and a damaged daily structure, rallies can be fast, and reversals can be brutal.

The multi-timeframe picture gives a simple framework:

• The daily tells you not to trust countertrend euphoria: until major EMAs are reclaimed, bounces are guilty until proven otherwise.
• The hourly and 15m show where the relief legs and intraday opportunities are, but they are operating inside a broader downtrend.

Short-term participants can work with the intraday pivots and EMAs, treating current strength as a tactical window, not as confirmation of a new bull phase. Longer-horizon participants may see extreme fear and heavy discounts from the highs as the early stages of an accumulation window, but the structural risk of lower lows is still on the table.

In this kind of tape, the edge comes less from predicting the exact bottom and more from respecting the volatility, the higher-timeframe trend, and the fact that sentiment is fragile. Until the daily chart repairs itself, Bitcoin remains in a bear-controlled environment with intermittent, tradable bounces, not yet in a confirmed recovery.

In a market dominated by risk aversion, Solana price action around $80 is unfolding against a backdrop of extreme fear and heavy pressure on altcoins.

SOL/USDT daily chart with EMA20, EMA50 and volume”
loading=”lazy” />SOL/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Dominant Scenario from the Daily Chart: Still Bearish

The daily timeframe (D1) defines the main bias, and here the message is clear: the primary scenario is bearish.

Daily close: $80.16

Daily trend regime: bearish

Market backdrop: total market cap down ~1.3% in 24h, extreme fear, BTC dominance high

In plain language, Solana is trading as a weak altcoin in a risk-off crypto tape. Dips can bounce, but the burden of proof is on the bulls to reclaim lost levels. For now, rallies are more likely to be sold than extended.

Daily Indicators: Structure, Momentum, and Volatility

Exponential Moving Averages (EMA20, EMA50, EMA200) – Trend Structure

EMA 20 (short-term): $96.55

EMA 50 (medium-term): $113.71

EMA 200 (long-term): $145.76

Price: $80.16 (well below all three)

The EMAs are stacked in a classic downtrend configuration: price < 20 < 50 < 200. The gap between spot and the 20-day EMA is huge, more than $16, which shows how aggressively price recently detached to the downside. That sort of distance cannot stay that stretched forever. Either the trend continues with grinding lower lows while EMAs catch down, or there is a mean-reversion bounce toward the 20-day.

In practice, $96–100 (around the 20-day EMA and daily Bollinger mid) is now the first serious gravity zone above. As long as SOL is trapped beneath that band, the higher timeframe trend remains firmly against the bulls.

RSI (14) – Oversold but Not Yet Repaired

Daily RSI 14: 27.86

Daily RSI is sitting under 30, firmly in oversold territory. That often signals two things simultaneously: selling has been heavy, and the easy part of the short trade may be behind us. However, oversold alone does not mean bottom. Markets can stay oversold in persistent downtrends.

Right now, this setup says the downtrend is stretched, so countertrend bounces are increasingly likely, but the RSI has not started a convincing rebound yet. Bulls need to push RSI back above the low 30s and then 40+ to argue that momentum is actually turning, not just pausing.

MACD – Bear Momentum Still in Control

MACD line: -12.76

Signal line: -11.63

Histogram: -1.13

MACD is deeply negative, with the line below the signal and a negative histogram. The bearish impulse is not as explosive as it would be with a sharply widening histogram, but the market is clearly still in the bear momentum phase, not yet in a momentum reset.

For a sustainable bullish story, you would want to see the histogram move toward zero and eventually flip positive, ideally while price is reclaiming that $96–100 zone. Until then, the MACD confirms that the daily trend is still down, despite the oversold reading on RSI.

Bollinger Bands – Trading in the Lower Half, Not Free-Fall

Middle band (20-day basis): $99.00

Upper band: $132.92

Lower band: $65.08

Price: $80.16

SOL is trading below the middle band and closer to the lower band, but not pinned to it. That usually signals a controlled downtrend rather than panic liquidation. Price already spent time moving toward the lower band. Now it is hovering above it, suggesting selling pressure has cooled a bit, but the bias remains down.

The space between $80 and the lower band around $65 is important. If price starts riding that lower band again, it opens the door for another leg lower toward the mid-60s. A move back toward the middle band near $99 would be a typical mean-reversion path if buyers step in with conviction.

ATR (14) – Elevated but Not Extreme Volatility

Daily ATR 14: $9.5

Daily ATR around $9.5 on an $80 asset means roughly 12% average daily range. That is elevated, but not absurd for Solana. Volatility is high enough that levels can be tested quickly, but the market is not in a blow-off or capitulation regime. For traders, it means wider stops are needed, and intraday noise can be brutal around key levels.

