BeInCrypto Global

Coinbase, the largest US-based crypto exchange, is backing a Federal Reserve proposal to grant non-bank financial institutions access to specialized payment accounts.

The San Francisco-based exchange submitted a letter to the U.S. central bank advocating for special-purpose Reserve Bank payment accounts. It argued that these accounts are vital for modernizing the nation’s domestic financial infrastructure.

Coinbase Challenges Fed Over ‘Restrictive’ Terms for Payment Rails

Coinbase argues the proposal would grant fintech and crypto-native firms direct access to the Federal Reserve’s payment rails.

This change would allow these entities to utilize the global economy’s core “plumbing” without the need for a full commercial banking charter.

Currently, most crypto firms must rely on intermediary banks to settle dollar transactions. This process adds cost, latency, and counterparty risk to these services.

“By reducing reliance upon FDIC-insured partner banks as intermediaries for core payment functions, the Payment Account would allow account-holding institutions to offer safe and efficient services to U.S. consumers and businesses and, at the same time, reduce costs and ensure the ability of emerging payment providers to scale with growing demand,” the exchange remarked.

Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase’s chief policy officer, also noted that similar access is already available in the United Kingdom, the European Union, Brazil, and India.

Shirzad argued that these jurisdictions have seen accelerated competition and reduced settlement risks, helping their financial sectors remain globally competitive.

However, the crypto giant warns that the current framework risks being “dead on arrival” due to overly restrictive limits.

Coinbase argues that the Federal Reserve’s current proposal contains “unnecessarily constraining” limitations. According to the firm, these restrictions could ultimately undermine the account’s utility for large-scale operations.

“Combining all of the proposed restrictions risks unnecessarily constraining the account in a way that could limit its adoption by eligible institutions for the use intended,” the exchange stated.

Specifically, the exchange criticized the lack of interest paid on end-of-day balances and the imposition of low overnight balance limits.

Coinbase also urged regulators to reconsider the “flawed” logic regarding balance-sheet limits. It noted that risks in payment services are primarily operational rather than credit-related.

“The risks associated with payments processing are operational and not credit, market, or liquidity risks of the sort that generally require a capital cushion anchored to the size of a balance sheet. As such, a balance sheet metric is not fit for purpose,” the firm wrote.

Furthermore, the company advocated for the ability to hold “omnibus” customer balances. The Brian Armstrong-led exchange argued that such moves would enable firms to pool user funds to enable more efficient settlement.

By advocating for a “simplified framework” that ensures commercial viability, Coinbase is positioning itself as a systemic player seeking to move from the periphery of finance into its regulated core.

Social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, is set to integrate stock and cryptocurrency trading directly into user feeds.

This move marks a significant escalation in Elon Musk’s bid to transform the platform into a dominant player in financial technology.

X Confirms Crypto Trading Rollout via ‘Smart Cashtags’

On February 14, Nikita Bier, X’s head of product, said the new functionality will allow users to execute trades immediately after discovering an asset on their timeline.

The feature centers on “Smart Cashtags,” an evolution of the platform’s existing indexing system. Currently, users prefix ticker symbols with dollar signs—such as $BTC for Bitcoin—to create clickable links.

Under the new system, tapping these symbols will display live price charts and related posts, and offer direct trading options.

This development is the company’s latest move to reduce friction when switching between social media and brokerage applications. By bridging these functions, the update potentially accelerates how quickly retail investors can act on information

The integration is a cornerstone of Musk’s broader strategy to evolve X into an “everything app.” Notably, he has championed this concept since acquiring the company in 2022.

The vision mirrors the utility of Asian “super apps” that combine messaging, social networking, and payments.

Over the past years, X has ramped up efforts to build a financial ecosystem. The firm has laid the groundwork for peer-to-peer transfers, daily consumer payments, and now, active investing.

However, the intersection of social media hype and financial speculation poses moderation challenges.

Bier noted that while the company intends for cryptocurrency to proliferate on the platform, it remains cautious regarding user experience.

He warned that applications that create incentives for spam, raiding, or harassment will not be supported. According to him, such behavior “meaningfully degrades the experience for millions of people.”

So, as X transitions from a town square to a trading floor, the company faces the dual challenge of competing with established brokerage firms while navigating the regulatory complexities inherent in facilitating financial transactions for a global user base.

The Ethereum Foundation appointed Bastian Aue as interim co-Executive Director on February 13. The organization positioned the move as a strategic pivot toward institutional longevity and “cypherpunk” values.

Aue replaces Tomasz Stańczak, who steps down after nearly a year in the role. He would be leading the Foundation alongside Hsiao-Wei.

ETH Reclaims $2,000 as Foundation Outlines New Strategic Mandate

The transition comes as the non-profit steward of the Ethereum blockchain seeks to balance operational efficiency with a mandate to ensure the network’s survival for “1,000 years or more.”

Aue, who previously worked with the executive team on grants and operations, brings deep institutional knowledge to the role.

In a statement, he emphasized a return to the network’s ideological core and pledged to prioritize “real permissionless infrastructure.”

“The mandate of the EF is to make sure that real permissionless infrastructure, cypherpunk at its core, is what gets built. Ethereum should outlast us, and it has been our job from the beginning to make sure it is robust enough to do so,” Aue said.

This rhetoric suggests a strategic reprioritization for the blockchain network. The goal is to ensure the protocol is robust enough to survive centuries of geopolitical and technological shifts, rather than reacting to short-term industry trends.

Notably, Stańczak’s tenure marked the beginning of a critical restructuring phase of the blockchain network’s leadership.

He was appointed approximately 12 months ago, during a period when the Foundation faced mounting industry criticism for perceived laxity and bureaucratic inertia.

Under him, the Foundation shifted gears as he injected a sense of urgency into the organization. Stańczak helped to streamline internal teams and expand the EF’s engagement with the broader developer ecosystem.

The Foundation noted his guidance was instrumental in “maturing” the organization’s operations during a volatile market cycle.

“In his year at the EF, Tomasz helped to greatly increase the efficiency of many parts of the foundation, and turn the EF into an organization that is much more responsive to the world outside. He brought fresh new energy to the organization, and as a result of his encouragement and support, the Ethereum Foundation is regularly doing things well outside its previous comfort zone,” Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum co-founder, said.

With the organizational ship steadied, the appointment of Aue signals a shift in focus from operational triage to existential durability.

Meanwhile, the leadership continuity plan was announced amid broader market volatility.

Ethereum traded roughly 5.5% higher over the past 24 hours, reclaiming the $2,000 level to trade near $2,051 as of press time.

This price appreciation contrasts with the broader market’s poor performance since the beginning of the year.

ETH remains down approximately 36% over the last quarter, highlighting the turbulent environment Aue inherits as he attempts to steer the Foundation toward its millennial vision.

