ZeroBlock

Zcash is sitting in an interesting position right now.
ZEC is holding around $1,128 after recently pushing above $1,100. But the derivatives market is showing a very strong bearish view.
Around 72% of top trader accounts are holding shorts while only 28% are long.
That sounds bearish at first.
But the spot market is telling a different story.
The 90 day Spot Taker CVD remains buyer dominant. That means aggressive spot buyers are still absorbing available supply even while many traders are betting on a decline.
This is the part I would watch closely.
When shorts become crowded while spot buyers continue buying then the market can become vulnerable to another short squeeze.
There is already a good example of how risky this positioning can become.
One large ZEC short position entered around $576 while ZEC is now above $1,100. The position is reportedly sitting on a very large unrealized loss.
But I would not assume a squeeze is guaranteed.
The derivatives market is actually cooling down.
ZEC Open Interest fell around 11.5% to $2.41B while derivatives volume dropped more than 42% to around $5.99B.
That means the large short ratio is not necessarily showing a wave of fresh shorts entering the market.
Some traders may simply be reducing their positions after ZEC's huge move.
This makes the current setup more balanced than the 72% short figure suggests.
On the chart there is another level I find important.
ZEC failed to clear the $1,256 area and has started pulling back. The fair value gap below the current price extends toward around $1,024.
For me $1,024 is the key support zone.
If buyers defend this area and spot buying stays strong then ZEC could attempt another move toward $1,256.
A clean break above that level could put the crowded shorts under much more pressure.
But if $1,024 fails then the bullish setup becomes weaker and the market could need a deeper correction.
The MACD is still positive which gives the bulls some support.
So I would not focus only on the 72% short figure.
The more important question is whether spot buyers continue absorbing supply while leverage stays controlled.
If that happens then the bearish positioning could become fuel for another move higher.
If spot demand disappears then those shorts may finally get the move they are waiting for.
Right now ZEC is not a simple bullish or bearish setup.
It is a battle between persistent spot buying and a crowded bearish derivatives market.

Dogecoin just entered a new part of the crypto market.
DOGE can now be used inside the Solana ecosystem through Sunrise. This gives DOGE users easier access to Solana based DeFi without going through the usual complicated bridging process.
The early numbers were interesting.
DOGE reportedly generated more than $10M in trading volume within the first three hours. Over 24 hours that volume reached around $19M.
That is a strong start.
But I would not call it proof of long term demand yet.
The biggest benefit here is liquidity.
Dogecoin has mostly been known as a payment focused network. Its access to DeFi has been limited compared with assets that already have strong connections across different applications.
Now DOGE can potentially be traded and used for liquidity across Solana based applications.
That could create more reasons to hold DOGE.
But there is an important difference between accessibility and demand.
Making DOGE easier to use does not automatically mean people will buy more DOGE.
We already saw that in the price.
DOGE was trading around $0.089 despite the new integration. The token has still gained around 27% over the past month but the latest move has been slightly weaker.
Futures activity is also giving me a reason to stay careful.
Several September sessions saw long liquidations dominate as DOGE moved between roughly $0.08 and $0.09.
That suggests some traders may have become too confident on the upside.
For me the most important number is not the first $19M volume.
It is what happens after the launch excitement disappears.
If DOGE continues generating strong volume while liquidity remains inside the Solana ecosystem then this integration could become meaningful.
If volume quickly falls after the initial launch then the $19M figure will look more like launch speculation than lasting adoption.
The same applies to Solana.
The integration could bring more DOGE liquidity into the memecoin market and create more trading activity. But Solana needs sustained activity rather than one short burst.
DOGE is now easier to access across a much larger DeFi ecosystem.
That is a positive development.
But the market still needs to prove that users actually want to keep using it.
For now I would watch the $0.08 to $0.09 area and focus more on sustained volume than the launch day numbers.

