疯狂的Jerrick
623 Posts
疯狂的Jerrick
🤖 AI trains me to become a professional trader.
12Y Software Engineer｜10Y Crypto
工程师视角研究Crypto，不喊单，只聊逻辑。
Quant Strategy｜Automation｜AI｜Livestream
全网同名，更多请看置顶文章
Open Trade
BNB Holder
High-Frequency Trader
8.3 Years
86 Following
843 Followers
427 Liked
Posts
Portfolio
All
Quotes
Videos
Live
Choppy market conditions can easily make people feel like there are opportunities everywhere that are just about to break out.
But actually, it’s because my understanding of the market still isn’t good enough.
Even though I clearly know it’s a range-bound market,
I still can’t control myself and keep opening positions.
I feel like my trading ability has regressed a bit.
I feel that any money I managed to make before was basically just because the market happened to “feed me.”
In a range-bound market, you should resolutely wait to place trades at support and resistance levels.
You must enter trades at key levels
to improve your win rate.
What choppy markets absolutely hate most
is chasing small timeframe breakouts within the valid range.
If you open a position in the middle of the range,
at any moment—whether the price moves up or down—it’s basically random.
Moving up is reasonable,
so is moving down.
You won’t make much money,
but the kind of torture it causes is second to none.
I’m just an S-B.
A SaX who can’t control their hands.
Wake up and take a long look at yourself.
Crazy Jerrick!!!!
But actually, it’s because my understanding of the market still isn’t good enough.
Even though I clearly know it’s a range-bound market,
I still can’t control myself and keep opening positions.
I feel like my trading ability has regressed a bit.
I feel that any money I managed to make before was basically just because the market happened to “feed me.”
In a range-bound market, you should resolutely wait to place trades at support and resistance levels.
You must enter trades at key levels
to improve your win rate.
What choppy markets absolutely hate most
is chasing small timeframe breakouts within the valid range.
If you open a position in the middle of the range,
at any moment—whether the price moves up or down—it’s basically random.
Moving up is reasonable,
so is moving down.
You won’t make much money,
but the kind of torture it causes is second to none.
I’m just an S-B.
A SaX who can’t control their hands.
Wake up and take a long look at yourself.
Crazy Jerrick!!!!
Eliminate the difference in opinion!
Before, when Trump issued coins, it was to make fortunes—
now, when Biden’s son issues coins, it’s to make people poor!
Before, when Trump issued coins, it was to make fortunes—
now, when Biden’s son issues coins, it’s to make people poor!
It’s very important to first determine the big direction, and then act according to it.
Recently, when shorting, I haven’t made any money at all.
It was all stopped out!
Seeing isn’t the same as doing.
Doing it for real is so hard.
You need to reflect!!
Recently, when shorting, I haven’t made any money at all.
It was all stopped out!
Seeing isn’t the same as doing.
Doing it for real is so hard.
You need to reflect!!
Let’s review the actions I took last night regarding the failure of SpaceX:
1. Continuously adding on dips: Due to my own subjective judgment, I believed that after spacex was poked downward, the rebound would only be a short-term stop-loss liquidation by the longs in the absence of any positive news. But I didn’t know it could pull above 150.
I made multiple averaging-down/additional-entry operations, and in the end it ended in failure. Adding is possible, but if after adding the trade the price doesn’t move according to the expected pattern, you should reduce positions decisively. Don’t wait until it hits the stop-loss line and then exit everything together.
2. Constantly moving my stop-loss line upward.
Once the market strongly rebounded above 149.7, that already exceeded what I expected—it was outside the limits of what I had scripted. If it rebounded above 149.7, I should have stopped out strictly then, rather than waiting to place the stop at 153.
3. Rebounds beyond my understanding—no matter how much loss they cause—I should first stop out and step back to observe, instead of being stubbornly attached to the direction I insisted on.
4. The market is always right. You shouldn’t assume that stretches upward with no news must be “just talk” or manipulation.
5. Being right about the market isn’t the same as doing the trade right—this is the hardest riddle for all traders. Only by improving bit by bit, refining bit by bit, and slowly summarizing lessons learned can you do better over time.
DYOR
1. Continuously adding on dips: Due to my own subjective judgment, I believed that after spacex was poked downward, the rebound would only be a short-term stop-loss liquidation by the longs in the absence of any positive news. But I didn’t know it could pull above 150.
I made multiple averaging-down/additional-entry operations, and in the end it ended in failure. Adding is possible, but if after adding the trade the price doesn’t move according to the expected pattern, you should reduce positions decisively. Don’t wait until it hits the stop-loss line and then exit everything together.
