BigBreakingWire

Silver plunges 6% in a single day, even as the world’s largest silver ETF adds 136 tonnes to its holdings.

The gold/silver ratio climbs back to 73, a key level in a four-year tug-of-war between the two metals.

$XAG $XAU

BofA: Equity Funds Attract $64.5 Billion in Weekly Inflows; Cash Outflows Hit $53.1 Billion

Equity funds: Recorded net inflows of $64.5 billion in the week ending Wednesday, according to EPFR data cited by Bank of America (BofA).

US equities: Attracted $39.1 billion, while technology equity funds received $10 billion.

Emerging markets: Stocks drew $17.7 billion, the largest weekly inflow since July. Brazil recorded a record $4.7 billion inflow.

US Treasuries: Attracted $3.6 billion, marking the 16th consecutive week of inflows.

Bond funds: Recorded total inflows of $11.8 billion.

Cash assets: Saw outflows of $53.1 billion, indicating a shift in investor allocations toward equities and bonds.

Market takeaway: Strong equity inflows may support risk assets, particularly US stocks, while sustained Treasury and bond-fund demand signals continued interest in fixed-income investments.

$SPY $QQQ

Jefferies Warns AI Investment Slowdown Could Hit US Economic Growth

Jefferies economist Mohit Kumar estimates that US capital expenditure on AI infrastructure could reach 2.5%–3% of GDP over the next three years, representing an unprecedented scale of investment.

Concerns are growing over the sustainability of the AI investment boom, much of which is being financed through debt.

The US dollar and Treasury yields fell as investors assessed the risks associated with elevated AI spending.

Kumar warned that any slowdown in AI infrastructure development could significantly affect suppliers and weigh on broader US economic activity.

The outlook highlights the growing importance of AI-related capital expenditure to US growth and the potential economic risks if investment momentum weakens.

Asian Markets Rebound: South Korea and Japan End Losing Streaks Despite Weekly Losses

South Korea: The KOSPI rose 2.05% to 5,668.05 on Friday, ending a seven-session losing streak as bargain hunting lifted stocks from a six-month low.

Despite the rebound, the KOSPI plunged 14.5% for the week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline and the steepest weekly fall since October 2008.

Thursday’s nearly 8% crash followed a sell-off in technology stocks triggered by higher-than-expected US inflation data and concerns over the sustainability of AI investment.

Japan: The Nikkei 225 gained 1.39% to 65,324.29, ending a six-session losing streak as AI-related stocks recovered. However, the index fell 5.37% for the week.

The broader Topix rose 1.67% to 4,066 but declined 0.95% over the week.

Investors remain cautious ahead of corporate earnings and next month’s US midterm elections, while assessing the outlook for AI-related investments and potential changes in US policy.

Fed Chair Warsh Highlights Investment Boom, Says No Rate Decision Is Predetermined

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh said the global economy is experiencing structural growth and a surge in investment, describing stronger investment as a key driver of the economic upturn.

He attributed the investment surge to sound policies and said artificial intelligence is likely to affect economic demand before its impact on supply becomes apparent.

Warsh said global developments since the September FOMC meeting have largely matched expectations, while acknowledging that US monetary policy and international economic conditions influence each other.

He stressed that the Fed remains committed to price stability and will assess changes in output, employment and inflation when making policy decisions.

Warsh said the October and December FOMC meetings will be important, but cautioned against predicting their outcomes or assuming a predetermined policy path for the remainder of 2026.

$SPY $QQQ

CME FedWatch: 71.8% Probability of No Fed Rate Change in October

According to CME FedWatch, markets assign a 71.8% probability to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike stands at 28.2%.

By December, the probability of rates remaining unchanged falls to 7.2%.

Markets assign a 67.4% probability to a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike by December.

The probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike by December stands at 25.4%.

Market takeaway: The projections indicate that markets expect tighter monetary policy by December, although the figures reflect market-implied probabilities rather than confirmed Fed decisions.

$TLT.ETF $SPY $QQQ

US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Holds at 7.4% for Eight Consecutive Weeks

The average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained at 7.4%, according to Freddie Mac, staying near its highest level since November 2023.

