CryptoQuant Quicktake

Recent quarterly performance highlights a clear shift in Bitcoin market structure. After a strong mid-2025 expansion phase marked by consistent positive quarterly returns, performance has turned negative in recent periods. This transition suggests the market has moved away from trend continuation and into a corrective or consolidation regime. Such shifts typically reflect weakening marginal demand rather than a structural breakdown, especially following an extended rally.

Drawdown analysis provides further context. Current pullbacks are approaching deeper historical correction zones, levels more commonly associated with cyclical resets than full-scale bear market capitulation. Price remains below the 1-year average drawdown, indicating that downside pressure is no longer brief or opportunistic. This environment often coincides with reduced risk appetite and more selective capital deployment.

Derivatives data reinforces this interpretation. The Futures Open Interest percent change oscillator shows repeated sharp contractions, signaling aggressive leverage unwinding. Large negative open interest shocks have consistently aligned with local price lows, implying that forced liquidations, rather than sustained spot selling, are driving recent volatility. This behavior is characteristic of leverage-driven corrections rather than broad capital flight.

Finally, the 90-day Market versus Realized Price Gradient Oscillator points to fading macro momentum. The gradient has spent increasing time below its baseline and near lower deviation bands, reflecting a loss of bullish impulse relative to realized price. Historically, this configuration aligns with late-cycle cooling phases, where price action becomes range-bound while the market works to rebuild a healthier cost basis. A durable recovery would likely require leverage stabilization alongside renewed spot demand.

Written by CryptoZeno

The investment market is currently a tale of two worlds. While precious metals and U.S. equities continue to hit all-time highs, Bitcoin’s on-chain data is flashing warning signs. A "confluence" of two core indicators reveals a deepening fatigue in the crypto market.

1️⃣ Institutional Exodus: The Coinbase Discount The Coinbase Premium Index remains deeply negative, hitting a periodic low of -0.169%. This indicates that selling pressure during U.S. trading hours far exceeds the global average. With the index turning positive only twice in January, this persistent negative premium serves as a strong signal of deleveraging by institutions and high-net-worth individuals.

2️⃣ Evaporating "Dry Powder": Capital Flight to Fiat Even more concerning is the contraction of stablecoin market caps. The top 12 stablecoins saw $2.24 billion (with a total peak-to-trough decline of $5.6 billion) vanish recently. This isn't a typical "rotation into stables" to buy the dip; it is a direct exit from the crypto ecosystem back into fiat currency. Without this "dry powder" standing by, any market rebound will lack necessary momentum.

Market Insight：

Caught between an institutional retreat and shrinking liquidity, the market is currently skewed to the downside.

Bear Case: If selling pressure intensifies, watch for a test of key structural supports: the True Mean Price at $81K, 2024 top at $70,000, or the 200-week MA at 58K.

Bull Case: A prolonged period of sideways consolidation to absorb overhead supply, remaining range-bound until stablecoin inflows return and new capital re-enters the fray.

Written by Sunny Mom

XRP data on Binance indicates a delicate state of cautious equilibrium in the market, with current values reflecting a combination of long-term structural weakness and limited short-term recovery attempts. According to the latest data, XRP is trading at around 1.89, while the 200-day moving average stands near 2.54, meaning the price remains approximately 25% below this average. This discrepancy clearly indicates that the overall long-term trend has not yet transitioned into a sustained uptrend, and that the market is still operating within a corrective range rather than a structural one.

From a risk-adjusted return perspective, the 30-day Sharpe Ratio registers a low value of 0.034, a reading very close to zero. This suggests that the return achieved over the past month offers minimal compensation for the level of risk assumed, reflecting a trading environment characterized by consolidation and a lack of clear directional conviction. Such readings typically emerge during rebalancing phases, when traders’ impulsiveness declines and the market becomes increasingly sensitive to changes in liquidity conditions.

Conversely, the Sharpe Z-Score shows a positive reading of approximately 0.70, indicating a relative improvement in return quality compared to the recent historical average. However, this level still falls short of the statistically significant threshold associated with strong trend formation. This implies that the market has partially recovered from prior pressures but has not yet entered a phase of clear risk-adjusted outperformance.

