RecodeX

📡 Top of the Hour Report | 00:00-01:00

1. OpenAI has secretly submitted its IPO application, aiming to go public in 2027 at a valuation of $1 trillion, and is voluntarily ceding 5% equity to the U.S. government to hedge regulatory risks.

2. Micron Technology has launched a $9.3 billion fab expansion project in Hiroshima, Japan, to produce AI storage chips such as HBM; the Japanese government will provide subsidies of up to about 500 billion yen.

3. 58% of U.S. voters believe the Trump administration’s military conflict with Iran is not worth the cost. The White House is seeking an additional $67 billion in federal funding from Congress to cover war expenses.

4. easyJet has, in principle, agreed to Castlelake’s proposed all-cash acquisition offer of £5.2 billion at £6.90 per share, to be taken private and delisted.

5. Bitcoin is approaching $63,500 over the weekend, setting a nearly two-week high, but traders warn that Monday’s outlook could be “extremely bad.” Ethereum’s net supply increased by 83,550 over the past 30 days.

6. After gold prices plunged by nearly 30%, they are now in a “defend $4,000” battle. A hawkish stance from the newly appointed Fed chair, Waller, and a sharp pullback by speculators have put pressure on gold.

7. Wealthy U.S. families use AI to compress learning time to cultivate creativity, while parents in China use AI to strengthen test-prep and drill practice—reflecting starkly different educational choices in the AI era.

8. The Israel Defense Forces say they have fully taken control of Beaufort Ridge in southern Lebanon. The IDF’s chief of staff says they will continue operations to eliminate threats coming from Lebanon.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 23:00-00:00

1. Israel’s cabinet unanimously rejects compliance with the Supreme Court’s ruling, setting a historic precedent. Netanyahu says the forces will continue to remain in Lebanon, and reiterates the goal of preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

2. In Mianzhu City, Sichuan, three earthquakes hit within half an hour (4.5, 4.0, and 4.5). Netizens in many areas received early warnings, and the shaking was strong.

3. OPEC+ agrees to increase production by 188,000 barrels per day in August, as the oil market cools. Germany plans to raise its borrowing scale for 2027, due to tax revenue coming in below expectations.

4. The CSRC revises refinancing rules for listed companies, optimizing eight mechanisms such as fast financing for small amounts and placement pricing of share issuances, to enhance inclusiveness in the capital markets.

5. Several A-share companies release their first-half performance forecasts. Yongding Co., Ltd. expects net profit to increase by 57%-120%. Oriental Shenghong expects net profit to rise by 987%-1,195%.

6. Affected by Typhoon “Maysak,” Liuzhou in Guangxi issues a red rainstorm warning. Twenty-nine rivers exceed alert levels, and the Fangcheng River sees the largest flooding since 1982.

7. SK hynix is considering listing in the U.S. to attract more AI investors. It expects AI capital expenditures to reach $1.1 trillion by 2027—possibly surpassing U.S. defense spending for the first time.

8. A giant whale shorts BTC on Hyperliquid with 15x leverage, indicating strong bearish sentiment. Addresses linked to entities under sanctions received more than $100 billion in cryptocurrency last year.

📡 Daily News Snapshot | July 05

Over the past 24 hours, global markets have moved sideways in a fierce tug-of-war between escalating geopolitical risks and structural opportunities. The U.S. and Iran announced they would pause talks for a week; Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s funeral in Iran introduced new variables into the Middle East situation; and safety for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz became the focus. After sharp swings, the cryptocurrency market rebounded—Bitcoin is back above $63,000—but panic sentiment and tightening regulation coexist. Competition in the AI sector is heating up; domestic chips have achieved milestone breakthroughs, yet concerns about a bubble and increased divergence in earnings have intensified. Investors should watch for policy signals from next week’s Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meeting minutes, while also tracking progress in U.S.-Iran talks and the persistence of demand for AI hardware.

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📊 Global Macro

1. Weak U.S. employment data: In June, full-time employment fell by 514,000 to 133.66 million, the lowest since December 2024. It declined for three straight months and has dropped a cumulative 2.24 million since January, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will restart rate cuts in October.

2. OPEC+ confirms production increases: In principle, it agreed to raise oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day in August. Brent crude is nearing $70. Wall Street warns of possible oversupply next year, putting downward pressure on oil prices.

3. China’s logistics and consumption rebound: June’s logistics business confidence index rose to 50.6%. Express parcel volume has already exceeded 100 billion deliveries (9 days earlier than last year). The commodity price index edged down slightly, easing cost pressures for enterprises.

4. U.S. Treasury interest costs hit a record: Total Treasury debt stands at $39 trillion. Annual interest expense is about $1 trillion, worsening fiscal pressure; the Department of Defense has launched a $300 million carbonated lithium strategic reserve program.

5. Regulatory overhaul under the Trump administration: Plans to repeal 702 administrative regulations, expected to save $1.5 trillion in costs. The redesign of U.S. dollar banknotes includes a printed Trump signature.

💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin rebounds to $63,000: Over the past 24 hours, the total liquidations across the market were $239 million (mainly long liquidations), and analysts expect a potential rebound to $70,000 in July. But a surge in exchange deposits suggests volatility may increase.

2. Diverging ETF fund flows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for the eighth consecutive week, setting a historical record. However, a daily inflow reversal occurred. Coinbase’s negative premium set the longest record, indicating weak U.S. demand.

3. Dense regulatory and compliance developments: Europe’s Revolut delisted USDT due to MiCA authorization issues. A Germany-based bank will open crypto trading to 50 million customers. South Africa released guidelines on taxation for crypto assets.

