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Bitcoin’s (BTC) bear market has weighed heavily on investors across the spectrum. Corporate treasuries, major whales, and even nation-state holders have all felt the pressure.

The cryptocurrency’s slide has slashed the value of El Salvador’s holdings as credit default swaps rise to a five-month high, raising concerns over the country’s IMF program and debt outlook.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Bet Under Pressure as Portfolio Drops

According to the latest data from El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, the country’s Bitcoin reserves stand at 7,560 BTC, worth approximately $503.8 million. Bloomberg reported that the portfolio’s value has fallen from around $800 million at Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak, marking a drop of nearly $300 million in just four months.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Holdings. Source: El Salvador Bitcoin Office

Bukele, an ardent Bitcoin advocate, has continued purchasing one Bitcoin per day. However, this strategy increases the country’s exposure to market volatility.

In contrast, Bhutan recently sold $22.4 million worth of Bitcoin. The divergent strategies of El Salvador and Bhutan reflect fundamentally different risk philosophies. 

Bhutan’s Bitcoin mining operations generated more than $765 million in profit since 2019. However, the 2024 Bitcoin halving significantly increased mining costs, compressing margins and reducing returns. Bhutan now appears to be liquidating part of its holdings, while El Salvador continues to prioritize long-term accumulation.

Nonetheless, the country has also diversified its portfolio. Last month, it spent $50 million to acquire gold as demand for the safe-haven metal rose amid macroeconomic tensions.

IMF Loan Talks Face Strain Over El Salvador’s Bitcoin Policy

El Salvador’s deepening commitment to cryptocurrency has impacted relations with the International Monetary Fund. The government’s continued Bitcoin purchases, combined with delays in implementing pension reforms, have complicated the country’s IMF agreement. 

The Fund has expressed concern about Bitcoin’s potential impact on fiscal stability. A disruption to the IMF program would weaken one of the key supports behind El Salvador’s sovereign debt recovery. Over the past three years, the country’s bonds have returned more than 130%, making them one of the standout turnaround stories in emerging markets.

“The IMF may take issue with disbursements potentially being used to add Bitcoin. Bitcoin being down also doesn’t help to ease investors’ concerns,” Christopher Mejia, an EM sovereign analyst at T Rowe Price, told Bloomberg.

The IMF approved a 40-month Extended Fund Facility on February 26, 2025, unlocking about $1.4 billion in total, according to official IMF documentation. The first review ended in June 2025, with $231 million disbursed.

However, the second review has remained on hold since September, following the government’s delay in publishing a pension system analysis. During that period, El Salvador continued to add to its Bitcoin reserves despite repeated warnings from the IMF. 

A third review is scheduled for March, with each review tied to additional loan disbursements.

“The continued purchase of Bitcoin, in our view, does create some potential challenges for the IMF reviews. The market would react quite poorly if the anchor provided by the IMF were no longer present.” Jared Lou, who helps manage the William Blair Emerging Markets Debt Fund, said.

Meanwhile, bond markets are signaling rising concern over El Salvador’s fiscal outlook. Credit default swaps have climbed to a five-month high, reflecting increasing investor anxiety about the country’s repayment capacity.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, El Salvador faces $450 million in bond payments this year, with obligations increasing to nearly $700 million next year.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin policy now sits alongside key fiscal and IMF negotiations. The outcome of upcoming IMF reviews and the country’s bond repayment schedule will play a significant role in shaping investor confidence and the sustainability of its debt trajectory.

Prediction platform Polymarket recently launched a new feature that lets users bet on cryptocurrency price movements every five minutes.

The event signals rising demand for real-time crypto sentiment data among traders and investors.

Real-Time Sentiment Drives Short-Term Contracts

For now, the new market is limited to Bitcoin, though support for major altcoins is expected to follow.

Price will update dynamically, in tune with market sentiment and immediate price reaction. All trades will be executed on-chain to ensure transparency and security. 

Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin price bets. Source: Polymarket.

The feature targets day traders and crypto enthusiasts looking for a fast-paced experience. With Bitcoin’s recent dip, price swings have grown increasingly erratic, amplifying short-term volatility.

The initiative builds on existing contracts with varying durations, ranging from 15-minute and hourly intervals to four-hour time frames. It also comes as prediction markets are seeing exponential growth in usage, with individual polls recording trading volumes in the hundreds of millions of dollars. 

It also reflects growing concern that shifting attention toward these platforms could distort crypto’s core purpose and use cases.

Market Weakness Fuels Betting Activity

Among the wide range of polls offered by prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, a significant share involves crypto bets. More specifically, many of these contracts focus on forecasting the future price of major digital assets.

Interest in these wagers has surged in recent months. 

Tens of millions in trading volume have been directed toward Bitcoin’s February price alone, alongside heavily traded contracts linked to Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.

These forecasts have gained traction as the broader crypto market struggles to regain momentum. In this environment, volatility itself appears to be fueling participation, with traders using market weakness as an opportunity to place short-term bets.

While the proliferation of such polls has generated substantial trading activity, it is also drawing capital and attention away from underlying fundamentals.

Instead of sustained focus on integration or real-world use cases, crypto narratives risk shifting toward probabilities and crowd positioning.

Polymarket’s new five-minute betting feature further amplifies that dynamic.

If price-based wagering continues to attract more capital than long-term allocation, the market could increasingly revolve around price movements rather than durable value creation.

Israel indicted two citizens for allegedly using classified information to place wagers on the prediction platform Polymarket, according to a statement made by authorities on Thursday. 

The news renewed concern that prediction markets make it easier to engage in insider trading for profit. 

Israeli Agencies Target Military Insider Betting Case

In a joint statement, the Israeli Defense Ministry, Israel Police, and the Shin Bet said the suspects — an army reservist and a civilian — were arrested on suspicion of placing bets on Polymarket about potential military operations. 

“This was allegedly based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed through their military duties,” the statement said.

The announcement comes weeks after Israeli public broadcaster Kan News reported on the matter. The outlet said security agencies had opened an investigation into the suspected misuse of classified information within the defense establishment.

The report alleged that the information was used to place bets on Polymarket, including on the timing of Israel’s opening strike on Iran during the 12-day war in June 2025.

These platforms have seen a surge in wagers on geopolitics, crypto, politics, and sports. Although marketed as alternatives to traditional gambling, their structure closely mirrors conventional betting markets.

Users buy and sell shares tied to real-world outcomes, with prices ranging from $0.01 to $1.00 reflecting the market’s implied probability of each outcome.

Their accessibility, pseudonymity, and ease of use have also prompted concerns about potential insider trading and misconduct.

Are Prediction Markets Exploitable Profit Machines?

Since the start of the year, several incidents have emerged, raising questions about whether individuals with confidential information are using these platforms to generate substantial profits.

In early January, a cluster of newly created Polymarket accounts placed large, precisely timed wagers on contracts predicting Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office. 

These wallets netted more than $630,000 in combined profits just hours before reports of his capture broke.

A similar controversy emerged last December. A Polymarket user earned nearly $1 million by placing highly accurate bets on Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings. The precision prompted speculation about possible insider access. 

The wallet achieved an unusually high success rate, correctly predicting nearly all outcomes, including several low-probability results. However, there is no evidence confirming any internal connection.

Together, the incidents have intensified debate over the role of prediction markets. Critics question whether they function as efficient information aggregators or enable the monetization of privileged, non-public information.

Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng has defended the exchange against claims that it was responsible for the October 10, 2025, “10/10” crypto crash, which saw roughly $19 billion in liquidations.

Speaking at CoinDesk’s Consensus Hong Kong conference on February 12, 2026, Teng argued the sell-off was driven by other factors besides any Binance-specific failures.

Richard Teng Gives Binance’s Side of the Story on October 10 Crash

The Binance co-CEO cited macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks between the US and China. Specifically, he cited:

Fresh US tariff threats, including potential 100% duties on Chinese imports, and

China’s imposition of rare-earth export controls.

The combination, he said, flipped global risk sentiment, triggering mass liquidations across all exchanges, centralized and decentralized alike.

“The US equity market plunged $1.5 trillion in value that day,” Teng said. “The US equity market alone saw $150 billion of liquidation. The crypto market is much smaller. It was about $19 billion. And the liquidation on crypto happened across all the exchanges.”

The majority of liquidations (roughly 75%) occurred around 9:00 p.m. ET, coinciding with the release of macro news.

Teng acknowledged minor platform issues during the event, including a stablecoin depegging (USDe) and temporary slowness in asset transfers.

However, he stressed these were unrelated to the broader market collapse. He also emphasized that Binance supported affected users, including by compensating some of them.

“…trading data showed no evidence of a mass withdrawal from the platform,” he added.

Last year, Binance reportedly facilitated $34 trillion in trading volume and served over 300 million users.

It is worth noting that the October 10 crash has been a persistent cause of Binance FUD over the past several months. The exchange has faced criticism from far and wide, with the heaviest attacks coming from rival exchange OKX and its CEO, Star Xu.

Traders Reject Teng’s Macro Shock Explanation Amid $19 Billion 10/10 Liquidation

Despite Teng’s detailed defense, traders on social media have responded swiftly and critically. On X (Twitter), users accused Binance of locking APIs and engineering conditions that forced liquidations, only to deflect responsibility with the “macro shock” explanation.

“Blaming macro shocks is the new ‘it was a glitch.’ $19B liquidated and somehow nobody at Binance is responsible lol,” one user challenged.

Naysayers go further, with some users likening Teng’s claims to colloquial phrases in harsh criticism.

“‘It wasn’t us, it was the macro’ is the crypto exchange version of the dog ate my homework. $19B in liquidations and every platform just points at the guy next to them,” another said.

However, the majority of responses revolved around alleged fake API responses and questioned internal coordination at Binance. The general sentiment is that users feel the exchange is not fully transparent.

The backlash illustrates the ongoing tension between centralized exchanges and leveraged traders during high-volatility events.

While retail demand has cooled compared to previous years, Teng highlighted that institutional and corporate participation in crypto remains strong.

“Institutions are still entering the sector,” he said. “Meaning the smart money is deploying.”

Teng also framed the 10/10 event as part of a broader cyclical pattern in crypto markets. He argued that despite short-term turbulence, the sector’s underlying development continues, with institutional capital driving long-term confidence.

Still, the exchange faces a twofold challenge:

It must defend its role during unprecedented market stress

Binance must also restore trust with a skeptical trading community.

While the $19 billion liquidation wiped out positions across the market, the debate over who or what should be held accountable continues to simmer online. This is expected, given the fragility of confidence in high-leverage crypto trading.

Argentine fintech groups had welcomed the possibility that, for the first time, workers could deposit their salaries into virtual wallets. However, lawmakers removed the provision, a move widely seen as favoring traditional banking interests.

During negotiations to secure broader support for the bill, President Javier Milei’s party agreed to exclude the article, despite polls indicating that a large majority of Argentines prefer the freedom to choose where their salaries are deposited.

Distrust In Banks Drives Wallet Adoption

Argentine law today stipulates that workers must deposit their salaries into traditional bank accounts. Despite that law, digital wallet adoption in Argentina has soared over the past few decades. 

In part, that growth reflects limited access to banking. A 2022 Central Bank survey found that only 47% of Argentines had a bank account, a gap largely driven by longstanding distrust of traditional systems.

Decades of financial instability, including the 2001 “corralito” deposit freeze, persistent inflation, and repeated restrictions on access to funds, have eroded public trust in banks and accelerated a shift toward cash and dollar-denominated savings.

In response, fintech-run digital wallets, operated by non-bank payment service providers, have expanded access to financial services across Argentina.

Platforms such as Mercado Pago, Modo, Ualá, and Lemon now rank among the most widely used. Many users without access to traditional bank accounts rely on these apps as their first point of entry into the formal digital financial system.

That’s why fintech leaders welcomed a provision that would have allowed Argentines to deposit their salaries directly into virtual wallets. However, the article was cut out of the proposed labor reform before it was even debated in Congress.

”The exclusion of Article 35 from the labor reform eliminated the possibility for Argentinians to freely choose where to receive their salary. In practice, the obligation to channel salaries through traditional banks was maintained, following strong pressure from the sector.

However, citizens have already demonstrated their preference: nearly 75% of transfers in Argentina are made through CVUs, used by digital wallets. Millions of people receive their pay in banks only because the regulations require it, and then transfer their funds to fintechs in search of better products, lower costs, and higher returns,” Maximiliano Raimondi, CFO of Lemon told BeInCrypto.

Political Trade Off Favors Banks

Banking associations renewed their lobbying push this week. They sent letters to key senators outlining their objections to allowing salary deposits into digital wallets.

They argued that digital wallets lack adequate regulation, pose potential systemic risks, and could deepen financial exclusion.

“They do not have a regulatory, prudential or supervisory framework equivalent to that of banks and their approval would generate legal, financial, asset and systemic risks that would directly affect workers and the functioning of the financial system,” said Banco Provincia, a leading Argentine bank, in a statement. 

Fintech organizations pushed back, arguing that these claims were false. 

“All Payment Service Providers (PSPs) are regulated and supervised by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA),” said Lemon CFO Maximiliano Raimondi in a statement. “Digital wallets were the gateway to financial services for millions of people who were able to open a virtual account easily and free of charge, and access better financial solutions.”

A recent study by consulting firm Isonomía also found that 9 out of 10 Argentines wanted the option to choose where to deposit their salaries. The tendency was even stronger among independent workers and those who work in the informal sector. The report also revealed that 75% of Argentines already use digital wallets daily.

Ultimately, the banking sector prevailed before the bill reached a Senate vote. According to reports, the government removed the provision to avoid straining relations with banks and to improve the bill’s chances of securing final approval.

The Monero price has remained under pressure since mid-January, even as parts of the crypto market attempt to stabilize. After falling sharply through late January, the XMR price found support near $276 on February 6 and has since moved slightly higher.

But this recovery looks shaky. Chart patterns, weak dip buying, and mixed sentiment data suggest Monero may still be heading toward another major decline.

Bear Flag Breakdown and Weak Dip Buying Put XMR Under Pressure

Since January 14, Monero has been trading within a declining structure resembling a bearish pole-and-flag pattern. A bear flag is a short consolidation that forms after a sharp drop (ended on February 6 for XMR) and often signals that the downtrend may continue.

After falling more than 60% from its January peak, XMR moved sideways and slightly upward inside this flag. However, as of February 12, the price began slipping below the lower boundary, signaling a potential breakdown. This confirms the bearish breakdown at press time, unless, in the next few hours, some buyers can push XMR back inside the flag.

