CryptoQuant Quicktake

USDT activity accelerated sharply on August 10, with $1 billion minted on the Tron network, while $1.75 billion USDT was burned on Ethereum, marking a notable reshuffling of stablecoin liquidity across the two networks.
The Tron mint was the first $1 billion issuance since July 9.
At the same time, Binance recorded approximately $897 million in positive USDT netflow through the Tron network, equivalent to nearly 90% of the size of the latest mint.
This comparison does not necessarily mean the newly minted tokens were transferred directly to Binance, but it highlights the scale of exchange-side liquidity movement occurring alongside the issuance.
The latest Binance inflow was also significantly larger than during the previous Tron mint event.
On July 9, Binance recorded roughly $590 million in positive USDT netflow, meaning the August 10 reading was about $307 million, or 52%, higher.
Meanwhile, Ethereum recorded a $1.75 billion USDT burn, the first major burn since approximately $5 billion was burned on July 7.
Taken together, the simultaneous Tron mint, Ethereum burn, and elevated Binance inflow point to a substantial shift in the distribution and availability of USDT liquidity across networks and trading venues.
For traders, the key signal is not simply the mint itself, but the combination of stablecoin issuance, network-level supply adjustments, and unusually large exchange inflows occurring at the same time.
Written by Amr Taha

[A Sideways Summer]
Bitcoin has spent much of the summer grinding sideways, with price action lacking clear direction as traders wait for stronger catalysts. Liquidity has been uneven, retail interest muted at times, and the market has largely consolidated rather than trending significantly in either direction.
Amid the current status quo, CryptoQuant’s on-chain metrics often become more revealing than short-term price charts, because they can highlight shifts in the behavior of larger market participants.
[Binance EWR Hits a 5-Month High]
One of the relevant on-chain metrics is Binance's Exchange Whale Ratio (EWR) that recently hit 0.71, representing the highest value since March 7th. At the same time, Binance's current EWR sits at a 5-month peak.
CryptoQuant's Exchange Whale Ratio metric tracks the share of total Bitcoin inflows to an exchange. It’s calculated as the sum of the top ten inflows divided by total inflows.
An increasing EWR means large holders, or whales, are driving more of the activity onto Binance. This can signal potential selling pressure, since whales often deposit to trade or sell, though inflows alone don’t confirm actual sales.
When whales dominate inflows, it often means bigger players are repositioning, indicating elevated volatility.
[Volatility Ahead]
Looking forward, the combination of a multi-month high in Binance’s Exchange Whale Ratio and the broader sideways backdrop points toward a higher probability of sharper price movements in the near term.
Whether those moves resolve higher or lower will depend on how the deposited coins are ultimately used, on broader macroeconomic signals, and on the reaction of leveraged positions across the derivatives market. For now, the on-chain data simply flags that the quiet summer period may not remain quiet for much longer.
Written by oinonen_t

Bitcoin reserves across major exchanges are showing increasingly divergent trends just one day before the release of the U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI), adding a key macro catalyst to an already notable shift in exchange balances.
According to data, Binance’s Bitcoin reserve reached approximately 666,000 BTC on August 11, its highest reading since June 3, when reserves stood near 659,000 BTC.
This represents an increase of roughly 7,000 BTC, or 1.1%, from that early-June level.
Kraken has recorded an even larger relative increase. Its Bitcoin reserve climbed to around 151,000 BTC, compared with approximately 142,000 BTC on June 5—an increase of about 9,000 BTC, or more than 6%.
The trend is not uniform across exchanges.
Bitfinex remains broadly stable near 421,400 BTC, around the same level observed since late June, while
OKX has declined slightly to roughly 103,000 BTC from 105,000 BTC on June 5.
The contrast suggests that Bitcoin balances are evolving differently across major trading venues rather than moving in one synchronized direction.
The timing is particularly notable because the U.S. CPI report for July is scheduled for August 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
With Binance reaching a more than two-month reserve high and Kraken posting the strongest percentage increase among the exchanges compared, exchange-reserve divergence has become an important metric to watch around the CPI release.
However, reserve data alone does not establish whether the underlying coins are intended for trading, custody, internal transfers, or other activity, making the divergence itself more significant than any single directional interpretation.
Written by Amr Taha

