Blockonomi

TLDR:

Strategy requires only 1.5% annual Bitcoin appreciation to sustain $888 million dividend obligations 

The company maintains a $2.25 billion cash reserve, providing 30 months of dividend coverage independently 

Strategy holds 713,502 Bitcoin, representing 3.4% of total supply at $76,052 average purchase price 

The firm operates with 13% leverage versus 23% for investment-grade companies, with 42 basis point debt

 

Michael Saylor unveiled a dividend sustainability model that requires Bitcoin to appreciate just 1.25% annually for perpetual payments.

The Strategy Inc. Executive Chairman made this revelation during the company’s Q4 2025 earnings call on February 6, 2026.

The announcement came as Bitcoin plunged to $63,596.56, marking a 13% single-day decline. Strategy reported a $12.4 billion net loss, yet Saylor defended the treasury strategy with confidence.

Minimal Bitcoin Growth Sustains Perpetual Dividend Model

Saylor’s dividend framework centers on an exceptionally low appreciation threshold for long-term sustainability. CEO Phong Le explained that the company needs Bitcoin to increase by only 1.5% annually to maintain payments indefinitely.

The model functions by selling incremental Bitcoin holdings to cover dividend obligations while preserving the core treasury position.

Strategy holds approximately $45 billion in Bitcoin reserves against annual dividend commitments of $888 million across preferred equity instruments.

This ratio provides 67 years of dividend coverage based solely on current holdings without any price appreciation. The mathematical simplicity of the model demonstrates the company’s confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value trajectory.

Saylor extended the scenario even further during the earnings call, addressing the possibility of zero Bitcoin appreciation.

He stated that even if Bitcoin stopped appreciating entirely, Strategy would have “80 years to figure out what to do about that.”

This timeline provides substantial flexibility for strategic pivots while maintaining current dividend commitments to shareholders.

Cash Reserves and Financial Buffers Strengthen Payment Certainty

Strategy established a $2.25 billion USD cash reserve in Q4 2025 specifically to address dividend reliability concerns.

CFO Andrew Kang noted this reserve provides 30 months of coverage without requiring any Bitcoin sales. The cash buffer insulates dividend payments from short-term Bitcoin price volatility and market downturns.

Michael Saylor’s post on X highlighted the multi-layered approach to dividend security that Strategy has implemented.

The company designed this structure to weather extended bear markets while maintaining shareholder distributions. The combination of cash reserves and Bitcoin holdings creates redundant payment mechanisms across different time horizons.

The dividend adjustment framework recently shifted to monthly volume-weighted average price calculations instead of five-day periods.

This change addresses trading patterns around record dates and payment dates. Strategy’s Stretch digital credit product trades near its $100 stated amount with an 11.25% annualized dividend rate.

Bitcoin Holdings Position Company for Long-Term Execution

Strategy held 713,502 Bitcoin as of February 1, 2026, with total acquisition costs reaching $54.26 billion. The average purchase price stands at $76,052 per coin, representing roughly 3.4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

The company maintains its position as the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder despite recent price declines.

The company achieved a 22.8% BTC yield for 2025, exceeding the lower end of its target range. This metric measures the percentage increase in Bitcoin per share, demonstrating acquisition rates faster than shareholder dilution. The strategy’s accumulation strategy continues regardless of short-term price movements or accounting losses.

The Q4 2025 net loss of $12.6 billion stemmed primarily from mark-to-market accounting on Bitcoin holdings. Operating losses reached $17.4 billion, while earnings per share came in at negative $42.93 versus forecasts of positive $2.97. However, the software business generated $123 million in revenue, exceeding expectations by 3.53%.

Market Volatility Tests Dividend Thesis Amid Capital Raising Success

Strategy’s stock closed at $119.74 in aftermarket trading, down 17.12% following the earnings announcement on February 6, 2026.

Bitcoin’s simultaneous decline to $63,596.56 intensified selling pressure across cryptocurrency-related equities. The company’s Bitcoin holdings fell below their cumulative cost basis for the first time since 2023.

Saylor appeared undaunted during the conference call, emphasizing that the company’s Bitcoin treasury strategy was built to withstand volatility.

He noted that Bitcoin’s 45% drawdown from its all-time high four months earlier was consistent with the asset’s 45% volatility profile. This perspective frames current losses as expected fluctuations rather than fundamental flaws.

Strategy raised $25.3 billion in capital during 2025, becoming the largest U.S. equity issuer for two consecutive years. The company raised an additional $3.9 billion in January 2026 and acquired 41,002 Bitcoin during challenging conditions.

Strategy operates with 13% leverage compared to 23% for investment-grade companies, with convertible debt carrying a 42 basis point average interest rate.

The post Michael Saylor Reveals Strategy Can Pay Dividends ‘Forever’ With 1.25% Bitcoin Growth appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

Bitso reduces cross-border transfer times from multiple days to near-instant using blockchain technology 

RLUSD provides regulated dollar-denominated stability for volatile Latin American payment corridors 

Platform positions as U.S.-LATAM payout partner as demand for compliant stablecoin solutions expands 

Ripple Payments eliminates multi-hop banking processes, reducing costs and increasing transparency

 

Bitso accelerates cross-border payments through its deployment of Ripple Payments, XRP and RLUSD across Latin American markets.

The digital asset platform reduces international transfer times from days to near-instant settlement for business clients.

Traditional banking systems previously required multiple intermediaries and extended processing periods. Bitso now delivers faster money movement by leveraging blockchain rails and regulated stablecoin infrastructure for regional payment corridors.

Speed Improvements Replace Multi-Day Settlement Processes

Bitso has transformed its platform to prioritize transaction velocity for cross-border transfers. The company shifted from crypto exchange operations to B2B payment infrastructure.

Legacy payment systems in Latin America typically process international transfers through several correspondent banks. Each intermediary adds processing time and reduces transparency throughout the settlement chain.

Ripple Payments enables Bitso to bypass traditional multi-hop routing entirely. Blockchain technology settles transactions in minutes rather than the standard two-to-five business days.

XRP serves as a bridge currency to accelerate conversions between different fiat denominations. RLUSD provides dollar-denominated stability without requiring traditional banking infrastructure.

The acceleration benefits both remittance flows and commercial payment operations. Businesses previously waited days to receive international payments from partners or customers.

Bitso now completes these same transfers within minutes using distributed ledger technology. Recipients access funds almost immediately after transaction initiation.

Gabriele Zuliani, Head of Growth at Bitso, spoke about the transformation this technology brings. “RLUSD and Ripple Payments let us reinvent how money moves globally: faster, at lower cost, and with far greater transparency,” Zuliani said.

He added that as demand grows in the U.S., Bitso stands ready to serve that demand. The platform aims to become the rail and payout partner for LATAM.

Rapid Blockchain Settlement Powers Regional Payment Distribution

The acceleration strategy addresses specific pain points within Latin American financial markets. Local currency volatility creates urgency around fast, stable settlement options.

Businesses cannot afford to wait days while exchange rates fluctuate during transfer processing. RLUSD enables rapid conversion to dollar-denominated value.

Bitso positions itself as a payout partner capable of distributing funds throughout the region quickly. The platform maintains local market presence across multiple Latin American countries.

This regional footprint combines with blockchain speed to deliver comprehensive payment solutions. Companies can now send payments that reach recipients the same day.

Regulated stablecoin infrastructure supports the acceleration without sacrificing compliance requirements. RLUSD operates within established financial oversight frameworks while maintaining transaction speed.

Traditional compliance processes often slow down international transfers through extended verification periods. Bitso balances regulatory adherence with operational efficiency.

Growing demand from U.S. businesses requires scalable, rapid payment infrastructure for Latin American operations.

Bitso’s blockchain-based approach handles increasing transaction volumes without proportional slowdowns. As cross-border payment needs expand, the platform scales its acceleration capabilities accordingly.

The combination of Ripple Payments, XRP and RLUSD creates infrastructure for next-generation regional money movement.

The post Bitso Deploys Ripple Payments and RLUSD to Speed Up Latin American Transfers appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

ASTER holds above $0.45–$0.50, forming a controlled accumulation zone in the descending channel. 

Liquidity sweeps below support indicate seller exhaustion, not renewed bearish pressure. 

Price compression signals a potential high-volatility breakout phase in the near term. 

Market cap rebound shows capital rotation, suggesting renewed confidence and participant engagement.

 

 ASTER is holding above the $0.45–$0.50 accumulation zone, showing structured buying within its long-term descending channel. Bulls could be positioning for a potential breakout.

ASTER is trading at $0.6069 as of writing, after a 12.81% gain in 24 hours and an 8.34% rise over the past week.

Price Structure Signals Stabilization Within a Bearish Framework

The ASTER daily chart remains anchored to a long-standing descending channel that has guided price action since the cycle high.

Each historical rally has stalled at channel resistance, confirming persistent seller control and the broader bearish trend.

Recent price action, however, introduces a shift in behavior. ASTER swept liquidity below the lower channel boundary, briefly trading into the $0.45–$0.48 region. 

