CryptoQuant Quicktake

Bearish Divergence? Binance Sees Its Largest Weekly Inflow in a Month While Stablecoins Stay on the Sidelines

On-chain data for the week starting December 29, 2025, shows that Binance recorded its largest positive net inflow in a month, totaling approximately $2.44 billion. This surge was driven almost entirely by deposits of risk assets from large holders.

Specifically, Binance saw net inflows of:

$1.33 billion in Bitcoin (BTC)

$1.07 billion in Ethereum (ETH)

Such sizable transfers of BTC and ETH from private wallets to an exchange typically indicate one of two intentions: preparation for selling or the use of these assets as collateral in derivatives markets.

Crucially, this surge in risk-asset deposits was not accompanied by new buying power. Aggregate stablecoin net flows were essentially flat, at approximately +$42 million for the same week. Most of this activity reflected internal shifts—primarily USDT moving between the ERC-20 and TRC-20 networks—rather than fresh capital entering the exchange. USDC inflows were minimal and did not materially change the picture.

Written by CryptoOnchain

After the memecoin mania that ended in November 2024, memecoin dominance within the altcoin market continued to decline, eventually reaching a historical low in December 2025.

The last time this level was reached, it preceded the launch of a massive memecoin season.

This ratio is simply based on a comparison between the market capitalization of major altcoins and that of the main memecoins. In

November 2024, this ratio reached 0.11, meaning that memecoins accounted for 11% of the total altcoin market capitalization.

By December 2025, this ratio had fallen to 0.032.

Over the past few days, the situation has improved, with major memecoins posting strong gains.

This could mark the beginning of a memecoin comeback, although it is still very early to say for sure.

Nevertheless, for more speculative investors, this may represent an interesting signal, provided caution is exercised and risk is properly managed.

Written by Darkfost

Reports of a U.S. military intervention in Venezuela have brought geopolitical risk back into focus. While such headlines often trigger concern across global markets, price moves alone do not fully capture how Bitcoin is reacting. In these situations, on-chain data offers a clearer signal of real market behavior.

The most useful metric here is Exchange Netflow, which tracks whether Bitcoin is moving into or out of exchanges. Rising inflows typically indicate preparation to sell, while continued outflows suggest holding behavior. When geopolitical risk is genuinely perceived as dangerous, exchange inflows tend to spike as investors reduce exposure.

Looking at past conflicts—including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and recent Middle East escalations—Bitcoin prices often showed short-term volatility. However, Exchange Netflow rarely worsened in a sustained way. Since 2023, the market has become more resilient to localized military conflicts, with initial reactions fading quickly.

So far, the Venezuela situation fits this pattern. Despite some price sensitivity, there is no sign of large-scale Bitcoin inflows to exchanges. Panic selling is absent, suggesting the market is cautious but not fearful.

Historically, Bitcoin has reacted more strongly to structural economic confrontations, such as U.S.–China tensions, regulatory actions, or restrictions on capital movement. These events directly affect the global financial system and tend to leave clearer traces in on-chain data.

Whether Venezuela becomes a broader economic issue remains uncertain. For now, Exchange Netflow suggests the market is watching, not fleeing.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

The Monthly Inflow Mean to Binance reached 21.7 BTC in December 2025. It’s up from 0.86 two years ago in Early January 2024. That’s a 34x increase in the average size of each deposit. This metric reflects the average BTC per inflow transaction, signaling that larger holders are now more active on Binance.

Fun fact: this trend began accelerating in early 2024, right around the time the spot BTC ETF was approved. While it could be coincidence, the timing suggests larger entities may have started use Binance as exchange alongside institutional adoption.

Binance is gradually positioning itself as a key venue for whale flows.

Written by maartunn

A comparative analysis of the Bitcoin Exchange Inflow Mean and Exchange Outflow Mean on Binance since October reveals a significant and potentially bearish divergence that warrants close attention.

On one hand, the Exchange Inflow Mean has experienced a dramatic surge. This metric, reflecting the average size of each transaction flowing into the exchange, has jumped from a range of approximately 8-10 BTC to a much higher level of 22-26 BTC. This sharp increase strongly suggests that larger players, or “whales,” are transferring substantial amounts of Bitcoin onto the exchange. Typically, this action is taken to increase liquidity in preparation for selling, thus heightening supply pressure on the market.

Conversely, the Exchange Outflow Mean tells a completely different story. After falling from a level of 11 in October down to a low of 2, the metric is now fluctuating within a suppressed range of 5.5 to 8.3. This signifies a steep decline in the average size of withdrawal transactions. In other words, large-scale accumulation and the movement of Bitcoin into cold storage by major holders have drastically decreased.