Aerodrome just had a strong move.
AERO jumped around 16% in 24 hours and has now gained roughly 84% over the past 180 days.
But despite that recovery the token is still about 73% below its all time high near $2.40.
So I would not look at this rally in isolation.
The first thing supporting AERO is growth in activity.
TVL increased from around $306.7M to $337.7M. That is roughly $31M of additional capital entering the protocol.
DEX volume is also improving.
Since August 5 volume reportedly climbed from around $305.8M to $520.8M. That is close to a 50% increase.
Those numbers tell me users are becoming more active and capital is moving through the protocol.
But there is a problem.
The protocol is still losing money.
Q3 earnings are around negative $8.15M after incentives. That is the largest quarterly loss reported since Q3 2025.
Token holder net income is also down to around $10.16M.
This creates an important question for me.
Can growing activity eventually turn into healthier protocol earnings?
More TVL and more volume are useful. But if the protocol needs heavy incentives to generate that activity then the growth may not be as strong as the price chart makes it look.
There is another warning coming from the spot market.
AERO spot netflow has remained positive for around 48 hours and is currently around $544K.
Positive exchange netflow generally means more AERO is moving toward exchanges than leaving them. That can increase potential selling pressure.
So right now I see two very different signals.
The protocol is getting more capital and more trading activity.
At the same time profitability is weak and some holders appear to be moving tokens toward exchanges.
That is why I would be careful about chasing the 16% move.
If TVL keeps rising and volume continues expanding while spot netflow turns negative then the rally would look much healthier to me.
But if exchange inflows remain positive and losses continue then AERO could struggle even with strong short term price momentum.
The next move will not be decided by the 16% candle.
It will be decided by whether Aerodrome can turn growing activity into sustainable value.

Ethereum is looking at an upgrade that could change the relationship between ETH and network usage.
The proposed EIP 8141 Frames upgrade would allow users to pay gas fees with stablecoins instead of needing ETH for every transaction.
At first this sounds like a simple convenience feature.
But I think the bigger question is what it means for ETH demand.
Today users need ETH to pay gas. That creates a direct link between network activity and demand for ETH.
If stablecoins can be used for gas then that link becomes weaker.
Someone could hold USDC or another stablecoin and interact with Ethereum without first buying ETH just to cover transaction fees.
That sounds negative for ETH at first.
But there is another side.
Ethereum already holds a huge share of the stablecoin market. The network reportedly has around $147B in stablecoin liquidity and close to half of the total stablecoin supply.
If stablecoin usage keeps growing then making Ethereum easier to use could bring even more activity onto the network.
That could matter much more during the next DeFi cycle.
Stablecoins are increasingly being used for payments and settlement. If users can move stablecoins and pay fees with the same assets then the friction becomes much lower.
For me this is where the upgrade gets interesting.
Ethereum may be moving away from the idea that every user must directly interact with ETH for every transaction.
Instead ETH could become more of the asset securing the network while stablecoins become the everyday payment layer.
That does not automatically mean ETH price will rise.
In fact there is a real tradeoff here.
Less direct need for ETH to pay gas could reduce one source of natural ETH demand. So the bullish case has to come from increased network activity and stronger DeFi usage rather than simply assuming more transactions equal more ETH buying.
That is the part I would watch.
If stablecoin activity grows sharply after this model becomes available and Ethereum captures more users then the upgrade could strengthen Ethereum's overall utility.
But if stablecoin payments simply replace ETH gas without creating much additional activity then the impact on ETH could be much smaller.
So I would not call EIP 8141 an automatic bullish upgrade for ETH.
The more interesting possibility is that Ethereum becomes easier to use for billions of dollars in stablecoin activity.
And if that brings a new wave of DeFi users then ETH could benefit from the ecosystem growth even if users are no longer buying ETH just to pay gas.

XRP just went through a serious market cleanup.
Open Interest dropped 14% from around $558M to $478M. Leverage also fell from 0.203 to 0.182 after roughly $14.2M in liquidations hit both sides of the market within 48 hours.
For me this is not automatically bearish.
A large liquidation flush can remove traders who were using too much leverage. That can leave the market in a healthier position if spot demand remains strong afterward.
Funding also turned slightly negative at around minus 0.002.
That ended a long stretch of positive funding and tells me traders are no longer aggressively chasing XRP longs.
But the more interesting part is what did not happen.
Binance reserves stayed almost flat near 2.62B XRP. Deposit addresses also dropped around 91%.
So leverage was removed without a major rush of XRP toward exchanges.
That is an important difference.
If exchange reserves were rising at the same time then I would be more concerned about fresh selling pressure. For now the data looks more like traders getting flushed while holders remain relatively calm.
And there is another story developing underneath the price.
XRPL asset value has grown from around $99M in Q1 2025 to roughly $4.26B by Q2 2026.
That is a huge change.
The growth has also continued quarter after quarter rather than appearing as one short spike.
Stablecoin activity is becoming another important part of this story.
RLUSD transferred value reportedly jumped 925% year over year. That suggests stablecoins are becoming more active inside the XRPL ecosystem and could support more settlement and liquidity over time.
RWAs are also expanding. But most of that value appears to be held through registry style structures rather than constantly moving between users.
So I see two different forces right now.
Short term leverage has cooled down.
Longer term network activity is still developing.
The next XRP move will depend on whether spot buyers return after this reset.
If Open Interest stays controlled while XRP demand improves then this liquidation flush could become the foundation for a recovery.
But if price starts falling while spot demand remains weak then the reset will not be enough.
I would watch exchange reserves and spot buying more closely than leverage right now.
A cleaner derivatives market is useful.
But XRP still needs real buyers to turn that reset into a sustained recovery.