Meanwhile, the 7-day Sharpe Momentum, at around 0.03, reflects weak positive momentum in the short term. Although this indicator remains above zero, its modest level suggests that the current price behavior is more consistent with gradual consolidation or base-building, rather than a strong or impulsive price advance.

Written by Arab Chain

A common narrative suggests that Bitcoin sell-offs are financing the rally in precious metals, particularly gold. On-chain data does not support this view.

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) indicates that capital is not leaving the crypto ecosystem, but remains in liquidity, waiting for opportunities to enter Bitcoin.

What Does the Stablecoin Supply Ratio Measure?

The SSR measures the purchasing power of stablecoins relative to Bitcoin.

A lower SSR reflects higher latent purchasing power, while a higher SSR means liquidity has already been deployed into BTC.

Key SSR Levels

Historically, the SSR has moved within clear ranges:

Above 15–16: low stablecoin purchasing power, liquidity deployed.

Between 10 and 15: neutral zone, often linked to consolidation.

Below 10–11: high latent purchasing power, often preceding bullish phases.

These levels provide structural context, not timing signals.

Reading the Current Context

The SSR stands at 12.57, down from recent highs in the 18–19 range.

This reflects a shift from deployed liquidity to liquidity on hold.

Bitcoin’s price remains structurally stable, indicating that capital is not exiting, but waiting.

Diversification, Not Rotation from Bitcoin to Gold

The gold rally should not be interpreted as a direct result of Bitcoin selling.

Large capital allocators follow multi-asset diversification strategies, holding exposure to equities, precious metals, digital assets, and stablecoins.

The lower SSR confirms that capital is not rotating from Bitcoin into gold, but diversifying while keeping liquidity within the crypto ecosystem.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is not financing the gold rally.

Liquidity is waiting, not fleeing.

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio shows that capital remains sidelined in stablecoins, ready to re-enter Bitcoin. With the SSR at 12.57, the market is in a pause phase that has historically preceded clearer directional moves.

by Carmelo Alemán, On Chain Analist at Cryptoquant

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

• Long-Term Holders’ behavior during the current cycle: distribution (red area) and holding (green area).

• Over the past few months, they shifted from −674K BTC (6) to +191K BTC (7).

Written by _OnChain

The FOMC announced on January 28, 2026 (U.S. time) that policy rates would be held at 3.75%, reinforcing a wait-and-see stance near neutral. Economic activity remains solid, the labor market shows signs of stabilization, and inflation is still somewhat elevated. The message was clear: there is no urgency to ease policy.

While FOMC decisions consistently attract attention in crypto markets, historical data shows that these meetings rarely define Bitcoin’s medium-term direction. Instead, they tend to function as positioning reset points.

Looking at FOMC meetings in 2025, Bitcoin’s 7-day performance after each decision was inconsistent. Rate-hold meetings produced mixed but relatively mild moves, while rate cuts in September, October, and December were followed by declines of roughly 6–8%. This suggests that outcomes were driven less by policy itself and more by market conditions going into the event.

Ahead of FOMC meetings, leverage and open interest often build as expectations become widely shared. Volatility compresses and liquidity thins, creating an appearance of stability. However, once the event passes and no new bullish catalyst emerges, markets shift into adjustment mode. Particularly during rate-cut cycles, easing expectations are frequently priced in beforehand, turning the decision into a trigger for profit-taking and position unwinds.

On-chain and derivatives data consistently show that post-FOMC moves are characterized by higher volume, wider spreads, and faster price swings. This reflects structural cleanup rather than a change in long-term trend.

The key takeaway is that FOMC meetings do not decide Bitcoin’s direction. They expose how crowded positioning has become and accelerate its resolution. Over the next 30 days, the critical signals will come not from policy rhetoric, but from whether leverage, selling pressure, and liquidity conditions normalize after the event.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals a fascinating divergence. While the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Tether (ERC20) active addresses has gone parabolic, touching a record 300,000, Bitcoin failed to breach the critical $92k resistance and faced a pullback.