$ASTER Recovered Quickly but not out of Woods yet..

I’ve been accumulating since December..

This is my biggest bag of the cycle.

Patience will pay off.. #Crypto #ASTER #ASTERUSDT pic.twitter.com/eGoUA7CXGa

— Captain Faibik (@CryptoFaibik) February 8, 2026

The move produced a downside wick and was followed by a swift return inside the channel. This sequence carries technical importance. 

Liquidity sweeps below established support often reflect seller exhaustion rather than trend continuation. The absence of follow-through selling reframes the move as a deviation instead of a breakdown.

Although ASTER continues to print lower highs, the slope of decline has moderated. Price is now spending more time in the upper half of the channel instead of reverting quickly to the lows. That change suggests dip-buying behavior is replacing reactive selling.

This pattern often emerges when positioning shifts from distribution toward longer-term accumulation. From a structural perspective, the market now sits at a decision point. 

A confirmed daily close above channel resistance would invalidate the prevailing bearish structure. Until then, the trend remains intact, though increasingly fragile.

Accumulation and Market Cap Recovery Reinforce the Setup

The $0.40–$0.50 zone remains central to ASTER price analysis. Price spent weeks consolidating and forming repeated wicks below support, causing a steady decline. 

During this phase, price action discouraged momentum traders while allowing larger participants to build positions quietly. The result was a stable base rather than a sharp reversal, which often leads to more sustainable advances.

$ASTER – Long Term Accumulation Setup (2600% Potential)#ASTER Is Now Trading ~80% Below Its ATH. This Could Be A Strong Discount Zone For Long-Term Holders.

ATH: $2.43
Current Price: ~$0.50

My Accumulation Zone: $0.35 – $0.50 (Slow And Steady Accumulation. Not Buying All At… pic.twitter.com/dd2j39p5pF

— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) February 5, 2026

From that foundation, ASTER has moved approximately 40% higher. The advance has remained orderly, with higher participation in green candles. Volume trends suggest engagement beyond short-covering activity.

Over the past seven days, ASTER’s valuation initially ranged between $1.30 and $1.35 billion. This sideways movement reflected short-term uncertainty rather than directional conviction.

A sudden mid-week drop toward $1.15 billion followed. The decline was fast and brief, resembling a liquidity flush. Importantly, valuation did not stagnate near the lows.

As valuation pushed toward $1.48–$1.50 billion, the structure shifted again. The market did not merely recover losses but expanded beyond previous resistance, signaling net inflows.

ASTER price analysis now reflects convergence between price structure and valuation behavior. Both suggest accumulation remains active while risk is clearly defined. 

The next series of daily closes will determine whether consolidation resolves into continuation or renewed downside pressure.

The post ASTER Price Analysis: $0.45–$0.50 Accumulation Signals Potential Breakout appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

ETH failed three times at the 200-day EMA, confirming weakening momentum and sustained selling pressure. 

Over $1.3B in long liquidations shows derivatives activity dominated price action, not spot demand. 

The $2.7K level flipped from support to resistance, redefining near-term market structure. 

Focus now shifts to $2.3K and $1.8K as the next zones of potential buyer interest.

 

ETH 200-day EMA rejection shows repeated failures near resistance aligned with a wave of forced liquidations. Price action now reflects leverage-driven volatility instead of organic trend recovery.

Distribution Behavior Emerges at Key Technical Resistance

ETH price moved higher, yet the advance lacked sustained demand. Instead, it appeared driven by short covering into a known supply zone.

Momentum weakened with every approach to the moving average. Candle bodies narrowed, and upper wicks became more frequent. At the same time, volume failed to expand. 

Furthermore, the repeated rejection pattern reinforced technical exhaustion. Three attempts at the same resistance level produced lower follow-through each time. This suggested that sellers maintained control despite temporary upside pressure.

On social media, several analysts shared charts showing price stalling exactly at the 200-day EMA. Therefore, upside strength functioned mainly as liquidity for larger participants.

If you’re buying every $ETH pump into $2.7K after this 200day EMA rejection, you’re exit liquidity.

You can ignore 1 rejection at the 200-day EMA, but you can’t ignore 3.

That $ETH 200-day EMA was the big make or break level, and we just got a clean rejection off it (red… https://t.co/hnTVoMBAq7 pic.twitter.com/otk7f6dUFL

— Dami-Defi (@DamiDefi) February 8, 2026

Soon after, ETH slipped back below $2.7K. That level had served as short-term support during the rebound phase. Once breached, it transitioned into resistance, and market bias tilted downward.

This pivot divided two narratives. Above $2.7K, traders could argue for base formation. Below it, the structure favored continued probing lower. As a result, each rally into that zone now attracts selling interest.

Moreover, price behavior showed hesitation rather than conviction. Buyers failed to defend higher levels with sustained closes. Sellers, in contrast, reacted quickly at technical boundaries.

Thus, the pattern reflected strategic positioning rather than emotional panic. Distribution unfolded gradually, supported by visible rejection zones and fading momentum. The chart no longer communicated recovery. Instead, it communicated controlled exits into strength.

Liquidation Cascades Replace Organic Market Flow

ETH 200-day EMA rejection coincided with violent intraday swings driven by derivatives activity. Price repeatedly moved from $80 to $100 within minutes. Such behavior is not typical of spot-led markets.

Approximately $1.3 billion in long liquidations occurred during the session. These events represented forced closures of leveraged positions, not discretionary selling. Therefore, the tape reflected margin mechanics rather than investor sentiment.

As the price crossed clustered liquidation levels, automated orders accelerated the decline. Each wave triggered the next. Consequently, volatility expanded in both directions.

Total liquidations surpassed $7 billion across the broader market. This scale revealed how one-sided positioning had become before the breakdown. When exposure concentrates, even small price shifts can ignite chain reactions.

MULTI-BILLION CRIME JUST HAPPENED ON BINANCE!!

THE $ETH/USDT PAIR HAD EXTREMELY HIGH VOLATILITY.
IN JUST SECONDS, $ETH PUMPED AND DUMPED FOR $100 AT LEAST 40 TIMES.

SOMEONE OPENED A $1.3 BILLION LONG AND GOT FULLY LIQUIDATED.

IT LOOKS LIKE $ETH WAS PUSHED SPECIFICALLY TO… pic.twitter.com/s5vqSyWN6v

— Wimar.X (@DefiWimar) February 7, 2026

Meanwhile, ETH failed to stabilize above reclaimed levels. The $2.7K zone remained overhead resistance. This reinforced the idea that rebounds were corrective, not impulsive.

Attention has now shifted to the $2.3K region. That area previously hosted strong demand. If the price reaches it, buyers may attempt to stabilize conditions. However, failure there would expose the $1.8K support band.

Traders continue to frame current rallies as liquidity events. Strength is treated cautiously, while resistance zones receive priority.

The post Ethereum Faces 200-Day EMA Rejection Amid $7B Liquidation Cascade appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

Forward Industries holds nearly 7 million SOL tokens, more than its next three competitors combined. 

FWDI’s average SOL acquisition cost of $232 creates $1 billion unrealized loss at current $85 price. 

The company’s debt-free balance sheet enables offensive consolidation while rivals face selling pressure. 

Forward raised $1.65 billion in 2025 from Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital backing.

 

Forward Industries controls nearly 7 million SOL tokens as the largest publicly traded Solana treasury company. The firm’s holdings face substantial unrealized losses amid current market conditions.

Unlevered Balance Sheet Provides Strategic Advantage

FWDI purchased its SOL holdings at an average price of $232 per token. Current valuations place SOL near $85, creating a paper loss approaching $1 billion. The company’s share price has declined from $40 to approximately $5.

Chief Investment Officer Ryan Navi maintains the firm can consolidate weaker competitors during this downturn. “Scale plus an unlevered balance sheet is a real advantage in this market,” Navi told CoinDesk. “We can play offense when others are playing defense,” he added.

Forward Industries operates without corporate debt or leverage on its balance sheet. “Forward Industries has strategically avoided leverage and debt by design,” Navi explained. This structure provides flexibility to deploy capital when market opportunities emerge.

The firm raised $1.65 billion through a private investment in public equity during 2025. Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto and Multicoin Capital led the funding round. Forward Industries now holds more SOL than its next three public competitors combined.

Staking Strategy and Permanent Capital Model

Forward Industries stakes its SOL holdings to generate yields between 6% and 7%. The staking rate will decrease over time as Solana’s programmed issuance declines. This creates an increasingly disinflationary supply environment for the network.

The company partnered with Sanctum to launch fwdSOL, a liquid staking token. This instrument earns staking rewards while functioning as collateral in decentralized finance protocols. Forward can borrow against this collateral at rates below the staking yield on platforms like Kamino.

Navi positions Forward Industries as a permanent capital vehicle rather than a short-term trading operation. “We’re not running a trading book, we’re building a long-term Solana treasury,” Navi stated. The company plans to underwrite real-world assets and tokenized royalties that exceed its cost of capital.