4. Meme coin bubble bursts: Nearly one million investors collectively lost $3.81 billion on Trump-themed tokens. Meme coins’ market-cap share fell to 3.7%, the lowest in three years, as capital rotates toward more stable assets.

5. Progress in the Ethereum ecosystem: Vitalik published a “simplified” roadmap aimed at reducing transaction costs by more than 10x through native STARK verification. Next week, token unlocks worth over $1.1 billion will occur, and the market is watching liquidity risks.

🤖 AI & Technology

1. Landmark breakthrough in domestic chips: Peking University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly developed the world’s first memristor neuromorphic dynamics chip. Brain-modeling speed is reportedly 50–478x faster than NVIDIA A100, and the achievement was featured in the journal *Science*.

2. AI giants’ competition intensifies: Reports say OpenAI will release GPT-5.6 next week. Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro is expected to launch on July 17. Anthropic has started developing its own AI chips, and NVIDIA has introduced the HORIZON and ASPIRE frameworks.

3. AI hardware demand remains robust: Hon Hai’s June sales rose 52.1% year over year. YD Technology Co. Ltd. expects net profit growth of 57%–120% in the first half. Chengbo Dragon’s net profit surged 74,393%, highlighting an explosion in demand for AI compute power.

4. Concerns about an AI bubble emerge: Yunzhisheng’s share price plummeted 90%. Hongbo shares fell 80% due to alleged earnings fraud and internal infighting. This has raised market concerns about the downsides of an “AI project-based” model and the risks of hype-driven speculation.

5. New regulations hit AI applications: ByteDance and Alibaba will discontinue AI humanoid agent functions on July 15 for complying with the “Interim Measures for the Administration of Humanlike Interactive Services by Artificial Intelligence.” Apple’s Siri AI goes live in the fall only for iPhone 15 Pro models and above.

🌍 Geopolitics

1. U.S.-Iran talks paused for one week: Trump said both sides decided to pause talks until the end of Khamenei’s funeral, during which there will be no firing between them. Iran plans to charge service fees for navigation through the Strait of Hormuz under international standards, and Oman’s sea-lane shipping has seen a sharp reduction.

2. Escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues: Russian forces claim they control four residential settlements in Kharkiv Oblast. A roughly 1 hour 25 minute phone call between Putin and Trump reiterated a preference for resolving the conflict through political and diplomatic means. Zelensky and Trump agreed to meet during the NATO summit.

3. Middle East situation grows more complicated: Netanyahu plans to visit the White House next week. Israel has confirmed for the first time that it deployed the “Iron Dome” system to the UAE. A Hamas delegation met with Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran, reaffirming support for the Palestinian cause.

4. Joint China-Russia military drills: The two countries announced that in July they will hold a “Joint Naval-2026” joint exercise near Qingdao, and they will also organize joint naval patrols in relevant areas of the Pacific.

5. U.S. extreme weather and security incidents: More than 165 million people face a rare heatwave, and the Washington Metro derailed due to extreme heat. A shooting incident occurred in New York’s Coney Island, injuring 8 people.

📈 Stock Market Updates

1. Clear divergence in A-share performance: Dongfang Shenghong expects first-half net profit to rise 987%–1,195% year over year. China Merchants Energy Shipping (CMES) is up 214%–248%. However, more than 52 billion yuan in funds reportedly withdrew from technology stocks, and Nomura believes AI demand growth has not yet peaked.

2. Revised rules for refinancing: The CSRC will establish a shelf issuance system for targeted placements, standardizing the pricing benchmark date as the first day of the issuance period and extending the lock-up period to 36 months, compressing arbitrage space.

3. Thematic investing and bubble warning: Xingye Technology won a seventh consecutive daily limit after planning to acquire indium phosphide business, and the CSRC issued a warning

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📡 8-hour recap | Jul 05 16:00-24:00

Over the past 8 hours, the market has swung violently among geopolitical tensions, a surge in AI hardware demand, and changing expectations for macro policy. OPEC+ confirmed an increase in production for August, putting pressure on oil prices. AI-computing-related companies’ earnings surged, but Cloud Intelligence’s stock price plunged 90%, raising concerns about a bubble. In the crypto market, volatility intensified—Bitcoin has been trading in a range around $62,000, while regulatory and compliance developments have been coming thick and fast.

Macroeconomy

1. OPEC+ has, in principle, agreed to raise oil production quotas in August by 188,000 barrels per day. Seven countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia will adjust output, reiterating their commitment to market stability. Brent crude is near $70, and Wall Street warns of a potential oversupply next year.

2. Citi expects the Federal Reserve to restart rate cuts in October, as the rationale for hikes has disappeared, which could benefit liquidity in the crypto and RWA markets. Germany plans to increase its 2027 net additional borrowing to EUR 118 billion.

3. Three departments allocated 15,000 units of central disaster-relief supplies to Guangxi and Liaoning to respond to Typhoon “Maysak” and torrential rain and flooding. The Ministry of Water Resources has launched a Level III emergency response for flood defense in Guangxi.

4. South Korea plans to use tax incentives for the chip industry to set up a future fund to support investment in advanced technologies. China’s CXMT has launched pilot production for a bonded DRAM production line, and the technology may be ahead of South Korea.

5. South Africa’s tax authority released a draft guide on taxation of crypto assets. The China Payment and Clearing Association has warned about the risk of cross-border gambling involving virtual currencies, as regulatory updates continue to intensify.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin has been hovering around $62,000–$63,000, with a week-on-week gain of nearly 5%. Binance’s net outflows for the week reached $1.23 billion. Ethereum withdrawal volume hit a three-year high, and market volatility has increased.

