The move to 97,924 can be interpreted in few different but structurally valid ways. Here are both scenarios phrased clearly and cleanly: 🔹 Scenario 1 — It was Wave B of a larger A-B-C correction If we count 126,200 → 80,600 as Wave A, then the rally to 97,924 is a shallow Wave B (≈38.2% retracement). Because B did not reach the 50–61.8% zone, this suggests a weak B wave, which typically leads to a strong Wave C down. Implication: Wave C would likely extend to at least equality with Wave A. Wave A length = 45,600 Projected C target = 97,924 − 45,600 = 52,324 ➡ This scenario expects a much deeper decline toward the 52K area ➡ Structure = A–B–C correction (bearish larger degree) 🔹 Scenario 2 — It was nested correction aka wave B inside of Wave IV from that unfinish correction??? If we instead count the structure as a 5-wave impulse from 126,200, then: Wave I = 126,200 → 102,000 Wave II = 102,000 → 116,400 Wave III = 116,400 → 80,600 (extended) Wave IV = 80,600 → 97,924 In this case, the move to 97,924 is a complex Wave IV correction. ✔ Wave IV retraced ~50% of Wave III (not Typical but i guess sometimes ITS happen as this is wild market with some exceptions???) Wave III range = 116,400 → 80,600 = 35,800 50% retracement = 80,600 + 17,900 = 98,500 area Price topped at 97,924, which is very close to the 50% retracement zone ✔ Wave IV often: Moves sideways and overlaps internally Contains smaller A-B-C swings inside it Takes longer in time Looks like multiple “B waves” during its development All of those match the current behavior. Implication: The market is now in Wave V down, which is typically weaker after an extended Wave III. Projected Wave V targets: Weak V (0.618 × Wave I) → ≈ 82.9–83K Normal V (equal to Wave I) → ≈ 73.7K ➡ This scenario expects one more drop, but not as deep as 52K ➡ Structure = 1-2-3-4-5 impulse completing a correction What Happens If Price Stops at 83K? If price declines and finds strong support near 83K: ✔ That fits a weak Wave V ✔ That completes a full 5-wave impulse down from 126,200 ✔ That means the entire larger correction is finished After a completed 5-wave structure, market typically begins a larger degree reversal or new bullish cycle Otherwise, we will lead into 73K If price fails to hold 83K and continues lower: Wave I length = 24,200 97,924 − 24,200 = 73,724 ✔ This would still be a valid Wave V completion ✔ Structure remains a 5-wave impulse, just with a deeper final leg So a move to 73K does NOT automatically mean Wave C to 52K It can still be the final Wave V flush before reversal So we will see which one is the true one. #USIranStandoff $BTC
│ └─ A.c: 89,600 → 97,924 (length 8,324) — final leg of A (~61.8% of total A)
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├─ B (wave B’s B)
│ └─ retracement of B.A (downward correction after nested A) — can be simple or complex (The closest scenario, THIS IS WHERE WE ARE NOW) low as per now 872xx
│
└─ C (wave B’s C)
├─ C.a: first upward impulse of C (mirrors A.a proportionally)
├─ C.b: retracement of C.a (mirrors A.b proportionally)
└─ C.c: final push of C (mirrors A.c proportionally or extended upto 1618x
My Observations:
Wave B forms its own ABC, just like a mini-wave structure nested inside a larger trend. Make analyst & trader think its an upward trend
Wave B can retrace deeper than 61.8% fib which usually wave II Elliot use. Which explain why the correction has become so deep way more than usual
After Wave B completes its ABC (with A, B, C subwaves), the next larger wave C continues the trend — in our case, for this scenario, a downward continuation of the larger correction from 126,200 → 84,450. Total A length = 97,924 – 84,450 = 13,474
Low 872xx + 13474 if C as a whole will be equal Length with A
Low 872xx (or what ever number later) + 13,474 × 1.618 ≈ 21,800
C end: 87,234 + 21,800 ≈ 109,034 (extended case of C) Now ABC larger correction Calculate B max range (based on A = 41,750) Shallow B (38.2%): 84,450 + 0.382 × 41,750 ≈ 84,450 + 15,934 ≈ 100,384
Normal B (50%): 84,450 + 0.5 × 41,750 = 84,450 + 20,875 ≈ 105,325
Deep B (61.8%): 84,450 + 0.618 × 41,750 ≈ 84,450 + 25,797 ≈ 110,247 So our extended version of C based on chart match with max deep of B wave as well (109k)
More Coincidence? Let's see .