Daily Pivot Levels – Short-Term Reference Points

Pivot point (PP): $79.37

Resistance 1 (R1): $81.21

Support 1 (S1): $78.32

Price at $80.16 is sitting just above the daily pivot, with R1 nearby at $81.21. That is a very tight range relative to the daily ATR, so you should treat these levels as short-term intraday reference points rather than major structural zones.

Holding above $79–78 keeps the door open for a continued intraday bounce. A firm break below S1 on a closing basis would show that sellers are back pressing the tape, aiming toward the mid-70s or even that lower Bollinger band in the mid-60s over time.

Intraday Picture: 1-Hour and 15-Minute Timeframes

1-Hour (H1) – Attempting a Modest Bounce

Close: $80.18

EMA 20: $79.18

EMA 50: $80.06

EMA 200: $85.31

RSI 14: 57.42

MACD line: -0.12 vs signal -0.40, histogram +0.29

Bollinger mid: $78.57, upper: $80.35, lower: $76.78

ATR 14: $0.8

Pivot: $80.12, R1: $80.48, S1: $79.83

Regime: neutral

On the 1-hour chart, SOL is edging back into a short-term recovery.

Price is trading above the 20-hour EMA and hugging the 50-hour EMA. That combination typically marks a nascent bounce inside a larger downtrend. The 200-hour EMA at $85.31 hangs overhead as the first serious intraday trend barrier. That is where you would expect sellers to lean in if the bounce continues.

RSI around 57 shows intraday momentum has shifted from oversold to mildly bullish. It is not overheated, so there is room for continuation if buyers stay active. MACD on H1 has just turned positive on the histogram with the line curling up toward the signal, early but real evidence of a short-term momentum recovery.

Bollinger Bands on H1 put price near the upper band at $80.35, which often coincides with a local pause or consolidation during a bounce. ATR of $0.8 tells you the average hourly range is modest. The market is not in a violent squeeze but in a controlled rebound.

The intraday pivot around $80.12 is effectively being tested in real time. Holding above that intraday pivot and then above R1 ($80.48) would signal that buyers are gradually gaining the upper hand on short timeframes, at least for a push toward $82–84 where prior supply may sit.

15-Minute (M15) – Short-Term Momentum Favors Bulls

Close: $80.18

EMA 20: $79.40

EMA 50: $79.03

EMA 200: $79.96

RSI 14: 66.45

MACD line: 0.40 vs signal 0.30, histogram +0.10

Bollinger mid: $79.18, upper: $80.53, lower: $77.84

ATR 14: $0.4

Pivot: $80.20, R1: $80.38, S1: $80.00

Regime: neutral

The 15-minute chart is short-term bullish within that bigger bearish context. Price is above all key EMAs, including the 200-period at $79.96, forming a small intraday uptrend. RSI near 66 shows strong, but not extreme, short-term buying pressure.

MACD is positive, and the histogram is slightly above zero, confirming that the microstructure favors the upside right now. Price near the upper 15-minute Bollinger Band and the pivot at $80.20 shows that the market is in a local resistance pocket. Intraday traders will be watching whether SOL can hold $80 on pullbacks. If it does, dips will likely be bought for continuation.

How the Timeframes Fit Together

There is a clear tension between timeframes:

Daily: Strongly bearish trend, oversold momentum, still negative MACD.

1-Hour: Neutral regime shifting toward a short-term bounce, improving MACD, RSI back in the 50s.

15-Minute: Short-term uptrend, momentum bullish, price above all key EMAs.

The most likely interpretation is that the market is in a countertrend rally inside a dominant daily downtrend. Intraday players are leaning long off $79–80, but swing traders will see this as a potential shorting opportunity into resistance zones, unless price can start reclaiming much higher levels.

Solana Price – Bullish Scenario

Given the daily oversold RSI and early signs of stabilization on intraday charts, a bullish mean-reversion scenario is on the table, but it is working against the higher timeframe trend.

What Bulls Want to See

First, SOL needs to defend the $78–80 area, which aligns with the daily pivot and intraday support bands. As long as pullbacks get absorbed above that pocket, the intraday uptrend can mature.

Next, intraday structure would need to push toward and then through the H1 200-EMA around $85.31. A strong move and hold above $85, with H1 RSI staying healthy (50–60+) and MACD firmly positive, would signal that this is not just noise but a genuine short-term trend reversal.

From there, the real battleground is the $96–100 zone, where the daily 20-EMA and Bollinger midline sit. A rally into that region would be a standard mean-reversion target after a severe selloff. If bulls can establish acceptance above $100 on daily closes, meaning not just a wick but sustained trade, the case strengthens for a more durable bottom and a potential medium-term trend shift.