Kyle Samani announced his departure as managing director of Multicoin Capital on Wednesday. He retains his position as chairman of Forward Industries. Samani is receiving his exit from the Multicoin Master Fund in FWDI shares and warrants instead of cash redemption.

“What differentiates Forward is discipline: no leverage, no debt,” Navi said. The firm maintains a long-term view on Solana as strategic infrastructure rather than a speculative bet. Management believes its debt-free structure positions it to lead sector consolidation during this challenging period.

The post Forward Industries Maintains $600M Solana Position Despite $1B Unrealized Loss appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

Tether assisted Turkish authorities in freezing $544 million in crypto linked to betting schemes. 

Stablecoin issuer has supported over 1,800 law enforcement cases across 62 countries worldwide. 

Tether has frozen a total of $3.4 billion in illicit USDT through global cooperation efforts. 

Turkish probe targets Darkex platform owner accused of providing crypto infrastructure for betting.

 

Tether assisted Turkish authorities in freezing approximately $544 million in cryptocurrency assets tied to illegal betting operati

The stablecoin issuer acted on requests from law enforcement investigating money laundering schemes. 

The frozen funds represent one of Turkey’s largest crypto-related seizures to date. Tether simultaneously disclosed its involvement in over 1,800 cases across 62 countries. 

The company has frozen a total of $3.4 billion in illicit USDT through global law enforcement collaborations.

Tether’s Expanding Role in Global Law Enforcement

Tether’s cooperation with Turkish officials highlights the company’s growing partnership with international authorities. 

The stablecoin issuer provided technical assistance to freeze wallets connected to unauthorized betting platforms. 

This intervention prevented suspects from moving potentially laundered cryptocurrency to other addresses. 

The action demonstrates how blockchain transparency enables rapid response to criminal investigations.

Tether assisted Turkish authorities in freezing $544m (approx. €460m) in crypto assets linked to illegal betting as part of a money laundering investigation. Additionally, Tether revealed it has aided law enforcement in >1,800 cases across 62 countries, freezing a total of $3.4b…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 7, 2026

The $544 million seizure in Turkey forms part of a broader enforcement pattern. Tether has developed protocols for responding to legitimate law enforcement requests worldwide. 

These procedures allow authorities to immobilize USDT holdings linked to suspected criminal activity. The company maintains compliance teams dedicated to processing such requests efficiently.

Across 62 countries, Tether has supported more than 1,800 criminal investigations. The cases span various categories including fraud, money laundering, and illicit marketplace operations. 

The $3.4 billion in frozen USDT reflects the scale of detected criminal activity. This figure represents cumulative freezes executed over multiple years of cooperation.

The stablecoin issuer’s transparency measures contrast with criticisms often directed at cryptocurrency platforms. 

By maintaining the ability to freeze addresses, Tether provides law enforcement with tools unavailable in truly decentralized systems. 

This capability has made USDT a cooperative asset in criminal investigations. Authorities can trace and halt illicit fund movements more effectively than with privacy-focused cryptocurrencies.

Turkish Investigation Targets Crypto-Enabled Betting Networks

The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office identified the frozen assets as belonging to illegal betting operations. Authorities targeted Seref Yazici, owner of the Dubai-based Darkex cryptocurrency platform. 

The exchange operated in Turkey without licensing from the Capital Markets Board. Turkish regulators blocked access to Darkex in September 2025.

MASAK, Turkey’s Financial Crimes Investigation Board, accused Yazici of facilitating unlawful betting through crypto infrastructure. 

The platform allegedly processed transactions for unauthorized gambling websites operating across Turkey. 

Authorities seized real estate, corporate shares, banking accounts, and cryptocurrency holdings. This comprehensive freeze aims to prevent the laundering of criminally obtained proceeds.

The case follows another major Turkish seizure announced last week. Officials confiscated $550 million in cryptocurrency linked to fugitive Veysel Sahin. 

Sahin faces an Interpol Red Notice for operating illegal betting platforms and money laundering. Extradition proceedings remain ongoing.

Tether’s assistance in both Turkish cases demonstrates the company’s responsiveness to regional enforcement efforts. The combined seizures exceed $1 billion in cryptocurrency value. 

Turkish authorities continue investigating additional platforms suspected of providing services to unlicensed betting operations. 

The crackdown reflects stricter oversight of cryptocurrency exchanges serving Turkish users without proper authorization.

The post Tether Assists Turkey in $544 Million Crypto Seizure, Reveals $3.4B Global Enforcement Record appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

Wintermute CEO says no credible sources confirm circulating crypto liquidation rumors

Modern perpetual futures markets offer transparency unlike previous cycle’s lending platforms

Digital asset desks buying Bitcoin above $100K face mounting pressure from current prices

Legal penalties in major jurisdictions deter false bankruptcy claims from struggling firms

 

Wintermute CEO Evgeny Gaevoy publicly challenged spreading rumors about major crypto firm liquidations following recent market volatility. 

He expressed skepticism about immediate spillover effects despite speculation linking an Asian trading firm to Bitcoin ETF sales. The executive noted that credible industry insiders have not confirmed any blowup stories circulating on social media. 

Current rumors originate from unverified accounts rather than trusted sources with direct knowledge.

Market Structure Changes Reduce Contagion Risk

Gaevoy outlined how crypto leverage shifted fundamentally since the previous cycle’s catastrophic failures. 

Continue to be pretty skeptical about “somebody blew up” rumors or at least skeptical about mid/long term impact of it. Maybe somebody blew up but there are simply no spillover effects for us to care

When 3AC blew up post terra everyone knew fairly soon because it spread via…

— wishful_cynic (@EvgenyGaevoy) February 7, 2026

Uncollateralized lending platforms like Genesis and Celsius facilitated opaque borrowing arrangements that collapsed spectacularly. Those entities operated without transparency and created systemic risks across the industry. 

Modern leverage concentrates in perpetual futures markets with visible risk management and automated liquidation systems.

The Wintermute executive contrasted current speculation with past blowup events that followed clear patterns. Three Arrows Capital’s collapse spread through private messages within two to three days after Terra’s implosion. 

FTX troubles became obvious when Binance bailout discussions leaked to the public. Major solvency crises don’t remain hidden long when real contagion exists.

Exchange risk controls improved dramatically after expensive lessons from Three Arrows Capital. 

Deribit was the only exchange that lost money on that default due to special credit lines. No major platforms show appetite for similar unsecured arrangements anymore. 

Auto-deleveraging mechanisms now prevent customer liquidations from damaging exchange balance sheets.

Gaevoy dismissed concerns about exchanges themselves failing through FTX-style misuse of customer funds. The practice of investing user deposits into illiquid assets appears abandoned industry-wide. 

Exchanges also became better at detecting hacks even when firms attempt concealment. Legal consequences for false bankruptcy denials create real deterrents in major jurisdictions like Europe, the US, UK and Singapore.

Overleveraged Peak Buyers Still Face Reckoning

Despite short-term skepticism, Gaevoy acknowledged that market consequences from peak mania buying remain inevitable. 

Digital asset trading desks purchased heavily at levels now deeply underwater. Some firms acquired Solana above $225, Ethereum above $4000 and Bitcoin above $100000. Those positions face severe pressure given current prices.

Wintermute CEO seems to think otherwise.

Regardless of what happened in the last 72 hours, there will be news which drops in the coming months about the affected entities from this vicious drop.

Why? People do dumb shit in peak bull mania. They always do. Last time we had FTX,… https://t.co/VstYl9Tm03 pic.twitter.com/R14IF4Ckp2

— Andy (@andyyy) February 8, 2026

The October 10th crash damaged the altcoin market in ways still not fully understood. Smaller trading desks focused on speculative tokens likely carry even worse exposure. 

Historical patterns show that reckless behavior during bull markets creates delayed problems. The executive warned that affected entities may not surface for months as positions unwind gradually.

Social media speculation linked recent volatility to an Asian firm liquidating Bitcoin through IBIT ETFs after precious metals margin calls. 

Gaevoy’s comments suggest such rumors lack substance currently. However, his acknowledgment that overleveraged players will eventually face consequences indicates patience may reveal the damage

[contact-form] [contact-form]

Table of Contents

Toggle

TLDR:

Market Structure Changes Reduce Contagion Risk

Overleveraged Peak Buyers Still Face Reckoning

Table of Contents

Toggle

TLDR:

Market Structure Changes Reduce Contagion Risk

Overleveraged Peak Buyers Still Face Reckoning

.

The post Wintermute CEO Dismisses Crypto Blowup Rumors As Market Seeks Clarity appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR: 

Nasdaq filing raises limits for FBTC, ARKB, HODL to match IBIT’s existing 250k position threshold

IBIT maintains standard 250k limit under Option 9 rules, separate from January regulatory changes

BlackRock filed in November to increase IBIT limit to 1 million contracts, pending regulatory approval

Market analyst warns against AI-generated misinformation about crypto ETF regulatory developments

 

Rumors claiming Nasdaq eliminated position limits for iShares Bitcoin Trust options have been debunked by market analyst Jeff Park. The confusion stems from a January SEC filing that adjusted restrictions on several crypto ETFs. 

