Nadirnoah

Most people chase hype, but Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) uses a PhD-level engineering approach to find the signal in the noise.
Here is the data-driven framework for identifying the next real bull phase.
🧵👇
I. The Liquidity Foundation
The primary driver of Bitcoin's valuation is not narrative, but global liquidity. Bitcoin acts as a "high-beta" version of the global money supply.
The Signal: A shift from monetary tightening (rising interest rates) to easing (lowering rates/increasing money supply).
The Home Takeaway: True market strength is rarely found in isolation; it is almost always a byproduct of the broader macroeconomic environment.
II. Technical Floor Levels
In an engineering context, a system must find its "ground" before it can build upwards. Cowen identifies several key mathematical averages that serve as this foundation:
200-Week Moving Average (200WMA): Historically the "ultimate" support level for Bitcoin.
The Bull Market Support Band: A combination of the 20-week EMA and 21-week SMA. Reclaiming this band is the primary signal of a trend shift.
Realized Price: The average price at which all coins were last moved, representing the collective "cost basis" of the market.
III. The Dominance Hierarchy
A healthy market cycle follows a specific order of operations. Historically, capital does not flow into all assets at once; it follows a hierarchy of risk:
Bitcoin Dominance Rises: Investors flee risky "altcoins" for the relative safety of BTC.
Stability: Bitcoin establishes a new price floor.
Capital Rotation: Only after Bitcoin is secure does capital flow "down the risk curve" into smaller assets.
IV. The Psychological Reset
The final component of a bullish turn is Capitulation. A true bull market rarely begins when the general public is excited. It begins in the "Depression" or "Apathy" phase of the market cycle, where retail interest is at its lowest and long-term holders are quietly accumulating.

In a recent episode of the podcast series Drops, Florian “Flo”, Commercial Director of Bitpanda Web3, takes us inside the ambitious Vision Chain project. While the US has Coinbase’s “Base”, Europe is now gearing up for its own regulated Ethereum Layer 2 solution.
Here are the key takeaways from the conversation on how Bitpanda plans to bridge traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralized finance (DeFi) in the European market.
From broker to Web3 pioneer
Bitpanda is already known as Europe’s largest crypto broker with over 7.5 million users. But their strategy doesn’t stop there. With Bitpanda Web3, they want to take the next step from a pure broker app to becoming the gateway to the decentralized world.
The goal is not to replace the existing financial system, but to upgrade it. Flo explains this through the concept of the “DeFi Mullet”:
Web2 at the forefront: A user-friendly and secure interface that our mothers can use.
Web3 in the background: Advanced blockchain technology running invisibly in the background to provide better returns and efficiency.
Why does Europe need "Vision Chain"?
One of the most interesting points Flo makes is why Europe needs its own blockchain. The answer lies in the unique regulatory landscape.
Regulation as a competitive advantage: While many see the EU's strict regulations as an obstacle, Flo believes that frameworks like MiCA provide the clarity institutional players need to dare to invest in DeFi.
Euro as fuel: Unlike most other chains that use ETH or dollar-stable coins, Vision Chain will use a Euro-stable coin for transaction fees (gas). This removes the currency risk for European businesses and users.
Security (The Walled Garden): To protect ordinary users from fraud, Bitpanda operates with a "walled garden" philosophy in its DeFi wallet, where applications are curated to avoid "rug pulls".
Vision Token: The Engine of the Ecosystem
At the heart of this is the Vision Token. This is not just a loyalty token, but a ticket to participate in the success of the entire ecosystem. Through an independent Swiss foundation, they have implemented a revenue sharing model, where part of the fees from Web3 products go back to buybacks and "burning" of tokens to benefit holders.
Summary
Bitpanda is trying to do with Vision Chain what Base did for Coinbase in the US, but with a distinctly European twist: Focus on stability, regulation and ease of use. As Flo herself says: "Regulation is not the enemy of innovation - uncertainty is".
Are you ready to take your finances on-chain, or do you prefer the security of the traditional brokerage solution? The Vision project certainly makes it possible for you to choose for yourself.