Stablecoin liquidity continues to tighten, with the scale of the recent contraction reaching historically extreme levels.
CryptoQuant data shows that USDT’s market capitalization has declined by roughly $4 billion over the past 60 days, bringing it to around $183 billion, its lowest level since October 2025. The 30-day simple moving average of the 60-day change recently stood near –$4.88 billion. In the most recent 11-day window alone, nearly $870 million of USDT supply disappeared.
The broader stablecoin market has also contracted by approximately $10 billion over a similar period.
Historically, CryptoQuant data suggests that the steepest phases of USDT supply contraction have tended to occur closer to the exhaustion of selling pressure rather than at the beginning of a new, intensified distribution phase.
However, this does not necessarily mean that a market bottom is in or that fresh demand has already returned.
Instead, it highlights that one of the crypto market’s primary sources of deployable liquidity has been shrinking aggressively. A declining stablecoin supply reduces the amount of capital available to enter risk assets, limiting the fuel needed for sustained rebounds. This helps explain why recent upside moves have struggled to gain traction.
At the same time, the historical relationship between extreme USDT contractions and market cycles suggests that the heaviest phase of capital exiting the ecosystem may be closer to completion than to acceleration.
The key variable to watch next is whether new stablecoin inflows and spot demand begin to reappear once the current liquidity drain stabilizes.
For now, the data points to a market still operating in a low-liquidity environment, with sell-side pressure potentially approaching a late-stage phase. Confirmation would come from stabilization in stablecoin supply, followed by renewed liquidity inflows and stronger spot demand.
Written by theophiluspep

Data shows that Binance's Bitcoin reserves have surged to approximately 667,500 BTC, their highest level since February. This is a noteworthy development given the market's continued sensitivity to supply movements on centralized exchanges.
This increase follows a period of significant fluctuations in Binance's reserves, which have begun to recover in recent months. The data indicates that reserves have risen from around 616,000 BTC in April to more than 667,500 BTC currently, reflecting a larger amount of Bitcoin held on the platform. This increase coincides with Bitcoin trading near $64,000.
A rise in Bitcoin reserves on centralized exchanges is generally interpreted as an increase in the supply available for trading, potentially leading to selling pressure if holders decide to move their holdings into the market. However, a higher reserve level alone does not necessarily indicate widespread selling. These movements could instead be linked to liquidity redistribution or changes in custody and trading practices.
Notably, Binance's reserves reaching their highest level since February represents a significant shift compared with periods of lower Bitcoin supply on the platform. This signal becomes more significant if reserves continue to rise while the price weakens or exchange deposit inflows increase.
Written by Arab Chain

$BTC Early Bull signal has appeared once again.
In general, following the first early bull signal, a further decline occurred. The second early bull signal indicated a bottom.
Currently, a second early bull signal has appeared. This signifies another bottom signal.
The second early bull signal was the phase where a bottom was forming and an uptrend began.
It is highly likely that Bitcoin is currently forming a bottom.
Furthermore, during the last rally, there was no overheated bull phase, and the extreme bear phase during the decline was very short.
All of these were preparation for the rally that is about to begin.
Written by CW8900

Binance XRP CVD Confirmation Score data shows that the XRP CVD value is approximately -4.15 million, coinciding with XRP trading near $1.03. Conversely, the 30-day CVD correlation coefficient is 0.84, a high reading indicating a relatively strong correlation between buy and sell flows and XRP's recent price movement.
This data reveals a significant paradox in the current market situation: despite the strong correlation between CVD and price, the CVD value remains in negative territory. This suggests that cumulative market flows are skewed towards selling, indicating that buyer activity has not yet been sufficient to shift the balance of flows into positive territory.
This signal becomes even more significant when considering the price trajectory. The chart shows that XRP has declined from levels exceeding $1.40 in the previous period to around $1.03 currently. This decline coincides with the CVD continuing to move within a negative and volatile range, reflecting ongoing selling pressure in the market.
However, the high correlation of 0.84 means that CVD movements are becoming more important in interpreting short-term price action. If the CVD starts to rise from its negative levels in conjunction with improving prices, this could provide stronger confirmation of a return of genuine demand. Conversely, if the CVD continues in negative territory with weak prices, it may reflect continued seller dominance.
Written by Arab Chain

XRP derivatives positioning has shifted sharply since the start of August, with leverage rebuilding even as both perpetual and spot order flow moved deeper into seller-dominated territory.
Binance’s 7-day Open Interest change rose from roughly -13% on August 1 to +7.4% on August 11, representing a swing of more than 20 percentage points.
Over the same period, Binance Perpetual CVD declined from approximately -$251 million to -$349.5 million, a deterioration of nearly $100 million.
Selling pressure was also visible beyond derivatives.
All-CEX Estimated Spot CVD fell from around +$193 million to -$34.3 million, marking a net deterioration of roughly $227 million since the beginning of August.
The combination is notable: leverage is expanding while aggressive selling remains dominant across both derivatives and spot markets. This suggests XRP is entering a major U.S. macro-data window with increasingly defensive positioning and a larger concentration of leveraged exposure.
With CPI and PPI releases approaching, this structure could make XRP particularly sensitive to any shift in market expectations.
Written by Amr Taha

