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律动BlockBeats
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律动BlockBeats是最具有影响力的中文媒体之一。为满足区块链初学者、爱好者、从业者、投资者等多种类型读者需求，内容类型囊括区块链及数字货币入门学习文章、热门事件报道、律动原创研究、行业现象深度剖析、知名大 V 观点分享、一线高质量采访等，内容展示形式包括图文、音频及视频。
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Nansen集成Hyperliquid永续合约交易，支持聪明钱及链上数据分析BlockBeats 消息，7 月 7 日，据官方消息，区块链数据分析平台 Nansen 宣布已正式上线 Hyperliquid Perp（永续合约交易）功能，面向所有网页端和移动端用户开放。用户在追踪 Smart Money、巨鲸地址及知名投资者链上动态的同时，可直接在 Nansen 内完成 Hyperliquid 永续合约交易，并实时查看资金费率、多空持仓比例、钱包级仓位分布等关键数据，实现「研究即交易」的一体化体验。
Nansen 表示，平台同步推出 Hyperliquid Perps Leaderboard（永续合约排行榜），支持按 Smart Money、巨鲸及头部交易员进行筛选，并可依据近 7 天、30 天或历史累计表现进行排序，帮助用户快速发现表现领先的钱包地址。此外，用户还可通过应用内从外部钱包充值，或从已连接的 Solana、Base 钱包跨链至 Hyperliquid，也可直接接收来自其他 Hyperliquid 地址的资产转账。
除交易功能外，Nansen 还进一步扩展了对 Hyperliquid 生态的数据覆盖，包括 HyperFND 链上活动监测和 Hyperliquid Data API。用户可实时追踪 HyperEVM 活跃地址、合约部署及生态增长情况，而开发团队则可通过 API 获取实时 Smart Money 永续合约持仓、未实现盈亏（PnL）、账户健康度、完整交易历史及绩效数据，为量化分析、策略开发及应用构建提供支持。
Nansen集成Hyperliquid永续合约交易，支持聪明钱及链上数据分析
BlockBeats 消息，7 月 7 日，据官方消息，区块链数据分析平台 Nansen 宣布已正式上线 Hyperliquid Perp（永续合约交易）功能，面向所有网页端和移动端用户开放。用户在追踪 Smart Money、巨鲸地址及知名投资者链上动态的同时，可直接在 Nansen 内完成 Hyperliquid 永续合约交易，并实时查看资金费率、多空持仓比例、钱包级仓位分布等关键数据，实现「研究即交易」的一体化体验。
Nansen 表示，平台同步推出 Hyperliquid Perps Leaderboard（永续合约排行榜），支持按 Smart Money、巨鲸及头部交易员进行筛选，并可依据近 7 天、30 天或历史累计表现进行排序，帮助用户快速发现表现领先的钱包地址。此外，用户还可通过应用内从外部钱包充值，或从已连接的 Solana、Base 钱包跨链至 Hyperliquid，也可直接接收来自其他 Hyperliquid 地址的资产转账。
除交易功能外，Nansen 还进一步扩展了对 Hyperliquid 生态的数据覆盖，包括 HyperFND 链上活动监测和 Hyperliquid Data API。用户可实时追踪 HyperEVM 活跃地址、合约部署及生态增长情况，而开发团队则可通过 API 获取实时 Smart Money 永续合约持仓、未实现盈亏（PnL）、账户健康度、完整交易历史及绩效数据，为量化分析、策略开发及应用构建提供支持。
Nansen 表示，平台同步推出 Hyperliquid Perps Leaderboard（永续合约排行榜），支持按 Smart Money、巨鲸及头部交易员进行筛选，并可依据近 7 天、30 天或历史累计表现进行排序，帮助用户快速发现表现领先的钱包地址。此外，用户还可通过应用内从外部钱包充值，或从已连接的 Solana、Base 钱包跨链至 Hyperliquid，也可直接接收来自其他 Hyperliquid 地址的资产转账。
除交易功能外，Nansen 还进一步扩展了对 Hyperliquid 生态的数据覆盖，包括 HyperFND 链上活动监测和 Hyperliquid Data API。用户可实时追踪 HyperEVM 活跃地址、合约部署及生态增长情况，而开发团队则可通过 API 获取实时 Smart Money 永续合约持仓、未实现盈亏（PnL）、账户健康度、完整交易历史及绩效数据，为量化分析、策略开发及应用构建提供支持。
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See translation
AI 交易要从芯片换到云巨头了吗？TL;DR
· 摩根士丹利策略师 Michael Wilson 认为，AI 持仓可从半导体转向微软、亚马逊、Meta 等云基础设施巨头。
· 市场分歧在于，这轮轮动是 AI 行情扩散，还是投资者开始质疑巨额 AI 投入回报。
· 关联标的：MSFT、AMZN、META、NVDA、AMD、SOXX、SMH
摩根士丹利美国股票策略师 Michael Wilson 在最近策略观点中提出，半导体股动能减弱，投资者可更多关注微软、亚马逊、Meta 等 AI 超大规模云厂商。据 Invezz 7 月 6 日转述，Wilson 团队认为，部分此前跑输的云基础设施巨头，在芯片股波动后吸引力上升。
这句话被市场放大，是因为它把 AI 交易换了一个问法。过去两年，资金主要买「谁给 AI 供货」。现在，市场开始问「谁能把 AI 基础设施变成收入和利润」。
英伟达、AMD 等芯片公司，是 AI 建设周期里的上游供给方。微软、亚马逊、Meta 则是购买芯片、建设数据中心，再通过云服务、广告和 AI 产品赚钱的平台。
如果芯片上涨只由订单驱动，资金继续押上游就够了。但在半导体股上半年大涨后，近期又出现较大波动，问题变成了另一种：AI 主题是否降温，还是资金仍在 AI 内部换仓。
芯片波动压低了追高赔率
Wilson 的判断建立在一个直接现象上：半导体交易已经很拥挤。费城半导体指数此前受 AI 需求推动走高，但 7 月初出现明显回调，随后芯片股又有反弹。
更合理的解释是，半导体股已经提前计入很多乐观预期。只要估值和涨幅足够高，哪怕基本面没有恶化，资金也可能先兑现收益。
对投资者而言，问题不再是「芯片好不好」，而是「现在继续追芯片，赔率是否还比其他 AI 资产更好」。当上游已经涨过一轮，市场自然会寻找此前相对滞后的环节。
在 Wilson 的框架下，这轮轮动是 AI 交易内部换领涨资产。主题没有消失，但资金开始要求新的证明方式。过去看订单和交付，现在要看使用、收入和利润。
云巨头承接的是变现预期
云巨头成为资金目的地，是因为它们有两个身份。一方面，它们是 AI 芯片和数据中心的最大买家之一。另一方面，它们也最有机会把这些投入商业化。
微软可以把 AI 嵌入办公软件和云服务，亚马逊拥有大规模云业务，Meta 则可以把 AI 用在广告推荐、内容生成和基础模型上。相比纯上游公司，它们还有原有主业提供现金流缓冲。
