CryptoQuant Quicktake

Data from the Bitcoin Trend Strength & Structure Index on Binance indicates that the market is currently experiencing a phase of structural weakness, with price declining toward the $70,000 level and trading below the 50-day moving average, while remaining at a notable distance from the 200-day moving average. This reflects a loss of bullish momentum that had dominated over the previous months.

The chart shows the short-term moving average (MA50) near $87,000, while the long-term moving average (MA200) is around $102,000—a relatively wide gap that suggests the broader trend is still in a corrective phase. This type of technical structure is often classified as a repricing phase, where the market retests potential demand zones following a strong rally.

At the same time, the price Z-Score is posting a negative reading of around -1.6, indicating that price is trading below its statistical mean over the medium term. This reflects selling pressure and exhaustion in the prior uptrend. Historically, when this indicator enters negative territory, it has coincided with periods of increased caution and reduced leverage usage, before the market begins forming a more solid price base.

From a behavioral perspective, these conditions reflect a shift by traders from pursuing quick returns to focusing on capital preservation and risk reduction. They also suggest that smart money may prefer to wait for clearer signals of trend recovery, such as price stabilizing above the 50-day moving average and then attempting to reclaim the 200-day moving average.

Written by Arab Chain

Recent collateral composition data shows that Bitcoin remains the dominant strategy for borrowers. This shows that Bitcoin is not only for remittances, or trading, but also for lending and borrowing. Nexo clients treat Bitcoin as pristine collateral.

The data included is a chart of Collateral Composition (%) for each quarter. It’s specifically data for Nexo. It shows that borrowers aren’t rotating into BTC for short-term speculation. They’re using Bitcoin as long-term collateral to access liquidity without selling.

Key takeaways:

- BTC consistently holds ~54–60% share of total collateral

- Even as the market corrected, Bitcoin dominance increased to 56.2% in Q1 2026.

- Credit demand aligns with conviction, not trading activity

It’s a key evidence that Bitcoin is more than a crypto to trade. It’s the asset people trust to back their credit.

Written by maartunn

While Bitcoin price action remains bearish, dropping to the $69K range, on-chain data from Binance reveals a significant shift in investor behavior. A massive divergence has formed between the falling price and the average size of withdrawals from the exchange.

Key Data Points

The 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-14) of Exchange Outflow (Mean) on Binance has witnessed a vertical spike.

January 28: The indicator was hovering around 6 BTC.

February 8: It surged to 13.3 BTC.

Significance: This represents the highest average outflow size recorded since November 2024.

On-Chain Analysis

Whale Activity Indicator: The “Mean Outflow” metric represents the average amount of Bitcoin withdrawn per transaction. A sharp increase in this value—doubling in just 10 days—strongly suggests that whales and institutional players are dominating the withdrawal activity, rather than retail investors.

Buying the Dip: Large entities are seizing the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices (approx. $69K). The timing of these large withdrawals, coinciding with the price crash, indicates high conviction among smart money investors.

Supply Shock: Moving coins off the largest exchange (Binance) to cold storage reduces the immediate sell-side pressure and decreases the liquid supply available on the order books.

Conclusion

The market is currently witnessing a classic “accumulation during capitulation” scenario. While sentiment is fearful, the sharp rise in the Mean Exchange Outflow confirms that large-scale investors are aggressively buying and withdrawing Bitcoin, signaling potential support formation at these levels.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Chainlink investors need to watch out! After a brief recovery from $7.19, a massive 19% spike in exchange inflows today suggests the bears are back. This mirror-image of the late January sell-off warns that if $7.19 fails to hold, we could be staring down a flush to $5.00 as speculative pressure peaks.

But don’t let the short-term noise fool you; the odds suggest the whales are waiting, and a possible dip again could be part of a bigger strategy for them. 🐋

While retail is still in panic mode, the "Smart Money" is locked in on the aim:

As the data shows, we saw Zero ETF Outflows: Since launch, the LINK ETF hasn't seen a single day of outflows.

Its official website metrics data show that Unstoppable Utility: Oracles has now facilitated a staggering $28.02 trillion in transactions, and the graph continues to rise.

Strategic Reserves: Revenue-funded reserves continue to climb, securing the network’s future.

