JP Morgan: Said the recent KOSPI collapse was driven primarily by forced deleveraging from leveraged ETFs, rather than deteriorating earnings or fundamentals.
The bank estimates leveraged ETF assets have fallen to about $26 billion, with around 75% of deleveraging already complete. Hedge fund long-short exposure has also dropped from over 5.5x to below 4x net assets, indicating more than half of hedge fund deleveraging is finished.
JP Morgan expects foreign net selling of Korean equities to exceed $110 billion this year, with around 90% concentrated in memory semiconductor stocks. Selling pressure should ease as the sector's index weight declines.
The bank maintains an Overweight rating on South Korea with a 12-month KOSPI target of 12,500 (Bull: 15,000; Bear: 8,000), citing resilient AI and data-center investment, improving earnings and governance, and no confirmed slowdown in storage demand.
South Korea: The Korea Exchange triggered a program trading curb on the KOSPI after the benchmark surged 4.00% intraday to 6,777.32. Samsung Electronics jumped 6.4%, while SK Hynix gained 4.7% amid the rally.
🚨 Big Tech's Hidden AI Commitments Hit $1.65 Trillion
• Nikkei reports Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle hold $1.65 trillion in off-balance-sheet AI infrastructure commitments.
• The obligations include long-term GPU purchases and data center leases, disclosed only in financial statement footnotes under GAAP.
• These off-balance-sheet commitments have surged 8x in four years, now exceeding the companies' reported debt.
• Analysts warn the hidden liabilities could trigger liquidity pressures if AI demand falls short of the aggressive growth assumptions behind the spending.
Do you think Big Tech's AI investment boom is sustainable, or are hidden liabilities becoming a major risk?
US Chip Stocks: Semiconductor stocks rebounded overnight, with a semiconductor ETF up about 1.3%, while NVIDIA, AMD and Micron gained. The Nasdaq traded near unchanged.
Earlier selling pressure and leverage-driven rebalancing eased temporarily, offering short-term relief to Korean and broader East Asian memory and semiconductor equipment stocks.
Markets now await earnings from Alphabet, Tesla and Intel, which are expected to test AI demand, capital spending plans and corporate earnings.
The sustainability of the rebound will depend on whether results justify elevated AI-driven market expectations.
🚨 South Korean retail investors suffered heavy losses after a sharp reversal in AI-driven leveraged bets through single-stock ETFs linked to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
KB Financial Group data show domestic retail investors bought KRW14 trillion ($9.4 billion) of these ETFs since their May 27 launch, compared with about KRW2 trillion in net buying by foreign investors.
LSEG data show the KODEX 2x SK Hynix Leveraged ETF has fallen about 70% from its June peak and roughly 50% since launch, highlighting the risks of concentrated leveraged exposure to AI chip stocks.
🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI plunged 5% on Monday as investors unwound leveraged AI-related positions, extending its four-week losing streak.
The index is now 28% below its record high of June 22, reflecting growing concerns over excessive reliance on leveraged bets in AI chip stocks.
The sell-off has renewed downside pressure on South Korea, a key barometer of the global AI trade.
Citigroup downgraded South Korean equities from Overweight to Neutral in its allocation model due to persistent volatility, while maintaining a KOSPI target of 10,000.
Korea Exchange activated the KOSDAQ sidecar mechanism, suspending algorithmic trading for 5 minutes. The KOSPI index fell over 4%, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics both dropping 4.4%.
South Korea will allow foreign financial institutions to borrow Korean won through temporary overdrafts and use won-denominated bonds as collateral in financial transactions.
The measures are part of a broader plan to boost the global use of the won and reduce its reliance as a primarily domestic currency.
The initiative follows Seoul's extension of USD/KRW trading to 24 hours from July 6, signaling further liberalization of the country's foreign exchange market.
Senator Elizabeth Warren urged President Donald Trump to disclose his crypto-related income for Jan. 1–July 15, 2026, with a July 23 deadline.
The request comes ahead of the Senate's vote on the CLARITY Act, a key bill aimed at establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets.
Trump's 2025 financial disclosure reported over $1.4 billion in crypto-related income, mainly from the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin and World Liberty Financial.
Warren said the disclosure would help address concerns over potential conflicts of interest as lawmakers consider major crypto legislation.
$XRP XRP is trading near $1.08, holding above the $1.03–$1.05 support zone but below the 50-day SMA at $1.135.
The technical setup remains bearish, with XRP trading below all three major moving averages and forming a series of lower highs.
Open interest and Binance's estimated leverage ratio have declined, indicating traders are reducing leveraged exposure and adopting a more cautious stance.