The key insight lies in combining this metric with the observed stablecoin outflows from exchanges. A surge in active addresses coupled with exchange outflows is typically not a signal of immediate buying pressure on Centralized Exchanges (CEXs). Instead, it points toward a capital rotation into DeFi protocols or Self-Custody wallets.

This behavior suggests that following Bitcoin’s correction, investors are not cashing out into fiat (leaving the market completely). Rather, they are choosing to hold liquidity in Tether and move it on-chain. The spike in network activity is likely driven by users seeking yield (farming) during market chopping or executing swaps on Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs). Liquidity hasn’t left the ecosystem; it is accumulating in the underlying layers of the Ethereum network, potentially waiting for the next clear trend to deploy.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin’s price action currently presents an intriguing divergence, holding steady around the $90k level despite Bybit exhibiting distinctive negative funding rates that imply a temporary but aggressive skew toward short-selling (image 1). This derivative pressure appears to coincide with weakness in the spot market, evidenced by a sustained negative Coinbase Premium that suggests persistent spot selling pressure (image 2). Consequently, the market's immediate trajectory will likely be determined by whether broader futures activity across other major exchanges aligns with this specific bearish flow or absorbs it, setting the stage for the next volatility expansion.

Written by nino

The XRP Ledger has started 2026 with remarkable on-chain momentum. The 14-day Moving Average (MA) of DEX Transaction Count has surged to 1.014 million, breaking a ceiling that has held since the beginning of 2025.

Reaching a 13-month high is a significant technical and fundamental milestone. It indicates that after a year of consolidation or steady usage in 2025, the network is experiencing a fresh wave of liquidity and user engagement. This isn’t just a momentary spike; the moving average confirms a sustained trend of increased trading activity on the decentralized exchange.

This breakout suggests that the XRPL ecosystem is maturing, with rising demand for token swaps and DeFi interactions as we move deeper into 2026. Historically, breaking such a long-standing resistance in on-chain activity often correlates with renewed market interest and potential positive price action for the native asset.

Written by CryptoOnchain

📰 Daily Market Update:

The chart provides a deeper layer of analysis by breaking down BTC deposits into Binance based on coin age, meaning how long the coins stayed dormant before being moved to the exchange.

📊 [Bitcoin] Binance Exchange Inflow by Holder Age

This chart tracks BTC inflows to Binance, segmented by coin age — how long the BTC sat in wallets before being moved.

🔬 Key observation:

📈 Over the last few hours, Binance recorded a total inflow of 395 BTC, mostly from the 1W–1M age band.

⏲️ Notably, this is the second inflow event in January:

📅 January 15: ~52 BTC deposited

📅 Current event: 395 BTC deposited

📅 The last time a similar inflow from short-term holders occurred on January 15, Bitcoin was trading around $96,000.

Over the following 10 days, BTC gradually declined toward the $88,000 area.

🧠 Final Thoughts

Short-term Bitcoin holder inflows into Binance are not a macro top signal, but they are a valuable short-term risk indicator.

The current 395 BTC inflow from the 1W–1M cohort suggests that some recent buyers are choosing to reduce exposure.

Written by Amr Taha

Looking at the Realized Cap, we can see that it has surged sharply in this cycle and is now approaching Bitcoin’s Market Cap.

The first chart shows the full historical period, and the second chart focuses on the period after the COVID crash and the peak around the 3rd halving cycle.

(Bitcoin Realized Cap)

The fact that the Realized Cap has recently moved close to the Market Cap suggests that long-dormant Bitcoins have been transferred to exchanges and sold.

The third chart shows the buying and selling behavior of long-term holders.

(Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Net Position Change – 30D Sum)

In fact, OG whales seemed to want to end this 4th cycle in November.

As highlighted in the red box, they attempted a strong distribution phase, but failed and eventually stopped selling.

The red circle indicates that they have recently started accumulating again, albeit gradually.

Historically, whenever long-term holder accumulation has accelerated, a bull market has followed. This pattern can also be confirmed in previous cycles on the same chart.

This trend is further supported by the LTH Net Position Change on-chain metric.

Therefore, it is still highly likely that the Bitcoin cycle has not yet ended.

Written by CoinNiel

On-chain data indicates a simultaneous decline in ERC20 stablecoin and Bitcoin exchange reserves between January 18 and January 24.