According to local reports, Russia’s central bank is re-examining its long-standing opposition to stablecoins. First Deputy Chairman Vladimir Chistyukhin said the Bank of Russia will conduct a study this year on the feasibility of creating a Russian stablecoin. 

Previously, Russia had consistently opposed plans for a centralized stablecoin. However, Chistyukhin said foreign practice now warrants a renewed assessment of risks and prospects.

Moscow Reopens the Stablecoin Debate

The shift signals a strategic rethink rather than an immediate policy change. Still, the timing is notable.

Over the past year, the United States passed the GENIUS Act, establishing a federal framework for payment stablecoins. 

The law formalized 1:1 dollar backing and reserve transparency requirements. 

As a result, US-backed stablecoins have gained institutional legitimacy and expanded their footprint in cross-border payments and digital asset settlement.

At the same time, the European Union has accelerated work on a digital euro and MiCA-compliant euro stablecoins led by major banks. 

European policymakers have framed these efforts as necessary to preserve monetary sovereignty and reduce dependence on foreign digital currencies.

Against that backdrop, Russia risks falling behind in the race to shape digital monetary infrastructure. Stablecoins now function as core liquidity rails in global crypto markets and, increasingly, in trade settlement. 

If dollar and euro-backed tokens dominate cross-border flows, Russian entities could face deeper reliance on foreign-regulated instruments.

Sanctions Pressure and the Sovereignty Question

Moreover, sanctions and restrictions on Russia’s access to traditional payment networks add urgency. 

A domestically controlled stablecoin could, in theory, provide an alternative settlement mechanism for international partners willing to transact outside Western systems. 

Even exploring the concept signals that Moscow recognizes the geopolitical dimension of stablecoin infrastructure.

However, risks remain substantial. A Russian stablecoin would require credible reserves, legal clarity, and trust from counterparties. Without transparency and liquidity, adoption would be limited.

For now, the Bank of Russia is studying the issue, not endorsing it.

The US Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs are seeing sustained outflows as investors rotate capital into international equities. Both crypto ETFs have seen only 2 weeks of positive inflows so far in 2026.

The shift comes amid rising Treasury yields, a resilient US labor market, and record inflows into global ex-US stock funds.

Money is Shifting to International ETF Markets

Over the past several weeks, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have moved into clear net outflow territory. Total assets have dropped sharply from recent highs near $115 billion to roughly $83 billion. 

Ethereum ETFs show an even steeper contraction, with assets declining from around $18 billion to near $11 billion.

This is not random volatility. It reflects capital leaving the asset class.

US Bitcoin ETFs Weekly Inflow In 2026. Source: SoSoValue

At the same time, international equity ETFs recorded their strongest inflows in years. 

January saw record allocations into global ex-US funds, which absorbed roughly one-third of total ETF inflows despite representing a much smaller share of total assets.

That signals major rotation.

Institutional investors appear to be trimming exposure to crowded US growth trades — including crypto — and reallocating to cheaper overseas markets amid improving macro conditions abroad.

Meanwhile, stronger US jobs data pushed Treasury yields higher. Higher yields tighten financial conditions and increase the attractiveness of bonds relative to risk assets. 

Bitcoin and Ethereum, which trade as high-beta liquidity plays, tend to weaken when capital moves toward safer or yield-generating assets.

The combination creates a structural headwind.

International ETF Market Net Flow Over the Past Year. Source: ETF Trends

Crypto ETFs were a major source of demand in 2024, amplifying upward price moves through sustained inflows. 

Now that mechanism is reversing. Instead of reinforcing rallies, ETFs are acting as distribution channels.

This does not invalidate the long-term crypto thesis. However, it weakens the short-term liquidity backdrop.

Until capital rotation slows or macro conditions ease, ETF outflows may continue to weigh on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market.

Armed men attempted to break into the home of Binance France President David Prinçay on Thursday morning, marking the latest in a growing wave of crypto-linked attacks across France.

According to French outlet RTL, three hooded individuals entered a residential building in the Val-de-Marne region around 7:00 a.m. on February 12. They were reportedly armed and searching for Prinçay’s apartment.

However, the attackers fled after discovering he was not at home.

Armed Commando Flees, Then Strikes Again

Local reports suggested the group first forced another resident to help them locate the correct apartment. Police said the suspects searched the Binance executive’s residence before leaving with two stolen phones.

Shortly afterward, at approximately 9:15 a.m., police in Hauts-de-Seine responded to another incident. A resident in Vaucresson reported being struck in the head with rifle butts by hooded men.

Authorities later linked the two events.

According to RTL, surveillance footage showed the suspects using the same vehicle seen earlier in Val-de-Marne. The stolen phones were also traced to the second location.

Witnesses reportedly overheard the attackers saying the address was incorrect before fleeing again.

Arrested at Lyon Perrache Station

French law enforcement launched a coordinated operation involving the Paris Brigade de Répression du Banditisme (BRB), police units from Hauts-de-Seine, Val-de-Marne, Yvelines, and transport police.

Investigators tracked the suspects via public transportation.

The three men boarded a train to Lyon. Authorities alerted the Lyon BRI unit, which intercepted and arrested them at Lyon Perrache station later that day.

They are now in custody. The investigation remains ongoing.

Binance Co-Founder Yi He addressed the incident on X, confirming that the targeted executive and his family are safe.

Is France Becoming a Haven for Crypto Crime?

The attempted attack comes amid a surge in crypto-related kidnappings and home invasions across France.

In May 2025, French police arrested more than 20 suspects linked to a series of kidnappings in the greater Paris area and surrounding regions, where criminals targeted affluent crypto investors.

Throughout 2025, French law enforcement continued to dismantle cells linked to crypto-focused extortion. 

Investigations revealed that attackers frequently used private information obtained from dark-web leaks or social-network scraping to profile potential targets.

Methods ranged from staged home invasions — often in the early morning — to coordinated abductions and forced movements between locations to evade detection.

Binance has fired at least five members of its compliance investigations team after they internally flagged more than $1 billion in transactions allegedly tied to Iranian entities, according to Fortune. 

The transactions reportedly took place between March 2024 and August 2025. As reported, they were routed using Tether’s USDT stablecoin on the Tron blockchain.

USDT on Tron: A Familiar Pattern For Iran?

The firings allegedly began in late 2025. Several of the dismissed staff had law enforcement backgrounds and held senior investigative roles. 

Fortune reported that at least four additional senior compliance staff have also left or been pushed out in recent months.

The reported $1 billion in flows were denominated in USDT and moved across the Tron network. That combination has repeatedly appeared in recent sanctions enforcement actions involving Iran-linked activity.

Earlier this month, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned two UK-registered crypto exchanges, Zedcex and Zedxion. It’s alleged that the exchanges processed nearly $1 billion in transactions tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

According to OFAC and blockchain analytics reporting cited by TRM Labs and Chainalysis, much of that activity also involved USDT on Tron.

