CryptoQuant Quicktake

Despite a persistently uncertain macro environment, several signals point to a gradual improvement in Ethereum, particularly on the derivatives side.

It has been nearly three years since such a setup was last observed in the ETH Taker Buy Sell Ratio on Binance.

The indicator has now moved back into positive territory, with a monthly average around 1.016, and has been holding above 1 for several consecutive days. This reflects a progressive return of buyer dominance on perpetual markets, suggesting the early stages of a more constructive trend.

This signal is particularly relevant given that Binance accounts for over 37% of total ETH open interest, making it a key venue for assessing derivatives positioning.

As a reminder, the Taker Buy Sell Ratio measures the relationship between market buy and sell volumes on perpetual contracts.

When the ratio is above 1, it indicates that buy orders are dominant, reflecting a bullish bias.

Conversely, a ratio below 1 signals stronger selling pressure and a more bearish sentiment.

This therefore marks a constructive development for Ethereum, not seen since 2023.

Moreover, this shift is unfolding gradually, without excessive spikes, which is typically healthier in derivatives markets that are often prone to rapid imbalances and liquidation cascades.

Written by Darkfost

March 2026 marked a clear shift toward Ethereum in the crypto market. While Bitcoin gained just +1.83%, Ethereum rose +7.12%, signaling a notable capital rotation. This divergence reflects structural change rather than simple price action. Bitcoin’s market cap slightly declined (-0.43%), whereas Ethereum’s grew (+2.97%), suggesting capital reallocation toward higher return opportunities.

Ethereum also showed higher realized volatility (62.8% vs. Bitcoin’s 49.8%), reinforcing its role as a higher-beta asset. Despite a strong correlation (~0.94), ETH reacts more aggressively to shifts in liquidity and risk appetite, effectively acting as a leveraged market beta.

More importantly, supply dynamics favor ETH. Continued exchange outflows indicate reduced sell pressure and rising long-term holding. On-chain data further supports this. The Coinbase Premium Gap remains negative but is improving, signaling early-stage recovery in U.S. demand. Meanwhile, Active Addresses continue trending higher, pointing to growing network usage.

This combination suggests a typical early-cycle structure: institutional demand has not fully returned, but real usage is already expanding. Ethereum’s ecosystem — including stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenized assets — strengthens its role as a financial infrastructure layer, unlike Bitcoin’s store-of-value focus.

Although declining volume implies some liquidity-driven price action, ETH currently benefits from simultaneous capital inflow, supply tightening, and ecosystem growth. This positions Ethereum as a structurally stronger asset in the current phase, with potential to outperform further as liquidity conditions improve.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Ethereum’s available sell-side supply continues to thin across major exchanges, a sign that less ETH is sitting on trading venues and ready to be sold.

That matters because reserve declines across multiple exchanges usually point to a broader supply contraction, not just an isolated move on one platform.

In this case, the trend has appeared across Coinbase, Binance, Gemini, and OKX.

On Coinbase, ETH reserves fell from 5.6 million in early August 2025 to 3.2 million ETH by April 9, 2026. On Binance, reserves dropped from 4.75 million ETH on August 11, 2025 to 3.3 million ETH on April 9, 2026.

Other exchanges also saw sharp declines.

Gemini recorded an almost 74,000 ETH drop in a single day on February 19, while OKX saw reserves fall from around 990,000 ETH on March 20 to just 167,000 ETH by April 9.

Taken together, the data shows Ethereum reserves continuing to contract across major venues, reducing the amount of ETH immediately available for sale on exchanges.

Written by Amr Taha

U.S.-Iran risk is not fully gone. A fragile ceasefire is under strain, U.S. forces are still positioned around Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz issue remains unresolved. In that kind of environment, capital usually moves defensively first, often toward cash-like instruments such as stablecoins.

That is why these three metrics matter. CryptoQuant defines Exchange Reserve as the total amount of coins held on exchange addresses, and a falling reserve generally points to lower available sell-side supply. Exchange Stablecoins Ratio tracks BTC reserves relative to stablecoin reserves on exchanges, while SSR compares Bitcoin’s market cap to total stablecoin market cap. Lower SSR means relatively stronger stablecoin buying power.

The chart structure is constructive. Bitcoin Exchange Reserve has fallen toward multi-year lows, Exchange Stablecoins Ratio has compressed toward the bottom of its range, and SSR has reset sharply from prior highs. In plain English, fewer BTC appear to be sitting on exchanges while stablecoin liquidity looks relatively stronger. That does not guarantee upside, but it does suggest the market still has dry powder instead of showing pure liquidation stress.

