CryptoQuant Quicktake

Derivatives markets have started regaining some positivity this July.
We can see this in Binance’s funding rates, which represent the largest futures trading volumes.
In this chart, the technical indicator has been transformed into a dynamic monthly aggregation designed to extract market sentiment rather than to build trading strategies, as it is typically used.
It’s a tool that can prove far more effective than the well known Fear and Greed Index, which during bear markets stays stuck in fear or extreme fear for the entire period.
Between March and late May, Bitcoin went through a strong period of pessimism, as the correction on Bitcoin had exceeded 50%. This buildup of short positions, mechanically pushing funding rates down until they turned negative, notably fueled BTC’s technical rebound, which reached $82 000 during the month of May.
This consensus of negativity alone is not what drives every reversal, as we can see on this chart. A contradiction needs to form first, with funding rates turning positive again before that happens.
This type of setup has occurred a few times over recent years. For example in September 2024, when BTC went from $54 000 to $106 000, or in December 2022, when BTC was trading around $16 000.
This setup is playing out again today, suggesting that negativity recently reached its peak, potentially leaving room for a bullish rebuild in the months ahead.
Written by Darkfost

Recent on-chain data suggests a loose correlation between shifts in Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR) and localized price bounces, though predicting the exact magnitude of these recoveries is still difficult. Following the two major spikes seen around April 5 and June 21, the metric has recently printed another distinct peak. Since long-term holders are generally the most conviction-driven cohort, these surges above the baseline indicate that seasoned participants may be using temporary price relief to take profits and secure liquidity. While hardly a definitive forecasting tool on its own, watching this distribution behavior provides helpful context on how market liquidity shifts during rebounds.
Written by nino

Open interest — the total number of outstanding derivative contracts — is heavily concentrated. In crypto, the top 3 venues (Binance, Bybit, Gate) hold ~63% and the top 5 ~81% of the ~$65B total; Binance alone commands 35%
Binance holds the largest share of capital in both categories, with $22.86B in crypto (35%) and $720M in TradFi (~35%) — more than double its nearest competitor in each.
Aggregate crypto OI has moderated, down ~20% from its ~$80B peaks (Sep 2025 / early 2026) to ~$65B, even as capital rotated into newer segments like TradFi perps, which roughly doubled over the same period.
TradFi perps are the standout growth story. A newly launched 24/7 product for metals, oil and equities roughly doubled to >$2B since late May, positioning crypto exchanges to compete directly with traditional trading venues.
The platforms with proven infrastructure and liquidity are extending their lead into TradFi — Binance, Bybit and Gate top both rankings — so TradFi is, for now, reinforcing rather than reshuffling the existing capital hierarchy of crypto venues, even as it remains just ~3% the size of the crypto-perp market.
Written by CQ Research

Bitcoin derivatives on Binance ended July with leverage still elevated despite a sharp late-month liquidation of long positions. Open interest rose from roughly $7.1 billion in late June to $7.78 billion, an increase of about 9%, while Bitcoin advanced from below $60,000 to around $63,400.
Funding remained positive throughout the period, showing that perpetual-futures traders consistently paid to maintain long exposure. The rate approached 0.01% during the strongest early-July positioning but fell to about 0.0011% by 28 July. This compression matters: directional leverage remains in the system, yet the cost of holding longs has moved close to neutral, reducing evidence of an aggressively crowded bullish trade.
Liquidations reveal where the immediate stress emerged. Binance recorded approximately $40 million in long liquidations near the end of the window as Bitcoin retreated from above $65,000. Short liquidations were negligible on the latest observation after several larger squeezes earlier in July. The move cleared vulnerable longs but did not materially reduce aggregate open interest, suggesting that traders rebuilt or retained exposure rather than fully de-risking.
The stronger dollar and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s 28–29 July meeting provide a restrictive backdrop for leveraged risk, although they do not explain the exchange data by themselves.
A renewed rise in funding toward 0.01% while open interest remains above $7.7 billion would signal crowding and increase the risk of another downside cascade. A price recovery accompanied by falling open interest would provide a healthier reset.
Written by Novaque Research