Momentum data shows that dip buyers are still present, but their strength remains limited. One useful indicator here is the Money Flow Index, or MFI. MFI tracks buying and selling pressure by combining price and volume, making it useful for spotting dip-buying strength.

XMR Sees Dip Buying: TradingView

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Since February 1, Monero’s MFI has trended upward (higher lows) while XMR moved sideways and lower. This suggests that some investors are buying dips. But MFI has failed to break above its upper trendline or form a clear higher-high structure. That means buying interest is present, but not strong enough to reverse the pattern weakness.

Exchange flow data supports this view. After three days of mild inflows, Monero recorded net outflows again on February 12, with around $372,000 worth of XMR moving out of exchanges. Negative netflow usually signals rising buying pressure.

Spot Flows: Coinglass

This shows that some are still buying. In simple terms, dip buyers are active, but only feebly.

Rising Social Interest Fails to Offset Falling Positive Sentiment

Social data shows another important weakness in Monero’s current setup.

Over the past few days, Monero’s social dominance has started to rise. Social dominance measures how much attention a coin receives compared to the rest of the crypto market. When it increases, it means more people are talking about the asset.

Between February 11 and February 12, social dominance rose from around 0.046% to 0.066%. This shows that interest in Monero is picking up slightly after weeks of decline. Historically, rising social activity has sometimes preceded short-term price rebounds.

For example, on January 12, social dominance surged near 0.92%. Within two days, Monero rallied 25%. A similar pattern appeared on January 18, when social interest rose ahead of another short-term price peak. However, the current rise in social dominance is much weaker than in those past cases. It remains well below the February high near 0.106 and far below January’s major spikes.

More importantly, positive sentiment is moving in the opposite direction. Positive sentiment tracks how much of the social discussion is optimistic rather than neutral or negative. Since February 9, Monero’s positive sentiment score has fallen sharply from about 27.26 to just 7.21, a 74% dip. This is a major decline.

Social Chatter Around XMR: Santiment

In January, when positive sentiment surged above 100, strong rallies followed. Today, sentiment is collapsing even as social chatter rises. This suggests that people are talking about Monero, but not in a confident or optimistic way. Much of the discussion appears driven by concern, speculation, and downside risk. This weak emotional backdrop makes it harder for any Monero price recovery to sustain momentum.

Monero Price Levels That Determine the Next Leg

With technical weakness and fragile demand, the XMR price levels now matter more than narratives. On the upside, the most important resistance sits near $361, discussed at the end of this section.

This level marks the center of the bear flag structure. A sustained move above $361 would suggest that buyers are regaining control and that the breakdown may be delayed. Not invalidated. Without a recovery above this zone, downside risks remain dominant.

One small positive signal comes from the Bull-Bear Power indicator. This metric compares buying strength against selling pressure to show which side is in control. Recently, bearish power has started to weaken even as the price slipped below key support. This suggests that sellers are losing some momentum.

Bears Losing Control: TradingView

If dip buying remains active while bearish pressure continues to fade, buyers could delay the breakdown and attempt to push XMR back above $361. 

On the downside, the first major support lies near $308. This level has acted as a short-term floor several times in recent days. Below $308, the next key support sits near $276, which marked the February low.

Monero Price Analysis: TradingView

If both levels fail, the bear flag projection points toward the $135 region. This target reflects nearly the full measured move of the prior decline and represents the next major historical support zone.

Some Coinbase users are currently experiencing a temporary disruption, leaving them unable to buy, sell, or transfer digital assets on Coinbase.com.

The issue, first reported by the platform on social media, has prompted concern among traders, though the company reassures customers that all funds remain secure.

Temporary Service Disruption Leaves Coinbase Users Unable to Trade

Coinbase, the largest US-based crypto exchange, confirmed the disruption in a statement on its official Twitter support channel, noting:

“We are aware that customers may be unable to buy, sell, or transfer on Coinbase.com at this time. Our team is investigating this issue and will provide an update. Your funds are safe,” the exchange shared in a post.

The company emphasized that the outage is temporary and that there is no indication of any long-term risk to user accounts or funds. Updates will be provided as the investigation progresses.

Community trackers and crypto news accounts, including MilkRoad, quickly picked up the report, echoing Coinbase’s statement.

While the cause of the disruption has not yet been disclosed, Coinbase’s quick acknowledgment reflects the platform’s growing focus on transparency amid increased scrutiny of crypto exchange reliability.

Temporary outages on exchanges, though relatively rare, can have ripple effects on trading activity and market sentiment, especially for high-volume users or during periods of heightened market volatility.

Some users have expressed frustration on social media, noting that being unable to execute trades temporarily could affect active positions. However, such disruptions are often resolved quickly and typically do not result in financial loss.

Coinbase Q4 Earnings In Focus

The incident comes ahead of Coinbase’s earnings report, with the exchange scheduled to release its Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 financial results today, Thursday, February 12, 2026, after market close (US time).

The market sentiment ahead of Coinbase earnings is predominantly cautious to bearish in the short term, driven by expectations of a sequential decline in key metrics amid softer crypto trading volumes, lower asset prices, and broader market weakness.

Analysts at Monness, Crespi, Hardt have also downgraded COIN stock amid predictions that Coinbase will struggle to meet Q4 earnings forecasts.

The downgrade reflects ongoing issues in digital asset trading and reduced visibility in near-term financial performance.

Coinbase (COIN) Stock Performance. Source: TradingView

As of this writing, COIN stock was trading for $140.31, down by over 45% year-to-date. While revenue is likely to lag, long-term prospects remain intact.

Gold and silver tumbled sharply on Thursday, rattling markets already on edge amid surging US financial stress.

Spot gold dropped by more than 3% while silver plunged by more than 10%, reversing a portion of their recent rally.

Bad News for Gold and Silver Amid Record US Debt and Rising Bankruptcies

As of this writing, gold was trading for $4,956, down 3.97% while silver exchanged hands for $76.74 after losing 10.65% in the last 24 hours.

Gold and Silver Price Performance. Source: TradingView

The sudden sell-off has prompted analysts and investors to question whether a broader repricing of hard assets is unfolding.

The metals’ retreat comes amid intensifying economic stress. Over the past three weeks, 18 US companies with liabilities exceeding $50 million have filed for bankruptcy.

Notably, this is the fastest pace since the pandemic and approaches levels last seen during the 2009 financial crisis.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed said in a press release that household debt has reached a record $18.8 trillion, with mortgages, auto loans, credit card balances, and student loan balances all at historic highs.

Serious credit card delinquencies climbed to 12.7% in Q4 2025, the highest since 2011, with younger households under particular strain.

Such conditions typically emerge late in the economic cycle, often preceding policy interventions like rate cuts or liquidity injections.

Bitcoin has also remained under pressure, falling to the $65,000 range as the pioneer crypto lags both equities and traditional safe-haven assets over the past few months.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

While digital assets often present as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, recent trends suggest they are not yet playing that role effectively in this cycle.

Analysts Split on Metals Sell-Off as Fed Watchers Eye Rate Cuts and Asset Repricing

Analysts are at a crossroads, offering differing interpretations of the metals’ pullback. Some argue it reflects short-term volatility within a broader trend of hard-asset repricing.

“Gold was repriced to $5,000 by the US, and markets caught up,” wrote macro analyst Marty Party, suggesting that authorities may be positioning precious metals to collateralize sovereign debt alongside digital assets like Bitcoin.

However, others caution that tight liquidity conditions remain dominant, and further weakness could emerge if financial stress continues to mount.