这正是市场重新定价的地方。过去，投资者愿意为「AI 建设强度」付费，最直接受益的是芯片和设备链。现在，资金开始为「AI 变现可能性」付费，云巨头的估值逻辑会被重新讨论。
但这还没有验证完成。微软、亚马逊和 Meta 如果要接棒，不能只依靠「买了很多芯片」这个事实，还要证明资本开支能转化为更高的云收入、更强的广告效率，或更稳定的利润率。
资本开支纪律改变定价
云巨头资本开支节奏也是重要变量。用更白话的说法，公司不再只比谁建更多数据中心，而是开始衡量每一美元 AI 投入能否带来回报。
短期看，这对云巨头股价可能是利好。此前市场担心它们为了 AI 竞赛持续烧钱，拖累自由现金流和利润率。如果管理层释放更克制的支出信号，投资者会更容易接受「AI 投入进入理性阶段」这条叙事。
同一件事对上游并不一定友好。芯片公司最需要客户持续下单。如果云巨头资本开支只是从高速增长转为有选择地增长，影响可能有限。如果支出放缓超预期，半导体订单和估值都可能继续承压。
所以，云巨头接棒不代表芯片逻辑失效。两者仍在同一条 AI 产业链上。变化在于，市场不再只奖励投入规模，也开始奖励投入效率。
标普 8000 点需要行情扩散
摩根士丹利在中期展望中将标普 500 年末目标从 7800 点上调至 8000 点。这个目标给轮动提供了更大背景：如果指数还要上行，不能只靠少数芯片股反复拉升，必须有更多权重股接住 AI 叙事。
从指数层面看，微软、亚马逊、Meta 的权重和盈利稳定性都足够重要。如果它们成为新的领涨力量，AI 行情就会从单一上游交易，扩展为更广泛的科技股盈利重估。
风险在于，价格表现有时会掩盖资金性质。如果资金只是从芯片撤出，转向云巨头避险，而云巨头没有形成持续买盘，这就不是健康扩散，只是拥挤交易松动后的防御性迁移。
两种情景在短期走势上可能相似，但对指数含义不同。前者对应 AI 牛市进入变现阶段，后者对应投资者开始怀疑 AI 投入回报，只是在科技股内部寻找相对安全的停靠点。
财报数据决定换仓空间
这次轮动最终要落到几组硬数据上。微软、亚马逊和 Meta 的下一轮财报，能否给出更清晰的 AI 收入线索。资本开支指引是温和放缓还是明显收缩，利润率能否证明 AI 投入没有侵蚀原有业务质量。
对芯片股来说，英伟达和 AMD 的订单、指引和客户需求同样关键。如果上游指引继续强劲，半导体回调可能只是估值消化，资金仍可能回到芯片链。如果指引松动，轮动框架会更容易被市场接受。
现在更合适的判断不是芯片时代结束，也不是云巨头必然接棒。AI 交易正在从供给侧热情，进入变现侧验证。下一轮财报里，资本开支、云收入和利润率能否同时站住，将决定这次换仓是短期避险，还是 AI 主线进入下一阶段。
AI 交易要从芯片换到云巨头了吗？
TL;DR
· 摩根士丹利策略师 Michael Wilson 认为，AI 持仓可从半导体转向微软、亚马逊、Meta 等云基础设施巨头。
· 市场分歧在于，这轮轮动是 AI 行情扩散，还是投资者开始质疑巨额 AI 投入回报。
· 关联标的：MSFT、AMZN、META、NVDA、AMD、SOXX、SMH
摩根士丹利美国股票策略师 Michael Wilson 在最近策略观点中提出，半导体股动能减弱，投资者可更多关注微软、亚马逊、Meta 等 AI 超大规模云厂商。据 Invezz 7 月 6 日转述，Wilson 团队认为，部分此前跑输的云基础设施巨头，在芯片股波动后吸引力上升。
这句话被市场放大，是因为它把 AI 交易换了一个问法。过去两年，资金主要买「谁给 AI 供货」。现在，市场开始问「谁能把 AI 基础设施变成收入和利润」。
英伟达、AMD 等芯片公司，是 AI 建设周期里的上游供给方。微软、亚马逊、Meta 则是购买芯片、建设数据中心，再通过云服务、广告和 AI 产品赚钱的平台。
如果芯片上涨只由订单驱动，资金继续押上游就够了。但在半导体股上半年大涨后，近期又出现较大波动，问题变成了另一种：AI 主题是否降温，还是资金仍在 AI 内部换仓。
芯片波动压低了追高赔率
Wilson 的判断建立在一个直接现象上：半导体交易已经很拥挤。费城半导体指数此前受 AI 需求推动走高，但 7 月初出现明显回调，随后芯片股又有反弹。
更合理的解释是，半导体股已经提前计入很多乐观预期。只要估值和涨幅足够高，哪怕基本面没有恶化，资金也可能先兑现收益。
对投资者而言，问题不再是「芯片好不好」，而是「现在继续追芯片，赔率是否还比其他 AI 资产更好」。当上游已经涨过一轮，市场自然会寻找此前相对滞后的环节。
在 Wilson 的框架下，这轮轮动是 AI 交易内部换领涨资产。主题没有消失，但资金开始要求新的证明方式。过去看订单和交付，现在要看使用、收入和利润。
云巨头承接的是变现预期
云巨头成为资金目的地，是因为它们有两个身份。一方面，它们是 AI 芯片和数据中心的最大买家之一。另一方面，它们也最有机会把这些投入商业化。
微软可以把 AI 嵌入办公软件和云服务，亚马逊拥有大规模云业务，Meta 则可以把 AI 用在广告推荐、内容生成和基础模型上。相比纯上游公司，它们还有原有主业提供现金流缓冲。
这正是市场重新定价的地方。过去，投资者愿意为「AI 建设强度」付费，最直接受益的是芯片和设备链。现在，资金开始为「AI 变现可能性」付费，云巨头的估值逻辑会被重新讨论。
但这还没有验证完成。微软、亚马逊和 Meta 如果要接棒，不能只依靠「买了很多芯片」这个事实，还要证明资本开支能转化为更高的云收入、更强的广告效率，或更稳定的利润率。
资本开支纪律改变定价
云巨头资本开支节奏也是重要变量。用更白话的说法，公司不再只比谁建更多数据中心，而是开始衡量每一美元 AI 投入能否带来回报。
短期看，这对云巨头股价可能是利好。此前市场担心它们为了 AI 竞赛持续烧钱，拖累自由现金流和利润率。如果管理层释放更克制的支出信号，投资者会更容易接受「AI 投入进入理性阶段」这条叙事。
同一件事对上游并不一定友好。芯片公司最需要客户持续下单。如果云巨头资本开支只是从高速增长转为有选择地增长，影响可能有限。如果支出放缓超预期，半导体订单和估值都可能继续承压。
所以，云巨头接棒不代表芯片逻辑失效。两者仍在同一条 AI 产业链上。变化在于，市场不再只奖励投入规模，也开始奖励投入效率。
标普 8000 点需要行情扩散
摩根士丹利在中期展望中将标普 500 年末目标从 7800 点上调至 8000 点。这个目标给轮动提供了更大背景：如果指数还要上行，不能只靠少数芯片股反复拉升，必须有更多权重股接住 AI 叙事。
从指数层面看，微软、亚马逊、Meta 的权重和盈利稳定性都足够重要。如果它们成为新的领涨力量，AI 行情就会从单一上游交易，扩展为更广泛的科技股盈利重估。
风险在于，价格表现有时会掩盖资金性质。如果资金只是从芯片撤出，转向云巨头避险，而云巨头没有形成持续买盘，这就不是健康扩散，只是拥挤交易松动后的防御性迁移。
两种情景在短期走势上可能相似，但对指数含义不同。前者对应 AI 牛市进入变现阶段，后者对应投资者开始怀疑 AI 投入回报，只是在科技股内部寻找相对安全的停靠点。
财报数据决定换仓空间
这次轮动最终要落到几组硬数据上。微软、亚马逊和 Meta 的下一轮财报，能否给出更清晰的 AI 收入线索。资本开支指引是温和放缓还是明显收缩，利润率能否证明 AI 投入没有侵蚀原有业务质量。
对芯片股来说，英伟达和 AMD 的订单、指引和客户需求同样关键。如果上游指引继续强劲，半导体回调可能只是估值消化，资金仍可能回到芯片链。如果指引松动，轮动框架会更容易被市场接受。