Bitcoin’s Binance balance ended the month near 650,800 BTC, roughly 2,000 BTC below late June, despite climbing above 660,000 BTC in mid-July. The modest net decline reduced immediately available exchange supply, but the underlying flow mix does not support an unqualified accumulation call.
Daily inflows and outflows remained two-sided, with several large bursts on both legs. The clearest late-month divergence appeared in transaction size: mean inflow recovered to about 46 BTC while mean outflow fell to roughly 7 BTC. This suggests fewer, larger deposits were entering Binance even as the exchange’s whale ratio retreated to 0.40 from readings above 0.50. Large deposits therefore mattered, but the top ten inflows did not dominate total deposits to the same extent as they did during earlier monthly spikes.
Bitcoin still rose from around $59,500 to $63,400 over the window, although it pulled back from a peak above $66,000. That resilience coincided with renewed US spot-ETF demand, while the stronger dollar and uncertainty before the Federal Reserve’s 28–29 July meeting restrained risk appetite. Neither backdrop proves the cause of Binance flows.
Written by Novaque Research

Bitcoin volume readings this July confirm a trend that’s settling in for the long haul, market interest in the asset shows no sign of real improvement.
BTC spot volumes have dropped by more than 75% on major exchanges compared to late 2024. Binance alone recorded over $35B in July, a figure that remains far below the $246B seen in November 2024.
This isn’t isolated to one platform, it’s a global pattern.
Over the same period, spot volumes collapsed by 85% on Bybit, 61% on Coinbase, and 67% on OKX.
You’d have to go back to 2023, in the late stages of the bear market, to find volume levels this low.
Several macro factors explain this lack of appetite for risk assets.
• The intensifying conflict between the US and Iran has weighed on risk sentiment. Inflation continues to fuel concerns about rates staying elevated, an environment that’s far from favorable for speculative assets.
• At the same time, equity markets kept absorbing most of the available liquidity, driven by exceptional tech sector performance, though that narrative started coming under question this July.
Against this backdrop, a return of Bitcoin to a bullish trend seems conditional on a shift in the macro regime, and above all a return of demand, the only real driver capable of pushing volumes back up.
Written by Darkfost

Stock trading volume data on the Gate platform indicates a significant surge over the past few days, with total weekly stock trading volume reaching approximately $1.64 billion, a record high. This increase reflects a clear acceleration in stock trading activity, with US, Korean, and Hong Kong stocks all contributing to the overall volume
US stocks led the activity, with trading volume of approximately $969 million, representing about 59.11% of total weekly trading volume. This highlights the clear dominance of US stocks, making them the primary driver behind the recent record levels.
In contrast, Korean stocks recorded trading volume of approximately $655 million, representing about 39.94% of the total. This reflects their continued strong presence in Gate's stock trading activity, despite the US market taking the lead.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong stocks recorded trading volume of approximately $15.5 million, representing about 0.95% of the total. Although their share remains limited compared with US and Korean stocks, trading activity in this third market reflects the diversification of trading across the different regions covered by the index.
the sharp increase in stock trading volume on the Gate platform reflects growing trader activity and stronger market participation. Reaching a record weekly volume of approximately $1.64 billion suggests increased interest in stock trading on the platform, particularly in US and Korean stocks. If this momentum continues, it could indicate a broader and more sustained expansion in stock trading activity on Gate.
Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin: Quiet Accumulation Beneath the Correction.
Bitcoin trades near $63,700, about 49% below the October 2025 peak of $126,200. Price looks weak — but exchange flows tell a different story.Reserves Keep FallingExchange reserves have dropped from 2,783,000 BTC to 2,705,000 BTC over six months (-78,000 BTC) and now sit near cycle lows. In a typical capitulation, coins flood into exchanges to be sold. Instead, the dominant behavior throughout this correction has been withdrawal into self-custody — a sign of long-term holding intent, not distribution.TakeawayShrinking exchange supply against falling price is a classic accumulation-phase structure: sell-side liquidity is thinning, making price more responsive once demand returns. Watch the netflow 7D MA — a sustained flip into positive territory would be the first warning of renewed distribution and could open a retest of $58K. Until then, the supply side favors patient accumulation.
Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

