CryptoQuant Quicktake

Long-Term Holder SOPR (30D SMA) is compressing toward the neutral level (~1), reflecting a contraction in realized profits among long-term holders.

This metric captures whether coins held for more than 155 days are being spent at a profit or loss, representing the realized behavior of long-term holders.

Historically, sustained resets of LTH-SOPR toward or below 1 have aligned with phases of profit-taking exhaustion and structural reset in the market.

During prior cycle bottoms, LTH-SOPR moved decisively below 1, signaling that long-term holders were realizing losses and that capitulation had emerged.

In contrast, LTH-SOPR is stabilizing near 1, without entering the deeply negative regime seen during prior bottoms.

This suggests that while profit-taking pressure has been largely absorbed, the market has not yet entered the structural stress typically associated with major accumulation phases.

Source: CryptoQuant

Written by Zizcrypto

The number of addresses depositing BTC on exchanges is currently collapsing, a clear signal of slowing activity across the market.

With around 31,000 addresses depositing BTC per day (30-dma), the indicator has now reached its lowest level of the past ten years.

For comparison, the annual average stands near 47,000 addresses, bringing overall activity back to levels last observed in 2017.

Historically, this type of sharp contraction in the number of depositing addresses tends to occur when bear markets are in advanced phases as the interest in the market gradually fades.

This trend highlights several key points :

- First, during prolonged correction phases, some investors completely disengages from the market. This loss of interest is also reflected in the decline of active addresses, indicating that fewer participants are interacting with the network.

- Second, current price levels do not appear to incentivize investors to move their BTC to exchanges in order to sell. On the contrary, they seem to favor a holding strategy, keeping their coins while waiting for more favorable market conditions.

- Third, the structure of the market has evolved over recent years. A growing share of investors now prefers self custody solutions or decentralized trading platforms, allowing them to maintain direct control over their assets and reduce their exposure to counterparty risk associated with centralized platforms, particularly after major events such as the collapse of FTX.

The sharp decline in depositing addresses on exchanges therefore reflects a market characterized by gradual participant disengagement and a clear slowdown in activity. Although such an environment is typically unfavorable in the short term, these phases often coincide with periods where selling pressure progressively exhausts itself.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin consolidates the $71,413 level, driven by the tactical relief of the US-Iran ceasefire. However, the rally faces a critical structural divergence: while buying aggression on Binance operates at extreme levels (Taker Buy Sell Ratio at 1.70) and the BTC - Price & OI Change 24h marks $6.580 billion and 24h%: 5.88%, the indicator that monitors capital backing, the Binance USDT Refresh Rate Z-Score (SMA-30), registers -1.58, confirming a statistical state of Systemic Liquidity Depletion.

INSTITUTIONAL INTERPRETATION AND MACRO CROSS-ANALYSIS

The abrupt drop in Brent crude (-12%) deflates the energy risk premium, theoretically favoring risk assets. However, the buying inertia in the derivatives of the globe's largest exchange is detached from real cash flow. In CryptoQuant's taxonomy, the -1.58 Z-Score reveals "Phantom Leverage": the market aggressively pushes the price using unrealized profits as margin, without the necessary injection of new USDT to sustain the order book. The fact that gold and Treasuries still attract flows confirms that institutional capital remains in a defensive mode, despite the euphoria of leveraged retail.

PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT (ASYMMETRY)

The asymmetry turns drastically against the longs. With liquidity in statistical depletion, the probability of a Long Squeeze becomes the most heavily weighted event for the short term. The current rally is a fragile "supply vacuum"; without the immediate entry of fresh capital to absorb possible profit-taking, local support becomes volatile.

CONCLUSION

Bitcoin at $71k reflects diplomatic optimism, but the -1.58 Z-Score on Binance is an out-of-gas warning: the market is accelerating with its stablecoin tank on reserve, making a correction a mathematical inevitability, and not just a scenario.

Written by GugaOnChain

My answer is a clear no.

