After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture. The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding. Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
Inside, you’ll get: • Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro) • Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios • Smart money flow breakdowns • Clear market structure insights • Direct access + a serious community
This is NOT a signals group. This is where you build a real edge. If you’re tired of: - following the crowd - entering too late - not understanding why the market moves
Then this is exactly for you. Founder one-time access: $39 Limited spots available
Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly This post will be auto-deleted in 15 days
The market doesn’t reward the fastest. It rewards the most prepared.
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
Want to understand markets better? Study this post right here.
Stop looking only at how far price moved. Start watching how hard the market had to work to get there.
At the June 6 low, one thing I pointed out was that $BTC ’s trip from $82K back toward $60K took substantially longer than February’s liquidation into the same area. The destination looked unbelievably ugly, but the way price got there was different, and that mattered.
Now we’re getting the other side of that test.
Starting around March 30, Bitcoin needed more than a week of grinding to work its way from the spring area back to 72k... This time it has done most of that work in just a couple of days.
So far, so good. But the bigger tell comes next.
Last time, getting from that spring area all the way back to $82K took roughly five weeks. If Bitcoin can work through the same supply and do it materially faster this time, while keeping the reactions shallow and holding the ground it gains, that tells us something important...
There may simply be a lot less supply left to work through.
That’s effort vs. result in real time.
Don’t just ask where price went. Ask how much work it took to get there.
Two days ago, before $BTC put in this move, I pointed out an H1 spring attempt in BTC/SPX.
It was nice to see on the low timeframe, but we also said one good day is never enough. Since then, it has done exactly what we wanted it to do and needed it to do... built a series of higher lows, kept reclaiming local relative-strength ranges, and now expanded hard.
Next I want the eventual pullback to hold and the daily chart to begin building the same kind of structure before I call this a real higher-timeframe change.
This is how a larger change starts. Absolutely beautiful on the low timeframes, but naturally it still has much work to do on the higher timeframes.
Bluechip
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One of the earliest warnings that Bitcoin’s top was forming wasn’t on the Bitcoin chart. It was on $BTC /SPX
The ratio peaked last summer and began making lower highs while Bitcoin was still near its highs. If you only watched BTCUSD, the shift was easy to miss. Against the S&P, Bitcoin had already started losing the competition for capital.
And at the bare minimum, Bitcoin has to outperform the S&P. You get 500 companies, deep liquidity, and far less volatility. If Bitcoin can’t beat that benchmark, why take the extra risk? That’s a big reason I had very little interest in being structurally long Bitcoin through this decline.
Today gets my attention because Bitcoin is holding up while stocks are getting hit and BTC/SPX is pushing higher. But one day doesn’t change a year-long trend.
Coming out of the last bear market, this ratio began building higher lows before Bitcoin became the better trade. That’s what I want to see now... higher lows, higher highs, and actual structure.
The S&P doesn’t have to crash. Bitcoin just has to become the better trade again.
$BTC : There is significantly more long liquidation liquidity accumulated below the current price.
Long liquidation levels: 1,037 Short liquidation levels: 136 Difference: +901
Short-term momentum remains strong, but from a liquidity perspective, the risk of a sharp downside sweep is higher. The $68K–$66K zone is the key area to watch
Before you jump into FOMO, understand the real reason behind
$BTC ’s surge today and it started in the U.S. bond market. The U.S. Treasury announced that it would double its long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation starting September 9.
The result was immediate:👇 Bond yields fell sharply The dollar weakened ₿ Bitcoin moved toward $70,000
After the rally began, a massive short squeeze followed. Short liquidations forced short sellers to buy back BTC to close their positions, accelerating the move even further.
In short: Treasury supports the bond market ⬅️ Bond prices rise ⬅️ Yields fall ⬅️ Dollar weakens ⬅️ Financial conditions improve for risk assets ⬅️ $BTC rises
More importantly, the $4 billion per operation starts on September 9 and runs through November 4, while the Treasury plans to buy back around $83 billion during the quarter.
So compared with the roughly $32.2 trillion size of the Treasury market, the program is relatively small.
Its main impact is therefore to improve liquidity in the bond market and put downward pressure on yields not to inject massive liquidity like a QE program.