XRP closed at 1.039 on August 8, testing the lower bound of its six-month range. Price action appears heavy, drifting from the 1.08 band toward 1.02–1.03 over the past week. However, the key signal lies in the divergence between centralized exchange behavior and native network activity.
On-chain participation has surged structurally. Total transaction count exceeded 2.8 million on August 5—a 86% week-over-week increase and more than 81% above the 30-day baseline. This wasn’t isolated; daily transactions remained between 1.3M and 2.8M over the past week, pushing the 7-day average well above its 6-month mean of 1.83M. Active accounts also rose over 5% on a 30-day basis, reinforcing strong network utilization despite weak price action.
Crucially, this on-chain awakening is disconnected from centralized exchange flow. Binance deposit addresses plunged roughly 96% against monthly and quarterly baselines, while inflows and outflows collapsed by 79% and 85% respectively versus their 90-day averages. The network is highly active, yet coins are not moving to exchanges to be sold.
The derivatives market mirrors this exhaustion. Open Interest slipped from ~403M on July 28 to 391M on August 8, near its 6-month lows. Leverage sits at 0.150 versus a 0.190 high. A notable 3.4M long liquidation event occurred on August 7 as price dipped to 1.02, while funding rates normalized to positive territory (+0.008) the next day, suggesting weak hands were flushed without triggering panic shorting.
Taken together, XRP shows a classic bottom-building signature: price is testing deep support, speculative leverage is largely washed out, exchange selling pressure has evaporated, and organic on-chain utility is expanding. When network usage diverges this sharply from exchange dormancy at range lows, it can establish a foundation for localized accumulation rather than further capitulation.
Written by CryptoOnchain

Following days of overwhelming euphoria, the cryptocurrency market has entered a period of profound quiet. Bitcoin, which shattered records during its peak, has anchored itself around the $60,000 level under the weight of the bear market. However, the most striking element of the current landscape is not the price itself, but the drying liquidity in the market’s core lifeline: trading volume.
During the market’s peak greed in July 2025, gargantuan trading volumes were recorded. Binance alone generated a staggering $2.55 trillion in volume, while its closest competitor, OKX, joined the frenzy with $1.055 trillion. Fast forward to July 2026, with the cold reality of the bear market setting in, and the picture has changed completely:
* Binance: $2.55T → $1.40T (Approx. 45% drop)
* Nearest Competitor (OKX): $1.055T → $447B (Approx. 57% drop)
This broader market volume drop of over 50% clearly illustrates the psychological shift between bull and bear cycles. While everyone participates during a bull run, investors tend to close their positions and step to the sidelines in a bear market.
Why Is Low Volume Dangerous?
Low-volume markets typically drift sideways in a tedious range, but this calmness can be deceiving. When order book depth shrinks, the market loses stability, entering an indecisive phase where even modest capital flows can trigger sharp price swings.
In short, Bitcoin is trapped in a tight range while liquidity dries up. Historically, this type of deep illiquidity during consolidation periods has served as the quiet setup for massive breakouts and radical directional shifts.
Written by BorisD

ETH’s Binance NUPL Is Back in a Historical Bottoming Zone:
Ethereum’s exchange-level NUPL on Binance has returned to a region that has historically appeared near important price floors.
Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, measures the balance between unrealized profits and losses embedded in a given supply cohort. When the metric is positive, the tracked ETH supply is holding an aggregate unrealized profit. When it turns negative, that supply is underwater relative to its estimated cost basis.
In this case, the calculation is restricted to ETH held on Binance. This distinction matters because it does not describe the entire Ethereum holder base, but a portion of supply located on the market’s largest centralized exchange and therefore potentially more available for trading.
A reading near −0.35 indicates considerable financial stress. In simplified terms, the tracked supply is carrying net unrealized losses equivalent to approximately 35% of its current market value.
Historically, this levels coincided with the lows of late 2019 and March 2020, both 2022 bottoming phases, the 2025 correction and the latest drawdown. Different catalysts produced the same underlying condition: losses had become severe enough to suggest that selling pressure was already mature.
What is this revealing beneath price?
As weaker holders capitulate, the remaining supply becomes less willing to sell at depressed valuations. Once the most loss-sensitive sellers have exited, further downside may generate less marginal supply, allowing modest demand to stabilize price.
However, previous cycles show that the first breach can precede a retest or a final lower low. A recovery above the threshold while ETH holds its recent low would strengthen the signal. Further NUPL deterioration alongside new price lows would indicate that capitulation remains incomplete.
Written by MorenoDV_