Separately, BeinCrypto reported in January that Iran’s central bank accumulated more than $500 million in USDT amid pressure on the Iranian rial. Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic said the purchases likely aimed to secure hard-currency liquidity outside the traditional banking system, effectively creating a parallel dollar reserve.

Taken together, these cases show how stablecoins—particularly USDT—have become central to Iran-linked cross-border financial flows.

How Iran’s Central Bank Received USDT Periodically Througout 2025. Source: Elliptic

Binance has not publicly confirmed that the alleged Iran-linked transactions violated sanctions laws, nor has any regulator announced new enforcement action against the company related to this reporting. 

However, the episode unfolds amid broader scrutiny of stablecoin infrastructure and the role of exchanges in geopolitical sanctions regimes.

Aave Labs has unveiled a fresh governance initiative that could redefine the future direction of one of the crypto sector’s leading lending protocols.

While on paper the developments appear to be a sound initiative, the AAVE price has failed to reflect due to investors’ behavior.

AAVE Launches New Governance Model

Dubbed “Aave Will Win,” the proposal calls on the Aave DAO to endorse a comprehensive roadmap centered on the forthcoming V4 upgrade. If approved, V4 would serve as the core infrastructure for the protocol’s next phase, establishing a framework where 100% of revenues from products developed by Aave Labs are allocated directly to the DAO.

AAVE price remains under pressure despite the rollout of its new governance model. The token is currently in oversold territory based on the Money Flow Index. Recent readings suggest macro-driven selling pressure may have peaked after several sessions of sustained outflows.

Historically, the AAVE price has rebounded after entering oversold conditions. Oversold signals often reflect selling saturation, where buyers gradually step in. However, broader crypto market weakness and cautious investor sentiment make this setup less straightforward than previous recovery cycles.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

AAVE MFI. Source: TradingView AAVE Holders Are Still Selling

Exchange net position change data shows that selling pressure continues to dominate. Net inflows to exchanges indicate that holders are moving AAVE to trading platforms. This behavior typically signals an intention to sell rather than accumulate.

Strengthening outflows and persistent exchange inflows may delay any potential rebound. Even positive protocol developments have failed to spark immediate upside momentum. Market participants appear focused on liquidity conditions and risk appetite rather than governance upgrades.

AAVE Exchange Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode AAVE Price Is Holding Above Support

AAVE price trades at $111 at publication, holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $109. This level is widely viewed as a bear market support floor. Maintaining this support is critical to prevent deeper structural weakness.

Mixed technical signals suggest AAVE may consolidate above $109 in the near term. Price could remain range-bound under the $119 resistance while momentum stabilizes. However, a confirmed break below $109 may expose AAVE to $100 or lower.

AAVE Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If selling pressure eases and investors regain confidence, AAVE could rebound from $109. A move above $119 would signal improving sentiment. Breaching $128 may open the path toward $136, invalidating the prevailing bearish outlook.

Altcoins are showing sharply mixed signals this week, with explosive rallies colliding against deepening corrections across the market. While some tokens are capturing attention with a powerful breakout setup, others continue to struggle near fresh lows.

Thus, BeInCrypto has analysed three such altcoins which investors should keep an eye on over the weekend.

Pippin (PIPPIN)

PIPPIN ranks among the best-performing altcoins this week, surging 203% over seven days. The meme coin trades at $0.492 at publication, remaining below the $0.514 resistance level. Strong momentum has fueled speculative interest as traders monitor continuation signals.

Technically, PIPPIN is breaking out of a descending broadening wedge, a pattern projecting a 221% rally. A confirmed breakout requires flipping $0.600 into support. While the projected upside is significant, the practical target remains clearing the $0.720 all-time high.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

PIPPIN Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If bullish momentum fades or macro conditions weaken, downside risk increases. A drop below $0.449 support could send PIPPIN toward $0.372. Such a move would invalidate the bullish thesis and negate the wedge breakout structure.

Aptos (APT)

APT price has declined 12.6% over the past week, forming two new all-time lows during this period. The altcoin trades at $0.899 at publication, remaining below the $1.00 psychological level. Persistent weakness reflects continued bearish momentum across the broader crypto market.

The Money Flow Index currently sits below the 20.0 threshold, placing APT in the oversold zone. Such readings often signal selling saturation and potential accumulation. If the MFI rises above 20.0 and buying pressure strengthens, reclaiming $1.029 could confirm recovery momentum.

APT Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If bearish momentum persists, downside risk remains elevated. Continued selling pressure may push APT below current levels. A break lower could result in another all-time low near $0.800, reinforcing the prevailing negative trend.

Kite (KITE)

KITE is another altcoin to watch this weekend as it has emerged as a strong contrast to weaker altcoins, consistently forming new all-time highs this week. The token trades at $0.197 at publication, marking a 53% weekly gain. Sustained upside momentum reflects strong investor demand and improving crypto market sentiment.

KITE reached a fresh all-time high of $0.210 today, reinforcing bullish technical structure. Persistent capital inflows appear to be driving the rally. If buying pressure continues, the price could extend toward $0.231, supported by strong volume and positive short-term momentum.

KITE Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, overbought conditions could trigger profit-taking. If buying interest begins to fade, KITE may retrace toward the $0.163 support level. A decline to that zone would invalidate the bullish thesis and signal weakening upside momentum.

A US-based structured-credit firm is pushing TradFi boundaries by integrating crypto into real-world lending. Newmarket Capital, managing nearly $3 billion in assets, is pioneering hybrid mortgage and commercial loans that leverage Bitcoin (BTC) alongside conventional real estate as collateral.

Its affiliate, Battery Finance, is leading the charge in creating financial structures that leverage digital assets to support credit without requiring borrowers to liquidate holdings.

Bitcoin to Reshape Mortgages and Real-World Lending

The initiative targets borrowers who are crypto-asset holders, including tech-savvy Millennials and Gen Z. It provides a path to financing that preserves investment upside while enabling access to traditional credit markets.

By combining income-producing real estate with Bitcoin, the firm seeks to mitigate volatility risk while offering borrowers a novel lending solution.

According to Andrew Hohns, Founder and CEO of Newmarket Capital and Battery Finance, the model involves income-producing properties, such as commercial real estate, paired with a portion of the borrower’s Bitcoin holdings as supplemental collateral.

Bitcoin is valued as part of the overall loan package, providing lenders with an asset that is liquid, divisible, and transparent, unlike real estate alone.

“We’re creating credit structures that produce income, but by integrating measured amounts of Bitcoin, these loans participate in appreciation over time, offering benefits traditional models don’t provide,” Hohns explained in a session on the Coin Stories Podcast.

Early deals demonstrate the concept, with Battery Finance refinancing a $12.5 million multifamily property using both the building itself and approximately 20 BTC as part of a hybrid collateral package.

Borrowers gain access to capital without triggering taxable events from selling crypto, while lenders gain additional downside protection.