Bitcoin price data over the past few hours indicates a significant increase in volatility, with the 24-hour Z-Score reaching -3.51 as the price traded near $63,700. This reading represents a sharp negative deviation from the average of recent price changes, suggesting that the latest decline was exceptional compared with the price's typical behavior during the period under review This means that Bitcoin's recent decline was significantly stronger than its typical price movements
The data shows that the 24-hour price change was approximately -1.29%, while the Z-Score fell below -3, a relatively rare statistical level indicating that the price movement deviated significantly from typical fluctuations. In the preceding days, the indicator had mostly hovered near zero, with temporary upward and downward spikes, before recording this latest sharp decline.
However, the Z-Score reaching such an extreme negative level does not necessarily mean that the downward trend will continue. It could also indicate a statistically extreme move that may be followed by stabilization or a rebound toward the average. Therefore, monitoring whether the Z-Score returns toward zero will be important in assessing whether selling pressure has begun to subside. Meanwhile, continued extreme negative readings could indicate that volatility remains elevated and downward pressure persists.
Written by Arab Chain

Binance BTC Netflow Hits -$333M, Second-Largest July Outflow Ahead of Fed Decision Despite Exchange Shutdown Wave
BTC recorded another sizable negative netflow on Binance on July 27, with approximately $333 million more BTC leaving the exchange.
The move represents the second-largest negative Binance BTC netflow by value this month, behind the July 20 reading that exceeded -$570M.
Two major negative readings within roughly one week suggest the latest move is not an isolated spike in exchange flows.
The timing is particularly notable. The $333M net outflow emerged immediately ahead of the Federal Reserve's July 28–29 FOMC meeting, with the policy decision scheduled for July 29. This places the shift in Bitcoin exchange flows directly ahead of a major macroeconomic event capable of influencing liquidity expectations and risk-asset positioning.
Exchange closures create an unusual contrast
The negative Binance flow also comes during an unusual wave of exchange wind-down announcements.
BitMart announced an orderly shutdown on July 26, gradually suspending new registrations, cryptocurrency and fiat deposits, and new trading orders.
BitMEX announced on July 23 that it will close its exchange on September 23, while immediately stopping new account registrations.
Earlier in the month, EXMO.com began its own wind-down, halting new registrations and deposits.
That backdrop creates an interesting contrast in the flow data. A broad migration of BTC from closing platforms toward Binance could have generated additional positive exchange inflows. Instead, Binance recorded a strongly negative $333M BTC netflow on July 27.
In other words, the data currently show no visible flight-to-Binance effect in BTC flows following the recent exchange closure announcements.
This does not establish where assets from those platforms ultimately moved—they could be transferred to private wallets or other exchanges—but it makes the Binance reading particularly notable.
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin’s recent recovery toward the mid-$65,000 range continues to lack confirmation from spot demand.
CryptoQuant data shows the 30-day cumulative growth in spot demand remaining deeply negative, contracting by roughly 200,000 BTC per month. In contrast, perpetual futures demand has turned net positive in July, adding approximately 30,000–50,000 BTC on a 30-day basis. This is still about five times smaller than the April expansion that previously supported a stronger rally.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit has rebounded to around 57.5% (from the June low near 46%), yet long-term holder SOPR remains subdued. Whales (1,000–10,000 BTC addresses) have accumulated roughly 66,700 BTC over the past 60 days, while mid-sized wallets have distributed.
The divergence points to a market still reliant on leveraged positioning rather than genuine spot accumulation. Until spot demand turns sustainably positive, the current range is more likely to persist than break higher with conviction.
https://cryptoquant.com/community/dashboard/6a588bdb3eb04801bdf186b3?e=6a588bdb7a878621f5277b7b
Written by theophiluspep