2. Constantly moving my stop-loss line upward.
Once the market strongly rebounded above 149.7, that already exceeded what I expected—it was outside the limits of what I had scripted. If it rebounded above 149.7, I should have stopped out strictly then, rather than waiting to place the stop at 153.
3. Rebounds beyond my understanding—no matter how much loss they cause—I should first stop out and step back to observe, instead of being stubbornly attached to the direction I insisted on.
4. The market is always right. You shouldn’t assume that stretches upward with no news must be “just talk” or manipulation.
5. Being right about the market isn’t the same as doing the trade right—this is the hardest riddle for all traders. Only by improving bit by bit, refining bit by bit, and slowly summarizing lessons learned can you do better over time.
DYOR
疯狂的Jerrick
·
--
The basic logic is fine.
Basically, it follows the script I gave.
If there is a rebound, you can add to the short position.
From today to tomorrow evening, at the market open, it should be a downward trend.
$SPCX
Basically, it follows the script I gave.
If there is a rebound, you can add to the short position.
From today to tomorrow evening, at the market open, it should be a downward trend.
$SPCX
The basic logic is fine.
Basically, it follows the script I gave.
If there is a rebound, you can add to the short position.
From today to tomorrow evening, at the market open, it should be a downward trend.
$SPCX
Basically, it follows the script I gave.
If there is a rebound, you can add to the short position.
From today to tomorrow evening, at the market open, it should be a downward trend.
$SPCX
疯狂的Jerrick
·
--
SpaceX will carry out two consecutive unlockings tomorrow (9/9) and the day after tomorrow (9/10). Then in the early hours of 9/11, the CFO of SpaceX will deliver an important speech.
The number of shares to be unlocked on 9/9 will be a large amount—about 319 million shares.
The unlocking on 9/10 will be a small amount—about 59.1 million shares.
So SpaceX is facing selling pressure from two consecutive rounds of large unlockings.
In terms of personal trading:
The direction is still definitely bearish. With my current position at 159, I have already entered a starter position. I will place my stop-loss slightly outside the recent high.
If tonight it can break above 153, then I will look for another entry point to go short again. Personally, I feel it will dip a bit during the day today,
then at the open tonight it may surge upward, but it likely won’t break the previous high of 152.3.
Then, during that upward push at tonight’s open, I will look for opportunities to add a bit more to the position.
Taking into account the unlocking event before August 6: the night before it, there was a relatively high peak, and then it quickly reversed downward. Tonight is unlikely to repeat the same pattern,
because the night before August 6 was pushed up by the catalyst of SpaceX’s earnings report release.
Tonight, there won’t be any major announcements—apart from the trend of the U.S. stock market index, there’s basically no other factor that could push SpaceX higher.
So if the U.S. stock market index performs well tonight, it may pull SpaceX upward along with it for a round.
But if SpaceX drops during the day today, then the following行情 can be referenced from August 20—basically heading south all the way.
$SPCX
The above is only my personal trading thinking and does not constitute any investment advice.
The number of shares to be unlocked on 9/9 will be a large amount—about 319 million shares.
The unlocking on 9/10 will be a small amount—about 59.1 million shares.
So SpaceX is facing selling pressure from two consecutive rounds of large unlockings.
In terms of personal trading:
The direction is still definitely bearish. With my current position at 159, I have already entered a starter position. I will place my stop-loss slightly outside the recent high.
If tonight it can break above 153, then I will look for another entry point to go short again. Personally, I feel it will dip a bit during the day today,
then at the open tonight it may surge upward, but it likely won’t break the previous high of 152.3.
Then, during that upward push at tonight’s open, I will look for opportunities to add a bit more to the position.
Taking into account the unlocking event before August 6: the night before it, there was a relatively high peak, and then it quickly reversed downward. Tonight is unlikely to repeat the same pattern,
because the night before August 6 was pushed up by the catalyst of SpaceX’s earnings report release.
Tonight, there won’t be any major announcements—apart from the trend of the U.S. stock market index, there’s basically no other factor that could push SpaceX higher.
So if the U.S. stock market index performs well tonight, it may pull SpaceX upward along with it for a round.
But if SpaceX drops during the day today, then the following行情 can be referenced from August 20—basically heading south all the way.
$SPCX
The above is only my personal trading thinking and does not constitute any investment advice.
Robinhood just went dark,
and the BNB Chain started causing trouble.