Policy watchers are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s potential response. Citi economists project softer job growth in spring and summer after January’s payrolls came in below expectations, which could create room for three rate cuts later in 2026.

Historically, rising corporate bankruptcies and consumer delinquencies precede monetary easing. This suggests that official support could arrive once economic strain becomes more visible in the data.

The confluence of record household debt, accelerating bankruptcies, and declining hard-asset prices suggests a market at a critical inflection point.

Corporate Bankruptcies. Source: Bull Theory on X

“This economic decay, mirroring the indicators of 2008, is not an anomaly. It is the direct consequence of the current administration’s ideologically driven policies, prioritizing inflationary fiscal adventurism and social engineering over foundational economic stability and competitive market principles,” commented Jade Kotonono, a popular user on X.

Is the current precious metals crash a temporary correction or the early stages of a multi-year repricing? Some bullish analysts anticipate that once gold consolidates near $5,000, rotation back into digital assets could accelerate.

Notwithstanding, the current environment presents both opportunities and risks, and investors should conduct their own research.

With markets digesting unprecedented financial stress, gold, silver, and Bitcoin may fall further. Conversely, a stabilizing policy response could catalyze the next leg of the asset repricing cycle.

Ethereum price remains under pressure after a sharp decline that unsettled investors across the crypto market. 

Although Ethereum appears to be entering a historically favorable accumulation zone, on-chain indicators reveal mixed conviction among different holder cohorts.

Ethereum Is In a Prime Accumulation Range

Ethereum’s Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, ratio indicates that ETH has entered what analysts describe as an “opportunity zone.” This range lies between negative 18% and negative 28%. Historically, when MVRV falls into this band, selling pressure approaches exhaustion.

Previous entries into this zone often preceded price reversals. Investors typically accumulate when unrealized losses deepen. Such behavior can stabilize the Ethereum price and initiate recovery phases. However, historical probability does not guarantee immediate upside.

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Ethereum MVRV Ratio. Source: Santiment

Current macro conditions complicate the outlook. Liquidity constraints and cautious sentiment may delay accumulation. While MVRV suggests undervaluation relative to realized cost basis, broader market weakness could suppress momentum and extend consolidation before any meaningful rebound begins.

Ethereum Holders Are Leaning Differently

Short-term holders are regaining influence over Ethereum price action. The MVRV Long/Short Difference measures profitability between long-term and short-term holders. Deeply negative readings signal greater profitability among short-term holders compared to long-term investors.

Toward the end of January, the metric suggested profitability was shifting away from short-term traders. That trend hinted at an improving structure. However, the recent decline reversed that dynamic, restoring short-term holder profits. These investors typically sell quickly, increasing vulnerability to renewed downside pressure.

Ethereum MVRV Long/Short Difference. Source: Santiment

The HODLer net position change metric reveals another shift. Long-term holders previously exhibited steady accumulation. In recent days, the buying pressure has transitioned into distribution, reflecting reduced confidence among strategic investors.

Long-term holder selling adds structural risk. These participants often provide foundational support during downturns. Without renewed accumulation from this cohort, the Ethereum price may struggle to absorb supply. Current data shows limited evidence of strong counterbalancing demand.

Ethereum HODLer Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode ETH Price May Look At Consolidation

Ethereum price trades at $1,983 and remains above the $1,811 support level. Despite this stability, the altcoin recently marked a nine-month low at $1,743. Maintaining $1,811 is critical to prevent deeper technical deterioration.

Given ongoing selling from both short-term and long-term holders, recovery may face resistance near $2,238. Continued weakness could keep ETH trading closer to support rather than challenging overhead barriers. A confirmed breakdown below $1,811 may expose Ethereum to $1,571.

Ethereum Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, reduced selling from short-term holders could ease pressure. If long-term holders resume accumulation, Ethereum may attempt a stronger rebound. A decisive move above $2,238, followed by a rally past $2,509, would invalidate the bearish thesis and improve the medium-term outlook.

Decentralized perpetuals trading platform Lighter saw its native token LIT surge nearly 10% during the early hours of the US session.  

It follows news that it had struck a major revenue-sharing deal with USDC issuer Circle.

Lighter Strikes $920 Million USDC Revenue-Sharing Deal with Circle — A Win for DeFi Traders

LIT, the powering token for the Lighter ecosystem, exploded by nearly 10% on the news, and was trading for $1.46% on the news.

Lighter (LIT) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

The agreement covers approximately $920 million in USDC deposits on Lighter’s platform, marking a significant milestone for the young DeFi exchange.

Under the partnership, interest income generated from Circle’s USDC reserves will be shared between Circle and Lighter.

This aligns with Circle’s broader revenue-sharing model, which it has previously implemented with leading exchanges such as Coinbase and Bybit.

For Lighter, the deal offers a fast and capital-efficient path to grow its yield engine, fund user incentives, and support platform features such as funding rate rebates and rewards programs.

Unlike some of its competitors, Lighter has opted to lean on USDC rather than launching a proprietary stablecoin.

Hyperliquid, for instance, introduced its native stablecoin USDH in late 2025 after a competitive governance auction. The move diverted billions in deposits and yield away from Circle and other stablecoin issuers.

That move allowed Hyperliquid to capture revenue internally and reduce centralization risks, but required significant capital and infrastructure investment.

Lighter Leverages Circle Partnership to Boost Adoption, Liquidity, and LIT Token Sentiment

Lighter’s approach, by contrast, allows the platform to tap directly into Circle’s established reserves while still benefiting from shared yield.

This could accelerate adoption by leveraging Circle’s USDC ecosystem, enabling Lighter to scale more efficiently while delivering value to traders and token holders.

The deal represents a potential win-win scenario:

Circle benefits by locking in a large volume of USDC on a growing DeFi platform, incentivizing adoption and circulation.

Lighter gains access to a steady revenue stream, which could enhance platform sustainability, attract more liquidity, and increase user engagement.

Moving forward, interest will be on on-chain USDC flows to Lighter contracts as this could show early signs of the agreement’s impact on liquidity and token sentiment.

Lighter has been gaining traction in the DeFi perpetuals market, with growing trading volumes, loyalty points programs, and community engagement.

Token listings on popular platforms like Robinhood have also contributed to its growing bullish sentiment.

The revenue-sharing announcement is expected to boost confidence, perhaps further than during its LIT token event in December.

Nevertheless, it is impossible to forget past controversies surrounding Lighter, including allegations of secret token sales.

While official details on the exact share split of USDC interest have not yet been disclosed, even a conservative arrangement could provide a meaningful boost to LIT holders.

Crypto investors are advised to monitor announcements from both Lighter and Circle for updates, as revenue-sharing agreements of this scale can change quickly.

Hedera’s HBAR is outperforming the broader crypto market. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are up around 2% over the past day, HBAR price today has gained nearly 10% over the past week and about 8% in the last 24 hours, trading near $0.096 at press time.

The rally has raised expectations of a breakout. But momentum, volume, and derivatives data suggest risk is rising faster than conviction.

Falling Wedge Breakout Hopes Build, But With A Risk

HBAR has been trading inside a falling wedge pattern since late 2025.

Since early February, HBAR has rebounded from close to the lower boundary of this structure and climbed toward the upper trendline near $0.098. This level has capped the price multiple times and now acts as key resistance.