What Would Invalidate the Bullish Case

The bullish rebound thesis weakens quickly if SOL loses $78 on strong volume and starts closing daily candles below that level. In that scenario, the attempted base at $79–80 has failed, and the downtrend is reasserting itself.

From a momentum standpoint, a failure of H1 RSI back under 40 with MACD rolling over from just above zero would show that the bounce has run out of steam. If this happens while price remains well below $85, the market is signaling that sellers are happy to re-engage on relatively shallow rallies.

Solana Price – Bearish Scenario

The higher timeframe already leans bearish, so the question is not whether the trend is down, but whether the downtrend has another leg. The daily EMAs stacked overhead, negative MACD, and market-wide risk-off mood all argue that it does, unless bulls can reclaim lost ground aggressively.

How a Fresh Leg Lower Could Unfold

In the bearish continuation path, the current intraday bounce stalls below the $85 area (H1 200-EMA) or even sooner. Price chops around $80–83, liquidity builds, and once buying interest dries up, sellers push SOL back below the daily pivot and S1 support cluster $79–78.

If daily RSI remains stuck below 35 and MACD stays deep in negative territory, any attempt to rally becomes suspect. A decisive daily close below $78 opens the window toward the lower Bollinger band near $65, which lines up as the next technical magnet during a volatility expansion lower.

In such a move, volatility (ATR) could tick higher, and the market might enter a short, sharp flush, especially with overall sentiment at extreme fear and BTC dominance elevated, which often forces weaker alts to underperform.

What Would Invalidate the Bearish Case

For bears, alarm bells ring if SOL reclaims and holds above $100 on the daily chart. That would mean price has broken back above the 20-day EMA and Bollinger midline, effectively challenging the integrity of the current downtrend.

On top of that, you would want to see daily RSI pushing back above 45–50 and MACD flattening and crossing upward. That combination would show that the previous selloff has fully digested and the path of least resistance is no longer clearly down.

Positioning, Risk, and How to Think About This Tape

Right now, Solana sits in an awkward zone: macro trend is down, micro trend is bouncing. That is precisely the kind of environment where traders get chopped up by overconfidence on either side.

For trend followers, the clean read is that SOL remains in a bearish regime on the daily timeframe. Until the price can trade back above $96–100 and stay there, rallies are structurally countertrend. Short setups against major resistance, like the H1 200-EMA or the daily 20-EMA, will continue to appeal to systematic players.

For mean-reversion and shorter-term traders, oversold daily RSI and improving intraday momentum provide a tactical window to play bounces. However, the key is to respect that the strategy is trading against the larger wave. Tight risk management and clear invalidation levels, such as a break below $78, become non-negotiable.

Volatility is high enough that levels can be overshot in both directions, especially with the entire market sitting in extreme fear and BTC dominance elevated. Expect whipsaws around intraday pivots and be careful extrapolating 15-minute strength into multi-day conviction without confirmation from the daily chart. In short, Solana price is in a bearish regime with a live countertrend bounce, and the next major directional cue will likely come from how price behaves around $78 on the downside and $85–100 on the upside.

The broader crypto market sits in extreme fear as the Ripple price presses against local support, with XRPUSDT trying to stabilize after a prolonged downtrend.

XRP/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Daily Chart (D1): Macro Bias – Bearish, But Near a Potential Support Pocket

The main scenario from the daily chart is bearish. XRPUSDT is in a downtrend, trading under all major moving averages and below the Bollinger midline, with momentum still weak. However, the price is hovering just above the lower Bollinger Band and near the daily pivot, hinting that we are closer to the late phase of the current leg down rather than the middle of it.

Daily EMAs (Trend Structure)

Price (close D1): 1.37 USDT

EMA 20: 1.55 USDT

EMA 50: 1.76 USDT

EMA 200: 2.17 USDT

Price is well below the 20, 50, and 200 EMAs, and those EMAs are stacked in a textbook bearish order. This confirms a mature downtrend on the daily chart. Any bounce toward 1.55–1.76 would currently be a rally into resistance, not a confirmed trend reversal.

Daily RSI (Momentum & Exhaustion)

RSI 14 (D1): 32.9

Daily RSI is below 40 and leaning toward oversold, but not yet at full capitulation. That usually means bearish momentum is still in control, but sellers are no longer early; they are pressing an already extended move. This is where shorting blindly becomes less attractive and where snapback rallies can appear if news or liquidity shifts.

Daily MACD (Trend Momentum)

MACD line: -0.15

Signal line: -0.14

Histogram: -0.01

MACD is negative and almost flat with a tiny negative histogram. The downtrend is losing momentum, not reversing yet. Bears are still in charge, but the strong directional push seen earlier has cooled. This aligns with a market that is drifting lower more than impulsively breaking down.

