$BTC ︱ The Swing Short.

Still holding the entire swing short. After fractionalized entries, the overall average sits at 95.6K. I plan to hold this down to the absolute minimum target of the yearly open (87.6K).

Reasoning is simple. We had an external range high hunt, reversed back into the range, and are now testing a local trend line with untested liquidity below. As stated multiple times before, at the naked lows we’ve not stopped out any longs, but rather accumulated long liquidations.

As long as BTC remains below 95K and shows acceptance back into the range, sub-90K is next. This may take time to develop, and the entry may be revisited multiple times.

One thing is certain: if I’m right and BTC trends lower through 2026, Ido not want to be trading the drop. Levels will break easily, liquidity will be grabbed aggressively, retests will be shallow, and overall these are not favorable conditions for trading.

I’m sticking to my plan. I’m prepared to take a loss if 112K is hit. Nothing will be closed until 80K is tested. My plan is clear. My thesis is clear. Above 112K, I am wrong, and I will admit it.

Note: Apologies for the large watermark, people have been copying my posts, so from now on everything will include one.

$BTC

5 out of 6 of my scales have now been hit.

My current average entry sits at 95,673.

After careful consideration, I’ve decided to close 25% of the position at a loss. This effectively wipes out the gains from the initial move I caught from 94K > 90K. That said, I believe this is the most prudent decision overall.

By doing this, I’ve pushed my liquidation level out to 112K. I said multiple times in the 110–120K region that I believed BTC had topped. After months of getting mocked for that view, the thesis played out. I captured roughly a 30% drop from the 123K swing shorts, which were posted publicly.

The reason for extending my liquidation to 112K is simple: I believe we still have a few more weeks before a meaningful reversal fully plays out. Call it aggressive if you want, but this is how I structure my swing positions.

With my current average at 95,673, my realistic target is 63K, which still offers close to a 2R:R setup. To me, that is far more attractive than positioning for further upside at this stage.

Using cross margin allows me to position this way. And no, I’m not risking my entire net worth. My liquidation represents only a percentage of my total assets. In the worst case, I’m essentially giving back profits from the previous 123K swing short, which I’m completely fine with.

As always, this is not financial advice. My swing system works for me, but it won’t work for everyone. Yes, we could retrace back to my entry and I could wait to break even, but risk management comes first.

So my invalidation (liquidation) level is 112K.

Come get me, market makers.