Worldcoin is moving fast again.
WLD jumped more than 13% in 24 hours and pushed weekly gains above 26%. Over the past month the move has been even stronger with gains above 50%.
What caught my attention is that this rally came while a major token unlock was happening.
Around 69M WLD tokens worth roughly $28M were unlocked on September 7. Normally an event like this can create extra selling pressure.
But buyers absorbed it.
The bigger reason seems to be renewed interest in AI related crypto projects. Several AI focused tokens have also moved higher at the same time. That tells me this may not be only a WLD specific move.
Spot buying is also showing improvement.
Spot Taker CVD turned positive near the end of August and stayed stronger into September. That suggests buyers have started taking more control of the spot market.
Leverage is adding fuel too.
Top trader long short ratios moved above 1.90 in some readings. Short liquidations also crossed $1.2M in 12 hours while long liquidations were around $490K.
That difference matters.
When shorts are forced to close during a strong move they can create additional buying pressure and make the rally move much faster.
But this is where I would stay careful.
WLD has now pushed into the $0.41 to $0.45 area. This was an important previous lower high and also sits around the neckline of an inverted head and shoulders setup.
So $0.45 is not just another price.
It is the level that needs to become support.
If WLD can hold above $0.45 then the next areas I would watch are $0.55 and later around $0.67.
But RSI is already near 67 and the bearish divergence mentioned in the data has not disappeared. More WLD unlocks are also expected during September.
That creates a simple situation for me.
Above $0.45 with strong spot demand could confirm that the market structure is changing.
Failure to hold it could turn this entire move into another temporary bounce.
I would not chase a 13% candle here.
I would rather see whether buyers can defend $0.45 after the excitement cools down.
That reaction will tell us much more than the rally itself.

Celestia just made a strong move.
TIA climbed around 11% in 24 hours and broke above the $0.42 resistance before reaching a four month high near $0.48. Trading volume also jumped almost 300%.
But the part I find more interesting is what happened after the move.
TIA pulled back from $0.48 to around $0.43. That tells me buyers pushed hard but sellers were waiting at the higher levels.
There are a few reasons behind the renewed interest.
Celestia is getting more attention for its role as a data availability layer for modular blockchains. The idea is simple. Rollups need a scalable way to make data available without putting everything directly on one chain.
Staking is another part of the story.
Around 393.9 million TIA are reportedly staked. That is roughly 43% of the total supply. The staking reward rate is around 5.48% which can make holding TIA more attractive for some investors.
But the price action is showing a problem.
Profit taking is clearly increasing.
Futures recorded around $92M in outflows against $87.6M in inflows over the past 24 hours. Futures netflow also dropped sharply to around minus $4.4M.
Spot data is showing something similar.
Exchange inflows were around $15.3M while outflows were around $14.7M. That pushed spot netflow positive to around $595K.
These numbers are not enough to say the rally is finished. But they do show that sellers are becoming more active after the move higher.
The chart still looks strong though.
Stochastic RSI is around 88 and DMI is around 40. Both are showing strong momentum. The issue is that these readings also mean the market is getting stretched after a fast move.
For me the levels are simple.
$0.42 is now the important support area.
If TIA holds above it and buyers return then $0.48 can come back into focus. A clean break above $0.48 could open the way toward $0.50.
But if profit taking pushes TIA below $0.40 then I would start watching $0.34.
I would not chase the $0.48 move.
The real question is not whether TIA can touch $0.48 again.
It is whether buyers can hold the price there while sellers keep taking profit.