Daily Bollinger Bands (Volatility & Value Zone)

Middle band: 1.58 USDT

Upper band: 1.99 USDT

Lower band: 1.16 USDT

Price vs Bands: 1.37 is below the mid, well above the lower band

Price is trading in the lower half of the band structure, under the midline at 1.58 but not hugging the lower band at 1.16. That is consistent with a soft grind lower rather than a panic flush. The lower band around 1.16 stands out as a potential line in the sand for deeper capitulation: if XRP slides toward that region, volatility could spike as weak hands exit.

Daily ATR (Range & Volatility)

ATR 14 (D1): 0.14

An average daily range of about 0.14 on a 1.37 asset points to moderate volatility. This is not a volatility blow-off; the market is moving, but it is not in a frenzy. That fits the picture of a controlled downtrend in a fearful macro environment.

Daily Pivot Levels (Reference Support/Resistance)

Pivot point (PP): 1.36

R1: 1.38

S1: 1.35

Price at 1.37 is sitting almost exactly on the daily pivot, wedged between S1 at 1.35 and R1 at 1.38. That tells you the market is undecided at this precise spot. A sustained break under 1.35 would open the door to a fresh downside leg, while holding above 1.38 would be the first small win for intraday bulls within a broader bearish trend.

1-Hour Chart (H1): Short-Term Bias – Neutral Stabilization

On the 1H timeframe, XRPUSDT is transitioning from weakness into a more balanced, sideways posture. The H1 data shows a neutral regime, with price sitting right on top of short-term EMAs and momentum indicators flatlining. This does not flip the daily trend, but it does indicate that selling pressure is pausing here.

H1 EMAs

Price (close H1): 1.37 USDT

EMA 20: 1.37 USDT

EMA 50: 1.37 USDT

EMA 200: 1.42 USDT

Price is glued to the 20 and 50 EMAs, while the 200 EMA sits higher at 1.42. Intraday, that is a range-trading environment under a larger bearish ceiling. Short-term players are balancing buyers and sellers, but any push into the 1.40–1.42 zone will run into structural resistance.

H1 RSI

RSI 14 (H1): 51.39

RSI on the 1H is basically dead-center around 50, indicating no clear intraday edge. The impulsive selling has cooled, and price is catching its breath. From here, either side can take control, so the next push away from this equilibrium will matter for direction.

H1 MACD

MACD line: 0

Signal line: -0.01

Histogram: 0

MACD on the 1H is flat at the zero line with the signal basically matching. Trend momentum is neutral intraday. There is no strong push either up or down; this fits with a consolidating market sitting on the pivot.

H1 Bollinger Bands

Middle band: 1.36 USDT

Upper band: 1.37 USDT

Lower band: 1.35 USDT

Price vs Bands: 1.37, hovering near the upper/mid band area

The bands on 1H are tight, with price near the upper half. This reflects a low-volatility squeeze, where a breakout can follow once one side commits. Given the bearish daily backdrop, upside follow-through needs confirmation; otherwise, these tight bands can just break lower.

H1 ATR & Pivot

ATR 14 (H1): 0.01

Pivot (PP): 1.37

R1/S1 (H1): both calculated near 1.37 in this dataset

An ATR of 0.01 on 1H is very small, indicating quiet tape and thin intraday ranges. Combined with price hugging the pivot at 1.37, this reinforces the idea of a short-term equilibrium zone inside a larger downtrend.

15-Minute Chart (M15): Execution Context – Short-Term Bid Inside a Range

The 15m chart is useful only for timing entries and exits. Here, XRPUSDT shows a slight bullish tilt but still within a tight band.

M15 EMAs

Price (close M15): 1.37 USDT

EMA 20: 1.36 USDT

EMA 50: 1.36 USDT

EMA 200: 1.37 USDT

On 15m, price is fractionally above the 20 and 50 EMAs and roughly in line with the 200 EMA. That is a modest intraday upward bias inside a sideways micro-structure. It is useful for scalpers looking for quick mean-reversion longs, but not evidence of a genuine trend reversal.

M15 RSI

RSI 14 (M15): 58.86

RSI leaning toward 60 on the 15m tells you short-term buyers are a bit more aggressive. This is a local bid, not a macro shift. It does, however, support the idea that pushing below 1.35 immediately might require fresh news or a broader risk-off spike.

M15 MACD & Bollinger Bands

MACD line: 0

Signal: 0

Histogram: 0

Bollinger mid: 1.36 USDT

Upper band: 1.37 USDT

Lower band: 1.35 USDT

MACD is flat and bands are tight with price near the top half, echoing the H1 picture: short-term controlled buying in a compressed volatility box. Any breakout move from here is likely to be fast compared with the current pace.