现在更合适的判断不是芯片时代结束，也不是云巨头必然接棒。AI 交易正在从供给侧热情，进入变现侧验证。下一轮财报里，资本开支、云收入和利润率能否同时站住，将决定这次换仓是短期避险，还是 AI 主线进入下一阶段。
· 摩根士丹利策略师 Michael Wilson 认为，AI 持仓可从半导体转向微软、亚马逊、Meta 等云基础设施巨头。
· 市场分歧在于，这轮轮动是 AI 行情扩散，还是投资者开始质疑巨额 AI 投入回报。
· 关联标的：MSFT、AMZN、META、NVDA、AMD、SOXX、SMH
摩根士丹利美国股票策略师 Michael Wilson 在最近策略观点中提出，半导体股动能减弱，投资者可更多关注微软、亚马逊、Meta 等 AI 超大规模云厂商。据 Invezz 7 月 6 日转述，Wilson 团队认为，部分此前跑输的云基础设施巨头，在芯片股波动后吸引力上升。
这句话被市场放大，是因为它把 AI 交易换了一个问法。过去两年，资金主要买「谁给 AI 供货」。现在，市场开始问「谁能把 AI 基础设施变成收入和利润」。
英伟达、AMD 等芯片公司，是 AI 建设周期里的上游供给方。微软、亚马逊、Meta 则是购买芯片、建设数据中心，再通过云服务、广告和 AI 产品赚钱的平台。
如果芯片上涨只由订单驱动，资金继续押上游就够了。但在半导体股上半年大涨后，近期又出现较大波动，问题变成了另一种：AI 主题是否降温，还是资金仍在 AI 内部换仓。
芯片波动压低了追高赔率
Wilson 的判断建立在一个直接现象上：半导体交易已经很拥挤。费城半导体指数此前受 AI 需求推动走高，但 7 月初出现明显回调，随后芯片股又有反弹。
更合理的解释是，半导体股已经提前计入很多乐观预期。只要估值和涨幅足够高，哪怕基本面没有恶化，资金也可能先兑现收益。
对投资者而言，问题不再是「芯片好不好」，而是「现在继续追芯片，赔率是否还比其他 AI 资产更好」。当上游已经涨过一轮，市场自然会寻找此前相对滞后的环节。
在 Wilson 的框架下，这轮轮动是 AI 交易内部换领涨资产。主题没有消失，但资金开始要求新的证明方式。过去看订单和交付，现在要看使用、收入和利润。
云巨头承接的是变现预期
云巨头成为资金目的地，是因为它们有两个身份。一方面，它们是 AI 芯片和数据中心的最大买家之一。另一方面，它们也最有机会把这些投入商业化。
微软可以把 AI 嵌入办公软件和云服务，亚马逊拥有大规模云业务，Meta 则可以把 AI 用在广告推荐、内容生成和基础模型上。相比纯上游公司，它们还有原有主业提供现金流缓冲。
这正是市场重新定价的地方。过去，投资者愿意为「AI 建设强度」付费，最直接受益的是芯片和设备链。现在，资金开始为「AI 变现可能性」付费，云巨头的估值逻辑会被重新讨论。
但这还没有验证完成。微软、亚马逊和 Meta 如果要接棒，不能只依靠「买了很多芯片」这个事实，还要证明资本开支能转化为更高的云收入、更强的广告效率，或更稳定的利润率。
资本开支纪律改变定价
云巨头资本开支节奏也是重要变量。用更白话的说法，公司不再只比谁建更多数据中心，而是开始衡量每一美元 AI 投入能否带来回报。
短期看，这对云巨头股价可能是利好。此前市场担心它们为了 AI 竞赛持续烧钱，拖累自由现金流和利润率。如果管理层释放更克制的支出信号，投资者会更容易接受「AI 投入进入理性阶段」这条叙事。
同一件事对上游并不一定友好。芯片公司最需要客户持续下单。如果云巨头资本开支只是从高速增长转为有选择地增长，影响可能有限。如果支出放缓超预期，半导体订单和估值都可能继续承压。
所以，云巨头接棒不代表芯片逻辑失效。两者仍在同一条 AI 产业链上。变化在于，市场不再只奖励投入规模，也开始奖励投入效率。
标普 8000 点需要行情扩散
摩根士丹利在中期展望中将标普 500 年末目标从 7800 点上调至 8000 点。这个目标给轮动提供了更大背景：如果指数还要上行，不能只靠少数芯片股反复拉升，必须有更多权重股接住 AI 叙事。
从指数层面看，微软、亚马逊、Meta 的权重和盈利稳定性都足够重要。如果它们成为新的领涨力量，AI 行情就会从单一上游交易，扩展为更广泛的科技股盈利重估。
风险在于，价格表现有时会掩盖资金性质。如果资金只是从芯片撤出，转向云巨头避险，而云巨头没有形成持续买盘，这就不是健康扩散，只是拥挤交易松动后的防御性迁移。
两种情景在短期走势上可能相似，但对指数含义不同。前者对应 AI 牛市进入变现阶段，后者对应投资者开始怀疑 AI 投入回报，只是在科技股内部寻找相对安全的停靠点。
财报数据决定换仓空间
这次轮动最终要落到几组硬数据上。微软、亚马逊和 Meta 的下一轮财报，能否给出更清晰的 AI 收入线索。资本开支指引是温和放缓还是明显收缩，利润率能否证明 AI 投入没有侵蚀原有业务质量。
对芯片股来说，英伟达和 AMD 的订单、指引和客户需求同样关键。如果上游指引继续强劲，半导体回调可能只是估值消化，资金仍可能回到芯片链。如果指引松动，轮动框架会更容易被市场接受。
现在更合适的判断不是芯片时代结束，也不是云巨头必然接棒。AI 交易正在从供给侧热情，进入变现侧验证。下一轮财报里，资本开支、云收入和利润率能否同时站住，将决定这次换仓是短期避险，还是 AI 主线进入下一阶段。
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Analysis: Strategy’s first large-scale BTC sale in five years, but the market has not shown excessive panicBlockBeats message. On July 7, Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently sold 3,588 BTC, worth about $216 million, marking the largest-scale Bitcoin sale in the company’s history. However, the market did not show any obvious downturn, and the BTC price remained around $63,000.
This is the first time Strategy has recorded large-scale net selling since December 2022. The sale was completed in two batches: between June 29 and 30, 1,363 BTC were sold at an average price of about $59,256, raising $80.8 million; between July 1 and 5, 2,225 BTC were sold at an average price of about $60,773, raising $135.2 million. In total, it raised about $216 million.
Analysis: Strategy’s first large-scale BTC sale in five years, but the market has not shown excessive panic