The Bitcoin market is currently a battlefield of nerves. After the "largest liquidation in history" and a series of failed "buy the dip" opportunities, many traders are left wondering if the bleeding will ever stop. In his latest update, technical analyst Doctor of Pump & Dump highlights a critical shift in the Bitcoin falling price channel and outlines the path toward a potential bottom in March 2026.
The "Bad Day to be Bullish" Continues
The session for February 24 saw Bitcoin down roughly 3.4% at its lows before attempting to form a "bottoming tail". Despite this slight recovery, the overall sentiment remains heavy. The analyst maintains that it is still a "bad day to be bullish" because the daily charts lack a confirmed bullish divergence—a key signal needed to call a definitive bottom.
The New Price Channel and Key Support Levels
The most urgent update in the video is the identification of an expanded falling channel. By redrawing the trend lines from the January 14th peak, a new boundary has emerged that suggests further downside before a real reversal can happen.
Key levels to watch:
The 60,000 Support: While Bitcoin has touched this level, the analyst predicts it will likely be "taken out" to flush out remaining bulls.
The 50,000 - 55,000 "Bottoming Zone": This is where the 300-week moving average (at 50k) and horizontal support (at 49k) reside. A "wick" down to this area is highly probable in early to mid-March.
The 200-Week Moving Average: Currently near 58,000, this acts as a major overhead hurdle if Bitcoin fails to hold above it.
Two Potential Scenarios for March
Using Elliot Wave theory, the video outlines two main paths for Bitcoin's price action:
The Red Count (Triangle Completion): A five-point triangle for wave 4 concludes, followed by a final flush-out (wave 5) into early March.
The Black Count (The "Crash Wave"): A more aggressive "third-of-a-third" wave down, which could be triggered by external factors like Nvidia earnings or geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The Upcoming "Mother of All Short Squeezes"
The silver lining for patient investors is the prospect of a Bear Market Rally. Historically, these rallies see a 50% retracement of the initial crash.
If Bitcoin bottoms in the low $50,000s, the analyst expects a powerful rally back toward $89,000 (the 50% Fibonacci level) or even $97,000 (the 61.8% level). This rally could be fueled by a massive short squeeze as bears become overconfident near the lows.
External Risks: Geopolitics and Macro
Beyond the charts, the video warns of "black swan" events that could accelerate the sell-off:
State of the Union & Tariffs: Potential market-rattling news regarding trade.
Middle East Tensions: Experts suggest potential strikes or disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could cause oil prices to spike, further rattling global markets.
Final Thoughts
The message is clear: Don't buy the hype and "hopium" just yet. The goal for a successful trader is to align with Bitcoin's actual movements rather than fighting the trend. While a bottom is likely forming for a March reversal, the final "liquidation wick" may still be ahead of us.

In the world of cryptocurrency, the mantra "Not your keys, not your coins" has long been a foundational principle. However, as Bitcoin matures into a mainstream asset class, a massive amount of BTC "ownership" is moving away from private wallets and into financial contracts. This is the phenomenon of Paper Bitcoin.
What Exactly is Paper Bitcoin?
Paper Bitcoin refers to any investment that provides exposure to Bitcoin's price without the investor actually holding the underlying asset. Much like "paper gold" dominates the precious metals market through futures and ETFs, paper Bitcoin allows institutions and retail investors to trade price action without managing private keys or on-chain security.
The 5 Main Categories of Paper Bitcoin
According to Coin Bureau's analysis, paper Bitcoin manifests in five primary ways:
Crypto Exchanges: Estimated to hold about 15% of the total supply. While these are meant to be gateways to "real" BTC, history (like Mt. Gox and FTX) shows that exchange balances are often just entries on a private ledger—not necessarily backed 1:1 by on-chain assets.
Bitcoin ETFs: Major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity hold roughly 7% of the total supply. These are regulated funds that track BTC, offering a compliant path for institutional money.
Treasury Companies: Firms like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) hold roughly 5% of the supply. Investors buy shares of the company as a proxy for Bitcoin.
Government Holdings: National stockpiles (from seizures or strategic reserves) account for about 3% of the supply, with the US, China, and the UK leading the way.
Wrapped BTC (DeFi): Tokens like WBTC or cbBTC on other blockchains (like Ethereum) represent BTC held by a custodian, allowing it to be used in decentralized finance.
The Impact on Price: A Double-Edged Sword
Paper Bitcoin has been a massive driver of the recent bull markets, but it brings unique risks:
The Bull Case: It provides massive liquidity and legitimacy. The 2024 bull run to historic highs of $126,000 was largely fueled by the massive inflows into spot ETFs.
The Bear Case: Since paper BTC can be traded without moving the actual coins, critics argue it can lead to "fractional reserve" banking in crypto. If a major custodian is hacked or found to be under-collateralized, it could trigger a systemic collapse.
The Controversy: Transparency and "Proof of Reserves"
A recurring theme in the video is the lack of transparency. Most major paper BTC holders—including Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy—do not publicly disclose their wallet addresses.
This has led to allegations of "rehypothecation"—the practice of using the same Bitcoin as collateral for multiple different loans or products. While Strategy's Michael Saylor has denied these claims, asserting "We buy real Bitcoin... we don't rehypothecate," the refusal to provide on-chain proof continues to fuel skepticism.
The Future: From Paper Back to Digital Gold
The video highlights a promising shift: in July 2024, the SEC approved a mechanism allowing some paper Bitcoin ETF shares to be exchanged 1-to-1 for the physical BTC backing them.
This development could bridge the gap between traditional finance and the "Don't Trust, Verify" ethos of crypto, potentially setting a template for other markets like gold.
Final Thought
While paper Bitcoin is essential for mainstream adoption, it introduces counterparty risk that Bitcoin was originally designed to eliminate. For those who value the core principles of censorship resistance and true ownership, self-custody remains the only way to ensure your Bitcoin is truly yours.

