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Despite Falling Ethereum Supply on Binance, The Downtrend Continues
The Exchange Reserve (Binance) is decreasing. This means ETH is being withdrawn from the exchange. Under normal circumstances, this decrease in supply would have a positive price effect. However, in the current situation, the price is also falling. This suggests that another, more dominant negative factor is at play. These factors are:
1. Derivative pressure outweighs spot pressure. The reserve represents the spot supply, but in the short term, the futures market determines the price the most. If:
The out-of-the-way (OI) is high,
Funding has turned negative,
The short side is aggressive, even if the spot supply decreases, derivative sales will push the price down. So, there is withdrawal in the spot market, but short pressure in derivatives may be stronger.
2. The withdrawn ETH may be for collateral, not for selling. When ETH is withdrawn from an exchange, it doesn't always mean HODL. It can be withdrawn for many reasons, such as using it as collateral in DeFi, OTC selling,
switching to L2/staking platforms,
transferring to other exchanges. So, Binance's reserves may be falling, but global selling pressure may not have ended
3. Demand is weak. A decrease in supply alone is not enough. If there are no new buyers entering, if stablecoin inflows are weak, and if risk appetite has decreased, even if supply decreases, the price will not react upwards. In this case, a scenario where sellers have decreased but there are no buyers also occurs.
4. Macro/Market Correlation
ETH does not move alone.
If BTC is weak, if DXY is strong,
If risk markets are under pressure,
Even if the reserves give a positive signal, the price may fall due to correlation.
5.Whales loading into derivatives
In some periods, whales may open short positions in derivatives while simultaneously withdrawing from spot markets. In this case, the reserves fall, but the price is suppressed.
In the chart, the reserves have recently been trending downwards again, and the SMAs are weak after a downward crossover. The price is around 2.9K, but there is a loss of momentum. In the short term, if derivative pressure continues, the decrease in reserves will not immediately push the price upwards. The price may first clean up liquidity. Lower support tests may be seen. That would be $1700. $ETH
1. Derivative pressure outweighs spot pressure. The reserve represents the spot supply, but in the short term, the futures market determines the price the most. If:
The out-of-the-way (OI) is high,
Funding has turned negative,
The short side is aggressive, even if the spot supply decreases, derivative sales will push the price down. So, there is withdrawal in the spot market, but short pressure in derivatives may be stronger.
2. The withdrawn ETH may be for collateral, not for selling. When ETH is withdrawn from an exchange, it doesn't always mean HODL. It can be withdrawn for many reasons, such as using it as collateral in DeFi, OTC selling,
switching to L2/staking platforms,
transferring to other exchanges. So, Binance's reserves may be falling, but global selling pressure may not have ended
3. Demand is weak. A decrease in supply alone is not enough. If there are no new buyers entering, if stablecoin inflows are weak, and if risk appetite has decreased, even if supply decreases, the price will not react upwards. In this case, a scenario where sellers have decreased but there are no buyers also occurs.
4. Macro/Market Correlation
ETH does not move alone.
If BTC is weak, if DXY is strong,
If risk markets are under pressure,
Even if the reserves give a positive signal, the price may fall due to correlation.
5.Whales loading into derivatives
In some periods, whales may open short positions in derivatives while simultaneously withdrawing from spot markets. In this case, the reserves fall, but the price is suppressed.
In the chart, the reserves have recently been trending downwards again, and the SMAs are weak after a downward crossover. The price is around 2.9K, but there is a loss of momentum. In the short term, if derivative pressure continues, the decrease in reserves will not immediately push the price upwards. The price may first clean up liquidity. Lower support tests may be seen. That would be $1700. $ETH
Will a Short Explosion Operation Happen in Bitcoin?
The Bitcoin price has fallen sharply to the 66.5K region. The funding rate is at -0.0012 and below, and there are even sharp negative spikes momentarily. This means the market is aggressively pushing for short positions. Negative funding means short positions are paying off long positions, indicating a high concentration of shorts in the market. Psychologically, this shows that investors believe the decline will continue. A fear and hedging mode has been adopted. Leveraged short accumulation is occurring.
