疯狂的Jerrick

Today’s crypto ETF developments feel a bit consistent in the same direction—let’s break it down:

1) BTC ETF fund flows have shown net inflows for two straight days, but compared to the day before, yesterday’s net inflow has clearly decreased. This suggests that large institutions’ buying interest at this level isn’t unified enough. The big BTC is still hesitating below the downward trendline from this earlier 1-hour move. I did get stopped out again, but I still placed a short trade. I’m using a tight stop to bet on a bigger opportunity. My trading logic is: BTC’s ability to lead/drive is still not strong enough here. Overall, it’s still a bit bearish.

2) Over the past five days, ETH ETF fund flows have been net inflows on four of those days. From price action, ETH looks relatively strong as well. It has already broken through the 1-hour timeframe triangle convergence pattern, but it hasn’t formed an effective big bullish candle. The main reason could be that it’s waiting for BTC to break out effectively and for signs of stabilization. Another driver for ETH strength is that the Ethereum Foundation has kicked off the “glamsterdam” testnet, followed by upgrades across subsequent phases. If going long, prioritize ETH; if shorting, choose BTC.

3) After SOL’s ETF fund flows had zero net inflow for five straight days, it finally saw a small rebound. Yesterday’s net inflow was 1.6M, and this is the first time in the last month (and I didn’t go back further to trace before that) that BTC, ETH, and SOL all had positive net inflows at the same time. This could become a turning point—or it could just be a node when BTC breaks a key level. But until BTC confirms it, all of this is only assumptions.

4) Hype’s ETF fund flows have been zero for six consecutive working days. However, Hype’s price is also relatively strong. For Hype, as long as there isn’t net outflow, it’s likely still a positive. After all, it’s burning every day and buying back every day.

In terms of my personal trades, I still hold a BTC short, as well as shorts on BCH and XRP.

Anyway, in recent days, aside from BTC, my BCH and XRP shorts have already been held for many days. There still hasn’t been meaningful profit—so they’re relatively weak. I can only wait for a big move to come.

The above is only my personal trading analysis records and does not constitute any investment advice.
#以太坊启动Glamsterdam早期测试网
#比特币永续合约资金费率创20个月新高
$BTC $ETH

After getting encrypted, are people still trading US stocks?

After the good news that Hynix released yesterday, this is still a place where you can bet on long positions.
But since the trades from yesterday have all turned a profit, the sense of opportunity here doesn’t feel as attractive anymore.
I’ve basically allocated 80% of my position to crypto, and only kept a small short-position allocation for SpaceX.
Actually, my understanding of SpaceX has been correct all along.
Unfortunately, it’s simply too strong. As a result, even after the current unlock expectations have played out, I still haven’t been able to secure a significant profit.
But it’s already pretty good.
As long as you don’t lose money, profits are just a reward for one’s understanding.
I can only say my own understanding isn’t quite enough yet.
But no matter what, I’m still improving. That’s good too.
For this unlock round, tonight I personally think there will still be a decent wave of downside.
As for other Tradfi stocks, I still have a relatively favorable view of Hynix—because the Korean guys always buy with the intensity of digging into their last reserves.

I might finish this wave on SpaceX first, and then look for long opportunities in Hynix.
That one is, after all, a medium-to-long-term opportunity.

Also, one more thing: before yesterday, the leader in storage was SNDK. When SNDK rose, everyone rose; when SNDK fell, everyone fell.
But yesterday, Hynix announced a buyback. So the leader switched back to Hynix. When Hynix rises, everyone rises; when Hynix falls, everyone falls.
Because of the good news, during the上涨 process, the leader always surges the most and drops the least. So in each round, who to buy—it's all crystal clear.

Let me share my own prediction.
With this kind of strategy used by the market now, a bull market is inevitable.
And the timing of the arrival of “the bull comes” is the starting point of this cycle.
So for the coin called “Niulai,” I’m extremely, extremely bullish.
#牛来 $牛来

Just my personal opinion, not investment advice of any kind.

The account has hit a new high—let me share my thoughts on my next steps.

I still woke up on time at 6 this morning.



Seeing how the ETH and SOL I chased last night are still continuing to push to higher levels, they’ve really been doing well.

That also means my earlier analysis on ETH was able to explain some underlying logic.
1）In this recent bear market, while most BTC is seeing net outflows, ETH is still showing net inflows via ETF capital.
2）From the K-line technical pattern, it’s clear that ETH is stronger than the big pie (BTC). And the current SOL technical setup speaks for itself as well.
3）Finally, it’s about when BTC prints a big bullish candle—who rallies along with it, and whose move is the strongest. The strongest one is the one you get on. No doubt, I saw the Hype, ETH, and SOL.