Putting It Together: Conflicting Timeframes

Daily trend is clearly bearish: price is below all major EMAs, RSI is depressed, and MACD is negative. On the other hand, H1 and M15 are neutral to slightly constructive, with price stabilizing around 1.37, intraday momentum flat, and a modest short-term bid.

This conflict usually resolves in one of two ways:

The higher timeframe reasserts, the daily downtrend resumes, and intraday consolidation breaks lower.

Intraday stabilization grows into a larger bounce, and XRP mean-reverts higher toward the daily EMAs before the market decides on the next big leg.

Given extreme fear across crypto, the market is vulnerable to both a capitulation flush and a sharp short-covering bounce. Positioning needs to respect that binary risk.

Bullish Scenario for Ripple Price (Against USDT)

The constructive path from here is a mean-reversion rally from this consolidation zone. In this context, the ripple price has room for a relief move if key levels hold.

For the bullish scenario:

XRPUSDT needs to hold above the 1.35–1.36 daily pivot/S1 area. That is the immediate floor. Consistent 1H closes above 1.37 would reinforce this view.

On H1, price should stay anchored above the 20/50 EMAs and then start pressing toward the 1.40–1.42 resistance band, where the H1 200 EMA sits.

A decisive break and hold above 1.42 would be the first real signal that the market wants to challenge the daily Bollinger mid at 1.58 and then the EMA 20 at 1.55. That area (1.55–1.60) is the natural first target zone for a relief rally.

Momentum-wise, you would want to see daily RSI climb back above 40–45 and MACD histogram turning positive on lower timeframes, then flattening on D1.

If this plays out, the narrative shifts from controlled downtrend to oversold bounce inside a still-bearish macro structure. The bigger trend would remain down until daily closes reclaim and hold above the EMA 50 (around 1.76). Bulls do not need that for a tradeable relief leg, though.

What invalidates the bullish scenario? A clear, sustained break below 1.35 on the daily close with RSI failing to recover would undercut the idea of an immediate bounce. That would imply the consolidation was just a pause before another push lower, likely toward the lower Bollinger Band region around 1.16.

Bearish Scenario for Ripple Price

The bearish path is a continuation of the existing trend: intraday stabilization fails, and the higher timeframe downtrend resumes. Sellers would then look to press price toward deeper support zones.

For the bearish scenario:

Price loses the 1.35 support with conviction, turning the current pivot zone into resistance instead of support.

H1 RSI rolls back under 45 and MACD on H1 dips more firmly negative, confirming that sellers have retaken control of the short-term tape.

On the daily chart, price drifts or accelerates toward the lower Bollinger Band at 1.16. In an extreme fear environment, a spike into or slightly through that band would fit a capitulation phase.

ATR on D1 could tick higher as ranges expand, signaling a volatility expansion to the downside.

In this scenario, rallies back into 1.36–1.40 are likely to be treated as selling opportunities by trend-followers, at least until the daily structure changes meaningfully and key EMAs are reclaimed.

What invalidates the bearish scenario? A firm reclaim of the 1.42–1.45 zone on a closing basis with intraday EMAs flipping into supportive roles would weaken the continuation case. If daily closes start to stack above the EMA 20 around 1.55, the narrative shifts away from sell the rip and toward a more balanced or even constructive medium-term bias.

Positioning, Risk and Uncertainty

XRPUSDT is currently a bearish-trend, low-volatility, high-fear market. The downtrend is intact on the daily chart, but intraday data shows the first signs of balance and a mild bid at 1.37. That combination often precedes either a final washout or the start of a grinding recovery.

For traders, the key is to recognize that:

The macro bias remains bearish as long as XRP trades under the daily EMAs (1.55 / 1.76 / 2.17).

The tactical battleground right now is the 1.35–1.38 band, where pivots and short-term EMAs cluster.

Extreme fear and compressed intraday volatility mean that when the next move comes, it can be sharper than current ranges imply.

Whether traders lean bullish or bearish, the environment calls for respecting both downside continuation risk and the possibility of a sharp mean-reversion rally. Position sizing, leverage, and stop placement matter more than usual here because the market can move quickly once it chooses a direction out of this consolidation zone.

Markets are in a fragile spot, and Cardano price today reflects a tired but still dominant bearish structure pressing against a key support level.

ADA/USDT daily chart with EMA20, EMA50 and volume”
loading=”lazy” />ADA/USDT — daily chart with candlesticks, EMA20/EMA50 and volume.

Cardano price today: where ADA stands

Cardano (ADA) is trading around $0.26 against USDT today. On the daily chart, ADA is clearly in a broad downtrend, trading well below all key moving averages. However, in the short term, the market is trying to stabilize around this $0.26 area, with intraday timeframes showing a pause, not a reversal, in selling pressure.