Institutional-Grade Bitcoin Collateral

Unlike pure Bitcoin-backed loans, which remain experimental and niche, Newmarket’s model is institutional-grade:

It is fully underwritten

Income-focused, and

Legally structured for US regulatory compliance.

Bitcoin in these structures is treated as a collateral complement rather than a standalone payment method; mortgage and loan repayments remain in USD.

“Bitcoin adds flexibility and transparency to traditional lending, but the foundation is still income-producing assets,” Hohns said. “It’s a bridge between digital scarcity and conventional credit risk frameworks.”

The approach builds on a broader trend of integrating real-world assets (RWA) with digital holdings. In June 2025, federal agencies like the FHFA signaled in mid-2025 that crypto could be considered for mortgage qualification,

However, private lenders like Newmarket Capital are moving faster, operationalizing hybrid collateral structures while adhering to existing regulatory frameworks.

Newmarket and Battery Finance’s work illustrates how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can interface with TradFi as tools to unlock new forms of lending and credit.

Still, challenges exist. BeInCrypto reported that despite Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s plans to accept Bitcoin as mortgage collateral, there is a catch.

The Bitcoin must be held on regulated exchanges. Bitcoin in self-custody or private wallets won’t be recognized.

This raises concerns about financial sovereignty and centralized control. Policy limits Bitcoin’s use in mortgage lending to custodial, state-visible platforms, excluding decentralized storage.

“This isn’t about adoption vs. resistance. It’s about adoption with conditions. You can play— …but only if your Bitcoin plays by their rules. Rules designed for control…As adoption deepens, pressure will mount for lenders to recognize properly held Bitcoin—not just coins on an exchange…Eventually, the most secure form of money will unlock the most flexible capital,” one user remarked.

Nevertheless, while this innovation is not a solution to housing affordability, it represents a meaningful step toward mainstream adoption of crypto in real-world finance.

XRP price has struggled to recover in recent days, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the 2021-2022 bear market.

While weakness persists, a recent development involving Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse could shift sentiment.

XRP May Not Imitate The Past

Brad Garlinghouse has joined the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Innovation Advisory Committee. This appointment marks a significant milestone for Ripple and the broader XRP ecosystem. The same regulatory environment that challenged Ripple for nearly five years is now seeking industry input.

For XRP supporters, this signals growing regulatory normalization. Engagement with the CFTC may enhance Ripple’s credibility in US policy discussions. Constructive dialogue could ease uncertainty and reduce the long-term legal overhang that previously weighed on the XRP price.

Recently realized profit-and-loss data show a spike in sales. Some observers compare this activity to early signals seen before the 2022 bear market. However, in 2022, sustained distribution lasted nearly four months. Current selling lacks that duration and intensity, reducing the probability of a prolonged downturn for XRP.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

XRP Realized Profit/Loss. Source: Glassnode Selling Exists, But It’s Not a Concern

Exchange balance data suggests selling pressure remains measured. Roughly 100 million XRP moved to exchanges over the past 10 days, valued at $130 million. While notable, the scale does not indicate widespread panic.

In November 2025, 130 million XRP was sold within 72 hours. That episode reflected sharper urgency among holders. Compared to that event, current flows appear controlled and less aggressive.

XRP Exchange Balance. Source: Glassnode

Moderate selling combined with positive regulatory developments could stabilize sentiment. If distribution does not accelerate, XRP may absorb supply without severe downside extension. Market participants are watching closely for confirmation through on-chain metrics.

XRP Has Room To Recover

The liquidation heatmap shows limited immediate obstacles to recovery. XRP faces its next major resistance between $1.78 and $1.80. This zone represents a potential profit-taking area rather than an immediate structural ceiling.

Absence of dense liquidation clusters below current levels reduces short-term risk of cascading sell-offs. If momentum improves, XRP has room to advance before encountering significant overhead supply. That technical flexibility supports a cautiously constructive outlook.

XRP CBD Heatmap. Source: Glassnode XRP Price Needs To Bounce Back

XRP trades at $1.35 and is slipping below the $1.36 support level. The next key support lies near $1.27, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Despite recent weakness, broader factors suggest a balanced risk profile.

Garlinghouse’s CFTC appointment may improve investor confidence. If XRP reclaims $1.51, a recovery rally could unfold. Sustained strength above that threshold may drive price toward the supply zone above $1.76.

XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, a breakdown below $1.27 would shift momentum decisively. Panic selling could intensify if support fails. A drop toward $1.11 would invalidate the bullish thesis and extend the current corrective phase.

Ethereum is trying to stabilize after weeks of heavy selling. The price is holding near the $1,950 zone, up around 6% from its recent low. At the same time, the biggest Ethereum whales have started accumulating aggressively.

But short-term sellers and derivatives traders remain cautious, creating a growing tug-of-war around the next move.

Biggest Ethereum Whales Accumulate as Bullish Divergence Stays Intact

On-chain data shows that the largest Ethereum holders are positioning for a rebound. Since February 9, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH have increased their holdings from around 5.17 million ETH to nearly 6.27 million ETH. That is an addition of more than 1.1 million ETH, worth roughly $2 billion at current prices.

Ethereum Whales: Santiment

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This accumulation aligns with a bullish technical signal on the 12-hour chart.

Between January 25 and February 12, Ethereum’s price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. When price falls, but RSI rises, it often signals weakening selling pressure.

This bullish divergence suggests downside momentum is fading.

Bullish Divergence: TradingView

The structure remains valid as long as Ethereum holds above $1,890, as the same signal flashed even on February 11 and still seems to be holding. A breakdown below this level would invalidate the divergence for now and weaken the rebound case.

For now, whales appear to be betting that this support will hold.

Short-Term Holders Are Selling?

While large investors are accumulating, short-term holders are behaving very differently.

The Spent Coins Age Band for the 7-day to 30-day cohort has surged sharply. Since February 9 (the same time when the whale pickup started), this metric has risen from around 14,000 to nearly 107,000, an increase of more than 660%. This indicator tracks how many recently acquired coins are being moved. Rising values usually signal possible profit-taking and distribution.

ETH Coins: Santiment

In simple terms, short-term traders are exiting positions. This pattern appeared earlier in February as well. On February 5, a spike in short-term coin activity occurred near $2,140. Within one day, Ethereum dropped by around 13%.

That history shows how aggressive selling from this group can quickly reverse moves. As long as short-term holders remain active sellers, upside moves are likely to face resistance.

Derivatives Data Shows Heavy Bearish Positioning

Derivatives markets are reinforcing this cautious outlook. Current liquidation data shows nearly $3.06 billion in short positions stacked against only about $755 million in long leverage. This creates a heavily bearish imbalance with almost 80% of the market betting on the short side.

Shorts Dominate: Coinglass

On one hand, this setup creates fuel for a potential short squeeze if prices rise. On the other hand, it shows that most traders still expect further weakness. This keeps momentum muted but keeps the bounce hope alive if the whale buying pushes the prices up, even a little bit, crossing past key clusters.