The rate is up from 6.27% during the same period last year and has risen by a cumulative 75 basis points over eight weeks.

Rising borrowing costs are weighing on housing demand and forcing some sellers to reduce asking prices.

Pending US home sales fell 4% month-on-month in September, marking their largest decline in more than three years and their lowest level since 2014, excluding the early pandemic period, according to Redfin.

Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant expects high mortgage rates, persistent inflation and weak consumer confidence to slow the housing market this autumn.

Sturtevant warned that annual existing-home sales could fall below 4 million for the first time since the 1990s.

#WarshPushesToScaleBackForwardGuidanceAndDotPlot

Germany Plans Major AI Partnership with Nvidia; Siemens and Audi Among Participants

Germany is planning a large-scale AI collaboration with US chipmaker Nvidia to accelerate industrial AI adoption and strengthen its global competitiveness, according to Handelsblatt.

Around 12 German companies are expected to participate, including Siemens, Audi and AI startup Black Forest Labs.

The initiative will focus on physical AI, including technologies used to train robots and autonomous vehicles.

A second objective is to develop high-performance industrial AI models capable of competing internationally.

The German federal government is reportedly prepared to invest hundreds of millions of euros in computing infrastructure and AI model training.

Nvidia is expected to contribute technical expertise, including sending engineers to support the project.

US September PPI Jumps 6.3% YoY, Signalling Persistent Inflation Pressure

US producer prices rose 1.3% month-on-month and 6.3% year-on-year in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.7% MoM and 5.0% YoY.

Rising fuel prices were a key driver of the increase, indicating continued energy-driven inflationary pressure.

Separate data showed a key consumer-price measure exceeding forecasts, while a six-month input-price expectations gauge reached its highest level since 2022.

Persistent price pressures could complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and keep interest rates higher for longer.

#WarshPushesToScaleBackForwardGuidanceAndDotPlot

AI Sell-Off Hits US Chip Stocks as Global Bond Yields Slide on Safe-Haven Demand

US chip stocks fall premarket: AMD and Marvell each dropped 3.7%, Intel fell 3.6%, Applied Materials declined 3.0%, Nvidia lost 1.9%, and Broadcom slipped 1.7%.

US Treasury yields retreat: The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 10 basis points to 5.089% as investors sought safety amid the AI-led equity sell-off.

European bond yields decline: Germany’s 10-year Bund yield dropped 8.5 bps to 3.3819%, its lowest since September 9. France’s 10-year yield fell 11.5 bps to 4.7619%, while Italy’s declined 10 bps to 4.4657%.

AI concerns weigh on growth outlook: TD Securities strategist Prashant Newnaha said the bond rally despite hotter-than-expected US inflation may reflect falling market growth expectations as AI stocks plunge.

Market signal: Investors are increasingly using government bonds as a hedge against equity-market risk, amid concerns over AI valuations, financing needs and future growth.

Saxo Bank Says AI Stock Correction May Not Trigger a Broad Bear Market

Market concentration risk: Saxo Bank Chief Investment Strategist Charoen Chanana warned that the US stock market rally is heavily concentrated in a handful of major technology companies, increasing broader market risks.

AI sell-off risks: Weakness in AI-related stocks could drag down major indices, prompt investors to reduce portfolio risk and slow investment in AI infrastructure.

Sector rotation possible: Chanana said an AI-led correction does not necessarily mean a broader bear market if corporate earnings remain resilient and economic growth stays stable.

Potential beneficiaries: Investors could redirect funds towards healthcare, selected financial stocks and industrial companies with more attractive valuations.

Key market signal: If technology stocks fall while gains broaden across other sectors, it may indicate a rotation of capital. If selling spreads across multiple sectors, it could signal rising market-wide risk aversion.

$NVDA $SKHY $SOXLB

South Korean Regulator Calls Emergency Meeting as KOSPI Plunges 9% and KOSDAQ Triggers Circuit Breaker

- South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 9.00% to 5,467.66 intraday, prompting an emergency response from financial regulators.

