Ab_Aziz_Official

The Big Sunday Report: All We Need to Know

🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:

One week ago in the Sunday report, I explained the ongoing sideways box between 57k and 87k, and how this phase is purely for building liquidity for the inevitable breakdown ahead. Nothing has changed structurally. Bitcoin continues to trade within this range exactly as mapped out, testing the lower boundaries multiple times while rejecting higher pushes. This is classic bear market behavior: boring, frustrating consolidation that lulls holders into complacency before the real pain hits.

Recall: the 2024 box 58k-74k served multiple purposes, primarily drawing reference lines for the 2026 bear market. Now, in the exact same price zone but reversed context, it acts as structure, not support. Structure breaks eventually. We will see repeated tests of 57-60k, which I continue to view as the local phase bottom. My spot buys from that zone are now up ~16% on average, providing solid percentage gains while the macro downside remains fully intact.

Liquidity clusters remain the key driver. The box is creating renewable liquidity on both sides. Fake breakouts above 87k would trap late bulls, while breakdowns below 57k would cascade liquidations. Market makers need this chop to fuel the next leg. Sentiment is still far from true capitulation: unrealized losses are minimal, no widespread panic, holders remain stubborn. This tells me the sideways phase has further to run, likely weeks or months more, before the breakdown triggers toward 44-50k, and ultimately the macro bottom in the low 40s.

Current Plan and Range Logic

Simple as always:
Core shorts from 115k-125k remain fully open and deep in profit. No interest in closing early. These entries were perfect, and the bear market confirmation (death cross, weekly MA100 loss) validates holding for the full ride down.

Spot longs from 57-60k held for bounce gains. These are short-term plays only 2-3 months horizon if market allows, not macro bets. Already banking 20%+, and I'll mention when I plan to exit or add. No leverage here. Pure spot to capture counter-trend rallies without risk of liquidation.

If we spike toward 87k (low probability but possible for liquidity grab), open to adding to shorts there.

The box bottom 57-60k will likely be retested multiple times. That's where risk/reward shines for percentage plays. But remember: this is NOT the cycle bottom. The macro low sits much lower, in the 40s region, expected Sept-Oct 2026 per my models. Until then, expect prolonged boredom interspersed with sharp moves to shake weak hands.

Why No Straight-Line Crash?
Markets never move straight down, even in brutal bears. Look at 2022: 68k to 33k sharp drop, then 50% rally to 48.5k before final leg to 16k. Same here, bounces build liquidity for further downside. Current rally from 60k is exactly that: temporary relief, trapping new buyers before continuation lower.

Psychological Note: Most analysts are silent now or flipping bearish late (after calling altseason at the top). They owe apologies to followers for the Q4/Q1 slaughter. Sentiment indexes show fear, but on-chain data shows no real capitulation yet.