4stock should be pretty much confirmed as the BNB leader in this round.
In less than 6 hours, it already surged to 60M.
And it successfully pulled BNB and BNC stocks along with it.
This should be a very clear signal—and the first MEME that, all by itself, managed to move both stocks and BNB.
Now, at this moment, let’s look at other public chains.
They’re basically in a dormant state.
So, judging by all this, the position of 4stock is even more self-evident.
I’ll just have a small expectation.
Although I only just entered the market too.
Still, I remain optimistic about what comes next.
and the BNB Chain started causing trouble.
4stock should be pretty much confirmed as the BNB leader in this round.
In less than 6 hours, it already surged to 60M.
And it successfully pulled BNB and BNC stocks along with it.
This should be a very clear signal—and the first MEME that, all by itself, managed to move both stocks and BNB.
Now, at this moment, let’s look at other public chains.
They’re basically in a dormant state.
So, judging by all this, the position of 4stock is even more self-evident.
I’ll just have a small expectation.
Although I only just entered the market too.
Still, I remain optimistic about what comes next.
For Biden’s son to issue a coin,
This news is actually a downside for Trump, since it belongs to two completely opposing camps.
1) On this point, I think you could try a short position; I actually did so just now. After September 9th comes out, there may be another big cascade.
2) At the same time, I also looked at Trump’s candlestick chart. From the recent high point, it has already pulled back by about 40%. In terms of the impact on the news, Trump has already digested some of the negative factors. So shorting still has some unfavorable conditions; what you’re afraid of is that the negative news could be followed by a positive reaction when it actually lands.
3) One more thing about the short position: Trump has midterm elections coming up recently, so he could shout a counterattack against Biden at any time.
But no matter what, from today through tomorrow, when the 9/9 news lands on the laptop, I still feel there’s room for further downside, so I made some position allocations.
Let’s see whether there are stronger amplification expectations afterward. I set the stop-loss very tight.
This news is actually a downside for Trump, since it belongs to two completely opposing camps.
1) On this point, I think you could try a short position; I actually did so just now. After September 9th comes out, there may be another big cascade.
2) At the same time, I also looked at Trump’s candlestick chart. From the recent high point, it has already pulled back by about 40%. In terms of the impact on the news, Trump has already digested some of the negative factors. So shorting still has some unfavorable conditions; what you’re afraid of is that the negative news could be followed by a positive reaction when it actually lands.
3) One more thing about the short position: Trump has midterm elections coming up recently, so he could shout a counterattack against Biden at any time.
But no matter what, from today through tomorrow, when the 9/9 news lands on the laptop, I still feel there’s room for further downside, so I made some position allocations.
Let’s see whether there are stronger amplification expectations afterward. I set the stop-loss very tight.
Binance listed PONS, which accelerated PONS’ rise to a higher market cap peak,
and at the same time also accelerated the timing of its pullback.
Binance listed the Hakimi perpetual contract,
which will create short-term bearish pressure for Niulai and the other three Chinese coins.
Short-term attention will shift to Hakimi here,
but in the medium to long term,
Niulai will still be the best-performing Chinese token in this bull run.
and at the same time also accelerated the timing of its pullback.
Binance listed the Hakimi perpetual contract,
which will create short-term bearish pressure for Niulai and the other three Chinese coins.
Short-term attention will shift to Hakimi here,
but in the medium to long term,
Niulai will still be the best-performing Chinese token in this bull run.
Binance News
·
--
BNB falls below 760 USDT, 24-hour gain narrows to 4.45%
According to Binance market data, BNB has fallen below 760 USDT, now quoted at 759.400024 USDT, with its 24-hour gain narrowing to 4.45%.
All kinds of knockoff coins have basically already risen quite a bit.
I’ve been watching the market so closely today that I don’t even want to write any posts.
But in fact, there are a thousand narratives in my mind,
a thousand rotation lines being rehearsed,
being reproduced.
I’m practically too busy to keep up.
Still, I think it’s necessary to say this again here.
Hype, this coin,
didn’t really start moving yesterday.
ZEC of the same tier (both breaking all-time highs) has already moved up a notch,
but HYPE still hasn’t gone up yet.
The main reason is that August 29 had a big unlock,
and September 6 (which is today) also has an unlock.
On the 29th, the coin price did react somewhat,
it dipped a little, but overall it wasn’t affected much.
Today is even more exaggerated, basically no drop at all,
instead it’s very steady.
This is also constrained by the atmosphere of the bull market.
Now it’s already noon.