NEAR is moving quickly again.
The token gained around 10 percent in the last 24 hours and is now close to the $2.55 resistance level.
What makes this move interesting is the volume.
Trading volume jumped 67 percent to around $676M. That tells me buyers are still active and the move is not happening on weak activity.
NEAR also broke out from a pennant pattern after spending weeks in consolidation.
But there is another part of the story that caught my attention.
Network TVL has climbed sharply.
TVL increased from around $83M on August 17 to more than $185M. That is a major change in a short period.
Rising TVL does not guarantee that the token price will keep going higher. But it does show that more capital is being placed inside the ecosystem while the price and trading activity are also improving.
Technically the setup remains strong.
NEAR is trading above its key daily EMAs around $2.43.
That gives buyers a better short term structure.
But now comes the difficult part.
$2.50 to $2.55 is the area I would watch closely.
NEAR has already moved strongly and traders sitting on profits may start selling into this resistance.
If volume remains high and buyers push through $2.55 then the old resistance could become support.
That would make the breakout much more convincing.
But if NEAR gets rejected around $2.50 to $2.55 and volume starts falling then a short term correction would not surprise me.
For me the next move is more important than the recent 10 percent gain.
The fundamentals are improving.
The trading activity is strong.
The chart is bullish.
But price still needs to prove that $2.55 can turn from resistance into support.
I would not chase the move just because NEAR is close to a breakout.
A clean breakout with strong volume is what I want to see.
Until then $2.55 remains the level that decides whether this rally has more room or needs a pause.

MSTR සිය ජුනි මාසයේ අවම අගයෙන් පසු ශක්තිමත් ප්‍රකෘතියක් ලබාගෙන තිබේ.
එම කොටස් ජුනි මස අවසානයේදී $195 දක්වා මැයි මාසයේදී වෙළඳාම් කරමින් තිබියදී පසුව ආසන්න වශයෙන් $87 දක්වා පහළ ගියේය. එතැන් සිට එය 60% කට වැඩි ප්‍රමාණයකින් ඉහළ ගොස් ඇති අතර මෑතකදී $142.80 පමණට වසා දැමීය.
එය ඇත්තටම දැක්වෙන ලෙසයි.
එහෙත් මහා දෘෂ්ටිකෝණය තවමත් බෙහෙවින් වෙනස්.
MSTR පසුගිය වසර තුළදී තවමත් ආසන්න වශයෙන් 56% කින් පහළය.
මට ඊළඟට වැදගත්ම ප්‍රදේශය $145 සිට $150 දක්වා.
මෙම කලාපය පෙර පැවති උද්වේගයන් නතර කර ඇත. ගැනුම්කරුවන්ට එය හරහා ඉදිරියට ගොස් එහි ඉහළින් රැඳී සිටිය හැකි නම් $160 ඊළඟ ඉලක්කය විය හැක.

ZCAT has suddenly attracted a lot of attention.
The token jumped around 35 percent in 24 hours and reached a market cap near $150M. Trading volume also reached around $40.9M.
But the price move is not the most interesting part for me.
The bigger story is the ZEC reward system.
ZCAT reportedly distributed around 2320 ZEC worth roughly $2.8M to holders.
The model is simple.
Every ZCAT transaction has a 3 percent fee. Most of that fee is used to buy ZEC. The ZEC is then distributed to eligible ZCAT holders.
That sounds attractive on the surface.
But there is an important catch.
The rewards depend on people continuing to trade and transfer ZCAT.
So the same activity that creates rewards also creates the fees needed to fund them.
If trading activity slows down then future rewards can also become smaller.
There is also a minimum holding requirement of around $20 worth of ZCAT.
The project says more than 470000 payments have already been made. But that does not mean 470000 different holders received rewards. One wallet can receive multiple payments.
This distinction matters when trying to judge actual adoption.
The price action itself is another warning.
ZCAT moved between roughly $0.090 and $0.175 in just 24 hours.
That is a massive range for a token that has only existed for a few days.
Anyone buying near the daily high could have faced a sharp loss shortly after.
For me the biggest question is sustainability.
The reward system can attract buyers while ZCAT activity remains high. But it still needs continuous trading activity to keep the system going.
The connection with ZEC is interesting because Zcash has also been performing strongly.
But a strong ZEC market does not automatically guarantee lasting demand for ZCAT.
Right now I would treat ZCAT as a highly speculative asset.
The reward model is interesting.
The early numbers are impressive.
But the token needs to prove that demand can survive after the initial excitement fades.
A 35 percent move looks great on the chart.
The real test is what happens when the hype slows down.

