Bitcoin Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) has dropped back toward the 0.92–0.94 zone — a level that historically marked major bear market stress points.
In 2019 and 2023, similar readings occurred during deep corrective phases where coins were being spent at a loss.
Each time, this zone represented capitulation pressure and structural reset.
Now, aSOPR is again pressing into that same region.
Key observations:
aSOPR < 1 → Coins are being spent at a loss
Multiple cycle lows formed around 0.92–0.93
Current structure resembles prior bear transition phases
Unlike mid-cycle pullbacks where aSOPR quickly reclaims 1.0, this move shows sustained weakness and loss realization.
If aSOPR fails to reclaim 1.0 soon, this increases the probability that we are not in a simple correction — but transitioning into a broader bear phase.
Historically, true bottoms form when:
aSOPR deeply compresses
Loss realization peaks
Selling pressure exhausts
At the moment, we are entering stress territory — but not yet at extreme capitulation levels.
Conclusion:
aSOPR is signaling structural deterioration.
This looks less like a dip, and more like a regime shift.
The real bottom may still require deeper compression before a durable reversal forms.
Written by 우민규 Woominkyu
