Crypto十三东生
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Crypto十三东生
对我而言，Web3不仅是技术演进，更是生产关系的变革。
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市场早报
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Binance Vision 晚间新闻
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这么高的吗？
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币圈很多人幻想C路线，用极小本金靠高复利暴富，现实里要扛住漫长时间不赚钱，绝大多数人熬不住，还容易爆仓亏光。
槐序十七
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You definitely know the answer—those who have come out of the crypto world are not ordinary people.
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你们赚钱和亏钱后，是一个怎么样的心里状态呢？反正我是亏完钱后，反而睡着觉了，心里踏实了。我是不是有病啊😦
大吉大利！
From Crypto十三东生
ChangXin refuses to cut Apple’s price demands Asking price not lower than Samsung Electronics and SK hynix
China News Network & Weibo, Aug 5—On the 5th, according to a report by South Korean media outlet “Digital Daily,” Apple attempted to negotiate a lower procurement price for DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) with ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), but was refused. CXMT insisted that its quoted price must be no lower than that of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix—even higher.
The reason is straightforward: domestic Chinese companies such as Huawei and Xiaomi have locked in CXMT’s production capacity through long-term contracts, so CXMT does not need to accommodate Apple’s harsh terms.
The report notes that in the past, large tech companies often used the threat of “switching to procure China-made products if their demands were not met” as a bargaining chip. However, this route is now effectively blocked. With capacity being redirected heavily toward high-value AI server memory (HBM) rather than low-end general-purpose DRAM, and with China no longer offering low-cost replacement options, the market landscape is supporting memory prices of various types—including general-purpose DRAM.
China News Network & Weibo, Aug 5—On the 5th, according to a report by South Korean media outlet “Digital Daily,” Apple attempted to negotiate a lower procurement price for DRAM (dynamic random-access memory) with ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT), but was refused. CXMT insisted that its quoted price must be no lower than that of Samsung Electronics and SK hynix—even higher.
The reason is straightforward: domestic Chinese companies such as Huawei and Xiaomi have locked in CXMT’s production capacity through long-term contracts, so CXMT does not need to accommodate Apple’s harsh terms.
The report notes that in the past, large tech companies often used the threat of “switching to procure China-made products if their demands were not met” as a bargaining chip. However, this route is now effectively blocked. With capacity being redirected heavily toward high-value AI server memory (HBM) rather than low-end general-purpose DRAM, and with China no longer offering low-cost replacement options, the market landscape is supporting memory prices of various types—including general-purpose DRAM.
Today’s Morning News
API price comparison among domestic and international large model vendors: what are the gaps?
After sorting through the data, we find that in terms of API pricing, domestic vendors generally offer lower prices than their international counterparts. In particular, DeepSeek has a clear price advantage over its peers. However, although the price war for AI coding has already started, pricing is only one of the measures for large models, and it cannot fully determine the final outcome of the AI coding market.
After sorting through the data, we find that in terms of API pricing, domestic vendors generally offer lower prices than their international counterparts. In particular, DeepSeek has a clear price advantage over its peers. However, although the price war for AI coding has already started, pricing is only one of the measures for large models, and it cannot fully determine the final outcome of the AI coding market.
Middle East: Fighting while talking—the Strait of Hormuz is the key variable
Trump said he received a request from Iran and reached a framework agreement (including opening the strait), so the strikes were cancelled. Iran immediately denied it: no agreement was reached; the strait policy has not changed in any way—so long as U.S. hostile actions continue, the strait will remain closed. The Saudi crown prince urged Trump not to fight in the middle. Israel said a ceasefire would not happen unless Hamas disarms.
$CL
The current picture: Trump wants to make a call to end the war → Iran won’t give face → Saudi acts as the mediator → Israel keeps bombing. With the Strait of Hormuz closed → oil prices rise → inflation is hard to bring down → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates → BTC and risky assets come under pressure. This transmission chain is the most core logic line for understanding today’s market.
Trump said he received a request from Iran and reached a framework agreement (including opening the strait), so the strikes were cancelled. Iran immediately denied it: no agreement was reached; the strait policy has not changed in any way—so long as U.S. hostile actions continue, the strait will remain closed. The Saudi crown prince urged Trump not to fight in the middle. Israel said a ceasefire would not happen unless Hamas disarms.
$CL
The current picture: Trump wants to make a call to end the war → Iran won’t give face → Saudi acts as the mediator → Israel keeps bombing. With the Strait of Hormuz closed → oil prices rise → inflation is hard to bring down → the Federal Reserve dares not cut rates → BTC and risky assets come under pressure. This transmission chain is the most core logic line for understanding today’s market.
AI sector: three brokerages use the same playbook—pullbacks are normal multiple tops
Guangfa Strategy: In A-share history, a “single top” is extremely rare (only once in 2015). Since AI assets are not under pressure from a balance-sheet de-leveraging or a rapid reversal in earnings, “the worst case will still be repeated multiple tops.” After the fast selloff in July, there is still considerable room for correction.
CICC Research: This round of pullback can be likened to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Before the final major top, it has already gone through at least four rounds of sizable corrections. The triggers for this downturn (industry setbacks + macro headwinds + valuation overheating) are highly similar to the dot-com bubble. Stabilization requires three conditions to align: deleveraging, the Fed easing, and earnings report catalysts.