HYPE recently reached a new all time high near $89.
At first glance the setup still looks strong. But the chart is starting to show a different side.
The MACD has formed a death cross. This means the MACD line moved below its signal line and short term momentum is weakening.
This does not mean HYPE must crash.
The last similar signal in June was followed by a period of sideways trading rather than a major collapse.
That makes the $80 area very important for me now.
The interesting part is that spot buyers are still active.
Around $73.32M worth of HYPE was bought over the past 24 hours. Over the last seven days buyers purchased around $445M worth of HYPE.
At the same time around $4.54M worth of HYPE moved out of exchanges in the last 24 hours.
That tells me there is still real demand underneath the price.
But there is another warning coming from the derivatives market.
Long traders are already taking more damage than short traders. Around $225K in long positions were liquidated during the past day compared with only around $9.5K from shorts.
That is a big difference.
When long traders keep getting liquidated it can create additional selling pressure even when the longer term demand picture remains healthy.
So I would not look at the $445M buying figure and assume the downside risk is gone.
For me the next few days are about the battle between spot accumulation and short term selling.
If HYPE holds $80 while spot buying continues then the death cross could simply lead to consolidation before another attempt higher.
If $80 breaks and long liquidations accelerate then the recent all time high could start looking like a local top.
The buying activity is encouraging.
The technical signal is not.
Right now I would rather watch how HYPE reacts around $80 than chase the move after an $89 high.

Solana had a strong August with SOL gaining around 41 percent.
Now September is bringing a different story.
One thing that caught my attention is the flow of memecoin liquidity back toward Solana.
ZCAT recently jumped around 500 percent in one day and reached a market cap near $140M. That shows how quickly traders can move when a new memecoin starts gaining attention.
But this is where I would be careful.
Memecoin activity can bring a lot of volume to Solana. It can also create more demand for SOL because traders need SOL to move around the ecosystem.
The problem is that this type of liquidity can disappear just as quickly as it arrives.
Another interesting point is that memecoin dominance across the wider altcoin market is still near its lowest level of the year.
So the current activity looks more like concentrated speculation than a broad memecoin recovery.
That makes the Q4 setup difficult to read.
If liquidity continues moving into Solana and more projects start attracting users then SOL could benefit from another wave of activity.
But if only a few memecoins continue pulling most of the money then the risk becomes much higher.
A sharp fall in one major token can quickly spread fear across the rest of the ecosystem.
I also would not ignore the recent change in on chain trading activity.
Solana has faced stronger competition for DEX volume recently. That means SOL needs more than a few viral tokens to prove that liquidity is really returning.
For me the key signal is spot demand.
If SOL starts seeing stronger spot buying while network activity remains high then the Q4 recovery could become more convincing.
If memecoin volume rises while SOL spot demand stays weak then the rally could become mostly speculative.
Right now I see an opportunity but not confirmation.
Memecoin liquidity can help Solana.
But the real question is whether that liquidity stays long enough to support SOL itself.

TAO is moving fast again.
The token jumped around 13 percent and reached $277. That is the highest level seen in roughly three months.
What caught my attention is that this move is not happening in isolation.
AI related tokens have started seeing fresh capital. Trading volume across the sector also increased sharply. TAO itself saw volume rise to around $558M.
The Raydium integration is another important part of the story.
TAO getting access to the Solana DeFi environment gives it a wider pool of users and traders. The launch of a Bittensor related memecoin also created another route for people to interact with TAO.
But I would be careful here.
A memecoin launch can create short term demand without creating lasting demand for the main token.
The stronger signal for me is what is happening in the spot market.
TAO has recorded positive spot buying for five straight days. Buy volume reached around 265K while the buy and sell difference remained positive.
That tells me this move has more than just leverage behind it.
At the same time Open Interest climbed to around $428M. That is a four month high.
This is where things can become interesting.
Higher spot demand is healthy.
Higher Open Interest means more traders are also taking positions. That can push the move higher but it can also make the market more fragile if the price suddenly turns down.
Momentum is currently supporting the buyers.
MACD has moved into a bullish crossover while the Awesome Oscillator has stayed positive.
So what comes next?
For me $280 is the first level to watch.
A clean move above $280 could bring $300 into focus.
But I would not assume that $300 is guaranteed.
If the excitement around the Raydium integration fades and spot demand weakens then TAO could move back toward $234.
The important thing is whether real spot buying continues after the initial excitement.
Right now the setup looks strong.
But the next move will tell us whether this is a real trend change or simply another short term rotation into AI tokens.