This is for now, this is terminal wave and nested correction, very complex wave which add more complexity to determine the current position either this is wave B or Supercycle continuation. Nested C target: 100k → 109k (depending on retracement
Price action will prove the real next movement. failure to break above 110,2k upto 126,200 favors continuation of Wave C
Note : If Previous correction was not complete its 5 waves @84450 but 80600 , then we are already inside of C downward.
none could predict the exact number in this kind of market i will just prioritize arround 80-78k area first and see what is going to happen after some rebound. $BTC #WhoIsNextFedChair due to you know in this market, many circumtances that somehow makes it shorter not Gonna reach the target,premature, extended, deep retrace, etc etc so i am not really into one certain number.
so... are we going under 80600? 75,9-73k? in this post i said prepare for the worst scenario . it looks like a trap an plot twist right? and see what happened today, market dump just when everyone is not aware and a bit too late. we re back into the old scenario leg V .....hahahahhaha #WhoIsNextFedChair $BTC
Ayu A Suryabudhi
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reached 86k area. That's actually so long..... Target of 88,2 & 86k achieved. Actually i don't expect this, because the leg gets an extension again. Gotta be careful for the next move. This looks like a trap & plot twist. Prepare for the worst case (in case). #GrayscaleBNBETFFiling $BTC
Shared this few hours ago while it was 83k and now its already happening dump to 81k, Looks like it followed the wave iv scenario
Ayu A Suryabudhi
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Updates..
The move to 97,924 can be interpreted in few different but structurally valid ways. Here are both scenarios phrased clearly and cleanly: 🔹 Scenario 1 — It was Wave B of a larger A-B-C correction If we count 126,200 → 80,600 as Wave A, then the rally to 97,924 is a shallow Wave B (≈38.2% retracement). Because B did not reach the 50–61.8% zone, this suggests a weak B wave, which typically leads to a strong Wave C down. Implication: Wave C would likely extend to at least equality with Wave A. Wave A length = 45,600 Projected C target = 97,924 − 45,600 = 52,324 ➡ This scenario expects a much deeper decline toward the 52K area ➡ Structure = A–B–C correction (bearish larger degree) 🔹 Scenario 2 — It was nested correction aka wave B inside of Wave IV from that unfinish correction??? If we instead count the structure as a 5-wave impulse from 126,200, then: Wave I = 126,200 → 102,000 Wave II = 102,000 → 116,400 Wave III = 116,400 → 80,600 (extended) Wave IV = 80,600 → 97,924 In this case, the move to 97,924 is a complex Wave IV correction. ✔ Wave IV retraced ~50% of Wave III (not Typical but i guess sometimes ITS happen as this is wild market with some exceptions???) Wave III range = 116,400 → 80,600 = 35,800 50% retracement = 80,600 + 17,900 = 98,500 area Price topped at 97,924, which is very close to the 50% retracement zone ✔ Wave IV often: Moves sideways and overlaps internally Contains smaller A-B-C swings inside it Takes longer in time Looks like multiple “B waves” during its development All of those match the current behavior. Implication: The market is now in Wave V down, which is typically weaker after an extended Wave III. Projected Wave V targets: Weak V (0.618 × Wave I) → ≈ 82.9–83K Normal V (equal to Wave I) → ≈ 73.7K ➡ This scenario expects one more drop, but not as deep as 52K ➡ Structure = 1-2-3-4-5 impulse completing a correction What Happens If Price Stops at 83K? If price declines and finds strong support near 83K: ✔ That fits a weak Wave V ✔ That completes a full 5-wave impulse down from 126,200 ✔ That means the entire larger correction is finished After a completed 5-wave structure, market typically begins a larger degree reversal or new bullish cycle Otherwise, we will lead into 73K If price fails to hold 83K and continues lower: Wave I length = 24,200 97,924 − 24,200 = 73,724 ✔ This would still be a valid Wave V completion ✔ Structure remains a 5-wave impulse, just with a deeper final leg So a move to 73K does NOT automatically mean Wave C to 52K It can still be the final Wave V flush before reversal So we will see which one is the true one. #USIranStandoff $BTC
Reached 27-26. Gotta trust my own Analysis Even if market try to blur it out, not long after that, At the end of the day it Will always happen. Because every number is not a random shit. Adding more into my bags @this price Gotta watch the next movement first, could not assume anything at this moment. #GrayscaleBNBETFFiling $BTC
Ayu A Suryabudhi
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$ZK already start ITS downward impulse before btc expecting 0.027-26 area or maybe lower if i get lucky could be last day to buy cheap chips........ Don't forget to average down #WhoIsNextFedChair $BTC
reached 86k area. That's actually so long..... Target of 88,2 & 86k achieved. Actually i don't expect this, because the leg gets an extension again. Gotta be careful for the next move. This looks like a trap & plot twist. Prepare for the worst case (in case). #GrayscaleBNBETFFiling $BTC
Ayu A Suryabudhi
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Price now 89,5k Next drop Will be Between this 86,850 ≈ 88,272 ≈ 84,554 and back to 87200 area. because the correction already extended i guess it will be shorter just to 88,2k-87k 86 max area Not a signal #TrumpCancelsEUTariffThreat $BTC
Less illusion, more truth. No overwhelming impressive graphic Just number speak it self Analysis vs reality is matched Almost reached 88,2k Price now 88.5 Heading toward 88,2k Let's fly from here ? ;) ahhh let me sleep and rest first. Enough trading for today and share it as well Successfully Catched the bottom Thank God Gotta off for few days Bye bye! $BTC #WEFDavos2026
Ayu A Suryabudhi
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Price now 89,5k Next drop Will be Between this 86,850 ≈ 88,272 ≈ 84,554 and back to 87200 area. because the correction already extended i guess it will be shorter just to 88,2k-87k 86 max area Not a signal #TrumpCancelsEUTariffThreat $BTC
Price now 89,5k Next drop Will be Between this 86,850 ≈ 88,272 ≈ 84,554 and back to 87200 area. because the correction already extended i guess it will be shorter just to 88,2k-87k 86 max area Not a signal #TrumpCancelsEUTariffThreat $BTC
$ZK already start ITS downward impulse before btc expecting 0.027-26 area or maybe lower if i get lucky could be last day to buy cheap chips........ Don't forget to average down #WhoIsNextFedChair $BTC
This level of manipulation...It feels similar to dealing with someone with a personality disorder. Lately this market feels inconsistent, deceptive, and unstable—until it is correctly diagnosed. an identity that keeps shifting—forcing you to constantly re-evaluate what you think is real.