When negative funding and a sharp price drop occur together, it generally prepares the ground for a potential short squeeze. If the selling momentum weakens, a small short cleanup may occur. Because squeezed short positions will have to close at some point. This could come from the $58,000 support level.
Since Binance is the exchange with the highest derivatives volume, a large portion of the leveraged positions that truly affect the price are opened there. Therefore, it is useful to consider this chart. Because Binance is the backbone of the crypto market, imbalances occurring there generally put pressure on the price. $BTC
The Bitcoin price has fallen sharply to the 66.5K region. The funding rate is at -0.0012 and below, and there are even sharp negative spikes momentarily. This means the market is aggressively pushing for short positions. Negative funding means short positions are paying off long positions, indicating a high concentration of shorts in the market. Psychologically, this shows that investors believe the decline will continue. A fear and hedging mode has been adopted. Leveraged short accumulation is occurring.
When negative funding and a sharp price drop occur together, it generally prepares the ground for a potential short squeeze. If the selling momentum weakens, a small short cleanup may occur. Because squeezed short positions will have to close at some point. This could come from the $58,000 support level.
Since Binance is the exchange with the highest derivatives volume, a large portion of the leveraged positions that truly affect the price are opened there. Therefore, it is useful to consider this chart. Because Binance is the backbone of the crypto market, imbalances occurring there generally put pressure on the price. $BTC
XRP is approaching $1.2, a very strong reversal zone. I think a rebound rally could come from this support. If the decline continues afterwards, we'll buy back around $0.5. $XRP
ASTER is at a significant resistance level, and I believe the downward movement will continue to $0.3 in the medium term. This movement will begin unless there is a daily close above the resistance. $ASTER
XRP whales are waiting to sell.2
There are a few important periods in the chart. I want to talk about them first.
In the March-April period, Whale flow is very low and the price reacts weakly. Then, in July, a sharp rise occurs. Whales are not selling, the supply is tightened, and then an upward explosion occurs.
In the June-July period, the first rise begins when the ratio is at its bottom. As the rise occurs, profit taking begins. Flow explodes in the peak region.
December-January The ratio is again very low. The price continues to fall. It is noteworthy that the sales are not from whales, but from small investors
In the current chart, Whale to Exchange Flow also appears close to its historical low band. The price has fallen sharply to the $1.42 band. But this decline is not accompanied by continuous whale selling. Panic selling comes mostly from small investors. Whales are exhibiting opportunistic behavior. Considering past movements, the expectation is that the price will show a downward trend in the short term. Volatility will decrease. Then,
Sudden but low-volume upward wicks may appear. Whale selling may start during the first real rise, and the decline may deepen.
If there is an additional dump from macroeconomic or BTC sources, the price may wick down a bit further. However, this decline is not expected to be supported by whale selling. Tracking the Binance chart is crucial for this metric because liquidity, depth, and institutional concentration are all evident on this exchange. Binance has the highest spot and derivatives volume and the deepest order book for XRP, making it a primary trading area for whales and institutions. In other words, while other exchanges are used for transfers, sometimes just wallet movements, the money that truly drives the price is on Binance. On other exchanges, liquidity is low, making it difficult to clearly discern selling intent. However, on Binance, if a whale is sending XRP to Binance, it means they are considering selling. In short, the Binance Whale Exchange Flow metric measures action, not expectation. The Binance chart acts like a leading indicator, capturing behavior before the price action. $XRP
In the March-April period, Whale flow is very low and the price reacts weakly. Then, in July, a sharp rise occurs. Whales are not selling, the supply is tightened, and then an upward explosion occurs.
In the June-July period, the first rise begins when the ratio is at its bottom. As the rise occurs, profit taking begins. Flow explodes in the peak region.