Park clarified that the regulatory change does not grant unlimited leverage to Wall Street traders. Instead, the filing addresses position limits for other Bitcoin ETF products.

Regulatory Filing Targets Secondary Bitcoin ETFs

The SEC document in question raises position limits for FBTC, ARKB, HODL, and Ethereum ETFs from 25,000 to standard thresholds. IBIT already operates under the 250,000 position limit established in Nasdaq’s Option 9 rules. 

BlackRock’s IBIT and Bitwise’s BITB have maintained this higher limit since their options launched. The January filing aims to level competitive conditions across Bitcoin ETF issuers.

Park highlighted that the regulatory change removes previous restrictions that penalized crypto assets with non-standard limits. The filing explicitly references exchange requirements preventing unfair discrimination between customers and issuers. 

This adjustment brings smaller Bitcoin ETF products in line with established position limit frameworks. Market participants can verify current limits through the Options Clearing Corporation database.

some misinformation that is going around that i wanted to address quickly-

there's been a rumor that Nasdaq has removed the option position limit for IBIT and therefore gives wall street unlimited leverage, and that the timing of this change is suspect because it was in january,… pic.twitter.com/osFPXPXaeA

— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 7, 2026

IBIT Seeks Higher Position Limit Through Separate Process

A November 2024 filing reveals BlackRock’s attempt to increase IBIT’s position limit from 250,000 to one million contracts. This request remains pending with federal regulators as of February 2026. 

The proposed expansion would represent a fourfold increase in maximum allowable positions. Park emphasized this separate filing as the actual development worth monitoring for potential leverage changes.

The analyst cautioned against relying solely on AI chatbots for verifying market information. He noted instances where automated tools provided incorrect statements about the regulatory changes. 

Independent verification through official sources like the OCC database provides accurate position limit data. Park encouraged market participants to maintain due diligence when evaluating claims about regulatory developments.

The confusion highlights ongoing scrutiny of Bitcoin ETF derivatives markets. Position limits serve as risk management tools preventing excessive concentration in options contracts. 

Regulatory adjustments to these limits reflect evolving approaches to crypto asset integration in traditional finance. The standardization process continues as more Bitcoin ETF products enter the derivatives market.

The post IBIT Position Limits Stay Put as Nasdaq Levels Bitcoin ETF Playing Field appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

Li Lin confirmed no BTC or ETH sales from Avenir Group during market crash period

Trend Research sold 658,168 ETH worth $1.35B at $2,058 average versus $3,104 cost

Total losses reached $688M, erasing prior $315M gains for $373M net deficit

Ethereum held above $2,000 after eight-day liquidation concluded on exchanges

 

The founder of Huobi and Avenir Group has publicly rejected claims linking him to a major Ethereum liquidation event. 

Li Lin stated he maintained his Bitcoin and ETH positions during the recent downturn. His denial comes as speculation swirled about a Hong Kong fund triggering the market crash.

Major Institutional Player Distances from Liquidation Event

Li Lin oversees Avenir Group, Asia’s largest institutional Bitcoin ETF holder. 

The executive denied any investment ties to Trend Research or an entity called Garrett. His statement aimed to counter narratives suggesting his firm played a role in the selloff.

Huobi and Avenir Group founder Li Lin have denied rumors that they are investors in Trend Research or Garrett, and stated that they did not reduce their BTC or ETH holdings during this market downturn. Avenir is the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin ETF in Asia. Earlier… pic.twitter.com/8U881BLtTF

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 8, 2026

Market participants had pointed fingers at Asian institutions during the price drop. Bitcoin fell below key support levels as Ethereum struggled to hold above $2,000. The rumors intensified as liquidations mounted across centralized and decentralized platforms.

Wu Blockchain reported Li Lin’s position remained unchanged throughout the volatility. 

Avenir Group’s Bitcoin ETF holdings stayed intact despite market pressure. The clarification sought to separate his operations from the unfolding liquidation crisis.

On-Chain Analysis Reveals Catastrophic Trading Loss

Data from ai_9684xtpa showed Trend Research liquidated its entire Ethereum position. The entity moved 658,168 ETH to exchanges over an eight-day period. The total value reached $1.354 billion at execution prices.

结束了，易老板终于清仓了
连最后 0.148 $ETH 都充进了交易所

︎ 8 天砸掉 658168.58 ETH，价值 13.54 亿美元
︎ 成本价 ~$3,104.36，卖出价 $2058.05，本轮共计亏损 6.88 亿美元
︎ 上一轮盈利的 3.15 亿美元已全部回吐，倒亏 3.73 亿美元

有趣的是：从巨量抛售的 02.06 下午起，ETH… https://t.co/ej7Nb0CgGi pic.twitter.com/d5XcIU0mY8

— Ai 姨 (@ai_9684xtpa) February 8, 2026

Trend Research bought Ethereum at an average cost of $3,104 per token. The selling occurred at roughly $2,058 per coin. This price difference generated losses exceeding $688 million on the trades.

The entity had previously secured profits of around $315 million from earlier positions. Those gains evaporated completely in the recent drawdown. Net losses now stand at approximately $373 million according to blockchain records.

The final transfer involved just 0.148 ETH moved to Binance. This small amount marked the complete exit from what was once a substantial holding. The selloff began on February 6 and concluded within days.

Ethereum prices stopped declining shortly after the massive selling commenced. The token stabilized above the $2,000 threshold despite continued pressure. Market observers noted the timing between the liquidation and price floor formation.

The event highlighted risks associated with leveraged DeFi strategies. Trend Research had reportedly deployed a looped position strategy worth over $2 billion. Market-wide liquidations surpassed $1 billion during the same window.

The post Huobi’s Li Lin Denies Trend Research Links as $373M ETH Loss Shakes Market appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

The CFTC update formally includes national trust banks as approved issuers of payment stablecoins for derivatives margin use.

Staff Letter 25-40 still requires full reserve backing and strict redemption rules for qualifying payment stablecoins.

The guidance aligns federal trust banks with existing state-regulated stablecoin issuers like Circle and Paxos.

Combined with the GENIUS Act, the rule signals tighter integration of stablecoins into U.S. financial markets.

 

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has expanded its regulatory guidance on payment stablecoins used in derivatives markets. The change allows national trust banks to qualify as approved issuers under an existing no-action framework. 

The update removes a key limitation that had excluded federally chartered trust institutions. It signals deeper integration of stablecoins into regulated financial infrastructure.

CFTC Updates Definition of Payment Stablecoins

The CFTC’s Market Participants Division reissued Staff Letter 25-40 with a revised definition of payment stablecoins. The clarification confirms that national trust banks qualify as permitted issuers.

The original letter, released in December 2025, granted no-action relief to futures commission merchants. It allowed them to accept qualifying payment stablecoins as customer margin collateral.

The guidance also permits firms to hold proprietary stablecoins in segregated customer accounts. These holdings count toward regulatory calculations under strict risk controls.

According to a CFTC press release, staff later realized the original wording unintentionally excluded national trust banks. The revision corrects that oversight and aligns them with state-regulated issuers such as Circle and Paxos.

The framework requires stablecoins to maintain full reserve backing and clear redemption rights. It also mandates operational safeguards and compliance with existing risk management standards.

Social commentary from crypto analysts described the update as a major step for stablecoin adoption in regulated derivatives trading. The reaction focused on its impact on market structure rather than token prices.

GENIUS Act and FDIC Framework Shape Stablecoin Policy

The revised CFTC guidance builds on the GENIUS Act signed into law in July 2025. The legislation created the first federal framework for payment stablecoins used in payments and transfers.

The law introduced reserve requirements and defined oversight roles for both bank and nonbank issuers. It also opened formal pathways for national institutions to participate in stablecoin issuance.

In December 2025, the FDIC proposed a separate rule for banks to issue stablecoins through subsidiaries. That proposal requires supervisory approval and safety and soundness reviews.

The FDIC recently extended its public comment period, according to regulatory notices cited in February 2026 updates. The proposal remains under consideration and has not yet taken effect.

Together, the CFTC and FDIC actions point to a coordinated regulatory direction. Stablecoins now sit closer to traditional banking and derivatives infrastructure.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig noted that national trust banks have played a role in custody and issuance since their creation under earlier OCC charters. The updated letter reflects their continued position in the payment stablecoin ecosystem.

The move narrows regulatory gaps between state and federally chartered issuers. It also reinforces the U.S. strategy to formalize digital asset markets under post-GENIUS Act policy.

The post Stablecoins Gain Federal Backing as CFTC Expands Issuer List appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

Bitcoin shows strong correlation with equities, placing short-term price action under macro and liquidity influence.

Short-term holders sent over 94,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss, marking the largest capitulation of this correction.

Options data shows negative gamma exposure, increasing the chance of sharp moves around key expiration dates.

Long-term power-law valuation signals Bitcoin trades over 40% below trend despite ongoing macro pressure.