BlockBeats message. On July 7, Crypto Quant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently sold 3,588 BTC, worth about $216 million, marking the largest-scale Bitcoin sale in the company’s history. However, the market did not show any obvious downturn, and the BTC price remained around $63,000.
This is the first time Strategy has recorded large-scale net selling since December 2022. The sale was completed in two batches: between June 29 and 30, 1,363 BTC were sold at an average price of about $59,256, raising $80.8 million; between July 1 and 5, 2,225 BTC were sold at an average price of about $60,773, raising $135.2 million. In total, it raised about $216 million.
This is the first time Strategy has recorded large-scale net selling since December 2022. The sale was completed in two batches: between June 29 and 30, 1,363 BTC were sold at an average price of about $59,256, raising $80.8 million; between July 1 and 5, 2,225 BTC were sold at an average price of about $60,773, raising $135.2 million. In total, it raised about $216 million.
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BlockBeats messages: On July 7, BofA Securities issued a research report stating that the six-month lock-up period for MINIMAX-W after its listing will expire tomorrow (August 8). It is expected to bring share price volatility, but there is also a chance that it will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on August 6, which may provide liquidity support. BofA Securities has maintained a “Buy” rating for MiniMax, with a target price of HK$500.
BlockBeats messages: On July 7, BofA Securities issued a research report stating that the six-month lock-up period for MINIMAX-W after its listing will expire tomorrow (August 8). It is expected to bring share price volatility, but there is also a chance that it will be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on August 6, which may provide liquidity support. BofA Securities has maintained a “Buy” rating for MiniMax, with a target price of HK$500.
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BlockBeats news. July 7: According to Coinglass data, Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has been in a negative premium range for 50 consecutive days since May 19, with the latest reading at -0.0742%. This also sets a new record for the longest consecutive negative premium since the index was launched.
Previously, this index was in a negative premium range for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, exceeding the roughly 30 days of consecutive negative premium during the "1011 crash" period. Historical data shows that prolonged negative premiums are often accompanied by outflows of U.S. institutional funds, or may indicate that the market could face some pullback pressure in the short term.
BlockBeats news. July 7: According to Coinglass data, Coinbase’s Bitcoin premium index has been in a negative premium range for 50 consecutive days since May 19, with the latest reading at -0.0742%. This also sets a new record for the longest consecutive negative premium since the index was launched.
