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Despite the price recovery, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “extreme fear,” indicating underlying market anxiety.

Bitcoin BTC$69,822.71 has clawed its way back above $70,000, recovering from a sharp drop near $60,000 earlier in the month.
The cryptocurrency is up nearly 5% in the last 24-hour period, while the broader CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index rose 6.2% in the same period.
The rebound comes as investors react to a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation print and signs of renewed risk appetite. The Consumer Price Index for January rose 2.4% year-over-year, just below the forecasted 2.5%.
That gave markets a reason to believe interest rate cuts could arrive sooner than expected, lifting both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Lower interest rates make risk assets more attractive, as the rate of return on risk-free or low-risk investments lowers.
Traders on prediction market Kalshi are currently weighing a 26% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in April, up from 19% earlier in the week. On Polymarket, the odds rose from 13% to 20%.
Still, the rally masks deeper fractures beneath the surface.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to reflect in deep anxiety, hovering near extreme fear levels last seen during the 2022 bear market over the collapse of FTX. The index has been sitting in “extreme fear” since the beginning of the month.
Bitwise analysts noted that $8.7 billion in bitcoin losses were realized in the last week, second only to the fallout from the 3AC collapse.
“Nevertheless, the rotation of supply from weaker hands to conviction investors has historically been associated with market stabilisation phases, though such redistribution requires time to fully unfold,” Bitwise wrote.
Bitcoin treasury firms were sitting on over $21 billion of unrealized losses, an all-time high. Bitcoin’s recovery has seen that figure drop to $16.9 billion.
Thinner trading volumes are supporting the current rally during the weekend and seller exhaustion. The $8.7 billion in realized losses in the last week could be seen as a “textbook capitulation event.”
Yet, the extreme fear gripping the market poses a challenge. As Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson told CoinDesk, the market’s “main driver right now is fear. Fear that we’ll go lower.”
That fear is seeing investors take any coming rally as a chance to sell. Whether that will keep on materializing or the shift to higher-conviction holders will see the market change directions remains to be seen.

Evan Cheng and Stephen Mackintosh said 2025 marked a turning point for institutional adoption, with tokenization and agentic commerce emerging as the next frontier.

What to know:
Executives cited ETF flows, DAT growth and major trading firms entering crypto.Tokenization and instant settlement could blur the line between traditional and decentralized markets.Low-latency design and composable tooling aim to power AI-driven and tokenized financial use cases.
Institutional interest in crypto is accelerating even as markets fluctuate, according to Sui executives at Consensus Hong Kong 2026.
Stephen Mackintosh, chief investment officer of Sui Group Holdings, called 2025 a “landmark year for institutional adoption,” pointing to the boom in digital asset treasury (DAT) vehicles and the success of spot bitcoin ETFs.
“Post the Genius Act, we’ve seen so much more institutional demand and awareness for what the promise of crypto could deliver,” he said, particularly around tokenization and stablecoins.
While sentiment has fluctuated, Mackintosh argued the structural shift is clear. “The market, despite all of the sentiment being low, has never been greater,” he said, citing record options volumes and the entrance of major firms such as Citadel and Jane Street into crypto markets. He described a long-term trend in which “the biggest institutions in finance in the world” are investing in infrastructure and talent to capture market share.
Mysten Labs CEO Evan Cheng framed the next phase as convergence rather than competition between traditional finance and decentralized finance. In his view, TradFi products often operate on “T+1 or T+whatever,” while DeFi is “T+0”—a “strictly better product” in settlement terms.
The convergence, he suggested, will emerge through tokenization. “You acquire [an asset] and immediately you can collateralize and borrow against it,” Cheng said, enabling DeFi strategies layered on traditional exposure.
On whether ETFs compete with DeFi, Cheng said products will evolve. Institutional on-ramps may begin conservatively but could incorporate yield or other on-chain mechanics over time.
Both executives emphasized infrastructure as Sui’s differentiator. Mackintosh described Sui as “a differentiated proposition” built by former Facebook engineers behind Libra, offering low latency and high throughput suited for emerging use cases such as “agentic commerce”, the intersection of AI and onchain transactions.

The firm's asset-management chief says the recent crypto selloff reflects healthy deleveraging, while infrastructure growth and institutional adoption support a bullish outlook.