This moment matters because it looks like a classic late-stage downtrend: sentiment across crypto is in Extreme Fear (fear & greed index at 9), total market cap is slipping (-1.3% in 24h), and BTC dominance is high around 56.6%. Risk appetite is low, and ADA, as a high beta alt, is feeling it. The key question here is whether $0.26 holds as a base for a bounce, or whether the broader bearish regime simply grinds it lower.

On balance, the main scenario from the daily timeframe is bearish. Lower prices remain the path of least resistance unless buyers can reclaim key levels above $0.29–0.30.

Daily timeframe (D1): macro bias is still bearish

Trend & moving averages (EMA20 / EMA50 / EMA200)
– Price: $0.26
– EMA 20: $0.29
– EMA 50: $0.34
– EMA 200: $0.51

ADA is trading below the 20, 50 and 200-day EMAs, with a wide gap to the 200-day at $0.51. That is a textbook bearish structure, with shorter EMAs stacked under longer ones and price pinned at the bottom.

In plain terms: the trend is down, and any rally toward $0.29–0.34 is, for now, more likely a bounce within a downtrend than the start of a new bull leg.

RSI (14-day): 34.9
RSI is sitting just under 35, below the midpoint but not deeply oversold.

That tells you bears are in control, but the market is not fully washed out yet. There is room for another leg lower before you get the kind of capitulation-style reading that often precedes a bigger bounce.

MACD
– MACD line: -0.03
– Signal line: -0.03
– Histogram: 0

MACD is flat and overlapping the signal line around the same negative value, with essentially no histogram.

This is what trend exhaustion looks like: momentum is still on the bearish side, but the push lower is losing energy. It is more of a slow bleed than an aggressive selloff right now.

Bollinger Bands (20-day)
– Middle band: $0.30
– Upper band: $0.37
– Lower band: $0.22
– Price: $0.26 (below the middle, above the lower band)

ADA is trading in the lower half of the band range, but not hugging the lower band.

That fits the picture of a controlled downtrend rather than panic selling. Sellers are dominant, but they are not dumping at any price. Pressure is consistent, not climactic.

ATR (14-day): $0.02
Average daily range is around two cents at this price level.

Volatility is modest. We are not in a high-volatility capitulation phase. Instead, price is sliding in a relatively orderly fashion. That makes sudden multi-day trend changes less likely without a clear catalyst.

Daily pivot levels
– Pivot point (PP): $0.26
– Resistance 1 (R1): $0.27
– Support 1 (S1): $0.26 (very tight cluster around current price)

With price sitting right on the daily pivot, the market is balanced intraday around this level.

Think of $0.26 as the current battlefield. A sustained break above pushes the very short-term tone slightly constructive. A break and hold below would confirm sellers winning this local fight.

Overall, the daily chart says the dominant trend is down, momentum is weak but not reversing, and $0.26 is a fragile support area within a larger bearish regime.

Hourly timeframe (H1): stabilization, not a trend change

Trend & moving averages (H1)
– Price: $0.26
– EMA 20: $0.26
– EMA 50: $0.26
– EMA 200: $0.27
– Regime: neutral

On the hourly chart, price, EMA20 and EMA50 are all glued around $0.26, with EMA200 just above at $0.27.

This is a classic consolidation after a move down. Sellers are no longer in full control intraday, but bulls have not seized the initiative either. It is a pause inside the larger downtrend.

RSI (H1): 54.3
RSI is slightly above 50.

Intraday, the pressure is marginally skewed toward buyers, but there is no strong momentum. It is more of a dead-cat or range-trading environment than a clear trend reversal.

MACD (H1)
– MACD line: 0
– Signal line: 0
– Histogram: 0

MACD is completely flat on the hourly chart.

The market is in wait-and-see mode. Neither side is committing real size here, which fits with low conviction and low volatility.

Bollinger Bands (H1)
– Middle band: $0.26
– Upper band: $0.27
– Lower band: $0.26

Bands have tightened significantly.

Band compression like this often precedes a volatility expansion. In other words, the next move is likely to be sharper than the recent chop, but direction is still up for grabs.

ATR (H1): ~0
ATR on the hourly is effectively at zero in the data, reflecting extremely tight recent ranges.

Price is coiling. When hourly ATR starts to tick up from these levels, that is usually your hint that a directional move is underway.

15-minute timeframe (M15): short-term bullish bias, but only for execution

Trend & moving averages (M15)
– Price: $0.26
– EMA 20 / 50 / 200: all around $0.26
– Regime: bullish

The 15-minute regime is flagged as bullish, but in reality all EMAs are clustered, similar to the hourly chart.

Microstructure is a bit more supportive of buyers. You likely have a slight upward tilt within a tight range, but this is noise relative to the bearish daily picture. It matters mainly for timing entries and exits, not for defining the main bias.