2. Memecoin’s market cap share has fallen to 3.7%, the lowest in three years. Investors are shifting toward more stable assets. Big Brother Maji opened an ETH long position with 25x leverage worth $15.84 million and faces liquidation risk at high resolution.

3. The odds of the U.S. crypto bill “CLARITY Act” being signed have risen to 52%. MicroStrategy CEO predicts that inflows of institutional funds will replace the halving as the main driver of future growth.

4. Next week, more than $1.1 billion worth of tokens will be unlocked, including $796 million unlocked for RAIN. The market is watching liquidity risks closely. Solana’s active addresses over the past 7 days reached 31.38 million, up 38% year over year.

5. AI investment research platform LinqAlpha completed a $22 million Series A round, using AI technology to provide investment analysis for the crypto market. The Ethereum Foundation granted 2,469 stETH to the nonprofit developer organization Argot.

AI Technology

1. Foxconn’s June sales rose 52.1% year over year. Its AI rack shipments continued to grow. Foxconn, an NVIDIA server-assembly partner, saw quarterly sales up more than 40% beyond expectations, highlighting sustained strong demand for AI hardware.

2. Yonden Co., Ltd. expects net profit in the first half to grow 57%–120% year over year, benefiting from the surge in demand for AI computing power driving higher volume and pricing in the fiber optics market. Dragonchip’s first-half net profit surged 74,393%.

3. Cloud Intelligence’s stock price plunged 90%, exposing the drawbacks of an AI project-based model and triggering concerns in the market about a potential burst of the AI bubble. CICC pointed out that after short-term disruptions, investors should focus on two main lines: technology rebound and interim report performance.

4. ByteDance and Alibaba, in response to new regulatory rules, will take down the functionality of humanoid AI agents in their AI applications. StarPhone released its first AI Agent smartphone that can independently complete tasks.

5. QTS, a data center operator under Blackstone, has halted the Virginia state project—the largest data center project globally—due to community opposition and power bottlenecks. Biren Technology plans to place H shares to raise about HKD 6.069 billion.

Geopolitics

1. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Europe is unlikely to offer constructive ideas to mediate the Ukraine issue. Russia’s presidential press secretary said the country is open to peace talks and hopes the United States can play a mediation role.

2. Israeli forces shelled the town of Dahresh Shirin in southern Lebanon with artillery. The head of Israel’s General Staff warned that if the ceasefire agreement is violated, Israel is ready to launch an offensive in Lebanon at any time. A shooting incident in New York’s Coney Island left 8 people injured.

3. In Yemen’s Hodeidah, in the southwest sea area, a cargo ship triggered a distress alert, saying it is being attacked by unidentified armed attackers. The number of merchant ships escorted by U.S. forces through the Strait of Hormuz dropped sharply to 70, escalating regional tensions.

4. Three sons of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Khamenei attended public farewell ceremonies in Tehran. Maritime trade between Iran and Qatar resumed after being disrupted for about five months.

5. In Ukraine’s Chernobyl nuclear exclusion zone, wildfires and strong winds formed a “fire tornado.” The fire is not yet fully under control, but radiation levels remain within normal range.

Stock Markets and Thematic Investing

1. Dongfang Shenghong expects first-half net profit to grow 987%–1,195% year over year. China Merchants Energy Shipping expects first-half net profit to grow 214%–248%. Tianshan Aluminum expects first-half net profit to grow 101.52%.

2. Several funds, including Invesco Nasdaq 100 Technology ETF and the CSI BioTechnology ETF (Harvest Fund), suspended trading on July 6 or issued risk warnings because their trading prices in the secondary market were trading at significant premiums.

3. Hsingye Technology, a leather enterprise, gained seven consecutive daily price limits after proposing to acquire indium phosphide business. The CSRC warned to strictly investigate any market manipulation disguised as technology-related activity. Cathay Haitong noted that thematic investing in areas such as robotics, commercial spaceflight, and new AI materials has risen again.

4. JD plans to use robots to replace 700,000 delivery workers, drawing attention to the wave of logistics automation. Cainiao’s domestic supply-chain business will be merged into Alibaba’s e-commerce.

5. The maiden flight of the Long March 10th Yi is scheduled to lock in July 10 to 13. It will verify the world’s first “seaborne net-recovery” technology. China successfully launched 15 sets of satellites from the Qianfan polar-orbit constellation.

Market Sentiment: The market overall is showing a “icy and fiery” split—AI hardware and interim-report performance stocks are leading strongly. However, concerns about an AI bubble, geopolitical tensions, and rising volatility in the crypto market are boosting risk-avoidance sentiment. Investors should remain alert to structural opportunities after short-term shocks.

📡 On-the-hour Updates | 22:00-23:00

1. The number of merchant vessels escorted by the U.S. through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply dropped to 70, far below the pre-conflict average of 138 per day, suggesting that rising regional tensions may disrupt global oil and trade flows.

2. Analyst Guo Mingchi predicts that the foldable iPhone will replay the iPhone X pattern: shipments in 2H26 are expected to be around 7–8 million units, with a price of about US$2,300–2,500. Initial supply constraints may drive up resale prices.

3. A research note from China Merchants Securities states that market adjustments triggered by Meta’s sale of computing power are not a sign of non-computing-related oversupply; after near-term disruptions, focus should shift to a dual track of technology “repairs” and the performance of the interim reports.

