Batchild
🔶Binance Angel |🚀 Crypto Enthusiast | 💼 FinTech Advocate | 🌐 Exploring Binance | 💡 Sharing insights on #Blockchain #CryptoLifestyle | 🌟 Living the digita
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Who’s Really Selling Bitcoin?
Bitwise CIO Reveals What ETF Flows Show
Bitcoin is down over 45% from its October 2025 peak, spot crypto fund AUM has dropped to $130 billion, and roughly 40% of spot Bitcoin ETF holders would need a 50% recovery just to break even.
But according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and GraniteShares CEO Will Rhind in a recent CNBC interview, the people selling are not who most expect.
📊 ETF Investors Are Not Driving the Bitcoin Sell-Off
Net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have been roughly $7 billion, a small number compared to total AUM.
Most of the decline comes from price drops, not redemptions.
👉 The primary sellers are long-term, original crypto holders who built positions over 15 years and are now trimming.
👉 On the other side, financial advisor channels have been buying the dip.
Hedge funds and short-term traders within the same ETFs are the ones creating outflows, which masks the advisor-side buying entirely.
Hougan described it as two different markets inside the same product:
⚡ Fast money trading the next month🧱 Long-term allocators investing over 4–5 years
🥇 Gold Puts Pressure on Bitcoin
Gold breaking past $5,000 an ounce while Bitcoin falls has made things harder for crypto investors.
Rhind addressed it:
“It’s tough to be a Bitcoin investor or crypto investor right now when you look at the price of gold going through $5,000 an ounce… the precious metals thing has really caught crypto investors sort of off guard. This is not supposed to happen.”
🐻 This Bitcoin Bear Market Looks Different
In past bear markets, Bitcoin retraced 77–85%.
This time, the drawdown sits at around 50–52%.
Hougan said ETF-based long-term holders may be the reason for the shallower drop, acting as a price floor even if they have not prevented major losses.
Outflows have also slowed to just under $200 million despite heavy price pressure, which has historically signaled a possible turning point.
(This behavior aligns closely with recent ETF cost-basis stress discussed in earlier market breakdowns around the $80,000 level.)
🏦 Wall Street Firms Open Doors to Crypto
All four major firms — Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, and UBS — now allow exposure to crypto products.
Morgan Stanley has filed to launch its own spot Bitcoin ETF after clearing its roughly 15,000 financial advisors to pitch existing products.
Hougan said a sharp recovery is unlikely.
“Usually these bear markets sort of die in exhaustion, not excitement. I would expect it to sort of bottom out slowly and then things like Morgan Stanley going all in on Bitcoin will be part of what accelerates us when we’re on the upside,” he said.
If ETFs aren’t panic-selling… and advisors are quietly accumulating…
👉 Who do you think controls the next major move for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is down over 45% from its October 2025 peak, spot crypto fund AUM has dropped to $130 billion, and roughly 40% of spot Bitcoin ETF holders would need a 50% recovery just to break even.
But according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and GraniteShares CEO Will Rhind in a recent CNBC interview, the people selling are not who most expect.
📊 ETF Investors Are Not Driving the Bitcoin Sell-Off
Net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs have been roughly $7 billion, a small number compared to total AUM.
Most of the decline comes from price drops, not redemptions.
👉 The primary sellers are long-term, original crypto holders who built positions over 15 years and are now trimming.
👉 On the other side, financial advisor channels have been buying the dip.
Hedge funds and short-term traders within the same ETFs are the ones creating outflows, which masks the advisor-side buying entirely.
Hougan described it as two different markets inside the same product:
⚡ Fast money trading the next month🧱 Long-term allocators investing over 4–5 years
🥇 Gold Puts Pressure on Bitcoin
Gold breaking past $5,000 an ounce while Bitcoin falls has made things harder for crypto investors.
Rhind addressed it:
“It’s tough to be a Bitcoin investor or crypto investor right now when you look at the price of gold going through $5,000 an ounce… the precious metals thing has really caught crypto investors sort of off guard. This is not supposed to happen.”
🐻 This Bitcoin Bear Market Looks Different
In past bear markets, Bitcoin retraced 77–85%.
