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Altcoins are showing sharply mixed signals this week, with explosive rallies colliding against deepening corrections across the market. While some tokens are capturing attention with a powerful breakout setup, others continue to struggle near fresh lows.

Thus, BeInCrypto has analysed three such altcoins which investors should keep an eye on over the weekend.

Pippin (PIPPIN)

PIPPIN ranks among the best-performing altcoins this week, surging 203% over seven days. The meme coin trades at $0.492 at publication, remaining below the $0.514 resistance level. Strong momentum has fueled speculative interest as traders monitor continuation signals.

Technically, PIPPIN is breaking out of a descending broadening wedge, a pattern projecting a 221% rally. A confirmed breakout requires flipping $0.600 into support. While the projected upside is significant, the practical target remains clearing the $0.720 all-time high.

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PIPPIN Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If bullish momentum fades or macro conditions weaken, downside risk increases. A drop below $0.449 support could send PIPPIN toward $0.372. Such a move would invalidate the bullish thesis and negate the wedge breakout structure.

Aptos (APT)

APT price has declined 12.6% over the past week, forming two new all-time lows during this period. The altcoin trades at $0.899 at publication, remaining below the $1.00 psychological level. Persistent weakness reflects continued bearish momentum across the broader crypto market.

The Money Flow Index currently sits below the 20.0 threshold, placing APT in the oversold zone. Such readings often signal selling saturation and potential accumulation. If the MFI rises above 20.0 and buying pressure strengthens, reclaiming $1.029 could confirm recovery momentum.

APT Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If bearish momentum persists, downside risk remains elevated. Continued selling pressure may push APT below current levels. A break lower could result in another all-time low near $0.800, reinforcing the prevailing negative trend.

Kite (KITE)

KITE is another altcoin to watch this weekend as it has emerged as a strong contrast to weaker altcoins, consistently forming new all-time highs this week. The token trades at $0.197 at publication, marking a 53% weekly gain. Sustained upside momentum reflects strong investor demand and improving crypto market sentiment.

KITE reached a fresh all-time high of $0.210 today, reinforcing bullish technical structure. Persistent capital inflows appear to be driving the rally. If buying pressure continues, the price could extend toward $0.231, supported by strong volume and positive short-term momentum.

KITE Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, overbought conditions could trigger profit-taking. If buying interest begins to fade, KITE may retrace toward the $0.163 support level. A decline to that zone would invalidate the bullish thesis and signal weakening upside momentum.

A US-based structured-credit firm is pushing TradFi boundaries by integrating crypto into real-world lending. Newmarket Capital, managing nearly $3 billion in assets, is pioneering hybrid mortgage and commercial loans that leverage Bitcoin (BTC) alongside conventional real estate as collateral.

Its affiliate, Battery Finance, is leading the charge in creating financial structures that leverage digital assets to support credit without requiring borrowers to liquidate holdings.

Bitcoin to Reshape Mortgages and Real-World Lending

The initiative targets borrowers who are crypto-asset holders, including tech-savvy Millennials and Gen Z. It provides a path to financing that preserves investment upside while enabling access to traditional credit markets.

By combining income-producing real estate with Bitcoin, the firm seeks to mitigate volatility risk while offering borrowers a novel lending solution.

According to Andrew Hohns, Founder and CEO of Newmarket Capital and Battery Finance, the model involves income-producing properties, such as commercial real estate, paired with a portion of the borrower’s Bitcoin holdings as supplemental collateral.

Bitcoin is valued as part of the overall loan package, providing lenders with an asset that is liquid, divisible, and transparent, unlike real estate alone.

“We’re creating credit structures that produce income, but by integrating measured amounts of Bitcoin, these loans participate in appreciation over time, offering benefits traditional models don’t provide,” Hohns explained in a session on the Coin Stories Podcast.

Early deals demonstrate the concept, with Battery Finance refinancing a $12.5 million multifamily property using both the building itself and approximately 20 BTC as part of a hybrid collateral package.

Borrowers gain access to capital without triggering taxable events from selling crypto, while lenders gain additional downside protection.

Institutional-Grade Bitcoin Collateral

Unlike pure Bitcoin-backed loans, which remain experimental and niche, Newmarket’s model is institutional-grade:

It is fully underwritten

Income-focused, and

Legally structured for US regulatory compliance.

Bitcoin in these structures is treated as a collateral complement rather than a standalone payment method; mortgage and loan repayments remain in USD.

“Bitcoin adds flexibility and transparency to traditional lending, but the foundation is still income-producing assets,” Hohns said. “It’s a bridge between digital scarcity and conventional credit risk frameworks.”

The approach builds on a broader trend of integrating real-world assets (RWA) with digital holdings. In June 2025, federal agencies like the FHFA signaled in mid-2025 that crypto could be considered for mortgage qualification,

However, private lenders like Newmarket Capital are moving faster, operationalizing hybrid collateral structures while adhering to existing regulatory frameworks.

Newmarket and Battery Finance’s work illustrates how Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies can interface with TradFi as tools to unlock new forms of lending and credit.

Still, challenges exist. BeInCrypto reported that despite Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s plans to accept Bitcoin as mortgage collateral, there is a catch.

The Bitcoin must be held on regulated exchanges. Bitcoin in self-custody or private wallets won’t be recognized.

This raises concerns about financial sovereignty and centralized control. Policy limits Bitcoin’s use in mortgage lending to custodial, state-visible platforms, excluding decentralized storage.

“This isn’t about adoption vs. resistance. It’s about adoption with conditions. You can play— …but only if your Bitcoin plays by their rules. Rules designed for control…As adoption deepens, pressure will mount for lenders to recognize properly held Bitcoin—not just coins on an exchange…Eventually, the most secure form of money will unlock the most flexible capital,” one user remarked.

Nevertheless, while this innovation is not a solution to housing affordability, it represents a meaningful step toward mainstream adoption of crypto in real-world finance.

XRP price has struggled to recover in recent days, raising concerns about a potential repeat of the 2021-2022 bear market.

While weakness persists, a recent development involving Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse could shift sentiment.

XRP May Not Imitate The Past

Brad Garlinghouse has joined the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Innovation Advisory Committee. This appointment marks a significant milestone for Ripple and the broader XRP ecosystem. The same regulatory environment that challenged Ripple for nearly five years is now seeking industry input.

For XRP supporters, this signals growing regulatory normalization. Engagement with the CFTC may enhance Ripple’s credibility in US policy discussions. Constructive dialogue could ease uncertainty and reduce the long-term legal overhang that previously weighed on the XRP price.

Recently realized profit-and-loss data show a spike in sales. Some observers compare this activity to early signals seen before the 2022 bear market. However, in 2022, sustained distribution lasted nearly four months. Current selling lacks that duration and intensity, reducing the probability of a prolonged downturn for XRP.

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XRP Realized Profit/Loss. Source: Glassnode Selling Exists, But It’s Not a Concern

Exchange balance data suggests selling pressure remains measured. Roughly 100 million XRP moved to exchanges over the past 10 days, valued at $130 million. While notable, the scale does not indicate widespread panic.

In November 2025, 130 million XRP was sold within 72 hours. That episode reflected sharper urgency among holders. Compared to that event, current flows appear controlled and less aggressive.

XRP Exchange Balance. Source: Glassnode

Moderate selling combined with positive regulatory developments could stabilize sentiment. If distribution does not accelerate, XRP may absorb supply without severe downside extension. Market participants are watching closely for confirmation through on-chain metrics.

XRP Has Room To Recover

The liquidation heatmap shows limited immediate obstacles to recovery. XRP faces its next major resistance between $1.78 and $1.80. This zone represents a potential profit-taking area rather than an immediate structural ceiling.