4. A research report from Cathay Haitong points out that investment themes such as robotics, commercial aerospace, AI new materials (e.g., CCL/high-end MLCC/indium phosphide), and the revitalization of Xinjiang are seeing a resurgence.

5. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu says that unless Hamas’ armed capabilities are completely dismantled and Gaza is demilitarized, Israel will not allow the start of reconstruction efforts in Gaza.

6. It has been reported that Changxin Memory has secretly begun developing and producing “bonding DRAM” in Hefei, aiming to achieve high-performance DRAM manufacturing without using EUV lithography machines.

7. China successfully launched the Qianfan 15-satellite 15-group (batch) into orbit. A Long March 8A carrier rocket launched from the Hainan commercial spaceport placed the satellites into their planned orbit.

8. SK hynix plans to raise US$29 billion through a U.S. listing, aiming to attract AI investors and directly compete in the AI memory chip market.

📡 Hourly News Update | 21:00-22:00

1. Guinea-Bissau confirms its first case of monkeypox. The health authorities have initiated the national response mechanism, and the public is urged to stay vigilant.

2. Wildfires continue to spread in southern France. The burned area has reached 1,500 hectares. Seven hundred firefighters are involved in the firefighting efforts, and 80 residents have been evacuated.

3. Yunzhisheng’s share price plunges by 90%, exposing the drawbacks of an AI project-based model and triggering market concerns about the bursting of an AI bubble.

4. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decides not to comply with a ruling by the Supreme Court, intensifying the constitutional crisis—marking a first in history.

5. Citigroup expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to restart rate cuts in October, as the reasons for tightening have disappeared. This could be positive for both cryptocurrency and liquidity in the RWA market.

6. The Long March 7th Y launch of the Changzheng-10B (the first flight of the “Long March 10B”) is scheduled to take place from July 10 to July 13, validating the world’s first “marine net system recovery” technology.

7. China’s first batch of 80 tons of aid for disaster relief in Venezuela departs from Beijing, carrying items including generators, water purification trucks, and more.

8. China Merchants Securities points out that after short-term disruptions, attention should shift to two main themes: technology’s recovery and the performance shown in the interim reports. The AI industry trend has not been disproven.

📡 Hourly Update | 20:00-21:00

1. AI research and investment platform LinqAlpha completes a $22 million Series A funding round, led by AVP. It uses AI technology to provide investment analysis for the crypto market.

2. An analysis by The New York Times says that about 1 million $TRUMP retail buyers collectively lost $3.81 billion, while about 500,000 early wallets made $4 billion in profit, forming a typical meme-coin wealth transfer.

3. Israel’s Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces says it has taken control of all core strategic outposts within the Shebaa’a Farms highlands and warns that if a ceasefire agreement is breached, it is ready to launch an offensive in Lebanon at any time.

4. Due to the impact of Typhoon “Maysak,” China’s Ministry of Water Resources has initiated a Level III emergency flood-defense response for Guangxi. It is expected that rivers such as the Xijiang will experience floods above warning levels.

5. Biren Technology plans to place 153 million new H shares at HK$46.20 per share. The total proceeds are about HK$7.069 billion, to accelerate commercialization of the next-generation products and expand production.

6. The Ethereum Foundation has granted 2,469 stETH (about $4.34 million) to the nonprofit developer organization Argot to support Ethereum ecosystem development.

7. Chunshuitang has released a humanoid companion robot with a retail price of about RMB 15,000. It features body temperature, expressions, vision, memory, and proactive chat functions, with mass deliveries planned to begin in August.

8. Germany plans to raise its net new borrowing for 2027 to €118 billion. The move is attributed to debt-service costs increasing due to tax revenue coming in below expectations and rising interest rates.

📡 Top-of-the-hour News Update | 19:00-20:00

1. The press secretary for the President of Russia, Peskov, said Russia is open to peace talks and expects the United States to play a mediating role. He also accused the European Union of turning into a military and political bloc, which has worsened the situation in Ukraine.

2. Affected by Typhoon “Maysak,” parts of services on the Guangzhou–Zhanjiang High-Speed Railway, the Shenzhen–Zhanjiang Railway, the Shanghai–Kunming Railway, the Beijing–Guangzhou Railway, and other routes have been suspended from July 5 to July 7.

3. ByteDance and Alibaba, in response to new regulatory rules, will discontinue the humanoid AI agent feature in their AI applications.

4. The commercial attaché at Iran’s embassy in Qatar said that maritime trade between Iran and Qatar has resumed after an interruption of about five months.

5. In Ukraine’s Chernobyl nuclear exclusion zone, a “fire tornado” has formed due to wildfires and strong winds. The fire has not yet been fully contained, but radiation levels are currently within normal ranges.

6. In the cryptocurrency sector, Solana’s number of active addresses over the past 7 days reached 31.38 million, up 38% year over year. It ranks first among public chains. “Maji Big Brother” opened a leveraged ETH long position worth $15.84 million with 25x leverage, facing high liquidation risk.

7. QTS, a data center operator under Blackstone, has halted Virginia’s largest data center project, citing real-world challenges such as community opposition and power bottlenecks.

8. OpenAI has reportedly submitted an IPO application in secret, aiming to go public in 2027 at a valuation of $1 trillion. It has also proactively offered the U.S. government a 5% equity stake to hedge regulatory risk.

📡 On the Hour Update | 18:00-19:00

1. OPEC+ agreed to raise oil production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August. Seven countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, adjusted their output and reiterated their commitment to market stability.

2. Bitcoin broke above $62,000. The probability of the U.S. cryptocurrency bill, the “CLARITY Act,” being signed rose to 52%, with market sentiment neutral to slightly weak.

