By referring to whether the price of Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued, you can predict whether Bitcoin has reached its peak in this bull market.

In past bull markets, MVRV peaked at 4.83 and 3.97, and currently has only reached 2.78. It has still not entered the overvalued zone and further rises can be expected.

Bitcoin has experienced a sufficient sideways and adjustment period for more than two months after reaching the overheated section (yellow) in March 2024, so it is highly likely that a cool rise will occur as early as June.

Written by Crypto Dan

✒️STH-SOPR (Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio) indicates whether short-term holders (STH) are making a profit or a loss when they spend their BTC. By applying the Bollinger Bands indicator, one can capture atypical moments that deviate from the normal standard distribution. If the upper band (+2σ) is breached, it can be seen as market overheating, while breaching the lower band (-2σ) can indicate a market downturn. Subsequently, the indicator is expected to revert towards the center of the Bollinger Bands.

The results show that not only do cases exceeding ±2 standard deviations matter but also the slope of the 🟡median (the central value located within the Bollinger Bands) is significant.

When breaching +2 standard deviations: 📉 Possibility of a price drop 🟡 The reliability increases if the moving average (median) band is horizontal or sloping downwards

When breaching -2 standard deviations: 📈 Possibility of a price rise 🟡 The reliability increases if the moving average (median) band is horizontal or sloping upwards

Thus, combining auxiliary indicators with STH-SOPR can help identify short-term peaks and troughs. However, relying solely on this indicator for investment decisions should be avoided.

Written by Yonsei_dent

In recent days, the TON Blockchain has been experiencing a downward trend in the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) index. This indicator, which measures the time coins have remained inactive before being spent or moved, has prompted discussions about the significance behind this decline.

Essentially, when the indicator is high, it signals that old coins are being moved, and when it is low, it indicates that long-term holders are not moving their coins.

A decrease in Coin Days Destroyed can be interpreted in various ways depending on the context. In some cases, it may indicate greater stability in the network, with less activity in the movement of long-term coins. This could suggest increasing confidence among TON holders, who choose to hold onto their assets rather than frequently trading them.

On the other hand, a significant decrease in CDD may also raise red flags for some investors and market observers. It could suggest a decrease in economic activity on the network, with fewer transactions occurring and fewer coins being spent or moved. This could indicate a lack of interest or confidence in the network, potentially resulting in selling pressure or overall disinterest.

Furthermore, the decline in Coin Days Destroyed could have implications for the overall health of TON and its ability to attract and retain active users. If the downward trend persists or deepens, a more detailed examination of the reasons behind this reduction and possible measures that the TON team could take to stimulate greater activity on the network may be necessary.

Written by joaowedson

🚀 Check out this eye-opening chart 👀 revealing the surge in new #Ethereum accumulation addresses across two key ranges 🤯:

10 to 10K and 10K to 100K #ETH

Written by elcryptotavo

Profitability is a crucial aspect of market psychology, especially concerning influential participants like whales. Examining these players' profitability provides valuable insights into market sentiment and conditions. The provided chart illustrates the realized price metric for both new and old whale cohorts, reflecting the proportion of Bitcoin supply in profit.

As shown in the graph, the realized price of old whales has consistently acted as a significant support level for Bitcoin throughout the main market cycles. Conversely, the realized price of new whales has also emerged as a crucial support during the recent bullish trend towards the all-time high (ATH) of $74K.

Following a rejection from the $74K mark and during the subsequent consolidation correction phase, the realized price of new whales continued to support Bitcoin, contributing to a robust price surge. Consequently, the realized price of new whales has become a key reference point for Bitcoin in the short term, potentially bolstering the price and mitigating downward pressures.

Written by ShayanBTC

We are now seeing signs that not only long-term (7+ years) holders, but also medium-term (6months ~ 7 years) holders are accumulating rather than distributing.

Interestingly, this sign was also seen in '19.3Q, and at that time, the price moved sideways for more than half a year before a rally occurred at some point.

Of course, we can't sure the same pattern repeats again now just like that time. But it is clear is that we can expect another rally at some point in the near future when the portion of long-term investors increases.

Written by SignalQuant

Following last week's surprise approval of the #Ethereum 19B-4 (Spot ETF Review Request), the Grayscale Ethereum Trust premium spiked to -0.81% and has been trading close to 0% ever since.

This suggests that institutional investors in the US are already almost certain to approve an Ethereum spot ETF.

Furthermore, if the approval is fully finalized, US institutional investors will have the opportunity to earn a risk-free return on a premium that has fallen by up to -27% during this correction.

Written by MAC_D

In the Bitcoin market, large investors, known as whales, play a significant role in price movements. Let's examine how whale activities have changed over the last 144 hours and how these movements have affected the price of Bitcoin.