On-chain cost basis data helps explain why Ethereum struggles to break higher. Around $1,980, roughly 1.58% of the circulating supply, was acquired. Near $2,020, another 1.23% of supply sits at breakeven. These zones represent large groups of holders waiting to exit without losses.

Cost Basis Cluster: Glassnode

When price approaches these levels, selling pressure increases as investors try to recover capital. This has repeatedly capped recent bounces. Only a strong leverage-driven move or short squeeze would likely be powerful enough to push through these supply clusters.

Until then, these zones remain major barriers.

Key Ethereum Price Levels To Track Now

With whales buying and sellers resisting, Ethereum price levels now matter more than narratives.

On the upside, the first major resistance sits near $2,010. A clean 12-hour close above this level would increase the probability of short liquidations. And it sits near the key supply cluster.

If that happens, Ethereum could target $2,140 next, a strong resistance zone with multiple touchpoints. It also sits around 10% from the current levels. On the downside, $1,890 remains the critical support. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish divergence and signal renewed downside pressure. Below that, the next major support sits near $1,740.

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

As long as Ethereum holds above $1,890 and continues testing $2,010, the rebound structure remains intact. A sustained breakdown below support would cancel the current recovery attempt.

Cryptocurrency flows to services linked with suspected human trafficking surged 85% year over year in 2025.

The findings come from a new report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, which highlighted that the intersection of cryptocurrency and suspected human trafficking expanded markedly last year.

Which Crypto Assets Are Most Used in Suspected Human Trafficking Networks?

The report outlined four primary categories of suspected crypto-facilitated human trafficking. This includes Telegram-based “international escort” services, forced labor recruitment linked to scam compounds, prostitution networks, and child sexual abuse material vendors (CSAM). 

“The intersection of cryptocurrency and suspected human trafficking intensified in 2025, with total transaction volume reaching hundreds of millions of dollars across identified services, an 85% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The dollar amounts significantly understate the human toll of these crimes, where the true cost is measured in lives impacted rather than money transferred,” Chainalysis wrote.

According to the report, payment methods varied across categories. International escort services and prostitution networks used stablecoins.

“The ‘international escort services are tightly integrated with Chinese-language money laundering networks. These networks rapidly facilitate the conversion of USD stablecoins into local currencies, potentially blunting concerns that assets held in stablecoins might be frozen,” Chainalysis noted.

Human Trafficking Service Inflows by Asset Type. Source: Chainalysis

CSAM vendors have historically relied more heavily on Bitcoin (BTC). However, Bitcoin’s dominance has declined with the rise of alternative Layer 1 networks. 

In 2025, while these networks continue to accept mainstream cryptocurrencies for payments, they increasingly turn to Monero  (XMR) to launder proceeds. According to Chainalysis,

“Instant exchangers, which provide rapid and anonymous cryptocurrency swapping without KYC requirements, play a crucial role in this process.”

The Dual Role of Crypto in Human Trafficking-Linked Transactions

Chainalysis noted that the surge in cryptocurrency flows to services linked with suspected human trafficking is not occurring in isolation. Instead, it mirrors the rapid expansion of Southeast Asia–based scam compounds, online casinos and gambling platforms, and Chinese-language money laundering (CMLN) and guarantee networks operating primarily through Telegram. 

Together, these entities form a fast-growing regional illicit ecosystem with global reach. According to the report, Chinese-language services operating across mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and multiple Southeast Asian countries exhibit advanced payment processing capabilities and extensive cross-border networks. 

Furthermore, geographic analysis reveals that while many trafficking-linked services are based in Southeast Asia, cryptocurrency inflows originate globally. Significant transaction flows were traced to countries including the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Australia. 

“While traditional trafficking routes and patterns persist, these Southeast Asian services exemplify how cryptocurrency technology enables trafficking operations to facilitate payments and obscure money flows across borders more efficiently than ever before. The diversity of destination countries suggests these networks have developed sophisticated infrastructure for global operations,” the report read.

At the same time, Chainalysis stressed that blockchain transparency offers investigators deeper visibility into trafficking-related financial activity. 

Unlike cash transactions, which leave little to no audit trail, blockchain-based transfers generate permanent, traceable records. This creates new opportunities for detection and disruption that are not possible with traditional payment systems.

As capital flows sharply out of the crypto market in early 2026 and investor sentiment remains at extreme fear levels, venture capital allocation decisions have become a valuable signal. These moves help retail investors identify sectors that may still hold potential during a bear market.

Recent reports indicate that the crypto market environment has changed. The sectors attracting VC funding have shifted accordingly.

VCs Invest Over $2 Billion in Crypto in Early 2026

Data from CryptoRank shows that venture capital firms have invested more than $2 billion into crypto projects since the beginning of the year. On average, weekly inflows have exceeded $400 million.

Crypto Fundraising in Early 2026. Source: CryptoRank

Several large deals stand out. Rain raised $250 million to build enterprise-grade stablecoin payment infrastructure. BitGo secured $212.8 million through its IPO, reinforcing its role as a digital asset custodian and security provider for institutional clients.

BlackOpal also raised $200 million for its GemStone product, an investment-grade vehicle backed by tokenized Brazilian credit card receivables.

Top Funding Rounds For Crypto VCs in Early 2026. Source: Alex Dulub

Beyond these deals, Ripple invested $150 million in trading platform LMAX. The move supports the integration of RLUSD as a core collateral asset within institutional trading infrastructure. Tether also made a $150 million strategic investment in Gold.com, expanding global access to both tokenized and physical gold.

Analyst Milk Road notes that capital is no longer flowing into Layer 1 blockchains, meme coins, or AI integrations. Instead, stablecoin infrastructure, custody solutions, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization have emerged as the dominant investment themes.

Market data supports this shift. Since the start of the year, total crypto market capitalization has fallen by roughly $1 trillion. In contrast, stablecoin market capitalization has remained above $300 billion. The total value of tokenized RWAs has reached an all-time high of over $24 billion.

What Does the Shift in VC Appetite Signal?

Ryan Kim, founding partner at Hashed, argues that VC expectations have fundamentally changed. The shift reflects a new investment standard across the industry.

In 2021, investors focused on tokenomics, community growth, and narrative-driven projects. By 2026, VCs will prioritize real revenue, regulatory advantages, and institutional clients.

“Notice what’s absent? No L1s. No DEXs. No ‘community-driven’ anything. Every dollar went to infrastructure and compliance,” Ryan Kim stated.

The largest deals listed above involve infrastructure builders rather than token-driven projects designed to generate price speculation. As a result, the market lacks the elements that previously fueled hype cycles and FOMO.

“Not on speculation. Not on hype cycles. They’re looking at the pipes, rails, and compliance layers,” analyst Milk Road said.

However, analyst Lukas (Miya) presents a more pessimistic view. He argues that crypto venture capital is in a state of collapse, citing a sharp, sustained decline in limited partner commitments.

