Halving2024

​📈 Current Status and Role of $90K
​Key Pivot/Barrier: The $90,000 level has frequently been mentioned as a significant psychological barrier and a pivot zone or neutrality level.
​Contested Support: In recent volatility, Bitcoin has dipped below $90,000 but has often seen a quick bounce back, indicating that it is a demand zone where buyers step in.
​Some analysts note that the $90,000 to $93,000 range has functioned as a major support/pivot area.
​📉 Critical Support Levels Below $90K
​While $90,000 is important, analysts have identified several more established or "final" support levels below it that would be more critical if the price breaks down:
​Mid-Term Support: The $85,000 area has been highlighted as a solid mid-term support, with some charts aligning the 50-period EMA or previous consolidation points near this level.
​Final Short-Term Support: The $80,300 - $84,000 range is often cited as a crucial support zone. A sustained break below $84,000 could open the path toward deeper supports.
​Key Long-Term Support: Deeper supports are identified around $75,000 and the broader $69,000–$72,000 range.
​⬆️ Key Resistance Levels Above $90K
​If Bitcoin can firmly hold and establish $90,000 as support, the focus shifts to overhead resistance:
​Immediate Resistance: The $91,400 to $93,000 zone is considered the next immediate resistance level.

​📊 Immediate & Short-Term Support
​These are the levels Bitcoin is currently interacting with or has recently bounced from:
​$92,000 - $93,000: This zone is frequently cited as a major support and a pivot area, often coinciding with moving averages (like the 5-day and 10-day MAs) and short-term trendlines.
​$91,500 - $92,000: An immediate support area, including the 1st Pivot Point Support level on some charts.
​$89,000 - $90,000: The current weekly lows and a significant psychological level. A break below this could signal further downside in the short term.
​🛡️ Mid-Term Support
​These are stronger levels that, if held, could prevent a significant correction:
​$85,000: A key mid-term support area that has acted as a floor in recent price action.
​$83,000 - $84,000: The 1st Support Level on some longer-term charts.
​🧱 Long-Term & Critical Support
​These are the most critical levels, and a break below them would suggest a major shift in market structure:
​$72,000 - $75,000:

Benefits of Diversification
​✅ Risk Reduction: It lessens the impact of poor performance in any single investment on your overall portfolio.
​✅ Smoother Returns: By combining assets that perform differently, you reduce the overall volatility (big swings) in your portfolio.
​✅ Enhanced Risk-Adjusted Returns: You aim to achieve the best possible return for the level of risk you are taking.

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Bitcoin vs Gold battle 🧨
​🤝 The Middle Ground: Diversification
​Many investors choose not to pick one over the other. A diversified portfolio often allocates a portion to both:
​Gold acts as the traditional safe haven and a hedge against systemic risk.
​Bitcoin acts as the high-growth, speculative component that provides exposure to technological innovation.

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to @Coin_Bureau january fears 🆘️⛔️🆘️

​🚀 Key Drivers of Demand
​Institutional Adoption and ETFs: The approval and success of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products (ETFs) in major jurisdictions (like the US) have opened a significant new channel for traditional institutional and retail investors. This is widely considered a major source of new demand.
​Limited Supply: Bitcoin's supply is hard-capped at 21 million coins, and the rate of new issuance is cut in half approximately every four years (an event known as the "Halving"). This scarcity is a fundamental driver of its value and demand, especially as the circulating supply approaches the limit.
​Macroeconomic Environment: Bitcoin is often viewed as a "risk-on" asset, meaning its demand can increase when investors anticipate a more relaxed monetary policy from central banks (like the US Federal Reserve) or when they seek exposure to assets that are not tied to traditional fiat currencies.
​Risk Appetite: A general shift in market sentiment from "risk-off" (seeking safe-haven assets) to "risk-on" (seeking higher-growth, volatile assets) fuels demand for Bitcoin.
​📈 Other Influencing Factors
​Retail Interest: Growing activity and the number of active Bitcoin addresses suggest increasing participation from individual (retail) investors.
​Digital Gold/Inflation Hedge: Many view Bitcoin as a store of value or "digital gold," which can drive demand during times of economic uncertainty or fear of currency debasement.
​Regulatory Clarity: More favorable or clearer regulations—such as those enabling registered investment vehicles like ETFs—reduce uncertainty and increase confidence, boosting institutional demand.
​Market Structure Shifts: The movement of Bitcoin off exchanges into self-custody or into the hands of ETF custodians reduces the readily available supply for trading, which can intensify buying pressure.