Why?

Macroeconomic risks are still on the table — tight liquidity, elevated interest rates, bond market pressure, and more. On top of that, looking at Bitcoin's own internal dynamics, a bull market requires a weekly close above the STH Realized Price first, then above the SMA365. Have we seen either of those?

Again, no.

However, Bitcoin trading above its max pain and POC levels ($70K) does open up room for a move toward the STH RP in the $82-85K range. Even so, this would only be a relief rally — a short-term bounce, nothing more. A major trend reversal requires more than this.

Cheap money is still not back. Don't forget that.

Written by burakkesmeci

Ethereum’s sharp drop in leveraged positioning on Binance appears to have helped protect the market from a deeper breakdown, creating the conditions for the current recovery above $2,200.

The data shows Binance’s ETH Open Interest 30D Change fell to around -$2.13 billion in mid-February 2026, marking its deepest deleveraging phase since October 2025, when the metric reached roughly -$2.11 billion.

At the time, Ethereum managed to stabilize around the $1,800 level instead of extending its decline.

That matters because aggressive drops in open interest often reflect heavy leverage being flushed out of the market.

When that happens without a comparable collapse in price, it can signal that speculative excess has been cleared while the market builds a more stable base.

In this case, the leverage reset on Binance likely reduced liquidation pressure and helped prevent another sharp leg lower.

Rather than acting as a bearish continuation signal, the deleveraging phase appears to have served as a cleanup event that strengthened market structure.

That context is important now because Ethereum has since moved back above $2,200.

In other words, one of the largest leverage contractions in recent months may have helped absorb downside pressure near $1,800 and set the stage for the rebound that followed.

Written by Amr Taha

XRP continues to leave Binance, while derivatives traders still appear reluctant to rebuild aggressive leveraged exposure.

The data shows Binance’s cumulative XRP netflow value has fallen from around -$10.4 billion in mid-August 2025 to -$11.23 billion now, signaling a continued drain in XRP supply on the exchange.

Meanwhile, Binance XRP open interest has stayed only slightly above $200 million since mid-February 2026. That suggests speculative activity remains present, but not at the kind of elevated levels typically associated with stronger high-leverage conviction.

The takeaway is clear: exchange supply continues to thin, but derivatives traders are still not betting aggressively.

That leaves XRP in a market structure where available supply is weakening, yet speculative appetite remains muted.

Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin's Risk Thermometer: Two Metrics, One Message

The confluence of Bitcoin's Short-Term Sharpe Ratio and the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta (30) is painting one of the most compelling risk/reward setups seen in recent cycle history, but patience remains the operative word.

Starting with the Sharpe Ratio, the current reading has plunged deep into negative territory, touching the −40 threshold that has historically marked generational entry zones. Every prior instance (2015, 2019, 2020, and 2023) where the ratio pierced this level was followed by a substantial re-rating of the asset. The dashed arrows on the chart tell the story cleanly: extreme negative Sharpe readings preceded every major accumulation window of the last decade.

We are now sitting in that same red-circled territory.

The Buy/Sell Pressure Delta adds crucial texture. Historically, durable bottoms are not a single event, they are a process. That process follows a consistent sequence:

First, a flush into Maximum Sell Pressure (orange/red spikes below −0.05), where forced sellers and panic capitulators exhaust themselves. Then, a gradual normalization back toward the green "Sell Pressure" band as supply thins out. The asymmetric entry signal, the one that has consistently offered the highest risk/reward, arrives when the delta finally reclaims blue "Buy Pressure" territory, signaling that demand is genuinely re-emerging, not just stabilizing.

Right now, the chart shows the orange flush has occurred. We are transitioning. The delta is crawling back but has not yet reclaimed those blue levels. That gap, between capitulation confirmed and demand reignited, is historically where the most asymmetric capital deployment has lived.

Risk remains present. Macro headwinds, liquidity conditions, and sentiment fragility mean this process could extend. But for investors with a cycle-aware framework, the data suggests we are closer to the beginning of an opportunity than the end of one.