Since so much has been unlocked
and it still hasn’t fallen, then I’m going long.
This one should be held for a long time.
My guess is, at least I can hold until the next 29th,
let’s see how big a splash it can make.
#ZEC续刷历史新高
I’ve been watching the market so closely today that I don’t even want to write any posts.
But in fact, there are a thousand narratives in my mind,
a thousand rotation lines being rehearsed,
being reproduced.
I’m practically too busy to keep up.
Still, I think it’s necessary to say this again here.
Hype, this coin,
didn’t really start moving yesterday.
ZEC of the same tier (both breaking all-time highs) has already moved up a notch,
but HYPE still hasn’t gone up yet.
The main reason is that August 29 had a big unlock,
and September 6 (which is today) also has an unlock.
On the 29th, the coin price did react somewhat,
it dipped a little, but overall it wasn’t affected much.
Today is even more exaggerated, basically no drop at all,
instead it’s very steady.
This is also constrained by the atmosphere of the bull market.
Now it’s already noon.
Since so much has been unlocked
and it still hasn’t fallen, then I’m going long.
This one should be held for a long time.
My guess is, at least I can hold until the next 29th,
let’s see how big a splash it can make.
#ZEC续刷历史新高
I think,
if this is really the start of a bull market,
then when the bull comes, it will rise for a very, very long time!
Seriously, just thinking about it is scary.
A movie, a meme, and a bull market were shouted into existence like that.
Really awesome.
Last night when I was watching Zheng Qinwen’s livestream,
someone on site was actually shouting "bull come" at Zheng Qinwen too.
From Chinese cinema to the crypto world, and then to the US Open,
it even spread there, and yesterday when I was taking the kid out to play,
the kid was also playing a game called Bull Come!
Finally, one sentence to sum it up:
the bull market has really arrived!
When the bull comes, it will rise very, very high!
$牛来
if this is really the start of a bull market,
then when the bull comes, it will rise for a very, very long time!
Seriously, just thinking about it is scary.
A movie, a meme, and a bull market were shouted into existence like that.
Really awesome.
Last night when I was watching Zheng Qinwen’s livestream,
someone on site was actually shouting "bull come" at Zheng Qinwen too.
From Chinese cinema to the crypto world, and then to the US Open,
it even spread there, and yesterday when I was taking the kid out to play,
the kid was also playing a game called Bull Come!
Finally, one sentence to sum it up:
the bull market has really arrived!
When the bull comes, it will rise very, very high!
$牛来
I've also been on fomo for a few days.
Only now did I realize that when others airdrop coins,
they don't need to know your wallet address,
They only need to know your fomo ID.
It's really damn convenient.
It looks like this fomo is really going to overturn all previous transaction methods.
It reminds me a bit of when Douyin e-commerce first came out,
when it was going to replace need-based purchasing with interest-based purchasing.
It's insanely crazy.
$MARSCOIN
Only now did I realize that when others airdrop coins,
they don't need to know your wallet address,
They only need to know your fomo ID.
It's really damn convenient.
It looks like this fomo is really going to overturn all previous transaction methods.
It reminds me a bit of when Douyin e-commerce first came out,
when it was going to replace need-based purchasing with interest-based purchasing.
It's insanely crazy.
$MARSCOIN
Today is another day of learning Robinhood.
As for the big bearish candle from last night's non-farm payroll data release,
I still haven't had time to review it.
One thing I did well this time was that a few minutes before the release,
I closed all positions that had little profit.
I kept only the positions that still had profit.
One thing I did poorly was that,
for my challenge account,
I should not gamble on such major data releases or event releases.
I should stop at a high point when appropriate;
I need to take this as a lesson for next time.
Another thing is that,
after this kind of big bearish candle finishes its drop, in the next 15 minutes, I should closely watch which symbol is relatively strong,
which symbol is more resilient,
which symbol can quickly recover from the bearish news,
while also having performed well recently.
Then, based on the recent overall trend being bullish, I should go long on that coin or stock.
This is also something not mentioned in the last painful lesson.
I think this is the most important point.
What matters most should not be losing money,
but the ability to rebound after losing money!
The ability to rebound after losing money!
The ability to rebound after losing money!
$MarsCoin
#比特币ETF创1月以来最大单日流入
As for the big bearish candle from last night's non-farm payroll data release,
I still haven't had time to review it.
One thing I did well this time was that a few minutes before the release,
I closed all positions that had little profit.
I kept only the positions that still had profit.