Based on recent market analysis, the $96,000 level has been identified as a significant technical point, often acting as a key resistance or a former support that has since been lost.
​Here's a breakdown of why this level is considered critical:
​Higher Time Frame Structural Shift (BOS): A decisive daily close above $96,000 is often seen as the necessary confirmation for a complete, higher-time-frame shift to a bullish trend structure. Clearing it signifies more than just a temporary bounce.
​Previous Support/Resistance Flip: Before recent dips, the $96,000 level may have functioned as a key support. Once a key support is broken and price falls below it, that same level often flips to become a strong resistance when the price attempts to move back up.
​Liquidity and Supply Area: There are likely dense clusters of sell orders (supply) between $93,000 and $96,000, and breaking through this area requires substantial buying pressure (demand).
​Target Expansion: Analysts suggest that once Bitcoin successfully reclaims and holds $96,000 on a daily closing basis, the immediate upward target area often expands toward the next major psychological and technical zones, such as $102,000 – $107,000.

Based on recent market analysis, the $90,000 to $93,000 zone has been a critical level for Bitcoin on the daily and other higher timeframes.
​Here's a breakdown of the perspective around this level:
​Critical Pivot/Resistance: Recent analysis suggests this area is currently acting as a significant resistance or pivot zone. A sustained break and hold above $93,000 is often cited as a key indicator for a potential shift back to stronger bullish momentum and a move towards the next resistance levels, such as the $98,000 to $100,000 area.
​Reclaiming the Zone: Some reports indicate that Bitcoin has been attempting to reclaim the $89,000 to $93,000 range, which is seen as a mid-range demand zone on the daily chart. Successfully holding this level would lend credence to a short-term bullish recovery.
​Trend Reversal Test: For a significant, higher-timeframe bullish momentum restart (reversing a recent downtrend), a clean break above a descending channel and a weekly close above $100,000 is often viewed as necessary. The $93,000 level is the immediate test before that.
​Potential Pullback: If Bitcoin is rejected at or around the $93,000 level, it could lead to a pullback toward lower support zones, potentially $88,000 or even re-testing the $80,000 critical support.
​In summary, the $93,000 level is a pivotal resistance point where many traders and analysts are looking for a decisive break to confirm a continuation of bullish momentum on the daily timeframe.

Bullish Engulfing pattern on the daily timeframe for Bitcoin is generally considered a significant indication.
​Here is a breakdown of what this means and its implications for Bitcoin:
​📈 What is a Bullish Engulfing Pattern?
​A Bullish Engulfing pattern is a two-candlestick reversal pattern that typically appears at the bottom of a downtrend.
​First Candle (Bearish): A small bearish (red) candle is formed, confirming the selling pressure of the prior trend.
​Second Candle (Bullish): A large bullish (green) candle forms. Crucially, its real body (the space between the open and close) completely engulfs the real body of the previous bearish candle.
​This pattern suggests a powerful shift in market sentiment from sellers (bears) to buyers (bulls). The fact that the daily candle opened lower than the previous day's close and closed significantly higher demonstrates that buyers decisively took control and overwhelmed the sellers.
​🚀 Significance on the Daily Timeframe
​The daily chart is a major timeframe for technical analysis.
​Stronger Signal: Patterns observed on higher timeframes (like the daily or weekly) are generally considered much more reliable than those on smaller timeframes (like 1-hour or 15-minute).
​Trend Reversal Potential: If this pattern appeared after a clear downtrend or near a major support level, it is a key signal for a potential long-term bullish reversal for Bitcoin.
​Increased Buyer Confidence: The pattern shows that bulls aggressively bought the dip throughout the day, closing the price higher than the previous day's open, indicating strong conviction.
​📊 How Traders Interpret This Signal
​Traders use this pattern to plan potential long entries:
​Entry: A common entry point would be confirming the pattern by entering a long position once the price moves above the high of the second (engulfing) candle.
​Stop-Loss (Risk Management): The stop-loss is often placed below the low of the second (engulfing) candle to manage risk, as a move below this point would invalidate the bullish signal.
​