If HBAR breaks and holds above this zone, the wedge’s measured move points toward an upside of over 50% from current levels. However, momentum is starting to weaken. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures buying and selling strength. When RSI rises, momentum improves. When it weakens, momentum fades.

Between February 6 and February 12, HBAR struggled to move decisively above $0.098 and began forming a potential lower high. At the same time, RSI continued making higher highs.

Building RSI Risk: TradingView

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This creates a hidden bearish divergence. It happens when the price fails to confirm improving momentum. It often signals that buyers are becoming stretched near resistance.

This does not indicate a trend reversal. But it shows that upside efficiency is declining as the price approaches a critical level. The divergence threat passes if the current HBAR price candle touches $0.098, invalidating the lower-high theory.

Money Flow and Derivatives Data Show Rising Risks

Money and leverage indicators reinforce this warning. One key metric is Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. CMF tracks whether large capital is flowing into or out of an asset by combining price and volume. When CMF stays above zero, strong institutional buying is present. When it remains below zero, major inflows are missing.

Between December 31 and February 11, HBAR’s CMF has trended higher while the price trended lower. This divergence supported the recent rebound. CMF has also broken above its descending trendline. But CMF remains below the zero line.

Money Flow Risk: TradingView

This means selling pressure has eased, but strong accumulation has not returned. The rally is still driven mainly by short-term traders rather than large wallets. Derivatives data adds further risk. Open interest measures the total value of active futures contracts. When it rises, leverage in the market increases.

Since February 11, HBAR’s open interest has climbed from about $26.96 million to nearly $29.38 million, an increase of roughly 9% in one day. This jump happened as the price approached resistance. At the same time, funding rates turned sharply positive.

Funding shifted from around -0.018 to near +0.05 within 24 hours. This shows that long positions are building rapidly. There is also a divergence between price and leverage.

HBAR Open Interest: Santiment

The HBAR price formed a local peak on February 8 and another on February 12. The second peak is lower, showing weaker price strength. But open interest made a higher high during the same period. More leverage is entering the market even as the price momentum weakens. This combination often precedes pullbacks. When leverage rises near resistance and momentum fades, even small declines can trigger forced liquidations.

In simple terms, risk-taking is rising while conviction remains weak.

Key Levels Will Decide Whether HBAR Price Breaks Out or Pulls Back

With optimism clashing with weak participation, price levels now matter most. The main upside trigger remains $0.098.

This level aligns with wedge resistance and recent swing highs. A clean break and hold above it would invalidate the bearish divergence and reduce liquidation risk. If that happens, HBAR could target $0.107 first, followed by the $0.145 zone, potentially realizing the wedge target.

That would confirm that real demand has returned. Until then, the rally remains vulnerable. On the downside, $0.090 is the first key support. This level has held multiple times during recent consolidation. A breakdown below it would likely trigger long liquidations.

HBAR Price Analysis: TradingView

Below $0.090, the next major support sits near $0.076. A move to this zone would erase around 20% from current levels and signal that the breakout attempt has failed.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “criminal aggression.” He advocates applying crypto-inspired governance principles to transform Russia’s political system.

His remarks, published ahead of the fourth anniversary of the invasion on February 24, 2026, link blockchain concepts to the long-term security of Europe and Ukraine.

Vitalik Buterin Condemns Aggression Amid Support for Ukraine

The Russo-Canadian innovator directly rejected narratives that frame the conflict as morally ambiguous. He emphasized that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cannot be justified.

Drawing on his Russian heritage and Canadian upbringing, he highlighted the dramatic contrast between:

Ukraine’s institutional improvements over the past decade and

Russia’s escalating repression, imperial ambitions, and military aggression.

“Ukraine needs a lot of help — to continue defending itself and to minimize human suffering from attacks on residential buildings, the energy system, etc.,” Buterin wrote, urging sustained international support to protect civilians and maintain Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

Buterin also criticized Western narratives that downplay Russian responsibility, asserting that Moscow’s leadership currently lacks incentive to pursue peace.

Based on this, he suggests that only continued military and economic pressure could compel meaningful negotiations.

Applying Crypto Principles to Political Reform

Drawing parallels from his experience in Ethereum and blockchain governance, Buterin proposed that long-term reform in Russia could benefit from:

Decentralized governance

Quadratic voting, and

Digital democracy

These mechanisms, already explored in crypto ecosystems, are designed to spread power, prevent authoritarian consolidation, and allow citizens to influence decisions proportionally.

“The goal is to build a country that, when the objective is improving people’s lives, will be maximally strong, but when the goal is oppressing minorities or aggression against neighbors, will be maximally uncoordinated and weak,” he explained.

Buterin emphasized that decentralization is not merely a conceptual exercise; it could guide real-world political transitions.

Systems like https://pol.is, which enable large-scale consensus-building and public deliberation, could help identify shared priorities among citizens and inform policy without relying solely on traditional hierarchical structures.

The remarks come only weeks after internet providers began blocking access at the network level, barring several crypto news sites on Russian home internet connections.

Vision for a “Beautiful Russia of the Future”

Nonetheless, beyond immediate conflict resolution, Buterin argued that European and Ukrainian security depends on fundamentally transforming Russia.

He envisioned a state in which internal governance structures prioritize public welfare and economic prosperity over military aggression, thereby reducing the likelihood of future conflicts.

Buterin stressed that this transformation requires new leadership and novel ideas within Russia’s political opposition.

Drawing lessons from crypto, he noted that entrenched systems rarely yield progress without fresh strategies, experimentation, and inclusive participation. He framed this approach as a two-step process:

First, Ukraine must receive every possible form of support to weaken the Russian military and compel a ceasefire.

Second, after Putin, the focus should shift to empowering moderate factions in Russia willing to adopt reform, peace, and decentralized governance principles.

Buterin’s proposal reflects a growing intersection between technological governance models and international politics.

While blockchain-inspired methods have been tested primarily in digital networks, applying these concepts to national governance represents a radical, untested approach.

Nonetheless, the Ethereum co-founder’s perspective offers a novel lens on conflict resolution and state-building. It suggests that beyond diplomacy or military pressure, systemic innovation may be essential for lasting peace.

Berachain price stunned the crypto market after a sudden and sharp rally. BERA surged nearly 210% during Wednesday’s intraday high before pulling back. 

The explosive move triggered widespread interest, yet on-chain data suggests the rally was largely speculation-driven rather than supported by sustained capital inflows.

What Caused the BERA Price To Rally?

The primary catalyst behind the BERA rally appears to be a major short squeeze. Funding rates fluctuated violently as bearish traders were caught off guard. Reports showed funding falling as low as negative 5,900%, signaling an extreme imbalance in derivatives positioning.

As shorts were liquidated, trading volume surged to $2.23 billion within 24 hours. This wave of forced buying amplified volatility and accelerated price appreciation. Short squeezes can create explosive upside, but they rarely provide long-term structural support for crypto price trends.

BERA Trading Volume. Source: Coinglass Why Should BERA Traders Be On Alert

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator offers critical insight into Berachain’s macro momentum. Despite the dramatic price increase, CMF remained below the zero line. This reading signals that capital outflows continued to dominate the asset during the rally.

Additionally, a bearish divergence formed on the chart. While the BERA price printed a higher high, the CMF posted a lower high. Such divergences often precede corrections, as weakening inflows fail to validate rising price action. This setup increases the probability of downside pressure returning.