One thing I did poorly was that,
for my challenge account,
I should not gamble on such major data releases or event releases.
I should stop at a high point when appropriate;
I need to take this as a lesson for next time.
Another thing is that,
after this kind of big bearish candle finishes its drop, in the next 15 minutes, I should closely watch which symbol is relatively strong,
which symbol is more resilient,
which symbol can quickly recover from the bearish news,
while also having performed well recently.
Then, based on the recent overall trend being bullish, I should go long on that coin or stock.
This is also something not mentioned in the last painful lesson.
I think this is the most important point.
What matters most should not be losing money,
but the ability to rebound after losing money!
The ability to rebound after losing money!
The ability to rebound after losing money!
$MarsCoin
#比特币ETF创1月以来最大单日流入
疯狂的Jerrick
·
--
Challenge Account Backtest: 70% Drawdown—Blood and Tears Recap, Summary of 5 Fatal Mistakes!
Today, I’m going back to review and recap the issue of the challenge account dropping by 70%.
1. You grab too many of the so-called “shanzhai” coins at the same time, and you also don’t test their liquidity. Some of these coins have very poor liquidity and can be easily broken through. Then, with one big needle move, the slippage is extremely severe—especially those I thought were still at a low position, about to complete a catch-up rally. They can be wiped out in one pot very easily. For example: I saw that within Chinese listings, Binance Life had started rising, but the “lobster” and me—f*cking—were still at a low level, and there were signs it was about to move up. So I bided my time at the low level. But I also set my stop-loss too wide, so once the big cake starts poking needles, these coins that are still low get poked even harder. The stop-loss and slippage are still too large. The lesson here is: don’t hold too many shanzhai coins at the same time. Low-position shanzhai coins usually have terrible liquidity, so you need to be cautious when holding them.
1. You grab too many of the so-called “shanzhai” coins at the same time, and you also don’t test their liquidity. Some of these coins have very poor liquidity and can be easily broken through. Then, with one big needle move, the slippage is extremely severe—especially those I thought were still at a low position, about to complete a catch-up rally. They can be wiped out in one pot very easily. For example: I saw that within Chinese listings, Binance Life had started rising, but the “lobster” and me—f*cking—were still at a low level, and there were signs it was about to move up. So I bided my time at the low level. But I also set my stop-loss too wide, so once the big cake starts poking needles, these coins that are still low get poked even harder. The stop-loss and slippage are still too large. The lesson here is: don’t hold too many shanzhai coins at the same time. Low-position shanzhai coins usually have terrible liquidity, so you need to be cautious when holding them.
Privacy coins are really powerful.
This morning, when I saw DASH’s move, it suddenly made me realize.
If I still don’t position myself for the catch-up rally in privacy coins now,
I might not be able to buy good ones a bit later.
So I positioned myself in the secondary market with Rose, ZEN, and XMR.
Then I also went to the FOMO platform to position myself in XMR- and BEAM-related MEMEs.
https://fomo.family/r/CrazyJerrick, use this link for FOMO and get a 10% fee discount.
At the moment, Rose is the one performing the best. It started running not long after I bought it.
$ROSE
This morning, when I saw DASH’s move, it suddenly made me realize.
If I still don’t position myself for the catch-up rally in privacy coins now,
I might not be able to buy good ones a bit later.
So I positioned myself in the secondary market with Rose, ZEN, and XMR.
Then I also went to the FOMO platform to position myself in XMR- and BEAM-related MEMEs.
https://fomo.family/r/CrazyJerrick, use this link for FOMO and get a 10% fee discount.
At the moment, Rose is the one performing the best. It started running not long after I bought it.
$ROSE
There really is no shortage of opportunities in crypto!
But learning ability is really too important.
If you want to make money,
it can be about who can stay calmer.
It can be about who has stronger learning ability.
It can be about who has a sharper sense of capture.
It can be about who can hold on better and be more steady.
If you want to make money, when a new thing comes out, you only need to be a few hours, a few dozen minutes, or even a few seconds faster than others.
For example, if I had even a little bit of sharp observation,
I could have held onto a few of the main MEMEs on the Robinhood chain the day before yesterday, and I wouldn’t still be holding a pile of junk memes there, FOMOing now.
F-u-c-k....
But learning ability is really too important.
If you want to make money,
it can be about who can stay calmer.
It can be about who has stronger learning ability.
It can be about who has a sharper sense of capture.
It can be about who can hold on better and be more steady.
If you want to make money, when a new thing comes out, you only need to be a few hours, a few dozen minutes, or even a few seconds faster than others.