3. NVIDIA server assembler Foxconn saw a 40%+ quarter-on-quarter increase in sales, exceeding expectations. AI rack shipments are expected to maintain momentum, highlighting growth in demand for AI hardware.

4. The National Defense Department deployed to prevent floods and typhoons. The National Meteorological Center issued six warnings. In eastern Guangxi, there were locally extremely heavy rains, and Dalian, Liaoning launched a Level IV flood-control emergency response.

5. Three sons of Iran’s late Supreme Leader Khamenei attended the public farewell ceremony in Tehran. Thousands of people and political and military officials took part, as regional tensions remain high.

6. South Africa’s tax authority released a draft guideline on taxation of crypto assets. China’s National Payments Clearing Association warned of cross-border gambling risks involving virtual currencies, with regulatory developments coming rapidly.

7. Houthi forces in Yemen attacked government troops, killing 14 people. A cargo ship was also struck in waters near Yemen, keeping maritime security conditions tense.

8. Next week, more than $1.1 billion worth of tokens will be unlocked. Of this, RAIN will unlock $796 million, and the market is focused on liquidity risks.

📡 On-the-hour Update | 17:00-18:00

1. Several funds, including the Nasdaq 100 Technology ETF (Invesco), the S&P Biotechnology ETF (Jimco), the Nasdaq 100 ETF (Guangfa), the Nasdaq 100 ETF (E Fund), and the China International Gold Silver LOF, were halted on July 6 or issued risk warnings due to large premiums at secondary-market trading prices. Investors are reminded to invest prudently.

2. Bitcoin is hovering near $63,000. The week’s gain is nearly 5%, and slower ETF outflows have boosted bullish sentiment. Michael Saylor predicts that institutional capital inflows will replace the halving as the main driver of future growth.

3. A cargo ship in the southwestern waters near Hodeidah, Yemen, triggered a distress alert, saying it is being attacked by unidentified armed assailants. A shooting incident on Coney Island in New York during U.S. Independence Day left 8 people injured.

4. OPEC+ is expected to approve another increase in oil production in August. After the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement, international oil prices have fallen back to pre-war levels. Brent crude is close to $70, and Wall Street warns of a potential supply glut next year.

5. The Tsinghua special-award recipient Gu Yuxian has joined DeepSeek; its official V4 release is expected in mid-July. StarPhone has launched its first AI Agent phone that can independently complete tasks.

6. South Korea plans to use tax incentives from the chip industry to set up a future fund to support advanced technology investment. Meanwhile, China’s CXMT has started production of a DRAM bonding pilot line; the technology may be ahead of South Korea.

7. Memory giant Jiangbo Long saw first-half net profit surge by 74,393%, earning RMB 11 billion. Pu Yuan Jingdian expects its attributable net profit in the first half to rise year-on-year by 113%-163%.

8. Cui Dongshu of the China Passenger Car Association said that the adjustment to vehicle and vessel taxes is a landmark step in the rollout of the reform toward equal rights for oil and electricity. Namibia’s President Nangetwe has arrived in Guangzhou to begin a state visit to China.

📡 Top-of-hour news | 16:00-17:00

1. Yinding Co., Ltd. expects that net profit in the first half of 2026 will increase year-on-year by 57%–120%, mainly benefiting from the surge in AI compute demand, which drives both the volume and pricing of the fiber market upward.

2. The Israeli army shelled the southern Lebanese town of Deir Sirian while a shooting incident occurred in New York’s Coney Island, leaving 8 people injured, including 4 children; the geopolitical situation remains tense.

3. Binance had a net outflow of $1.23 billion for the week. Ethereum withdrawals hit a three-year high, increasing market volatility; the market capitalization share of memecoins fell to 3.7%, the lowest in three years.

4. Olaid expects first-half net profit to jump year-on-year by 492%–604%; solidifying its core competitiveness in the equipment business is expected to drive revenue growth.

5. JD plans to replace 700,000 delivery workers with robots, drawing attention to a wave of logistics automation; Cainiao’s domestic supply-chain business will be folded into Alibaba’s e-commerce.

6. Best announced that its humanoid robot business is still in the sample stage; related revenue in the first half was only RMB 223,000, which will not have a major impact on performance.

7. Three departments allocated 15,000 units of central disaster-relief supplies to Guangxi and Liaoning to respond to typhoons and heavy rain and flooding.

8. Leather company Xingye Technology won seven consecutive daily-limit moves after planning to acquire an indium phosphide business; the CSRC warned to strictly investigate any attempts to use technology as a pretext to hype stocks.

📡 Top-of-the-hour bulletin | 15:00-16:00

1. Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Europe is unlikely to offer constructive ideas to mediate the Ukraine issue, as geopolitical tensions remain elevated.

2. The “OPEC+” group, in principle, agreed to raise oil production quotas in early August by 188,000 barrels per day, increasing expected crude oil market supply.

3. Hon Hai reported that June sales grew 52.1% year over year, and expects third-quarter AI rack shipments to continue growing.

4. Dongfang Shenghong expects net profit to rise 987%-1195% year over year in the first half, benefiting from improved supply-demand conditions in the petrochemical industry.

5. The Bank of Korea warned that leveraged ETFs tied to Samsung and SK hynix could further amplify market volatility, and plans to strengthen monitoring.

6. China Merchants Energy Shipping expects net profit to increase 214%-248% year over year in the first half, as the tanker shipping market enters a super-strong boom cycle.

7. CICC recommends building a long position in agricultural products on dips over the long term; 2026 may bring a turning point in the cycle.