Bitcoin inflows from mid-size investors to Binance have fallen sharply, with the 7-day average declining to 2,734 BTC on August 10 — the lowest level since April 10, when the metric was near 2,000 BTC.
The move is notable because mid-size investors remain the largest component of Binance’s current Bitcoin inflow structure, making changes in this cohort particularly relevant when assessing shifts in exchange-side supply.
The latest decline also reverses much of the increase seen through late July and early August.
After mid-size inflows briefly accelerated, the 7-day average has moved steadily lower, returning to levels not observed for roughly four months.
What makes the divergence more interesting is Bitcoin’s price. BTC remains near $65,000 while mid-size inflows have dropped to a multi-month low, indicating that substantially less Bitcoin from this investor group is currently being transferred to Binance compared with recent weeks.
Lower exchange inflows do not by themselves confirm accumulation or predict future price direction.
However, the shift suggests reduced transfer activity toward Binance among mid-size holders, making this cohort an important one to monitor if the current trend persists.
Written by Amr Taha

CryptoQuant’s latest cohort data shows a clear divergence in Bitcoin holder behaviour.
On a 60 day rolling basis, addresses holding more than 10,000 BTC recorded net accumulation of 46,420 BTC as of August 9. That is the highest reading since March 15 and nearly double the previous mid March peak of 23,238 BTC.
At the same time, smaller wallets holding 0.1 to 1 BTC distributed roughly 9,700 BTC over the same period.
This is a notable shift in positioning. The largest holders are increasing their exposure while smaller holders are reducing theirs.
Historically, accumulation of this magnitude by large holders has helped absorb selling pressure and tighten available supply.
With key U.S. inflation data, including CPI and PPI, due this week, the timing is particularly interesting.
The largest hands are adding to their positions heading into the event rather than reducing exposure.
Written by theophiluspep

The number of Exchange Depositing Transactions on #Binance remains at relatively low levels, suggesting that $BTC deposit activity to the exchange is still subdued compared to previous periods.
Although the chart continues to show occasional short-term spikes, they have yet to develop into a sustained upward trend. This indicates that $BTC deposits to #Binance remain relatively stable rather than expanding significantly.
This indicator does not provide a bullish or bearish signal on its own, but it does suggest that the behavior of sending $BTC to the exchange has not changed meaningfully in recent months.
$BTC #Bitcoin #Binance
Written by Rei Researcher

Although LTH Supply Inflow has recorded several strong surges in recent months, the LTH Balance of $BTC is, in fact, still trending downward.
This suggests that the amount of $BTC aging into the Long-Term Holder cohort is still not enough to offset the coins leaving it, indicating that a portion of long-term investors continues to realize profits or distribute holdings into the market.
In other words, accumulation is still taking place, but it is not yet strong enough to reverse the decline in the total amount of BTC held by Long-Term Holders.
This will be an important metric to watch going forward, as a reversal in LTH Balance often carries more significance than short-term spikes in LTH Supply Inflow.
$BTC #Bitcoin #Onchain
Written by Rei Researcher

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has highlighted an unusual shift in CME Bitcoin futures: hedge funds have reportedly flipped net long.
Why does this matter?
Since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, hedge funds have frequently used the basis trade: buying spot BTC or ETFs while shorting CME futures to capture the premium between spot and futures prices.
For example, if BTC trades at $100,000 and futures at $101,000, a fund can buy spot and short futures. As the two prices converge, it captures the spread while limiting directional exposure.
This is why hedge funds can remain structurally short on CME without actually being bearish on Bitcoin.
But a move from net short to net long is different.
If funds are not merely closing basis-trade shorts but actively building long futures positions, capital may be shifting from “trading the spread” to “trading the upside.”
There is one caveat: the latest CFTC data still shows leveraged funds net short in standard CME Bitcoin futures, while Micro Bitcoin futures are net long. Different contract coverage or methodology may explain the discrepancy.
So this is not yet proof that Wall Street has turned fully bullish.
But the signal is worth watching.
The next confirmation would be a combination of shrinking CME shorts, spot ETF inflows, stronger spot demand, and healthy derivatives positioning.
The key question is no longer just who is buying Bitcoin.
It is why they are buying it.
Written by XWIN Japan