This is the geopolitical read-through: if fear headlines keep hitting but BTC does not fully break down while stablecoin-linked metrics stay supportive, then the market may be converting fear into sidelined buying power rather than outright exit. In that case, any meaningful de-escalation could trigger a fast relief move.

Risk management still matters. These metrics are not standalone trade signals. If geopolitical stress worsens and Exchange Reserve starts rising while SSR also turns higher, that would imply fresh BTC supply is returning to exchanges and stablecoin buying power is fading. Until that happens, the bigger message is simple: the news flow is producing fear, but on-chain liquidity does not look exhausted.

Written by The Alchemist 9

Both legs ended at exchanges. ⚠️

Last time STH behavior was this erratic on both sides of a price move: March 2024 distribution top.

- Apr 3-5: BTC 66.5K-67.5K, P&L slightly negative - sending at a loss, low volume, no panic

- Apr 6-7: price ripped to 71.5K, STH P&L spiked to +2.5K BTC - profit-intent inflows staged at exchanges on both pumps

- Apr 7-8: price retraced to 68K, P&L crashed to -2.7K BTC - underwater holders sending to exchanges, capitulation pressure elevated

- Apr 8-9: recovery to 72K+, P&L flipped positive again - same playbook, sell-side supply reloaded into the rip

Every pump: exchange inflows in profit. Every dip: exchange inflows at a loss.

Neither direction is being absorbed. Overhead supply is not clearing.

Bearish bias. Until loss-sending dries up on dips and profit inflows stop on pumps, this is a churn market - not a base.

Written by IT Tech

Ethereum data indicates that approximately 82 million ETH were withdrawn from exchanges during the first quarter of 2026. This relatively high amount suggests increased demand for ETH withdrawals outside of exchanges. Binance recorded withdrawals of approximately 33 million ETH, OKX recorded approximately 11 million ETH, and Coinbase recorded approximately 6 million ETH, while the remaining amount was distributed among other exchanges.

This elevated level of withdrawals reflects a notable shift in investor behavior, as large amounts of Ethereum moving off exchanges are typically associated with accumulation and long-term holding strategies. When investors withdraw assets from exchanges, it often indicates reduced intent to sell in the short term, which can contribute to tightening available supply in the market. This trend is particularly significant when withdrawals occur across multiple major exchanges simultaneously, suggesting broader market participation rather than isolated activity.

Binance leading withdrawals with 33 million ETH highlights its continued dominance in global trading activity and liquidity. Large outflows from Binance often carry strong market implications, as the platform hosts a significant share of retail and institutional trading volume. Similarly, withdrawals from OKX and Coinbase further reinforce the narrative of sustained demand, especially considering Coinbase is commonly associated with institutional investors. The presence of notable outflows from Coinbase may indicate growing institutional accumulation during this period.

Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin consolidates at $72,411.9 (+1% 24h | +8.22% 7d), masking a dangerous divergence in the market's microstructure. The Binance USDT Refresh Rate Z-Score (SMA-30) indicator, which remains in negative territory (-1.56), confirms the apathy in the organic injection of spot dollars. This pause in the buying flow has attracted aggressive local and global bearish positions: the Bitcoin: Funding Rates - Binance anchored at -0.002009, in total synchrony with the Bitcoin: Funding Rates - All Exchanges, which also retreated into the same negative territory (-0.001855).

INSTITUTIONAL INTERPRETATION

Accompanied by a growing Bitcoin: Estimated Leverage Ratio - All Exchanges of 0.22, the scenario shows that tactical traders are gradually increasing leverage in short positions (Shorts), assuming that the market lacks the capital momentum to break through resistances.

RISK ASYMMETRY

The tactical error of this reading is ignoring macro-liquidity. The Bitcoin: Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) currently stands at 10.51 — far from the liquidity depletion levels typical of cycle tops (above 16). Meanwhile, the Bitcoin: Exchange Stablecoins Ratio USD - All Exchanges revealed an increase in reserves, over the same period, of 47.35% (1.59). Mathematically, there is an ocean of stablecoins (dry powder) just watching the market from the sidelines. The risk asymmetry turns against the short sellers: with vast idle liquidity and excess leverage in Shorts, the probability of a cascading Short Squeeze assumes the central weight.

CONCLUSION

Traders betting on the downside below $70,000 are focused on short-term apathy, but ignore or are unaware of the mountains of stablecoins parked on the sidelines. The global market is not out of fuel; it merely awaits the panic of short sellers to ignite a violent wave of liquidations.

Written by GugaOnChain

Ethereum just saw a sharp cleanup of weak long positions on Binance, with late buyers taking the hit.