Previously, this index was in a negative premium range for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, exceeding the roughly 30 days of consecutive negative premium during the "1011 crash" period. Historical data shows that prolonged negative premiums are often accompanied by outflows of U.S. institutional funds, or may indicate that the market could face some pullback pressure in the short term.
Previously, this index was in a negative premium range for 40 consecutive days from January 16 to February 24 this year, exceeding the roughly 30 days of consecutive negative premium during the "1011 crash" period. Historical data shows that prolonged negative premiums are often accompanied by outflows of U.S. institutional funds, or may indicate that the market could face some pullback pressure in the short term.
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IOSG: Q-Day Countdown—Will Quantum Computing End Cryptocurrency?Original Title: (IOSG Weekly Brief｜Q-Day Countdown: Can Quantum Computing End Cryptocurrency? #335)
Original Author: 0xjacobzhao. IOSG Ventures
Suppose that on a certain day in the year 203X, in the early hours of the morning, an on-chain monitoring alert suddenly tears through the silence: a batch of early BTC addresses that had been dormant for more than a decade begins to transfer assets outward in a ghost-like manner. There is no hacking, no leaked private keys—only “legal” signatures that appear out of thin air. When high-value, long-sleeping UTXOs are cleared one after another, the market finally snaps out of its dream: some unknown quantum computing entity is already able to reverse-engineer private keys directly from historically exposed public keys. Panic instantly pierces the market. Deep in the dark web, a public-key vault collected over ten years—“harvest first, decrypt later”—is being crazily auctioned, waiting for computing power to cash out the wealth.
IOSG: Q-Day Countdown—Will Quantum Computing End Cryptocurrency?
Original Title: (IOSG Weekly Brief｜Q-Day Countdown: Can Quantum Computing End Cryptocurrency? #335)
Original Author: 0xjacobzhao. IOSG Ventures
Suppose that on a certain day in the year 203X, in the early hours of the morning, an on-chain monitoring alert suddenly tears through the silence: a batch of early BTC addresses that had been dormant for more than a decade begins to transfer assets outward in a ghost-like manner. There is no hacking, no leaked private keys—only “legal” signatures that appear out of thin air. When high-value, long-sleeping UTXOs are cleared one after another, the market finally snaps out of its dream: some unknown quantum computing entity is already able to reverse-engineer private keys directly from historically exposed public keys. Panic instantly pierces the market. Deep in the dark web, a public-key vault collected over ten years—“harvest first, decrypt later”—is being crazily auctioned, waiting for computing power to cash out the wealth.
Original Author: 0xjacobzhao. IOSG Ventures
Suppose that on a certain day in the year 203X, in the early hours of the morning, an on-chain monitoring alert suddenly tears through the silence: a batch of early BTC addresses that had been dormant for more than a decade begins to transfer assets outward in a ghost-like manner. There is no hacking, no leaked private keys—only “legal” signatures that appear out of thin air. When high-value, long-sleeping UTXOs are cleared one after another, the market finally snaps out of its dream: some unknown quantum computing entity is already able to reverse-engineer private keys directly from historically exposed public keys. Panic instantly pierces the market. Deep in the dark web, a public-key vault collected over ten years—“harvest first, decrypt later”—is being crazily auctioned, waiting for computing power to cash out the wealth.
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BlockBeats message, July 7: Former Tether chief investment officer Richard Heathcote plans to sell part of his Tether equity holdings. His current ownership stake is about 1.26%. This secondary equity sale is handled by PJT Partners, which is currently in talks with potential buyers.
BlockBeats message, July 7: Former Tether chief investment officer Richard Heathcote plans to sell part of his Tether equity holdings. His current ownership stake is about 1.26%. This secondary equity sale is handled by PJT Partners, which is currently in talks with potential buyers.
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BlockBeats news. On July 7, according to data from the prediction market platform Predict.fun, in the Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup between the United States, Canada, and Mexico, Argentina will face Egypt. As of the time of writing, the market gives Argentina a qualification probability of about 85% and Egypt about 14%. Traders generally expect reigning champions Argentina to advance to the quarterfinals.
It is worth noting that in the previous round, both sides battled for 120 minutes before barely securing qualification. Argentina eliminated Cape Verde in extra time, but the team’s back line and physical condition were put to the test. Egypt, meanwhile, beat Australia in a penalty shootout to achieve the best World Cup performance in the team’s history. This match will also mark the first direct meeting between Messi and Salah on the World Cup stage.
BlockBeats news. On July 7, according to data from the prediction market platform Predict.fun, in the Round of 16 of the 2026 World Cup between the United States, Canada, and Mexico, Argentina will face Egypt. As of the time of writing, the market gives Argentina a qualification probability of about 85% and Egypt about 14%. Traders generally expect reigning champions Argentina to advance to the quarterfinals.
It is worth noting that in the previous round, both sides battled for 120 minutes before barely securing qualification. Argentina eliminated Cape Verde in extra time, but the team’s back line and physical condition were put to the test. Egypt, meanwhile, beat Australia in a penalty shootout to achieve the best World Cup performance in the team’s history. This match will also mark the first direct meeting between Messi and Salah on the World Cup stage.
It is worth noting that in the previous round, both sides battled for 120 minutes before barely securing qualification. Argentina eliminated Cape Verde in extra time, but the team’s back line and physical condition were put to the test. Egypt, meanwhile, beat Australia in a penalty shootout to achieve the best World Cup performance in the team’s history. This match will also mark the first direct meeting between Messi and Salah on the World Cup stage.
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BlockBeats messages. On July 7, according to monitoring by OnchainLens, a whale address 「0xf822」 deposited USDC worth about $6.3 million into Hyperliquid approximately 3 hours ago and opened a 3x leveraged HYPE short position. Currently, it holds about 692,200 HYPE short contracts with a position value of approximately $49 million. The entry price is $66.02, the stop-loss price is $70.78, and the unrealized loss is about $3.3 million.
This address currently holds a total of 5 positions, with a total position value of approximately $126.8 million and cumulative realized profits of about $4.39 million.