💥On September 17, 2019, the U.S. financial system suffered what experts call a "heart attack." Overnight, the heartbeat of the banking system—the repo rate—exploded from 2.43% to over 10%. Liquidity, the oxygen of finance, simply vanished. While the media dismissed it as a "technical glitch," a new report from the Financial Stability Board (FSB) suggests the root never left. In fact, it grew into a $16 trillion leverage bomb.
What is the Repo Market?
To understand the danger, you have to understand the "Repo" (Repurchase Agreement). Think of it as Wall Street's overnight ATM.
The Trade: A hedge fund or bank has trillions in Treasury bonds but needs cash to pay bills or leverage a new bet.
The Deal: They "pawn" the bond to a lender for cash today and promise to buy it back tomorrow for a tiny bit more.
The Scale: This isn't a side-show; it's the circulatory system of the global economy, processing trillions every single night. If it stops, the entire credit system grinds to a halt.
The Smoking Gun: The FSB Report
A February 2026 report from the Financial Stability Board has revealed a terrifying reality: the government bond-backed repo market has swelled to $16 trillion—a 20% increase in just two years.
But the size isn't the scariest part. It's the "Zero Haircut" phenomenon. In a healthy market, if you borrow $100, you provide $102 in collateral (the $2 is the "haircut" or safety buffer). The FSB found that 70% of non-centrally cleared repo activity now operates with zero haircuts. There is no margin for error. If a bond's value drops even 1%, the lender is immediately underwater.
Three Core Risks to Your Portfolio
Invisible Leverage: Hedge funds are using these zero-haircut loans to "juice" returns, often re-pawning the same dollar 10, 20, or 50 times (rehypothecation). This "invisible" leverage now amounts to nearly $3 trillion.
Liquidity Evaporation: Because these are overnight loans, the borrower must "roll over" the trade every morning. If lenders get scared and stop answering the phone, the borrower must fire-sell assets to get cash, crashing prices and creating a "death loop."
Extreme Concentration: 60% of this $16 trillion risk sits in the United States alone. The intermediaries are a tiny group of massive "dealer banks." If one has a cyber-attack or a glitch, the global system freezes.
History Repeating: From 2008 to 2026
We've seen this movie before. In 2008, Lehman Brothers didn't fail because they lacked capital; they failed because they ran out of cash when the repo market stopped accepting their mortgage-backed securities.
In 2022, the UK Gilt Crisis nearly collapsed British pension funds in just four days due to hidden repo leverage. Today, the U.S. is sitting on a powder keg 10 times larger than the UK crisis, backed by Treasuries that are losing value as interest rates rise.
Warning Signs to Watch
How do you know when the avalanche has started? Watch these three indicators:
The SOFR Rate: If this spikes significantly above the Fed's target, the "gears are grinding."
Standing Repo Facility (SRF) Usage: If banks are running to the Fed for emergency cash (as they did in late 2025), it means they no longer trust each other.
The Basis Trade Unwind: Watch for volatility in the Treasury market, which signals hedge funds are being forced to dump their leveraged bets.
The Bottom Line
The FSB has provided the roadmap for the next crisis. In 2008 it was subprime mortgages; in 2026, it may be the very foundation of the global financial system: government bonds. The leverage is now so high that the system cannot tolerate a correction, likely forcing the Fed to "monetize the debt" and print trillions to keep the lights on.