Polkadot has made a strong move this week with DOT rising almost 19 percent since August 31.
The interesting part is that network activity also jumped around 150 percent.
At first glance this looks very positive. More activity can mean more users and more usage. But I would be careful about connecting network activity directly with a lasting price recovery.
A large part of the activity came from the Polkadot Products Devnet environment. That matters because development activity does not always translate into immediate token demand.
DOT is now testing the $1 level again.
This is where the chart becomes more important for me.
DOT has been in a larger downtrend since June 2025. The recent bounce has improved the short term structure but the bigger trend has not changed yet.
The weekly chart still needs a close above $1.38 before I would consider the long term structure meaningfully stronger.
There is also another warning sign.
The weekly CMF remains negative around -0.16. That suggests longer term capital flow has not fully turned in favor of buyers.
The daily chart looks much better though.
DOT broke above the previous lower high around $0.88. Momentum has also improved and daily CMF moved to around +0.21.
So there is clearly buying pressure in the short term.
But this is where swing traders need to separate a bounce from a confirmed reversal.
The $1 area is the first major test. If DOT breaks and holds above it then $1.38 becomes the next important level.
Until that happens I would not treat this move as a confirmed trend reversal.
For traders already holding DOT this rally may be a reasonable area to protect some profit rather than assuming the move will continue without a pause.
The network activity is encouraging.
The price structure still needs to prove itself.
For me the real signal is not the 19 percent weekly gain.
It is whether DOT can turn $1 into support and eventually break $1.38 with strong demand.

Bitcoin pushed back toward $82K but the move showed something important under the surface. Leverage came back quickly during the rally.
Binance Open Interest jumped almost 8 percent in 24 hours and moved above $10B. BTC based Open Interest also reached 125830 BTC. This tells me traders were opening fresh positions instead of the move being driven only by spot buyers.
But after BTC fell back below $80K Open Interest cooled to around $9.67B.
For me this is not necessarily a bad sign.
A market with too much leverage can look strong until one sharp move starts liquidating traders. When Open Interest cools after a rejection it can remove some of that excess risk.
The bigger question is what happens next.
If spot buyers start taking control while Open Interest stays stable then the recovery becomes much healthier. If leverage starts rising again without strong spot demand then another sharp reversal becomes possible.
Miner data is also interesting.
The Miners Position Index is around neutral at -0.036. It previously moved close to 2.8 in August but quickly dropped back. Since then it has mostly stayed around zero.
That suggests miners are not rushing to send large amounts of Bitcoin toward exchanges.
This removes some immediate selling pressure but it does not create demand by itself.
Another thing I am watching is Bitcoin's relationship with gold. The 90 day correlation has moved close to +0.50. At the same time the Nasdaq correlation has dropped toward +0.30.
Bitcoin is starting to behave a little more like a monetary hedge and a little less like a pure technology risk asset.
But correlation is not proof of a new trend.
The real confirmation still has to come from spot demand.
For now I would watch $80K closely. Holding that area while leverage stays controlled and spot buying improves would make the recovery look much stronger.
Losing $80K while leverage builds again would tell a very different story.

Raydium just made a move that caught my attention.
RAY jumped around 33 percent in one day and reached $1.19. That is the highest level in about eight months.
After holding the $0.80 area the token finally pushed through $1.
Trading activity also exploded.
Daily volume jumped around 876 percent to roughly $114 million while the market cap increased around 32 percent.
But the price move is only one part of this story.
The bigger thing I am watching is what Raydium is doing with its revenue.
Around 86 percent of protocol revenue is being used for RAY buybacks.
The protocol has reportedly spent around $190 million on buybacks and acquired more than 69 million RAY.
There is also a direct link between trading activity and token demand.
Around 12 percent of swap fees are used for open market RAY purchases across three pools.
That creates a steady source of buying as long as trading activity remains strong.
Staking is adding another layer.
Staked RAY has continued to grow and recently reached around $36 million.
When tokens move into staking they are temporarily removed from the active market.
So there are two forces working at the same time.
Buybacks are creating demand.
Staking is reducing available supply.
That can help explain why RAY managed to push higher even while some holders started taking profits.
Spot netflow reached around $561000 which was a four month high.
Some whales also appear to have unstaked and moved their tokens toward the market.
Around 260000 RAY were unstaked and deposited into Binance while another 191000 RAY were unstaked and deposited into Gate.
Together that was around 451000 RAY worth roughly $500000.
This is the part I would watch closely.
RAY has already moved a long way in a short period.
The RSI is around 84 which means the market is heavily stretched.
That does not automatically mean the rally has to end.
It does mean the risk of profit taking is getting higher.
The current trend still has strength with DI+ moving strongly higher and showing buyers remain active.
The next upside level being watched is around $1.26.
But I would not chase RAY simply because it crossed $1.
The real question is whether trading activity stays strong enough to keep funding those buybacks.
If volume remains high then the current supply pressure could stay under control.
If volume drops sharply then the market may start testing whether buybacks and staking are enough to support the price.
For me $1 is now the level that matters.
Holding above it keeps the breakout structure alive.
Losing it could turn this rally into another profit taking phase.
RAY has shown strength.
Now it needs to prove that the strength can last.