He points to several warning signs. High-profile firms such as Mechanism and Tangent have shifted away from crypto. Many firms are quietly unwinding their positions.

It may still be too early to declare the collapse of crypto VC, given that more than $2 billion has flowed into the sector since the start of the year. At a minimum, these changes suggest that crypto is integrating more deeply with the traditional financial system, a potential sign of long-term maturation.

The US DOJ (Department of Justice) has secured a 20-year prison sentence against the founder of a sprawling crypto investment scheme.

According to prosecutors, this scheme had defrauded more than 90,000 investors worldwide of over $200 million.

DOJ Exposes and Dismantles $200 Million Bitcoin Ponzi as Founder Receives 20-Year Prison Term

In a statement released on Thursday, the DOJ confirmed that Ramil Ventura Palafox, 61, was sentenced after pleading guilty to wire fraud and money laundering charges.

Palafox was the founder, chairman, and CEO of Praetorian Group International (PGI), a multi-level marketing company that claimed to generate outsized returns through Bitcoin trading and crypto-related strategies.

According to court documents, PGI operated from December 2019 to October 2021, raising more than $201 million from investors worldwide. The company promised daily returns of 0.5% to 3%, marketed as profits from sophisticated Bitcoin arbitrage and trading activities.

In reality, investigators found PGI was not conducting trading at the scale required to generate such returns. Instead, it functioned as a classic Ponzi scheme, using funds from new investors to pay earlier participants.

Authorities said at least $30.2 million was invested in fiat currency, alongside 8,198 Bitcoin valued at approximately $171.5 million at the time of investment.

Confirmed losses reached at least $62.7 million, though prosecutors indicated the total financial harm could be significantly higher.

Lavish Lifestyle and Fabricated Profits: How Palafox Hid the Collapse Behind a Luxury Facade

To maintain the illusion of profitability, Palafox allegedly created and controlled an online investor portal that displayed fabricated account balances.

Between 2020 and 2021, the platform consistently misrepresented investment performance. It falsely showed steady gains and reinforced investor confidence even as the scheme unraveled behind the scenes.

Court filings detail how Palafox diverted substantial amounts of investor funds to finance a lavish personal lifestyle.

According to prosecutors, he spent roughly $3 million on 20 luxury vehicles. He also spent approximately $329,000 on penthouse accommodations at a luxury hotel chain and purchased four residential properties in Las Vegas and Los Angeles worth more than $6 million.

Additional expenditures included around $3 million on designer clothing, jewelry, watches, and home furnishings from high-end retailers.

Prosecutors further alleged that Palafox transferred at least $800,000 in fiat currency and 100 Bitcoin—then valued at approximately $3.3 million—to a family member.

The scheme began to collapse in mid-2021 after PGI’s website went offline and withdrawal requests mounted. Although Palafox resigned as CEO in September 2021, authorities said he initially retained control over company accounts.

Prosecutors described this case as one of the more significant crypto-related Ponzi schemes in recent years. The sentencing marks a decisive conclusion to a scheme that thrived on exaggerated crypto profits and global recruitment networks.

Parallels with FTX: How PGI Echoed a Larger Crypto Collapse

Despite differences in scale and sophistication, this case is similar in many ways to the FTX collapse and associated contagion. Both exploited the crypto boom, promising investors outsized, unrealistic returns:

Palafox with daily Bitcoin gains of 0.5–3%,

FTX through high-yield exchange products tied to Alameda Research.

Investor funds were misappropriated for lavish personal spending:

Palafox on luxury cars, real estate, and designer goods

SBF on Alameda’s risky bets, properties, and political donations.

Both schemes used deceptive methods to maintain investor confidence:

PGI with a fake portal showing steady gains

FTX with hidden liabilities and inflated valuations.

PGI defrauded over 90,000 investors with confirmed losses exceeding $62.7 million, while FTX affected millions and billions in missing funds.

Federal prosecutions followed, with Palafox sentenced to 20 years in February 2026 and SBF to 25 years in 2024.

All these highlight a trend among bad actors in crypto while also revealing the DOJ’s ongoing crackdown on crypto-related fraud.

Polygon price is showing fresh signs of recovery after weeks of steady selling. Since February 11, POL is up nearly 13%, and over the past 24 hours, it has gained around 5.4%, holding most of its rebound near $0.095.

At first glance, the structure looks similar to the setup that triggered Polygon’s 90% rally earlier this year. Price is stabilizing, momentum is improving, and buyers are active near support. But this time, one critical element is missing. The last rally began after sellers were fully flushed out. This time, that flush has not happened yet.

POL Price Repeats the Old Reversal Pattern, But Without a Clean Seller Flush

Before the January rally, Polygon formed a very clear bottom. Between December and early January, the POL price printed a sharp lower low in a single move. Sellers capitulated. Weak hands exited. That created a clean base for buyers to step in.

This time, the structure is different.

Between January 31 and February 11, POL again made a lower low near $0.087, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher low. RSI measures buying and selling strength, and this bullish divergence usually signals that selling pressure is weakening. But instead of one decisive breakdown candle, POL tested the same support area twice.

Divergence Setup: TradingView

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Two separate candles touched the $0.087 zone. This creates a “lower-low zone” instead of a clean lower low.

That matters. When a market prints a single deep low, it usually means sellers have given up, hinting at exhaustion. When the price keeps revisiting the same level, it means sellers are still active. Supply has not been fully absorbed yet. So even though the technical pattern looks similar, the psychology is different.

The market has stabilized, but it has not been fully cleansed. That unfinished seller flush is the foundation of the entire twist.

Muted Leverage and Rising Shorts Reflect Unfinished Selling Pressure

This incomplete flush is clearly visible in the derivatives data. During the January rally, leverage exploded early.

Open interest on Binance jumped from around $16.6 million to over $40 million, rising more than 140% in a few days. Traders rushed into long positions as soon as the price turned. This time, that has not happened. Since February 11, while POL gained nearly 13%, open interest has stayed near $18.80 million. There is no strong buildup of leverage yet. Possibly hinting at low conviction.

Open Interest Steady: Santiment

More importantly, funding rates are now negative, near -0.012. Funding rates show which side dominates futures markets. Negative rates mean short traders are paying longs. That signals growing bearish positioning.

In January, funding was positive. Traders were betting aggressively on upside. Now, shorts are building.

This fits perfectly with the price structure. Because sellers have not been flushed out, traders are still comfortable betting against the rally. They see unfinished downside risk. So instead of chasing longs, many are positioning for pullbacks. That lends a major hit to the supposed rally’s conviction.

Funding Rate: Santiment

This keeps leverage restrained and momentum controlled. The rally is moving forward, but under constant pressure.

Whale Accumulation Is Supporting Price, But Not Forcing Capitulation

While traders remain cautious, large holders are behaving differently. Since early February, whale holdings have risen from around 7.5 billion to nearly 8.75 billion POL, an increase of about 16%. This shows that long-term buyers are accumulating quietly.