BlockBeats messages. On July 7, according to monitoring by OnchainLens, a whale address 「0xf822」 deposited USDC worth about $6.3 million into Hyperliquid approximately 3 hours ago and opened a 3x leveraged HYPE short position. Currently, it holds about 692,200 HYPE short contracts with a position value of approximately $49 million. The entry price is $66.02, the stop-loss price is $70.78, and the unrealized loss is about $3.3 million.
This address currently holds a total of 5 positions, with a total position value of approximately $126.8 million and cumulative realized profits of about $4.39 million.
This address currently holds a total of 5 positions, with a total position value of approximately $126.8 million and cumulative realized profits of about $4.39 million.
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BlockBeats messages. July 7, according to monitoring by ai_9684xtpa, address 0x907…CC0a9 deposited 1,988 ETH to Bybit about 4 hours ago, worth approximately $3.53 million. This address previously entered a position on January 20 this year at an average price of $3,178.78 for 6,000 ETH. If it sells all after this deposit, it would incur a loss of about $2.785 million. Based on the current deposit price of approximately $1,777.49, its holdings have shrunk by about 44% over the past 5-plus months.
BlockBeats messages. July 7, according to monitoring by ai_9684xtpa, address 0x907…CC0a9 deposited 1,988 ETH to Bybit about 4 hours ago, worth approximately $3.53 million. This address previously entered a position on January 20 this year at an average price of $3,178.78 for 6,000 ETH. If it sells all after this deposit, it would incur a loss of about $2.785 million. Based on the current deposit price of approximately $1,777.49, its holdings have shrunk by about 44% over the past 5-plus months.
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Yen shorts at near 20-year highs—will they keep falling?TL;DR
· As USD/JPY nears 162, leveraged funds’ yen net shorts as of June 30 are approaching 138,000 contracts.
· Intervening can amplify short-term market fluctuations, but whether the trend reverses still depends on the interest-rate path of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve.
· Related instruments: USD/JPY, yen crosses, Nikkei 225, Asian currencies, and US Treasury yields.
As the yen against the US dollar moves close to 162, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has once again signaled that authorities will respond to exchange-rate volatility if necessary. Meanwhile, as of June 30, yen net shorts among leveraged traders under the CFTC definition are approaching 138,000 contracts, the highest level since 2007.
Yen shorts at near 20-year highs—will they keep falling?
TL;DR
· As USD/JPY nears 162, leveraged funds’ yen net shorts as of June 30 are approaching 138,000 contracts.
· Intervening can amplify short-term market fluctuations, but whether the trend reverses still depends on the interest-rate path of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve.
· Related instruments: USD/JPY, yen crosses, Nikkei 225, Asian currencies, and US Treasury yields.
As the yen against the US dollar moves close to 162, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has once again signaled that authorities will respond to exchange-rate volatility if necessary. Meanwhile, as of June 30, yen net shorts among leveraged traders under the CFTC definition are approaching 138,000 contracts, the highest level since 2007.
· As USD/JPY nears 162, leveraged funds’ yen net shorts as of June 30 are approaching 138,000 contracts.
· Intervening can amplify short-term market fluctuations, but whether the trend reverses still depends on the interest-rate path of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve.
· Related instruments: USD/JPY, yen crosses, Nikkei 225, Asian currencies, and US Treasury yields.
As the yen against the US dollar moves close to 162, Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki has once again signaled that authorities will respond to exchange-rate volatility if necessary. Meanwhile, as of June 30, yen net shorts among leveraged traders under the CFTC definition are approaching 138,000 contracts, the highest level since 2007.
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Bitunix analyst: The Fed downplays policy guidance; “uncertainty premium” becomes the main front rather than the interest-rate pathBlockBeats message. On July 7, the global market’s focus is gradually shifting from the direction of interest rates toward policy communication. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that forward guidance should not be treated as a fixed framework; if necessary, it can even be completely removed. He also reiterated that central banks will not deliberately keep interest rates low to accommodate government budget deficits. This means that in the future, markets will rely more on real-time economic data rather than an interest-rate path provided in advance by the central bank. As a result, policy predictability declines, and asset prices’ sensitivity to inflation, employment, and economic data will continue to rise. Market volatility may once again become concentrated around the release of major data.
Bitunix analyst: The Fed downplays policy guidance; “uncertainty premium” becomes the main front rather than the interest-rate path
BlockBeats message. On July 7, the global market’s focus is gradually shifting from the direction of interest rates toward policy communication. Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that forward guidance should not be treated as a fixed framework; if necessary, it can even be completely removed. He also reiterated that central banks will not deliberately keep interest rates low to accommodate government budget deficits. This means that in the future, markets will rely more on real-time economic data rather than an interest-rate path provided in advance by the central bank. As a result, policy predictability declines, and asset prices’ sensitivity to inflation, employment, and economic data will continue to rise. Market volatility may once again become concentrated around the release of major data.
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Buy U.S. stocks when a child is born—who truly benefits?TL;DR
· Trump Accounts have started accepting contributions. Eligible newborns can receive a one-time $1,000 government seed grant, but they must complete the IRS process.
· The account connects children’s savings, employer matching, retail brokerages, and low-cost index funds; the results depend on real account opening and ongoing contributions.
· Related assets: broad-based U.S. stock ETFs, Robinhood, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Vanguard, and U.S. retail investment platforms.
The U.S. officially launched Trump Accounts on July 4, aiming to give a group of children born from 2025 to 2028 long-term investment accounts from birth.
Buy U.S. stocks when a child is born—who truly benefits?
TL;DR
· Trump Accounts have started accepting contributions. Eligible newborns can receive a one-time $1,000 government seed grant, but they must complete the IRS process.
· The account connects children’s savings, employer matching, retail brokerages, and low-cost index funds; the results depend on real account opening and ongoing contributions.
· Related assets: broad-based U.S. stock ETFs, Robinhood, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Vanguard, and U.S. retail investment platforms.
The U.S. officially launched Trump Accounts on July 4, aiming to give a group of children born from 2025 to 2028 long-term investment accounts from birth.
· Trump Accounts have started accepting contributions. Eligible newborns can receive a one-time $1,000 government seed grant, but they must complete the IRS process.