December-January The ratio is again very low. The price continues to fall. It is noteworthy that the sales are not from whales, but from small investors
In the current chart, Whale to Exchange Flow also appears close to its historical low band. The price has fallen sharply to the $1.42 band. But this decline is not accompanied by continuous whale selling. Panic selling comes mostly from small investors. Whales are exhibiting opportunistic behavior. Considering past movements, the expectation is that the price will show a downward trend in the short term. Volatility will decrease. Then,
Sudden but low-volume upward wicks may appear. Whale selling may start during the first real rise, and the decline may deepen.
If there is an additional dump from macroeconomic or BTC sources, the price may wick down a bit further. However, this decline is not expected to be supported by whale selling. Tracking the Binance chart is crucial for this metric because liquidity, depth, and institutional concentration are all evident on this exchange. Binance has the highest spot and derivatives volume and the deepest order book for XRP, making it a primary trading area for whales and institutions. In other words, while other exchanges are used for transfers, sometimes just wallet movements, the money that truly drives the price is on Binance. On other exchanges, liquidity is low, making it difficult to clearly discern selling intent. However, on Binance, if a whale is sending XRP to Binance, it means they are considering selling. In short, the Binance Whale Exchange Flow metric measures action, not expectation. The Binance chart acts like a leading indicator, capturing behavior before the price action. $XRP
SUI, like every #altcoin, continues its downtrend. In the short term, $SUI could fall by another 50% from its current price, dropping to $0.5.
Chainlink, awaiting ETF approval, has fallen below $10. I believe this decline could continue to $5.5 and then to $1.3. $LINK
One of the most frequently asked about coins is $LTC
I think it will gradually drop to $32 in the medium term.
I think it will gradually drop to $32 in the medium term.
Ethereum Shows Signs of a Bear Season
I believe it's important to monitor the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (Binance), especially during downtrends. This metric measures action, not expectation. Binance exchange has the highest spot and derivatives liquidity and can be considered the main hub for institutional and whale transactions. Therefore, a large portion of the price movements of large investors occur here. The Taker Ratio can be misleading on smaller exchanges. In short, the Binance Taker Ratio reveals the true price pressure.
In the chart, the Ethereum Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is below 1 (approximately 0.94). This ratio indicates that the selling side is dominant in market orders. Buyers are waiting with limit orders, while sellers have already started to act.
The short and medium-term averages of the SMA(30) and SMA(50) are also below 1. There is no sharp upward breakout. This shows that selling is in a continuous pattern.
With this data, even if the ETH price goes up, every rise will be met with selling. There is a downward trend. Sales are aggressive, purchases are passive; we are experiencing a real bear season. It's not hard to say that this situation will continue for some time. $ETH
I believe it's important to monitor the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (Binance), especially during downtrends. This metric measures action, not expectation. Binance exchange has the highest spot and derivatives liquidity and can be considered the main hub for institutional and whale transactions. Therefore, a large portion of the price movements of large investors occur here. The Taker Ratio can be misleading on smaller exchanges. In short, the Binance Taker Ratio reveals the true price pressure.
In the chart, the Ethereum Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is below 1 (approximately 0.94). This ratio indicates that the selling side is dominant in market orders. Buyers are waiting with limit orders, while sellers have already started to act.
The short and medium-term averages of the SMA(30) and SMA(50) are also below 1. There is no sharp upward breakout. This shows that selling is in a continuous pattern.
With this data, even if the ETH price goes up, every rise will be met with selling. There is a downward trend. Sales are aggressive, purchases are passive; we are experiencing a real bear season. It's not hard to say that this situation will continue for some time. $ETH
Miners Believe Bitcoin's Decline Will Continue
Negative bars have dominated the Bitcoin Netflow Binance chart in recent weeks. Miners are selling, especially as the price falls. In other words, they aren't saying "I'll wait for the price to rise before selling," they're directly moving to liquidation. This indicates they expect the decline to continue. If miners are selling under cost pressure, there's a natural increase in supply in the market. If this supply isn't absorbed by ETF and spot buyers, the price is suppressed, which is currently the case.