RSI (M15): 57.2
RSI leans to the upside but is far from extended.

Short-term scalpers are getting better entries on the long side for now, but this can flip quickly if $0.26 gives way.

MACD (M15): flat
MACD line, signal and histogram are all basically zero.

There is no strong intraday follow-through in either direction. This is a holding pattern.

Bollinger Bands & ATR (M15)
– Bands tight around $0.26–0.27
– ATR near zero

The very short-term tape is extremely compressed, which creates good conditions for sudden stop runs in either direction when liquidity thins.

Bullish and bearish scenarios for ADA from here

Dominant bias: Bearish (from the daily chart)
The daily downtrend and positioning below all major EMAs keep the higher-timeframe bias bearish, despite the short-term consolidation.

Bullish scenario for Cardano

For bulls, the game is about turning this consolidation into a base.

Hold $0.26 support on the daily close.

Push back toward $0.29 (EMA20 / Bollinger mid) and reclaim it decisively.

See RSI lift back above 40–45 on the daily and MACD start to curl higher from negative territory.

If buyers manage that, the next upside magnets are:

First, the $0.29–0.30 zone, which is mean reversion to short-term fair value.

Next, a potential extension toward $0.34 (EMA50) if broader market risk appetite improves and crypto moves out of Extreme Fear.

What invalidates the bullish case?
A clean break and daily close below $0.26, especially if RSI rolls back toward 30 and ATR starts to expand, would weaken the bull thesis significantly. That would confirm that this was not a base, just a pause before the next leg lower.

Bearish scenario for Cardano

The bearish scenario aligns with the current regime.

$0.26 fails as support with a decisive move lower.

Daily RSI drifts toward or below 30, and volatility (ATR) kicks up from current subdued levels.

Hourly structure breaks down, with price rejected from the $0.26 pivot and unable to trade back above it.

Under that path, price can rotate toward the lower Bollinger band area around $0.22 on the daily as the next logical downside zone. This would still fit within the broader Cardano price today bearish environment unless higher timeframes flip.

What invalidates the bearish case?
If ADA can not only bounce from $0.26 but also hold above $0.29–0.30 on daily closes, pulling EMA20 flatter and lifting RSI away from the 30s, the argument for a persistent downtrend weakens. A strong reclaim of $0.34 (EMA50) would directly challenge the bearish structure.

Positioning, risk, and how to think about ADA here

This is a classic point in the cycle where longer-term trend and short-term structure disagree. The daily chart says the trend is down, but intraday charts show compression and mild bullish tilt. That tension often resolves in a sharp move once volatility returns.

Key takeaways for traders evaluating ADA today:

Trend vs. bounce: Any upside from here, at least initially, should be treated as a counter-trend move until ADA can reclaim $0.29–0.34 and hold it. The daily EMAs are still overhead and acting as dynamic resistance.

Volatility risk: Very low ATR on intraday timeframes means breakouts can be abrupt when they come. Tight consolidation at the end of a downtrend can deliver either a relief rally or an acceleration lower.

Macro backdrop: Extreme Fear and rising BTC dominance signal a risk-off crypto environment. In those conditions, altcoins like ADA tend to underperform unless there is a strong idiosyncratic catalyst.

In short, Cardano is trading in a market that is tired of selling but not yet willing to buy aggressively. The broader structure is still bearish, and until the daily chart proves otherwise, rallies are guilty until proven innocent. Managing position size, respecting the $0.26 pivot, and being prepared for a volatility expansion in either direction are more important here than trying to call the exact bottom.

Analyst Mike McGlone has sparked new debate by suggesting the USDT stablecoin may one day overtake Bitcoin and Ethereum in overall crypto market influence.

Mike McGlone’s bold forecast on shifting crypto power

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone has argued that the USDT token could ultimately eclipse both Bitcoin and Ethereum in market prominence. His view, shared in recent analysis, is not based on speculative rallies but on long-term structural forces shaping the digital asset industry.

According to McGlone, dollar-pegged digital assets are positioned to capture sustained demand as investors seek safety, liquidity, and easy global access. Moreover, he believes this preference for stability over volatility could gradually shift leadership away from classic crypto assets toward stable-value tokens.

Such an outcome would mark a historic change in a sector where Bitcoin and Ethereum have dominated since at least 2015. For more than a decade, these networks have defined crypto’s narrative around decentralization, scarcity, and innovation. However, if stable-value tokens rise above them, the definition of leadership in digital assets could be rewritten.

Why the USDT stablecoin keeps expanding worldwide

The USDT token is issued by Tether as a dollar-pegged digital asset designed to maintain a one-to-one value with the US dollar. This structure makes it fundamentally different from traditional cryptocurrencies that fluctuate freely in price.

