加密猴哥MJ

It’s interesting to go straight into a bull run from here
A bull run means the bottom is effective—at most, a double test near the prior low.
Then it ranges and moves forward until it breaks the previous all-time high.
Looking at a larger time frame, using quarterly candlesticks,
Bitcoin still has 1 to 3 candlesticks to complete its base.
Pay attention to the green line—57000 has already dropped to the same level as it did in the previous cycle when it was at 15000.
The macro environment has no major bearish shock,
and the mid-term election can only affect short-term volatility.
Wall Street expects rate hikes in the first half of next year,
and rate cuts in the second half.
Actually, Bitcoin has already fallen a lot, and many negative factors have already been priced in.
At most, it’s just another two months of digestion—
so will it reach 40,000? I don’t think there will be a “black swan,” so basically it’s not likely.
At the most, it could be around 53,000—maybe, but not certain.#比特币

美股和币圈到底选哪个？

There are several theories about where Bitcoin’s bottom is.

First is 35,000.

Second is 43,000.

Third is around 55,000.

Fourth is 60,000—meaning the current level.

Each of these explanations has its own set of theories to support it.

But the unified consensus across these four different target prices is that the bottom will be reached successfully from September to October this year.

Based on macro factors, this is the consensus the market is giving.

For me, no matter what price it may reach.

Starting in September, I’ll begin positioning in some coins I’m optimistic about.

This bull market will definitely bring more opportunities than the last one.

My stock account only has TSLA and it hasn't dropped

The sky is falling—stocks in the US market did us in

How did MRVL go up, and then fall back again?

GLW also went from around 270 down to 182

These past few days the drop feels like a bubble has cracked

Crushing the sentiment and the leverage is really ruthless

Even though I don't believe it just ends like this, I'm still really scared

HYPE is still steady—keeps going up

The bullish market script for the crypto world in my mind

Bitcoin is still the main leader

After reaching the bottom, MEMEs react first, creating a new hotspot

Next come the large-exchange CEX platform tokens and HYPE—they start pumping

As for secondary-tier altcoins, I believe it’s mostly localized effects

For example, if there’s a good news catalyst, but the market cap is low, the team controls the majority of the supply, and the coin is a newly listed coin or a “next-new” token—making money is extremely difficult

For the new coins that launched during this bull cycle’s hype, their alt versions will gradually be delisted in the next cycle

Finally, there are the old MEMEs on BSC—those that get listed on Binance Spot or trade on futures/contracts

From a certain narrative angle, they’re still active—for instance, the Hamky that barely dropped this cycle, and GIGGLE that dropped to the point of being worthless

Coins like Binance Life that move in this way should have a chance to be seen again

In short, the next bull market should be not much different from this one in terms of how it’s being traded

Ethereum’s lackluster performance has made the crypto narratives feel depleted

Tragically, up to now, there still aren’t any signs of new narratives emerging

This BSC wave has already given the answer: it’s still mainly about trading and pumping MEMEs, and it remains emotional

The framework for the next round of hype should be like this

Use your money to place your bets carefully and allocate accordingly; follow the logic above to find opportunities. It’ll be harder to make money, but there are still some chances.

Ansem this guy pumps his own MEME. It goes up, but

I’d rather miss the trade than be the one left holding the bag for him.

According to my keyword searches and feedback from the P junior guys,

the so-called “airdrops” this person does are all for foreigners.

Then he fans the flames and stirs up emotions—his marketing is all in the Chinese community.

Getting more attention to shift into the crypto market is a good thing,

but the timing is wrong; this will end up trapping more people’s principal.

Anyway, as long as the Bitcoin bull market doesn’t come back, he won’t play memes.

Missed friends of cz and heyi, so don't get on the train.

And don't go buy diversion-startup boards other than the leader.

First, you can't make big money.

Second, the startup boards can't compare to the leader.

Your principal is very easy to lose.

The days of USDC are getting harder and harder to manage

First there was the old stablecoin USDT in the crypto circle

Next to it, there’s also OUSD, which is jointly promoted by more than 140 big companies

And there’s the USD1 from the Trump family

Recently, from time to time, you might find

that in Binance’s BTCUSD1 contract trading pair

sometimes the depth is better than USDC

There are two possibilities

Either USD1 and Binance are increasing liquidity together

Or more fee-paying users and institutions are trading on usd1

The latter is more likely

because lately many of the orders are large amounts

With the fee advantage, there’s a high chance that big accounts and institutions are involved.

This wave of USD1 “bear market” investing is too impressive

Many people made money and have already gotten used to using USD1

USDC’s advantage is gradually disappearing

The other day, the U.S. stock market correction in storage and semiconductors scared a lot of people away.

Today, most of it has basically been pulled back.

Holding on is how important it is—otherwise you might really end up feeling clueless and losing money.

MRVL, AMD, TSLA, INTC, MU

These great stocks are all suitable for buying on pullbacks.

The AI market should reach a new peak around November this year, and then keep moving back and forth through to the first half of next year.

I still think that the potential of humanoid robots should be even greater next year.