· The account connects children’s savings, employer matching, retail brokerages, and low-cost index funds; the results depend on real account opening and ongoing contributions.
· Related assets: broad-based U.S. stock ETFs, Robinhood, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Vanguard, and U.S. retail investment platforms.
The U.S. officially launched Trump Accounts on July 4, aiming to give a group of children born from 2025 to 2028 long-term investment accounts from birth.
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Korean stock market turns into an “Squid Game”: Samsung and SK Hynix prop up the market, while foreign investors withdrawTL;DR
· According to WSJ’s figures, the KOSPI gained about 165% over the past year, but in the first half of 2026 foreign investors net-sold KOSPI stocks worth roughly $100 billion.
· Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have driven index gains and losses; single-stock leveraged products further transmit chip-sector volatility to retail investors.
· Korean regulators have already warned about the risks of excessive leverage. The market may not reverse immediately, but pullback losses are more likely to be borne by local investors.
According to a July 6 article in WSJ Markets A.M., South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI has risen about 165% cumulatively over the past year, making it one of the most eye-catching major indexes globally. On the other hand, foreign investors have been retreating at elevated levels. Data cited by the Korea Exchange shows that in the first half of 2026, foreign investors net-sold KOSPI stocks by about 148 trillion to 150 trillion won—roughly $95 billion to $100 billion. Staying on the trading floor to chase the rally are increasingly local retail investors, as well as investors who amplify gains by using single-stock leveraged products.
Korean stock market turns into an “Squid Game”: Samsung and SK Hynix prop up the market, while foreign investors withdraw
TL;DR
· According to WSJ’s figures, the KOSPI gained about 165% over the past year, but in the first half of 2026 foreign investors net-sold KOSPI stocks worth roughly $100 billion.
· Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have driven index gains and losses; single-stock leveraged products further transmit chip-sector volatility to retail investors.
· Korean regulators have already warned about the risks of excessive leverage. The market may not reverse immediately, but pullback losses are more likely to be borne by local investors.
According to a July 6 article in WSJ Markets A.M., South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI has risen about 165% cumulatively over the past year, making it one of the most eye-catching major indexes globally. On the other hand, foreign investors have been retreating at elevated levels. Data cited by the Korea Exchange shows that in the first half of 2026, foreign investors net-sold KOSPI stocks by about 148 trillion to 150 trillion won—roughly $95 billion to $100 billion. Staying on the trading floor to chase the rally are increasingly local retail investors, as well as investors who amplify gains by using single-stock leveraged products.
· According to WSJ’s figures, the KOSPI gained about 165% over the past year, but in the first half of 2026 foreign investors net-sold KOSPI stocks worth roughly $100 billion.
· Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have driven index gains and losses; single-stock leveraged products further transmit chip-sector volatility to retail investors.
· Korean regulators have already warned about the risks of excessive leverage. The market may not reverse immediately, but pullback losses are more likely to be borne by local investors.
According to a July 6 article in WSJ Markets A.M., South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI has risen about 165% cumulatively over the past year, making it one of the most eye-catching major indexes globally. On the other hand, foreign investors have been retreating at elevated levels. Data cited by the Korea Exchange shows that in the first half of 2026, foreign investors net-sold KOSPI stocks by about 148 trillion to 150 trillion won—roughly $95 billion to $100 billion. Staying on the trading floor to chase the rally are increasingly local retail investors, as well as investors who amplify gains by using single-stock leveraged products.
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Binance to list 10 bStocks trading pairs including CBRSBBlockBeats message. On July 7, according to official information, Binance will list bStocks tokenized securities today at 21:30: Cerebras (CBRSB), Coinbase (COINB), Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAMB), Corning (GLWB), Alphabet (GOOGLB), Nebius (NBISB), Qualcomm (QCOMB), Semicon Bull 3X ETF (SOXLB), State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPYB), and Western Digital (WDCB) trading pairs.
Binance to list 10 bStocks trading pairs including CBRSB
BlockBeats message. On July 7, according to official information, Binance will list bStocks tokenized securities today at 21:30: Cerebras (CBRSB), Coinbase (COINB), Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAMB), Corning (GLWB), Alphabet (GOOGLB), Nebius (NBISB), Qualcomm (QCOMB), Semicon Bull 3X ETF (SOXLB), State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPYB), and Western Digital (WDCB) trading pairs.
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Morgan Stanley’s take: raises memory price forecasts, but near-term momentum may weakenTL;DR
· Morgan Stanley raises its 3Q26 multi-class memory price forecasts, while warning that near-term momentum in memory stocks may weaken.
· Under this report’s definition, the expected increase in PC DRAM prices rises to 15–20%, with the breadth of DRAM profit estimate revisions approaching 89%.
· Samsung and SK hynix are still supported by AI demand, but earnings guidance, LTA, and comments on capital expenditures will affect whether the upward trend can continue.
In a research report dated July 7, Morgan Stanley significantly raised its memory price forecast for the third quarter, but also cautioned that memory stocks may face downside pressure in the short term.
This is not a bearish call on the memory cycle. The report maintains its view of “attractiveness” for the South Korean tech sector, continues to like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, and expects in its model that their companies’ 2027 earnings growth will exceed 35–40%. The real caveat is that memory prices, profit expectations, and investor positioning have all already moved to elevated levels—so in the short term, the stock price may not keep rising at the same pace as over the past few months.
Morgan Stanley’s take: raises memory price forecasts, but near-term momentum may weaken
TL;DR
· Morgan Stanley raises its 3Q26 multi-class memory price forecasts, while warning that near-term momentum in memory stocks may weaken.
· Under this report’s definition, the expected increase in PC DRAM prices rises to 15–20%, with the breadth of DRAM profit estimate revisions approaching 89%.
· Samsung and SK hynix are still supported by AI demand, but earnings guidance, LTA, and comments on capital expenditures will affect whether the upward trend can continue.
In a research report dated July 7, Morgan Stanley significantly raised its memory price forecast for the third quarter, but also cautioned that memory stocks may face downside pressure in the short term.