Absence of dense liquidation clusters below current levels reduces short-term risk of cascading sell-offs. If momentum improves, XRP has room to advance before encountering significant overhead supply. That technical flexibility supports a cautiously constructive outlook.

XRP CBD Heatmap. Source: Glassnode XRP Price Needs To Bounce Back

XRP trades at $1.35 and is slipping below the $1.36 support level. The next key support lies near $1.27, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Despite recent weakness, broader factors suggest a balanced risk profile.

Garlinghouse’s CFTC appointment may improve investor confidence. If XRP reclaims $1.51, a recovery rally could unfold. Sustained strength above that threshold may drive price toward the supply zone above $1.76.

XRP Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

However, a breakdown below $1.27 would shift momentum decisively. Panic selling could intensify if support fails. A drop toward $1.11 would invalidate the bullish thesis and extend the current corrective phase.

Ethereum is trying to stabilize after weeks of heavy selling. The price is holding near the $1,950 zone, up around 6% from its recent low. At the same time, the biggest Ethereum whales have started accumulating aggressively.

But short-term sellers and derivatives traders remain cautious, creating a growing tug-of-war around the next move.

Biggest Ethereum Whales Accumulate as Bullish Divergence Stays Intact

On-chain data shows that the largest Ethereum holders are positioning for a rebound. Since February 9, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH have increased their holdings from around 5.17 million ETH to nearly 6.27 million ETH. That is an addition of more than 1.1 million ETH, worth roughly $2 billion at current prices.

Ethereum Whales: Santiment

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This accumulation aligns with a bullish technical signal on the 12-hour chart.

Between January 25 and February 12, Ethereum’s price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. When price falls, but RSI rises, it often signals weakening selling pressure.

This bullish divergence suggests downside momentum is fading.

Bullish Divergence: TradingView

The structure remains valid as long as Ethereum holds above $1,890, as the same signal flashed even on February 11 and still seems to be holding. A breakdown below this level would invalidate the divergence for now and weaken the rebound case.

For now, whales appear to be betting that this support will hold.

Short-Term Holders Are Selling?

While large investors are accumulating, short-term holders are behaving very differently.

The Spent Coins Age Band for the 7-day to 30-day cohort has surged sharply. Since February 9 (the same time when the whale pickup started), this metric has risen from around 14,000 to nearly 107,000, an increase of more than 660%. This indicator tracks how many recently acquired coins are being moved. Rising values usually signal possible profit-taking and distribution.

ETH Coins: Santiment

In simple terms, short-term traders are exiting positions. This pattern appeared earlier in February as well. On February 5, a spike in short-term coin activity occurred near $2,140. Within one day, Ethereum dropped by around 13%.

That history shows how aggressive selling from this group can quickly reverse moves. As long as short-term holders remain active sellers, upside moves are likely to face resistance.

Derivatives Data Shows Heavy Bearish Positioning

Derivatives markets are reinforcing this cautious outlook. Current liquidation data shows nearly $3.06 billion in short positions stacked against only about $755 million in long leverage. This creates a heavily bearish imbalance with almost 80% of the market betting on the short side.

Shorts Dominate: Coinglass

On one hand, this setup creates fuel for a potential short squeeze if prices rise. On the other hand, it shows that most traders still expect further weakness. This keeps momentum muted but keeps the bounce hope alive if the whale buying pushes the prices up, even a little bit, crossing past key clusters.

On-chain cost basis data helps explain why Ethereum struggles to break higher. Around $1,980, roughly 1.58% of the circulating supply, was acquired. Near $2,020, another 1.23% of supply sits at breakeven. These zones represent large groups of holders waiting to exit without losses.

Cost Basis Cluster: Glassnode

When price approaches these levels, selling pressure increases as investors try to recover capital. This has repeatedly capped recent bounces. Only a strong leverage-driven move or short squeeze would likely be powerful enough to push through these supply clusters.

Until then, these zones remain major barriers.

Key Ethereum Price Levels To Track Now

With whales buying and sellers resisting, Ethereum price levels now matter more than narratives.

On the upside, the first major resistance sits near $2,010. A clean 12-hour close above this level would increase the probability of short liquidations. And it sits near the key supply cluster.

If that happens, Ethereum could target $2,140 next, a strong resistance zone with multiple touchpoints. It also sits around 10% from the current levels. On the downside, $1,890 remains the critical support. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish divergence and signal renewed downside pressure. Below that, the next major support sits near $1,740.

Ethereum Price Analysis: TradingView

As long as Ethereum holds above $1,890 and continues testing $2,010, the rebound structure remains intact. A sustained breakdown below support would cancel the current recovery attempt.

Cryptocurrency flows to services linked with suspected human trafficking surged 85% year over year in 2025.

The findings come from a new report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, which highlighted that the intersection of cryptocurrency and suspected human trafficking expanded markedly last year.

Which Crypto Assets Are Most Used in Suspected Human Trafficking Networks?

The report outlined four primary categories of suspected crypto-facilitated human trafficking. This includes Telegram-based “international escort” services, forced labor recruitment linked to scam compounds, prostitution networks, and child sexual abuse material vendors (CSAM). 

“The intersection of cryptocurrency and suspected human trafficking intensified in 2025, with total transaction volume reaching hundreds of millions of dollars across identified services, an 85% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The dollar amounts significantly understate the human toll of these crimes, where the true cost is measured in lives impacted rather than money transferred,” Chainalysis wrote.

According to the report, payment methods varied across categories. International escort services and prostitution networks used stablecoins.

“The ‘international escort services are tightly integrated with Chinese-language money laundering networks. These networks rapidly facilitate the conversion of USD stablecoins into local currencies, potentially blunting concerns that assets held in stablecoins might be frozen,” Chainalysis noted.

Human Trafficking Service Inflows by Asset Type. Source: Chainalysis

CSAM vendors have historically relied more heavily on Bitcoin (BTC). However, Bitcoin’s dominance has declined with the rise of alternative Layer 1 networks. 

In 2025, while these networks continue to accept mainstream cryptocurrencies for payments, they increasingly turn to Monero  (XMR) to launder proceeds. According to Chainalysis,

“Instant exchangers, which provide rapid and anonymous cryptocurrency swapping without KYC requirements, play a crucial role in this process.”

The Dual Role of Crypto in Human Trafficking-Linked Transactions

Chainalysis noted that the surge in cryptocurrency flows to services linked with suspected human trafficking is not occurring in isolation. Instead, it mirrors the rapid expansion of Southeast Asia–based scam compounds, online casinos and gambling platforms, and Chinese-language money laundering (CMLN) and guarantee networks operating primarily through Telegram. 

Together, these entities form a fast-growing regional illicit ecosystem with global reach. According to the report, Chinese-language services operating across mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and multiple Southeast Asian countries exhibit advanced payment processing capabilities and extensive cross-border networks. 

Furthermore, geographic analysis reveals that while many trafficking-linked services are based in Southeast Asia, cryptocurrency inflows originate globally. Significant transaction flows were traced to countries including the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Australia. 

“While traditional trafficking routes and patterns persist, these Southeast Asian services exemplify how cryptocurrency technology enables trafficking operations to facilitate payments and obscure money flows across borders more efficiently than ever before. The diversity of destination countries suggests these networks have developed sophisticated infrastructure for global operations,” the report read.

At the same time, Chainalysis stressed that blockchain transparency offers investigators deeper visibility into trafficking-related financial activity. 

Unlike cash transactions, which leave little to no audit trail, blockchain-based transfers generate permanent, traceable records. This creates new opportunities for detection and disruption that are not possible with traditional payment systems.

As capital flows sharply out of the crypto market in early 2026 and investor sentiment remains at extreme fear levels, venture capital allocation decisions have become a valuable signal. These moves help retail investors identify sectors that may still hold potential during a bear market.