This time, the drawdown sits at around 50–52%.
Hougan said ETF-based long-term holders may be the reason for the shallower drop, acting as a price floor even if they have not prevented major losses.
Outflows have also slowed to just under $200 million despite heavy price pressure, which has historically signaled a possible turning point.
(This behavior aligns closely with recent ETF cost-basis stress discussed in earlier market breakdowns around the $80,000 level.)
🏦 Wall Street Firms Open Doors to Crypto
All four major firms — Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, and UBS — now allow exposure to crypto products.
Morgan Stanley has filed to launch its own spot Bitcoin ETF after clearing its roughly 15,000 financial advisors to pitch existing products.
Hougan said a sharp recovery is unlikely.
“Usually these bear markets sort of die in exhaustion, not excitement. I would expect it to sort of bottom out slowly and then things like Morgan Stanley going all in on Bitcoin will be part of what accelerates us when we’re on the upside,” he said.
If ETFs aren’t panic-selling… and advisors are quietly accumulating…
👉 Who do you think controls the next major move for Bitcoin?
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🔍 Connect the Dots: Master the Full Macro Picture
To make an informed vote, you need to see both sides of the coin.
The market isn't moving in a vacuum—it's a tug-of-war between traditional currency shifts and technical price walls.
I’ve broken down the two biggest drivers of this move in my recent deep dives:
1. The Dollar Factor : Discover how the crashing US Dollar is creating a "liquidity lifeboat" that could propel Bitcoin past $90K.
2. The 62K Floor Analysis : Understand the historical on-chain indicator that suggests we might have one last scary drop before the moon mission.
To make an informed vote, you need to see both sides of the coin.
The market isn't moving in a vacuum—it's a tug-of-war between traditional currency shifts and technical price walls.
I’ve broken down the two biggest drivers of this move in my recent deep dives:
1. The Dollar Factor : Discover how the crashing US Dollar is creating a "liquidity lifeboat" that could propel Bitcoin past $90K.
2. The 62K Floor Analysis : Understand the historical on-chain indicator that suggests we might have one last scary drop before the moon mission.
Batchild
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🗳️ VOTE: Where is Bitcoin Heading Next? 📉🚀
The charts are at a crossroads. Some indicators point to a $62K "shake-out", while others see the path to $100K wide open. Which side are you on?
The charts are at a crossroads. Some indicators point to a $62K "shake-out", while others see the path to $100K wide open. Which side are you on?
🔥🔥🔥🔥
Binance Square Official
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Selected streamers will receive 1-on-1 support, content and growth guidance, as well as traffic boosts, helping you build a stronger audience and continuously improve livestream quality.
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🔴 $BTC – More Blood Coming!
$BTC is currently in a very sharp decline, because the price dropped in the past 4 months by 53%. A lot of people didn't expect such high volatility because they are either new to the market, or they thought that ETFs would reduce the overall volatility of this market.
The truth is that the market is still extremely volatile, and all ETF investors may be at a massive loss on their account later in 2026, when the price drops to the all-time low of these ETFs.
So, what is my prediction in the short term, and why will Bitcoin probably continue to go down in the next days / weeks?
⚠️ Two Major Issues With the Current Bitcoin Price
I see 2 main issues with the current price of $BTC .
1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement Not Reached
Bitcoin still didn't hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous bull market (2022 – 2025).
📍 This fibo sits at 57,772 USDT — that’s the first magnet.
2️⃣ Descending Channel Trendline
Bitcoin still didn't hit the parallel channel’s trendline (blue descending channel on the chart).
Before any pumps, I would like to see at least 1 of these 2 conditions met:
Either hit the trendline,
Or hit the 0.618 fibo.
🌊 Elliott Wave & RSI Perspective
From the Elliott Wave perspective, these are corrective types of waves, even though they are very sharp.
I am still missing the last (Y) wave of the complex corrective wave (W)(X)(Y).
I would also like to see a bearish divergence on the RSI indicator.
The RSI indicator is oversold,
But there is still no divergence, which is another issue with what I see on the current price of Bitcoin.