- The KOSDAQ fell more than 8%, triggering a Level-1 circuit breaker and a 20-minute trading halt.

- The Korea Exchange suspended new order submissions during the halt but allowed order cancellations. Trading resumed through a 10-minute call auction before the market was scheduled to fully reopen.

- Under Korea Exchange rules, a Level-1 circuit breaker is triggered when the KOSPI or KOSDAQ falls at least 8% from the previous close and the decline persists for one minute.

- This was the first Level-1 circuit breaker on the KOSDAQ since July 29. South Korea’s financial regulator said it would convene an emergency meeting to discuss the market sell-off.

$SKHY $KORU $SAMSUNG

TSMC Q3 Profit Jumps 69% to $23.6 Billion as AI Chip Demand Fuels Expansion

Profit beats expectations: TSMC’s third-quarter net profit surged 69% year-on-year to NT$763.1 billion ($23.6 billion), exceeding analyst estimates.

Revenue accelerates: Quarterly revenue rose 51% year-on-year to $47 billion, with the company reporting faster revenue growth over the past two quarters.

Record capital expenditure: TSMC reiterated that capital expenditure could reach a record $64 billion this year as it expands capacity to meet growing demand.

2027 spending forecasts climb: Goldman Sachs projects TSMC’s 2027 capex at $85 billion, while UBS estimates $90 billion, both above the institutional-survey average of $75 billion.

Around 20 fabs planned: TSMC is working to build and equip roughly 20 semiconductor fabrication plants simultaneously across Taiwan and overseas, compared with its historical norm of four to five concurrent projects.

$TSM $NVDA $SKHY

Barclays Analyst Sees Possible Tesla–SpaceX Deal Before December 6

- Potential merger speculation: Barclays analyst Dan Levy believes a Tesla–SpaceX deal could be announced before Tesla’s annual meeting, which is due by December 6, Bloomberg reported.

- SpaceX acquisition seen as likeliest: Levy views SpaceX acquiring Tesla as the most likely deal structure.

- AI chip integration at the centre: Levy said the key strategic value would be vertical integration around the Terafab AI chip plant.

- Regulatory hurdles: JPMorgan warned that regulators, particularly in China, could delay a potential transaction.

- No confirmation: Neither Tesla nor SpaceX has confirmed merger talks. Newsquawk described the analyst’s note as speculation rather than evidence of an active deal process.

$TSLA $SPCX

CoreWeave Seeks Insurance Funding as AI Chip-Backed Financing Exceeds $35 Billion

- Insurance capital push: NVIDIA-backed AI cloud provider CoreWeave is seeking funding from insurance companies to reduce financing costs for AI chips and infrastructure.

- Chip-backed borrowing expands: Fundraising through chip-backed loans, high-yield bonds, convertible securities and equity has exceeded $35 billion year-to-date. CoreWeave’s debt and lease obligations stood at approximately $52 billion at the end of June.

- Major financing deal: Earlier this year, CoreWeave secured an $8.5 billion loan backed by NVIDIA chips and a long-term Meta usage contract. It plans to pitch insurers loans backed by lower-rated customers, including AI labs.

- CEO defends business outlook: CoreWeave’s CEO expressed confidence in the company’s financing, sales, business model and order backlog, saying the backlog is sufficient to support its debt obligations.

- Stock sell-off concerns: The CEO blamed the recent share-price decline on irrational market behaviour and said delays to other companies’ IPOs were affecting investor perceptions of CoreWeave.

- Tech stocks slide: CoreWeave plunged more than 15% in Wednesday’s US session. NVIDIA fell around 3%, Micron declined 4%, SK Hynix dropped 6%, and Dell lost more than 11%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.88%.

$NVDA $SKHY $SOXL

$850 Billion Wiped Out as US Tech Stocks Suffer Steepest Drop in Three Months

Market value erased: US technology stocks lost around $850 billion in market value as the sector recorded its steepest decline in three months, driven by renewed fears of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Inflation sparks concerns: US September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, reigniting concerns that the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy further.