Written by MorenoDV_

Sharp contraction in trading activity. Total centralized exchange (CEX) trading volume declined materially, falling ~48% from the October 2025 peak to $4.3T in March 2026—its lowest level since October 2024—indicating a clear cooling in market participation after the prior cycle’s peak.

Perpetual futures dominate market structure. Trading activity is overwhelmingly concentrated in derivatives, with perpetual futures reaching $3.5T in March—over 4x larger than spot volume ($0.8T). This confirms that perp markets remain the primary driver of liquidity, price discovery, and exchange revenue expansion.

Binance maintains leadership in spot despite rising competition. Binance leads spot trading with $248B in March and ~32% market share YTD 2026 (~$1T cumulative volume). While its dominance has modestly declined (from 37% in Oct 2025), it still commands a share more than 3x larger than competitors like MEXC (9%) and Bybit (7%).

The competitive landscape intensifies but remains fragmented. Secondary exchanges (MEXC, Bybit, Gate, Crypto.com) have gained traction in spot volumes, yet none individually approach Binance’s scale, highlighting increased competition without meaningful consolidation of market leadership.

Derivatives leadership reinforces Binance’s strategic leadership. Binance also leads perpetual futures with $1.4T monthly volume and ~40% market share, far ahead of OKX (19%) and Bybit (13%). With $4.5T cumulative perp volume in 2026, derivatives remain the decisive growth engine for exchanges, cementing Binance’s position as the dominant venue across both spot and derivatives.

Written by CQ Research

Data shows a clear decline in Bitcoin liquidity on the Binance platform, coinciding with relative weakness in price movement. Bitcoin is currently trading around $72,000, while the Liquidity Index has fallen to approximately 0.278, and the 30-day Turnover has dropped to around 348,800, marking one of its lowest levels.

From late January to mid-February, the Liquidity Index gradually rose from levels near 0.45 to a peak of approximately 0.65, while the 30-day Turnover climbed to nearly 850,000. This increase in liquidity was accompanied by more stable price movements, with Bitcoin trading above $80,000, reflecting a significant influx of liquidity and elevated trading activity during that period.

However, since late February, the Liquidity Index has begun to decline gradually, falling from levels above 0.60 to below 0.30 currently. This represents a significant drop, reflecting a noticeable decrease in market depth. Concurrently, the 30-day Turnover declined sharply from approximately 850,000 to around 348,000, indicating a substantial decrease in investor activity, particularly among whales and institutional participants.

These current values suggest that the market is experiencing a period of reduced liquidity and weaker trading activity, which may keep Bitcoin’s price movements volatile in the short term. However, any rebound in the Liquidity Index above 0.40 could signal a return of market momentum and an influx of new liquidity, potentially supporting stronger price movements in the near term.

Written by Arab Chain

The Coinbase Premium Index, a key gauge of U.S. investor sentiment that reflects panic selling and relative selling pressure from American participants, is now forming a structure similar to the March ~ May period of last year, when the prior downtrend came to an end.

The stage is set for the next leg up.

Written by crypto sunmoon

The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio across exchanges reflecting the proportion of market orders filled on the buy side versus the sell side has been on a sustained uptrend for approximately four to five months.

When comparing the current price drawdown depth alongside the slope of the ratio's recovery, the structure being formed bears a strong resemblance to the setup that preceded the significant rally observed in April~May 2025.

Written by crypto sunmoon

The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio across exchanges reflecting the proportion of market orders filled on the buy side versus the sell side has been on a sustained uptrend for approximately four to five months.

When comparing the current price drawdown depth alongside the slope of the ratio's recovery, the structure being formed bears a strong resemblance to the setup that preceded the significant rally observed in April~May 2025.

Written by crypto sunmoon

Bitcoin’s Realized Price is one of the best on-chain indicators for spotting market bottoms and setting clear accumulation targets.