For example, if I had even a little bit of sharp observation,
I could have held onto a few of the main MEMEs on the Robinhood chain the day before yesterday, and I wouldn’t still be holding a pile of junk memes there, FOMOing now.
F-u-c-k....
I suddenly discovered a little linkage secret between gold and Bitcoin!
Gold has gone through roughly three waves from the start to now. Of course, the third wave is still in its early stage and hasn’t finished yet.
The first wave began around the morning of August 5th at about 08:00.
The second wave began around August 19th at about 20:00.
The third wave began around September 2nd at about 19:00.
When gold started its first wave, Bitcoin didn’t really react—it was still in a consolidation phase.
And it took 14 days from the start of wave 1 until the end of the correction.
When gold started its second wave, Bitcoin almost started at the same time as gold, and it kicked off a round of savage upward surge.
After gold’s second-wave rally reached its highest point, Bitcoin also reached its highest point within the next 2–3 hours, and then began a correction that lasted as long as 8 days.
And it took 14 days from the start of wave 2 until the end of the correction.
When gold started its third wave, Bitcoin happened to form the lowest point of the correction that followed the previous savage rally. Then Bitcoin kept climbing upward in small steps until around 8:00 PM on September 3rd, when it began to surge rapidly.
If wave 3 also took 14 days to complete its correction, then that would be around September 16th, right?
Looking at it this way, Bitcoin’s timing for these breakouts seems to be increasingly syncing with gold.
As long as gold rises well, Bitcoin rises well.
When gold surges aggressively, Bitcoin becomes even more aggressive.
Also, the magnitude of gold’s pullbacks is much larger than that of Bitcoin’s.
So the next Bitcoin high point depends on when gold shows serious negative feedback. And during the time period around the high point before gold first shows serious negative feedback, you can roughly guess the stretched peak high point of this round of Bitcoin.
$BTC
$XAU
#SEC新规拟吸引加密企业回流美国
The above is only my personal trading analysis record and does not constitute any investment advice.
Gold has gone through roughly three waves from the start to now. Of course, the third wave is still in its early stage and hasn’t finished yet.
The first wave began around the morning of August 5th at about 08:00.
The second wave began around August 19th at about 20:00.
The third wave began around September 2nd at about 19:00.
When gold started its first wave, Bitcoin didn’t really react—it was still in a consolidation phase.
And it took 14 days from the start of wave 1 until the end of the correction.
When gold started its second wave, Bitcoin almost started at the same time as gold, and it kicked off a round of savage upward surge.
After gold’s second-wave rally reached its highest point, Bitcoin also reached its highest point within the next 2–3 hours, and then began a correction that lasted as long as 8 days.
And it took 14 days from the start of wave 2 until the end of the correction.
When gold started its third wave, Bitcoin happened to form the lowest point of the correction that followed the previous savage rally. Then Bitcoin kept climbing upward in small steps until around 8:00 PM on September 3rd, when it began to surge rapidly.
If wave 3 also took 14 days to complete its correction, then that would be around September 16th, right?
Looking at it this way, Bitcoin’s timing for these breakouts seems to be increasingly syncing with gold.
As long as gold rises well, Bitcoin rises well.
When gold surges aggressively, Bitcoin becomes even more aggressive.
Also, the magnitude of gold’s pullbacks is much larger than that of Bitcoin’s.
So the next Bitcoin high point depends on when gold shows serious negative feedback. And during the time period around the high point before gold first shows serious negative feedback, you can roughly guess the stretched peak high point of this round of Bitcoin.
$BTC
$XAU
#SEC新规拟吸引加密企业回流美国
The above is only my personal trading analysis record and does not constitute any investment advice.
Will history repeat itself?
2026/08/22, 13:00,
This BTC needle-pointer—relative to the big surge in the earlier period—has been exactly 20 hours!
That caused all altcoins to pull back at least 15%！！
Almost all altcoin longs are crying with tears.
Analogizing to the previous time of a major BTC rally,
if another round of liquidating long leverage is coming,
what would the timing be?
I roughly calculated that it would be around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 5, 2026 (the peak of this major rally was at 05:30 on September 4, 2026).
By then, everyone would already be asleep.
The timing is pretty much perfect.
As for personal execution:
Tonight, depending on the situation, I will clean up all the altcoins.
I won’t hold altcoins overnight.
At the same time, during the day today I’ll do some short-term altcoin trades, with stop-loss settings relatively tighter.
