After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture. The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding. Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
Inside, you’ll get: • Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro) • Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios • Smart money flow breakdowns • Clear market structure insights • Direct access + a serious community
This is NOT a signals group. This is where you build a real edge. If you’re tired of: - following the crowd - entering too late - not understanding why the market moves
Then this is exactly for you. Founder one-time access: $39 Limited spots available
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The market doesn’t reward the fastest. It rewards the most prepared.
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
$BTC is trading at $62,682 between two major liquidity pools. Above, $3.02B in short liquidations sits at $63.5K–$64.9K; below, $6B in long liquidations rests at $61.2K–$61.5K. Upside liquidity leads short term, but a break below $61.2K could accelerate selling.
Strategy bought zero Bitcoin last week. They bought 3.1 months of time.
And every $MSTR shareholder paid for the clock without being asked. The filing looks like a company that lost its nerve. It is the opposite. Between July 6th and 12th, Strategy issued 4,818,781 shares, raised 466.7 million dollars, touched not a single Bitcoin, and lifted their dollar reserve by 450 million to 3.0 billion. Its 843,775 Bitcoin sat still. Read that as surrender and you miss the most interesting trade Mike & Phong Le have made. Run the arithmetic on their own published numbers. Assumed diluted shares went from 401.294 million on June 30 to 406.099 million on July 12th. That lowered the $BTC sitting behind each share by 1.18%. Meanwhile the reserve now covers roughly 20.5 months of preferred dividends and debt interest, which run about 1.76 billion dollars a year, up from 17.4 months. So the exchange rate was this. Roughly 1% of everyone's Bitcoin per share, for 3 months of breathing room. It was not an accident. It was a mere purchase. Why buy time instead of coins? Because the machine that made Mike famous stopped working. Strategy's enterprise value now hovers near one times the Bitcoin behind it, and at that level issuing shares to buy Bitcoin adds nothing per share. It just spreads the same coins across a bigger crowd. Mike's own June 2026 framework calls for restraint with common issuance exactly there. So the most valuable thing Strategy could buy last week was not another orange dot. It was months. The capital structure has quietly become something else. Bitcoin at the foundation. Debt and preferred stock stacked above it, demanding American dollars. And common shareholders underneath the whole thing, absorbing every shock so the coins never have to move. The common holder is no longer a part-owner of a Bitcoin pile. He is the airbag protecting it. Mike's real invention finally shows itself here, and it is not what anyone thinks. He did not build leverage without risk. Mike built leverage with a different failure clock. Ordinary leverage kills you in an afternoon: price drops, the lender calls, you sell at the bottom. Strategy cannot die that way, because no lender can seize those Bitcoins. It can only weaken slowly, if recurring dollar obligations start outrunning its ability to raise cheap capital. The 3 billion dollar reserve is the mechanism that converts one into the other. He did not delete the danger. Mike simply changed the speed at which it arrives, and then he bought more of the slow kind. The whole experiment now reduces to a single sentence. Bitcoin does not need to produce a yield. It needs to appreciate faster than this capital structure consumes time. Three paths follow. - If Bitcoin rallies, the premium returns, issuance turns accretive, and the buying machine restarts. - If it drifts sideways, the reserve drains against 1.76 billion a year, the financing repeats, and Bitcoin per share erodes into a coin vehicle carrying an expensive credit layer. - If it breaks down hard, equity and preferred both turn punitive, and the reserve everyone calls permanent becomes the thing that gets spent. None of this is distress. There is no "margin call", no "covenant breach", no "forced seller". The reserve is genuine protection and exists precisely so Strategy never has to dump coins into a crash. And they are not trapped into two choices either. Mike & Phong Le can issue common, preferred or debt, refinance, adjust certain dividend rates, buy back cheap securities, use operating cash, or monetize Bitcoin. It has many fuels. Every one of them has a price, and this week management decided the common shareholder was the cheapest thing to spend. So stop counting how much Bitcoin they bought this week. Rather, Watch 3 numbers move together instead: Bitcoin per diluted share, months of cash coverage, and enterprise mNAV. Saylor bought no Bitcoin last week. He bought 3.1 months for the Bitcoin he already owns, and 1.18 percent of your stake is what paid for it. Let that sink in.
🚨 Markets react to Trump's remarks and his presence is becoming a real source of market uncertainty.
Trump said the United States would take control of and secure the Strait of Hormuz.
The markets reacted immediately. Bitcoin ($BTC ) fell toward $62,000.The Nasdaq opened down around 1%.WTI crude oil climbed to approximately $76 per barrel. $CL After Iran disrupted activity around the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, Trump is now saying the U.S. will act as its "guardian." At the same time, large Bitcoin short positions are building rapidly, with open interest continuing to rise.
This doesn't look like ordinary market fear some major players appear to have positioned for this move in advance.