Yesterday, during the day, I held short positions on BTC, BCH, and XRP. But seeing that the two weakest mainstream coins, BCH and XRP, were both still moving up, I decisively flipped from short to long—entering ETH and SOL. Then after the first wave of a big bullish candle on BTC, around 11 last night, I added more to SOL and ETH.

This morning, what was rising the most best was actually HYPE, and it was already nearing the previous high. So I first opened a starter position. After HYPE breaks above the previous high, I’ll add more. For this round, what I’m most bullish on is Hype. I remember that one of my earlier analysis posts about ETF capital mentioned the reasons.


Also this morning, I added to a short position on SpaceX, because it’s still trending weakly. The bad news won’t fully land until tonight, and there’s room to the downside—at least I expect to see the issue price of 135. Based on the last time on 8/6 when it was unlocked, once it lands it will start to rally. But this time I think it could be different—we’ll need to watch based on the strength at the time and the overall market environment. Personally, I think after it lands there may still be another leg of downside. After all, China only pulled down its future valuation a bit yesterday. If things are steadier, you can take profit on a portion after it lands.

The above is just my personal trading analysis and record, and does not constitute investment advice.

Isn’t this good news? It shows that more and more capital is betting on the space industry.

This round of losses from SanDisk should have wiped out quite a number of people.
A few days ago in my post I mentioned: if you’re going to short storage, don’t short SanDisk.
SanDisk is the leader—the big boss.
Everyone’s attention is focused on SanDisk.
Big money, large institutions, and major operators love the big short positions you hold.
Instead, you should short the two followers: MU and SK hynix.
But even so, I was stopped out repeatedly and kept getting hit.
In the past couple of days, my account has been slowly bleeding back too.
That shows that SanDisk is truly strong.
The followers don’t just get some soup—they also get meat to eat.
The earlier post was already beaten into compliance.
Now I’m coming out to repent a bit.

I do see a lot of KOLs who are stubbornly holding onto SanDisk.
Every day they’re atoning for not stopping loss sooner.


But every day they also add to the position and go all in hard.
They’re fighting the market—against human nature.
Sooner or later, you’ll get a loud, dramatic lesson that teaches you.
Every trade must come with a stop loss.
No matter how convinced you are that it’s at the end and should be coming down.
If it really does drop, then add more.
Isn’t that right?
But what if it doesn’t drop?
What if one big bullish candle breaks above the previous high?
How many “what ifs” can your account withstand?
Put yourself in their shoes and think about your own problem.
If I were them, what would I do?
Would I stop out immediately?
I think I would.
I would open trades with stop losses every time—not not using stop losses, endlessly adding to positions to lower the average price, and endlessly praying and panicking.

Of course, what I’m saying here is conditional—“if.”
Because I haven’t reached that big a capital size, maybe I can’t really understand their feelings.
So I’ll repeat the same line: trading basically doesn’t have fewer twists and turns.
If you manage to take fewer wrong turns, you won’t get to where you are.

#存储芯片一夜集体爆发

Everyone around the world knows that SpaceX is set to release 320 million shares to the market this week, and the previous round of share unlocks has already proven that the unlock landing is a positive catalyst.

This time, it will be a “chip pressure test day,” and it may be different:
1) The reason the first round of unlocks could rally so high is that many big institutions, large financial groups, and big companies were waiting to buy at lower prices to allocate SpaceX into their funds or reserves according to their respective plans. But by the time of the second unlock, these large institutions may already have been configured/allocated to a large extent. So after the second round of unlocks, the real buy-side demand may not be as疯狂 as it was in the first round.
2) From expectations alone, stock unlocks have always been a negative message until the actual event lands. This time it will definitely be accompanied by a pullback, and the size of that pullback will determine investors’ outlook for what comes next. Personally, the shallower the pullback, the more violently the stock will rise after the negative is absorbed.
3) Compared with the previous unlock: before the stock unlock, the night before—before the earnings report was released—SpaceX’s stock went through a frenzy “short squeeze” surge. After the earnings report’s good news was released, a big bearish candle (a long red candle) directly signaled a smooth downturn. Then, once the stock unlock actually landed, Spacex successfully completed a second dip and turned around, and that’s when a smooth uptrend began. This time, there’s inevitably going to be a short-squeeze-like move as well; but this time, there won’t be any earnings report good news as a catalyst, so the upside is relatively limited—most likely staying below 149.
4) Around the stock unlock, there will be two Starlink launch missions. If they succeed, it’s standard procedure. But if there’s any abnormality or failure, it will further amplify the negative sentiment from the stock unlock.

In terms of operations: personally, before the stock unlock lands, I won’t chase longs on any rise; instead, I think it may be an opportunity to attempt shorting. After the stock unlock lands, I’ll decide whether to go long based on the situation, rather than short.
$SPCX

#SpaceX股价涨至140美元