Bitcoin's Roadmap to the Bottom — 4 Levels to Watch
Which 4 levels am I watching in Bitcoin?
4 key realized price levels — essential for tracking the long-term trend in my view.
Realized Price → 54.7K
LTH Whales → 41.6K
New Whales → 88.7K
Binance User Deposit Address RP → 58.7K
Bitcoin has been dropping ever since it lost the New Whales' cost basis — a classic bear cycle signal.
From here, the 2 key supports I'll be watching in order are Binance UDA RP and Bitcoin RP (58.7K and 54.7K). The reason: once Bitcoin falls below New Whales' cost basis, it historically tends to at least test the Realized Price. And the only support standing between here and there is 58.7K.
The question is — will these 2 critical levels hold as support?
Or will we feel the deeper, colder waters down to our bones?
Capitulation With Support: Who Is Buying Bitcoin While the Market Bleeds?
In-depth data, including all metric breakdowns and visual trend analysis, is available in the full infographic. The information below is an executive summary of the on-chain panorama.
Bitcoin remains in capitulation, with strong selling pressure and extreme fear in the market. However, accumulators, retail, and miners are acting as a geological support, even if just for a brief moment, sustaining the price between $66K and $70K.
On-chain analysis indicates that Bitcoin has not experienced a more severe correction so far due to the joint action of this group. But even with this action, it is unlikely that they will prevent the asset from reaching the $55K region, which corresponds to its Realized Price.
What is left for the investor? Protect their capital and be prepared for the subsequent accumulation phase.
PILLARS OF BITCOIN'S CURRENT GEOLOGICAL SUPPORT
ACCUMULATORS
◾ Above-average demand → 371.9K BTC (vs. 30-day SMA of 299.1K).
◾ Behavior → continuing to buy even in a capitulation scenario.
◾ Strategic Impact → provide a support base, reducing the risk of an immediate collapse.
RETAIL
◾ 30-day participation → +6,384 BTC.
◾ Behavior → small investors accumulating amidst extreme fear.
◾ Strategic Impact → reinforce distributed holding, preventing selling pressure from being fully absorbed.
MINERS
◾ MPI → -1.11 — sharp reduction in BTC sent to exchanges.
◾ Puell Multiple → 0.77 — low revenue, but a signal of accumulation.
◾ Strategic Impact → act as stabilizing agents, holding supply and preventing excess liquidity.
CONCLUSION
Despite the geological support from accumulators, retail, and miners, the trend points toward a test of $55K. Protecting capital now means ensuring strategic positioning in the next phase.
Turkish Lira Hits All-Time Low Against USD – 97% Depreciation Since 2008
BREAKING 🚨 | Türkiye
The Turkish Lira has fallen to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar.
The TRY/USD parity declined to 0.02245, marking a new historic low.
📉 Since peaking at 0.87140 USD in 2008, the lira has lost approximately 97.42% of its value against the dollar.
The 18-year chart shows a persistent and uninterrupted downward primary trend.
This chart reflects more than a currency movement; it represents a structural transformation in Turkey’s monetary framework. The post-2008 depreciation can be analyzed across three fundamental axes:
1️⃣ Weakening of Price Stability
Prolonged periods of negative real interest rates combined with persistently high inflation have systematically eroded the lira’s purchasing power.
2️⃣ Risk Premium and Confidence Erosion
Rising CDS spreads, capital outflows, and sustained dollarization have entrenched structural pressure on the currency.
3️⃣ External Financing Vulnerability
A structurally persistent current account deficit and substantial external financing needs have made the lira highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.
THE BIG PICTURE
The 97.42% depreciation is not merely a nominal currency adjustment;
• A decline in income measured in USD terms
• A deterioration in wealth distribution dynamics
• A distortion in pricing behavior
• Structural dollarization pressures
This is not simply a technical low; it is the cumulative outcome of a prolonged price stability challenge within the Turkish economy.
Sustainable improvement will require credible monetary policy, anchored inflation expectations, institutional predictability, and a strengthened external balance framework.
Turkish Lira Hits All-Time Low Against USD – 97% Depreciation Since 2008
BREAKING 🚨 | Türkiye
The Turkish Lira has fallen to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar.
The TRY/USD parity declined to 0.02245, marking a new historic low.
📉 Since peaking at 0.87140 USD in 2008, the lira has lost approximately 97.42% of its value against the dollar.