The Miner Positions Index is approximately +1.1. This means miners aren't buying, but are consistently selling. This can be considered typical bear market behavior.
This week, the Bitcoin price fell to $75-$76K. Normally, these levels are strong bottom zones. While a reversal in price could occur if the MPI turned negative and Netflow turned positive at this point, this scenario isn't happening. This shows that miners don't see this level as a bottom. Miners are using rebound rallies as selling opportunities.
In this situation, we can generally expect a sharper decline in altcoins than in BTC, and a move in favor of BTC in terms of dominance.
It's no coincidence that Binance stands out by a wide margin in miner netflow data. Binance is still the exchange with the deepest liquidity and the most reliable price discovery, which is why miners prefer it first for selling and risk management. The fact that miner behavior can be read so clearly once again shows that Binance data is still unrivaled in the market. $BTC
Negative bars have dominated the Bitcoin Netflow Binance chart in recent weeks. Miners are selling, especially as the price falls. In other words, they aren't saying "I'll wait for the price to rise before selling," they're directly moving to liquidation. This indicates they expect the decline to continue. If miners are selling under cost pressure, there's a natural increase in supply in the market. If this supply isn't absorbed by ETF and spot buyers, the price is suppressed, which is currently the case.
The Miner Positions Index is approximately +1.1. This means miners aren't buying, but are consistently selling. This can be considered typical bear market behavior.
This week, the Bitcoin price fell to $75-$76K. Normally, these levels are strong bottom zones. While a reversal in price could occur if the MPI turned negative and Netflow turned positive at this point, this scenario isn't happening. This shows that miners don't see this level as a bottom. Miners are using rebound rallies as selling opportunities.
In this situation, we can generally expect a sharper decline in altcoins than in BTC, and a move in favor of BTC in terms of dominance.
It's no coincidence that Binance stands out by a wide margin in miner netflow data. Binance is still the exchange with the deepest liquidity and the most reliable price discovery, which is why miners prefer it first for selling and risk management. The fact that miner behavior can be read so clearly once again shows that Binance data is still unrivaled in the market. $BTC
A very clean Head and Shoulders (H&S) formation has been completed on the TOTAL chart. The left shoulder represents the early summer peak, the head represents the autumn peak, and the right shoulder represents the December-January period. The neckline is approximately in the 2.83T – 2.75T range. A break below the neckline technically signals a medium-to-long-term downtrend.
Currently, the total market capitalization of #total is around 2.55T. The likelihood of a rebound after the neckline breakout seems weak. The price is unable to retrace above the broken levels (2.75T – 2.83T). Sales are persistent, and rises remain corrections. There are no buyers in the market.
On the chart, 2.55T – 2.53T is the short-term support zone, 2.31T is the last major low and strong support, and 2.17T – 2.05T is the H&S target zone.
In the red dotted scenario I drew, I showed that a weak rebound followed by a test of a lower low is possible. These types of movements generally remain as liquidity accumulation. #altcoins
It would be wrong to expect a rise in the #crypto market until TOTAL rises above 2.83T again. Daily/weekly closes must be above this level for us to have hope for a rise. Without this, any rise will be a bear market reaction. #Total #bitcoin
Currently, the total market capitalization of #total is around 2.55T. The likelihood of a rebound after the neckline breakout seems weak. The price is unable to retrace above the broken levels (2.75T – 2.83T). Sales are persistent, and rises remain corrections. There are no buyers in the market.
On the chart, 2.55T – 2.53T is the short-term support zone, 2.31T is the last major low and strong support, and 2.17T – 2.05T is the H&S target zone.