Conclusion:

This divergence is a clear warning signal. While the average size of deposits (potential for selling) has surged, the average size of withdrawals (an indicator of accumulation) remains at low levels. This dynamic points to rising selling pressure and a diminishing appetite for long-term holding among major players, which could act as a significant headwind for price appreciation in the short to medium term. Traders should remain vigilant of this potential increase in market supply.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Buying power ratios turned negative across seven of ten major exchanges as of January 3, indicating capital deployment insufficient to match BTC outflows. Upbit leads with 0.421 ratio as sole exchange demonstrating meaningful accumulation, while Binance recorded -0.064 representing modest distribution. Traders maintain cautious stance despite price recovery to $90K.

Binance improved from December average of -0.093 to current -0.064, though remains negative. Late December witnessed recovery, with Binance advancing from -0.277 to +0.059 before retreating. Bitget posted strongest improvement gaining 0.760 points, while Bybit deteriorated from +0.141 to -1.324.

Market reveals geographic bifurcation with Asian venues showing strength. Upbit maintains only sustained positive buying power at 0.421, while Coinbase Advanced registered -0.088 and Kraken near-neutral at -0.012. Regional capital patterns diverged during December.

December monthly averages placed three exchanges positive: Upbit (+0.062), Kraken (+0.004), and OKX (+0.001). Remaining seven platforms averaged negative ratios, with Bybit worst at -0.662. Current readings show modest improvement but insufficient deployment for conviction accumulation.

Buying power measures stablecoin capital arrival against BTC withdrawal velocity. Negative ratios indicate capital leaving faster than deployment arriving. Data suggests professionals reducing exposure rather than building positions despite BTC stabilizing above $87K.

Written by Crazzyblockk

Data from Binance indicates that the CVD Confirmation Score recently registered at around 0.48 on the 30-day timeframe. This value is positive but not particularly strong, suggesting a partial alignment between price action and volume flows. In simpler terms, there is support from buying activity, but this support is neither decisive nor fully dominant.

When the CVD value is high and positive, it means that market buy orders outweigh sell orders, often indicating accumulation by large traders or institutions. Moderate values, as is currently the case, reflect a state of relative equilibrium between supply and demand, where buyers are supporting the price, but selling pressure is preventing the formation of strong upward momentum.

What is noteworthy in this context is that the CVD has not clearly entered negative territory, despite price declines during certain periods. This behavior could be interpreted as a weakening of genuine selling pressure, or that part of the decline is due to a natural price correction rather than aggressive distribution. Typically, declines supported by a strongly negative CVD tend to be more severe and prolonged.

The current state of the CVD can be considered a neutral-to-positive signal. The market is not showing a strong buying surge that would confirm the start of a new upward trend; however, at the same time, it does not reflect a state of panic or a sharp sell-off. A continued rise in the CVD above these levels, especially with improved correlation with price, could provide support for any future upward attempts. Conversely, a break in the CVD into negative territory would serve as an early warning sign of potential further weakness in the market structure.

Written by Arab Chain

Recent on-chain data from Binance indicates a significant shift in market sentiment for XRP. The Taker Buy Sell Ratio, and specifically its 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-7), has surged to 0.991, marking its highest level since late November.

This indicator measures the ratio of aggressive market buy volume to aggressive market sell volume. A rise in this ratio, bringing it close to 1.0, signals that aggressive selling pressure is diminishing while the strength of buyers—those willing to fill orders at the market price—is increasing.

Key Takeaways:

Sentiment Reversal: This surge follows a bearish period for the metric in mid-December, suggesting a positive turnaround in trader sentiment.

Bullish Momentum Confirmation: The rise in the ratio coincides with XRP’s recent price increase, providing evidence of strong buyer support for the current uptrend. This suggests that demand is effectively absorbing the available supply.

The Critical 1.0 Level: A sustained move above the 1.0 threshold would serve as an even stronger bullish signal, indicating that buying pressure is definitively overpowering selling pressure. This could set the stage for more sustainable upward price movements in the short term.

In summary, this metric suggests that buying momentum is building for XRP and could act as a key support factor for its price in the near future. Traders should monitor this indicator closely for confirmation of continued trend strength.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Exchange BTC reserves contracted 6,650 coins weekly representing $612 million supply reduction, with seven of ten major platforms experiencing outflows. Net decline of 0.293% indicates modest supply tightening supporting long-term bullish structure without implying immediate price impact. Supply leaving centralized venues reduces available selling inventory over extended timeframes.