CITIC Securities: In the short term, whether or not the Fed hikes in September will weigh on US stocks; but in the long run, the AI narrative is expected to continue. Refer to the “Productivity and Jobs Working Group”’s positive stance on AI. #Ai
Guangfa Strategy: In A-share history, a “single top” is extremely rare (only once in 2015). Since AI assets are not under pressure from a balance-sheet de-leveraging or a rapid reversal in earnings, “the worst case will still be repeated multiple tops.” After the fast selloff in July, there is still considerable room for correction.
CICC Research: This round of pullback can be likened to the 2000 dot-com bubble. Before the final major top, it has already gone through at least four rounds of sizable corrections. The triggers for this downturn (industry setbacks + macro headwinds + valuation overheating) are highly similar to the dot-com bubble. Stabilization requires three conditions to align: deleveraging, the Fed easing, and earnings report catalysts.
CITIC Securities: In the short term, whether or not the Fed hikes in September will weigh on US stocks; but in the long run, the AI narrative is expected to continue. Refer to the “Productivity and Jobs Working Group”’s positive stance on AI. #Ai
Three top-tier brokers all spoke today: the AI pullback isn’t the finish line—it’s just the bumps along the way. Guangfa said, "Worst case is still a multi-top." CICC compared it to the dot-com bubble in 2000 (before the major top, there were at least four big pullbacks). CITIC said, "The AI narrative over the long term is expected to continue." People climbing the mountain shout "We’ve reached the top" from halfway up, but anyone who has seen the map knows there’s still road ahead. Taco
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玺九爺HBJX
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It’s that time again—weekend time. Next week, the focus will be on Friday’s non-farm payrolls data (most likely a negative factor). The last time it was positive was because oil prices had dropped significantly at the time, making the data look a bit better. This time, oil prices have risen again, and with the stock market turbulence in July, this data likely won’t look good.
Let’s talk about the rate-hike situation. This week’s policy meeting kept rates unchanged and did not raise them. If that’s the case, the odds of a rate hike pushed further into the future will only keep increasing. You can understand this as: if they don’t hike this time, they might hike next time—something along those lines.
Now let’s discuss the storage-sector行情. After a massive drop, we saw an oversold rebound of more than 40%—this is the first time in history. I’ve never seen a single day with such a huge surge. And the situation in the Korean stock market is even more extreme: the KOSPI index plunged 15% the day before, then jumped up 17% and closed higher the next day—truly unbelievable.
So, is this rebound a bottoming process? That’s what many people are asking right now. As everyone knows, I’m a technical-analysis person. Looking at it technically: after the rebound, prices tend to give back about half of the gains. If it is indeed a bottoming market, then prices could rise from this level. If it isn’t bottoming, prices may continue to push down to test the next lower low. I’m leaning toward the second scenario—meaning it’s quite possible we’ll see another round of probing lower.
Since the overall trend of the Nasdaq is in a correction cycle, I expect the Nasdaq 100 index to return to the 580–610 range. If the broader market moves downward and the market breaks lower, it’s hard to fight it. The strategy would be to stay on the sidelines and wait until the pullback creates opportunities—if no opportunity comes, then just look for short-term trades.
Bitcoin’s technical picture has become increasingly clear over the past two days. As long as 67,500 here is not broken through, there is a very high likelihood of a top and then a sell-off wave. Based on time-and-space measures, the move is expected to drop to around 49,000–53,000 in the period around 8.10 to 8.15. As for Ethereum, the descending triangle falling-wedge support has already weakened to around 1,380—this is the level Ethereum may reach in the short to mid term… I’ll wait and see for this long six-month long liquidation of longs… $BTC
Let’s talk about the rate-hike situation. This week’s policy meeting kept rates unchanged and did not raise them. If that’s the case, the odds of a rate hike pushed further into the future will only keep increasing. You can understand this as: if they don’t hike this time, they might hike next time—something along those lines.
Now let’s discuss the storage-sector行情. After a massive drop, we saw an oversold rebound of more than 40%—this is the first time in history. I’ve never seen a single day with such a huge surge. And the situation in the Korean stock market is even more extreme: the KOSPI index plunged 15% the day before, then jumped up 17% and closed higher the next day—truly unbelievable.
So, is this rebound a bottoming process? That’s what many people are asking right now. As everyone knows, I’m a technical-analysis person. Looking at it technically: after the rebound, prices tend to give back about half of the gains. If it is indeed a bottoming market, then prices could rise from this level. If it isn’t bottoming, prices may continue to push down to test the next lower low. I’m leaning toward the second scenario—meaning it’s quite possible we’ll see another round of probing lower.
Since the overall trend of the Nasdaq is in a correction cycle, I expect the Nasdaq 100 index to return to the 580–610 range. If the broader market moves downward and the market breaks lower, it’s hard to fight it. The strategy would be to stay on the sidelines and wait until the pullback creates opportunities—if no opportunity comes, then just look for short-term trades.
Bitcoin’s technical picture has become increasingly clear over the past two days. As long as 67,500 here is not broken through, there is a very high likelihood of a top and then a sell-off wave. Based on time-and-space measures, the move is expected to drop to around 49,000–53,000 in the period around 8.10 to 8.15. As for Ethereum, the descending triangle falling-wedge support has already weakened to around 1,380—this is the level Ethereum may reach in the short to mid term… I’ll wait and see for this long six-month long liquidation of longs… $BTC
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