Recent reports indicate that the crypto market environment has changed. The sectors attracting VC funding have shifted accordingly.

VCs Invest Over $2 Billion in Crypto in Early 2026

Data from CryptoRank shows that venture capital firms have invested more than $2 billion into crypto projects since the beginning of the year. On average, weekly inflows have exceeded $400 million.

Crypto Fundraising in Early 2026. Source: CryptoRank

Several large deals stand out. Rain raised $250 million to build enterprise-grade stablecoin payment infrastructure. BitGo secured $212.8 million through its IPO, reinforcing its role as a digital asset custodian and security provider for institutional clients.

BlackOpal also raised $200 million for its GemStone product, an investment-grade vehicle backed by tokenized Brazilian credit card receivables.

Top Funding Rounds For Crypto VCs in Early 2026. Source: Alex Dulub

Beyond these deals, Ripple invested $150 million in trading platform LMAX. The move supports the integration of RLUSD as a core collateral asset within institutional trading infrastructure. Tether also made a $150 million strategic investment in Gold.com, expanding global access to both tokenized and physical gold.

Analyst Milk Road notes that capital is no longer flowing into Layer 1 blockchains, meme coins, or AI integrations. Instead, stablecoin infrastructure, custody solutions, and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization have emerged as the dominant investment themes.

Market data supports this shift. Since the start of the year, total crypto market capitalization has fallen by roughly $1 trillion. In contrast, stablecoin market capitalization has remained above $300 billion. The total value of tokenized RWAs has reached an all-time high of over $24 billion.

What Does the Shift in VC Appetite Signal?

Ryan Kim, founding partner at Hashed, argues that VC expectations have fundamentally changed. The shift reflects a new investment standard across the industry.

In 2021, investors focused on tokenomics, community growth, and narrative-driven projects. By 2026, VCs will prioritize real revenue, regulatory advantages, and institutional clients.

“Notice what’s absent? No L1s. No DEXs. No ‘community-driven’ anything. Every dollar went to infrastructure and compliance,” Ryan Kim stated.

The largest deals listed above involve infrastructure builders rather than token-driven projects designed to generate price speculation. As a result, the market lacks the elements that previously fueled hype cycles and FOMO.

“Not on speculation. Not on hype cycles. They’re looking at the pipes, rails, and compliance layers,” analyst Milk Road said.

However, analyst Lukas (Miya) presents a more pessimistic view. He argues that crypto venture capital is in a state of collapse, citing a sharp, sustained decline in limited partner commitments.

He points to several warning signs. High-profile firms such as Mechanism and Tangent have shifted away from crypto. Many firms are quietly unwinding their positions.

It may still be too early to declare the collapse of crypto VC, given that more than $2 billion has flowed into the sector since the start of the year. At a minimum, these changes suggest that crypto is integrating more deeply with the traditional financial system, a potential sign of long-term maturation.

The US DOJ (Department of Justice) has secured a 20-year prison sentence against the founder of a sprawling crypto investment scheme.

According to prosecutors, this scheme had defrauded more than 90,000 investors worldwide of over $200 million.

DOJ Exposes and Dismantles $200 Million Bitcoin Ponzi as Founder Receives 20-Year Prison Term

In a statement released on Thursday, the DOJ confirmed that Ramil Ventura Palafox, 61, was sentenced after pleading guilty to wire fraud and money laundering charges.

Palafox was the founder, chairman, and CEO of Praetorian Group International (PGI), a multi-level marketing company that claimed to generate outsized returns through Bitcoin trading and crypto-related strategies.

According to court documents, PGI operated from December 2019 to October 2021, raising more than $201 million from investors worldwide. The company promised daily returns of 0.5% to 3%, marketed as profits from sophisticated Bitcoin arbitrage and trading activities.

In reality, investigators found PGI was not conducting trading at the scale required to generate such returns. Instead, it functioned as a classic Ponzi scheme, using funds from new investors to pay earlier participants.

Authorities said at least $30.2 million was invested in fiat currency, alongside 8,198 Bitcoin valued at approximately $171.5 million at the time of investment.

Confirmed losses reached at least $62.7 million, though prosecutors indicated the total financial harm could be significantly higher.

Lavish Lifestyle and Fabricated Profits: How Palafox Hid the Collapse Behind a Luxury Facade

To maintain the illusion of profitability, Palafox allegedly created and controlled an online investor portal that displayed fabricated account balances.

Between 2020 and 2021, the platform consistently misrepresented investment performance. It falsely showed steady gains and reinforced investor confidence even as the scheme unraveled behind the scenes.

Court filings detail how Palafox diverted substantial amounts of investor funds to finance a lavish personal lifestyle.

According to prosecutors, he spent roughly $3 million on 20 luxury vehicles. He also spent approximately $329,000 on penthouse accommodations at a luxury hotel chain and purchased four residential properties in Las Vegas and Los Angeles worth more than $6 million.

Additional expenditures included around $3 million on designer clothing, jewelry, watches, and home furnishings from high-end retailers.

Prosecutors further alleged that Palafox transferred at least $800,000 in fiat currency and 100 Bitcoin—then valued at approximately $3.3 million—to a family member.

The scheme began to collapse in mid-2021 after PGI’s website went offline and withdrawal requests mounted. Although Palafox resigned as CEO in September 2021, authorities said he initially retained control over company accounts.

Prosecutors described this case as one of the more significant crypto-related Ponzi schemes in recent years. The sentencing marks a decisive conclusion to a scheme that thrived on exaggerated crypto profits and global recruitment networks.

Parallels with FTX: How PGI Echoed a Larger Crypto Collapse

Despite differences in scale and sophistication, this case is similar in many ways to the FTX collapse and associated contagion. Both exploited the crypto boom, promising investors outsized, unrealistic returns:

Palafox with daily Bitcoin gains of 0.5–3%,

FTX through high-yield exchange products tied to Alameda Research.

Investor funds were misappropriated for lavish personal spending:

Palafox on luxury cars, real estate, and designer goods

SBF on Alameda’s risky bets, properties, and political donations.

Both schemes used deceptive methods to maintain investor confidence:

PGI with a fake portal showing steady gains

FTX with hidden liabilities and inflated valuations.

PGI defrauded over 90,000 investors with confirmed losses exceeding $62.7 million, while FTX affected millions and billions in missing funds.

Federal prosecutions followed, with Palafox sentenced to 20 years in February 2026 and SBF to 25 years in 2024.

All these highlight a trend among bad actors in crypto while also revealing the DOJ’s ongoing crackdown on crypto-related fraud.

Polygon price is showing fresh signs of recovery after weeks of steady selling. Since February 11, POL is up nearly 13%, and over the past 24 hours, it has gained around 5.4%, holding most of its rebound near $0.095.

At first glance, the structure looks similar to the setup that triggered Polygon’s 90% rally earlier this year. Price is stabilizing, momentum is improving, and buyers are active near support. But this time, one critical element is missing. The last rally began after sellers were fully flushed out. This time, that flush has not happened yet.

POL Price Repeats the Old Reversal Pattern, But Without a Clean Seller Flush

Before the January rally, Polygon formed a very clear bottom. Between December and early January, the POL price printed a sharp lower low in a single move. Sellers capitulated. Weak hands exited. That created a clean base for buyers to step in.

This time, the structure is different.

Between January 31 and February 11, POL again made a lower low near $0.087, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher low. RSI measures buying and selling strength, and this bullish divergence usually signals that selling pressure is weakening. But instead of one decisive breakdown candle, POL tested the same support area twice.

Divergence Setup: TradingView

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Two separate candles touched the $0.087 zone. This creates a “lower-low zone” instead of a clean lower low.

That matters. When a market prints a single deep low, it usually means sellers have given up, hinting at exhaustion. When the price keeps revisiting the same level, it means sellers are still active. Supply has not been fully absorbed yet. So even though the technical pattern looks similar, the psychology is different.