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BERA CMF. Source: TradingView

Derivatives data suggest that long traders may now face elevated risk. As price momentum weakens, leveraged long positions could become vulnerable to liquidation. Market heat maps indicate a significant liquidation cluster just above $0.620.

A move below $0.626 could trigger approximately $5.26 million in long liquidations. Cascading liquidations often accelerate downside pressure in volatile altcoins. If selling intensifies, retail traders holding aggressive long exposure may experience amplified losses.

BERA Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass BERA Price Could Face Correction

BERA price trades at $0.823 at publication after rallying nearly 210% during Wednesday’s intraday high. As the spike faded, bullish expectations cooled rapidly. Price retracement suggests that momentum traders have begun locking in gains.

Given the speculative nature of the surge and the bearish CMF divergence, further downside appears likely. A confirmed break below $0.795 support could send BERA toward $0.620. That decline would activate previously identified liquidation clusters and potentially extend losses toward $0.438.

BERA Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, renewed investor confidence could stabilize the price near $0.795. If inflows strengthen and speculative pressure subsides, BERA may rebound toward $1.077. A sustained move above that level would invalidate the bearish thesis and restore upward momentum.

Chainlink (LINK), one of the leading oracle platforms, has struggled to find a recovery throughout February. Despite multiple pieces of positive news, selling pressure has remained persistent.

As price action reaches a support level that has held for six years, February could be the decisive moment for LINK to enter a new price phase.

Positive Developments in February Fail to Offset Selling Pressure

Price data shows that the current level around $8.4 aligns with a long-term support trendline that has held since 2020. This makes LINK’s price behavior in the coming days a key reference point for analysts when forming longer-term projections.

Chainlink (LINK) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Recent signals from strategic partnerships could, in theory, strengthen LINK’s appeal.

Robinhood has launched a public testnet for Robinhood Chain, a Layer 2 network on Arbitrum designed for tokenized assets. More importantly, Chainlink serves as the platform’s oracle provider. The integration allows developers to leverage Chainlink’s data feeds, interoperability, and compliance standards to support advanced tokenization use cases.

Similarly, Ondo Finance, a platform focused on tokenized real-world assets, has selected Chainlink as its official data provider. The goal is to accelerate the adoption of tokenized stocks and ETFs. This collaboration enables tokenized U.S. securities to operate across Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem, secured by institutional-grade data.

“Using Chainlink, DeFi protocols can now price Ondo Global Markets assets with best-in-class accuracy, manage positions safely, and provide users with more protection during volatile market conditions,” Ondo Finance stated.

The benefits from the Robinhood and Ondo partnerships have not translated into an immediate price increase. Weak overall market sentiment appears to be the main constraint. LINK showed no clear rebound from the six-year support level when these announcements were released.

On another front, exchange-side selling pressure has intensified. Exchange Inflow (Top 10) rose sharply in February 2026.

Chainlink Exchange Inflow (Top 10). Source: CryptoQuant

This metric measures the total amount of coins from the top 10 inflow transactions to exchanges. Elevated values indicate that large volumes of LINK are being deposited at once. This behavior often signals rising sell-side pressure.

A similar spike occurred in September last year. LINK’s price began to decline shortly afterward. The metric has now started rising again. This trend may suggest that some large holders are preparing to liquidate, adding to downward price pressure.

Sustained selling pressure could push LINK below its six-year support. However, partnerships with Robinhood and Ondo still provide long-term optimism. A meaningful recovery will likely require a more favorable market environment to align with Chainlink’s underlying fundamentals.

The Cardano price is up around 3% over the past 24 hours, trading near $0.26 at press time. This stands out as the broader crypto market remains mostly flat. On the chart, ADA is starting to form a familiar rebound structure that has led to rallies before. But on-chain and derivatives data suggest this setup may lack strong backing.

This creates a clear conflict between improving technical signals and weak investor conviction.

Rebound Pattern Is Forming Again — Just Like In December

Since early December, Cardano has been building a familiar structure. Between December 1 and February 11, ADA made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, made higher lows. RSI measures momentum by tracking buying and selling strength. When the price weakens while the RSI improves, it indicates that selling pressure is fading.

This is called a bullish divergence. It often appears near short-term bottoms.

The same pattern formed between December 1 and December 31, 2025. At that time, ADA printed lower lows, RSI made higher lows, and the price rebounded soon after. That rebound pushed Cardano up by about 32% before sellers returned.

Reversal Setup: TradingView

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Now, the structure looks similar again. On paper, this suggests that downside momentum is slowing.

But technical patterns only work when large participants support them. This time, that support is missing.

Whales and Derivatives Are Not Backing This Reversal Attempt

The biggest difference between December and now is whale behavior. In December, large Cardano holders were accumulating aggressively. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA increased their supply from around 13.15 billion to nearly 13.5 billion. That steady buying helped fuel the rebound.

This time, the opposite is happening. Since mid-January, these same whales have been reducing exposure. On January 14, they held around 13.67 billion ADA. That figure has now dropped closer to 13.3 billion. The overall trend has shifted from accumulation to distribution.

ADA Whales: Santiment

Instead of preparing for upside, large holders are slowly exiting. That weakens the entire reversal structure.

Derivatives data tells the same story. Open interest, which measures the total value of active futures positions, is far lower than it was in early January, when the Cardano price last peaked. On January 5, open interest peaked near $884 million. It is now close to $407 million, down more than 50%.

Cardano’s Open Interest Dips: Coinglass

This matters because strong rallies usually need leverage participation. When open interest is rising, it means traders are committing capital to directional moves. When it is falling, momentum tends to fade quickly. Funding rates are also only mildly positive. That shows traders are not aggressively betting on upside. Nor is there enough short leverage power to trigger a short squeeze.

Funding Rate: Coinglass

In simple terms, whales are not buying, and derivatives traders are not committing. That leaves the rebound dependent on spot buyers alone.

Spot Flows Are Turning Negative, Keeping Pressure On the Cardano Price

Spot market data explains why confidence remains weak.

One key indicator is Exchange Netflow. This tracks whether coins are moving into or out of exchanges. When netflow is negative, coins are leaving exchanges, which usually suggests accumulation. When netflow turns positive, it shows increasing selling pressure. Between February 7 and February 11, Cardano saw mild outflows. That suggested some early buying interest.

But on February 12 (post the divergence flashing on the chart), netflow turned positive again, with inflows near $1.16 million. That means traders have started moving ADA back onto exchanges to sell. This shift is important.

Spot Flows: Coinglass

It shows that even short-term buyers are not committed. Instead of holding through the setup, they are taking quick exits. When spot selling returns this early, rebounds usually struggle. With whales absent, derivatives weak, and spot flows turning negative, conviction remains low.

From a price perspective, $0.28 is now the first level that matters. A clean break above $0.28 would show that buyers are finally gaining control. If that happens, ADA could attempt a move toward $0.32 and possibly $0.35 (a 30%+ upmove), similar to the December rebound’s size.

But without stronger support, that scenario remains unlikely.

Cardano Price Analysis: TradingView

On the downside, $0.24 is the first key support. A sustained break below this level would expose $0.22. If $0.22 fails, the entire rebound structure would be invalidated. Right now, Cardano is caught between improving technical momentum and weakening investor confidence.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee as the crypto market may be heading into another turbulent stretch. Analysts are warning that more volatility could lie ahead as macro uncertainty builds and investor sentiment weakens, setting the stage for a potentially decisive moment before any meaningful recovery begins.