As of April 2026, Bitcoin is trading around $70,000 while the Realized Price sits near $54,000. The gap has narrowed — we are not that far from it anymore.

So, should you lose interest in the market right now?

Or keep your eyes wide open with intense focus and patience?

The answer is already clear: This is the time to stay highly attentive.

Yet very few people actually do it.

Written by Crypto Dan

Historically:

• 2017–2018: funding was extremely volatile and highly speculative

• 2020–2021: funding stayed strongly positive, the market was overheated, and long squeezes were common

• 2022: low/negative funding came with a major market downturn

• 2023–2024: funding was moderately positive, rising and cooling off in cycles

At the moment, funding is no longer overheated. That suggests long leverage has been flushed out, short-term speculative sentiment has cooled, and the derivatives structure looks more balanced.

This is not an outright bullish signal yet, but it also does not resemble the kind of euphoric extreme seen in 2021. Most likely, the market is in a cooling-off or rebalancing phase rather than being excessively hot or deeply fearful.

Written by Rei Researcher

Open interest built aggressively into the August–October 2025 window, with layered exposure across multiple maturities and a total profile that at times exceeded $100 million. Since then, that structure has cooled sharply. Near-dated exposure remains, but the longer-dated stack is now much thinner and visibly less confident than during ETH’s stronger phase.

This matters because institutional conviction is often expressed not only through outright futures or spot buying, but through the willingness to hold optionality further out on the curve. A lighter long-dated options structure signals reduced confidence in a strong medium-term upside path.

Spot exchange reserves have fallen to around 7.41 million ETH, while derivative exchange reserves have also declined to roughly 7.4 million ETH. This marks a broad drawdown across both spot and leveraged venues. In a healthier market structure, that kind of synchronised reserve contraction would typically support stronger price discovery by reducing immediately available inventory across the ecosystem.

Instead, ETH has remained fragile. That implies the problem is not simply excess supply. The deeper issue is the quality of demand.

Bitcoin can stay resilient in a cautious macro environment because investors still treat it as the cleaner reserve asset within crypto. Ethereum, by contrast, needs higher-quality demand to outperform. It requires conviction around real usage, sustained institutional flows, or a stronger risk-on backdrop.

Right now, the flows do not show that. They show an asset being withdrawn from exchanges, lightly supported by positioning, but not embraced with enough force to reclaim leadership.

Until ETH sees stronger spot-led demand and a more robust institutional bid, its structural underperformance versus Bitcoin is likely to persist.

Written by Novaque Research

On the Bitcoin side, netflow is positive, and the reserve ratio is also trending upward. This indicates an extraordinarily large inflow of BTC into Binance. Moreover, this inflow is significant relative to reserves, meaning there is a substantial increase in supply. Following the Iran-U.S. ceasefire news, the price rise accompanied by this increase in supply suggests that the amount of BTC ready to be sold has sharply increased. This implies that investors still lack confidence in the market and are waiting for price increases to sell their BTC holdings. This picture is concerning.

On the Ethereum side, unlike Bitcoin, netflow is slightly negative, while the reserve ratio remains weak around the 0 level. In other words, there is no clear selling pressure. At the same time, there is no strong outflow from Binance either. Supply is close to equilibrium there is neither significant selling pressure nor a strong demand signal. This suggests that Ethereum may remain stronger relative to Bitcoin.

If we compare the two charts:

▪️ While net selling supply is increasing in BTC, supply in ETH remains more neutral

▪️ Exchange liquidity is rising in BTC, indicating preparation for selling, whereas ETH liquidity is stable, pointing to a more sideways expectation

▪️ Reserve ratio movements in BTC are strong and impactful, while in ETH they are weak and less effective

As a result of this comparison, Bitcoin appears to be under noticeably higher supply pressure in the short term, which may tilt the market toward the selling side.

On the other hand, Ethereum and altcoins show no clear direction and face less selling pressure compared to BTC. In other words, Bitcoin is likely to be more affected by selling than altcoins. This indicates that the market is not moving in sync between Bitcoin and altcoins.