The 18-year chart shows a persistent and uninterrupted downward primary trend.
This chart reflects more than a currency movement; it represents a structural transformation in Turkey’s monetary framework. The post-2008 depreciation can be analyzed across three fundamental axes:
1️⃣ Weakening of Price Stability
Prolonged periods of negative real interest rates combined with persistently high inflation have systematically eroded the lira’s purchasing power.
2️⃣ Risk Premium and Confidence Erosion
Rising CDS spreads, capital outflows, and sustained dollarization have entrenched structural pressure on the currency.
3️⃣ External Financing Vulnerability
A structurally persistent current account deficit and substantial external financing needs have made the lira highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.
THE BIG PICTURE
The 97.42% depreciation is not merely a nominal currency adjustment;
• A decline in income measured in USD terms
• A deterioration in wealth distribution dynamics
• A distortion in pricing behavior
• Structural dollarization pressures
This is not simply a technical low; it is the cumulative outcome of a prolonged price stability challenge within the Turkish economy.
Sustainable improvement will require credible monetary policy, anchored inflation expectations, institutional predictability, and a strengthened external balance framework.
Turkish Lira Hits All-Time Low Against USD – 97% Depreciation Since 2008
BREAKING 🚨 | Türkiye
The Turkish Lira has fallen to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar.
The TRY/USD parity declined to 0.02245, marking a new historic low.
📉 Since peaking at 0.87140 USD in 2008, the lira has lost approximately 97.42% of its value against the dollar.
The 18-year chart shows a persistent and uninterrupted downward primary trend.
This chart reflects more than a currency movement; it represents a structural transformation in Turkey’s monetary framework. The post-2008 depreciation can be analyzed across three fundamental axes:
1️⃣ Weakening of Price Stability
Prolonged periods of negative real interest rates combined with persistently high inflation have systematically eroded the lira’s purchasing power.
2️⃣ Risk Premium and Confidence Erosion
Rising CDS spreads, capital outflows, and sustained dollarization have entrenched structural pressure on the currency.
3️⃣ External Financing Vulnerability
A structurally persistent current account deficit and substantial external financing needs have made the lira highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.
THE BIG PICTURE
The 97.42% depreciation is not merely a nominal currency adjustment;
• A decline in income measured in USD terms
• A deterioration in wealth distribution dynamics
• A distortion in pricing behavior
• Structural dollarization pressures
This is not simply a technical low; it is the cumulative outcome of a prolonged price stability challenge within the Turkish economy.
Sustainable improvement will require credible monetary policy, anchored inflation expectations, institutional predictability, and a strengthened external balance framework.
Turkish Lira Hits All-Time Low Against USD – 97% Depreciation Since 2008
BREAKING 🚨 | Türkiye
The Turkish Lira has fallen to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar.
The TRY/USD parity declined to 0.02245, marking a new historic low.
📉 Since peaking at 0.87140 USD in 2008, the lira has lost approximately 97.42% of its value against the dollar.
The 18-year chart shows a persistent and uninterrupted downward primary trend.
This chart reflects more than a currency movement; it represents a structural transformation in Turkey’s monetary framework. The post-2008 depreciation can be analyzed across three fundamental axes:
1️⃣ Weakening of Price Stability
Prolonged periods of negative real interest rates combined with persistently high inflation have systematically eroded the lira’s purchasing power.
2️⃣ Risk Premium and Confidence Erosion
Rising CDS spreads, capital outflows, and sustained dollarization have entrenched structural pressure on the currency.
3️⃣ External Financing Vulnerability
A structurally persistent current account deficit and substantial external financing needs have made the lira highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.
THE BIG PICTURE
The 97.42% depreciation is not merely a nominal currency adjustment;
• A decline in income measured in USD terms
• A deterioration in wealth distribution dynamics
• A distortion in pricing behavior
• Structural dollarization pressures
This is not simply a technical low; it is the cumulative outcome of a prolonged price stability challenge within the Turkish economy.
Sustainable improvement will require credible monetary policy, anchored inflation expectations, institutional predictability, and a strengthened external balance framework.
Turkish Lira Hits All-Time Low Against USD – 97% Depreciation Since 2008
BREAKING 🚨 | Türkiye
The Turkish Lira has fallen to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar.
The TRY/USD parity declined to 0.02245, marking a new historic low.
📉 Since peaking at 0.87140 USD in 2008, the lira has lost approximately 97.42% of its value against the dollar.