It jumped up by $5k in an hour! IS THE BOTTOM IN?? That’s the big question on everyone’s mind. $BTC climbed up to the 200-day MA, for the second touch of this moving average during the bear market. The previous time was May 2026 at $82k. In past bear markets, this moving average has been tagged twice as well, and lower prices were still eventually reached. This is normal behavior. Does it mean it will happen again? Bulls will state that past behavior isn’t a guarantee of future behavior, and thus, BTC won't go lower again this time, and the bottom is in. Could it be? It’s possible, and increasingly so. I'm not saying they're wrong. The odds of bulls being wrong just went down. But I'm also not yet 100% convinced they are right. My confidence is a sliding scale-- not binary. We are close enough, in time, to the final bottom zone that I wouldn’t rule out the bottom being in at this point. Furthermore, bitcoin has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, which is a bottom pattern. BUT it's only a few hours into this pattern, and typical confirmation (to avoid fakeouts and deviations) should allow for the daily and even weekly candle closes. Because a bitcoin bear market is a multi-month process, longer time-frame candles are more reliable. However! In past bear markets BTC has still gone lower in the months that follow, so it’s not a guaranteed celebration yet, imho. In terms of time, we are also a couple of months away from a typical cycle bottom. That's not the only way of measuring things though. Ultimately, maybe we just get a re-test of the lows, rather than new lows. There are many possibilities for how this plays out. The truth is-- there are many metrics and methods of analysis that go both ways (stating the bottom is in and stating the bottom is not in). This is because we are in the BOTTOMING ZONE-- we're getting CLOSE if the bottom isn't in already. With a long enough investing time horizon we are close enough that it won't matter much. My personal guess is that we still see the price drop back down, to the range lows at a minimum, within the next ~2 months. This is my guess, though. It gets more difficult to accurately predict when we get toward the actual bottom, as things get less definitive (it's easier to say the bottom is not in when we're further from it). Money Speaks Louder Than Words. What Am I Actually Doing? I’ve already allocated 42% of my cash back into BTC around the $60k-$62k level. This is me DCAing back in. I also allocated another 23% to a stock I feel very confident about ($ABCL) which recently doubled in price, much to my satisfaction. But I also continue to hold my last 35% portion of cash for further dip-buying opportunities in the 4-8 weeks to come. One thing is for sure: we are in the final inning of the bear market (assuming there is some bear market remaining). I have never said it was wrong to begin DCAing from the low $60k range. Like I said: I, myself, *began* doing so between $60-$62k. But rather than chase euphoric FOMO pump-candles (like we're seeing now), I think it's best to buy on *dips*. Credit: @collin
Ethereum Breaks $2,100 for the First Time This Summer
Ethereum has broken above the $2,000 mark for the first time since June 2, extending its recovery after a difficult first half of the year. So far, $ETH is up 31.1% in Q3, already exceeding the −25.3% decline recorded in Q2 in percentage terms.
After two consecutive negative quarters, Q3 is now on track to become Ethereum’s first positive quarter of 2026.
$BTC is nearing a key technical breakout, with a decisive move above $66,800 potentially opening the door to $76,000, according to market technician Aksel Kibar.
$BTC broke to 65K after hours of chop. Spot CVD stayed green the entire range, OI re-expanded into the move.
CVD: - Spot (Binance, 15m): +242.43M, never flipped red. Buyers held control. - Perp (Binance Futures, 15m): +1.22B, 5x spot size. Leverage chasing, not fighting.
Derivatives: - Funding: 0.0048%, positive but low. No overheated crowding. - OI: fell 22.4B → 21.8B during chop, snapped to 22.26B on breakout. Fresh positions.
Coinbase Premium: -0.08%. Not US spot demand.
OI drop then rebound = shorts closed, longs entered. MA cross confirmed breakout.
✅ Bullish. Spot CVD held. OI climbing = fresh longs, not covering.
⚠️ Perp CVD 5x bigger than spot. This is leverage-driven. If OI and funding keep climbing without spot, setup for squeeze then sharp unwind.
SK Hynix has staged a clear rebound and is currently trading around $1,173.54, forming a relatively strong bullish impulse structure.
News: Today, SK Hynix officially announced a share buyback program worth approximately 40 trillion won (about $28.6 billion). The company plans to repurchase around 24.07 million shares (roughly 3.3% of total outstanding shares) between August 20 and November 19, and will cancel all of them upon completion.
This represents one of the largest share cancellations by a listed company in South Korea’s history. At the same time, the company has raised its shareholder return target to over 50% of cumulative free cash flow for the 2025–2027 period.