Carita Asbury

Key Takeaways:Bitcoin whales sold 147,000 BTC ($16.5B) over the past 30 days, the fastest outflow of the cycle.Whale selling aligns with technical weakness, as BTC forms a bear flag pattern targeting $100,000.Corporate treasuries and ETFs continue absorbing supply, creating a potential floor.Whales Accelerate Bitcoin SellingBitcoin (BTC) whales — entities holding more than 1,000 BTC — have shed 147,000 BTC over the last month, according to CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno. At current prices, that equates to $16.5 billion in net outflows, marking a 2.7% decline in whale balances and the sharpest monthly drop of the cycle.Moreno noted that the total balance is declining at the fastest pace this year, signaling aggressive distribution by large holders.Fellow CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost added that the selling has been led by long-term holder (LTH) whales, particularly those holding coins for 6–12 months. Since early September, this group has executed more than 10 large transfers, each averaging 8,500 BTC (~$10B in selling pressure).Still, Glassnode data shows relatively low transfer volume from whales directly to exchanges since late August. This suggests coins may be moving to OTC desks, custodians, or institutional buyers rather than flooding spot markets.Institutional Buyers Absorb SupplyWhile whales are offloading, corporate treasuries and ETFs continue to act as net accumulators.Metaplanet (Japan) recently acquired 5,419 BTC, becoming the fifth-largest Bitcoin holder.Michael Saylor’s Strategy added 850 BTC last week, raising its total stash to 639,835 BTC.River reports that corporations now hold more BTC than ETFs, and both groups are accelerating accumulation.This structural demand may soften the impact of whale profit-taking and help maintain a medium-term floor.Technical Outlook: Bear Flag Points to $100KOn the charts, BTC broke below $116,000 on Sept. 22, validating a bear flag pattern on the daily timeframe.BTC has lost support at the 50-day SMA ($114,300) and 100-day SMA ($113,400).Current support lies between $112,000–$110,000. A close below this range could open the door to $100,000, an 11% drop from current levels.The RSI has fallen from 61 to 44, reinforcing bearish momentum.Should BTC extend losses, analysts expect bulls to regroup around $106,000, where buyers could stage a rebound.Bottom LineBitcoin is facing intensifying whale distribution alongside bearish technical signals. Yet, steady demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries suggests the market still has structural support.If the $110,000–$112,000 zone fails, the next major downside target is $100,000, a critical psychological and technical level, according to Cointelegraph.