Written by PelinayPA

Binance BTC Cumulative Net Taker Volume has climbed to $1.02 billion, its highest level since March 17, signaling a sharp return of aggressive buying in Bitcoin.

The surge came as global markets shifted into risk-on mode after a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire eased immediate geopolitical fears tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil also reversed sharply, with Reuters and AP reporting a steep post-ceasefire drop, while intraday pricing on TradingView showed a fall from around $118 to $96.

That backdrop appears to have supported Bitcoin directly.

The latest reading suggests Binance traders were buying aggressively into improving macro sentiment, not just reacting to a crypto-specific headline.

As war-risk pricing eased and energy stress fell, BTC saw one of its strongest Binance buy-side bursts since mid-March.

Written by Amr Taha

The latest cohort data shows something important beneath the recent BTC pullback. Accumulating addresses continue to expand their balances aggressively, with total holdings now reaching fresh cycle highs above 4.5M BTC.

What stands out is that this is no longer driven only by large holders. Retail accumulating addresses have also accelerated sharply since late 2024, while long-term pattern addresses continue trending higher in a very steady way. That means conviction is broadening across multiple wallet groups rather than concentrating in a few whales.

Meanwhile, MVRV has cooled significantly from overheated levels even as price remains relatively elevated. Historically, this combination has often created a healthier market structure. Price corrects, unrealized profit resets, but coins keep moving into stronger hands. That is usually what continuation phases look like rather than cycle tops.

The black line shows BTC price volatility remains high, but the bars underneath are much more important. Accumulation barely paused during the correction. In fact, the steepest rise in accumulating balances happened exactly when sentiment became weaker.

This suggests the current market is behaving more like a redistribution phase inside a larger bull cycle, not the start of a prolonged bear market. Short-term fear is visible in price, but long-term conviction is still visible on-chain.

As long as accumulating cohorts continue expanding at this pace, the broader macro structure for Bitcoin remains constructive.

Written by CryptoZeno

While an announcement from President Trump was expected at 8:00 PM (ET), he ultimately declared a two-week ceasefire with Iran about one hour earlier.

This ceasefire also includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, temporarily easing the economic and trade tensions that had been building.

The news immediately triggered a cascade of reactions across markets.

Oil dropped by roughly 15%, the U.S. dollar fell about 0.7%, while Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures gained around 2%.

Bitcoin also saw liquidity rapidly flow into Binance derivatives markets.

Within just two hours, during and after the announcement, $1.2B and $1.5B ($2,7B) in taker buy volume appeared on derivatives markets.

This sudden improvement in visibility allows investors to reposition in the short term, while hoping the situation continues to evolve positively.

It sends a constructive signal for Bitcoin, although this dynamic remains highly sensitive to further announcements and geopolitical developments.

Written by Darkfost

Binance BTC Net Taker Volume surged above $800 million in the final three hours of April 7, signaling a sharp return of aggressive market buying as Bitcoin moved higher on the session.

The spike came as macro pressure eased abruptly.

News around a U.S.-Iran ceasefire framework and improving expectations around de-escalation in the region helped trigger a broader risk-on shift across global markets.

At the same time, oil saw a violent reversal, falling more than 18% intraday, from roughly $118 to around $96, as traders rapidly priced out part of the geopolitical risk premium.

That change in the macro backdrop appears to have fed directly into crypto sentiment.

On Binance, the move above $800 million in BTC Net Taker Volume suggests buyers were not just bidding passively, but aggressively lifting offers, a sign of stronger short-term conviction.

On the chart, that burst of buying was followed by a strong move higher in Bitcoin, with price pushing toward the $72K area.

In other words, the surge in Binance BTC buying came as war-risk pricing eased, oil collapsed, and broader appetite for risk returned — creating the kind of environment where aggressive upside participation in Bitcoin can accelerate quickly.

Written by Amr Taha