While much of the Western world views cryptocurrency as a volatile "get-rich-quick" scheme, a quiet revolution is happening across the African continent. From buying bread to paying for monthly subscriptions, millions of people are bypassing traditional banks in favor of stablecoins.
A recent report covering 4,650 individuals across 15 countries reveals a startling trend: Africa is now a global leader in the practical, daily use of digital dollars.
What is a Stablecoin?
For those unfamiliar, a stablecoin is a type of cryptocurrency pegged to a stable asset, most commonly the $USD1 Dollar. Unlike $BTC Bitcoin, which can swing wildly in value, one digital stablecoin is designed to equal one real US dollar. This allows users to store "dollars" directly on their smartphones without needing a US bank account.
The Power Players: Nigeria and South Africa
At the heart of this explosive rise are the continent's two economic giants. However, the reasons for adoption differ in each region:
Nigeria (The Fight Against Inflation): The local currency, the Naira, has suffered from significant devaluation. Instead of hunting for physical dollars at exchange bureaus or on the black market, Nigerians are turning to apps. Today, 62% of Nigerian users use stablecoins for daily expenses, and a staggering 95% say they would prefer to be paid in digital dollars rather than Naira.
South Africa (The War on Fees): In South Africa, the primary driver is the high cost of cross-border payments. Sending $100 to a neighboring country can cost up to $30 in traditional banking fees. Stablecoins allow these transfers to happen almost instantly at a fraction of the cost.
A $300 Billion Market with New Risks
Globally, the stablecoin market is now valued at over $300 billion. While this offers unprecedented financial freedom to individuals, central banks are growing concerned.
Experts warn of "Digital Dollarization"—a phenomenon where people stop using their local currency entirely in favor of digital dollars. This could cause governments to lose control over their national monetary policies and lead to capital leaving countries instantly, bypassing local regulations.
The Bottom Line
The message from the streets of Lagos and Johannesburg is clear: when local currencies feel unstable and traditional banks remain slow or expensive, people will find a better way. For millions of Africans, that "better way" is the digital dollar in their pocket.

Historically known as a research-heavy institution, the NCP has shifted towards industrial and practical applications. This hackathon, supported by international organizations like CERN and the Open Quantum Institute (OQI), signifies Pakistan's emergence as a "rising nation" in the field of quantum technology.
The event wasn't just a local competition; it featured a panel of prestigious judges and mentors from the United States, Switzerland (CERN), UAE, and Algeria.
High Stakes and Intense Innovation
The competition was rigorous, drawing over 1,000 applicants, which was eventually narrowed down to 40+ finalists. These students worked under intense pressure, with many participants staying awake for 72 hours to polish their projects.
Key highlights from the participants and mentors included:
Diverse Applications: Students presented solutions for various national issues, with a strong focus on Quantum Cryptography and Quantum Machine Learning.
Skill Development: Before the physical event, participants were required to complete a mandatory online course to ensure a baseline of expertise in quantum algorithms.
Global Recognition: International mentors expressed profound surprise at the talent level. One researcher from Algeria noted that the quality of solutions was among the best they had seen at any global hackathon.
Empowering the Next Generation
A standout theme of the event was the inclusion and performance of female students. Dr. Shabnam Javeen from the University of Maryland remarked on the confidence and strength shown by "Pakistan's daughters," noting that the country's future is bright when 100% of the population is engaged in such cutting-edge fields [06:06].
The Road Ahead: From Research to Economy
Experts emphasized that this hackathon is a "stepping stone" rather than a one-off event. The ultimate goal is to move beyond theoretical research and tap into the economic benefits of quantum computing, which could revolutionize Pakistan's economy through startups and industrial patents.
Mentors highlighted three pillars for future success:
Sustained Funding: Moving from a "sprint" to a "marathon" in scientific investment.
Infrastructure: Continued access to simulators and high-performance GPUs provided during the event.
Global Connectivity: Overcoming political and geographical barriers to give Pakistani students access to international computing companies.
Conclusion
The First Quantum Computing Hackathon has "sown the seeds" for a technological revolution in Pakistan. As the participants return to their respective universities, they carry with them not just trophies, but the practical experience needed to build the future of Pakistani tech. As one mentor poignantly stated: "You see the seed we grow today; you will see the fruit tomorrow".