What to know:
Recent declines in crypto were driven by liquidity and leverage unwinds, not systemic failure, marking a more mature cycle than 2022, with most forced selling likely behind the market, according to Galaxy Digital's Steve Kurz.Stablecoins, tokenization and blockchain integration with traditional finance are accelerating, positioning crypto as both a financial asset and core financial rail.Kurz said he does not expect a V-shaped recovery, but sees range-bound trading followed by gradual gains as institutional capital deepens and the “great convergence” between crypto and traditional finance continues.
Crypto is no longer just an asset class, it is also an ever-more critical part of financial infrastructure, says Steve Kurz, Galaxy Digital's (GLXY) global head of asset management and co-head of digital assets
In “The Great Convergence,” the company's 2026 investment outlook, Kurz sets out a plan that’s pragmatic about what can be done now while staying optimistic about the big picture in the long run.
The defining story of this cycle, he argues, is the asset-to-infrastructure transformation.
"The convergence of traditional financial rails with crypto infrastructure represents a significant and durable market structure evolution for global financial services," Kurz told CoinDesk in an interview.
Galaxy Digital, a digital asset financial services and investment firm founded in 2018 by Michael Novogratz, functions as a bridge between traditional finance and the expanding cryptocurrency ecosystem. It offers institutional-grade trading, asset management, investment banking, custody, mining and infrastructure services and, increasingly, consumer-facing products.
A market caught in overlapping cycles
Kurz characterizes the current environment as one where “a lot of cycles are sitting on top of each other.”
While crypto token prices have pulled back substantially, he stresses that the levels reached are now below those at which many fundamentally positive developments have occurred. That disconnect makes it “pretty hard not to scratch your head.”
In his view, the dominant force behind recent price weakness has been the liquidity and leverage cycle.
While the October liquidity event and subsequent deleveraging weighed heavily on markets, it differed from 2022, when liquidations exposed structural fragilities in a less developed market architecture.
Today’s pullback is healthier. The ecosystem now includes more sophisticated instruments and better-developed risk-management frameworks. The selloff, he argues, was “a regular wave of deleveraging,” not a systemic breakdown in the back end of the system.
Infrastructure is growing rapidly, and prices usually respond only after tangible increases in activity and adoption, rather than beforehand, he said. When onchain activity and engagement rise again, the story will coalesce around it.
He allows that “there’s always a possibility of a leg down,” but said most of the dramatic selling has probably already occurred. Enough pain has been absorbed that consolidation, range-bound trading or a gradual grind higher are more likely than a V-shaped recovery. His base case is several months of consolidation followed by a firmer move into the second half.
A new regime: crypto on a bigger dashboard
At the center of his thesis: Crypto's integration into Wall Street’s plumbing. With new connections to traditional finance, crypto is now on a much bigger dashboard of global assets, a position that comes with trade-offs.
Capital now flows across a broader opportunity set, and crypto competes more directly with established assets like gold or emerging themes such as quantum technology. The bar for attracting global capital is higher.
According to Kurz, that's evidence of maturity. The relationship between crypto and traditional finance is still immature, but is deepening. Public blockchains are increasingly viewed as institutional-grade infrastructure. Stablecoins and tokenization are reshaping payments and market structure. The tentacles of crypto infrastructure are spreading across financial services.
This is what he calls a bull market in crypto plumbing. The infrastructure layer — custody, compliance frameworks, integration with banks and fintechs — is clearly advancing. And while that may not immediately translate into price appreciation in the short term, it is foundationally important for the long-term value of both the technology and the assets built on top of it.
The fusion of asset and technology
Key to the "Great Convergence” is the fusion of crypto as an asset class with crypto as a technology stack. That integration is driving the creation of a larger, more robust onchain economy.
Galaxy remains focused on crypto-native assets and believes the long-term bridge being built between infrastructure and capital markets is highly likely to play out. Kurz is clear: This is not a short-term “buy the dip” trade; it is a multiyear structural shift.
Sentiment, risks, and the bottoming process
Kurz notes that the spread between price, sentiment and underlying business activity has “never been wider.” While market prices have struggled, business activity, particularly on the infrastructure side, remains strong. That divergence gives Galaxy conviction.
He downplays existential fears, such as quantum computing, as immediate threats to crypto’s viability. More broadly, he observes that periods of intense negativity often coincide with market bottoms. At the same time, he identifies a subtler risk: apathy. A loss of relevance in the broader market conversation would be more concerning than volatility itself.
Bitcoin BTC$69,310.77, in his experience, often acts as a “canary in the coal mine.” Historically, it has been adept at sniffing out macro risk moves before other markets react. It’s possible, he suggests, that BTC sensed broader risk-off conditions and absorbed the pain first. That dynamic can work in both directions.
Having “lived with bitcoin enough,” Kurz believes it can be assessed through a cyclical macro lens. Crypto no longer trades in isolation; it is increasingly intertwined with broader liquidity and risk cycles.
Galaxy’s performance and strategic positioning
Against this backdrop, Galaxy sees strong momentum in its core businesses, particularly infrastructure and asset management. As of the end of last year, Galaxy had $12 billion in assets on its platform.
On the infrastructure side, Galaxy is doing more than it was a year ago. It provides technology and payments services to banks and fintech companies, and its ability to integrate services with traditional financial institutions continues to improve.
As for asset management, Galaxy is expanding its offerings, including the introduction of a fintech hedge fund designed for wealth and high-net-worth channels.
The disruption of financial services market structure represents a “Fintech 2.0” moment and creates both public and private-market investment opportunities, according to Kurz.
"Galaxy’s Fintech Fund will focus on the public markets winners and losers of the great convergence, while Galaxy Ventures will continue to invest in early-stage companies around the globe that are building high quality, crypto-enabled financial services businesses.”
Institutional allocators, pensions, sovereign wealth funds and other asset owners often view crypto as cyclical. But many of these allocators are now making fresh capital allocation decisions. Galaxy reports winning business across banks, wealth intermediaries and institutional asset owners, facilitating inward capital flows even during a consolidation phase.
Institutional assets under management (AUM) remains a key focus, and the firm is seeing growing engagement from large clients. The gap between subdued prices and steady institutional interest reinforces Galaxy’s long-term thesis.
Owning the great convergence
Ultimately, Kurz frames Galaxy’s strategy as “owning the whole story of the great convergence,” from crypto rails and onchain infrastructure all the way to public markets and asset management.
The firm is positioning itself across the stack, capturing both the technological integration of crypto into traditional finance and the financialization of crypto assets.
For 2026, the outlook is measured, constructive. Don’t expect a V-shaped recovery. Expect consolidation, maturation, continued infrastructure buildout. Expect crypto to compete on a broader stage for global capital. And expect the narrative to catch up to the activity once it turns.
In Kurz’s view, the plumbing is being laid for a larger, more durable onchain economy. Prices may lag in the near term, but the long-term fusion of asset and technology leaves him structurally bullish on digital assets, and confident in Galaxy’s role at the center of that convergence.