The more you look, the more you like it

The market for humanoid robots is measured in trillions of US dollars

Even though it has risen from 3.5 to 5.9, the market is still only 3.7 billion

In terms of sensors, OUST has its own monopoly technology

In the drone segment, it’s also a necessity

If you force me to pick a potential stock with a small market cap and 10x upside

OUST definitely counts as one

In my view, the US stock market at least needs to stay bullish until 2027.

The peak period for AI earnings to be realized will most likely be in next year's Q3 and Q4—especially around Nvidia's Q4 results.

Nvidia's Blackwell is currently being shipped at large scale, and Vera Rubin will also enter full ramp-up next year.

Especially on the revenue side, realization will accelerate in the second half of 2027.

Other companies in the AI supply chain, such as Broadcom, TSMC, and others, are in a similar situation.

Most of the major orders are locked in for delivery between 2026 and 2027, with the highest density in the first half of 2027.

At this point, the AI bull market can continue—there really isn't anything wrong with that.

But as the saying goes, when it reaches its peak, it must decline; cycles repeat.

After the peak, expectations of weaker data will inevitably come.

And 2028 is also a year with extremely high uncertainty.

The 2008 financial crisis—everyone knows about that.

In 2018, the US stock market had its worst performance since 2010.

It seems 2028 may be pointing to this same pattern, since AI has risen too sharply in recent years and can't keep going forever.

If the US stock market sees a major correction in 2028, then it will truly usher in another phase of “picking up gold.”

TSLA is really tough—when the AI pulls back, it rallies.

I just feel like news from Optimus is about to drop soon.

The humanoid robot sector is waiting for a big catalyst.

As for MU, there’s not much to say—I did two rounds.

From 650 to 1000, then around 910 up to 1200.

When Hynix goes public, it will definitely dilute its upside potential.

For the next few years, memory/storage is still a must-have—keep a bit for the long term.

My current position priorities:

TSLA, MRVL, and SPACEX are long-term, while MU is mid-term.

The rest are just some “wildcard” small-cap stocks.

I’m optimistic about the market in July.

Let’s wait for Hynix to list—can it bring another wave of pullback?

After you fall in love with someone, even the shit she takes smells sweet.

A fun fact: Google has released more than 1 billion mosquitoes across four continents so far.

If mosquitoes are going to die, then let them die—I really hate mosquitoes.

Every time I get bitten, I break out in hives—purely an allergic reaction.

Sometimes I can’t even sleep well because it’s just too uncomfortable.

Google is truly a tech company that benefits all of humanity.

Now when searching for things, I prioritize Google.

No search scams—no “Puzhou hospitals.”

Google Docs has replaced the Tencent Docs I used before.

I don’t use QQ and my NetEase email accounts much anymore.

As for Google’s plan to release mosquitoes—I’m all for it with both hands.

Although I agree with the logic that AI won’t keep rising forever,

I don’t agree that BCH will take up half of BTC’s market value.

And I definitely don’t agree that ETH will reach $10,000.

Don’t be too timid when trading US stocks.
From MU going from 300 to 1200—
how many people got scared off during that process.
Everything your KOLs and OGs give you is a rational value.
When it was 300, they told you a target of 400.
But you often can’t get 400.
Maybe it hits 380 and you bail.
Then the worst situation happens:
MU jumps straight up to 450.
All kinds of KOLs and OGs continue the analysis,
and the target price is back at 500.
So the discomfort of missing out hits,
and you chase it.
But overall your cost basis keeps rising.
Never underestimate the bull market cycle in US stocks.
Don’t be overly cautious.
Don’t just follow the rumors.
Have a bit more nerve so you can actually get your share in US stocks.

July will be another wave of peak momentum in the storage sector

Cherish the market opportunities every month

Whatever you do, don’t make random moves

Analyze and analyze all you want—it's not as good as holding onto the leading stock

Stand in the light, and you can stay away from the darkness.

Start bargain hunting— the more panic, the more excited

MU's earnings report far exceeded expectations

MRVL was dragged down so much— can we keep adding

INTC hasn't really fallen at all; it's extremely strong

US stocks are really great—they always give opportunities to board again on pullbacks

When storage hasn’t started, many people say it has a cycle

Now that prices have risen, they say the cycle has changed

If it didn’t go up, it’s bearish; if it went up, it’s bullish

Playing the US stock market is most afraid of only listening to what others say

And forgetting what you should do

Before the trend sector takes off

Most people definitely don’t think highly of it

From contempt to hesitation, and then to FOMO worship

AI’s next round is robots and space

For friends who have bought, don’t be in a hurry—wait patiently for the explosion

Embrace opportunities that can change the world

AI industry track

Humanoid robots

Quantum computing

Energy storage and power

Space ecosystems

Biotechnology

These are the directions for how human society will evolve over the next few decades

Within each of these tracks, there are overall leading companies

Within each track, every sub-field has its own dark horse

We don’t need to buy into everything

Catching one or two tracks is enough

US stocks really can change your social class

The prerequisite is having enough principal

I think 500,000 yuan is enough

If you don’t have capital yet, first spend your effort on increasing your income

Earning 5K per month versus earning 10K per month is fundamentally different

Don’t spend too much time for small fluctuations of a few thousand—it's not worth it