The $XLM chart may be approaching the end of a correction that began in 2018. At the moment, there are two primary scenarios that we are tracking.
In the first scenario, the entire move since the 2018 high can be interpreted as a triangle, labeled A B C D E. In this case, the E-wave may currently be unfolding. This E-wave is developing as an A B C structure, with an ideal target zone between 16.3 cents and 7.9 cents. From this region, a fifth wave to the upside could eventually begin. However, this corrective structure can still extend into next year without any issue.
The alternative interpretation is the yellow scenario, in which wave 4 already completed in 2020. In this case, XLM would be unfolding an A B C structure to the upside, with the yellow C-wave developing as a diagonal pattern. At the moment, price would be in the B-wave pullback of the third wave to the upside.
From a microstructure perspective, both scenarios look very similar. The support zone is identical in both cases, and the lower boundary of the triangle can provide additional support. How price reacts in this shared support region will determine which scenario ultimately takes the lead.
$BTC Eliot wave update The price is now in the micro support region for wave B of iv. The structure would still look best with one more extension higher, but a break below $83,180 would start to indicate that wave v to the downside is already unfolding.
Bounce back upwards, clear rejection at $90K and the support couldn't hold as everything corrects; Gold, Nasdaq and $BTC .
New low made, and therefore, a few important things to look at:
- Break back above $88K would be a strong signal and the end of the correction.
- With this breakdown, I'm looking at levels at <$83.8K and most likely <$80.5K.
Especially this latter scenario makes sense in a week of Unemployment Data, CPI and the Bank of Japan.
Given the fact that the Bank of Japan is likely doing a rate hike, the impact has been negative after the rate hike in the past, and therfore likely that it's before the rate hike this time.
Bitcoin has stalled in its downturn but is yet to properly follow this new impulse up in liquidity.
When zooming out, Bitcoin tends to follow this metric quite well. What I assume is causing the big deviation and underperformance here, is that there's still a lot of 4 year cycle selling paired with tax loss harvesting into the end of the year.
Q1 next year is when I think Bitcoin has its first fair chance to show whether it can actually break the old 4 year cycle or not. But until then, we'll have to weather the storm and get through this upcoming period of low liquidity and volume.
The price is forming a triple bottom pattern, which suggests we may see a reversal soon. It's a good time to accumulate some DOT for the mid-term. A breakout from this falling wedge pattern could lead to a significant upward rally. The resistance level to watch is $2.40.