Something unusual happened over the past two weeks: both longs and shorts got punished, yet XRP barely moved. Price closed July 26 at $1.112, essentially unchanged from $1.111 two weeks earlier, while liquidations kept firing in both directions.
Look at the whipsaw. On July 21, price tapped $1.143 and shorts got crushed for $2.35M. Just three days later on July 24, longs paid the price — $1.89M liquidated as XRP slipped back to $1.091. This is a market repeatedly trapping traders who commit to a direction, then snapping back to the middle. Over the full window, long liquidations ($647K avg, up 19% vs quarter) and short liquidations ($518K avg, up 141% vs quarter) are both elevated relative to longer baselines.
The compression is the key detail. Realized volatility is collapsing: price has coiled into a roughly $1.09–$1.14 band while Open Interest holds firm near $420M and leverage sits at 0.164. Energy is building in positioning even as price refuses to break. Funding stays near zero (0.001), showing neither side has decisive control.
Underneath, the tape is thin. Binance spot flows remain depressed — inflows and outflows both down ~98% versus monthly baselines — and deposit addresses have fallen over 96%. When liquidity is this scarce, small position clusters can trigger the sharp two-sided flushes we’re seeing.
This isn’t a directional signal. It’s a description of stored energy. Symmetric liquidations inside a tightening range, on thin volume, have historically preceded expansion moves — though the coil itself gives no hint of which way it resolves. Worth watching whether one side’s liquidations start dominating, or whether returning spot flow finally breaks the standoff.
Written by CryptoOnchain

The crypto industry witnessed two significant developments in July 2026. BitMEX announced its closure on July 23, followed by BitMart just three days later. Unlike the collapse of FTX in 2022, both exchanges are conducting orderly wind-downs with sufficient withdrawal periods, indicating planned business exits rather than sudden insolvencies.
Although their reasons differ, the message is the same: competition among centralized exchanges has intensified. As institutional investors, Bitcoin ETFs, and regulatory requirements reshape the market, users increasingly favor exchanges with deep liquidity, strong compliance, and trusted brands.
This trend is reflected in CryptoQuant's Binance Dominance Index, which combines exchange reserves, spot trading volume, mining activity, and whale participation. The index suggests that market liquidity and investor activity are becoming increasingly concentrated on Binance.
However, concentration also raises an important question: who should ultimately control digital assets?
Even the largest exchanges continue to rely on custodial models, where users entrust assets to a third party. History has shown through cases such as Mt. Gox and FTX that exchanges are not permanent.
For active trading, centralized exchanges remain essential. But for long-term holdings, self-custody allows investors to control their own private keys and reduce counterparty risk.
At XWIN, we believe the closures of BitMEX and BitMart symbolize more than exchange consolidation—they remind investors that as the industry matures, protecting assets through responsible custody becomes just as important as choosing where to trade.
Written by XWIN Japan

The Binance Reserve Realized Price is once again proving to be an important level for Bitcoin.
In 2022, after Bitcoin lost this level, it later acted as resistance, showing that the market had weakened relative to the average cost basis of Binance’s BTC reserves.
In 2026, the behavior looks different. So far, Bitcoin has managed to hold this level twice, suggesting that the Binance Reserve Realized Price has been acting as support instead of resistance.
This is an important shift. When a realized price level holds as support, it usually signals that the market is still strong enough to defend the average acquisition level of a major exchange reserve.
At the moment, this level is near $61K. If Bitcoin loses this support, it would be a more bearish signal, as it would indicate that price is weakening relative to the entire current Binance reserve base.
In other words, staying above the Binance Reserve Realized Price helps preserve a stronger market structure, while losing it could open the door to deeper downside pressure.
Written by joaowedson

• Jul 26, 2026:
STH: $68K.
BTC: $65K.
LTH: $49K.
• Indicator: By AxelAdlerJr.
Written by Facundo Fama