The market has stabilized, but it has not been fully cleansed. That unfinished seller flush is the foundation of the entire twist.

Muted Leverage and Rising Shorts Reflect Unfinished Selling Pressure

This incomplete flush is clearly visible in the derivatives data. During the January rally, leverage exploded early.

Open interest on Binance jumped from around $16.6 million to over $40 million, rising more than 140% in a few days. Traders rushed into long positions as soon as the price turned. This time, that has not happened. Since February 11, while POL gained nearly 13%, open interest has stayed near $18.80 million. There is no strong buildup of leverage yet. Possibly hinting at low conviction.

Open Interest Steady: Santiment

More importantly, funding rates are now negative, near -0.012. Funding rates show which side dominates futures markets. Negative rates mean short traders are paying longs. That signals growing bearish positioning.

In January, funding was positive. Traders were betting aggressively on upside. Now, shorts are building.

This fits perfectly with the price structure. Because sellers have not been flushed out, traders are still comfortable betting against the rally. They see unfinished downside risk. So instead of chasing longs, many are positioning for pullbacks. That lends a major hit to the supposed rally’s conviction.

Funding Rate: Santiment

This keeps leverage restrained and momentum controlled. The rally is moving forward, but under constant pressure.

Whale Accumulation Is Supporting Price, But Not Forcing Capitulation

While traders remain cautious, large holders are behaving differently. Since early February, whale holdings have risen from around 7.5 billion to nearly 8.75 billion POL, an increase of about 16%. This shows that long-term buyers are accumulating quietly.

Their buying is the main reason the price keeps rebounding from the $0.087 area.

POL Whales: Santiment

But whale accumulation has another effect. It absorbs supply without triggering panic. Instead of forcing weak sellers out, whales are slowly taking their coins. That stabilizes the price but delays capitulation. It is worth noting that during the last early-2026 rally, these Polygon whales hardly increased their stash.

So the market ends up in between:

Sellers are still present (not flushed out)

Buyers are active

No one is fully in control of the Polygon price

This is why the price is rising gradually, not explosively. And that might limit the rally potential going forward.

Key Polygon Price Levels Will Decide Whether Sellers Finally Get Flushed

With unfinished selling pressure still in the system, price levels now matter more than patterns. On the upside, the key level is $0.11.

A clean break above $0.118 would signal that remaining sellers are being overwhelmed. From current levels, that would be another 24% move. It would likely attract leverage and weaken short positions, finally completing the flush. Above that, targets open toward $0.137 and $0.186.

Polygon Price Analysis: TradingView

On the downside, the critical support zone is $0.083-$0.087. If POL breaks below that, the lower-low setup fails, and a new one starts forming. That would confirm that sellers still have control and that the unfinished flush is playing out. In that case, the price could slide toward $0.072 and $0.061.

The tokenized gold market has surpassed $6 billion, expanding strongly amid short-term volatility in physical gold prices.

As investors seek exposure to hard assets through digital infrastructure, tokenized gold has become one of the fastest-growing segments of the broader digital asset market.

Tokenized Gold Market Surges Past $6 Billion

According to data from Dune, the total market capitalization of tokenized gold has increased by more than $2 billion since the beginning of the year. At press time, the sector stood at $6.12 billion.

More than 1.2 million ounces of physical gold are now locked in custody to back these digital tokens, highlighting growing demand for blockchain-based representations of bullion.

Tokenized Gold Market. Source: Dune

Tether Gold (XAUT) remains the dominant player, with a market capitalization of $3.5 billion. It accounts for over half of the total tokenized gold market. 

According to Token Terminal data, its market cap has surged more than 50% over the past month alone. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino previously stated that the company plans to increase gold exposure to 10–15% of its overall investment portfolio. 

The firm has significantly accelerated its gold accumulation strategy, reportedly outpacing sovereign buyers such as Greece, Qatar, and Australia. In the last quarter of 2025, Tether added 27 metric tons of gold to its fund exposure.

Furthermore, Tether made a $150 million strategic investment in the precious metals platform Gold.com. The transaction gave Tether approximately 12% ownership of the company. 

This partnership will also allow Tether to integrate XAUT into Gold.com’s platform. The collaboration is designed to broaden “access to gold across digital and traditional distribution channels.”

“The companies are also exploring options to enable customers to purchase physical gold using digital currencies such as USD₮, the world’s largest stablecoin, and USA₮, the newly launched, federally regulated, dollar-backed stablecoin,” Tether wrote.

In addition to its expansion efforts, Tether also launched Scudo, a measurement unit representing 1/1,000 of an XAUT (Gold Ounce)

Paxos-issued PAX Gold (PAXG) ranks second in the sector with a market capitalization of $2.3 billion, following a 33.2% increase over the past month. Together, XAUT and PAXG account for the majority of activity within the tokenized gold ecosystem.

Gold Prices See Volatility Following Record High 

Meanwhile, tokenized gold’s rise comes amid gold’s record rally, which has experienced notable volatility in recent sessions.

Market data shows that after reaching an all-time high of $5,602 per ounce on January 29, gold prices corrected sharply, falling to a low of $4,402 on February 2.

Following that decline, prices staged a partial recovery but faced renewed selling pressure yesterday. BeInCrypto previously reported that spot gold fell by more than 3% and silver by over 10%, amid escalating economic stress.

Gold Price Performance. Source: TradingView

At the time of writing, gold was trading at $4,967 per ounce, up 1.21% over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin price remains under pressure, down around 1.2% over the past 24 hours and trading close to $66,000 at press time. While short-term rebounds continue to appear, the broader structure still looks weak.

Now, even major institutions are turning cautious on their Bitcoin price predictions. New on-chain signals and long-term holders suggest the downside risk is not finished yet.

Standard Chartered’s Warning Matches Weak ETF and Institutional Flows

Standard Chartered recently reiterated that Bitcoin could still fall toward $50,000 before any sustained recovery. The bank pointed to weakening ETF demand and fading institutional participation as key risks. When this view is compared with current market data, it lines up perfectly.

On the price chart, Bitcoin has broken down from a bear flag structure. A bear flag forms when prices consolidate after a sharp fall and then resume the downtrend. This pattern suggests that selling pressure remains dominant, even when short-term rebounds appear.

At the same time, institutional flow indicators are weakening. Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF, which tracks whether large capital is entering or leaving the market, has dropped sharply. CMF now looks weaker than it did during the January–April 2025 correction, when Bitcoin fell around 31%.

Historical BTC Flows: TradingView

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This time, the decline is steeper. Bitcoin has already dropped nearly 38% from its peak, and CMF has fallen faster than in early 2025. This confirms that institutional buying is not returning yet. Without sustained inflows from large investors, rallies struggle to hold.

It is worth noting that during the April-October 2025 phase, when BTC peaked, there were only a few instances when the CMF fell under the zero line, and that too marginally. But now, the CMF dip looks way scarier.

This is why Standard Chartered’s caution makes sense. The breakdown on the chart and weak ETF-linked flows are telling the same story. But institutional weakness is not the only concern.

On-Chain Profits and Long-Term Holders Still Point to More Downside

Beyond ETFs, on-chain data shows that investor confidence remains fragile.

One key indicator is Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL. NUPL measures how much profit or loss holders are sitting on by comparing current prices with when coins were last moved.

During the April 2024 rebound, NUPL was near 0.42. That showed minimal unrealized profits and supported a recovery. Today, NUPL has dropped much lower. It fell to around 0.11 in early February and is now near 0.17. This means most of the leftover profits from the bull cycle have already been wiped out. But this doesn’t confirm a bottom if the bigger picture is taken into consideration.