This week was a good reminder that altcoins can move very fast in both directions.
Bitcoin started September with a move above $80K before falling back toward the $77K area. ETF flows stayed important while jobs data inflation and Fed expectations kept the market nervous.
But the biggest moves came from smaller coins.
PONS was the clear winner.
PONS gained around 192 percent this week after already jumping more than 400 percent the previous week.
The token reached a new all time high near $0.97.
That is an impressive move but it also shows how strong FOMO has become around the coin.
The next obvious level is $1.
If buyers can push through that area then the move could continue. But after such a huge rally I would not be surprised to see a sharp pullback either.
ARB also had a massive week with a gain of around 140 percent.
The interesting part is that ARB is now approaching $0.20 which has acted as a major resistance area.
RSI is also getting close to overbought territory.
So ARB looks strong but this is not an area where I would blindly chase the move.
DASH gained around 65 percent and is now approaching the $70 to $80 zone.
Unlike ARB the RSI still has room before reaching extreme levels.
A clean move above $80 could bring more buyers.
A rejection could lead to profit taking.
Some smaller coins moved even harder.
PAIR jumped around 1602 percent.
MAX gained around 620 percent.
STONK climbed around 410 percent.
But the losing side tells another story.
PUMP dropped more than 11 percent this week after falling around 15 percent the week before.
The token has now erased almost 30 percent of its recent gains.
Still the chart remains range bound around $0.004.
If buyers return and PUMP breaks above $0.004 then $0.005 could come back into focus.
TRUMP also fell around 10 percent after its strong August rally.
The important level here is $2.50.
If that level holds then the recent correction could become a base for another move higher.
If it fails then the bullish setup becomes weaker.
CC was down around 5 percent this week.
The decline is smaller than PUMP and TRUMP but the structure looks weaker.
A move below $0.10 could erase much of the recent recovery.
Other smaller coins also suffered badly.
CYS dropped around 68 percent.
MAGMA fell around 51 percent.
CARDS lost around 46 percent.
Looking at the full week I think the main lesson is simple.
Strong pumps do not mean unlimited upside.
Sharp corrections do not always mean the trend is finished.
The important part is knowing where the next support and resistance levels are.
This market is giving traders plenty of opportunities.
It is also giving them plenty of reasons to manage risk.

Something interesting is happening with on chain activity.
Solana has been one of the biggest names in DEX volume for a long time. But Robinhood Chain just recorded something that deserves attention.
On September 5 Robinhood processed around $1.45 billion in daily DEX volume.
Solana recorded around $1.25 billion.
That means Robinhood became the first chain to flip Solana in daily DEX volume.
The lead is not just appearing for one moment either.
Intraday volume was around $1.36 billion for Robinhood compared with roughly $1.28 billion for Solana.
That does not mean Solana has suddenly lost its position.
Over the last 30 days Solana still had more than $65 billion in DEX volume. That is far ahead of most other chains.
But Robinhood is growing very quickly.
Daily DEX volume recently crossed $3 billion for the first time.
Around $880 million is now locked on the chain. That is roughly 30 percent higher than one week earlier.
Deposits are also approaching $1 billion.
This is where the story becomes more interesting for Ethereum.
Robinhood Chain is built on Ethereum.
So when activity grows on the chain it can also create more demand for the Ethereum ecosystem.
The revenue numbers are already showing that activity is becoming meaningful.
Robinhood recently generated around $6.8 million in earnings. That was reported as a record level for an Ethereum Layer 2.
At the same time some activity on Solana is showing signs of cooling.
Pump.fun volume dropped from around $3.16 million to $1.18 million within eight days.
Solana transaction activity also fell around 37 percent from its August 28 peak.
I would not call this the end of Solana's DEX dominance.
One day of volume is not enough to change a long term trend.
But the rotation is worth watching.
For more than a year the SOL to ETH ratio has been moving around the 0.04 area.
If Solana continues losing part of its DEX activity while Ethereum keeps gaining activity through new Layer 2 growth then that ratio could become much more interesting going into Q4.
The important thing here is that Ethereum does not necessarily need to beat Solana directly.
It may only need the market to start valuing Ethereum's growing activity differently.
Robinhood is creating another source of on chain volume.
Liquidity is increasing.
Fees are growing.
And Ethereum is sitting underneath that activity.
For me the next few weeks matter more than this single volume flip.
If Robinhood can keep these numbers high then the market may start asking a different question.
Not whether Solana is still strong.
But whether Ethereum is finally getting enough real activity to close the gap.