The 18-year chart shows a persistent and uninterrupted downward primary trend.
This chart reflects more than a currency movement; it represents a structural transformation in Turkey’s monetary framework. The post-2008 depreciation can be analyzed across three fundamental axes:
1️⃣ Weakening of Price Stability
Prolonged periods of negative real interest rates combined with persistently high inflation have systematically eroded the lira’s purchasing power.
2️⃣ Risk Premium and Confidence Erosion
Rising CDS spreads, capital outflows, and sustained dollarization have entrenched structural pressure on the currency.
3️⃣ External Financing Vulnerability
A structurally persistent current account deficit and substantial external financing needs have made the lira highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.
THE BIG PICTURE
The 97.42% depreciation is not merely a nominal currency adjustment;
• A decline in income measured in USD terms
• A deterioration in wealth distribution dynamics
• A distortion in pricing behavior
• Structural dollarization pressures
This is not simply a technical low; it is the cumulative outcome of a prolonged price stability challenge within the Turkish economy.
Sustainable improvement will require credible monetary policy, anchored inflation expectations, institutional predictability, and a strengthened external balance framework.
Turkish Lira Hits All-Time Low Against USD – 97% Depreciation Since 2008
BREAKING 🚨 | Türkiye
The Turkish Lira has fallen to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar.
The TRY/USD parity declined to 0.02245, marking a new historic low.
📉 Since peaking at 0.87140 USD in 2008, the lira has lost approximately 97.42% of its value against the dollar.
The 18-year chart shows a persistent and uninterrupted downward primary trend.
This chart reflects more than a currency movement; it represents a structural transformation in Turkey’s monetary framework. The post-2008 depreciation can be analyzed across three fundamental axes:
1️⃣ Weakening of Price Stability
Prolonged periods of negative real interest rates combined with persistently high inflation have systematically eroded the lira’s purchasing power.
2️⃣ Risk Premium and Confidence Erosion
Rising CDS spreads, capital outflows, and sustained dollarization have entrenched structural pressure on the currency.
3️⃣ External Financing Vulnerability
A structurally persistent current account deficit and substantial external financing needs have made the lira highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.
THE BIG PICTURE
The 97.42% depreciation is not merely a nominal currency adjustment;
• A decline in income measured in USD terms
• A deterioration in wealth distribution dynamics
• A distortion in pricing behavior
• Structural dollarization pressures
This is not simply a technical low; it is the cumulative outcome of a prolonged price stability challenge within the Turkish economy.
Sustainable improvement will require credible monetary policy, anchored inflation expectations, institutional predictability, and a strengthened external balance framework.
Turkish Lira Hits All-Time Low Against USD – 97% Depreciation Since 2008
BREAKING 🚨 | Türkiye
The Turkish Lira has fallen to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar.
The TRY/USD parity declined to 0.02245, marking a new historic low.
📉 Since peaking at 0.87140 USD in 2008, the lira has lost approximately 97.42% of its value against the dollar.
The 18-year chart shows a persistent and uninterrupted downward primary trend.
This chart reflects more than a currency movement; it represents a structural transformation in Turkey’s monetary framework. The post-2008 depreciation can be analyzed across three fundamental axes:
1️⃣ Weakening of Price Stability
Prolonged periods of negative real interest rates combined with persistently high inflation have systematically eroded the lira’s purchasing power.
2️⃣ Risk Premium and Confidence Erosion
Rising CDS spreads, capital outflows, and sustained dollarization have entrenched structural pressure on the currency.
3️⃣ External Financing Vulnerability
A structurally persistent current account deficit and substantial external financing needs have made the lira highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.
THE BIG PICTURE
The 97.42% depreciation is not merely a nominal currency adjustment;
• A decline in income measured in USD terms
• A deterioration in wealth distribution dynamics
• A distortion in pricing behavior
• Structural dollarization pressures
This is not simply a technical low; it is the cumulative outcome of a prolonged price stability challenge within the Turkish economy.
Sustainable improvement will require credible monetary policy, anchored inflation expectations, institutional predictability, and a strengthened external balance framework.
Turkish Lira Hits All-Time Low Against USD – 97% Depreciation Since 2008
BREAKING 🚨 | Türkiye
The Turkish Lira has fallen to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar.
The TRY/USD parity declined to 0.02245, marking a new historic low.