Bitcoin NUPL: Glassnode

History shows NUPL can still fall further. In March 2023, NUPL dropped to near 0.02 when Bitcoin traded around $20,000. That marked deep capitulation before the next major rally began. Compared to that period, current NUPL levels remain relatively elevated. This suggests the market may not be fully washed out yet.

Long-term holder behavior supports this view. Long-term BTC holders are wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than one year. These investors usually accumulate during major bottoms and help stabilize prices.

Right now, they are still net sellers. In early February 2025, long-term holders reduced holdings by more than 170,000 BTC. At the peak of recent selling, in February 2026, outflows reached nearly 245,000 BTC. This is a heavier distribution than during the January–April 2025 correction.

Holders Selling: Glassnode

Back then, demand from long-term holders had already started recovering before prices bounced. Today, that recovery has not appeared. In simple terms, institutions are cautious, profits are shrinking, and long-term holders are not stepping in yet. This combination makes a strong rebound unlikely in the near term.

Why the $53,000–$48,000 Zone Still Matters on the Bitcoin Price Chart

With fundamentals and on-chain data aligned to the downside, the Bitcoin price levels now become critical.

The current bear flag projection points toward a broad support zone between $53,200 and $48,300. This range aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels.

The midpoint of this zone sits close to $50,000, which remains a major psychological level. Round numbers often attract strong buying and selling activity, making them natural magnets during corrections. This is why Standard Chartered’s $50,000 view fits the technical structure. It is not an arbitrary target. It sits directly inside the main support band.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

If selling pressure continues and ETF flows remain weak, Bitcoin could test this region in the coming months. In a deeper risk-off scenario, downside could even extend toward $42,400, which matches longer-term breakdown projections and historical support.

For this bearish Bitcoin price prediction to slow down, BTC would need to reclaim and hold above the $72,100 region with strong volume and renewed institutional inflows. That would signal that demand has returned and that the bear flag has failed. So far, there is no evidence of that.

Bitcoin (BTC) has extended its downward trajectory. Over the past 24 hours, the asset has declined 1.39%, pushing its total losses for the month beyond 30%.

While the broader bear market environment remains the primary driver of weakness, emerging on-chain signals suggest that concentrated whale activity could reportedly be amplifying BTC’s downside. 

Whale Activity Raises Concerns Over Short-Term Bitcoin Volatility 

In a post on X (formerly Twitter), blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain reported that a whale’s (3NVeXm) deposits have coincided with Bitcoin’s price drops. Data from Arkham showed that the whale started depositing Bitcoin to Binance three weeks ago, starting out with modest amounts. 

However, activity accelerated this week. On February 11, the whale transferred 5,000 BTC into the exchange. The string of transfers has continued with the wallet sending another 2,800 coins just today.

Whale 3NVeXm Bitcoin Transfers. Source: Arkham

Lookonchain suggested that the timing of these deposits may have influenced short-term price action.

“Every time he deposits BTC, the price drops. Yesterday, I warned when he made a deposit — and soon after, BTC dropped over 3%,” the post read.

As of the latest available data, the address still holds 166.5 BTC, valued at over $11 million at current market prices. Large exchange inflows are often interpreted as a precursor to selling, as investors typically move assets to trading platforms to liquidate or hedge positions. 

While correlation does not necessarily imply causation, the scale and timing of these transfers could have increased immediate sell-side pressure in an already fragile market structure. In periods of heightened sensitivity, even the perception of whale-driven selling can amplify downside moves as traders react to on-chain signals and adjust positions accordingly.

Capitulation Signals Point to Market Stress 

The transfers come at a time of pronounced weakness across the Bitcoin market. An analyst noted that Bitcoin’s realized losses surged to $2.3 billion.

“This puts us in the top 3-5 loss events ever recorded. Only a handful of moments in Bitcoin’s history have seen this level of capitulation,” the analysis read.

Bitcoin’s Realized Loss. Source: CryptoQuant

The analyst added that short-term holders, defined as those holding coins for less than 155 days, appear to be driving much of the current capitulation. Investors who accumulated BTC at $80,000-$110,000 are now locking in significant losses, suggesting that overleveraged retail participants and weaker hands are exiting their positions.

In contrast, long-term holders do not appear to be the primary source of this latest wave of selling. Historically, this cohort tends to hold through drawdowns.

“In the past, extreme loss spikes like this triggered rebounds. We’re seeing it now: BTC bounced from $60K to $71K after the capitulation. But this could still be the beginning of a deep and slow bleed-out. Relief rallies happen even in prolonged bear markets,” the analyst stated.

Meanwhile, BeInCrypto previously highlighted several signals suggesting that BTC may still be in the early stages of a broader bear cycle, leaving room for further downside risk. CryptoQuant analysts have pointed to the $55,000 level as Bitcoin’s realized price, a level historically associated with bear market bottoms. 

In previous cycles, BTC traded 24% to 30% below its realized price before stabilizing. Currently, Bitcoin remains above that level.

When BTC approaches its realized price zone, it has historically entered a period of sideways consolidation before staging a recovery. Some analysts argue that a deeper correction toward the sub-$40,000 range could mark a more definitive bottom formation.

Hedera price has declined in recent sessions, forming a descending broadening wedge pattern that typically signals a potential bullish breakout. HBAR trades at $0.0923 at publication, remaining below the $0.0938 resistance level. 

While the technical structure suggests upside potential, Bitcoin’s direction could determine whether that breakout materializes.

HBAR Holders Are Pulling Back On Selling

The Money Flow Index, or MFI, is forming a bullish divergence against HBAR price action. While HBAR recently posted a lower low, the MFI printed a higher reading. This divergence signals weakening selling pressure beneath the surface.

Bullish divergences often precede reversals in cryptocurrency markets. When momentum indicators improve during price declines, it reflects reduced conviction among sellers. Investors appear to be slowing distribution, which may allow HBAR to stabilize and attempt a rebound.

HBAR MFI. Source: TradingView

A confirmed breakout from the descending broadening wedge could trigger forced short liquidations. Liquidation data shows a concentration of short positions near the $0.1012 level. A move above that threshold would likely pressure bearish traders.

The liquidation map indicates most short liquidations sit at up to $0.1012. A rally through that zone could trigger approximately $4.34 million in liquidations. Forced buying from liquidated shorts often accelerates bullish momentum and strengthens breakout structures in volatile altcoins.

HBAR Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass Bitcoin Remains a Problem

Despite improving technical signals, Bitcoin remains the dominant influence. Hedera has shown increasing correlation with BTC over recent months. When Bitcoin declines, HBAR frequently mirrors that weakness regardless of its internal setup.

A brief divergence occurred between June and July 2025, when Bitcoin advanced while HBAR moved sideways. Outside that period, price behavior largely aligned. With correlation now stronger, HBAR could struggle if Bitcoin fails to generate upward momentum.

HBAR Correlation To Bitcoin. Source: TradingView HBAR Price Breakout On The Cards

HBAR price sits at $0.0923, trading within the descending broadening wedge. Immediate resistance at $0.0938 continues to cap upside attempts. A confirmed breakout requires flipping $0.1005 into support and breaching $0.1071 decisively.

Clearing those levels would strengthen the bullish outlook and open the path toward $0.1300, which represents a recovery of recent losses. However, $0.1071 remains the primary short-term objective before any extended rally becomes sustainable.

HBAR Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Conversely, renewed Bitcoin weakness could invalidate the bullish thesis. Failure to overcome $0.0938 or loss of $0.0855 support would increase downside risk. A drop toward $0.0780 would confirm continued consolidation and delay any breakout scenario.

Coinbase’s latest quarterly results have rattled investors and sparked heated debate across the crypto industry after the exchange reported a surprise loss and missed Wall Street expectations.

Still, executives point to strong long-term growth metrics and progress in diversification.