The graph shows the progression of Bitcoin prices and whale activity (Whale Ratio) over time. At the top, we see the price movements of Bitcoin, while the blue area at the bottom represents the intensity of whale transactions.

Whale activity indicates the engagement of large investors in the market. If the ratio is high, it means that whales are making significant transactions. Recently, the whale activity ratio has been on a continuous upward trend, indicating that large players are increasingly making more transactions.

The declines marked with red arrows on the graph coincide with periods when the whale activity ratio increases. This suggests that large players are selling, which drives the prices down. Recently, the whale activity ratio has been hovering at high levels. This creates constant pressure on the price. In other words, even if whales are not making large sales, their substantial holdings prevent prices from rising.

It is crucial to be cautious when assessing this situation. Monitoring the movements of large investors can be beneficial for predicting price changes. Especially when whale activity is high, it is advisable to be prepared for sudden price drops.

In conclusion, whales have a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. Tracking their movements can help us better understand the market and make more informed investment decisions.

Written by datascope

This chart shows an increasing trend in the number of addresses within each balance range over time, indicating growing demand and accumulation of ETH.

Notably, the increase in addresses with large balances suggests that institutional investors or "whales" are accumulating more ETH.

Black Line: Represents the price of ETH.

Blue Area: Represents addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 ETH.

Orange Area: Represents addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 ETH.

Green Area: Represents addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH.

Purple Area: Represents addresses holding more than 100,000 ETH.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

1. An interesting fact is that the CryptoQuant exchange deposit alerts have not occurred for about three weeks (see photo 3). Even if we assume that the alerts are not occurring due to a temporary error, it is clear from photos 1 and 2.

2. There are still no signs of the exchange deposits accumulating or rapidly increasing to create direct selling pressure on the market (see photos 2 and 3).

It is clear that over 200,000 Bitcoins have been sold since March. However, if there are still no signs of Bitcoins being accumulated or deposited into exchanges, it can be assumed that most of them were traded over-the-counter.(otc)

Written by Mignolet

Open interest indicates the total number of transactions.

If OI rises while the price rises, we can say that it supports the price, indicating a strong rise.

If open interest is increasing while the price is falling, we can infer a strong decline.

Based on this, if the open interest is falling while the price is rising, it suggests that the price may soon reverse. Conversely, if open interest falls while the price falls, it indicates that a rise may soon begin.

With the approval of the ETH open interest ETF, open interest has risen to $12B, which seems to support the rise in price.

I added the EMA144 here, and we see that it acts as support and resistance.

When the price enters a bull trend, EMA144 provides the best long opportunities.

When the price enters a bear trend, we see that it offers the best selling points.

Summary: When we enter a bearish trend, moving above it is a selling opportunity. In a bullish trend, falling below it is a buying opportunity.

For now, we can expect the rise to continue until the positions are closed, but this alone does not make sense.

Written by XBTManager

The Coinbase Premium Index provided by CryptoQuant refers to the value obtained by subtracting the coin price on the Binance exchange from the coin price on the Coinbase Pro exchange. The higher the premium, the stronger the buying pressure from US investors.

There are reports that since the BTC spot ETF was approved in the US, the influence of US investors on the BTC price has increased. Therefore, it is important to look at the movements of the Coinbase exchange they mainly use.

We analyzed the short-term momentum of the Coinbase Premium Index by setting it to a 1-hour time frame and using the daily (24-hour) and weekly (168-hour) moving averages.

The results show that when the 🔴daily moving average strongly crosses above the 🔵weekly moving average, a significant price movement often follows. Specifically, a 📈golden cross, where the daily band rises above the weekly band, is typically followed by a price increase, while a 📉death cross indicates a subsequent price decline.

Although this indicator is based on trends observed from the Coinbase and Binance exchanges and may produce false signals, it could still be a useful reference for swing traders.

Written by Yonsei_dent

Ethereum is surpassing Bitcoin in the growth of open interest in the current period. Are we approaching altcoin season?

If Ethereum’s price continues to consolidate in the current range, it’s very possible that the altcoin season will start sooner than expected.

Written by abramchart

A segment of payment functions now resides in a multi-faceted communication application. In the Asia market, WeChat leads this space, while in Asian markets, Telegram's adoption is lower, as seen in the map views of user adoption for WeChat and Telegram.

Telegram's announcement to make TON its primary Web3 infrastructure enhances long-term competition. However, short-term opportunities depend on Telegram maintaining its dominance as a multi-faceted Web3 communication platform.

The tokenomics of the TON environment link Telegram's active user base directly to active wallet addresses for TON services and payment functionalities. Steady adoption of Telegram in under-banked and unbanked regions, such as Africa, could drive the price. Currently, with a supply of 5 billion coins and an inflation rate of 2 percent, leading to an estimated 10 billion coins in 35 years (as per the whitepaper), steady price increases are likely in the long run.

