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Historically, the Risk Index and Network Growth together have been a reliable leading indicator for #Bitcoin. In previous cycles, a sharp drop in Network Growth during a high risk environment has often appeared before strong bullish moves. This usually signals market reset before expansion. Since Bitcoin tends to react late, this setup could be hinting at a solid rally ahead if the pattern repeats.
Long term #Bitcoin holders have sold nearly 143,000 #BTC over the past month, according to Glassnode, marking the fastest selling pace since August. This shift highlights increased profit taking from experienced investors after recent price strength.
While it may add short term pressure on the market, similar patterns in the past have often appeared during periods of consolidation rather than clear reversals. The data suggests a changing dynamic in holder behavior that could influence Bitcoin’s near term direction.
While it may add short term pressure on the market, similar patterns in the past have often appeared during periods of consolidation rather than clear reversals. The data suggests a changing dynamic in holder behavior that could influence Bitcoin’s near term direction.
Despite a recent bounce, #BTC’s spot premium remains deeply negative. There is still little to no participation from US spot buyers. Price strength so far appears to be driven mainly by futures markets and leveraged positioning. Short covering continues to outweigh genuine demand.
Without improvement in the spot premium, this recovery lacks strong confirmation. For the move to hold and extend, real spot buying needs to step in rather than reliance on leverage alone.
Without improvement in the spot premium, this recovery lacks strong confirmation. For the move to hold and extend, real spot buying needs to step in rather than reliance on leverage alone.
Liquidity conditions are often the first place to look when evaluating whether the market is preparing for a sustained rally. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90 day SMA) has historically played a key role in this assessment, with a sustained move above the 5 level indicating renewed liquidity inflows.
Such a shift usually reflects improving market participation and stronger conviction among investors. Without this confirmation, upward price movement tends to remain vulnerable and lacks the backing of broad capital involvement.
Such a shift usually reflects improving market participation and stronger conviction among investors. Without this confirmation, upward price movement tends to remain vulnerable and lacks the backing of broad capital involvement.
Monthly #BTC inflows to Binance have dropped to around 5.7k BTC, the lowest level since 2020. This is less than half of the historical average of about 12k BTC and has remained consistently low for several months, pointing to a structural shift rather than a temporary drop.
Since #BTC inflows to exchanges are typically linked to selling pressure, this decline suggests investors are choosing to hold instead of sell. Overall, despite market consolidation and macro uncertainty, the signal remains positive, showing accumulation rather than distribution.
Since #BTC inflows to exchanges are typically linked to selling pressure, this decline suggests investors are choosing to hold instead of sell. Overall, despite market consolidation and macro uncertainty, the signal remains positive, showing accumulation rather than distribution.
#Bitcoin’s Regime Score has improved sharply, climbing 21 points in just three days from -36.8 to -15.7, while price has moved up only 1.4%. This kind of divergence suggests the market’s underlying structure is stabilizing ahead of price, which often happens during early recovery phases.
The key event today is the FOMC meeting. The interest rate outcome is already reflected in market expectations, so the real impact will come from Jerome Powell’s language. Subtle changes in his stance on inflation, growth, or future policy could quickly shift sentiment in both crypto and traditional markets.
The key event today is the FOMC meeting. The interest rate outcome is already reflected in market expectations, so the real impact will come from Jerome Powell’s language. Subtle changes in his stance on inflation, growth, or future policy could quickly shift sentiment in both crypto and traditional markets.
Perpetual futures show a cautious market. Open interest is falling, meaning traders are reducing positions rather than adding new leverage. Funding rates near neutral suggest the move is not driven by excessive longs. This looks more like controlled risk management than panic selling. Lower leverage reduces downside risk but the lack of open interest growth also signals weak upside conviction.
There is still no indication of fresh buying interest, as the 30 day SMA of net flows for both #Bitcoin and #Ethereum spot ETFs remains negative. This reflects ongoing outflows and a lack of conviction from larger investors.
Until inflows return and stabilize, the broader market is likely to stay cautious, with price movements driven more by short term traders than long term demand.
Until inflows return and stabilize, the broader market is likely to stay cautious, with price movements driven more by short term traders than long term demand.
#Ethereum transaction fees are now at their cheapest point since May 2017. This reflects a much calmer network, where sending transactions costs significantly less than usual. Lower fees make Ethereum more user friendly and can encourage more activity from builders and users, even if overall demand on the network is currently quiet 🔥
#Ethereum transaction fees are now at their cheapest point since May 2017. This reflects a much calmer network, where sending transactions costs significantly less than usual. Lower fees make Ethereum more user friendly and can encourage more activity from builders and users, even if overall demand on the network is currently quiet 🔥
#XRP open interest on #Binance peaked at $1.76B in July but then dropped sharply as the price fell from $3.55 to $1.83. After heavy liquidations, open interest slipped below $500M and has stayed low since the October 10 event. Overall, open interest is down nearly 60%, that means strong deleveraging. Historically, such phases help reset the market and have often been followed by a bullish recovery once interest returns.
CryptoQuant data shows that #Bitcoin has suffered about $4.5 billion in realized losses, the highest figure in the last three years. Heavy selling from investors locking in losses, a behavior often seen during intense fear phases. In previous cycles, moments like this have sometimes signaled that the market is nearing exhaustion.
#Bitcoin is trading at $87.3K after a sharp drop, placing price right at a critical on chain area. The spot price is now well below the STH cost basis at $96.5K, meaning most short-term holders are underwater, which often increases fear and reactive selling. At the same time, price is sitting just under the Active Investors Mean at $87.5K, a level that can decide short term direction.
Holding or reclaiming this zone could help stabilize the market, while failure may invite further downside toward the True Market Mean at $80.7K, a level that has historically acted as strong support during corrections. From a broader perspective, the Realized Price at $56.0K remains far below spot and continues to define long term market value.
Holding or reclaiming this zone could help stabilize the market, while failure may invite further downside toward the True Market Mean at $80.7K, a level that has historically acted as strong support during corrections. From a broader perspective, the Realized Price at $56.0K remains far below spot and continues to define long term market value.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Net Realized PnL has dropped to a level not seen since March 2022. This indicates widespread loss realization across the market, reflecting strong selling pressure and investor fear. In previous cycles, similar phases have often occurred near periods of market reset, when risk is high but long term opportunities begin to form.
As price pushed higher, ATM implied volatility continued to be sold, indicating that the move was being used as an opportunity to offload risk. Gamma sellers stepped in to harvest premium rather than position for further upside. This divergence between rising price and softening volatility points to controlled, mechanical buying instead of aggressive breakout demand. Historically, this type of volatility response does not align with moves that develop into sustained breakouts.
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