📉 Since peaking at 0.87140 USD in 2008, the lira has lost approximately 97.42% of its value against the dollar.
The 18-year chart shows a persistent and uninterrupted downward primary trend.
This chart reflects more than a currency movement; it represents a structural transformation in Turkey’s monetary framework. The post-2008 depreciation can be analyzed across three fundamental axes:
1️⃣ Weakening of Price Stability
Prolonged periods of negative real interest rates combined with persistently high inflation have systematically eroded the lira’s purchasing power.
2️⃣ Risk Premium and Confidence Erosion
Rising CDS spreads, capital outflows, and sustained dollarization have entrenched structural pressure on the currency.
3️⃣ External Financing Vulnerability
A structurally persistent current account deficit and substantial external financing needs have made the lira highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.
THE BIG PICTURE
The 97.42% depreciation is not merely a nominal currency adjustment;
• A decline in income measured in USD terms
• A deterioration in wealth distribution dynamics
• A distortion in pricing behavior
• Structural dollarization pressures
This is not simply a technical low; it is the cumulative outcome of a prolonged price stability challenge within the Turkish economy.
Sustainable improvement will require credible monetary policy, anchored inflation expectations, institutional predictability, and a strengthened external balance framework.
Turkish Lira Hits All-Time Low Against USD – 97% Depreciation Since 2008
BREAKING 🚨 | Türkiye
The Turkish Lira has fallen to an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar.
The TRY/USD parity declined to 0.02245, marking a new historic low.
📉 Since peaking at 0.87140 USD in 2008, the lira has lost approximately 97.42% of its value against the dollar.
The 18-year chart shows a persistent and uninterrupted downward primary trend.
This chart reflects more than a currency movement; it represents a structural transformation in Turkey’s monetary framework. The post-2008 depreciation can be analyzed across three fundamental axes:
1️⃣ Weakening of Price Stability
Prolonged periods of negative real interest rates combined with persistently high inflation have systematically eroded the lira’s purchasing power.
2️⃣ Risk Premium and Confidence Erosion
Rising CDS spreads, capital outflows, and sustained dollarization have entrenched structural pressure on the currency.
3️⃣ External Financing Vulnerability
A structurally persistent current account deficit and substantial external financing needs have made the lira highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions.
THE BIG PICTURE
The 97.42% depreciation is not merely a nominal currency adjustment;
• A decline in income measured in USD terms
• A deterioration in wealth distribution dynamics
• A distortion in pricing behavior
• Structural dollarization pressures
This is not simply a technical low; it is the cumulative outcome of a prolonged price stability challenge within the Turkish economy.
Sustainable improvement will require credible monetary policy, anchored inflation expectations, institutional predictability, and a strengthened external balance framework.
Record-High Global Uncertainty and Quiet On-Chain Signals — Where EPU and SOPR Stand (Analysis Re...
The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (EPU) has recently reached a new historical high, surpassing the pandemic peak of 2020. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry notes that elevated policy uncertainty suppresses corporate investment and household consumption, potentially triggering self-reinforcing economic slowdowns. Uncertainty is not merely sentiment — it materially affects real economic activity.
In 2020, the EPU spike was driven by a clear external shock: COVID-19. Central banks responded swiftly with zero rates and quantitative easing, restoring confidence. In 2023, uncertainty rose again amid U.S. regional bank stress and debt ceiling tensions, but inflation moderation and policy clarity gradually stabilized markets.
The current surge is different. Trade friction, geopolitical fragmentation, divergent monetary paths, and election-related risks are unfolding simultaneously. This reflects structural policy regime uncertainty rather than a single crisis event.
On-chain data provides contrast. The SOPR Ratio (LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR) measures profit realization between long- and short-term holders. SOPR above 1 indicates profit-taking; below 1 signals loss realization. In 2020 and 2023, spikes in EPU coincided with sharp drops in short-term SOPR, confirming panic-driven capitulation.
Recently, however, despite record-high EPU, SOPR has not collapsed. Long-term holders are not aggressively distributing, and broad capitulation remains absent.
Peak uncertainty does not automatically signal a bottom. The divergence between record EPU and relatively stable SOPR suggests a structural uncertainty phase rather than an acute shock. The next turning point depends on whether fear converts into sustained loss realization.
Bitcoin Inflows to Binance Have Reached 363,000 BTC Since the Beginning of 2026
Binance's cumulative Bitcoin inflow data paints a clear picture of the volume of inflows into the platform since the beginning of 2026. The cumulative inflow has reached approximately 363,328 BTC since January 1, a figure that reflects high activity over a relatively short period of just seven weeks.
