🚨 IS KEVIN WARSH ABOUT TO FLOOD MARKETS WITH LIQUIDITY OR TRIGGER A BOND MARKET RISK?
Recently, the upcoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has called for a new FED TREASURY ACCORD, basically a framework that would decide how the Fed and the U.S Treasury work together on debt, money printing, and interest rates.
This is not only about rate cuts.
Yes, markets expect Warsh to support rate cuts over time, possibly bringing rates down toward the 2.75%–3.0% range.
But the bigger story is what happens behind the scenes.
Warsh has long argued that the Fed’s massive balance sheet, built through years of bond buying pulls the central bank too deep into government financing.
So his plan could involve:
- The Fed holding more short term Treasury bills instead of long term bonds.
- A smaller overall balance sheet.
- Limits on when large bond buying programs can happen.
- Closer coordination with the Treasury on debt issuance.
And this is where history matters. Because the U.S. has already done something very similar before. During World War II, government debt exploded from about $48 billion to over $260 billion in just six years. To manage borrowing costs, the Fed stepped in and controlled interest rates directly.
Short-term yields were fixed near 0.375% and Long-term yields were capped near 2.5%.
If yields tried to rise, the Fed printed money and bought bonds to push them back down. This policy is known as Yield Curve Control. It helped the government borrow cheaply during the war.
But it came with consequences.
Once wartime controls ended, inflation surged sharply. Real interest rates turned negative. And the Fed lost independence over monetary policy. By 1951, the system broke down and the famous Treasury Fed Accord ended yield caps.