Semiconductors lead losses: The iShares Semiconductor ETF plunged 4.5%, reflecting broad-based selling across chipmakers.

Big Tech under pressure: Nvidia and Meta Platforms each fell more than 3%, adding to pressure on the Nasdaq Composite.

Oracle tumbles: Oracle shares dropped 8.8% during the session, among the sharper declines in major technology stocks.

Why it matters: Higher interest rates can weigh on high-growth technology and AI stocks by increasing borrowing costs and reducing the present value of expected future earnings.

$NVDA $ORCL $QQQ

South Korea to Tighten Real Estate Oversight, Target Foreign Speculation and Suspicious Trades

South Korea’s Real Estate Agency plans to strengthen property market supervision, with a focus on foreign speculative activity and transactions suspected of distorting prices.

The agency will compile new statistics on foreign home ownership and commercial property vacancy rates.

It will use big data and artificial intelligence to improve the accuracy of official property valuations and real estate statistics.

Market and transaction data will be analysed more closely to identify speculative activity and abnormal trading patterns.

The agency also plans to strengthen consumer protection, according to remarks by its head at the National Assembly on October 15, Yonhap reported.

$SKHY $KORU

US Stocks Fall as Nasdaq Drops 1.88%; Semiconductor Index Slides 4.3%

- Major indexes close lower: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.09%, the S&P 500 declined 1.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.88%.

- Big Tech stocks slide: Nvidia fell 3.16%, Broadcom dropped 3.10%, Meta declined more than 3%, and Tesla lost over 2%.

- Semiconductor stocks under pressure: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 4.3%. Micron Technology fell 4%, while SK Hynix declined 6%.

- AI infrastructure stocks tumble: CoreWeave plunged more than 15%, while Dell Technologies dropped over 11%, adding to concerns around technology and AI infrastructure spending.

- Chinese stocks weaken: The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 1.39%, with Bilibili and NIO both declining more than 4%.

- US dollar strengthens: The US Dollar Index rose 0.37% to 102.554. The euro weakened to $1.1153 and the British pound fell to $1.3181, while the dollar rose against the Swiss franc and Canadian dollar.

$NVDAB $SOXLB $SKHY

Fed Rate Hike Odds Rise as US Inflation Hits 3.7%; Treasury Yields Reverse Gains

- October rate hike probability: CME FedWatch puts the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged in October at 66.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike stands at 33.2%.

- December outlook: Markets assign a 62.2% probability to a cumulative 25-basis-point hike by December and a 28.7% probability to a 50-basis-point increase. The probability of no change is 9.1%.

- US inflation exceeds expectations: September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, above market expectations of 3.6%, initially pushing the 2-year Treasury yield to its highest level in more than two weeks.

- Treasury yields retreat: US Treasury prices rebounded overnight, with yields across most maturities falling as traders weighed inflation pressures against dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials.

- Fed policy signals remain mixed: Fed official Mary Daly said rate hikes may be necessary but are not imminent. TD Securities strategist Brooks said the October outlook remains uncertain as economic data and Fed communications send different signals.

- Trump on oil prices: President Donald Trump said the US is making more money than ever because oil prices are high.

#CPIWatch #FedMeeting

Asian Stocks Slide as US Treasuries Rally on Safe-Haven Demand

- US Treasuries rallied across the yield curve during Thursday’s Asian morning session as investors sought safety amid a broad equity sell-off.

- The US 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 basis points to 5.14%, while the policy-sensitive 2-year and 30-year yields also declined.

- Hotter-than-expected US inflation data triggered selling in equities and renewed demand for government bonds, reversing the recent pattern of bond selling driven by inflation and fiscal concerns.

- South Korea’s KOSPI fell another 7%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 4% intraday to 65,028, and Taiwan’s TAIEX declined more than 3%.

- ITC Markets senior analyst Kit Lowe said investors had returned to the traditional safe-haven trade of buying sovereign bonds during equity market sell-offs. Asset managers, including PIMCO, have also recently advocated increasing bond allocations following market declines.

#CPIWatch $SKHY $QQQ