Binance data shows the BTC Scarcity Index plummeting to -3.18 its lowest level on record, coinciding with Bitcoin trading near $65,000. This reading reflects exceptionally low Bitcoin scarcity on Binance, indicating that the available supply on the platform is relatively high compared with historical levels.
This significantly negative reading is particularly noteworthy because it suggests that the amount of Bitcoin available for trading on Binance has become more abundant. This implies a larger supply that could enter the market if holders decide to sell their holdings. Therefore, the index remaining at such low levels could increase the likelihood of downward price pressure, especially if it coincides with increased selling activity or continued Bitcoin inflows to the platform.
However, an increase in supply on Binance does not automatically mean that all coins on the platform will be sold. Traders may hold their Bitcoin for trading purposes, hedging, or to capitalize on market movements. Therefore, the impact of increased supply largely depends on whether these coins ultimately translate into actual selling pressure.
The reading becomes even more significant if the Scarcity Index remains at historically low levels while Bitcoin reserves on Binance continue to rise. In this scenario, it could indicate a continued abundance of Bitcoin on the platform, making the market more vulnerable to selling pressure when negative catalysts emerge.
Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin is currently trading in an acute top formation phase. The risk of impending sell-offs is rising with the price, while sustainable bullish breakouts into a stable uptrend remain unlikely.
We must primarily assume an ongoing downtrend (“i”–“v”) within the bear market (see post from 07.29.). Although this downtrend appears close to ending, significant bearish potential remains.
The marked wave iv is developing the current bullish phase. Typical for wave iv: low momentum, complex patterns, time-extended moves, and weak indicators.
Wave iv targets the zone $62,541–$67,894 (already reached in the upper part) and the more precise zone $66,317–$68,965, where the final top should form.
With targets reached, the risk of continued sell-offs in wave v (red arrow) increases. A higher extension via “alt. iv” (dashed green arrow) remains possible.
Despite remaining upside, risk predominates. Lack of trend strength means upward moves can collapse anytime. Higher price highs are forming lower MACD highs → clear bearish divergence. RSI is entering overbought territory, and volume has been declining throughout the 6-week rally since 01.07., indicating weakening interest.
Next downside target: cyclical 61.8% Fibonacci at $51,336 (−21% from current levels). If alt. iv extends toward $70,000, downside potential rises to ~26%.
Given the elevated risk and weak data, larger buys should be held back for now. Stronger cyclical entries become attractive near $51,000.
Written by STASolutions

BTC formed a diamond bottom over roughly 40 days, from June to mid July. However, that pattern has already resolved, and its initial breakout was downward, the less common outcome for a diamond bottom.
The current setup is a separate falling wedge formed during the consolidation that followed.
Price has now broken above the wedge’s descending resistance, favoring further upside.
Extending the wedge’s converging trend lines suggests a potential decision window around August 17, with the $72K region representing a speculative upside target.
A rejection between $66.4K and $66.8K, followed by a series of higher lows, could begin forming an ascending triangle and create another opportunity for an upside breakout.
A move back inside the wedge would weaken the bullish setup, while a crack below wedge support would invalidate it and suggest that the market is forming a different structure.
For now, BTC remains cautiously bullish, with $72K as a possible scenario rather than a high confidence target.
Written by Andrew Kamsky

This bull market cycle has brought major shifts to the crypto ecosystem, most notably the arrival of traditional finance on-chain.
Today, you can find the main S&P 500 tickers listed on numerous exchanges.
Looking at equities, perpetuals trading volumes have been climbing month after month, especially in 2026. While BTC is down 26% for the year, the S&P 500 is following a completely different trajectory, up 13% over the same period.
Given this, some investors have chosen to increase their exposure to TradFi instead, and July saw substantial trading volumes flow through numerous exchanges.
Binance leads the way with nearly $490B in volume for that month alone wich represent an impressive figure.
Other exchanges like MEXC, Bitget, Gate, and Bybit also recorded sizable volumes, ranging from $72B down to $32B.
This development in the crypto ecosystem answers real investor demand, who can now diversify their exposure while staying within the same ecosystem.
Given the volumes involved, this dynamic is starting to reshape liquidity flows. Notably, stablecoin market cap hasn't dropped sharply the way it did in 2022, even as BTC has corrected by more than 52%. This suggests liquidity is largely staying within the ecosystem.
That said, it's becoming more diluted across all the investment options now available. Still, the fact that it remains present in the crypto market could pave the way for much more spontaneous and rapid liquidity movements, as investors look to chase the trend.
Written by Darkfost