This is not a bearish call on the memory cycle. The report maintains its view of “attractiveness” for the South Korean tech sector, continues to like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, and expects in its model that their companies’ 2027 earnings growth will exceed 35–40%. The real caveat is that memory prices, profit expectations, and investor positioning have all already moved to elevated levels—so in the short term, the stock price may not keep rising at the same pace as over the past few months.
· Morgan Stanley raises its 3Q26 multi-class memory price forecasts, while warning that near-term momentum in memory stocks may weaken.
· Under this report’s definition, the expected increase in PC DRAM prices rises to 15–20%, with the breadth of DRAM profit estimate revisions approaching 89%.
· Samsung and SK hynix are still supported by AI demand, but earnings guidance, LTA, and comments on capital expenditures will affect whether the upward trend can continue.
In a research report dated July 7, Morgan Stanley significantly raised its memory price forecast for the third quarter, but also cautioned that memory stocks may face downside pressure in the short term.
This is not a bearish call on the memory cycle. The report maintains its view of “attractiveness” for the South Korean tech sector, continues to like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, and expects in its model that their companies’ 2027 earnings growth will exceed 35–40%. The real caveat is that memory prices, profit expectations, and investor positioning have all already moved to elevated levels—so in the short term, the stock price may not keep rising at the same pace as over the past few months.
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Bernstein: Maintains $150,000 Year-End Bitcoin Target Price, This Pullback Still Weaker Than Prior CyclesBlockBeats message, on July 7: despite Bitcoin’s price having fallen about 54% from the high point of nearly $125,000 it reached in October 2025, Bernstein still maintains its year-end target price of $150,000. Bernstein believes that the pullback in this cycle is clearly smaller than the typical 75% to 90% declines seen at the end of past historical cycles, indicating that the market structure has changed to some extent.
Against the backdrop of the current market’s low sentiment, the clear target prices provided by Wall Street can serve as a price anchor for the market, while the historical drawdown framework can help traders assess risk. If this cycle’s pattern matches historical trends, the market may still fall further, but institutional views on the subsequent recovery are worth paying attention to.
Bernstein: Maintains $150,000 Year-End Bitcoin Target Price, This Pullback Still Weaker Than Prior Cycles
BlockBeats message, on July 7: despite Bitcoin’s price having fallen about 54% from the high point of nearly $125,000 it reached in October 2025, Bernstein still maintains its year-end target price of $150,000. Bernstein believes that the pullback in this cycle is clearly smaller than the typical 75% to 90% declines seen at the end of past historical cycles, indicating that the market structure has changed to some extent.
Against the backdrop of the current market’s low sentiment, the clear target prices provided by Wall Street can serve as a price anchor for the market, while the historical drawdown framework can help traders assess risk. If this cycle’s pattern matches historical trends, the market may still fall further, but institutional views on the subsequent recovery are worth paying attention to.
Against the backdrop of the current market’s low sentiment, the clear target prices provided by Wall Street can serve as a price anchor for the market, while the historical drawdown framework can help traders assess risk. If this cycle’s pattern matches historical trends, the market may still fall further, but institutional views on the subsequent recovery are worth paying attention to.
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USDT Will Return to the Bitcoin Network, and UTEXO Will Natively Issue Bitcoin-Style USDT via the RGB ProtocolBlockBeats message, July 7: Tether is preparing to natively issue USDT on the Bitcoin network based on the RGB v0.11.1 protocol, with UTEXO handling commercial issuance and distribution. This will mark the return of USDT to Bitcoin’s main chain after many years, following its first arrival on Bitcoin in 2014 via the Omni protocol. UTEXO co-founder Viktor Ihnatiuk said the company has received support from Tether and will work to bring native Bitcoin-based USDT to market.
The RGB protocol uses client-side validation (Client-side Validation) and combines with the Lightning Network, enabling instant, low-cost, and private USDT transactions while inheriting Bitcoin’s UTXO security model. In the future, users will be able to hold USDT directly through native Bitcoin addresses and use Lightning Network wallets that support RGB to send and receive, without relying on other public chains or intermediary service providers.
USDT Will Return to the Bitcoin Network, and UTEXO Will Natively Issue Bitcoin-Style USDT via the RGB Protocol
BlockBeats message, July 7: Tether is preparing to natively issue USDT on the Bitcoin network based on the RGB v0.11.1 protocol, with UTEXO handling commercial issuance and distribution. This will mark the return of USDT to Bitcoin’s main chain after many years, following its first arrival on Bitcoin in 2014 via the Omni protocol. UTEXO co-founder Viktor Ihnatiuk said the company has received support from Tether and will work to bring native Bitcoin-based USDT to market.
The RGB protocol uses client-side validation (Client-side Validation) and combines with the Lightning Network, enabling instant, low-cost, and private USDT transactions while inheriting Bitcoin’s UTXO security model. In the future, users will be able to hold USDT directly through native Bitcoin addresses and use Lightning Network wallets that support RGB to send and receive, without relying on other public chains or intermediary service providers.
The RGB protocol uses client-side validation (Client-side Validation) and combines with the Lightning Network, enabling instant, low-cost, and private USDT transactions while inheriting Bitcoin’s UTXO security model. In the future, users will be able to hold USDT directly through native Bitcoin addresses and use Lightning Network wallets that support RGB to send and receive, without relying on other public chains or intermediary service providers.
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BlockBeats message, July 7, according to Lookonchain monitoring, a certain whale opened a short position of 3,753.56 shares of SNDK on the Aster DEX, with a position value of about $6.27 million, using 10x leverage. Currently, the position is up by approximately $116,000, with a return rate of 18.53%.
BlockBeats message, July 7, according to Lookonchain monitoring, a certain whale opened a short position of 3,753.56 shares of SNDK on the Aster DEX, with a position value of about $6.27 million, using 10x leverage. Currently, the position is up by approximately $116,000, with a return rate of 18.53%.
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BlockBeats messages, July 7: According to HTX market data, affected by news of the上线 Bithumb Korean won market, ICNT saw a short-term surge of 10.77%, and is currently trading at $0.1977.
BlockBeats messages, July 7: According to HTX market data, affected by news of the上线 Bithumb Korean won market, ICNT saw a short-term surge of 10.77%, and is currently trading at $0.1977.
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