Coinbase Q4 2025 Earnings Report: All You Need to Know

The company released its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on February 12, reporting revenue of roughly $1.78 billion and a GAAP net loss of about $667 million, with earnings per share of –$2.49.

Analysts had broadly expected Coinbase to remain profitable, making the miss particularly striking.

The disappointing results contrasted sharply with optimistic projections circulating earlier in the quarter, reflecting the difficulty of forecasting performance in a highly cyclical crypto market.

Trading Slump and Accounting Losses Weigh on Results

A major driver of the weak quarter was declining trading activity that saw even Hyperliquid dethrone Coinbase.

Transaction revenue, historically Coinbase’s core business, fell significantly year-over-year as falling crypto prices and reduced retail participation dampened volumes across digital asset markets.

The broader market environment also played a role. Bitcoin and other major tokens declined sharply in Q4. This compelled exchanges and trading platforms to adjust to lower activity and reduced fee generation.

However, not all of the damage reflected operational weakness. A substantial portion of the reported loss stemmed from unrealized losses on Coinbase’s crypto investment portfolio and strategic stakes, which were marked down as asset prices fell.

“What drove the big GAAP loss? The headline -$667 million net loss was heavily distorted by non-cash accounting hits: $718 million unrealized loss on Coinbase’s own crypto investment portfolio (marked down as Bitcoin and other tokens fell sharply in Q4). Additional losses from strategic investments (e.g., stake in Circle, which dropped ~40% QoQ),” macro analyst Marty Party commented.

These non-cash charges amplified the headline loss but do not necessarily reflect cash outflows or deteriorating core operations.

Without these accounting adjustments, underlying profitability metrics appeared less severe, though still below expectations.

Management Emphasizes Long-Term Transformation

Despite the negative headline numbers, CEO Brian Armstrong struck an optimistic tone, arguing that the company has made significant structural progress.

“2025 was a strong year for Coinbase, and we built a solid foundation for continued growth in 2026. Our thesis is actually very simple: crypto is updating all financial services, and we’re the best-positioned company to capitalize on this transformation,” Armstrong said, highlighting several operational milestones.

According to the company, total trading volume grew sharply year-over-year, market share expanded, and multiple products now generate more than $100 million in annualized revenue.

Assets held on the platform have also increased significantly over the past three years.

These metrics reflect Coinbase’s strategy to diversify beyond spot trading, expanding into custody, derivatives, subscriptions, and infrastructure services.

Diversification Strategy Shows Mixed Signals

One of the most closely watched segments, subscription and services revenue, proved relatively resilient compared with trading fees.

Recurring revenue streams tied to stablecoins, custody, and premium services have become a growing share of Coinbase’s overall business.

This shift is critical to reducing dependence on volatile retail trading cycles, long viewed as Coinbase’s biggest vulnerability.

However, critics remain skeptical, pointing to declining consumer transaction revenue and a weak near-term outlook for trading volumes as signs that the company still faces significant cyclical exposure.

Industry Headwinds and Investor Reaction

Coinbase’s results arrive amid broader pressure across the crypto sector. Several exchanges and trading platforms have reported declining revenue, layoffs, or executive changes in recent weeks, reflecting the impact of lower market activity.

Investor sentiment has been mixed. Some analysts view the earnings miss and steep loss as evidence that crypto-linked equities remain highly sensitive to market downturns.

Others argue the quarter reflects temporary macro and market conditions rather than a fundamental deterioration of Coinbase’s business model.

Compounding the negative sentiment, some users experienced trading disruptions shortly before the earnings release, which drew criticism and added to market unease.

Coinbase (COIN) Stock Performance. Source: TradingView

As of this writing, COIN stock was trading for $140.97, down by over 45% year-to-date.

Anthropic, the strongest rival to OpenAI, has officially announced a record-breaking $30 billion fundraising round. The deal lifts the company’s post-money valuation to $380 billion, highlighting the powerful pull of capital into the artificial intelligence sector.

Behind the headline number, however, lie complex second-order effects that could increase pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

Why Anthropic’s $30 Billion Raise Could Be a Problem for Bitcoin

Anthropic confirmed it raised $30 billion in a Series G round at a valuation of $380 billion. The round was led by GIC and Coatue, with participation from major investors including Founders Fund, Sequoia, BlackRock, Temasek, Microsoft, and NVIDIA.

The company’s financial momentum is notable. Revenue run-rate has reached $14 billion, expanding more than tenfold annually over the past three years.

Claude Code has gained strong enterprise traction, with eight of the Fortune 10 companies now using Claude. The number of customers spending more than $1 million per year has surged from 12 to over 500.

Anthropic Run-rate Revenue Growth. Source: Anthropic

Anthropic now expects annual revenue to nearly quadruple this year, reaching approximately $18 billion.

As AI tools become capable of autonomously executing complex tasks, demand for traditional software is likely to decline sharply. Instead of paying monthly subscriptions for dozens of SaaS products, enterprises may increasingly rely on a single general-purpose AI assistant to manage operations.

Bloomberg recently reported that advances in new AI automation tools from Anthropic triggered a sell-off of up to $285 billion in software stock market capitalization during the first week of February.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, continues to show a strong correlation with software stocks. Private credit flows largely drive this relationship.

“Software stocks are struggling again today. $IGV (iShares Software ETF) is essentially back to last week’s panic lows. Don’t forget there’s another type of software—‘programmable money,’ crypto. Bitcoin (blue) with the software index (orange). They are the same thing,” analyst Jim Bianco stated.

Bitcoin vs Software Stock. Source: Bianco Research

According to a BeinCrypto report, the $3 trillion private credit industry plays a central role in this dynamic. Software accounts for roughly 17% of investments by deal count.

Pressure that began building in mid-2025 has tightened capital conditions. This shift has increased the risk of reduced lending, early repayments, and forced asset sales, with spillover effects reaching the cryptocurrency market.

As demand for AI tools rises—not only from Anthropic but across the sector—expectations for SaaS companies may weaken. That shift could elevate loan default risks. UBS has warned that U.S. private credit default rates could reach 13%.

Such stress may negatively affect Bitcoin and the broader crypto market through correlation channels.

AI threatens traditional software revenues by displacing demand. It also competes with crypto in areas such as quantum security. As a result, closely monitoring private credit flows and AI development has become increasingly important for crypto risk management.

Anthropic is not the sole driver of these risks. Its swift ascent, however, may signal a larger wave of volatility ahead.

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) activated the XLS-85 amendment on February 12, 2026, bringing native escrow to all Trustline-based tokens (IOUs) and Multi-Purpose Tokens (MPTs). This upgrade opens new use cases for secure, programmable asset settlement.

Moreover, the move expands XRPL’s utility, and market watchers suggest the upgrade could pave the way for institutional capital deployment. But will this impact XRP’s price? That is a question that remains to be answered.

XLS-85 Amendment Extends Escrow Functionality Beyond XRP 

XLS-0085 expands how escrow works on the network. Until now, XRPL’s native escrow functionality was limited to XRP. With XLS-85, that restriction is removed.

“From stablecoins like RLUSD to Real World Assets, the XRPL now supports secure, conditional, on-chain settlement for all assets,” RippleX stated.

XLS-85 upgrades the existing EscrowCreate, EscrowFinish, and EscrowCancel transaction types. Importantly, token issuers retain control. Tokens must explicitly allow escrow functionality through issuer-level flags. This preserves compliance controls and token governance structures already in place.

This is not just a minor tweak. It shifts XRPL from being a network where only XRP could be escrowed to one where assets gain native time-lock and conditional release functionality.