📉 Short-Term Outlook
I am bearish, and I think Bitcoin will hit 57k in the short term.
The banks and huge institutions want liquidity as much as possible before a new all-time high, so they want to take all your stop losses.
I wish you successful trades!
$BTC is currently in a very sharp decline, because the price dropped in the past 4 months by 53%. A lot of people didn't expect such high volatility because they are either new to the market, or they thought that ETFs would reduce the overall volatility of this market.
The truth is that the market is still extremely volatile, and all ETF investors may be at a massive loss on their account later in 2026, when the price drops to the all-time low of these ETFs.
So, what is my prediction in the short term, and why will Bitcoin probably continue to go down in the next days / weeks?
⚠️ Two Major Issues With the Current Bitcoin Price
I see 2 main issues with the current price of $BTC .
1️⃣ Fibonacci Retracement Not Reached
Bitcoin still didn't hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the previous bull market (2022 – 2025).
📍 This fibo sits at 57,772 USDT — that’s the first magnet.
2️⃣ Descending Channel Trendline
Bitcoin still didn't hit the parallel channel’s trendline (blue descending channel on the chart).
Before any pumps, I would like to see at least 1 of these 2 conditions met:
Either hit the trendline,
Or hit the 0.618 fibo.
🌊 Elliott Wave & RSI Perspective
From the Elliott Wave perspective, these are corrective types of waves, even though they are very sharp.
I am still missing the last (Y) wave of the complex corrective wave (W)(X)(Y).
I would also like to see a bearish divergence on the RSI indicator.
The RSI indicator is oversold,
But there is still no divergence, which is another issue with what I see on the current price of Bitcoin.
📉 Short-Term Outlook
I am bearish, and I think Bitcoin will hit 57k in the short term.
The banks and huge institutions want liquidity as much as possible before a new all-time high, so they want to take all your stop losses.
I wish you successful trades!
Feb 2021: $2,200
April 2021: $2,200
May 2021: $2,200
July 2021: $2,200
Jan 2022: $2,200
May 2022: $2,200
Dec 2023: $2,200
Feb 2024: $2,200
Sept 2024: $2,200
May 2025: $2,200
Feb 2026: $2,200
Can anyone guess the coin?
April 2021: $2,200
May 2021: $2,200
July 2021: $2,200
Jan 2022: $2,200
May 2022: $2,200
Dec 2023: $2,200
Feb 2024: $2,200
Sept 2024: $2,200
May 2025: $2,200
Feb 2026: $2,200
Can anyone guess the coin?
Bitcoin Price Cools Above $70K as Breakout Battle Near $72K Intensifies
Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from $60,000 📈. BTC is now consolidating gains above $70,000 and faces hurdles near the $72,000 zone.
Bitcoin is attempting to recover but is struggling to clear hurdles ⚠️.The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken) 📊.The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,500 and $67,200 levels 📉.
Bitcoin Price Holds Support
Bitcoin price managed to remain stable above the $65,000 zone. BTC started a recovery wave and was able to climb above the $68,500 resistance zone.
The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Bitcoin is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $70,000, it could attempt a fresh increase 🚀. Immediate resistance is near the $71,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $72,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low.
A close above the $72,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In that case, the price could rise and test the $73,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,650 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000 and $75,500 🐂.
Another Decline In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $70,000 level. The first major support is near the $68,500 level.
The next support is now near the $67,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term 📉.
Technical indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $68,500, followed by $67,200.
Major Resistance Levels – $72,000 and $74,650. 📊
Bitcoin is attempting to recover but is struggling to clear hurdles ⚠️.The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken) 📊.The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,500 and $67,200 levels 📉.
Bitcoin Price Holds Support
Bitcoin price managed to remain stable above the $65,000 zone. BTC started a recovery wave and was able to climb above the $68,500 resistance zone.
The price surpassed the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $69,800 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair.
Bitcoin is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $70,000, it could attempt a fresh increase 🚀. Immediate resistance is near the $71,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $72,000 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent downward move from the $78,988 swing high to the $60,500 low.
A close above the $72,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In that case, the price could rise and test the $73,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,650 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000 and $75,500 🐂.