In the red dotted scenario I drew, I showed that a weak rebound followed by a test of a lower low is possible. These types of movements generally remain as liquidity accumulation. #altcoins
It would be wrong to expect a rise in the #crypto market until TOTAL rises above 2.83T again. Daily/weekly closes must be above this level for us to have hope for a rise. Without this, any rise will be a bear market reaction. #Total #bitcoin
Whales Aren't Moving to Buy XRP
These two charts show that inflows to Binance are currently stronger and more aggressive than outflows. This alone is bearish market behavior.
As you know, whales and institutional investors use Binance the most because of its stronger liquidity. Therefore, looking at Binance data is critical to reading the market.
On the inflow side, high bands (100K–1M & 1M+) are seen more frequently and with higher volumes. There is outflow, but it is reactive, meaning it comes after the price falls.
Large investors sell their XRP first. Then, when the price falls, they withdraw some from the exchange to balance things out. This has become a cycle since the second half of 2025.
The inflow chart shows sharper and more recurring spikes. Inflows are occurring again before the price can recover. This doesn't mean hodling or buying at the bottom. Whales are either selling or waiting. The buying side is still weak.
The most common mistake here is entering a bullish expectation simply because there's an outflow. In this chart, the outflow increases after the price falls, not while it's rising. So there's a forced exit. There's no permanent supply shortage in the outflow chart. For the chart to turn bullish, we need to see an outflow breakout followed by a price rise.
Whenever inflow increases, the price is suppressed, but when outflow increases, the price can't react.
Reactions are weak and short-lived. This is a situation where buyers are weak and sellers maintain their dominance.
My expectation in this chart is that the main price trend will continue downwards, with rises being short-lived and reactive. I see every upward reaction as a selling opportunity. A new low, or at least another low, seems highly probable. $XRP
These two charts show that inflows to Binance are currently stronger and more aggressive than outflows. This alone is bearish market behavior.
As you know, whales and institutional investors use Binance the most because of its stronger liquidity. Therefore, looking at Binance data is critical to reading the market.
On the inflow side, high bands (100K–1M & 1M+) are seen more frequently and with higher volumes. There is outflow, but it is reactive, meaning it comes after the price falls.
Large investors sell their XRP first. Then, when the price falls, they withdraw some from the exchange to balance things out. This has become a cycle since the second half of 2025.
The inflow chart shows sharper and more recurring spikes. Inflows are occurring again before the price can recover. This doesn't mean hodling or buying at the bottom. Whales are either selling or waiting. The buying side is still weak.
The most common mistake here is entering a bullish expectation simply because there's an outflow. In this chart, the outflow increases after the price falls, not while it's rising. So there's a forced exit. There's no permanent supply shortage in the outflow chart. For the chart to turn bullish, we need to see an outflow breakout followed by a price rise.
Whenever inflow increases, the price is suppressed, but when outflow increases, the price can't react.
Reactions are weak and short-lived. This is a situation where buyers are weak and sellers maintain their dominance.
My expectation in this chart is that the main price trend will continue downwards, with rises being short-lived and reactive. I see every upward reaction as a selling opportunity. A new low, or at least another low, seems highly probable. $XRP
Ethereum's decline continues. I expect this drop to continue down to the $1700 level, where it will pause and a rebound might occur. This rise could reach $2100. After that, I think the decline will continue, with the bottom around $900. $ETH
My #Bitcoin analysis, which I've been following for months and which has shown 100% successful performance.
We see that the Quasimodo pattern is working on the chart. The price is moving towards the formation target. From here, I think it will gradually move towards the $81,550 target first, and then $41,500. However, I expect it to remain in a very short wick-like pattern below $50K. I don't think it will close below $50K for a week or a month. This prediction is not something that will happen in a few days or this month; it's a movement I expect to happen within this year. $BTC
We see that the Quasimodo pattern is working on the chart. The price is moving towards the formation target. From here, I think it will gradually move towards the $81,550 target first, and then $41,500. However, I expect it to remain in a very short wick-like pattern below $50K. I don't think it will close below $50K for a week or a month. This prediction is not something that will happen in a few days or this month; it's a movement I expect to happen within this year. $BTC
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