 

Bitcoin traded in volatile ranges as macro pressure and investor panic shaped near-term price action. Data showed heavy selling from short-term holders as the asset slipped below key technical levels. 

At the same time, long-term valuation models signaled a widening gap between price and trend value. The divergence revealed a market pulled between liquidity stress and structural repricing forces.

Bitcoin Price Mispricing Tied to Macro Correlation and Options Structure

Bitcoin moved in step with U.S. equities during the latest pullback. Thirty-day correlations showed strong alignment with Nasdaq, S&P 500, and high-yield bonds.

Recency-weighted data confirmed the link with risk assets remained elevated. This pattern placed short-term direction under macro and liquidity influence rather than narrative-driven trading.

Lead and lag signals showed equities and credit markets moving before Bitcoin. According to figures shared by David (@david_eng_mba), the Nasdaq led Bitcoin by about four days, while the dollar index led by roughly ten days.

$54K BTC Mispricing: Choppy Short-Term (Tied to Nasdaq), Bullish Long-Term

Bitcoin runs on two clocks: power law reversion and fast macro/liquidity moves.

Short-term macro clock:
BTC is tightly linked to risk assets right now.

30d correlation: Nasdaq +0.731, S&P +0.727, HYG… pic.twitter.com/0OkQBuYjHY

— David (@david_eng_mba) February 7, 2026

Options market positioning reinforced near-term uncertainty. Spot price hovered near the gamma flip zone, with resistance clustered near $70,000 and risk concentrated below that level.

Net gamma exposure remained negative, pointing to unstable price behavior. A squeeze score above the midpoint suggested sensitivity to sharp intraday moves.

Upcoming expiries added another layer of pressure. More than 15% of total gamma was set to roll off on February 13, with larger portions expiring later in February and March.

These expiries increased the probability of breakouts once hedging pressure faded. Until then, price action stayed confined between heavy put and call walls.

Short-Term Holder Capitulation Highlights Bitcoin Price Mispricing Gap

On-chain data showed panic-driven transfers from short-term holders. Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) reported daily average flows of over 94,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss.

Yesterday marked the largest panic driven move by short term holders since the start of this correction.

On a daily average basis, STHs sent more than 94,000 BTC, about $6B, to exchanges at a loss while Bitcoin dropped below $65,000.

When short term holders move BTC to… pic.twitter.com/cRmq2YlUpq

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) February 7, 2026

The transfers occurred as Bitcoin dropped below $65,000. Exchange inflows from short-term holders often indicate intent to sell rather than reposition.

This behavior marked the largest capitulation event of the correction cycle. It reflected emotional reactions during rapid downside moves.

While near-term selling intensified, long-term valuation metrics pointed elsewhere. Power-law trend models placed fair value above $120,000.

The gap between market price and model value exceeded 40%. A negative Z-score signaled an oversold condition relative to historical norms.

Mean-reversion timelines projected gradual recovery over several months. These projections extended into mid and late 2026 based on trend reversion math.

Short-term volatility and long-term valuation now diverged sharply. Macro weakness dictated immediate price movement, while structural models framed a different trajectory.

The post Short-Term Capitulation Hits as Bitcoin Diverges From Long-Term Value appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

MicroStrategy holds $49.4B in Bitcoin against only $8.2B debt, maintaining a six-to-one coverage ratio 

Company maintains $2.25B cash reserves covering 2.5 years of dividend payments without Bitcoin sales 

Earliest debt maturity arrives in September 2028, allowing time for potential Bitcoin cycle recovery 

Company held through 16-month downturn in 2022 when Bitcoin fell 50% below average purchase price

 

MicroStrategy bankruptcy concerns have dominated crypto discussions as Bitcoin prices fluctuate. However, recent analysis of the company’s financial structure reveals a different picture than the prevailing narrative suggests.

The business intelligence firm holds Bitcoin reserves worth approximately $49.4 billion against total debt of $8.2 billion. This substantial asset-to-liability ratio contradicts widespread predictions of imminent financial collapse.

Meanwhile, cash reserves and extended debt maturity timelines provide additional protection against short-term market volatility.

Financial Structure Provides Multiple Layers of Protection

The asset coverage ratio stands at roughly six-to-one, with Bitcoin holdings far exceeding debt obligations. Crypto analyst Crypto Rover addressed the bankruptcy narrative directly, stating “the reality is most people spreading this FUD do not understand how MicroStrategy’s balance sheet is structured.”

The analysis breaks down multiple protective layers within the company’s financial position. “At current levels, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings are worth roughly $49.4B, while total company debt is about $8.2B,” Crypto Rover noted. This means their Bitcoin reserve is almost six times larger than their debt obligations.

Beyond the Bitcoin reserve itself, MicroStrategy maintains USD cash reserves totaling around $2.25 billion. Regarding dividend concerns, Crypto Rover explained “the company has built a USD cash reserve of around $2.25B. That alone can cover dividend payments for 2.5 years without selling a single BTC.” Annual dividend obligations total approximately $890 million.

Debt maturity schedules further reduce near-term pressure on the company. “Strategy’s debt is not due immediately. The earliest maturity comes in September 2028,” according to the analysis.

Additional maturities follow in December 2029 and June 2032. This timeline aligns favorably with Bitcoin’s historical four-year market cycles, potentially allowing prices to recover before major debt obligations arrive.

Historical Performance Demonstrates Resilience Under Stress

MicroStrategy already survived a severe market test during 2022 and early 2023. Bitcoin prices fell nearly 50 percent below the company’s average purchase price of $30,000. The cryptocurrency remained at those depressed levels for approximately 16 months.

Crypto Rover highlighted the company’s response during that period: “Even then: They did not panic sell, They did not liquidate holdings, They held through the drawdown.” Only 200 Bitcoin were sold for tax loss harvesting purposes, and those coins were subsequently reacquired.

This real-world stress test validates the company’s commitment to its long-term strategy. “There is already a real historical stress test, and they held through it,” the analysis emphasized. The precedent demonstrates management’s willingness to weather extended market downturns.

Recent claims about exchange transfers have largely proven unfounded or misinterpreted. “There have been viral screenshots claiming MicroStrategy is moving BTC to exchanges. Most of these are either misinterpreted or fake,” Crypto Rover stated. No verified evidence supports accusations of distressed selling behavior.

The current fear narrative follows familiar patterns from previous market cycles. “Every cycle has a dominant fear narrative,” the analyst observed, comparing current concerns to past Tether collapse predictions that never materialized.

When examining actual financial data rather than speculation, the bankruptcy thesis lacks supporting evidence.

The post MicroStrategy Bankruptcy Claims Debunked: Financial Analysis Reveals Strong Position appeared first on Blockonomi.

Vietnam proposes 0.1% personal income tax on crypto transfers through licensed platforms nationwide (99 characters)

Vietnamese institutional investors will face 20% corporate income tax on crypto transfer profits (97 characters)

Five-year crypto pilot program launched September 2025, all transactions must use Vietnamese dong (99 characters)

Digital asset exchanges require VND10 trillion minimum capital, three times higher than banks (95 characters)

Vietnam’s Ministry of Finance has released a draft circular proposing a 0.1% personal income tax on crypto asset transfers through licensed platforms.

The tax framework mirrors the current securities trading regime and applies regardless of residency status. Vietnamese institutional investors will face a 20% corporate income tax on crypto transfer income.

The draft exempts crypto transactions from value-added tax while establishing clear tax obligations for market participants.

Tax Framework Mirrors Securities Treatment

The draft circular introduces a straightforward taxation approach for crypto asset transfers in Vietnam. Individual investors will pay 0.1% of transaction turnover per transfer when using platforms operated by licensed service providers. This rate matches the existing tax treatment for securities trading in the country.

The framework applies to all individual investors conducting crypto transfers through regulated channels. Residency status does not affect the tax obligation under the proposed rules.

Both Vietnamese residents and foreign individuals will face the same 0.1% rate on transaction turnover.

A draft released by Vietnam's Ministry of Finance proposes that individuals, regardless of residency, transferring crypto assets via licensed platforms may face a 0.1% personal income tax on transaction turnover, mirroring the current securities tax regime. The draft exempts…

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) February 7, 2026

The Ministry of Finance has exempted crypto asset transfers and trading from value-added tax requirements. This classification treats crypto activities as non-taxable for VAT purposes.

The exemption reduces the overall tax burden on crypto transactions compared to many traditional financial activities.

Corporate investors established in Vietnam face different tax obligations under the draft framework. These institutional investors will pay 20% corporate income tax on profits from crypto asset transfers. Taxable income is calculated as the selling price minus purchase costs and directly related expenses.

Pilot Program Sets High Entry Barriers

Vietnam officially launched a five-year pilot program for the crypto asset market in September 2025. The pilot phase requires all crypto activities to be conducted in Vietnamese dong.

Trading, issuance, and payments must use the national currency during this experimental period.

The pilot program encompasses multiple aspects of the crypto market ecosystem. Activities include the offering and issuance of crypto assets. The framework also covers the organization of trading markets and the provision of related services.