Another Decline In BTC?
If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $70,000 level. The first major support is near the $68,500 level.
The next support is now near the $67,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term 📉.
Technical indicators
Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone.Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.
Major Support Levels – $68,500, followed by $67,200.
Major Resistance Levels – $72,000 and $74,650. 📊
I don’t think its the bottom yet 😅🥲
Eternel insatisfait
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WHY IS THE MARKET DUMPING?
Bitcoin just dropped below its 2021 ATH, while alts are in free fall. Here’s why:
1. Everything is dumping
- Stocks are dumping today
- Precious metals are dumping
- Oil prices are dumping
This is a sign that investors are exiting risk assets, and crypto is going down with them.
2. Too much FUD
- Epstein is Satoshi
- Saylor will go bankrupt
- USDT is depegging
- Quantum will kill Bitcoin
- Tom Lee will sell ETH
All these FUD narratives are hitting at once, forcing panic selling.
3. Weak job data
- January job cuts soared 118% YoY, now at the highest level since 2009.
- JOLTS job openings came in far below expectations, signaling a weak labor market.
- Yet the Fed remains hawkish and is pausing rate cuts.
This is raising recession fears, triggering a broad market sell-off.
My thoughts
- The crypto market is deeply oversold.
- Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is lower than during the FTX crash, and alts are heavily oversold too.
- The market looks very close to a bottom.
Bitcoin just dropped below its 2021 ATH, while alts are in free fall. Here’s why:
1. Everything is dumping
- Stocks are dumping today
- Precious metals are dumping
- Oil prices are dumping
This is a sign that investors are exiting risk assets, and crypto is going down with them.
2. Too much FUD
- Epstein is Satoshi
- Saylor will go bankrupt
- USDT is depegging
- Quantum will kill Bitcoin
- Tom Lee will sell ETH
All these FUD narratives are hitting at once, forcing panic selling.
3. Weak job data
- January job cuts soared 118% YoY, now at the highest level since 2009.
- JOLTS job openings came in far below expectations, signaling a weak labor market.
- Yet the Fed remains hawkish and is pausing rate cuts.
This is raising recession fears, triggering a broad market sell-off.
My thoughts
- The crypto market is deeply oversold.
- Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is lower than during the FTX crash, and alts are heavily oversold too.
- The market looks very close to a bottom.
$BTC is currently trading around $78,000 at the time of writing, and I expect the price to drop toward $71k–$72k in the short term 📉.
Why?
Looking at the chart, there are several strong reasons supporting this move.
First, whales (banks and institutions) have not yet swept liquidity below the April 2025 swing low. This is a major point of interest, as many retail traders have their stop losses placed just below that level 🎯. Liquidity usually gets taken before a meaningful move higher.
Second, price is likely to retest the downward-sloping trendline of the falling wedge pattern, which aligns perfectly with the $71k–$72k zone.
That said, I see this area as a very good opportunity to buy / go long Bitcoin 🟢. The RSI is starting to move into oversold territory, signaling potential exhaustion on the downside.
Before any deeper move lower, I expect a temporary rebound toward $83k–$84k 📈. The key question will be whether bulls are strong enough to break out of the falling wedge. We’ll let price confirm—but for now, $72k remains strong support.
- My plan for the coming weeks 🔍
- Short-term: expect a drop toward $71k–$72k
- Then: a strong rebound
- Later this year: Bitcoin may still go much lower, potentially below $60k
Because of this, I am not recommending buying altcoins right now ❌. While we may see short-term bounces, altcoins remain bearish in the mid-term. A better window to accumulate altcoins could be around October 2026, though more data is needed to fully confirm this bias.
💬 Comment your altcoin + hit the like button, and I’ll reply with an analysis just for you.
Trading isn’t hard when you have the right guidance. I
Thank you, and I wish you successful and disciplined trades 🚀📊
#BTC
Why?
Looking at the chart, there are several strong reasons supporting this move.
First, whales (banks and institutions) have not yet swept liquidity below the April 2025 swing low. This is a major point of interest, as many retail traders have their stop losses placed just below that level 🎯. Liquidity usually gets taken before a meaningful move higher.