That matters because this was not broad strength returning to the market. It was a one-sided flush, showing that aggressive buyers who entered too late were forced out around the same price zone.

On the ETH: Binance Liquidation Delta chart, two major liquidation events stand out clearly.

The first reached about $206 million near $2,020, followed by a larger $258 million liquidation event near $2,027.

The liquidation pressure was concentrated almost entirely on the long side, meaning the traders who got wiped were mostly late buyers. When this kind of one-sided move appears, it usually reflects fragile short-term positioning and an overcrowded long setup that the market failed to sustain.

Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin consolidates at $72,141.43 (+1.19% 24h | +7.83% 7d), masking a dangerous divergence in the market's microstructure. The Binance USDT Refresh Rate Z-Score (SMA-30) indicator, which remains in negative territory (-1.56), confirms the apathy in the organic injection of spot dollars. This pause in the buying flow has attracted aggressive local and global bearish positions: the Bitcoin: Funding Rates - Binance anchored at -0.002009, in total synchrony with the Bitcoin: Funding Rates - All Exchanges, which also retreated into the same negative territory (-0.001855).

INSTITUTIONAL INTERPRETATION

Accompanied by a growing Bitcoin: Estimated Leverage Ratio - All Exchanges of 0.22, the scenario shows that tactical traders are gradually increasing leverage in short positions (Shorts), assuming that the market lacks the capital momentum to break through resistances.

RISK ASYMMETRY

The tactical error of this reading is ignoring macro-liquidity. The Bitcoin: Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) currently stands at 10.51 — far from the liquidity depletion levels typical of cycle tops (above 16). Meanwhile, the Bitcoin: Exchange Stablecoins Ratio USD - All Exchanges revealed an increase in reserves, over the same period, of 47.35% (1.59). Mathematically, there is an ocean of stablecoins (dry powder) just watching the market from the sidelines. The risk asymmetry turns against the short sellers: with vast idle liquidity and excess leverage in Shorts, the probability of a cascading Short Squeeze assumes the central weight.

CONCLUSION

Traders betting on the downside at $71k are focused on short-term apathy, but ignore the mountains of stablecoins parked on the sidelines. The global market is not out of fuel; it merely awaits the panic of short sellers to ignite a violent wave of liquidations.

Written by GugaOnChain

Bitcoin is trading above $71,000, but Binance data suggests the latest move higher is still facing only limited profit-taking rather than broad panic selling.

The clearest signal comes from the 7-day standard deviation in Binance short-term holder realized profit/loss pressure, which fell to 260 on April 9.

That is close to the 251 seen on March 26 and below the 277 recorded on February 28. In simple terms, short-term holder behavior has become calmer even as BTC remains elevated above $71K.

This time, the pressure reading is cooling instead of expanding.

So far, that points more to a controlled market structure than to a broad rush to exit.

A second Binance chart supports the same idea.

On April 8, the 1 day to 1 week holder group sent about 95 BTC to Binance.

That likely reflects profit-taking from smaller or very short-term investors, but it does not yet look like large-scale distribution from older holder cohorts.

Taken together, the data suggests that some fast-money participants are realizing gains into strength, but the broader market is not showing signs of widespread panic.

As long as short-term holder pressure stays near these relatively low levels, Bitcoin’s move above $71,000 appears to be meeting selective selling, not heavy market-wide liquidation.

Written by Amr Taha

Throughout the chart, the ratio frequently falls below 1. This indicates that on the market order side, sellers are acting more aggressively than buyers. However, despite this persisting for a long time, Ethereum’s price has not entered a full collapse trend. This suggests that passive buyers (limit bids) are, interestingly, holding the market up.

In mid 2025, as the price rose from around $2K to $4K, the ratio failed to sustain a consistent upward move. The rally did not occur with strong market buy dominance, but rather appears to have been driven by liquidity gaps and passive demand. This is why the uptrend was not sustainable.

The recent mismatch between price and ratio serves as evidence that buying pressure is being absorbed by selling. This type of structure is typically seen in environments where whales are exiting their positions.

According to the chart, the price does not have the structure to rise without first moving down and collecting liquidity. It is very weak, low in volume, and every small upward move is met with selling pressure. For this reason, it is difficult to expect ETH to rise without forming a new bottom first.

Written by PelinayPA

XRP accumulation and distribution data on Binance (SUM 30D) indicate a significant decline in market activity recently, with both accumulation and distribution falling to their lowest levels since 2021. This clearly points to a noticeable weakening in investor activity and reduced market liquidity.