8. Tianshan Aluminum expects net profit to grow 101.52% year over year in the first half, as higher prices of electrolytic aluminum products drive profitability growth.

📡 8-Hour Recap | July 05, 08:00-16:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets showed a split trend under the interweaving impact of multiple factors: after sharp volatility, the cryptocurrency market rebounded—Bitcoin returned to $63,000, but panic sentiment remains elevated; in geopolitics, Putin and Trump discussed the issue of Ukraine in a phone call, while the situation in the Middle East continues to be tense; competition in the AI and tech sector has intensified, with major players such as OpenAI and Google releasing new models in quick succession, and domestic chips achieving breakthroughs. Overall market sentiment is cautious, with investors focusing on next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meeting minutes.

Macroeconomics

1. China’s logistics business confidence index for June rose to 50.6, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, showing a broadly balanced rebound across regions; the June bulk commodity price index dipped slightly to 130.3. Pressure on corporate input costs continues to ease, but external input-related risks remain high.

2. The size of U.S. Treasury debt reached $39 trillion, with annual interest expenditure of about $1 trillion—an all-time high—intensifying fiscal pressure; the Department of Defense launched a $300 million lithium carbonate strategic reserve program, targeting the procurement of 162,000 tons over five years.

3. The Trump administration unveiled a regulatory reform plan, aiming to repeal 702 administrative regulations and is expected to save $1.5 trillion in costs; meanwhile, it also rolled out a new design for U.S. dollar banknotes, bearing Trump’s signature.

4. Today marks a reduction in fuel surcharges on domestic air routes, with the maximum deduction per segment set at 50 yuan; in the first half of the year, the country opened 92 new international air cargo routes, mainly to and from Europe and Asia, with cargo structure centered on cross-border e-commerce and high-end manufacturing.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin rebounded to $63,000, recovering the drop seen at the end of June. XRP led gains among major coins. However, a surge in exchange deposits suggests increased volatility; if prices break below $60,000 or fall toward $53,000.

2. In the past 24 hours, net liquidations across the entire crypto market totaled $207 million, with losses on short positions of $147 million. A whale account that shorted Bitcoin 40x was forcibly liquidated four times in a row, with total losses of nearly $300,000.

3. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for the eighth consecutive week, setting a record for the longest streak in history. Nearly 1 million wallets holding TRUMP Meme coin are in a loss state, with cumulative losses of about $3.81 billion.

4. Vitalik Buterin released an “Essentials” roadmap for Ethereum, aiming to reduce transaction costs by more than 10x through native STARK verification, among other methods. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 24, indicating extreme fear.

5. In 2025, losses from crypto scams reached $17 billion. Experts noted that AI-driven scamming methods have surpassed improvements in detection tools. In South Korea, the number of new listings by the top five exchanges in the first half plunged 74%, affected by tighter regulation and a sluggish market.

AI and Tech

1. Reportedly, OpenAI will launch GPT-5.6 next week. Google’s Gemini 3.5 Pro is expected to be released on July 17, intensifying competition in the AI space. Apple’s Siri AI is scheduled to launch in the fall, limited to iPhone 15 Pro and above models; unlocking the highest-tier on-device AI models requires 12GB of memory.

2. A team from Peking University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences has developed the world’s first millisecond-level neural dynamic system chip based on phase-change memristors. The brain-modeling speed is reportedly 50–478 times faster than NVIDIA A100.

3. Huawei’s Ting He Ting Bo? (Hua Wei) published a V2 version of the “Dao/Ding Law” paper, detailing the evolution roadmap of Kirin and Ascend chips, and adding engineering details and tested data. The localization rate of domestic semiconductor equipment is expected to rise from 21% in 2025 to about 43% in 2028.

4. Micron is investing about $9.3 billion in Hiroshima, Japan, to expand its wafer fab to produce high-bandwidth memory needed for AI. Shipments are expected in the summer of 2028. U.S. tech giants’ data center leasing commitments hit an all-time high, with scale reaching $850 billion.

5. Alibaba’s Tongyi Qianwen and ByteDance’s Doubao notified users that their AI Agent services will be taken offline on July 15, effective the same day as the implementation of the “Interim Measures for the Administration of Human-Like Interactive Services of Artificial Intelligence,” jointly released by five departments.

Geopolitics

1. Putin and Trump spoke for about 1 hour and 25 minutes. Putin reiterated a preference for resolving the Ukraine issue through political and diplomatic means, while Trump said he is willing to keep mediating the conflict. Zelensky also had a phone call with Trump and agreed on a meeting during the NATO summit.

2. The militaries of China and Russia announced that joint naval exercises “Joint Sea-2026” will be held near Qingdao in July. They will also conduct joint naval patrols in relevant areas of the Pacific Ocean to jointly respond to security challenges.

3. Medvedev warned that Iran possesses “hot nuclear weapons” in the Strait of Hormuz? (Actually, Medvedev referred to the Strait of Hormuz / near there). Once the strait is blocked, global oil transportation would be interrupted. Vessels on the Oman route in the Strait of Hormuz have sharply decreased, and Iran has continued to strengthen control of navigation routes.

4. More than 165 million people in the U.S. face significant or extreme heat-related health risks caused by a rare heatwave, and many places have refreshed their highest temperature records for the same period. A subway train near Washington, D.C. derailed after tracks buckled due to the extreme heat.

5. Israel for the first time confirmed that during the conflict involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, it deployed the Iron Dome air-defense system to the UAE to strengthen military cooperation between the two countries. A Hamas delegation met with Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran, reaffirming support for the Palestinian cause.

