Hey everyone,
The war in the Middle East, which I have been warning about throughout 2025, has begun. But to the surprise of many, the markets did not collapse. On the contrary, we saw a rally in cryptocurrency and gold, while indices only corrected slightly.
Just 5 min read it I warned you long before everything
Right now, the prevailing narrative in my information space is that Bitcoin has become a "safe-haven asset," that Iranians are buying it en masse, and that funds are ready to absorb any supply. It seems like the market is reversing.
But this is far from the truth.
Recent Trades Report:
It's possible and necessary to work even in a market like this. I managed to catch a good trade on the last move:
BTC: Long from
66000 exited at 73,300.
ETH: Long from
1880 exited at 2150
Profits are locked in, but this does not change my global outlook. Now is not the time for euphoria and increasing risk, but for a cool head and strict discipline.
Current Situation Analysis: Why This Isn't the Bottom?
Why do I believe that neither $70,000 nor even $60,000 is the bottom yet? Because a bottom is not a point on a chart; it is a process. And this process usually looks different.
Range Formation: We have now defined a large range between ~
60- 73k. This range will be traded, accumulating liquidity on both sides.
The Liquidity Hunt: Markets move from one liquidity pool to another. The majority of buyers' stop-losses are now concentrated below the $60k level. Therefore, a break of this level to the downside is not a question of "if," but "when."
My Base Scenario on the Chart:
On the chart above, I have outlined my vision for the coming months.
The price has tested a significant supply zone.
Next, I expect a prolonged period of trading within the range, possibly with a false breakout to the upside to create even more euphoria.
After that, the most likely scenario is a sharp move down to sweep the liquidity below the current lows.
We have plenty of time until September for large capital to complete its accumulation phase, and this process is rarely painless.
Geopolitics and the Macro View:
Many people have suddenly become geopolitical experts. As someone who has lived in a military conflict zone for a long time, I will say one thing: to my great regret, everything is just beginning. The turbulence will increase, and market sentiment will swing from hyper-positive to panic.
In parallel, the AI revolution is changing everything. We are on the cusp of enormous change. In such times, survival belongs not to the strongest, but to the most adaptable. Flexibility is the key skill.
Conclusion
We are in the process of forming a bottom. It will be a long and likely volatile process. But it is this process that will provide us with what may be one of the last opportunities to buy Bitcoin while it still has a five-figure price tag.
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