Price analysis over one year and a 90-day percentage return indicates steady growth in TON adoption, with increasing activity and demand for the TON coin. This trend is primarily driven by Telegram's limited features. Therefore, continued upside in the token is expected.

Final Thoughts:

The TON coin is comparable to Chainlink. While Chainlink serves as a bridge for chains, TON aims to be the bridge for multi-faceted modern communication channels.

Written by ShivenMoodley

Bitcoin's price has nearly recovered from a 22% drawdown from its all-time high, showing strong support at $60,000. This support level is influenced by the behavior of new whale cohorts. Let's analyze the realized price and supply trends among different Bitcoin address cohorts to understand market dynamics and future price implications.

Realized Price by Address Cohorts: New vs. Old Whales

The first chart shows the realized price (RP) trends for new whales, old whales, and addresses with balances exceeding 10,000 BTC.

Key Observations:

New Whales RP: The green line represents new whales (addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC with an average coin age of less than six months). Their RP has risen significantly, closely following Bitcoin's market price, indicating continuous accumulation at higher prices.

Old Whales RP: The orange line for old whales (addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC with an average coin age of more than six months) remains relatively flat, suggesting these holders have a stable, lower average cost basis.

Large Balances RP: The purple line for addresses with balances over 10,000 BTC shows a steady increase, aligning with the overall bullish trend.

Implications:

The alignment of new whales' RP with Bitcoin's market price, especially after the SEC approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, indicates sustained buying pressure from this cohort.

The stable RP of old whales suggests they are not significantly affecting recent liquidity changes.

Written by onchained

Transactions exceeding $1M USD dominate the on-chain volume of TON. Following the rise of Toncoin in 2024, there has been a significant increase in high-value transactions in dollars, indicating growing interest from whales and increased network activity among these participants. The number of such transactions has also increased proportionally, undoubtedly contributing to the rise in Toncoin's price. As a result, TON has become a robust blockchain with high value transfer capacity and a gradual increase in participation from large investors.

Written by joaowedson

The whales’ appetite for buying Bitcoin has returned strongly, after a two-month decline in buying interest since March.

They are now returning with a strong buying force again, indicating that the current prices are suitable for purchasing and accumulating despite the widespread fear.

Written by abramchart

BTCs on the exchange are interpreted as selling pressure. Especially in case of sharp price increases, the first place we should look is the exchange reserves.

Since Bitcoin's bottom, we have seen a steady decline in exchange reserves. When we tested the 60k band recently, the reserves had also bottomed out. When we got a reaction from here and reached the 70k region, an increase in reserves was observed and the price experienced a correction.

At this point, the level we need to pay attention to is the 2m $btc region. If we see a buildup above this level, we can interpret it as a sales preparation by the whales. We have observed an increase in reserves in recent days. It is possible to interpret this increase as operational sales made by miners. . As a basis for this, we can show the decrease in miners' reserves in the same period.

Written by KriptoBaykusV2

The fall of the Puell Multiple after a halving of Bitcoin is a phenomenon that can have several implications and meanings for the market.

The halving, which occurs approximately every four years, halves the mining reward per block, directly impacting miners' income.

With the reward reduced, miners' daily revenue decreases substantially, unless the price of Bitcoin rises significantly to compensate for this reduction.

Given that the Puell Multiple is the ratio between daily revenue and the 365-day moving average, a sharp drop in daily revenue after halving leads to a decrease in the Puell Multiple, as the long-term moving average takes time to adjust to this new reality.

The reduction in miners' daily revenue indicates that mining has become less profitable, unless the price of Bitcoin increases significantly. The current range in which the Puell Multiple is quoted confirms Price discount, meaning that the network is potentially cheap.

The decrease in the supply of new bitcoins could create upward pressure on the price, especially if demand continues to grow. Investors may interpret the fall in the Puell Multiple as a sign that the market is adjusting to a new phase of scarcity, potentially preparing for a rally.

Therefore, this phenomenon could signal a phase of adjustment in the mining market, influence the supply and demand of Bitcoin and possibly anticipate significant movements in the price.

Written by G a a h

One way to assess the level of decentralization among the wealthiest and the poorest in terms of balance quantity is through the Gini coefficient. And the TON Blockchain is becoming even more decentralized over time.

A decline in the Gini coefficient over time on the TON blockchain can indicate a more equitable distribution of wealth among TON token holders. The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality, where values closer to 0 indicate a more equitable distribution of wealth and values closer to 1 indicate a more unequal distribution.

Therefore, if the Gini coefficient is decreasing over time, it suggests that wealth concentration is diminishing and that more individuals or addresses are acquiring TON tokens more equitably. This can be interpreted as a sign of increased participation and resource distribution in the TON network, which can be seen as positive in terms of decentralization and community inclusion."

Written by joaowedson