Sau khi đọc bài chia sẻ của Vitalik Buterin về tình trạng hiện tại của prediction markets, tôi hoàn toàn đồng tình với những lo ngại mà ông nêu ra. Prediction markets đã đạt được một số thành tựu đáng kể: khối lượng giao dịch đủ lớn để hỗ trợ các nhà giao dịch chuyên nghiệp và cung cấp thông tin bổ sung hữu ích bên cạnh các nguồn tin tức truyền thống.
Tuy nhiên, chúng dường như đang rơi vào một mô hình sản phẩm không lành mạnh, tập trung quá mức vào các cược ngắn hạn liên quan đến giá tiền điện tử, cá cược thể thao và các hoạt động mang tính kích thích dopamine cao nhưng thiếu giá trị xã hội lâu dài. Các đội ngũ phát triển thường phải nhượng bộ những xu hướng này để duy trì doanh thu trong giai đoạn thị trường suy thoái – một động lực dễ hiểu, nhưng cuối cùng dẫn đến tình trạng “corposlop” (sản phẩm doanh nghiệp kém chất lượng, thiếu sáng tạo).
Tôi tin rằng để đưa prediction markets thoát khỏi tình trạng này, chúng ta cần thúc đẩy một ứng dụng hoàn toàn khác: hedging (phòng ngừa rủi ro) ở mức độ tổng quát hóa cao, thậm chí có thể thay thế vai trò của tiền tệ fiat truyền thống.

Các Bên Tham Gia Trong Prediction Markets
Prediction markets hoạt động dựa trên hai loại người tham gia chính:
Nhà giao dịch thông minh (smart traders): Họ cung cấp thông tin chính xác cho thị trường và kiếm lợi nhuận từ đó.Bên thua lỗ (losers): Một bên phải chấp nhận mất tiền để thị trường tồn tại và hoạt động.
Hiện nay, bên thua lỗ chủ yếu là “nhà giao dịch ngây thơ” (naive traders) – những người đặt cược dựa trên quan điểm sai lầm. Không có gì sai trái về mặt đạo đức khi lấy tiền từ những quyết định kém cỏi, nhưng việc phụ thuộc quá mức vào nhóm này tạo ra động lực tiêu cực: các nền tảng sẽ tìm cách thu hút và nuôi dưỡng cộng đồng với quan điểm thiếu cơ sở, dẫn đến sự suy thoái về chất lượng và uy tín.
Một mô hình lý tưởng khác, được các nhà lý thuyết như Robin Hanson ủng hộ, là “người mua thông tin” (info buyers) – những tổ chức thiết lập các thị trường tự động để khuyến khích giao dịch và thu thập dữ liệu hữu ích. Tuy nhiên, mô hình này gặp vấn đề hàng hóa công cộng: chi phí do một bên chịu, nhưng lợi ích lan tỏa cho toàn xã hội, dẫn đến khối lượng giao dịch hạn chế.
Giải pháp bền vững hơn nằm ở người phòng ngừa rủi ro (hedgers): Những người chấp nhận thua lỗ trung bình để giảm thiểu rủi ro tổng thể.