Stock Market and Regulation

1. More than 52 billion yuan in funds withdrew from A-share technology stocks. Nomura Securities believes the storage supply shortage will persist and AI demand growth has not yet hit its peak. Cathay Thong? (Guotai Junan?) Tong? released its first broker semiannual earnings preview, expecting a year-over-year increase of 27%–30% in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of the year.

2. The CSRC revised refinancing rules, establishing a system for shelf issuance of directed share placements. Pricing benchmark dates will be unified as the first day of the issuance period, and the lock-up period will be extended to 36 months to compress room for arbitrage.

3. The stock price of Nayuki Tea? (Nayuki the Tea) fell 96%. Due to strategic missteps, it shifted from high-end positioning to value-for-money, landing it in a predicament of store closures and losses. In the late stage of the bull market, retail investors’ “profit effect” was weak, with more than 200 billion yuan in wealth transferred to top-tier major holders.

4. PC and memory hard drive prices have remained at elevated levels. Distributors suggest that those without urgent need should not buy, and prices are not expected to fall for at least one year. Memory market conditions in Huaqiangbei have recovered, but

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📡 Hourly News Report | 14:00-15:00

1. Israel has for the first time confirmed that during the Israel–US–Iran conflict, it deployed the “Iron Dome” air defense system to the UAE to strengthen military cooperation between the two countries.

2. OPEC+ has, in principle, agreed to raise its oil production target by 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, while continuing the gradual path of production increases.

3. In 2025, losses from cryptocurrency scams reached $17 billion. Experts note that AI-driven scam methods have surpassed advancements in detection tools.

4. Apple’s Siri AI will launch in the fall, limited to iPhone 15 Pro and above. It also requires 12GB of memory to unlock the highest-tier on-device AI model.

5. U.S. tech giants’ data center leasing commitments hit a record high, reaching $850 billion, reflecting a surge in demand for AI computing power.

6. Iranian citizens mourn the late Khamenei. Trump said it was “all fake crying,” which was rebutted by Iran.

7. China’s independently developed nuclear fusion reactor superconducting magnets have completed acceptance testing. The “artificial sun” project is expected to be completed by the end of 2027.

8. Wang Guizhong from Harvest Fund says she is optimistic about China’s technology assets and the accelerating domestic AI catch-up trend, with particular focus on optical communications and semiconductor equipment.

📡 On-the-hour News Briefing | 13:00-14:00

1. Russian President Putin held a phone call with U.S. President Trump lasting about 1 hour and 25 minutes. Putin reiterated that he favors resolving the issue in Ukraine through political and diplomatic means, and reported that Russian forces have fully taken control of Konstantinovka.

2. Alibaba Tongyi Qianwen and ByteDance’s Doubao notified users that their AI Agent service will be taken offline on July 15. The same day, the “Interim Measures for the Management of AI-Driven Human-like Interactive Services,” jointly released by five departments, will take effect.

3. The China Securities Regulatory Commission revised the rules on refinancing. It will establish a shelf-issuance system for directed share placements, unify the pricing benchmark day as the first day of the offering period, and extend the lock-up period to 36 months to compress arbitrage space.

4. Total box office for the 2026 summer film season (including pre-sales) exceeded 2 billion yuan. Among them, Minions and the Big Monster opened for 3 days and its box office surpassed 90 million yuan.

5. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the Oman route has sharply declined. Iran continues to strengthen control over the waterway. On Saturday, at least 8 vessels suddenly turned back while traversing.

6. China’s domestic semiconductor equipment industry is entering a boom cycle. The localization rate is expected to rise from 21% in 2025 to about 43% in 2028, as leading companies such as NAURA and North Huachuang accelerate expansion.

7. Guangxi was affected by Typhoon “Maysak,” with heavy rain to torrential rain. The regional meteorological bureau upgraded its emergency response for major meteorological disasters (torrential rain) to Level II.

8. Silicon-based Flow (for listing in Hong Kong) saw its valuation jump from 280 million yuan to 7.74 billion yuan. However, its gross margin turned negative and its cumulative losses exceeded 400 million yuan, facing intense competition from cloud computing giants.

📡 Top of the hour updates | 12:00-13:00

1. Next week, the market will focus on the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meeting minutes, with attention on the rate-hike path and its impact on gold prices.

2. Uber has paused its food delivery expansion plans in five of the seven European countries, while also seeking to acquire Delivery Hero.

3. France has obstructed the UK’s accession to the EU defense fund, resulting in reduced lending to itself; this involves the MBDA missile-maker project being disqualified.

4. It is rumored that OpenAI will launch GPT-5.6 next week. Google Gemini 3.5 Pro is expected to be released on July 17, as competition in the AI field intensifies.

5. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 24, indicating extreme fear and a highly pessimistic investor sentiment.

6. China’s AI chip startup, Orient Compute (Orient Algos/东方算信), has adopted 3D stacking technology to bypass U.S. export restrictions, quietly ending its stealth mode.

7. A subway train near Washington, D.C. derailed after tracks bent due to high temperatures, with no reported casualties, during the Independence Day celebrations.

8. In 2026, China’s auto industry will see the largest-ever scale of standards upgrades: 82 new national standards will be implemented in the first place throughout the year, covering areas such as collision, battery, and software security.

📡 On-the-hour news | 11:00-12:00

1. Medvedev warns that Iran has “thermonuclear weapons.” If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, global oil transportation will be interrupted, escalating tensions in the Middle East.

2. More than 52 billion yuan in capital withdrew from A-share technology stocks. Nomura Securities believes that supply shortages in storage will continue, and AI demand growth has not yet peaked.