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Any escalation could trigger the following chain reaction: Higher oil prices → Higher inflation → The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates higher for longer → Increased pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
All of this... courtesy of the "Great Orange One."
The current $BTC Bear Market can already be considered one of the most severe in its history.
Percent Supply in Loss has returned to levels similar to those observed in November 2022, showing that an extremely large share of the circulating supply is currently underwater.
But there is one important difference.
In November 2022, Bitcoin had approximately 19.2 million BTC in circulation. Today, the circulating supply is close to 20.05 million BTC.
This means that even with a similar percentage of the supply in loss, the absolute amount of Bitcoin trading below its acquisition price is significantly higher today.
In other words, more coins are currently carrying unrealized losses than during the 2022 cycle bottom.
This scenario also exposes an uncomfortable reality about the previous Bull Market. Despite new all time highs, institutional adoption, and the expansion of Bitcoin ETFs, a massive portion of the market ended up buying at elevated prices and now remains underwater.
From the perspective of how losses are distributed across investors, the previous Bull Market may be considered one of the weakest and least inclusive in Bitcoin’s history.
Percent Supply in Loss measures the share of the circulating supply that is currently underwater.
The higher the indicator, the larger the fraction of the market holding positions at a loss, which is commonly associated with market stress, capitulation, and the later stages of major drawdowns.
The market may have reached new all time highs.
But a large portion of investors never truly participated in that appreciation.
Last cycle , $BTC spent 46 weeks below the 200 week moving average
This cycle ( so far ), $BTC has been below it for just 1-2 weeks
Many point to the 200 week MA as a bottom zone indicator, but it has historically been an extremely wide and variable zone
The two cycles before the last one had much briefer durations below the 200-week MA, but those were due to sudden drops below it that rebounded quickly
Price in the current cycle has chopped around the 200-week MA without a sharp break lower, unlike the brief dips and quick rebounds in the two prior cycles. This behavior may produce a longer duration below the average
Furthermore, in all three previous cycles, the price declined to near the 300-week MA (not pictured). That has not occurred yet. A move to that zone would involve additional time below the 200 week MA
Thus, it looks to me like everything is still lining up for a cycle low later this year, likeliest to be within a month of October (as a starting point for an educated guess)
Bear market patience is a marathon not a sprint
Bluechip
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$BTC Continuing to patiently wait for the bear market to end.
We are getting closer.
I think there's at least one more decent-sized shakeout & then we will be well within bottoming territory.
I've been bearish since November 14, 2025. I will be happy to pivot back to bullish.
And to those who want to tell me the bear market bottom is already in:
You've been telling me that this entire cycle.
The thing is: It's not impossible for the bottom to be in already (although I personally think we go lower), but the main point is you are GUESSING if you call the bottom in before we see actual structural change
And by structural change I mean: BTC needs to reclaim the 200-day moving average (white line) as well as the downtrending trend line (dotted white line) that connects the cycle top through the lower highs on the way down. Then we can talk about the bottom being in with some degree of confidence.
I prefer to go with stronger evidence of trend change. 'Til then, people are just guessing.
$BTC is showing one of the clearest signs of long-term investor conviction.
Long-Term Holder Supply is now 5.2 times larger than Short-Term Holder Supply.
At the same time, Short-Term Holder Supply has fallen to its lowest level since 2016.
Current share of Bitcoin’s total supply:
Long-Term Holders: 84% Short-Term Holders: 16% This means that most of the circulating supply is currently held by investors with a longer time horizon, while the amount controlled by short-term participants has become historically limited.
This is not just a supply statistic. It is a measure of conviction.
The more Bitcoin moves into the hands of long-term holders, the less supply tends to be immediately available for sale. If demand strengthens while this structure remains intact, the market may become increasingly sensitive to new capital inflows.