Crypto News of the Day: Standard Chartered Warns of Final Capitulation, Sees Bitcoin Falling to $50,000 Before Recovery

Standard Chartered is warning that crypto markets may face one final wave of selling pressure before staging a broader recovery. According to the bank, Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 in the months ahead.

In a note to clients, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s Head of Digital Asset Research, said the near-term outlook remains challenging amid intensifying macroeconomic headwinds and weakening ETF flows.

“I think we are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices in the next few months,” Kendrick wrote. “The macro backdrop is unlikely to provide support until we near Warsh taking over at the Fed.”

According to Kendrick, the current correction has further to run before markets find a durable bottom. On the downside, he expects:

“BTC to USD 50,000 or just below, ETH to USD 1,400.”

Despite the bearish short-term call, Kendrick framed these levels as strategic entry points rather than structural breakdowns.

“They will be buy levels, for end-of-year forecasts of $100,000 (BTC) and $4,000 (ETH). Take care out there.”

The revised projections mark a notable reduction from the bank’s previous targets of $150,000 for Bitcoin and $7,500 for Ethereum, reported in a recent US Crypto News publication.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Still, Standard Chartered maintains a constructive long-term view once the current drawdown plays out.

Macro Headwinds and ETF Outflows

Kendrick emphasized that macroeconomic conditions are weighing heavily on digital assets. While the US economy may be softening, markets are not pricing in imminent rate cuts.

“The macro risk backdrop is also becoming more challenging – the US economy may be softening, but markets expect no further rate cuts until Warsh takes over as Fed chair in June,” he said.

With liquidity support likely delayed, investor behavior is shifting. The Standard Chartered executive observes that holdings of digital asset ETFs have fallen (albeit in an orderly manner), and the average Bitcoin ETF holding is now down around 25%.

“Against this backdrop, we think ETF holders are more likely to sell, rather than buy the dip, for now.”

The decline in ETF holdings is particularly significant given that spot Bitcoin ETFs were a key driver of inflows during the last rally. A sustained period of redemptions could amplify downside volatility if sentiment deteriorates further.

A More Resilient Market Structure with Recovery Path Into 2026

Despite forecasting further losses, Standard Chartered argues that the current sell-off differs materially from previous crypto downturns.

“Recent price action for digital assets has been challenging, to say the least. We expect further declines in the near term and are lowering our forecasts across the asset class. However, we expect prices to recover after hitting their lows in the next few months, and our long-term constructive view remains intact,” Kendrick said.

Importantly, he added that this sell-off has been less extreme than previous ones and has not seen the collapse of any digital asset platforms (as was the case in 2022). This, according to Kenrick, suggests that crypto as an asset class is maturing and becoming more resilient.

That structural resilience may ultimately support a stronger recovery phase once macro conditions stabilize and liquidity expectations shift.

Looking beyond the expected capitulation phase, Standard Chartered anticipates a rebound through the remainder of 2026.

“Once the lows have been reached, we expect the asset class to recover for the rest of 2026,” Kendrick said.

The bank now forecasts Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $4,000 by year-end 2026, with other digital assets likely to “broadly follow the majors.”

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Standard Chartered projects the Bitcoin price falling to $50,000 before recovery. Such a move would constitute a 26% drop below current levels.

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

MicroStrategy plans to issue more perpetual preferred stock: What it means for MSTR.

Four signs that Bitcoin is in the early stages of a bear market: How long could it last?

Elon Musk reveals X Money may launch soon, fueling crypto speculation.

Bitcoin whale accumulation resembles 2022 structure – Can it revive BTC price?

Solana long-term holder capitulation reaches a 3-year high as price nears losing $80.

A crypto lender has halted withdrawals: Is this another FTX moment?

XRP flashes historic rebound hint, but buying drops 85% — What’s next for price?

Crypto market sentiment falls into extreme fear: What does it mean for investors?

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

CompanyClose As of February 11Pre-Market OverviewStrategy (MSTR)$126.14$127.54 (+1.11%)Coinbase (COIN)$153.20$154.29 (+0.71%)Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)$20.40$20.46 (+0.29%)MARA Holdings (MARA)$7.56$7.64 (+1.06%)Riot Platforms (RIOT)$14.80$14.89 (+0.41%)Core Scientific (CORZ)$18.09$18.19 (+0.55%)

Crypto equities market open race: Google Finance

Solana price remains under sustained pressure, extending a three-week downtrend amid weak investor support and bearish macro conditions. 

SOL trading near $80, reflecting declining demand across the broader crypto market. Adding to concerns, long-term holders are now showing signs of weakening conviction.

Solana Profitable Supply Falls To Multi-Year Low

On-chain data shows that Solana’s supply in profit has dropped to 15%. This marks the lowest level since November 2022. A falling profitable supply typically indicates that most holders are underwater, which often reduces the incentive to sell further.

Historically, such low profitability has coincided with stabilization phases. Selling pressure tends to ease when fewer investors remain in profit. However, current conditions differ due to broad market weakness and deteriorating long-term holder sentiment, limiting the usual recovery effect.

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Solana Supply In Profit. Source: Glassnode

A key metric highlighting the shift is Liveliness, which measures long-term holder activity. The recent spike in Liveliness signals increased token movement from previously dormant wallets. This behavior suggests Solana LTHs are distributing rather than accumulating during the downturn.

When LTHs begin selling, macro momentum often weakens further. Their participation typically reflects high conviction. A sustained rise in Liveliness indicates eroding confidence, which can amplify bearish trends and reduce the probability of a swift Solana price recovery.

Solana Liveliness. Source: Glassnode Why Are LTHs Selling?

Signs of LTHs selling became evident toward the end of January. The long-term holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, fell below zero. This shift marked capitulation, meaning long-term holders moved into aggregate losses.

The last time Solana LTH’s NUPL dropped below zero was in May 2022. Capitulation at that time triggered widespread distribution before eventual stabilization. Selling by long-term investors during loss phases often reflects psychological exhaustion rather than tactical repositioning.

Solana LTH NUPL. Source: Glassnode

LTHs capitulated on January 24, yet the spike in Liveliness appeared roughly a week later. This delay suggests holders initially waited for a rebound. But as the Solana price continued to decline, those investors ultimately sold. If this dynamic persists, recovery prospects may weaken further.

SOL Price Downtrend Continues

Solana price trades near $80 and remains within a defined downtrend that began three weeks ago. SOL is holding just above the $79 support level. Sustained weakness in investor demand increases the risk of a breakdown below this threshold.

If LTH selling continues and the downtrend remains intact, SOL could lose $79 support. A confirmed breakdown may send Solana toward $70, which aligns with the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level. That zone represents the next major technical support.

Solana Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, a halt in long-term holder selling could improve momentum. If SOL breaches the descending trendline and clears $88 resistance, recovery may accelerate. A move toward $95 would invalidate the bearish thesis and signal renewed bullish strength in Solana price action.

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 23.4% so far this year, after declining more than 6% in 2025. Prices have remained under sustained pressure, with the leading cryptocurrency currently trading at $67,214.

Amid this, a key question continues to weigh on market sentiment: when will the Bitcoin downtrend end? Four key signals suggest that the asset may still be in the early stages of a bear market, raising the possibility of further downside.

Capital Flight Confirms Bearish Sentiment Shift 

Investor flow data sends the first warning sign. CryptoQuant data showed new investor inflows have turned negative. An analyst said this indicates the ongoing sell-off is not being absorbed by new capital entering the market.

