So, let's go step by step. Thesis one: there are no more cycles...
The first three four-year BTC cycles developed similarly: • Year 1: Halving = year of accumulation, weak trend. • Year 2: The following year after the halving = super bullish, setting a new ATH (12-18 months after the halving). • Year 3: Bear market. • Year 4: Recovery.
What do we have now? • Year 1: (2024) Halving = ATH before the halving, super bullish. • Year 2: (2025) If we extrapolate history = super bullish? • Year 3: (2026) Bear market? • Year 4: (2027) Recovery?
As we can see, there's already a significant divergence from previous years.
My theory: there are no more cycles in their usual form. BTC is in a supercycle like gold or Nasdaq. Therefore, its growth may continue in 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, altcoins within this larger supercycle experience micro bulls and bears.
And right now, we're in a micro-bear phase (for alts and ETH). And it’s something that just needs to be waited out. It won’t last for years as it did before because BTC will soon resume its growth within its supercycle.
🔹 $2 Billion Investment in Binance Abu Dhabi's MGX fund invested $2B in Binance using stablecoins, marking Binance’s first big institutional investment.
🔹 Trump Says Markets Will Boom Donald Trump believes the markets will soar, but investors have mixed reactions as policy changes remain unclear.
🔹 Trump Wants No Taxes for Middle Class A new proposal suggests removing taxes for people earning under $150K, with revenue coming from tariffs instead.
🔹 SEC vs. Ripple Case Almost Settled Ripple and the SEC are close to settling their long legal battle over XRP, negotiating fines and restrictions.
🔹 Coinbase Removes Meme Coins in NY FLOKI, TURBO, and GIGA will be delisted from Coinbase in New York on April 14. Some think it's bad news for meme coins, others say it could reduce selling pressure.
🔹 Rumble Buys More Bitcoin Video platform Rumble has bought 188 BTC for $17.1M to protect against inflation and support digital finance.
🔹 SEC Delays Crypto ETFs Again The SEC postponed decisions on many crypto ETFs but is reviewing Ethereum staking proposals from big firms like Fidelity.
🔹 U.S. Wants to Buy 1M BTC A new bill suggests the U.S. should buy 1 million Bitcoins over 5 years as part of its financial strategy.
🔹 $4M Lost in ETH Liquidation A big trader’s Ethereum position was liquidated, causing Hyperliquid to lose $4M. The platform will now adjust leverage limits.
I see a lot of crypto bros put there is being bearish on the BTC because the BSR doesn’t actually acquired BTC. They use the budget neutral strategy.
They don’t really understand the mechanism here for the budget neutral strategy. The budget neutral strategy can be done through many mechanism to still acquire BTC. They can issue the Bitcoin bond or sell some of the gold reserve to buy BTC, for example.
Moreover, there is the crypto act which stated that Us can have BTC up to 1 millions coins in the next 5 years.
It hasn’t approved by congress but it will be approved 100%. The quote that Senator Lummis gave is very logical, the other countries will enter the race to build Bitcoin strategic reserve like what the US does today.
We’ll come to the golden era of bitcoin, major buy will come into BTC and it will be very very fast. You won’t be able to follow the train trying to catch the bottom.
This first stage of BSR implementation is to get the regulatory clarity. This regulatory clarity is the first major step for hiking higher.
The market feels so dead right now. After yesterday massacre, we are now seeing BTC to consolidate around this lower end of the bottom creation here.
There isn’t still any real demand after yesterday’s capitulation event from retails side. The fact that it’s now dropping so much is making fear as across the market right now.
However, people also forget just how much capital the market has been offloaded during the yesterday’s dip. There is almost none of the liquidation left in the lower side.
This is good because people keep shorting at this level while there are more liquidations building at the upside increasing the odds of short squeeze.
It’s pretty easy buy from me in this current market condition after all.
People become way more irrational again at this circumstance making me hungrier to add to more positions.
Just another thought…
People are now forgetting all of the good news fundamentally and only looking at the bad side and unconfirmed news in the media..
Please do remember and count how many cases that SEC has dismissed related to crypto companies since Trump came to office.
We’re now at the best period of crypto administration ever in US history..
Thesis,Theory, about ALTcoin, First of all, you should remember about why is there an altcoin season?
Look at the graph, you can find that altcoins seasons always occurred when there is an asset rotation when BTC has reached ATH.
When? In the past : 1. 2017 - 20118 cycle : February 2017 - June 2017 2. 2020 - 2021 cycle : December 2020 to May 2021
I'm talking about altcoins market. It's literally an odds of 50/50 whether it's the bottom or it's a bear market in the forming.
In term of technical analysis, it's all met of the structure has been broken for at least the top 20 of the altcoins even though, BTC remains strong.
We're actually is still observing the condition right now and still don't know what the outcome will be.
So, here is our action : 1. It's now BTC season obviously, so we will do rebalance more often on our portfolio with the proportion of heavy in BTC. 2. During the dip like this, we are going to heavily collect the quality token. The quality token that I mean is the token that we're willing to hold for the next at least 24 months. 3. We're selling some of the seasonal narrative-driven coin such as gaming coin, memecoin, SocialFi, Layer2, NFT, etc.. 4. We're just putting our money in BTC with "all in" mode as our bet to the unstable economic ahead. We do this even with leverage. We'll be more aggressive adding position during the journey to the downside. 5. After rebalancing our portfolio, we're now on heavy 35% cash level. For the rest 65% of the position, we're heavy on BTC with 75% in the BTC position and the rest ONLY in quality coins.
You have to realize that we're in the bear market for altcoins. Even if there's an altseason, not all the coins will go to the roof.. This cycle will be a time to eliminate the trash out of the market.
You have to read our thesis about altcoins back at July 2024
By the way, BTC will bounce to $102k - $104k level no matter what for the swing. The post above is for my long term portfolio.
Remember, it's BTC season. You will see BTC blows off top while the trash altcoins keep dropping.
Alpha in the market $S Some relative strength in the market. We're working in it right now. Sonic is having a good compression here with a possibility for the upside break. It's more of fundamental bias which there is delta neutral $S farming on beets. APY is 116% + 16x sonic activity. This is the alpha in the market today. Whether you can start a staking there or just buy th$S S token. Positive sentiment like this will absorb liquidity, so I'm expecting some appreciation in the price as well. To catch this benefit : 1. Stake your sonic token in beets. or, 2. Just buy the token when it break above $0.48 with shy target at $0.6. Just an alpha in the market, no other telegram channel will share this information.