Regulatory authorities are implementing the pilot on a cautious and controlled basis. The approach prioritizes safety, transparency, and protection of participant rights. Both organizations and individuals engaged in the market receive safeguards under the framework.

The draft rules establish substantial capital requirements for digital asset exchanges. Enterprises must maintain a minimum charter capital of VND10 trillion, equivalent to $408 million.

This threshold stands three times higher than the requirements for commercial banks and 33 times that of aviation transport companies. Foreign investors can hold up to 49% equity in these exchanges under current proposals.

The Ministry of Finance has opened the draft circular for public consultation. Before this dedicated framework, crypto transfers were taxed using the same methods as securities transactions. The new rules aim to provide clarity and structure for Vietnam’s emerging crypto market.

The post Vietnam Proposes 0.1% Tax on Crypto Transfers in New Draft Framework appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

Sberbank completed its first crypto-backed loan to mining company Intelion Data in late 2025 as a pilot program. 

Russia’s central bank permits cryptocurrency trading but prohibits domestic payments, creating specific use cases. 

Western sanctions have accelerated cryptocurrency adoption in Russian foreign trade and corporate transactions. 

The central bank plans to finalize comprehensive crypto asset legislation by July 1, 2026, for the sector.

 

Sberbank, Russia’s largest lender, is preparing to expand crypto-backed lending services to corporate clients following strong market interest.

The bank completed a pilot transaction with mining company Intelion Data in late 2025. This development positions Sberbank alongside domestic competitor Sovkombank in offering cryptocurrency collateral financing.

The move reflects broader adoption of digital assets in Russia’s corporate sector amid ongoing economic pressures.

Pilot Program Marks Entry Into Digital Asset Lending

The state-controlled bank issued its first crypto-backed loan to Intelion Data, accepting mined cryptocurrency as collateral. Sberbank declined to reveal the transaction value but confirmed the pilot’s success.

The bank’s spokesperson told Reuters on Thursday that corporate demand has driven the expansion plans, citing “strong interest from corporate clients.” The institution now seeks cooperation with Russia’s central bank to develop proper regulatory frameworks.

Sovkombank previously pioneered this lending category among Russian financial institutions. However, Sberbank’s entry carries greater weight given its dominant market position.

The bank serves millions of corporate and retail customers across Russia. Its participation validates cryptocurrency’s growing role in mainstream Russian finance.

Sberbank aims to extend services beyond cryptocurrency miners to any corporation holding digital assets. This broader approach could unlock significant lending opportunities.

Many Russian companies have accumulated crypto holdings through various business operations. The bank’s willingness to accept these holdings as collateral provides new liquidity options.

Regulatory Environment Shapes Market Development

Russia’s central bank classifies cryptocurrencies as foreign exchange assets under current regulations. The regulator “permits their purchase and sale but prohibits domestic payments” using digital currencies.

This framework creates specific use cases while limiting others. The distinction allows Russians to hold crypto while preventing it from replacing the ruble.

The regulator plans to complete comprehensive crypto asset legislation by July 1, 2026. Sberbank expressed readiness to collaborate on developing these rules.

Proper regulation could accelerate institutional adoption across Russia’s banking sector. The July deadline suggests authorities recognize cryptocurrency’s economic importance.

Western sanctions have accelerated cryptocurrency adoption in Russian foreign trade and domestic business. Traditional global currency transactions face restrictions following military actions in Ukraine.

Digital assets offer alternative settlement mechanisms outside conventional banking channels. This practical necessity has transformed cryptocurrencies from speculative instruments to functional business tools.

International banks are exploring similar services despite different regulatory environments. JPMorgan is examining crypto-backed loan products for institutional clients.

Wells Fargo already offers such financing options. These parallel developments indicate global banking’s gradual embrace of cryptocurrency collateral. Sberbank’s initiative aligns Russia’s financial sector with international trends while addressing specific domestic needs.

The post Sberbank Launches Crypto-Backed Loans for Russian Corporations Amid Growing Digital Asset Demand appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

Solana rebounded 25% from $67.69 to $85, finding support at a critical January 2024 demand zone amid extreme fear. 

Record $6.371 billion USDT exchange inflow on February 6th provides liquidity fuel for potential sustained recovery. 

Volume indicators show cooling patterns suggesting oversold exhaustion, but sustainability depends on holding $85 resistance. 

Traditional markets crossing Dow 50,000 created risk-on sentiment, though SOL must prove this isn’t a temporary bounce.

<

 

Solana has posted a dramatic 25% recovery in 24 hours, rebounding from $67.69 to approximately $85 amid intense debate over the sustainability of this move.

The rally coincides with Bitcoin’s climb back toward $70,000 and record inflows of stablecoins into exchanges. However, traders remain divided on whether SOL has established a genuine bottom or merely staged a temporary relief rally destined to fail.

Dead-Cat Bounce or Genuine Reversal?

The cryptocurrency community faces a critical question as Solana tests resistance levels following its sharp decline.

SOL found support at a demand zone established in January 2024, a technical level that has proven significant in past price action. Yet the velocity of the bounce has raised concerns about its durability.

Market structure suggests both scenarios remain possible at this juncture. The extreme fear reading on sentiment indicators typically accompanies major bottoms, as capitulation creates buying opportunities.

Conversely, such rapid recoveries often fail when underlying demand proves insufficient to absorb overhead supply.

Volume analysis reveals increased activity during the recovery, but questions persist about buyer commitment. Dead-cat bounces characteristically feature sharp moves on moderate volume before rolling over. The current price action bears some hallmarks of this pattern, though definitive confirmation remains elusive.

Traditional markets provided a tailwind as the Dow Jones crossed 50,000 for the first time. This risk-on environment has lifted technology assets broadly, including cryptocurrencies. The challenge lies in determining whether this support will persist or prove fleeting.

Critical Tests Ahead for Solana’s Recovery

Solana’s spot and futures volume indicators show cooling trends, suggesting the recent selloff reached exhaustion.

This data point supports the bottom formation thesis, as oversold conditions often precede sustainable reversals. However, cooling alone does not guarantee upside continuation.

The $6.371 billion USDT inflow on February 6th represents the largest liquidity injection of Q1 2026. This capital could fuel additional gains if deployed strategically into quality assets.

Alternatively, these funds may remain on the sidelines if investors lack conviction about the recovery’s legitimacy.

Technical resistance now emerges as the decisive factor in determining SOL’s trajectory. The $85 level represents a key battleground where sellers may reassert control.

A failure to break convincingly above this zone would strengthen the dead-cat bounce argument considerably.

The January 2024 demand area must hold on to any retest to validate the bottom formation. If SOL returns to the $67 range and breaks lower, the recent rally will be dismissed as a false start. Bulls need to defend this support zone while pushing the price above overhead resistance.

Market participants are scrutinizing order flow for evidence of institutional accumulation versus retail speculation. Large wallet movements and exchange withdrawal patterns will provide clues about smart money positioning. These metrics will help distinguish between a temporary squeeze and a genuine demand resurgence.

The answer to whether Solana has bottomed or merely bounced will unfold over the coming sessions. Price action around current levels holds the key to resolving this debate decisively.

 

The post Solana Surges 25% From Lows: Has SOL Found Its Bottom or Is This Just a Dead-Cat Bounce? appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

Cardano ADA trades at $0.27 within a critical higher timeframe bullish order block spanning $0.13 to $0.18 

Weekly closes above $0.13 maintain bullish structure; breaks below signal invalidation to $0.0755 

Historical pattern mirrors 2021 setup when ADA rallied 3,400% from similar accumulation zones 

Technical targets project sequential moves to $1.20, $3, $5, and $10 if current support holds firm

 

Cardano trades at $0.27 after a brutal 93% correction from recent highs, positioning the asset at a crossroads that could determine its entire cycle trajectory.

Technical analysis reveals a higher timeframe bullish order block between $0.18 and $0.13, where price action now consolidates.

The $0.13 level has emerged as the single most critical support, with analysts suggesting its defense or breach could unlock vastly different outcomes for ADA holders.

Critical Support Zone Holds Multi-Cycle Significance

The current price structure shows ADA testing support levels that haven’t been relevant since early accumulation phases.

After dropping 78% from the $1 local high reached six months ago, the asset now rests on multi-year support above $0.24.

This consolidation zone represents more than temporary support—it marks the battleground where cycle direction gets determined.

Crypto analyst Patel’s recent assessment emphasizes the importance of the $0.13 to $0.18 range as a higher timeframe bullish order block.

This technical zone has absorbed selling pressure while maintaining structural integrity. The key observation centers on weekly closes rather than intraday wicks, suggesting institutional participants are defending this range on meaningful timeframes.

$ADA ALTSEASON SETUP | 4,500%+ EXPANSION IF SUPPORT HOLDS#ADA Is Trading Inside A HTF Bullish OB After A ~93% Corrective Move From Its Local Macro High, Positioning Price At A Critical Accumulation Vs Invalidation Zone.