That opens the door to:

Token vesting schedules

Institutional settlement workflows

Treasury management for issued assets

Conditional stablecoin payouts

Structured financial products built directly on XRPL

“Token Escrow (XLS-85) is an upgrade to the #XRP Ledger, which plugs directly into it and makes the DEX institution-ready. The Institutions will begin deploying CAPITAL on #XRPL starting 12 February,” an analyst wrote.

The latest update comes shortly after XRPL activated Permissioned Domains earlier this month to expand institutional use cases.

XRPL’s Token Escrow Upgrade Raises Questions About XRP’s Long-Term Price Impact

It’s worth noting that while the activation of XLS-0085 does not directly increase demand for XRP, it could influence the asset’s long-term price trajectory through broader network effects.

The amendment extends native escrow functionality to Trustline-based tokens and Multi-Purpose Tokens, rather than expanding escrow usage for XRP itself. That means the upgrade does not automatically create additional XRP lockups or immediate supply constraints.

However, the structural implications are more nuanced. If token issuers, including stablecoin providers, RWA platforms, or institutions, adopt XRPL because it now supports native token escrow:

Token issuance on XRPL could increase

Transaction volume may rise

The number of active accounts could expand

Demand for XRP may grow due to fees and reserve requirements

That increases network usage, and XRP is still the gas and reserve asset of the ledger. Higher utility → potentially higher demand for XRP → possible price appreciation. But this depends entirely on real adoption.

Upgrades like XLS-0085 signal that XRPL is positioning itself as a tokenized finance infrastructure. If markets perceive XRPL as becoming more competitive with Ethereum or other token platforms, sentiment alone can influence price. Crypto markets often price in narrative and positioning, not just usage.

In the short term, price impact may depend more on market sentiment than on immediate usage metrics. Over the longer term, sustained ecosystem growth driven by token-enabled escrow could contribute to stronger network fundamentals, which historically play a role in digital asset valuation.

XRP Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

For now, XRP continues to face challenges along with the broader market. At press time, it was trading at $1.36, down 1.35% over the past day.

Nearly $3 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire today at 08:00 UTC on Deribit, placing derivatives markets under intense scrutiny.

Going into today’s options expiry, interest will be on whether the recent price stabilization marks a temporary pause or the beginning of a new directional move.

$3 Billion Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Tests Market Nerves After Liquidation Shock

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading at $66,372, with a max pain around $74,000 and total notional open interest exceeding $2.53 billion.

Bitcoin Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

Ethereum, meanwhile, is trading near $1,950, with approximately $425 million in notional open interest and a max-pain level around $2,100.

Ethereum Expiring Options. Source: Deribit

These figures suggest that a large share of open positions would benefit if prices drifted higher toward max pain levels, but sentiment in the options market remains cautious.

Despite the recent rebound from last week’s sharp sell-off, options metrics suggest traders are still hedging against downside risk.

Analysts at Laevitas noted that Bitcoin’s risk reversals remain heavily skewed toward puts.

“BTC 1-week and 1-month 25-delta RRs have recovered from extreme lows but remain notably negative at approximately −13 and −11 vols, respectively, indicating persistent demand for downside protection,” the derivatives analyst stated.

Bitcoin Delta RRS. Source: Laevitas on X

Risk reversals are widely used to gauge sentiment in derivatives markets. Meanwhile, sustained negative readings typically signal that traders are paying a premium for protective puts, often reflecting fears of further declines.

Liquidations, Put Skew Shock, and a Fragile Shift Toward Calls as Expiry Nears

The current cautious tone follows a dramatic market event in which Bitcoin briefly fell below $70,000, triggering widespread liquidations and extreme derivatives imbalances.

Analysts at Deribit said the move caused one of the most pronounced shifts toward put (sales) demand seen in years.

“BTC broke $70K last week, triggering cascading liquidations, and one of the most extreme put skew moves in years before bouncing back toward the 67K range,” Deribit analysts said.

Such events often leave a lasting psychological impact on markets, with traders remaining defensive even after prices stabilize.

More recently, however, derivatives positioning has begun to shift, with some traders rotating back into call (purchase) options as volatility declines from panic levels. Deribit analysts observed that the market is now at a critical inflection point.

Options expiries of this size can sometimes exert short-term gravitational effects on price, especially when large clusters of open interest are concentrated near specific strike levels.

While short-term positioning has improved, some indicators suggest institutional traders remain skeptical about the medium-term outlook.

Analysts at Greeks.live reported that put options continue to dominate activity in Bitcoin derivatives markets.

“Put options continue to dominate the market, with over $1 billion in BTC put options traded today, accounting for 37% of the total volume. The majority of these are out-of-the-money options priced between $60,000 and $65,000,” the analysts said.

This indicates that institutions have a negative outlook for the medium- to long-term market trajectory. According to the analysts, there is a strong expectation of a bearish trend within the next one to two months

The settlement of today’s options expiry could relieve pressure and stabilize markets. However, it could also be the catalyst for another bout of volatility heading into the weekend.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) bear market has weighed heavily on investors across the spectrum. Corporate treasuries, major whales, and even nation-state holders have all felt the pressure.

The cryptocurrency’s slide has slashed the value of El Salvador’s holdings as credit default swaps rise to a five-month high, raising concerns over the country’s IMF program and debt outlook.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Bet Under Pressure as Portfolio Drops

According to the latest data from El Salvador’s Bitcoin Office, the country’s Bitcoin reserves stand at 7,560 BTC, worth approximately $503.8 million. Bloomberg reported that the portfolio’s value has fallen from around $800 million at Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak, marking a drop of nearly $300 million in just four months.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin Holdings. Source: El Salvador Bitcoin Office

Bukele, an ardent Bitcoin advocate, has continued purchasing one Bitcoin per day. However, this strategy increases the country’s exposure to market volatility.

In contrast, Bhutan recently sold $22.4 million worth of Bitcoin. The divergent strategies of El Salvador and Bhutan reflect fundamentally different risk philosophies. 

Bhutan’s Bitcoin mining operations generated more than $765 million in profit since 2019. However, the 2024 Bitcoin halving significantly increased mining costs, compressing margins and reducing returns. Bhutan now appears to be liquidating part of its holdings, while El Salvador continues to prioritize long-term accumulation.

Nonetheless, the country has also diversified its portfolio. Last month, it spent $50 million to acquire gold as demand for the safe-haven metal rose amid macroeconomic tensions.

IMF Loan Talks Face Strain Over El Salvador’s Bitcoin Policy

El Salvador’s deepening commitment to cryptocurrency has impacted relations with the International Monetary Fund. The government’s continued Bitcoin purchases, combined with delays in implementing pension reforms, have complicated the country’s IMF agreement. 

The Fund has expressed concern about Bitcoin’s potential impact on fiscal stability. A disruption to the IMF program would weaken one of the key supports behind El Salvador’s sovereign debt recovery. Over the past three years, the country’s bonds have returned more than 130%, making them one of the standout turnaround stories in emerging markets.

“The IMF may take issue with disbursements potentially being used to add Bitcoin. Bitcoin being down also doesn’t help to ease investors’ concerns,” Christopher Mejia, an EM sovereign analyst at T Rowe Price, told Bloomberg.

The IMF approved a 40-month Extended Fund Facility on February 26, 2025, unlocking about $1.4 billion in total, according to official IMF documentation. The first review ended in June 2025, with $231 million disbursed.

However, the second review has remained on hold since September, following the government’s delay in publishing a pension system analysis. During that period, El Salvador continued to add to its Bitcoin reserves despite repeated warnings from the IMF. 

A third review is scheduled for March, with each review tied to additional loan disbursements.

“The continued purchase of Bitcoin, in our view, does create some potential challenges for the IMF reviews. The market would react quite poorly if the anchor provided by the IMF were no longer present.” Jared Lou, who helps manage the William Blair Emerging Markets Debt Fund, said.