All Stablecoins (ERC20): Exchange Reserve – All Exchanges decreased from $72.5B to $67.8B.

At the exchange level, All Stablecoins (ERC20): Exchange Reserve – Binance also dropped significantly from $48.5B to $44.4B.

Under normal conditions, concurrent outflows of stablecoins and Bitcoin from exchanges suggest reduced short-term sell pressure and improving supply dynamics. However, the current macro backdrop points to an alternative interpretation.

During the same period, precious metals experienced historic rallies, with gold reaching a new all-time high of $5,280 and silver surging to a record $114. Rising geopolitical tensions, including the risk of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran, have reinforced a global risk-off environment, driving capital toward traditional safe-haven assets.

Within this context, part of the stablecoin outflows—particularly from a major exchange like Binance—may reflect capital rotation from crypto markets into gold and silver, rather than immediate reinvestment into crypto spot markets.

Therefore, while declining exchange reserves remain structurally supportive for crypto, confirmation of a bullish scenario requires additional validation from spot trading volumes, cross-market capital flows, and global risk sentiment indicators.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Both indicators are aligned. Both flashing caution.

The Composite vs BTC Risk Oscillator sits at 52—firmly in risk-off territory. The On-Chain Pressure Oscillator shows elevated stress at 34+, converging with bear market levels and local bottoms.

This isn't divergence. It's confluence on the stress side.

📊 The Pattern We're Living Through

The Risk Oscillator is doing its job—the last risk-off signal came October 22nd, just before a massive drawdown. The indicator caught it accurately.

But we're back in risk-off territory again. Trends aren't persisting long enough to build sustained momentum. We get the signal, the move happens, then we return to stress before real follow-through develops.

The environment isn't allowing for conviction. Signals are accurate, but the macro backdrop keeps pulling us back into caution.

⚠️ What I'm Watching for the Shift

The Pressure Oscillator (30d SMA) sits around 34. For a proper recovery trend—not just a bounce—this needs to cross below zero. That threshold confirms selling exhaustion is real, not temporarily paused.

We're seeing significant selling pressure now, which pushed this indicator up considerably. It's converging with local bottoms and bear market levels, telling us the market is under genuine stress.

Historical context: March 2023 saw Pressure cross below zero after sustained risk-off. A 40% rally followed over three months as both indicators flipped favorable.

Right now, both are aligned on stress. Both need to flip before confirmed trend change.

💬 Why These Two Work Together

The Risk Oscillator reads macro risk appetite. The Pressure Oscillator reads on-chain selling behavior — coins moving at a loss.

When both align on stress (now): patience required.

When both align on recovery (Pressure <0, Risk flips risk-on): trend-following setups improve.

We're not there yet. Time will reward the patient.

--

Note: Trend-following signals, not mean reversion. Different approach for different phases.

Written by RugaResearch

Data from Binance indicates that Bitcoin’s price behavior is currently undergoing a clear rebalancing phase, as shown in the chart combining price action, moving averages (30-, 90-, and 200-day), and cyclical indicators such as Cycle Return and the Z-Score. This combination allows for a deeper reading of market structure beyond short-term price movements.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $89,000, a level below the 200-day moving average (around $104,000) and close to the 30- and 90-day moving averages. This consolidation reflects a transitional phase in the trend: the market does not show clear structural weakness, but it has not yet confirmed a return to long-term bullish momentum. Historically, movement between these moving averages is often associated with base formation and liquidity repositioning.

From a cyclical perspective, the data shows the market is approximately 114 days into the current cycle and about 648 days since the last halving event. This timeframe is typically characterized by elevated volatility and slower price momentum, with the market tending to trade within wide ranges rather than making rapid upward moves. This behavior aligns with current market volatility without a decisive trend breakout.

The Z-Score is registering a slightly negative reading of approximately -0.5, suggesting that the price is not in a historically overbought zone and does not indicate overstretched conditions. Such readings are often interpreted as a favorable environment for continued accumulation, especially in the absence of strong selling-pressure signals.

Written by Arab Chain

$BTC and spot ETFs have been moving in lockstep.