Traders increasingly rely on USDT for day-to-day liquidity. During periods of extreme volatility, they park capital in the token rather than exiting exchanges entirely. Moreover, many trading platforms use it as a primary quote asset, pairing it with a wide range of cryptocurrencies to streamline pricing and settlement.

Cross-border users also lean on USDT to move value quickly across jurisdictions. Instead of depending on slow or expensive banking channels, they send tokenized dollars on-chain. That practical use in daily transactions continues to deepen stablecoin dominance within the crypto economy.

Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, USDT does not depend on price appreciation to remain relevant. Its strength lies in transaction volume, settlement activity, and integration into financial applications. That said, as more participants use it as a transactional currency, its overall footprint naturally grows.

The shift from speculation to stability

For years, Bitcoin has been framed as digital gold, while Ethereum has served as a base layer for smart contracts and decentralized applications. These narratives helped fuel explosive bull markets. However, harsh drawdowns during each cycle have repeatedly highlighted their volatility.

During turbulent phases, investors frequently rotate capital into dollar-pegged tokens like USDT. This move allows them to stay inside the crypto ecosystem while sidestepping sharp price swings. Moreover, institutional players that require predictable settlement values often favor stable pricing over exposure to market risk.

In regions facing local currency instability, demand for digital dollars becomes even more evident. People increasingly use stable-value tokens as substitutes for physical cash or fragile domestic currencies. This behavioral shift supports McGlone’s thesis that structural demand for stability may ultimately outweigh speculative interest.

Could stablecoin dominance really surpass Bitcoin and Ethereum?

As of today, Bitcoin and Ethereum still command higher market capitalizations than the USDT token. However, market leadership in crypto has never been static. Each cycle has introduced new categories, from smart contract platforms to DeFi and non-fungible tokens, proving that hierarchy can change.

If stable tokens continue to capture a rising share of transaction volume and institutional workflows, their capitalization could expand substantially. Moreover, stablecoin dominance in trading pairs and settlement flows already signals growing structural importance beyond speculative phases.

On many days, USDT ranks among the highest traded digital assets by volume worldwide. Its liquidity routinely exceeds that of individual cryptocurrencies, including some large-cap tokens. These patterns show that users treat it less as an investment and more as core transactional infrastructure.

McGlone suggests that if global finance integrates digital dollars more deeply, the usdt stablecoin could become a primary gateway between traditional markets and blockchain-based systems. Governments are actively debating central bank digital currencies, while payment providers explore distributed ledger rails. Stable-value tokens sit at the intersection of these developments.

Crypto market trends reinforcing the stablecoin story

Several broader crypto market trends reinforce the strategic role of stable-value tokens. First, policymakers in multiple jurisdictions are increasingly focusing on frameworks for regulated dollar-pegged assets. This emerging stablecoins regulatory landscape often treats them as more predictable instruments compared with highly volatile tokens.

Regulatory progress, while uneven, tends to support institutions that want controlled exposure to digital assets. As rules clarify reserve management, transparency, and redemption rights, large investors may feel more comfortable using stable tokens for settlement and cash management.

Second, decentralized finance has embedded USDT and other stable-value assets into its core infrastructure. Lending protocols, derivatives platforms, and yield strategies frequently use them as collateral and base currency. Moreover, this integration creates persistent demand that is largely independent of speculative price cycles.

Third, global remittances and cross-border payments remain a powerful driver. Users in developing economies often prioritize instant access to US dollars over exposure to volatile crypto assets. In this context, USDT offers speed, accessibility, and a currency they already recognize. That functional advantage supports long-term adoption curves.

The broader implications for the digital asset economy

McGlone’s analysis highlights a deeper transition underway across digital markets. Crypto is slowly moving beyond its early focus on ideological decentralization and speculative trading. Instead, it is being woven into the fabric of traditional finance, from payments to capital markets infrastructure.

Stable-value tokens act as a practical bridge between these two worlds. They enable dollar-denominated transactions on public blockchains while remaining familiar to institutions and retail users alike. Moreover, their growing share of volume indicates that real-world use cases are gaining ground on pure speculation.

In that sense, stablecoin dominance can be read as a sign of maturation. It suggests that users increasingly prioritize reliability, liquidity, and settlement efficiency. The USDT token, with its entrenched role in trading, DeFi, and remittances, may become a symbol of this next phase in digital finance.

Whether it ultimately overtakes Bitcoin and Ethereum in capitalization remains uncertain. However, the very fact that analysts now entertain this possibility underscores a turning point. Crypto leadership may soon be defined as much by stability and scale as by volatility, scarcity, and visionary technology.

In summary, McGlone’s forecast forces markets to confront an important question: if users continue to favor stable-value infrastructure over volatile assets, the balance of power across digital finance could shift more dramatically than many expect.