When something keeps changing, our mind instinctively tries to close the loop. It creates cognitive dissonance. One day, price behaves exactly like leg Iv from Earlier correction. Next is leg V down. It went okay and align for a while. Analisis matched with reality.
Next day it violate your structure and shows that it was an impulse. "Okay this is wave iv, the next movement is going up. I'll count how much it can go" Because : It has its own I-V in lower time frame Fib alignment No overlaps Look impulse on tf 15 minutes Clean 5 waves in H1 No violations Simple short duration of correction So your mind was like "Ah, this is impulse right! Next one is wave v!" "Last label is wrong!" "Must be supercycle continuation"
The next day, it destroys that illusion with misaligned Fibonacci relationships. Structure collapse. Your prior model is invalidated. I was like.. "Again???!" Then the following day, it behaves in the complete opposite way and slaps you in the face, revealing that it was never an impulse at all Your mind was like : " I was not being inconsistent, this wave was!!! " " What the hell is this actually? " The identity that keeps shifting, cause identity confusion, it could give you emotional rollercoaster & ptsd from how it operate across multiple label and degree simultaneously.
The crazy part is this: once you finally get the diagnosis right, everything suddenly makes sense. All the madness, inconsistency, and contradictory behavior become coherent under a single explanation. I found the only model that explain all behaviors. The erratic behavior becomes expected. All the nested correction now make sense. Let it correct how much it wants. It has a function. $BTC #TrumpTariffsOnEurope
Price now 87.900 why is it so extreme? where are we actually? wait.. is it even still valid as a retracement ? This is the first time i Saw such a deep retracement like this.
Is this a joke...Still not finish???? No wonder it doesnt wanna go up it still in leg iv still there is upcoming leg v down from here nested correction a leg inside a leg I hate this wave so much $BTC #TrumpTariffsOnEurope
was expecting 91- 92,6k by today. But market is very very very slow. Like its running out of fuel. Lack of participant. Traumatized by the deep correction bahahah Market has no mercy in deleting traders. every emotional respond which followed by cut loses, panic selling etc is a fuel for the manipulator's account. Thats what they wanted. Your capital is your weapon. Once it gone, good luck. #FOMCWatch $BTC
Don't you think its weird , the movement from 80,600 UpTo 97,9k? my analysis which normally accurate gets messed up by this terminal wave. Remember when i was predicting 88k and it didnt happen? now ITS happen but what is that 97,9k move? if you call it wave IV from correction, its been 2 months. And it was clearly an upward impulse, right? it also has its own i-v wave. Clearly an upward impulse yet this deep retracement over 61.8% doesnt feel right, so where are we now? Is this wave B that top out at 97.9k? So what is this? Mind blogging move. Let's take a break from trading and just watch this market for a while maybe we will get an answer. $BTC
Just injected some liquid aka fresh money to buy the cheap $ZK at @0.028-0.029 so i can average down my buy price earlier @0.03480 Ahhh Cant believe my mind..unbelievably deep retracement / correction . Wild market bro!!!!!! Crazy ride. #FOMCWatch $BTC
Price now 87.900 why is it so extreme? where are we actually? wait.. is it even still valid as a retracement ? This is the first time i Saw such a deep retracement like this.
Oh so damn long time.. a week of correction . should have done from here. What else do you want, btc? 50% fib already? Legs has been complete. Your legs is too long already....... Now its time , Let's go??! Go get yo ass to that impulsive wave again. Don't say you are going for 89600, let's just go up from here dude #BTC100kNext? $BTC
Had a meeting with my investors yesterday. We talked about the chances of an altseason, the bear market, and risk management—looking at Binance data since 2017. Honestly, I don’t know exactly when the next altseason will come—it’s a complex market. But I’ve experienced it twice before, so all we can do now is stay prepared and hope for the best. $BTC #BTC100kNext?