Coinbase emerged as sole growing major platform capturing 1,648 BTC while Binance shed 4,684 BTC in largest absolute decline. Platform divergence reveals institutional preference patterns, with Coinbase consolidating 807,121 BTC position commanding 35.5% market share. Binance maintained 28.9% share despite outflows, remaining strong second with 656,886 BTC reserves.

Smaller exchanges hemorrhaged reserves disproportionately, with Gate.io contracting 3.66% weekly and KuCoin declining 3.59%. Pattern demonstrates market consolidation toward largest venues as professionals concentrate holdings. Kraken posted second-largest absolute decline at 3,872 BTC.

Total exchange reserves stand at 2.27 million BTC worth $209 billion, with top three platforms controlling 82.7% concentration. Weekly velocity of 0.62% suggests orderly repositioning rather than panic. Coinbase-Binance duopoly commands 64.4% combined reserves, creating structural dominance. Data reveals professional consolidation toward top-tier platforms concurrent with modest supply tightening.

Written by Crazzyblockk

It is now important to closely monitor the evolution of the stablecoin side in the market.

Tracking stablecoin flows makes it possible to assess investor behavior and, therefore, demand in relation to the current conditions of the crypto market.

Demand needs to improve.

We need to see more stablecoins being deployed into the market to support a genuine bullish recovery.

For now, growth remains stagnant, which can be observed through the market capitalizations of the main protocols such as Tether and Circle.

At this stage, the market is therefore moving based on shifts in the liquidity that is already present in the system.

This chart precisely allows us to observe the flows heading toward exchanges.

When stablecoin inflows into exchanges increase, it suggests that investor interest is improving and that they are likely preparing to re-enter the market.

This is what we are starting to see today.

The development remains modest, but it is enough to break the prevailing trend.

Looking at the chart, it may not seem significant at first glance, yet the weekly average has just risen from $51B to $81B in inflows within a single week.

The 90-day average continues to decline and has now reached $100B.

Reclaiming levels above this threshold would not be insignificant.

If stablecoins continue to flow into exchanges and are effectively deployed into the market, it would clearly be a positive signal.

However, this will need to be accompanied by additional developments to sustain the ongoing shift.

Written by Darkfost

While BTC continues to trade sideways between $85,000 and $92,000, STHs remain under pressure.

With an estimated cost basis around $103,000, after adjusting for the impact of BTC moved by Coinbase, and a price near $88,000, the average unrealized losses for STHs stand at roughly 15%.

This calculation is simply based on the percentage deviation from the STH cost basis. Using this approach makes it possible to identify periods when the most reactive and sensitive investors in the market are under stress.

Historically, when STHs have experienced losses of this magnitude, meaning when unrealized losses exceeded the 15% threshold , they have already suffered significant drawdowns.

These phases have often coincided with the formation of correction lows.

This could once again be the case. However, if BTC were to enter a deep and prolonged bear market, this type of signal would lose its effectiveness, so caution remains essential.

Written by Darkfost

The Bitcoin Sentiment Index (BSI), which combines NUPL, STH-SOPR, and Volume, offers a reading of market mood. NUPL indicates whether investors are in profit or loss, reflecting structural health. STH-SOPR captures the behavior of short-term holders, revealing whether they sell at a gain or a loss. Volume functions as a strength thermometer, confirming whether movements have relevant participation or are fragile.

Thus, the on-chain indicator Bitcoin Sentiment Index (NUPL, STH-SOPR & Volume), which at the time of this publication recorded BSI: 0.25 and Volume: 37K, translates both the structural scenario and short-term signals.

INTERPRETING THE BSI

◾ BSI < 0

•Volume < 50K → Risk of further declines (strong selling pressure).

•Volume 50K–150K → Moderate decline (reduction in selling pressure).

•Volume ≥ 150K → Confirmed bottom (smart money acting effectively).

◾ BSI 0–0.20

•Volume < 50K → Faint hope (strong balance between bulls and bears, sideways movement).

•Volume 50K–150K → Initial recovery (modest market reaction).

•Volume ≥ 150K → Validated rally (firm rise, growing participation).

◾ BSI 0.20–0.30

•Volume < 50K → Mixed sentiment (fear is present).

•Volume 50K–150K → Optimism (market shows signs of confidence).

•Volume ≥ 150K → Rally in consolidation (consistent rise, with broad support).

◾ BSI 0.30–0.40

•Volume < 50K → Fragile transition (market indecisive, lacking strength).

•Volume 50K–150K → Transition zone (market remains indecisive but stronger).

•Volume ≥ 150K → Strengthened transition (rally gains consistency but still in a critical phase).