Second, price is likely to retest the downward-sloping trendline of the falling wedge pattern, which aligns perfectly with the $71k–$72k zone.
That said, I see this area as a very good opportunity to buy / go long Bitcoin 🟢. The RSI is starting to move into oversold territory, signaling potential exhaustion on the downside.
Before any deeper move lower, I expect a temporary rebound toward $83k–$84k 📈. The key question will be whether bulls are strong enough to break out of the falling wedge. We’ll let price confirm—but for now, $72k remains strong support.
- My plan for the coming weeks 🔍
- Short-term: expect a drop toward $71k–$72k
- Then: a strong rebound
- Later this year: Bitcoin may still go much lower, potentially below $60k
Because of this, I am not recommending buying altcoins right now ❌. While we may see short-term bounces, altcoins remain bearish in the mid-term. A better window to accumulate altcoins could be around October 2026, though more data is needed to fully confirm this bias.
💬 Comment your altcoin + hit the like button, and I’ll reply with an analysis just for you.
Trading isn’t hard when you have the right guidance. I
Thank you, and I wish you successful and disciplined trades 🚀📊
#BTC
This is a determinant point we need to stay tuned
Eternel insatisfait
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$BTC Here we are. Big support level at $74K which will be the main thing to watch in the week(s) ahead.
Sweeps would be okay but closes below that point would spell further trouble.
Overall, it's easy to see how the market structure has shifted bearish also on the higher timeframe with the bearish rejection at $98K and this latest leg down.
I'm personally slowly buying spot as price goes further down, primarily BTC. I am taking my time for this process though as we have no clue how low things go, and these bear trends to generally take their time too.
Sweeps would be okay but closes below that point would spell further trouble.
Overall, it's easy to see how the market structure has shifted bearish also on the higher timeframe with the bearish rejection at $98K and this latest leg down.
I'm personally slowly buying spot as price goes further down, primarily BTC. I am taking my time for this process though as we have no clue how low things go, and these bear trends to generally take their time too.
Wow, thank you so much, fam 🙏🔥
This truly means a lot to me. I’m incredibly grateful for the support and for this amazing gift. It motivates me to keep creating even more valuable and impactful content 💎📊
Big thanks to the entire community for always backing my work—your support doesn’t go unnoticed 🤝❤️
I hope you continue to find real value in everything I share. More great content coming soon 🚀📈
This truly means a lot to me. I’m incredibly grateful for the support and for this amazing gift. It motivates me to keep creating even more valuable and impactful content 💎📊
Big thanks to the entire community for always backing my work—your support doesn’t go unnoticed 🤝❤️
I hope you continue to find real value in everything I share. More great content coming soon 🚀📈
Binance Square Official
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Congratulations, @Wendyy_ @TF BNB @CryptoZeno @Batchild @Mastering Crypto you've won the 1BNB surprise drop from Binance Square on Feb 2 for your content. Keep it up and continue to share good quality insights with unique value.
🤩💛 ouuhhh thank you 🙏🏾
Binance Square Official
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Congratulations, @Wendyy_ @TF BNB @CryptoZeno @Batchild @Mastering Crypto you've won the 1BNB surprise drop from Binance Square on Feb 2 for your content. Keep it up and continue to share good quality insights with unique value.
🚨Now : India commits to buying $500,000,000,000 worth of "US energy, technology, agricultural, coal, and many other products."
The $BTC to $SILVER ratio has actually aligned almost perfectly with the FTX lows and then rebounded following the major drop in Silver 📉🔄.
It will be interesting to watch this chart closely and see whether we can observe renewed relative strength in BTC in the near future 👀📊.
The volatility in Gold and Silver has been absolutely wild unlike anything most people have seen in their lifetime. A truly fascinating period for the markets ⚡📈.
#PreciousMetalsTurbulence
It will be interesting to watch this chart closely and see whether we can observe renewed relative strength in BTC in the near future 👀📊.
The volatility in Gold and Silver has been absolutely wild unlike anything most people have seen in their lifetime. A truly fascinating period for the markets ⚡📈.
#PreciousMetalsTurbulence
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