Their buying is the main reason the price keeps rebounding from the $0.087 area.

POL Whales: Santiment

But whale accumulation has another effect. It absorbs supply without triggering panic. Instead of forcing weak sellers out, whales are slowly taking their coins. That stabilizes the price but delays capitulation. It is worth noting that during the last early-2026 rally, these Polygon whales hardly increased their stash.

So the market ends up in between:

Sellers are still present (not flushed out)

Buyers are active

No one is fully in control of the Polygon price

This is why the price is rising gradually, not explosively. And that might limit the rally potential going forward.

Key Polygon Price Levels Will Decide Whether Sellers Finally Get Flushed

With unfinished selling pressure still in the system, price levels now matter more than patterns. On the upside, the key level is $0.11.

A clean break above $0.118 would signal that remaining sellers are being overwhelmed. From current levels, that would be another 24% move. It would likely attract leverage and weaken short positions, finally completing the flush. Above that, targets open toward $0.137 and $0.186.

Polygon Price Analysis: TradingView

On the downside, the critical support zone is $0.083-$0.087. If POL breaks below that, the lower-low setup fails, and a new one starts forming. That would confirm that sellers still have control and that the unfinished flush is playing out. In that case, the price could slide toward $0.072 and $0.061.

The tokenized gold market has surpassed $6 billion, expanding strongly amid short-term volatility in physical gold prices.

As investors seek exposure to hard assets through digital infrastructure, tokenized gold has become one of the fastest-growing segments of the broader digital asset market.

Tokenized Gold Market Surges Past $6 Billion

According to data from Dune, the total market capitalization of tokenized gold has increased by more than $2 billion since the beginning of the year. At press time, the sector stood at $6.12 billion.

More than 1.2 million ounces of physical gold are now locked in custody to back these digital tokens, highlighting growing demand for blockchain-based representations of bullion.

Tokenized Gold Market. Source: Dune

Tether Gold (XAUT) remains the dominant player, with a market capitalization of $3.5 billion. It accounts for over half of the total tokenized gold market. 

According to Token Terminal data, its market cap has surged more than 50% over the past month alone. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino previously stated that the company plans to increase gold exposure to 10–15% of its overall investment portfolio. 

The firm has significantly accelerated its gold accumulation strategy, reportedly outpacing sovereign buyers such as Greece, Qatar, and Australia. In the last quarter of 2025, Tether added 27 metric tons of gold to its fund exposure.

Furthermore, Tether made a $150 million strategic investment in the precious metals platform Gold.com. The transaction gave Tether approximately 12% ownership of the company. 

This partnership will also allow Tether to integrate XAUT into Gold.com’s platform. The collaboration is designed to broaden “access to gold across digital and traditional distribution channels.”

“The companies are also exploring options to enable customers to purchase physical gold using digital currencies such as USD₮, the world’s largest stablecoin, and USA₮, the newly launched, federally regulated, dollar-backed stablecoin,” Tether wrote.

In addition to its expansion efforts, Tether also launched Scudo, a measurement unit representing 1/1,000 of an XAUT (Gold Ounce)

Paxos-issued PAX Gold (PAXG) ranks second in the sector with a market capitalization of $2.3 billion, following a 33.2% increase over the past month. Together, XAUT and PAXG account for the majority of activity within the tokenized gold ecosystem.

Gold Prices See Volatility Following Record High 

Meanwhile, tokenized gold’s rise comes amid gold’s record rally, which has experienced notable volatility in recent sessions.

Market data shows that after reaching an all-time high of $5,602 per ounce on January 29, gold prices corrected sharply, falling to a low of $4,402 on February 2.

Following that decline, prices staged a partial recovery but faced renewed selling pressure yesterday. BeInCrypto previously reported that spot gold fell by more than 3% and silver by over 10%, amid escalating economic stress.

Gold Price Performance. Source: TradingView

At the time of writing, gold was trading at $4,967 per ounce, up 1.21% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin price remains under pressure, down around 1.2% over the past 24 hours and trading close to $66,000 at press time. While short-term rebounds continue to appear, the broader structure still looks weak.

Now, even major institutions are turning cautious on their Bitcoin price predictions. New on-chain signals and long-term holders suggest the downside risk is not finished yet.

Standard Chartered’s Warning Matches Weak ETF and Institutional Flows

Standard Chartered recently reiterated that Bitcoin could still fall toward $50,000 before any sustained recovery. The bank pointed to weakening ETF demand and fading institutional participation as key risks. When this view is compared with current market data, it lines up perfectly.

On the price chart, Bitcoin has broken down from a bear flag structure. A bear flag forms when prices consolidate after a sharp fall and then resume the downtrend. This pattern suggests that selling pressure remains dominant, even when short-term rebounds appear.

At the same time, institutional flow indicators are weakening. Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, which tracks whether large capital is entering or leaving the market, has dropped sharply. CMF now looks weaker than it did during the January–April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin fell around 31%.

Historical BTC Flows: TradingView

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This time, the decline is steeper. Bitcoin has already dropped nearly 38% from its peak, and CMF has fallen faster than in early 2025. This confirms that institutional buying is not returning yet. Without sustained inflows from large investors, rallies struggle to hold.

It is worth noting that during the April-October 2025 phase, when BTC peaked, there were only a few instances when the CMF fell under the zero line, and that too marginally. But now, the CMF dip looks way scarier.

This is why Standard Chartered’s caution makes sense. The breakdown on the chart and weak ETF-linked flows are telling the same story. But institutional weakness is not the only concern.

On-Chain Profits and Long-Term Holders Still Point to More Downside

Beyond ETFs, on-chain data shows that investor confidence remains fragile.

One key indicator is Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL. NUPL measures how much profit or loss holders are sitting on by comparing current prices with when coins were last moved.

During the April 2024 rebound, NUPL was near 0.42. That showed minimal unrealized profits and supported a recovery. Today, NUPL has dropped much lower. It fell to around 0.11 in early February and is now near 0.17. This means most of the leftover profits from the bull cycle have already been wiped out. But this doesn’t confirm a bottom if the bigger picture is taken into consideration.

Bitcoin NUPL: Glassnode

History shows NUPL can still fall further. In March 2023, NUPL dropped to near 0.02 when Bitcoin traded around $20,000. That marked deep capitulation before the next major rally began. Compared to that period, current NUPL levels remain relatively elevated. This suggests the market may not be fully washed out yet.

Long-term holder behavior supports this view. Long-term BTC holders are wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than one year. These investors usually accumulate during major bottoms and help stabilize prices.

Right now, they are still net sellers. In early February 2025, long-term holders reduced holdings by more than 170,000 BTC. At the peak of recent selling, in February 2026, outflows reached nearly 245,000 BTC. This is a heavier distribution than during the January–April 2025 correction.