Not a wide stop-loss—because if your stop-loss is less than 20%, it basically gets hit.
Also, based on lessons from the last experience,
for every position opened this time,
I must make sure I clearly know how much I would lose if the stop-loss is triggered for each position,
and set it within a range I can accept.
Not the case where if all positions really get caught by a big stop-loss,
then I’d end up regretting it.
#SEC新规拟吸引加密企业回流美国
2026/08/22, 13:00,
This BTC needle-pointer—relative to the big surge in the earlier period—has been exactly 20 hours!
That caused all altcoins to pull back at least 15%！！
Almost all altcoin longs are crying with tears.
Analogizing to the previous time of a major BTC rally,
if another round of liquidating long leverage is coming,
what would the timing be?
I roughly calculated that it would be around 2:00 a.m. Beijing time on September 5, 2026 (the peak of this major rally was at 05:30 on September 4, 2026).
By then, everyone would already be asleep.
The timing is pretty much perfect.
As for personal execution:
Tonight, depending on the situation, I will clean up all the altcoins.
I won’t hold altcoins overnight.
At the same time, during the day today I’ll do some short-term altcoin trades, with stop-loss settings relatively tighter.
Not a wide stop-loss—because if your stop-loss is less than 20%, it basically gets hit.
Also, based on lessons from the last experience,
for every position opened this time,
I must make sure I clearly know how much I would lose if the stop-loss is triggered for each position,
and set it within a range I can accept.
Not the case where if all positions really get caught by a big stop-loss,
then I’d end up regretting it.
#SEC新规拟吸引加密企业回流美国
疯狂的Jerrick
·
--
Challenge Account Backtest: 70% Drawdown—Blood and Tears Recap, Summary of 5 Fatal Mistakes!
Today, I’m going back to review and recap the issue of the challenge account dropping by 70%.
1. You grab too many of the so-called “shanzhai” coins at the same time, and you also don’t test their liquidity. Some of these coins have very poor liquidity and can be easily broken through. Then, with one big needle move, the slippage is extremely severe—especially those I thought were still at a low position, about to complete a catch-up rally. They can be wiped out in one pot very easily. For example: I saw that within Chinese listings, Binance Life had started rising, but the “lobster” and me—f*cking—were still at a low level, and there were signs it was about to move up. So I bided my time at the low level. But I also set my stop-loss too wide, so once the big cake starts poking needles, these coins that are still low get poked even harder. The stop-loss and slippage are still too large. The lesson here is: don’t hold too many shanzhai coins at the same time. Low-position shanzhai coins usually have terrible liquidity, so you need to be cautious when holding them.
1. You grab too many of the so-called “shanzhai” coins at the same time, and you also don’t test their liquidity. Some of these coins have very poor liquidity and can be easily broken through. Then, with one big needle move, the slippage is extremely severe—especially those I thought were still at a low position, about to complete a catch-up rally. They can be wiped out in one pot very easily. For example: I saw that within Chinese listings, Binance Life had started rising, but the “lobster” and me—f*cking—were still at a low level, and there were signs it was about to move up. So I bided my time at the low level. But I also set my stop-loss too wide, so once the big cake starts poking needles, these coins that are still low get poked even harder. The stop-loss and slippage are still too large. The lesson here is: don’t hold too many shanzhai coins at the same time. Low-position shanzhai coins usually have terrible liquidity, so you need to be cautious when holding them.
This morning I analyzed the possibility that before the release, SpaceX could see higher highs.
Now, let’s just blow the shorts in advance.
Actually, overall, when dealing with release events, you can’t be too hasty—don’t short too early.
I think today’s big surge in SpaceX might be something people didn’t expect!
On the news front, it’s basically StarLink landing in the UAE.
Although this is a long-term positive,
for the longs who want to blow out the shorts,
before the release they will also pull the price up at all costs after accumulating enough shares.
That’s also why this morning I said that generally, the closer it gets to the event, the higher the high point tends to be.
In terms of personal trading:
Tonight, I’m really a bit impatient, and I shorted around 148.
I think shorting at this level still has a pretty good risk-reward.
Because with expectations for the release,
shorts are much more likely to add positions at this point.
The only drawback is that this certainty is still slightly lacking.
Because we never know at what price point the longs will squeeze the shorts out.
Then it will start the long, drawn-out pullback.
Actually, I should have waited and done a right-sided setup—it would have been better. Instead, I ended up doing a left-sided one.
But since I already did it, I’ll set a stop-loss and watch the longs’ performance.