And there’s one line that separates a nasty correction from a deeper bear phase. ⚠️

📊 CryptoQuant chart:

🔹 BTC ETF cumulative flow: +$66.4B

🔹 Drawdown from ATH: -$62.1K

🔹 BTC ETF realized price (cost basis): ~$75K

🔹 BTC spot: ~$89K

🧠 What it means:

• 2024-2025 = steady ETF accumulation.

• Price rose with inflows. The relationship is clear.

• After the ATH, inflows stopped building while price kept bleeding. Demand cooled.

⚠️ The real risk:

Lose ~$75K (ETF cost basis), and a big chunk of ETF buyers turn underwater. That’s where selling pressure can snowball.

🧭 Levels I’m watching:

🟢 Support: ~$75K

🔴 Resistance: ~$100K

📌 Takeaway: Above ~75K = ugly correction. Below ~75K = bear risk jumps.

Written by IT Tech

The chart reveals a clear and recurring behavior. When the Whale Ratio rises, price reactions typically unfold in three stages. In the first stage, price remains strong while the Whale Ratio increases. During this phase, price often continues to rise or moves sideways because selling pressure has not yet been priced in.

In the second stage, as the Whale Ratio reaches elevated levels and stays high, distribution from the top begins. Price usually forms a local top and enters a sharp correction. The higher and more persistent the Whale Ratio, the stronger the downside reaction that follows.

The third stage is characterized by increased volatility. Sudden pullbacks and sharp wicks appear, making conditions risky for long positions.

When the Whale Ratio is at low levels, selling pressure is minimal. Price either moves sideways in an accumulation phase or starts a controlled upward trend. Especially after the Whale Ratio forms a bottom, price tends to consolidate briefly before breaking to the upside. Low Whale Ratio consistently creates a foundation for bullish moves.

Looking at the current situation, the Whale Ratio is neither at extreme highs nor at historical lows. It remains above its SMA(100) but within a manageable range. This suggests that whales are no longer engaging in aggressive selling, instead opting for gradual distribution. As a result, price action reflects a sideway to mildly bearish structure rather than a full accumulation phase.

At this Whale Ratio level, the probability of a sharp dump is low, but the likelihood of a strong rally is also limited. Upside moves are likely to remain corrective, while declines progress in a sideways manner. A decisive trend change would require a sharp move in the Whale Ratio either upward or downward. Given ongoing institutional involvement, such a shift does not appear likely in the near term.

The key driver for the next major price move will be the direction in which the Whale Ratio breaks from here.

Written by PelinayPA

A drop in ERC-20 stablecoin supply is often framed as “liquidity leaving crypto.” The numbers tell a different story: Liquidity is moving across networks.

What happened (with dates)

USDT (TRC-20, Tron)

• Jan 19, 2026: 82,434,679,540

• Jan 20, 2026: 83,434,679,540

• Change: +1.0B USDT in one day

This was a direct mint on Tron.

Ethereum (ERC-20)

• USDT ERC-20: -3.0B

• USDC ERC-20: -3.55B

• Total: ≈ -6.5B stablecoins removed from Ethereum

Timing matters: The TRC-20 increase came right after the ERC-20 contraction.

What it means:

This isn’t a clean “exit to fiat.” It’s a shift in where liquidity sits and how it’s used.

• USDT mainly supports derivatives, OTC settlement, and tactical liquidity - and it regularly migrates to cheaper rails

• USDC is more tied to spot activity and on-chain settlement, making it a cleaner proxy for spot-demand conditions

When USDT + USDC shrink on Ethereum while USDT expands on Tron, the simplest read is: Liquidity is changing rails, not disappearing.

Interpretation:

• Liquidity remains inside the crypto system

• Demand for Ethereum-based settlement has been softening over time

• Positioning looks more defensive, with a preference for derivatives and parked liquidity over spot accumulation

So falling ERC-20 stablecoin supply is:

• Bearish for Ethereum on-chain activity

• Neutral-to-bearish for spot-driven risk

• Not evidence of capital leaving crypto entirely

Bottom line: Stablecoins didn’t vanish - they moved rails 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

After experiencing a drawdown of more than 30% from BTC’s latest all time high, we can observe a clear contraction in BTC flows toward Binance.