3. New regulations issued by the National Film Administration and others support cinema transformation. This year, the output value of the entire film industry chain will exceed 200 billion yuan, with over 90 films released in the summer season.

4. A whale account that shorted Bitcoin at 40x leverage was forcibly liquidated four times in a row, with total losses nearing $300,000, highlighting risks from market volatility.

5. Lin Junyang, former chief technical officer of Alibaba’s Qwen, reflects that Qwen3’s hybrid reasoning mode is insufficient and has shifted to supporting the Agent direction, emphasizing the challenges of reinforcement learning.

6. The number of new coins listed on South Korea’s five major exchanges in the first half of the year plummeted 74%, affected by tighter regulation and a sluggish market, cooling the cryptocurrency market.

7. Trump kicks off a speech at the 250th anniversary celebration of the founding of the United States. He says the U.S. will never be allowed to decline and announces that after landing on the Moon, he will then head to Mars.

8. Cathay Haitong released its first broker mid-year earnings preview, forecasting that in the first half, net profit attributable to shareholders will grow 27%-30% year over year, and that second-quarter earnings will double quarter over quarter.

📡 On-the-hour News | 10:00-11:00

1. The militaries of China and Russia announced that they will hold the “Joint Sea-2026” joint military exercise near Qingdao in July, and conduct joint maritime patrols in relevant areas of the Pacific Ocean, aiming to jointly address security challenges.

2. Over the past 24 hours, liquidations in encrypted cryptocurrencies across the entire internet totaled $207 million. Long liquidations were not specified, while short positions lost $147 million. Market volatility was intense, and institutions have viewed the divergence between Bitcoin and the performance of U.S. stocks as a short-term phenomenon.

3. Teams from Peking University and the Chinese Academy of Sciences developed the world’s first millisecond-level neuromorphic dynamic system chip based on phase-change memristors. Its brain-modeling speed is 50-478 times faster than NVIDIA’s A100.

4. More than 165 million people in the United States face “major” or “extreme” heat-related health risks caused by a rare heatwave, with many places breaking the highest historical temperature records for the same period.

5. A Hamas delegation met with Iran’s foreign minister in Tehran, reaffirming support for the Palestinian cause. Iran emphasized that it will continue supporting until Palestinians achieve self-determination.

6. The size of U.S. Treasury debt has reached $39 trillion. Annual interest payments are about $1 trillion, a record high, intensifying fiscal pressure. The Department of Defense has launched a $300 million lithium procurement plan to replenish reserves.

7. China’s Navy vessels Qi Jiguang and Kunlunshan arrived in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, for a visit. The navies of China and Vietnam deepen cooperation in areas such as ship exchanges and joint patrols.

8. Nayuki’s (奈雪的茶) stock price fell 96%. Due to strategic missteps, it shifted from a premium positioning to a value-for-money strategy, facing store closures and losses. In the later stage of the bull market, retail investors’ profitability was weak, and more than 2 trillion yuan in wealth transferred to top-tier major investors.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 09:00-10:00

1. In June, China’s Logistics Performance Index rose to 50.6%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, showing a balanced rebound across regions.

2. The average retail price of spirits at terminals rebounded overall. Feitian Moutai and Guojiao 1573 led the way, with total prices hitting the highest level in 18 days.

3. Storage market prices in Huaqiangbei picked up. Solid-state drive and RAM prices from Samsung, Kingston, and others increased, but shipments remain sluggish.

4. Bitcoin broke through $63,000, reclaiming the losses from the end of June. XRP led gains among major coins, and market sentiment is bullish.

5. Micron plans to invest about $9.3 billion in Hiroshima, Japan, to expand its fab to produce high-bandwidth memory required for AI. Shipments are expected in summer 2028.

6. The Trump administration released a regulatory reform plan, proposing to repeal 702 administrative regulations, with an estimated cost saving of $1.5 trillion.

7. A shortage of Russian fuel is heating up the new energy vehicle market. Sales of Chinese-brand EVs and plug-in hybrid models have surged.

8. In June, China’s bulk commodities price index fell 1.7% month over month to 130.3, easing pressure on companies’ raw material costs.

📡 Hourly News Update | 08:00-09:00

1. Putin and Trump discuss the Ukraine issue in a phone call. Trump says he is willing to continue mediating the conflict. Zelensky also talks with Trump and agrees that they will meet during the NATO summit.

2. Bitcoin rebounds to above $60,000, but a surge in exchange deposits suggests volatility will increase. If it falls below $60,000 or dips to as low as $53,000.

3. A paper on version 2.0 of Huawei’s “Taoding Law” is released by Huai Tingbo. It details the evolution roadmap of the Kirin and Ascend chipsets, adding engineering specifics and test data.

4. China’s first Y-12F atmospheric multi-purpose survey aircraft makes a successful maiden flight in Harbin. It has the capability to detect multiple pollutants and greenhouse gases.

5. In June, China’s bulk commodity price index edged down to 130.3 points. Pressure on companies’ raw material costs continues to ease, but external input-driven risks remain high.

6. Vitalik Buterin publishes the “Simplified Version” roadmap for Ethereum, aiming to cut transaction costs by more than 10 times through native STARK verification, among other measures.

7. After the US-Iran conflict, polypropylene prices rise sharply. Deguon New Materials says it can achieve effective price transmission and has both technical and brand premiums.

8. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for the eighth consecutive week, setting a new historical longest streak. Nearly 1 million wallets holding TRUMP Meme Coin are currently in a loss state.