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🟡 Bitcoin price wobbles ahead of Fed’s rate decision
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
👆Загнали в канал $69 500 - $74 000, но дальше реакция слабая. На недельном таймфрейме должны поглотить четко выраженый фитиль, а это означает возврат к $60 000.
💁♂️ Осторожно беру шорт с 3x плечем и готов усреднить в случае микропампов. Первая поддержка на $66 500, дальше на $60 000. А глобальный таргет - $54 500.
📍Пока же в пабликах продолжают «разгонять мульку» по типу: киты скупают, это разворот, нужно докупать и загоняют народ в лонги. Знакомо уже…
#btc #биткоин
💁♂️ Осторожно беру шорт с 3x плечем и готов усреднить в случае микропампов. Первая поддержка на $66 500, дальше на $60 000. А глобальный таргет - $54 500.
📍Пока же в пабликах продолжают «разгонять мульку» по типу: киты скупают, это разворот, нужно докупать и загоняют народ в лонги. Знакомо уже…
#btc #биткоин
Feed-Creator-2622308df:
согласен .
最近几笔比较重要的交易机会，大概就是在小熊旗的上边缘下边缘的假突破和假跌破。
1/ 4h的ema50压力位，大概位子73500-74500。这里我觉得会有一个大概5k点的回调。我会尝试做空。
2/ 4h级别的上升通道假跌破，可能假跌破6w3这里，具体是跌破6w3还是6w不确定，因为这里形态走的不多看不出来。反正就是通道的假跌破快速收回，可以做短多。
3/ 4H级别的最后的假突破，通道上边缘和ema200的重合，大概7w9-8w2的位子，尝试做空。
具体刻舟求剑，可参考2022小熊旗。123哪个先来做哪个没有先后顺序。不建议挂单操作，因为均线位置和形态位置会随时间推移变化，只有k线走的越多形态才会越清晰。其余的1h/15min的交易机会，我不太想尝试。因为容错率太低。
#btc
1/ 4h的ema50压力位，大概位子73500-74500。这里我觉得会有一个大概5k点的回调。我会尝试做空。
2/ 4h级别的上升通道假跌破，可能假跌破6w3这里，具体是跌破6w3还是6w不确定，因为这里形态走的不多看不出来。反正就是通道的假跌破快速收回，可以做短多。
3/ 4H级别的最后的假突破，通道上边缘和ema200的重合，大概7w9-8w2的位子，尝试做空。
具体刻舟求剑，可参考2022小熊旗。123哪个先来做哪个没有先后顺序。不建议挂单操作，因为均线位置和形态位置会随时间推移变化，只有k线走的越多形态才会越清晰。其余的1h/15min的交易机会，我不太想尝试。因为容错率太低。
#btc
Буду вдячний за підписку
Кити «гаманці від 10.000 бтс» - фіолетова лінія.
Якраз це коментував на стрімі, що саме вони дуже різко почали підбирати БТС на значеннях нижче 78.000$.
В той час як гаманці від 1000-10.000 трохи скидували «жовта лінія». Це якраз схоже на гаманці ранніх майнерів та адептів бтс «біткоін OG». Вони тримають свої БТС дробно по різних гаманцях. Також тут можуть бути мілкі фонди ETF, клієнти яких почали панік сейли на падінні до 60к. Але і вони повертаються до накопичення.
#jager
$Jager
#btc
Кити «гаманці від 10.000 бтс» - фіолетова лінія.
Якраз це коментував на стрімі, що саме вони дуже різко почали підбирати БТС на значеннях нижче 78.000$.
В той час як гаманці від 1000-10.000 трохи скидували «жовта лінія». Це якраз схоже на гаманці ранніх майнерів та адептів бтс «біткоін OG». Вони тримають свої БТС дробно по різних гаманцях. Також тут можуть бути мілкі фонди ETF, клієнти яких почали панік сейли на падінні до 60к. Але і вони повертаються до накопичення.
#jager
$Jager
#btc
$BTC plan 🧠
This cannot be the bottom until we get higher engagement in the process. More participation in the move= high volume. We’re Short!
Low volume = low reliability.
Price is moving light, with fake breaks and easy stop hunts.
This is not an environment to force trades or size up.
Scalps only at key HTF levels otherwise stay flat.
Cash is still a position.
Capital is defended first, attacked later.
Wait for real volume. Then we move.
#btc #eth #altcoins #GoldSilverRally
This cannot be the bottom until we get higher engagement in the process. More participation in the move= high volume. We’re Short!
Low volume = low reliability.
Price is moving light, with fake breaks and easy stop hunts.
This is not an environment to force trades or size up.
Scalps only at key HTF levels otherwise stay flat.
Cash is still a position.
Capital is defended first, attacked later.
Wait for real volume. Then we move.
#btc #eth #altcoins #GoldSilverRally
📈 $BTC is waking up
5-wave decline completed ✔️
Strong impulsive relief bounce 🔥
Momentum picked up short-term
This is not a trend transition
Still a counter trend move for now
$74k acting like a magnet 🧲
Reaction there will decide next direction
Trade it light. Let BTC show its hand.
#btc #long #trading #crypto #WhaleDeRiskETH
5-wave decline completed ✔️
Strong impulsive relief bounce 🔥
Momentum picked up short-term
This is not a trend transition
Still a counter trend move for now
$74k acting like a magnet 🧲
Reaction there will decide next direction
Trade it light. Let BTC show its hand.
#btc #long #trading #crypto #WhaleDeRiskETH
$BTC Is bleeding🩸 Trillions Of Dollars Wipe Out📉 Market Crashed💥 $BTC is breaking Daily lows😿 #BinanceAIShortDramaContest #btc #eth #marketcrash #WhaleDeRiskETH
📈 Bitcoin (BTC) Shows Strength – Daily & 15-Minute Uptrend Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing a clear bullish structure on the Daily timeframe, indicating that the overall market sentiment remains positive. Higher highs and higher lows on the Daily chart suggest that buyers are still in control.
On the 15-minute timeframe, BTC is also respecting short-term support zones and moving within an intraday uptrend. Price action shows healthy pullbacks followed by continuation, which is often seen during strong momentum phases.
Key Observations:
✅ Daily trend: Bullish
✅ 15-minute chart: Higher lows forming
🔄 Pullbacks are being bought quickly
📊 Volume remains supportive during upward moves
Trading Insight (Educational):
As long as BTC holds above its intraday support, short-term trades may be considered on pullbacks, keeping proper risk management in mind. Always wait for confirmation such as support retests or bullish candles before entering.#btc #ETH #bnb #sol $BTC $ETH $BNB
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently showing a clear bullish structure on the Daily timeframe, indicating that the overall market sentiment remains positive. Higher highs and higher lows on the Daily chart suggest that buyers are still in control.
On the 15-minute timeframe, BTC is also respecting short-term support zones and moving within an intraday uptrend. Price action shows healthy pullbacks followed by continuation, which is often seen during strong momentum phases.
Key Observations:
✅ Daily trend: Bullish
✅ 15-minute chart: Higher lows forming
🔄 Pullbacks are being bought quickly
📊 Volume remains supportive during upward moves
Trading Insight (Educational):
As long as BTC holds above its intraday support, short-term trades may be considered on pullbacks, keeping proper risk management in mind. Always wait for confirmation such as support retests or bullish candles before entering.#btc #ETH #bnb #sol $BTC $ETH $BNB
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