Ví Dụ Về Hedging Trong Prediction Markets
Giả sử bạn sở hữu cổ phiếu của một công ty công nghệ sinh học. Thông tin công khai cho thấy Đảng Tím (Purple Party) sẽ mang lại lợi ích lớn hơn cho ngành so với Đảng Vàng (Yellow Party). Nếu bạn đặt cược một khoản nhỏ (ví dụ: 10 USD) vào việc Đảng Vàng thắng cử, bạn có thể cân bằng rủi ro danh mục đầu tư.
Cụ thể, giả sử:
Nếu Đảng Tím thắng, giá cổ phiếu dao động từ 80-120 USD.Nếu Đảng Vàng thắng, giá dao động từ 60-100 USD.
Sau khi đặt cược, lợi nhuận tổng thể của bạn sẽ ổn định hơn, tương đương dao động từ 70-110 USD trong cả hai kịch bản. Sử dụng mô hình tiện ích logarit (log utility), lợi ích từ việc giảm rủi ro này có thể đáng giá khoảng 0.58 USD – một con số nhỏ nhưng tích lũy lớn khi áp dụng quy mô.

Ý Tưởng Tiên Tiến: Thay Thế Tiền Tệ Fiat Bằng Prediction Markets Cá Nhân Hóa
Một ứng dụng hấp dẫn hơn là sử dụng prediction markets để tạo ra sự ổn định tài chính cá nhân hóa, thay vì phụ thuộc vào stablecoin hoặc tiền tệ fiat. Người dùng stablecoin thực chất mong muốn bảo vệ khả năng chi trả chi phí tương lai, không phải giữ giá trị ổn định so với USD. Tuy nhiên, các stablecoin dựa trên USD vẫn mang tính tập trung và không phù hợp với mọi nhu cầu chi tiêu đa dạng.
Ý tưởng thay thế: Xây dựng các chỉ số giá trên mọi loại hàng hóa và dịch vụ chính (xem xét sự khác biệt địa lý, như thực phẩm tại Việt Nam so với Mỹ), kết hợp với prediction markets cho từng hạng mục. Mỗi người dùng (cá nhân hoặc doanh nghiệp) sẽ sử dụng một mô hình ngôn ngữ lớn (LLM) cục bộ để phân tích chi tiêu cá nhân, sau đó đề xuất một “giỏ” cổ phiếu prediction market tương đương “N ngày chi phí tương lai dự kiến”.
Với cách tiếp cận này, chúng ta không cần tiền tệ fiat nữa:
Tài sản tăng trưởng (như cổ phiếu hoặc ETH) dùng để tích lũy giá trị.Cổ phiếu prediction market cá nhân hóa dùng để đảm bảo ổn định.
Các thị trường này cần được định giá bằng tài sản có lợi nhuận (như fiat có lãi suất, cổ phiếu gói gọn hoặc ETH), vì chi phí cơ hội của fiat không lãi suất thường vượt quá lợi ích hedging. Nếu thành công, mô hình này sẽ thu hút khối lượng giao dịch khổng lồ từ vốn chuyên nghiệp, với cả hai bên đều hài lòng lâu dài: nhà giao dịch thông minh kiếm lợi từ thông tin, và hedgers giảm rủi ro thực tế.

Kết Luận
Prediction markets có tiềm năng trở thành nền tảng của hệ thống tài chính thế hệ tiếp theo, thay vì sa lầy vào các sản phẩm mang tính giải trí ngắn hạn. Bằng cách tập trung vào hedging và cá nhân hóa, chúng ta có thể xây dựng một hệ thống bền vững, phi tập trung, mang lại giá trị xã hội thực sự. Như Vitalik kết luận: “Build the next generation of finance, not corposlop.” Tôi khuyến khích các nhà phát triển DeFi và prediction markets khám phá hướng này để tạo ra sự thay đổi thực sự.