The cumulative curve follows a consistent upward trajectory, indicating that the inflows were not the result of a single exceptional event, but rather occurred in successive waves of deposits. The pace accelerated noticeably during late January and early February, with the curve rising more sharply, suggesting an increase in transfers from private wallets to the exchange.
Significant inflows to exchanges are typically interpreted as a sign of readiness to sell or to use Bitcoin for spot trading or derivatives. With inflows since the beginning of 2026 exceeding 363,000 BTC, this represents a potential supply increase that could impact market equilibrium, especially if it coincides with weak spot demand.
Conversely, increased inflows do not necessarily indicate immediate selling pressure. Some of these movements may be related to institutional repositioning, the use of Bitcoin as collateral in derivatives contracts, or the exploitation of price spreads between exchanges. Therefore, this indicator should be interpreted alongside other metrics such as net flows, spot trading volume, and open interest in derivatives.
The surge in inflows to Binance since the beginning of 2026 reflects an active and potentially volatile market environment, with growing amounts of Bitcoin available for trading. If this trend continues without clear absorption on the demand side, it could increase the likelihood of volatility, while a decline may signal a return to accumulation and a reduction in the supply available for sale.
Looking at the last 6 months, there was a clear wave of selling. Long-term holders (LTHs) slowly distributed their coins while the price was high. But something changed after January 12, 2026.
Buying returned, but is it enough?
When the price dropped to the 62-68K range, LTHs stopped selling and started accumulating. The YTD data makes this very clear. Daily average accumulation climbed to 115 BTC, while selling pressure nearly vanished. The most patient hands in the market started putting skin in the game.
The real question: Can these LTH purchases push the price higher?
The answer to both questions is no — neither enough, nor capable of pushing price up. LTHs are buying, but there's no momentum. Whether this accumulation gains traction in the coming weeks is the key signal to watch. Because historically, this pattern lines up with the calm before a major move.
At the very least, we can say the LTH selling pressure is over — for now.
Bitcoin’s Short-Term Sharpe Ratio Just Hit a Level Historically Reserved for Generational Buying ...
The four red circles mark the most extreme negative readings of Bitcoin's short-term Sharpe Ratio (currently at -38.38), and each prior instance aligned almost perfectly with major cyclical price bottoms — 2015, 2019, and late 2022.
The current reading is now matching that same threshold.
The Sharpe Ratio measures risk-adjusted return. A deeply negative short-term reading doesn't simply mean poor performance, it means the asset is delivering maximum pain per unit of volatility. In other words, the drawdown is sharp, fast, and emotionally punishing. For most participants, this is the point of capitulation.
BTC is a structurally cyclical asset, driven by halving-induced supply shocks, liquidity cycles, and sentiment extremes. Historically, its deepest Sharpe troughs have not marked the beginning of prolonged bear markets, they have marked the exhaustion of selling pressure.
The arrows in the chart illustrate this clearly: each prior extreme negative reading was followed by violent recoveries to new highs.
From a probabilistic standpoint based on historical precedent, the risk-reward here is asymmetrically favorable for medium to long-term positioning. The downside appears largely priced into momentum indicators.
The key risk is a macro liquidity shock that could extend the trough. But historically, buying extreme Sharpe lows in BTC has been one of the highest-conviction setups the market offers.
Buyers Step in At Lows, Yet the Market Lacks Follow Through
Market tone remains cautious and risk-off, but conditions have shifted from capitulation to early stabilization. The early-February selloff coincided with a sharp leverage reset: open interest dropped hard and funding flipped deeply negative, consistent with a forced unwind and broad de-risking rather than an orderly rotation.
Since the flush, the tape is showing tentative demand returning at lower levels. Taker flow has intermittently moved back into buy-dominant territory (buy/sell ratio above 1.0 around the mid-to-high $60Ks), implying buyers are again crossing the spread and absorbing offers. However, the signal still looks tactical rather than structural: taker dominance has not been consistently sustained, and spot participation has not yet shown a clear, durable expansion relative to its recent range.