Bitcoin New Investor Flows Turn Negative. Source: CryptoQuant

The analyst explained that in bull markets, capital tends to accelerate during price drawdowns, as investors treat dips as buying opportunities. In contrast, the early stages of bear markets are often marked by capital withdrawal amid weakness.

“Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows. Without renewed inflows, upside moves remain corrective. This behavior is consistent with early bear market conditions: contracting liquidity and narrowing participation,” the analyst added.

Technical Pattern Signals Room for Another Leg Lower in Bitcoin

Crypto analyst Jelle pointed to historical cycle data to frame the current downside risk. He explained that in previous major bear markets, price bottomed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement measured from the prior cycle peak.

The earliest cycle saw a significantly deeper move, with Bitcoin falling roughly 64% beyond the 0.618 level. In later cycles, however, the depth of those breakdowns moderated. 

The most recent bear market bottom formed about 45% below that retracement threshold, reflecting a pattern of progressively shallower declines.

“0.618 from the current cycle high sits at $57,000. If Bitcoin bottoms just 30% below the 0.618 retracement this time around, we’re still looking at $42,000,” the analyst remarked.

Bitcoin Bottom Prediction. Source: X/Jelle

This suggests the price may fall further. Additionally, other experts have previously forecasted that Bitcoin could find a bottom even below $40,000.

Market Cycle Indicator Points to Further Downside Risk

In addition, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which tracks broader market phases, signals that bearish conditions began in October 2025. However, the metric has not yet entered what is typically classified as an extreme bear phase.

In previous cycles, the indicator has moved into the dark-blue zone, suggesting that lower levels may still lie ahead.

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Source: CryptoQuant Whales Stack BTC, Yet Recovery May Take Time

Finally, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin whales have been accumulating during the recent dip, as exchange outflows continue to rise. The 30-day simple moving average of exchange outflows has climbed to 3.2%.

This pattern closely mirrors the first half of 2022. Although whale accumulation is often interpreted as a constructive signal, history suggests caution. In the previous cycle, a broader recovery did not materialize until early 2023.

The similarity in structure suggests that while smart money may be positioning, it does not necessarily mean an immediate rebound is imminent. Instead, the data implies that the market could remain under pressure in the near term, even as long-term holders continue to build exposure.

Separately, Kaiko analysis suggested that Bitcoin still appears to be tracking its traditional four-year cycle. Based on that framework, the firm stated,

“The four-year cycle framework predicts we should be at the 30% mark.”

Taken together, these four indicators point to the possibility that Bitcoin could remain under pressure. However, when the bear market will end remains a point of division among experts.

Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, said it is unlikely that Bitcoin will see a V-shaped recovery before the summer of 2026. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, has also suggested that the current bearish phase could end in Q3 2026. 

In contrast, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has expressed a more optimistic view, indicating that the end of the crypto winter could be approaching.

As part of the strategy to turn X (formerly Twitter) into a “super app” or Everything App, a key missing piece, X Money, is beginning to take shape.

X aims to be more than a social media platform. Elon Musk wants to transform it into a personal finance game-changer. Users could handle messaging, shopping, and full personal asset management in one place.

Why Are Crypto Investors Excited About X Money?

During an xAI “All Hands” presentation in February 2026, Elon Musk revealed that X Money is already running in internal testing among X employees. A limited rollout to users is expected within the next one to two months.

X Money has secured money transmitter licenses in more than 40 US states. It also established strategic partnerships with major payment giants such as Visa last year.

“For X Money, we actually had X Money live in closed beta within the company, and we expect in the next month or two to go to a limited external beta and then to go worldwide to all X users. And this is really intended to be the place where all the money is, the central source of all monetary transactions. So it’s really going to be a game-changer,” Elon Musk said.

Musk aims to push monthly active users past 600 million and ultimately reach 1 billion. Analysts compare this ambition to building an everything app similar to China’s WeChat.

As a result, X Money represents a major opportunity for any crypto project that accepts it as a payment method or is indirectly connected to the platform.

However, X Money has never confirmed that crypto will be used as a payment option. Investors, meanwhile, continue to build their own narratives.

The first speculation centers on Dogecoin (DOGE). This meme coin closely aligns with Elon Musk’s personal brand. The theory stems from Musk’s past comments suggesting DOGE could be suitable for micropayments.

The second speculation involves XRP. This hypothesis is linked to Cross River Bank, a financial partner working with X to process payment flows. Since 2014, Cross River Bank has integrated Ripple’s protocol to enable real-time cross-border payments between the US and Western Europe.

Despite these narratives, DOGE and XRP prices showed no significant reaction to news of X Money’s upcoming launch.

In the coming months, once X Money officially goes live as planned, its impact on crypto markets and the global financial system may become clearer.

Bitcoin price remains under pressure, extending its recent decline without a confirmed reversal. BTC trades near $66,996 at publication, reflecting cautious sentiment across the crypto market. 

Growing uncertainty has pushed many investors toward selling, though one major cohort is actively attempting to stabilize price action.

Bitcoin Holders Are Underwater

The Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, highlights rising skepticism among Bitcoin investors. SOPR measures the ratio between the USD value of sold coins and their original purchase price. When the indicator remains above 1, investors are selling at a profit.

Recently, SOPR has trended closer to or below 1. Readings below 1 signal that investors are selling at a loss. This behavior often reflects fear-driven capitulation rather than calculated distribution.

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Bitcoin SOPR. Source: Glassnode

Historically, extended periods of SOPR below 1 have coincided with local bottoms. Loss realization can mark exhaustion among weak hands. However, sustained negative readings also confirm fragile sentiment and reduced short-term conviction in Bitcoin price recovery.

Whales Arrive To Bitcoin’s Rescue

While smaller investors sell, Bitcoin whales are rotating capital back into BTC. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have accumulated more than 70,000 BTC since the start of the month. This accumulation equals roughly $4.6 billion at current prices.

Such large-scale buying provides structural support. Whale demand appears to be offsetting part of the panic selling. Without this absorption, the Bitcoin price could have experienced deeper downside acceleration during recent volatility.

Bitcoin Whale Supply. Source: Santiment

Exchange whale outflows provide further insight into macro positioning. This metric tracks the percentage of exchange balances moving to large entities daily. Since Bitcoin dropped below $80,000, the 30-day simple moving average has climbed to 3.2%.

This pattern resembles the structure seen in the first half of 2022. During that period, whales accumulated in waves before the next bull market began. Their steady withdrawals signaled long-term positioning rather than short-term speculation.

Bitcoin Exchange Whale Outflow. Source: Glassnode

However, historical parallels require caution. In 2022, price consolidation persisted for months before recovery gained traction. Whale accumulation does not guarantee immediate upside momentum. Broader macro conditions and liquidity cycles still influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.

BTC Price Finds Support

Bitcoin price trades at $66,996, holding slightly above $66,749 support. The recent rejection near $70,610 reflects psychological resistance tied to profit-taking. Sellers appear active near that zone, limiting upward continuation attempts.

In the short term, BTC must defend $65,000 while consolidating below $70,610. Sustained stabilization could build momentum for a breakout. A confirmed recovery would require reclaiming $78,656 as a support level.

Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If whale accumulation slows, downside risk may intensify. Loss of current support could send Bitcoin toward $63,185. A deeper slide toward $60,000 would invalidate the bullish thesis and reinforce the broader corrective trend.