• Jul 26, 2026:
STH: $68K.
BTC: $65K.
LTH: $49K.
Written by Facundo Fama

Despite the BitMEX and BitMart bankruptcies reported last week, investors did not exit the crypto market. Instead, they moved their assets to more trusted centralized exchanges, primarily Binance and OKX.
This shows that, contrary to fears of a market-wide liquidity crisis, investors are simply distancing themselves from exchanges they perceive as risky. In previous crises, similar events triggered massive capital outflows. Today, however, investors are choosing to keep their funds in the market and transfer them to stronger exchanges—even as major geopolitical tensions and ongoing wars continue to create uncertainty across global financial markets.
In short, recent developments indicate that capital is not leaving the crypto ecosystem. Rather, the existing liquidity is becoming increasingly concentrated on larger and more trusted centralized exchanges.
The key takeaway is that the crypto market appears to be supported by a growing base of long-term investors. Instead of reacting with panic, these participants continue to hold their capital within the ecosystem, demonstrating confidence in the industry's long-term future even during periods of heightened uncertainty.
Written by theKriptolik

The funding rate data for XRP contracts on Binance indicates a return of positive momentum in the perpetual contracts market following the volatility seen in the second half of July. The funding rate reached approximately 0.00138, while the 30-day Z-Score registered 0.21, reflecting a slight move in the funding rate above its recent average.
Prior to the current reading, the funding rate experienced a sharp decline into negative territory, suggesting a temporary shift in traders' positioning toward short positions. However, its return to 0.00138, coupled with the Z-Score rising back above zero, indicates that long positions are regaining some momentum following the recent downward trend.
Nevertheless, the current Z-Score reading of 0.21 remains close to the neutral level and does not indicate overextension or excessive speculation in long positions. This suggests that the derivatives market is currently tilted slightly in favor of buyers, without showing signs of extreme positioning.
Overall, the data indicates an improvement in sentiment among XRP traders on Binance. A continued rise in the funding rate and Z-Score could signal an expansion in buying momentum, while a return to negative readings could indicate renewed pressure from short positions.
Written by Arab Chain

BTC flows into Binance are showing a notable divergence between retail and whale activity ahead of one of this week's most important macroeconomic events.
Binance Whale to Exchange Flow data shows that the 30-d sum of whale inflows fell to $3.9 billion on July 27, down from a recent high of roughly $7 billion on June 12.
That represents a decline of about 44.3%.
Retail inflows have proved considerably more resilient. The 30-d sum currently stands near $7.8 billion, compared with approximately $10 billion on June 5, a decline of only 22%.
This leaves retail inflows at roughly twice the level of whale inflows, with a gap of $3.9 billion.
The divergence suggests that the composition of BTC transfers into Binance has shifted: retail participants are currently significantly more active than whales in sending BTC to the exchange.
However, exchange inflows should not automatically be interpreted as selling, as the metric tracks transfers to the platform rather than the subsequent use of those assets.
Fed Decision Adds a Major Macro Catalyst
The shift comes immediately ahead of the Federal Reserve's July 28–29 FOMC meeting, with the interest-rate decision scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET on July 29, followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Fed funds futures currently imply roughly a 36% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike, leaving an unchanged 3.50%–3.75% target range as the more likely scenario.
Rate-hike expectations have risen sharply as energy-driven inflation risks returned to focus.
For BTC, an unexpected hike could increase short-term volatility by supporting Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar while tightening financial conditions for risk assets. Conversely, a hold accompanied by less-hawkish guidance could ease some of that macro pressure.
With retail inflows now running at 2x whale inflows, Wednesday's Fed decision could provide an important test of whether the current divergence between the two BTC cohorts persists or begins to converge.
Written by Amr Taha

🚨 Wednesday, 9:00 PM: Fed interest rate decision 🎙️ 9:30 PM: Press conference with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
🚨 Thursday, 3:30 PM: June PCE inflation data 🇺🇸 The advance estimate for second-quarter U.S. GDP will be released at the same time.
Right after the Fed’s interest rate decision, we’ll get the PCE inflation data—one of the key inflation indicators closely watched by the Fed.
We’re heading into a critical 48-hour period that could bring increased volatility across Bitcoin, gold, the U.S. dollar, and equity markets.
This week, managing risk matters more than predicting direction.
Which event do you think will have the bigger impact on markets: the Fed decision or the PCE data?
#Fed #FOMC #PCE #Bitcoin #Gold #USD #Stocks
Written by İbrahim COŞAR