◾ BSI ≥ 0.40

•Volume < 50K → Fragile euphoria (exaggerated optimism, lacking healthy growth).

•Volume 50K–150K → Probable top (market near its limit).

•Volume ≥ 150K → Confirmed top (market at its peak, high risk of decline).

CONCLUSION

The BSI, by combining NUPL, STH-SOPR, and Volume, reflects market sentiment and identifies phases of decline, recovery, transition, and euphoria.

Written by GugaOnChain

Large institutional investors are quietly building ETH exposure ahead of any meaningful price movement. In the U.S., BitMine, led by Tom Lee, staked 82,560 ETH (approximately $260 million) in a single day, bringing total staking to roughly $1.7 billion within just one week. This behavior is more consistent with long-term network participation than with short-term speculative positioning.

At the same time, Ethereum’s transaction count has reached an all-time high. The increase appears to be driven by sustained real usage, including Layer-2 activity, rather than purely speculative trading. Network activity has advanced faster than price, suggesting that usage has already entered a more mature phase while valuation has yet to fully respond.

On the protocol side, Ethereum continues to prioritize long-term ecosystem growth over immediate revenue maximization. In 2025, the network gave up more than $100 million in guaranteed fee revenue. Since the Dencun upgrade, Layer-2 networks have paid only around $10 million to the mainnet while retaining approximately $119 million in revenue themselves, reinforcing scalability and developer incentives across the ecosystem.

That said, valuation signals remain restrained. ETH’s MVRV ratio is not only well below levels observed during past bull markets, but also remains modest when compared with prior historical undervaluation phases. As the chart suggests, MVRV is hovering near its long-term neutral zone rather than approaching extreme lows or overheated conditions. This indicates that significant downside pressure appears limited, while the market has not yet entered a phase of broad profit expansion.

At present, the base scenario is one of structural consolidation supported by improving fundamentals, rather than a confirmed bullish trend.

However, if MVRV rises sharply or leverage-driven speculation re-emerges, this assessment would need to be reassessed.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Large institutional investors are quietly building ETH exposure ahead of price movement. In the U.S., BitMine, led by Tom Lee, staked 82,560 ETH (about $260 million) in a single day, bringing total staking to roughly $1.7 billion in just one week. This activity points to long-term network participation rather than short-term speculation.

Ethereum’s transaction count has also reached an all-time high. The increase appears driven by sustained real usage, including Layer-2 activity, rather than purely speculative trading. Network activity has advanced faster than price, suggesting usage has entered a more mature phase while valuation has yet to adjust.

On the protocol side, Ethereum continues to prioritize long-term ecosystem growth over immediate revenue. In 2025, it gave up more than $100 million in guaranteed fees. Since the Dencun upgrade, Layer-2 networks have paid only around $10 million to the mainnet while retaining approximately $119 million in revenue, reinforcing scalability and developer incentives.

That said, valuation signals remain restrained. ETH’s MVRV ratio is still well below levels seen during past bull markets. While downside pressure appears limited, the indicator does not yet support a strong bullish regime.

At present, the base scenario is structural consolidation supported by improving fundamentals, rather than a confirmed uptrend.

If MVRV rises sharply or leverage-driven speculation returns, this view would need to be reassessed.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Tracking whale behavior can sometimes provide valuable insights. Given the size of the capital involved, decisions made by this category of investors are never insignificant.

Their scale forces them to optimize their entry points as much as possible, making their movements particularly interesting to analyze.

Over the past few days, whale activity on Binance around the LINK token from the Chainlink protocol has increased significantly.

We can observe that outflows from the 10 largest transactions on Binance have risen sharply.

While the monthly average stood at around 1,500 LINK leaving the platform per day, several spikes were recorded, reaching up to 4,500 LINK in daily outflows. This dynamic began to take shape while the token was trading in the $12 to $13 price range, following a severe correction of approximately 50%.

As a consequence, the Top 10 outflows average started to rise as well.

Historically, this type of behavior is frequently observed after strong corrective phases.

Once price has been heavily compressed, whale activity tends to intensify, allowing them to accumulate positions at a more attractive cost basis.

If this accumulation continues, the LINK token could definitively establish its bottom and resume its upward trajectory.

Written by Darkfost

📰 Daily Market Update

Bitcoin just crossed the $90K mark, for the first time in January — after testing it three times in December.

📊 BTC: Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume / OI [USD] 24H

The chart shows:

* Open Interest jumped from $8.25B to $8.8B in just one day.

* This is the highest Open Interest level since the end of December.

* BTC price broke above $90K, as aresult of open new positions.