Historically, the average monthly BTC inflow to Binance has been around 12,000 BTC.

Today, this average has been cut in half, with only about 5,800 BTC per month flowing into the exchange, a level that has not been seen since 2020.

More interestingly, for several months now, inflows have remained consistently below this historical average of 12,000 BTC, suggesting that the current dynamic is becoming structural rather than temporary.

It is important to understand that BTC inflows to exchanges are generally associated with potential selling pressure.

When bitcoins leave the on chain network or cold wallets to be transferred to an exchange, the primary objective is most often to sell them.

This is precisely why analyzing BTC inflows on Binance, which still captures a dominant share of total exchange flows, provides key insights into investor behavior and intent.

Moreover, we are clearly dealing with a structural trend rather than a one off signal. Using a monthly average helps smooth out the noise caused by exceptional movements or isolated large transfers, offering a much more robust view of the underlying market trend.

In conclusion, this historically low level of BTC inflows represents a rather positive signal. Despite a period of Bitcoin consolidation and growing macroeconomic uncertainty, investors appear more inclined to hold their BTC rather than transfer them to exchanges for selling purposes.

In other words, the dominant behavior today is holding, not distribution.

Written by Darkfost

On this Super Wednesday, the market already considers it certain that there will be no interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This consensus helps explain the VIX at 16.89, a level that places it in the range of moderate volatility and in the alert zone. However, the dollar remains weakened, a direct reflection of the political and economic decisions of President Donald Trump. This movement led investors to abandon the U.S. market in search of safety in metals, driving a rally led by gold and silver.

In this environment, the **VIX–BTC Risk Correlation** gains prominence. The indicator measures how peaks of volatility in the traditional market (VIX) are connected to local and cyclical bottom movements of Bitcoin. The tool offers a clear reading of the correlation between risk in TradFi and opportunities in the crypto market, functioning as a thermometer of inflection in moments of stress.

FOMC MEETING DATA

◾In 2025 → Bitcoin fell in 6 of 7 FOMC meetings.

◾Average drop → 7.47% in days.

◾Current rate → between 3.50% and 3.75% per year, lowest since September 2022.

◾Repurchase → The Fed announced it will repurchase US$ 40 billion in Treasury Bills over 30 days.

VIX–BTC RISK CORRELATION DATA

◾VIX level → 16.89 → alert zone, indicating moderate volatility.

◾History → signaled the last two local bottoms of the cycle.

◾Previous Bear Market → also identified the bottom of the last bear cycle.

◾Interpretation → in high volatility and risk, the indicator reinforces correlation between stress in TradFi and BTC inflection points

CONCLUSION

The global market bets an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve should only occur in March or September. Meanwhile, the VIX–BTC Risk Correlation shows that even with stable rates, risk remains. The current reading suggests the crypto market stays sensitive to stress promoted by the U.S., and Super Wednesday may be another test of this correlation between volatility and Bitcoin bottoms.

Written by GugaOnChain

On January 23rd, we observed a spike in UTXOs spent by STHs.

Block 933503 contained several UTXO consolidation transactions that put roughly 217,000 BTC in motion.

— 💡 UTXO stands for Unspent Transaction Output. It’s the mechanism that ensures a BTC is only sold once and allows us to determine when it was bought and at what price.—

These BTC were not sold.

They were sent from an address back to the same address, purely to aggregate the UTXOs held by that address.

In total, around 188,000 BTC came from the 3m–6m age band, 30,900 BTC from the 1m–3m band, and 31,700 BTC from the 1w–1m band.

All BTC aged between 3m and 6m were likely acquired between $126,000 and $102,000 (October 10 crash).

As a result, even though this movement of roughly 217,000 BTC is not particularly large, it destroyed UTXOs with a realized price well above BTC’s price on January 23rd.

This once again impacts many indicators related to STHs (MVRV, SOPR, Cost basis (a bit) …)and not only them.

The spike in realized losses observed on the second chart is in fact linked to this event and therefore represents yet another false signal as it was the case during the Coinbase move on November 22-23.

In reality, if we remove these extraordinary events, there is very little activity in the market at the moment.

Written by Darkfost