The data shows that 30-day accumulation recently stabilized at approximately 2.06 billion XRP, while 30-day distribution reached around 2.09 billion XRP, resulting in a net negative accumulation of approximately -36 million XRP. This slight advantage of distribution over accumulation reflects continued selling pressure, with investors tending to reduce their positions rather than increase their exposure to the asset.

The fact that both accumulation and distribution have reached their lowest levels since 2021 is a significant indicator of declining overall market activity, which is typically associated with periods of calm or anticipation before larger market movements. Weak accumulation suggests a decrease in buying activity, while declining distribution also indicates reduced selling activity, reflecting an overall drop in investor participation.

The move in net accumulation into negative territory further reinforces this view, indicating a slight but continued dominance of selling pressure despite the overall decline in activity. Such periods often signal a transitional phase in the market, where activity slows before a new trend begins.

Written by Arab Chain

USDC (ERC20) still looks active. Since Apr 9, 2025, active addresses rose from roughly 78.8K to 210.3K, up about 167%. Transfer event count also climbed from 283.6K to 633.0K, up about 123%. Network usage clearly expanded.

But the supply side tells a different story. Circulating supply was roughly 40.7B about a year ago and now stands near 35.3B, down about 13.2%. It is also roughly 32.2% below the cycle peak near 52.0B reached in mid-November.

The exchange metrics matter even more. Exchange Supply Ratio now sits near 0.0948, down about 12.6% over the last 30 days and roughly 9.1% below its 30D SMA. That points to less USDC sitting on spot exchanges on the right edge, not more.

Exchange Netflow confirms the same shift on the right edge. Over the last 30 days, netflow was negative by roughly 824M, with more negative days than positive ones. That is net exchange outflow, not fresh exchange buildup.

Tokens Transferred (Total) helps refine the picture. Total transferred volume is still much higher than it was a year ago, up about 60.7% since Apr 9, 2025. But right now it is not accelerating. Over the last 30 days, transferred volume is down about 2.6% and sits roughly 20.6% below its 30D SMA.

That matters. Activity is still there. But large-scale transfer volume is not expanding on the right edge, and exchange-side supply is still shrinking.

This is not dormant stablecoin behavior. But it is not exchange accumulation either 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

Today, nearly 1 BTC out of 2 is held at a loss.

More precisely, the share of Bitcoin supply still in profit is estimated at around ~59%, a level close to what was observed during the last bear market.

This may seem counterintuitive to some, but the market actually needs investors in profit to sustain a positive momentum. Historically, the average sits closer to ~75% of supply in profit.

We are therefore well below typical levels today.

Looking at the data, the 50% level appears to be a key threshold. We are not there yet, but historically bear markets have tended to bottom around that area.

This chart helps assess when losses or profits become significant across the market.

The strategy is relatively straightforward :

— Accumulate when losses reach extreme levels, positioning yourself ahead of a majority of investors.

— Reduce exposure when profits approach 100%.

The current environment appears more suited for accumulation than for selling at this stage.

Written by Darkfost

Long-Term Holder SOPR (30D SMA) is compressing toward the neutral level (~1), reflecting a contraction in realized profits among long-term holders.

This metric captures whether coins held for more than 155 days are being spent at a profit or loss, representing the realized behavior of long-term holders.

Historically, sustained resets of LTH-SOPR toward or below 1 have aligned with phases of profit-taking exhaustion and structural reset in the market.

During prior cycle bottoms, LTH-SOPR moved decisively below 1, signaling that long-term holders were realizing losses and that capitulation had emerged.

In contrast, LTH-SOPR is stabilizing near 1, without entering the deeply negative regime seen during prior bottoms.

This suggests that while profit-taking pressure has been largely absorbed, the market has not yet entered the structural stress typically associated with major accumulation phases.

Source: CryptoQuant

Written by Zizcrypto

The number of addresses depositing BTC on exchanges is currently collapsing, a clear signal of slowing activity across the market.

With around 31,000 addresses depositing BTC per day (30-dma), the indicator has now reached its lowest level of the past ten years.

For comparison, the annual average stands near 47,000 addresses, bringing overall activity back to levels last observed in 2017.

Historically, this type of sharp contraction in the number of depositing addresses tends to occur when bear markets are in advanced phases as the interest in the market gradually fades.

This trend highlights several key points :

- First, during prolonged correction phases, some investors completely disengages from the market. This loss of interest is also reflected in the decline of active addresses, indicating that fewer participants are interacting with the network.

- Second, current price levels do not appear to incentivize investors to move their BTC to exchanges in order to sell. On the contrary, they seem to favor a holding strategy, keeping their coins while waiting for more favorable market conditions.