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A Bullish Divergence on the daily timeframe for Bitcoin (BTC) is a significant signal often interpreted as a potential warning sign that the prevailing bearish trend or downward price move is losing momentum, and a reversal to the upside might be imminent.
​📉 Key Components of a Bullish Divergence
​The pattern involves a conflict between the asset's price action and a momentum oscillator (like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), MACD, or Stochastic Oscillator).
​Price Action: The price of Bitcoin makes a Lower Low (LL).
​Interpretation: Sellers are still in control, pushing the price down.
​Momentum Indicator (e.g., RSI): The oscillator makes a Higher Low (HL).
​Interpretation: Despite the lower price, the internal selling pressure or momentum is actually weakening and starting to turn up. This suggests that the bears are exhausted.
​🗓️ Why the Daily Timeframe Matters
​A divergence observed on the Daily Timeframe carries more weight than one on a shorter timeframe (like 1-hour or 4-hour charts).
​Higher Significance: Signals on higher timeframes are generally more reliable as they filter out market noise and reflect broader, longer-term investor sentiment.
​Implied Duration: A daily bullish divergence suggests that the potential trend reversal or significant upward bounce could play out over weeks or months, not just hours or a few days.
​⚠️ Important Considerations
​Confirmation is Key: A divergence is a warning or early signal, not an automatic entry point. Traders typically wait for a confirmation of the trend reversal, such as:
​The price breaking above a key resistance level.
​The price closing back above a significant moving average (e.g., the 20-day or 50-day EMA).
​The momentum oscillator crossing a key signal line or moving decisively higher.
​Use Multiple Indicators: It's best practice to use divergences in confluence with other technical factors, like support levels, trend lines, volume analysis, or other chart patterns (like a double bottom).
​

Implications of QT Ending
​Confirmation that QT is over means the Fed is halting the reduction of its balance sheet. This signals a major shift in monetary policy, often anticipating or coinciding with the end of an interest rate hike cycle.
​📈 Market Reaction
​Positive for Stocks (Equities):
​Looser Financial Conditions: More liquidity (cash) remaining in the banking system is generally good for asset prices.
​Lower Discount Rate: Lower long-term interest rate expectations mean future corporate profits are discounted at a lower rate, increasing present-day valuations.
​Risk Appetite: Increased investor confidence that the worst of the monetary tightening is over, leading to greater appetite for riskier assets.
​Positive for Bonds (Fixed Income):
​Lower Supply: The Fed is no longer allowing a large quantity of Treasuries to roll off its balance sheet, which means less net supply of bonds coming into the market. This supports bond prices and helps keep long-term yields stable or lower.
​U.S. Dollar (USD) Weakness:
​The end of tightening can decrease the attractiveness of U.S. assets relative to other countries, potentially leading to a weaker U.S. dollar (as capital flows out).
​💰 Economic Impact
​Credit Conditions Ease: Banks have more reserves, making them more willing to lend, which can stimulate borrowing and economic activity.
​Potential for Lower Mortgage Rates: Since long-term bond yields are often influenced by the Fed's actions on its balance sheet, ending QT can lead to a relief in yields, helping to reduce mortgage and other long-term borrowing rates.
​Inflation Concerns (Long-term): While initially positive, a prolonged period of easy money and increasing liquidity could potentially reignite inflationary pressures down the line.
​🔄 The Next Step: Quantitative Easing (QE)
​If the economy were to slow down significantly, the next logical step after the end of QT would be to start Quantitative Easing (QE), which is the exact opposite:
​