$SPCX
Now, let’s just blow the shorts in advance.
Actually, overall, when dealing with release events, you can’t be too hasty—don’t short too early.
I think today’s big surge in SpaceX might be something people didn’t expect!
On the news front, it’s basically StarLink landing in the UAE.
Although this is a long-term positive,
for the longs who want to blow out the shorts,
before the release they will also pull the price up at all costs after accumulating enough shares.
That’s also why this morning I said that generally, the closer it gets to the event, the higher the high point tends to be.
In terms of personal trading:
Tonight, I’m really a bit impatient, and I shorted around 148.
I think shorting at this level still has a pretty good risk-reward.
Because with expectations for the release,
shorts are much more likely to add positions at this point.
The only drawback is that this certainty is still slightly lacking.
Because we never know at what price point the longs will squeeze the shorts out.
Then it will start the long, drawn-out pullback.
Actually, I should have waited and done a right-sided setup—it would have been better. Instead, I ended up doing a left-sided one.
But since I already did it, I’ll set a stop-loss and watch the longs’ performance.
$SPCX
疯狂的Jerrick
·
--
I currently lean toward event (news)–driven trading. For each round of SpaceX share unlocks, I’ve done them, but every time the shorting timing isn’t good it makes your heart race. Especially the second time!
1. The first unlock was one day after the earnings report came out, so the day before the earnings report was released I didn’t dare to make a move. There was a decent pull-up and rally, and then right after the earnings report was released, the first wave of unlocks came immediately. At the time, I thought that from the time of listing to the first unlock, the stock had already fallen by about 50%. And most of that 50% was actually the market digesting expectations for the first unlock. So I didn’t hold a long-position short for a long time; instead, I went short first and then entered a long position. The reason was: when the negative news is already out, it goes up.
2. For the second unlock, I acted relatively early. Back then, I believed that before the second unlock, Spacex had already risen from 104 to 150—up about 50%. So I was bearish on the second unlock as well, and I placed short orders in advance (15/8) around the 140 area. But on 17/8 it surged to around 150, nearly hitting my stop-loss line. Fortunately, I still held on. In the end, I also exited in profit.
3. The third unlock is also coming soon (9/9). Personally, I think this unlock-related trade direction will definitely be short. But choosing the right timing to short is extremely important. Referring to the first two times: whether or not there is an earnings report, within one to two days before the unlock there will be a relatively high point formed. (The first time was affected by the earnings report, when it moved from 104 to 130; the second time was from 140 to 149.5.) So personally I prefer not to short too early, but to wait for one to two days before the unlock, see whether a higher high forms, and then short from that position.
4. In line with the way the first two unlocks played out, the period on the day of the unlock—from daytime until the market opens at 9:30pm—is the most certain window to short, because the price action during that window has been relatively smooth.
$SPCX
The above is only my personal trading analysis and record; it does not constitute any investment advice.
#SpaceX
1. The first unlock was one day after the earnings report came out, so the day before the earnings report was released I didn’t dare to make a move. There was a decent pull-up and rally, and then right after the earnings report was released, the first wave of unlocks came immediately. At the time, I thought that from the time of listing to the first unlock, the stock had already fallen by about 50%. And most of that 50% was actually the market digesting expectations for the first unlock. So I didn’t hold a long-position short for a long time; instead, I went short first and then entered a long position. The reason was: when the negative news is already out, it goes up.
2. For the second unlock, I acted relatively early. Back then, I believed that before the second unlock, Spacex had already risen from 104 to 150—up about 50%. So I was bearish on the second unlock as well, and I placed short orders in advance (15/8) around the 140 area. But on 17/8 it surged to around 150, nearly hitting my stop-loss line. Fortunately, I still held on. In the end, I also exited in profit.
3. The third unlock is also coming soon (9/9). Personally, I think this unlock-related trade direction will definitely be short. But choosing the right timing to short is extremely important. Referring to the first two times: whether or not there is an earnings report, within one to two days before the unlock there will be a relatively high point formed. (The first time was affected by the earnings report, when it moved from 104 to 130; the second time was from 140 to 149.5.) So personally I prefer not to short too early, but to wait for one to two days before the unlock, see whether a higher high forms, and then short from that position.
4. In line with the way the first two unlocks played out, the period on the day of the unlock—from daytime until the market opens at 9:30pm—is the most certain window to short, because the price action during that window has been relatively smooth.
$SPCX
The above is only my personal trading analysis and record; it does not constitute any investment advice.
#SpaceX
Log in to explore more content