Gold and silver are sitting at a critical crossroads and the market is watching the Strait of Hormuz
This isn't just another price move. It's a moment where fear and greed are pulling in opposite directions. Let's break it down. Gold is trading around $4,100 per ounce. $XAUT Silver is hovering near $59.49. $XAG Both have eased slightly but don't mistake that for weakness. This looks more like a market waiting for its next catalyst than one that has lost conviction. Behind the scenes, three powerful forces are colliding: Geopolitical risk Inflation Bond yields And at the center of it all? Energy. Tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz one of the world's most critical oil shipping routes have pushed crude prices higher: WTI: around $72.73 $BZ Brent: around $76.08 $CL The chain reaction is straightforward: Higher oil prices → Higher costs → Higher inflation → Interest rates stay elevated for longer. Each link reinforces the next. That's why the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains elevated at around 4.53%. And here's the challenge for precious metals: As bond yields rise, assets that don't generate income—like gold and silver—become relatively less attractive. Investors naturally ask: "Why hold a metal that pays no yield when Treasuries offer a solid return?" That dynamic continues to cap upside. Yet there's another force working in the opposite direction. The U.S. labor market is clearly showing signs of cooling. June payrolls increased by just 57,000, while April and May figures were revised down by a combined 74,000 jobs. A slowing economy increases the probability of future Federal Reserve rate cuts, which would generally support precious metals. So the market is caught in a tug-of-war: Higher bond yields are pulling prices lower. A weakening labor market is pulling them higher. For now, neither side has gained full control. The market is waiting for three key catalysts: The next U.S. inflation data. Signals from the Federal Reserve. Any new developments involving the Strait of Hormuz. A surprise in any one of these could quickly shift market sentiment. Short-term volatility is likely to remain. You'll see green days and red days. But don't let daily headlines distract you from the bigger picture. Gold and silver aren't simply reacting to today's news. They reflect a world carrying unprecedented debt, growing concerns over the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies, and a gradual erosion of confidence in the global monetary system. For long-term investors, precious metals are more than commodities. They are one way of managing risk in an increasingly uncertain financial landscape.
$BTC Crypto whales are now predominantly positioned in Longs, while retail traders continue betting on further downside.
700M worth of shorts will get liquidated if BTC reaches 65.7K.
The drop may still come, but probably not in the way or at the time retail expects.
Play the game like the big players and stop trading without direction.
Bluechip
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$BTC Whales vs. Retail Delta is rising again, and you need to see this.
This means whales have reduced their short positions and are beginning to show more interest in longs across the top 250 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, which currently has a positive reading that is even stronger than most altcoins.
Meanwhile, smaller positions, typically associated with retail traders, are moving in the opposite direction and betting on further downside.
The Whale vs. Retail Delta clearly shows that around the recent $58K bottom, there was a massive increase in long exposure among whale positions.
Is this a genuine signal of growing optimism, or are whales simply taking advantage of a short term trading opportunity?
$BTC Whales vs. Retail Delta is rising again, and you need to see this.
This means whales have reduced their short positions and are beginning to show more interest in longs across the top 250 cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, which currently has a positive reading that is even stronger than most altcoins.
Meanwhile, smaller positions, typically associated with retail traders, are moving in the opposite direction and betting on further downside.
The Whale vs. Retail Delta clearly shows that around the recent $58K bottom, there was a massive increase in long exposure among whale positions.
Is this a genuine signal of growing optimism, or are whales simply taking advantage of a short term trading opportunity?
The AI bubble debate never really goes away it just keeps changing form
At first, the focus was on sky-high valuations. Then earnings came in strong, suggesting those valuations might actually be justified. Now the conversation has shifted to something else entirely: the debt behind the AI boom. Seven bond deals worth more than $25 billion have been issued in a single year the same number of mega-deals the U.S. took seven years (2019–2025) to produce. Since the start of 2026, $AMZN Alphabet ($GOOGLB ) $NVDA $Meta, Oracle, and $SPCX have collectively issued $182 billionin investment-grade bonds. Compare that with just $13 billion during the same period last year an increase of more than 1,300%. These six companies alone account for roughly 15% of all U.S. corporate bond issuance this year, and more than half of the total growth in the investment-grade bond market. For years, the prevailing assumption was that AI spending would be financed by free cash flow. That meant the risk belonged primarily to shareholders not creditors. That assumption is now changing before our eyes. When the cost of building AI data centers shifts from equity financing to debt financing, investors begin asking a different question. The question is no longer: "How much profit will AI generate?" It becomes: "Can these companies service their debt if AI returns take longer than expected?" That is the heart of today's AI bubble debate. The concern isn't just about valuations. It's about how the boom is being financed. When speculative assets are increasingly funded with borrowed money rather than internally generated cash, financial fragility extends beyond individual companies it spreads throughout the broader financial system. The bond market rarely lies. It measures credit risk and investor confidence more objectively than the stock market. And when borrowing accelerates this quickly, it sends a clear signal: Current growth is no longer enough on its own. Companies are increasingly betting on the future with money they haven't earned yet. If AI investment returns slow, even modestly who ultimately bears the cost of that debt? It's an easy question to ask. The answer could have profound consequences.
The S&P 500 remains near its highs while inflation expectations continue to stay elevated.
This chart highlights something important: the stock market is still able to advance even in an environment of structurally higher inflationary pressure.
This does not mean a decline is imminent.
But it does mean the market is becoming increasingly dependent on nominal growth, earnings expansion, and sustained investor confidence.
If inflation remains persistent, long term yields continue to rise, and real economic growth weakens, current valuations may become increasingly difficult to sustain.
While many investors focus only on price, I prefer to analyze the economic regime behind the move.
The risk is not inflation alone.
The real risk is paying elevated multiples for equities in an environment where the cost of capital may remain high for much longer. $SPYB