Net result: the market is likely in a post-shock consolidation phase participants are probing for a base, but conviction is still thin. A more constructive shift would usually be confirmed by (1) persistent taker-buy dominance over multiple sessions, (2) spot volume rising meaningfully versus its recent baseline, and (3) funding normalizing toward neutral while open interest rebuilds gradually rather than surging in a single wave. Until those conditions strengthen, the prevailing mood stays defensive, with rebounds prone to being sold into and volatility remaining elevated.
Ethereum Open Interest Down 66% While Binance Holds 35% Market Share
Since its last all time high, the ongoing correction on Ethereum continues to put investors under significant strain, particularly traders active in derivatives markets.
Open interest on Ethereum has fallen by more than 66%, dropping from $33.3B to $11.4B. In other words, the notional value committed to futures contracts has been divided by three, highlighting the scale of the market disengagement.
This sharp contraction in open interest directly reflects the impact of the correction on leveraged positions.
The decline has been widespread across major platforms.
Binance recorded a 68.2% drop in ETH open interest, OKX saw a 63.5% decrease, while Bybit experienced the steepest fall at 72.6%.
Despite this, Binance still holds the largest share of Ethereum open interest, accounting for more than 35% of positions among the CEXs considered, followed by Gate.io with 23.4% and Bybit with 14.4%.
Several factors explain this abrupt drop in open interest :
- The current environment remains uncertain, and the continuation of Bitcoin’s correction is prompting traders to reduce risk exposure and close positions.
- The volatility has triggered a wave of liquidations, particularly among investors attempting to trade against the prevailing trend wich erased a large amount of liquidity
- Because this is notional open interest, the decline in ETH’s price mechanically reduces the value of outstanding futures positions even when contract sizes remain unchanged.
In this context, the sharp contraction in open interest signals a period of stress in Ethereum’s derivatives market.
While this deleveraging phase may help cleanse excess leverage and strengthen market structure over the medium term, it also reflects the strong risk aversion currently dominating sentiment.
Until confidence and market sentiment recover sustainably, derivatives are likely to remain a primary source of selling pressure.
4-Week Streak of Outflows: Bitcoin ETFs Face Persistent Institutional Selling
Bitcoin Spot ETFs have recorded their fourth consecutive week of negative net flows, highlighting a prolonged period of institutional risk-off behavior. Since mid-January, the dominant trend has been characterized by consistent capital outflows rather than accumulation.
Data Breakdown:
The bearish trend began the week of Jan 19, 2026, and persisted through last week.
Peak Selling: The most aggressive selling occurred during the week of Feb 02, driven largely by IBIT (BlackRock), which saw a massive index outflow of -626.
Last Week (commencing Feb 09): Although the intensity of the selling decelerated compared to the peak (with IBIT outflows dropping to ~-225), the aggregate flow remained negative, marking the fourth straight week of red bars.
Conclusion:
While the deceleration in selling pressure last week offers some relief, the absence of positive inflows indicates that institutional sentiment remains cautious. The market effectively remains in a “distribution” phase until we see a definitive return to green weekly inflows.
Is Binance Actually Losing Dominance? a Data-Driven Look At Market Share, Cycles, and CEX Capital...
The idea that Binance is "losing control" spreads faster than the data behind it. Yes, Binance has given up roughly 2.31 percentage points of BTC spot market share over the past 365 days through February 2026. That's real. What's misleading is the conclusion.
Market share change measures direction, not dominance. Binance remains the largest BTC spot venue by a wide margin. This isn't collapse—it's controlled contraction as activity redistributes across more venues.
That redistribution is the real story. The share hasn't flowed to one successor but fragmented. Gate.io gained nearly three percentage points, while KuCoin and MEXC absorbed smaller portions. On the regulated side, Bullish picked up meaningful share—institutional liquidity finding purpose-built infrastructure rather than rotating between legacy giants.
What's often missed: Binance isn't even the weakest performer. Bybit lost more market share over the same period, despite being framed as the primary alternative during Binance's regulatory stress. That gap between narrative and data matters for traders repositioning based on perception rather than measured flow.
Zooming out, the pattern is cyclical. Binance historically loses share during bull markets as liquidity spreads toward regulated on-ramps like Coinbase and altcoin-focused exchanges, then regains it as conditions cool and capital consolidates back into the deepest pools. This drawdown fits that pattern and is already moderating.
The true insight isn't failure—it's maturation. The CEX landscape is deeper, more distributed, and more selective than two years ago. Binance is leaking share in a competitive cycle, not bleeding relevance. Confusing those two leads to conclusions history—and data—repeatedly prove wrong.