HYPE is heading toward one of its biggest supply tests yet.
On October 6 around 9.92 million HYPE tokens are scheduled to unlock.
At current prices that is close to $860 million worth of tokens.
That number immediately looks scary.
But I think the more important question is not how big the unlock is.
It is how much of that supply actually reaches the market.
The September distribution gives us an interesting clue.
Only around 0.19 percent of HYPE was released on September 6 which was worth about $36.56 million. That was much lower than the scheduled allocation.
So the October event does not automatically mean $860 million worth of HYPE will suddenly be sold.
Contributor wallet activity will matter much more.
If contributors hold their tokens then the immediate selling pressure could stay limited.
If large amounts move toward the market then liquidity becomes the real problem.
The October unlock represents roughly 3.9 percent to 4.5 percent of circulating supply.
That is large compared with normal daily spot activity.
Now there is another side of the equation.
Institutional demand is already showing up.
Bitwise buyers added around $10.5 million worth of HYPE on September 4 after several days without purchases.
That was roughly 123500 HYPE at an average price near $85.
Cumulative purchases by those investors have reached around $166.3 million.
But even this is not enough to absorb the full October unlock by itself.
The difference is important.
Institutional buying can create a buffer.
It cannot completely remove the risk from a large contributor distribution.
Then there is the internal demand created by Hyperliquid itself.
Around $859500 in fees generated roughly $823800 in HYPE directed revenue over the last 24 hours.
That money was used to buy around 9730 HYPE.
Those tokens were then permanently burned.
This is different from normal buying because the tokens are removed from the available supply.
Lifetime HYPE burns have now reached around 48.42 million tokens.
That is still only 4.84 percent of the maximum supply.
So the burns are meaningful over time but they are nowhere near large enough to cancel a $860 million unlock immediately.
This is why October could become a real supply and demand test.
If contributor wallets keep holding while institutional demand continues and protocol activity stays strong then the market may absorb the new supply better than the headline suggests.
But if contributors start selling heavily at the same time demand slows then HYPE could face serious pressure.
For me the key signal is not the unlock date itself.
It is what those unlocked tokens actually do afterward.
Tokens sitting in wallets are one thing.
Tokens moving toward the market are another.
October will show us which one this really is.

The number that caught my attention is not the amount stolen.
It is how different these attacks were.
Within just 12 hours the crypto market saw four separate security threats. Each one used a different weakness and that tells me something important about the current risk.
The first involved a malicious governance proposal targeting Olas.
Around 40.196 ETH worth roughly $100000 was placed at risk.
The attacker used an ENS name that looked connected to the project and disguised the proposal as a normal treasury ownership migration.
But executing it would have moved treasury control to an attacker controlled contract.
This is the kind of attack that can look completely normal if someone only reads the proposal title.
Then another issue appeared on Reddio.
A cross vault accounting flaw reportedly caused stETH to be counted twice as backing for different assets.
The estimated loss was around 9.25 ETH.
The bigger concern was that the flaw could potentially be abused through a flash loan to create artificial value and withdraw excess ETH.
At the same time another threat was targeting ordinary wallet users.
A theft toolkit was reportedly being sold that focused on Ledger and Trezor users.
The important part is that this was not about breaking the hardware itself.
The attack relied on social engineering and fake transaction signing requests.
A user could believe they were approving a normal transaction while actually giving permission for a malicious transfer.
Then came another social media attack.
Base co founder Jesse Pollak warned that a compromised third party app connected to his social account was used to post scam content.
The access was later removed.
And this happened around the same time as the compromised Neuralink related account that pushed the SLINK memecoin.
That case showed how powerful one trusted reaction can be.
Elon Musk replied to the post and traders treated that reaction as confirmation.
The token then surged before crashing more than 95 percent.
Looking at all four cases together gives me a different view of crypto security.
The biggest weakness is not always smart contract code.
Sometimes it is governance.
Sometimes it is accounting.
Sometimes it is a wallet signature.
Sometimes it is simply trust.
DeFiLlama data cited in the report puts losses between September 2025 and September 2026 at around $1.732 billion.
That is a serious number.
But there is also an important comparison.
H1 2025 reportedly lost around $2.3 billion while H1 2026 crossed $1 billion.
So 2026 is not automatically worse than 2025 yet.
For me the lesson is simple.
Never approve a governance proposal just because the name looks familiar.
Never sign a transaction you do not fully understand.
Never treat a celebrity reaction as proof that a token is legitimate.
And never assume a connected social account is safe just because it belongs to someone you trust.
Crypto gives users control over their money.
That also means users have to verify what they are signing before that control becomes someone else’s.