Technical Structure
Previous Cycle ATH At $3.1… pic.twitter.com/AJqEKl6LZ9

— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) February 7, 2026

Historical context adds weight to the current setup. During the 2021 bull run, ADA surged 3,400% to reach its all-time high of $3.10.

The subsequent bear market erased 92.89% of that value through a grinding correction lasting into 2026. Price action now sits within the same type of accumulation zone that preceded the previous explosive rally.

The distinction between a 10x cycle and continued downside rests entirely on the $0.13 threshold. Weekly closes above this level maintain the bullish structure and keep expansion targets in play.

Conversely, a confirmed break below invalidates the accumulation thesis and opens the door to deeper retracement toward the $0.0755 level, which represents the final line for high-risk positions.

Expansion Potential Hinges on Support Defense

The path forward splits into dramatically different scenarios based on how price interacts with current support. Bulls defending the $0.18 to $0.13 zone position ADA for what analysts describe as the last accumulation opportunity before parabolic movement.

The technical framework projects sequential targets that extend well beyond previous all-time highs if the base holds.

Immediate resistance appears at $0.4374, identified as the reclaim zone requiring confirmation. Breaking this level would shift momentum and validate that accumulation has concluded.

Beyond that point, the technical roadmap outlines targets at $1.20, $3, $5, and ultimately $10 during a full bull market expansion phase. These projections assume the current support structure remains intact through weekly timeframes.

The magnitude of potential upside reflects patterns observed in previous cycles. Cardano’s 2021 performance demonstrated the explosive potential when accumulation zones break into expansion phases.

The current compression from $1 down to $0.27 has created similar conditions—extended consolidation that historically precedes major directional moves.

Risk management parameters are unusually clear in this setup. The $0.13 weekly close functions as an unambiguous invalidation point for the bullish thesis. Traders can structure positions within the order block while maintaining defined exit strategies.

The asymmetric setup offers compelling upside if support holds, with downside risk clearly mapped to specific price levels that would trigger structural breakdown and force reassessment of cycle expectations.

The post Cardano (ADA) Make-or-Break Moment: Why $0.13 Could Trigger a 4,500% Expansion appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

Trend Research sold 612,452 ETH valued at $1.26 billion over six days to avoid total liquidation. 

The firm’s leveraged position peaked at $958 million in borrowed stablecoins backed by 601K ETH. 

Only 39,301 ETH worth $80.93 million remains after aggressive deleveraging near $1,800 threshold. 

Market observers suggest yesterday’s flush to $1,800 specifically targeted the firm’s known position.

 

Trend Research has offloaded 612,452 ETH worth $1.26 billion over six days as its leveraged position collapses. The firm built a risky $958 million stablecoin debt through Aave’s lending protocol at the position’s peak.

Only 39,301 ETH valued at $80.93 million now remains from holdings that once reached 601,000 ETH. The aggressive deleveraging highlights dangers of excessive leverage during volatile market conditions.

Massive Liquidation Risk Forces Emergency Sales

Jack Yi’s Trend Research constructed one of crypto’s largest leveraged positions before market conditions turned unfavorable.

The structure borrowed stablecoins against Ethereum collateral in a loop that amplified exposure. As prices declined, the collateral value dropped while debt obligations remained fixed. This classic leverage trap forced increasingly desperate defensive maneuvers.

MartyParty, a market observer, called out the risky nature of this position on X. He suggested yesterday’s market drop to $1,800 specifically targeted Trend Research’s liquidation threshold.

According to his analysis, this flush aimed to trigger forced covering and position reduction. The observation underscores how large leveraged positions become known targets during market stress.

Trend Research down to $80m on risky leveraged Ethereum position – these are the plays you dont want to be making.

IMO: This was the reason for the depth of the flush yesterday to get to their $1800 $ETH Liquidation and force them to cover and reduce.

A leveraged Ethereum… pic.twitter.com/MXnXC3gAEI

— MartyParty (@martypartymusic) February 7, 2026

The firm sent 423,864 ETH worth $830.63 million to exchanges in just 24 hours. This selling pressure contributed to Ethereum’s brutal 40% decline over ten days.

Early February marked when Trend Research began scrambling to reduce exposure. The company sold 33,589 ETH for roughly $79 million and deployed $77.5 million in USDT for debt repayment.

These emergency actions lowered the liquidation threshold from $1,880 to $1,830. However, continued price weakness forced additional sales.

On February 4, another 10,000 ETH went to Binance for liquidation. The cascade of forced selling exemplifies how leverage amplifies losses during downturns.

Collapse Coincides with Deteriorating Market Sentiment

The Trend Research debacle unfolds as broader crypto sentiment reaches multi-year lows. Tom Lee, quoted by CryptosRus, compared current conditions to the post-FTX crash of November 2022.

The “is crypto even viable?” narrative has returned amid the carnage. Ethereum’s 40% drop in ten days shattered confidence across markets.

TOM LEE: SENTIMENT IS ROCK BOTTOM

Tom Lee says crypto sentiment is about as bad as it gets right now. $ETH is down ~40% in just the last 10 days.

But he’s seen this before, the same “is crypto even viable?” talk showed up after FTX in Nov 2022.

One stat he keeps coming back… pic.twitter.com/0J3JMS8MG2

— CryptosRus (@CryptosR_Us) February 7, 2026

Lee noted that Ethereum has survived seven drawdowns exceeding 60% over eight years. Each instance produced V-shaped recoveries according to historical data.

Yet the Trend Research collapse adds another layer of concern for market participants. Large leveraged positions unwinding create additional downward pressure that extends declines.

The risky bet by Trend Research now serves as a cautionary tale. Building nearly $1 billion in stablecoin debt against volatile collateral proved catastrophic.

The position quintupled downside risk through leverage mechanics. When Ethereum fell, the spiral became self-reinforcing and unavoidable.

Market observers debate whether this forced selling represents a capitulation event. The combination of extreme negative sentiment and leverage flushing sometimes marks bottoms.

However, $80 million in remaining collateral suggests more selling could occur. Additional declines might trigger final liquidation of Trend Research’s position.

The collapse demonstrates why excessive leverage remains dangerous regardless of conviction in an asset’s long-term prospects.

 

The post Trend Research Forced to Sell 612K ETH as $958M Leveraged Position Implodes appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

Dealer hedging from BlackRock IBIT structured notes amplified Bitcoin price swings at key triggers. 

Structured products with knock-ins, auto-callables, and buffers force automatic BTC market flows. 

Mapping issuance and barrier levels helps traders anticipate short-term Bitcoin price movements. 

Bitcoin volatility driven by flows often occurs independently of broader market sentiment shifts.

 

BlackRock IBIT Bitcoin crash is drawing attention as Arthur Hayes connects dealer hedging and structured notes to BTC volatility. Traders face flows driven by automated mechanisms, not sentiment.

Bitcoin is trading at $69,324.50, up 0.86% over the past 24 hours, supported by strong trading volume of $94.1 billion. Despite the short-term rebound, BTC remains down 16.56% over the past seven days, reflecting elevated volatility. 

Recent price action shows how short-term gains can occur even as broader pressure persists, with market flows and positioning continuing to influence Bitcoin’s near-term direction.

Dealer Hedging Drives Bitcoin Volatility

Structured products tied to BlackRock’s IBIT create complex hedging dynamics. Dealers sell these notes to clients and hedge the embedded options using BTC spot or futures. 

As positions grow, their rebalancing can directly influence prices. These notes often include auto-callables, knock-ins, and downside buffers. 

As BTC approaches key barriers, dealers must act. They buy when prices rise and sell when prices fall. This creates mechanical pressure that can resemble sudden market moves.

Arthur Hayes explained that these flows are not directional bets. Instead, they are systematic hedging responses. 

$BTC dump probably due to dealer hedging off the back of $IBIT structured products. I will be compiling a complete list of all issued notes by the banks to better understand trigger points that could cause rapid price rises and falls. As the game changes, u must as well. pic.twitter.com/9DF8VE9XBL

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 7, 2026

For example, when a Morgan Stanley note struck near $105,000, its 75% knock-in at $78,700 forced the dealer to sell once BTC fell below that level.

In quiet markets, these actions are subtle. However, when positions are crowded, they can dominate price movements. 

As BTC crosses trigger points, flows accelerate automatically, affecting volatility clusters and market perception.

Such mechanisms also extend to correlated assets. Precious metals like silver and gold experienced heightened volatility during the Bitcoin sell-off. 

Silver fell more than 18%, and MSTR stock declined as bearish sentiment spread. Transitioning from calm to stressed conditions amplifies these effects further.

Mapping Trigger Points and Market Flows

Hayes is mapping bank-issued notes to identify key trigger zones. Each note contains invisible barriers that influence dealer hedges. 

Understanding these levels is now essential for traders seeking to anticipate flow-driven price swings.

CryptoQuant analysts confirmed that ETFs, including BlackRock IBIT, have reduced positions accumulated last year. 