* CVD also rose, confirming that new positions are mostly long buys.

📊 [BTC] Binance Retail Traders – Daily Buy/Sell Amount

This chart tracks daily buy and sell volumes from retail traders on Binance.

* A strong spike in daily positive buying volume.

* Over 4,500 BTC bought by retail in a single day.

* Same pattern happened on Dec 29, right after BTC hit $90K.

📊 BTC Liquidation Heatmap

The liquidation heatmap highlights a major liquidation cluster around the $90,000 area.

🔸 As price reached this zone, a large group of late short sellers got liquidated.

🔸 When liquidation levels are hit, over-leveraged traders are forced to buy back their positions at market price.

Important note ⚠️

Forced liquidation zones for late shorts often turn into short-term resistance levels, especially when funding rates stay elevated due to aggressive long positioning.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Monitoring retail trading behavior, open interest, and derivatives positioning gives us a much clearer picture of what’s really driving short-term price movements.

Written by Amr Taha

Data from the derivatives markets demonstrates that December 2025 stands out as the month with the lowest trading volumes of the year, reflecting a disengagement of leveraged traders.

This chart highlights the trading volumes of the top 10 coins aggregated across several major exchanges.

We can observe a broad-based decline in liquidity, confirming that the slowdown is not isolated to a single platform but affects the entire ecosystem.

This is Binance, which still dominates with approximately $1.19 trillion in monthly trading volume.

However, this figure remains particularly low. It is nearly half of the volume recorded in August 2025 and represents the weakest month of the year in terms of trading activity.

A similar trend is observed across other major exchanges. OKX recorded only $581 billion in trading volume, while Bybit was limited to $421 billion. These levels further confirm a significant liquidity contraction in the derivatives markets, mechanically reducing risk appetite and the use of leverage.

This decline in volumes reflects investor behavior in an unfavorable market environment. The increase in liquidations, combined with a period of heightened market uncertainty and unclear directionality, has reinforced risk aversion. In such conditions, market participants clearly prioritize capital preservation over performance.

Historically, this type of contraction in derivatives activity often corresponds to transitional phases, during which the market flushes out excess leverage before rebuilding a healthier trend.

Written by Darkfost

The Sharpe ratio on Bitcoin has just turned negative and is approaching a historical low-risk zone.

The Sharpe ratio is a tool used to assess risk based on an asset’s volatility and returns. By comparing these two variables, it helps identify periods when exposure is more or less risky. Normally, a low Sharpe ratio is associated with high-risk periods.

However, for Bitcoin, which is inherently volatile, this simply means that returns have been poor (in other words, investors have suffered losses) while volatility remains elevated.

On Bitcoin, the best opportunities tend to emerge precisely when losses have already been realized and volatility has amplified the correction, leading to significant drawdowns and negative returns.

This is why a negative Sharpe ratio, like the one we are seeing today (-0.5), can actually represent a good opportunity on Bitcoin. Historically, whenever this ratio has reached the extreme low-risk zone highlighted on the chart, the best buying opportunities have formed.

Written by Darkfost

Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals a significant shift in Ethereum’s (ETH) net flow to Binance, with a substantial $960 million inflow recorded in December 2025 (as per the latest data point on the chart). This marks a remarkable turnaround, as Ethereum had been experiencing generally negative and decreasing net flows to the exchange since July of the same year.

This impressive figure not only indicates an abrupt change in investor behavior but also represents the highest monthly asset inflow for Ethereum to Binance since July 2025. Prior periods of negative net flows typically suggested that more ETH was being withdrawn from the exchange than deposited, often interpreted as long-term holding intentions off-exchange or potential selling pressure.

The implications of this considerable inflow are multi-faceted:

Revived Buyer Interest: This high volume of inflow could signal a strong resurgence in demand and renewed investor interest in accumulating Ethereum.

Preparation for Volatility: Traders might be moving their assets to the exchange to capitalize on upcoming trading opportunities or anticipated price fluctuations.

New Capital Injection: The trend could also indicate fresh capital entering the Ethereum ecosystem, subsequently being transferred to exchanges for active trading.

This sudden reversal from outflows to massive inflows serves as a crucial signal for the Ethereum market, potentially heralding a new phase of accumulation or heightened trading activity that investors and traders should monitor closely.

Written by CryptoOnchain

However, since the fall of 2025, Binance spot has been biased towards selling. After reaching 80,000, it became biased towards buying and was absorbed. However, it has again become biased towards selling. Although there are some places where funds are flowing in, it has reversed as it has since the fall of 2025. This is the true nature of the range.

Written by Crypto_Lion