- Third, the structure of the market has evolved over recent years. A growing share of investors now prefers self custody solutions or decentralized trading platforms, allowing them to maintain direct control over their assets and reduce their exposure to counterparty risk associated with centralized platforms, particularly after major events such as the collapse of FTX.

The sharp decline in depositing addresses on exchanges therefore reflects a market characterized by gradual participant disengagement and a clear slowdown in activity. Although such an environment is typically unfavorable in the short term, these phases often coincide with periods where selling pressure progressively exhausts itself.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin consolidates the $71,413 level, driven by the tactical relief of the US-Iran ceasefire. However, the rally faces a critical structural divergence: while buying aggression on Binance operates at extreme levels (Taker Buy Sell Ratio at 1.70) and the BTC - Price & OI Change 24h marks $6.580 billion and 24h%: 5.88%, the indicator that monitors capital backing, the Binance USDT Refresh Rate Z-Score (SMA-30), registers -1.58, confirming a statistical state of Systemic Liquidity Depletion.

INSTITUTIONAL INTERPRETATION AND MACRO CROSS-ANALYSIS

The abrupt drop in Brent crude (-12%) deflates the energy risk premium, theoretically favoring risk assets. However, the buying inertia in the derivatives of the globe's largest exchange is detached from real cash flow. In CryptoQuant's taxonomy, the -1.58 Z-Score reveals "Phantom Leverage": the market aggressively pushes the price using unrealized profits as margin, without the necessary injection of new USDT to sustain the order book. The fact that gold and Treasuries still attract flows confirms that institutional capital remains in a defensive mode, despite the euphoria of leveraged retail.

PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT (ASYMMETRY)

The asymmetry turns drastically against the longs. With liquidity in statistical depletion, the probability of a Long Squeeze becomes the most heavily weighted event for the short term. The current rally is a fragile "supply vacuum"; without the immediate entry of fresh capital to absorb possible profit-taking, local support becomes volatile.

CONCLUSION

Bitcoin at $71k reflects diplomatic optimism, but the -1.58 Z-Score on Binance is an out-of-gas warning: the market is accelerating with its stablecoin tank on reserve, making a correction a mathematical inevitability, and not just a scenario.

Written by GugaOnChain

My answer is a clear no.

Why?

Macroeconomic risks are still on the table — tight liquidity, elevated interest rates, bond market pressure, and more. On top of that, looking at Bitcoin's own internal dynamics, a bull market requires a weekly close above the STH Realized Price first, then above the SMA365. Have we seen either of those?

Again, no.

However, Bitcoin trading above its max pain and POC levels ($70K) does open up room for a move toward the STH RP in the $82-85K range. Even so, this would only be a relief rally — a short-term bounce, nothing more. A major trend reversal requires more than this.

Cheap money is still not back. Don't forget that.

Written by burakkesmeci

Ethereum’s sharp drop in leveraged positioning on Binance appears to have helped protect the market from a deeper breakdown, creating the conditions for the current recovery above $2,200.

The data shows Binance’s ETH Open Interest 30D Change fell to around -$2.13 billion in mid-February 2026, marking its deepest deleveraging phase since October 2025, when the metric reached roughly -$2.11 billion.

At the time, Ethereum managed to stabilize around the $1,800 level instead of extending its decline.

That matters because aggressive drops in open interest often reflect heavy leverage being flushed out of the market.

When that happens without a comparable collapse in price, it can signal that speculative excess has been cleared while the market builds a more stable base.

In this case, the leverage reset on Binance likely reduced liquidation pressure and helped prevent another sharp leg lower.

Rather than acting as a bearish continuation signal, the deleveraging phase appears to have served as a cleanup event that strengthened market structure.

That context is important now because Ethereum has since moved back above $2,200.

In other words, one of the largest leverage contractions in recent months may have helped absorb downside pressure near $1,800 and set the stage for the rebound that followed.

Written by Amr Taha

XRP continues to leave Binance, while derivatives traders still appear reluctant to rebuild aggressive leveraged exposure.

The data shows Binance’s cumulative XRP netflow value has fallen from around -$10.4 billion in mid-August 2025 to -$11.23 billion now, signaling a continued drain in XRP supply on the exchange.

Meanwhile, Binance XRP open interest has stayed only slightly above $200 million since mid-February 2026. That suggests speculative activity remains present, but not at the kind of elevated levels typically associated with stronger high-leverage conviction.

The takeaway is clear: exchange supply continues to thin, but derivatives traders are still not betting aggressively.

That leaves XRP in a market structure where available supply is weakening, yet speculative appetite remains muted.

Written by Amr Taha