Meanwhile, bond markets are signaling rising concern over El Salvador’s fiscal outlook. Credit default swaps have climbed to a five-month high, reflecting increasing investor anxiety about the country’s repayment capacity.

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, El Salvador faces $450 million in bond payments this year, with obligations increasing to nearly $700 million next year.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin policy now sits alongside key fiscal and IMF negotiations. The outcome of upcoming IMF reviews and the country’s bond repayment schedule will play a significant role in shaping investor confidence and the sustainability of its debt trajectory.

Prediction platform Polymarket recently launched a new feature that lets users bet on cryptocurrency price movements every five minutes.

The event signals rising demand for real-time crypto sentiment data among traders and investors.

Real-Time Sentiment Drives Short-Term Contracts

For now, the new market is limited to Bitcoin, though support for major altcoins is expected to follow.

Price will update dynamically, in tune with market sentiment and immediate price reaction. All trades will be executed on-chain to ensure transparency and security. 

Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin price bets. Source: Polymarket.

The feature targets day traders and crypto enthusiasts looking for a fast-paced experience. With Bitcoin’s recent dip, price swings have grown increasingly erratic, amplifying short-term volatility.

The initiative builds on existing contracts with varying durations, ranging from 15-minute and hourly intervals to four-hour time frames. It also comes as prediction markets are seeing exponential growth in usage, with individual polls recording trading volumes in the hundreds of millions of dollars. 

It also reflects growing concern that shifting attention toward these platforms could distort crypto’s core purpose and use cases.

Market Weakness Fuels Betting Activity

Among the wide range of polls offered by prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, a significant share involves crypto bets. More specifically, many of these contracts focus on forecasting the future price of major digital assets.

Interest in these wagers has surged in recent months. 

Tens of millions in trading volume have been directed toward Bitcoin’s February price alone, alongside heavily traded contracts linked to Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.

These forecasts have gained traction as the broader crypto market struggles to regain momentum. In this environment, volatility itself appears to be fueling participation, with traders using market weakness as an opportunity to place short-term bets.

While the proliferation of such polls has generated substantial trading activity, it is also drawing capital and attention away from underlying fundamentals.

Instead of sustained focus on integration or real-world use cases, crypto narratives risk shifting toward probabilities and crowd positioning.

Polymarket’s new five-minute betting feature further amplifies that dynamic.

If price-based wagering continues to attract more capital than long-term allocation, the market could increasingly revolve around price movements rather than durable value creation.

Israel indicted two citizens for allegedly using classified information to place wagers on the prediction platform Polymarket, according to a statement made by authorities on Thursday. 

The news renewed concern that prediction markets make it easier to engage in insider trading for profit. 

Israeli Agencies Target Military Insider Betting Case

In a joint statement, the Israeli Defense Ministry, Israel Police, and the Shin Bet said the suspects — an army reservist and a civilian — were arrested on suspicion of placing bets on Polymarket about potential military operations. 

“This was allegedly based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed through their military duties,” the statement said.

The announcement comes weeks after Israeli public broadcaster Kan News reported on the matter. The outlet said security agencies had opened an investigation into the suspected misuse of classified information within the defense establishment.

The report alleged that the information was used to place bets on Polymarket, including on the timing of Israel’s opening strike on Iran during the 12-day war in June 2025.

These platforms have seen a surge in wagers on geopolitics, crypto, politics, and sports. Although marketed as alternatives to traditional gambling, their structure closely mirrors conventional betting markets.

Users buy and sell shares tied to real-world outcomes, with prices ranging from $0.01 to $1.00 reflecting the market’s implied probability of each outcome.

Their accessibility, pseudonymity, and ease of use have also prompted concerns about potential insider trading and misconduct.

Are Prediction Markets Exploitable Profit Machines?

Since the start of the year, several incidents have emerged, raising questions about whether individuals with confidential information are using these platforms to generate substantial profits.

In early January, a cluster of newly created Polymarket accounts placed large, precisely timed wagers on contracts predicting Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office. 

These wallets netted more than $630,000 in combined profits just hours before reports of his capture broke.

A similar controversy emerged last December. A Polymarket user earned nearly $1 million by placing highly accurate bets on Google’s 2025 Year in Search rankings. The precision prompted speculation about possible insider access. 

The wallet achieved an unusually high success rate, correctly predicting nearly all outcomes, including several low-probability results. However, there is no evidence confirming any internal connection.

Together, the incidents have intensified debate over the role of prediction markets. Critics question whether they function as efficient information aggregators or enable the monetization of privileged, non-public information.

Binance Co-CEO Richard Teng has defended the exchange against claims that it was responsible for the October 10, 2025, “10/10” crypto crash, which saw roughly $19 billion in liquidations.

Speaking at CoinDesk’s Consensus Hong Kong conference on February 12, 2026, Teng argued the sell-off was driven by other factors besides any Binance-specific failures.

Richard Teng Gives Binance’s Side of the Story on October 10 Crash

The Binance co-CEO cited macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks between the US and China. Specifically, he cited:

Fresh US tariff threats, including potential 100% duties on Chinese imports, and

China’s imposition of rare-earth export controls.

The combination, he said, flipped global risk sentiment, triggering mass liquidations across all exchanges, centralized and decentralized alike.

“The US equity market plunged $1.5 trillion in value that day,” Teng said. “The US equity market alone saw $150 billion of liquidation. The crypto market is much smaller. It was about $19 billion. And the liquidation on crypto happened across all the exchanges.”

The majority of liquidations (roughly 75%) occurred around 9:00 p.m. ET, coinciding with the release of macro news.

Teng acknowledged minor platform issues during the event, including a stablecoin depegging (USDe) and temporary slowness in asset transfers.

However, he stressed these were unrelated to the broader market collapse. He also emphasized that Binance supported affected users, including by compensating some of them.

“…trading data showed no evidence of a mass withdrawal from the platform,” he added.

Last year, Binance reportedly facilitated $34 trillion in trading volume and served over 300 million users.

It is worth noting that the October 10 crash has been a persistent cause of Binance FUD over the past several months. The exchange has faced criticism from far and wide, with the heaviest attacks coming from rival exchange OKX and its CEO, Star Xu.

Traders Reject Teng’s Macro Shock Explanation Amid $19 Billion 10/10 Liquidation

Despite Teng’s detailed defense, traders on social media have responded swiftly and critically. On X (Twitter), users accused Binance of locking APIs and engineering conditions that forced liquidations, only to deflect responsibility with the “macro shock” explanation.

“Blaming macro shocks is the new ‘it was a glitch.’ $19B liquidated and somehow nobody at Binance is responsible lol,” one user challenged.

Naysayers go further, with some users likening Teng’s claims to colloquial phrases in harsh criticism.

“‘It wasn’t us, it was the macro’ is the crypto exchange version of the dog ate my homework. $19B in liquidations and every platform just points at the guy next to them,” another said.

However, the majority of responses revolved around alleged fake API responses and questioned internal coordination at Binance. The general sentiment is that users feel the exchange is not fully transparent.

The backlash illustrates the ongoing tension between centralized exchanges and leveraged traders during high-volatility events.

While retail demand has cooled compared to previous years, Teng highlighted that institutional and corporate participation in crypto remains strong.

“Institutions are still entering the sector,” he said. “Meaning the smart money is deploying.”

Teng also framed the 10/10 event as part of a broader cyclical pattern in crypto markets. He argued that despite short-term turbulence, the sector’s underlying development continues, with institutional capital driving long-term confidence.

Still, the exchange faces a twofold challenge:

It must defend its role during unprecedented market stress

Binance must also restore trust with a skeptical trading community.

While the $19 billion liquidation wiped out positions across the market, the debate over who or what should be held accountable continues to simmer online. This is expected, given the fragility of confidence in high-leverage crypto trading.