This steady selling creates pressure independent of market sentiment. Therefore, price moves may reflect hedging mechanics rather than investor pessimism.

Community discussions on X support Hayes’ observations. Traders note that auto-call and knock-in levels create predictable flow points. 

These mechanical triggers can lead to accelerated selling or buying, often before public narratives emerge.

Moreover, the recent BTC rebound to $70,000 highlights how flows can reverse. Dealers adjust as triggers reset, showing how structured product mechanics shape short-term volatility. 

Hayes emphasizes that traders must adapt strategies according to issuance, positioning, and barrier geometry.

Overall, the BlackRock IBIT Bitcoin crash illustrates a shift. BTC is no longer influenced solely by macro trends or sentiment. Instead, structured product flows and hedging dynamics now play a critical role in price movements.

The post Arthur Hayes Explains How BlackRock IBIT Hedging Shaped Recent Bitcoin Sell-Off appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

January 2026 recorded 108,435 layoffs, the highest January figure since the 2009 recession period.

Job openings plummeted to 6.54 million while hiring plans hit record lows at just 5,306 in January.

Housing market shows 47% more sellers than buyers, creating 630,000 excess sellers—a record imbalance.

Corporate credit stress affects 14-15% of bond segments as inflation trends below 1%, risking deflation.

 

The U.S. economy faces mounting questions about a potential recession as critical economic indicators deteriorate across multiple sectors.

January 2026 witnessed 108,435 announced layoffs, the highest January figure since the 2009 recession, raising alarm bells about economic health.

Labor market weakness, housing imbalances, and credit stress are converging in patterns that historically precede economic contractions, prompting analysts to assess whether the nation is approaching a downturn.

Labor Market Collapse Points Toward Economic Slowdown

The labor market is delivering the strongest early warning signals of potential recession, with job data weakening at an alarming rate.

According to Bull Theory, a market analysis platform, the situation is particularly concerning because “jobs usually weaken before the economy officially slows.”

Weekly jobless claims jumped to 231,000, exceeding expectations and indicating more workers are filing for unemployment benefits.

This acceleration in layoffs suggests companies are not conducting normal seasonal restructuring but preparing for significantly weaker growth ahead.

Bull Theory emphasized that January’s layoff numbers represent something more serious, noting “that is not normal seasonal restructuring” but rather “companies preparing for weaker growth ahead.”

IS THE U.S. ECONOMY HEADING INTO A RECESSION?

Several data points are now starting to show weakness in the US economy.

And the biggest early warning is the labor market, because jobs usually weaken before the economy officially slows.

Right now, the job data is weakening at… pic.twitter.com/29HBtJunKm

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 6, 2026

Job openings have fallen sharply to approximately 6.54 million according to JOLTS data, marking the lowest level since 2020.

When job openings decline while layoffs simultaneously increase, displaced workers face fewer opportunities for reemployment.

Hiring has effectively collapsed, with companies announcing just 5,306 hiring plans in January, the lowest level ever recorded for that month. Businesses are freezing expansion rather than growing their workforce, a clear sign of anticipated economic weakness.

Housing and Bond Markets Flash Recession Warnings

The housing market is displaying critical recession indicators through unprecedented imbalances between supply and demand.

Approximately 47% more sellers than buyers currently exist, equal to roughly 630,000 excess sellers representing the widest gap ever recorded.

Bull Theory analyzed this phenomenon, explaining that “when sellers heavily outnumber buyers, it means people want liquidity” as they prefer “cash instead of holding property risk.”

Housing slowdowns create cascading effects throughout the broader economy, impacting construction, lending, materials, and employment sectors simultaneously.

When real estate transactions freeze, the economic slowdown broadens beyond housing into adjacent industries. Consumer confidence surveys are already showing multi-year lows as job uncertainty spreads, leading households to reduce spending on homes, cars, travel, and discretionary purchases.

The Treasury yield curve is bear steepening again, with long-term yields rising faster than short-term rates near four-year highs.

Investors are demanding higher returns to hold long-term U.S. debt, reflecting concerns the analysis identifies as worries about “fiscal deficits, debt levels, and long-term growth outlook.”

Historically, yield curve shifts of this nature have preceded recessions multiple times, making the current trend particularly concerning for economic forecasters.

Credit Stress and Deflation Risks Intensify Recession Probability

Corporate credit markets are showing dangerous stress levels, with approximately 14% to 15% of certain bond segments either distressed or facing high default risk.

When companies encounter debt pressure, they respond with aggressive cost-cutting measures including layoffs, reduced spending, and halted expansion.

Business bankruptcy filings have been climbing steadily, disrupting supply chains and removing liquidity from the financial system.

Another overlooked recession risk involves disinflation moving dangerously close to deflation territory. Real-time inflation trackers like Truflation show inflation trending near or below 1%, far beneath the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Bull Theory warned that “if inflation falls too fast, spending slows because people expect lower prices later,” adding that “deflation cycles are historically more damaging than inflation.”

The Federal Reserve maintains a relatively hawkish tone despite weakening forward indicators, continuing to emphasize inflation risks while labor, housing, and credit data soften.

Bull Theory assessed the overall situation, stating that when combining all these factors, “you get a macro backdrop that historically aligns with late-cycle slowdown phases.”

However, the analysis clarified that “this does not mean recession is officially here yet” but rather “the economy is becoming fragile and markets are starting to react to that risk.”

The post Is the U.S. Economy Heading Into a Recession? Multiple Indicators Signal Growing Risk N appeared first on Blockonomi.

TLDR:

DOGE hits TD Sequential 9, signaling sellers may be exhausted after weeks of downside. 

Price finds support near $0.090, creating a potential zone for short-term relief rallies. 

RSI and MACD show fading bearish momentum, hinting at early strength returning. 

The monthly accumulation range of $0.077–$0.055 could set up DOGE for long-term upside toward $1.

 

DOGE TD Sequential indicates potential trend exhaustion after a persistent downtrend. The completed nine-count setup aligns with key support near $0.090, pointing toward a likely relief bounce or sideways consolidation before the next directional move.

TD Sequential Signals Short-Term Relief

DOGE’s daily chart shows a completed TD Sequential buy setup after nine consecutive bearish closes. This occurs at the end of a clear downtrend marked by lower highs and lower closes. 

TD Sequential focuses on trend fatigue rather than strength, making this setup notable. Moreover, price action around the TD 9 marker confirms selling exhaustion. 

The sharp, impulsive sell-off led into the signal, followed by a small-bodied candle with long lower wicks. This indicates that bears pushed hard but failed to hold control. 

TD Sequential just flashed a buy signal for Dogecoin $DOGE. pic.twitter.com/tRy8MLTvsD

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) February 7, 2026

Consequently, buyers entered quietly near the $0.095–$0.090 zone, coinciding with prior support levels. Additionally, momentum indicators support the TD read. 

RSI rose from oversold territory into the mid-40s, showing gradual strength. Meanwhile, MACD histogram compression suggests fading bearish momentum. 

Therefore, the setup favors a short-term relief bounce. Furthermore, tweets from market observers emphasize that the 4-hour TD Sequential setup confirms seller exhaustion. 

Price stabilized above $0.090 instead of breaking lower, carving higher intraday lows. As a result, fresh short positions face limited potential.

Finally, completed TD 9s often precede either a multi-candle relief rally or sideways consolidation. If DOGE holds above $0.088–$0.090, it may reach $0.105–$0.112 during the next mean reversion phase. 

Consequently, statistical timing indicates that downside momentum is running out rather than signaling hype-driven strength.

Macro Accumulation Zone Suggests Long-Term Upside

On the monthly chart, DOGE trades within a macro accumulation range of $0.077–$0.055. This zone follows a deep correction from its all-time high and marks a re-accumulation phase. 

$DOGE ALTSEASON SETUP | 400%–900% MACRO UPSIDE POTENTIAL#DOGE is trading into Monthly HTF demand after completing a full macro drawdown from ATH, placing price inside a re-accumulation zone.

Technical Structure
Macro correction completed
Extended HTF accumulation range… pic.twitter.com/TExGWGoJhP

— Crypto Patel (@CryptoPatel) February 6, 2026

Down ~89% from ATH, DOGE remains in extended high-timeframe demand. Furthermore, phased accumulation is recommended over lump-sum entries. 

Pullbacks into $0.077–$0.070, combined with shifts in low-timeframe structure, provide higher-probability setups. Conversely, a monthly close below $0.055 would invalidate the long-term thesis.

Additionally, liquidity targets indicate potential upside. Price could test $0.156, $0.306, $0.48, and eventually $1 if monthly support holds. 

Therefore, the macro accumulation zone combined with the TD Sequential buy setup signals that the market may quietly reset for the next upward move.

Ultimately, DOGE’s short-term relief bounce aligns with longer-term accumulation dynamics. Price stabilization, improving momentum, and statistical exhaustion suggest that the current levels offer a risk-reward opportunity for both swing and long-term positions.

The post DOGE TD Sequential 9 Signals Seller Exhaustion Near $0.090 appeared first on Blockonomi.