Holders Selling: Glassnode

Back then, demand from long-term holders had already started recovering before prices bounced. Today, that recovery has not appeared. In simple terms, institutions are cautious, profits are shrinking, and long-term holders are not stepping in yet. This combination makes a strong rebound unlikely in the near term.

Why the $53,000–$48,000 Zone Still Matters on the Bitcoin Price Chart

With fundamentals and on-chain data aligned to the downside, the Bitcoin price levels now become critical.

The current bear flag projection points toward a broad support zone between $53,200 and $48,300. This range aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels.

The midpoint of this zone sits close to $50,000, which remains a major psychological level. Round numbers often attract strong buying and selling activity, making them natural magnets during corrections. This is why Standard Chartered’s $50,000 view fits the technical structure. It is not an arbitrary target. It sits directly inside the main support band.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

If selling pressure continues and ETF flows remain weak, Bitcoin could test this region in the coming months. In a deeper risk-off scenario, downside could even extend toward $42,400, which matches longer-term breakdown projections and historical support.

For this bearish Bitcoin price prediction to slow down, BTC would need to reclaim and hold above the $72,100 region with strong volume and renewed institutional inflows. That would signal that demand has returned and that the bear flag has failed. So far, there is no evidence of that.

Bitcoin (BTC) has extended its downward trajectory. Over the past 24 hours, the asset has declined 1.39%, pushing its total losses for the month beyond 30%.

While the broader bear market environment remains the primary driver of weakness, emerging on-chain signals suggest that concentrated whale activity could reportedly be amplifying BTC’s downside. 

Whale Activity Raises Concerns Over Short-Term Bitcoin Volatility 

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that a whale’s (3NVeXm) deposits have coincided with Bitcoin’s price drops. Data from Arkham showed that the whale started depositing Bitcoin to Binance three weeks ago, starting out with modest amounts. 

However, activity accelerated this week. On February 11, the whale transferred 5,000 BTC into the exchange. The string of transfers has continued with the wallet sending another 2,800 coins just today.

Whale 3NVeXm Bitcoin Transfers. Source: Arkham

Lookonchain suggested that the timing of these deposits may have influenced short-term price action.

“Every time he deposits BTC, the price drops. Yesterday, I warned when he made a deposit — and soon after, BTC dropped over 3%,” the post read.

As of the latest available data, the address still holds 166.5 BTC, valued at over $11 million at current market prices. Large exchange inflows are often interpreted as a precursor to selling, as investors typically move assets to trading platforms to liquidate or hedge positions. 

While correlation does not necessarily imply causation, the scale and timing of these transfers could have increased immediate sell-side pressure in an already fragile market structure. In periods of heightened sensitivity, even the perception of whale-driven selling can amplify downside moves as traders react to on-chain signals and adjust positions accordingly.

Capitulation Signals Point to Market Stress 

The transfers come at a time of pronounced weakness across the Bitcoin market. An analyst noted that Bitcoin’s realized losses surged to $2.3 billion.

“This puts us in the top 3-5 loss events ever recorded. Only a handful of moments in Bitcoin’s history have seen this level of capitulation,” the analysis read.

Bitcoin’s Realized Loss. Source: CryptoQuant

The analyst added that short-term holders, defined as those holding coins for less than 155 days, appear to be driving much of the current capitulation. Investors who accumulated BTC at $80,000-$110,000 are now locking in significant losses, suggesting that overleveraged retail participants and weaker hands are exiting their positions.

In contrast, long-term holders do not appear to be the primary source of this latest wave of selling. Historically, this cohort tends to hold through drawdowns.

“In the past, extreme loss spikes like this triggered rebounds. We’re seeing it now: BTC bounced from $60K to $71K after the capitulation. But this could still be the beginning of a deep and slow bleed-out. Relief rallies happen even in prolonged bear markets,” the analyst stated.

Meanwhile, BeInCrypto previously highlighted several signals suggesting that BTC may still be in the early stages of a broader bear cycle, leaving room for further downside risk. CryptoQuant analysts have pointed to the $55,000 level as Bitcoin’s realized price, a level historically associated with bear market bottoms. 

In previous cycles, BTC traded 24% to 30% below its realized price before stabilizing. Currently, Bitcoin remains above that level.

When BTC approaches its realized price zone, it has historically entered a period of sideways consolidation before staging a recovery. Some analysts argue that a deeper correction toward the sub-$40,000 range could mark a more definitive bottom formation.

Hedera price has declined in recent sessions, forming a descending broadening wedge pattern that typically signals a potential bullish breakout. HBAR trades at $0.0923 at publication, remaining below the $0.0938 resistance level. 

While the technical structure suggests upside potential, Bitcoin’s direction could determine whether that breakout materializes.

HBAR Holders Are Pulling Back On Selling

The Money Flow Index, or MFI, is forming a bullish divergence against HBAR price action. While HBAR recently posted a lower low, the MFI printed a higher reading. This divergence signals weakening selling pressure beneath the surface.

Bullish divergences often precede reversals in cryptocurrency markets. When momentum indicators improve during price declines, it reflects reduced conviction among sellers. Investors appear to be slowing distribution, which may allow HBAR to stabilize and attempt a rebound.

HBAR MFI. Source: TradingView

A confirmed breakout from the descending broadening wedge could trigger forced short liquidations. Liquidation data shows a concentration of short positions near the $0.1012 level. A move above that threshold would likely pressure bearish traders.

The liquidation map indicates most short liquidations sit at up to $0.1012. A rally through that zone could trigger approximately $4.34 million in liquidations. Forced buying from liquidated shorts often accelerates bullish momentum and strengthens breakout structures in volatile altcoins.

HBAR Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass Bitcoin Remains a Problem

Despite improving technical signals, Bitcoin remains the dominant influence. Hedera has shown increasing correlation with BTC over recent months. When Bitcoin declines, HBAR frequently mirrors that weakness regardless of its internal setup.

A brief divergence occurred between June and July 2025, when Bitcoin advanced while HBAR moved sideways. Outside that period, price behavior largely aligned. With correlation now stronger, HBAR could struggle if Bitcoin fails to generate upward momentum.

HBAR Correlation To Bitcoin. Source: TradingView HBAR Price Breakout On The Cards

HBAR price sits at $0.0923, trading within the descending broadening wedge. Immediate resistance at $0.0938 continues to cap upside attempts. A confirmed breakout requires flipping $0.1005 into support and breaching $0.1071 decisively.

Clearing those levels would strengthen the bullish outlook and open the path toward $0.1300, which represents a recovery of recent losses. However, $0.1071 remains the primary short-term objective before any extended rally becomes sustainable.

HBAR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Conversely, renewed Bitcoin weakness could invalidate the bullish thesis. Failure to overcome $0.0938 or loss of $0.0855 support would increase downside risk. A drop toward $0.0780 would confirm continued consolidation and delay any breakout scenario.