The current dip is a classic "shakeout" before the next leg up. Are you going to dump your bags into the whales' mouths or follow the institutional lead? The possible $5 dip could be an ideal entry zone for smart money seeking the most discounted price on LINK, and it might also be the ultimate generational entry point for investors.

Note:- not a FA before entering any position, DYOR well.

Written by TopNotchYJ

The chart highlights several important periods.

During March-April 2025, whale to exchange flow remained very low while price showed weak reactions. Whales were not selling, supply tightened, and this was followed by a sharp rally in July 2025.

In June-July 2025, while the ratio was still near historical lows, the initial rally began. As price moved higher, profit-taking followed, and whale flow spiked near the peak, signaling distribution.

During December 2025 January 2026, the ratio again stayed very low while price continued to decline. Selling pressure during this period was mainly driven by retail investors, not whales.

Currently, Whale to Exchange Flow remains near historical lows, while price has dropped sharply to around $1.42. This decline is not accompanied by sustained whale selling. Panic selling is largely coming from smaller investors, while whales appear to be waiting for better opportunities.

Based on historical behavior, price may continue to move sideways or slightly lower in the short term as volatility decreases. This could be followed by sudden, low-volume upside wicks. When a real rally begins, whale selling is likely to appear, potentially leading to deeper pullbacks.

Tracking this metric specifically on Binance is critical. Binance has the highest spot and derivatives volume in XRP and the deepest order books. It is the primary trading venue for whales and institutions. While other exchanges may reflect transfers or wallet movements, the capital that truly moves price is concentrated on Binance.

In summary, Binance Whale to Exchange Flow measures action, not expectation, and acts as a leading indicator by capturing behavior before price reacts.

Written by PelinayPA

BTC is still facing strong selling pressure in the derivatives market.

The Net Taker Volume, on a monthly average basis, has turned negative again. After a period of calm between November and January, when buyers briefly regained some control (~$36M), we are now back to clear selling dominance, reaching -$272M today.

On Binance, for example, the exchange that concentrates a large share of trading volumes, the taker buy sell ratio fell from 1 to 0.97 over the same period, reinforcing this negative trend.

What is particularly concerning is the gradual acceleration of this trend, which will require even stronger spot demand to counterbalance it.

Futures volumes continue to drive the market given the gap with spot volumes and ETF inflows.

Considering the current environment and the key macro data closely watched by all markets (CPI and the unemployment rate), caution is warranted as this recent rebound still looks fragile.

Written by Darkfost

The Ethereum market is currently witnessing a stark divergence between price action and on-chain network activity, signaling a potential capitulation event.

Key Observations

According to the attached chart, as the price of Ethereum corrected sharply from the $3,000 level down to the $2,000 range, the network experienced a massive surge in token movement.

The 14-day Moving Average (SMA-14) of Total Tokens Transferred has gone parabolic. It spiked from approximately 1.6 million on January 29 to 2.75 million on February 7. This marks the highest level recorded for this metric since August 2025.

On-Chain Interpretation

Panic Selling & Rotation: This significant spike in ERC-20 token transfers during a price crash suggests investors are rushing to exit positions, likely converting volatile assets into stablecoins or moving funds to exchanges for liquidation.

Capitulation Signal: Historically, such extreme spikes in transfer velocity (Velocity) during bearish price action indicate the “flushing out” of weak hands. The market is processing a massive volume of sell-side pressure in a very short window.

DeFi Cascade: Given that this metric tracks tokens, a portion of this surge is likely attributed to a cascade of liquidations and collateral shifts across DeFi protocols triggered by the price drop.

Conclusion

The market is currently in a state of peak fear. However, historically, when token transfer activity creates a “blow-off top” like this during a downtrend, it often signals that the intense selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, potentially setting the stage for a local bottom formation.

Written by CryptoOnchain

On-chain data indicates a notable surge in Bitcoin miners’ activity since the beginning of February, with their inflows to Binance surpassing 90,000 BTC during this period—an important development that reflects a meaningful shift in the behavior of this influential market segment. The data also shows that miners’ activity has reached its highest level since 2024, including a single day that recorded deposits exceeding 24,000 BTC, an exceptional figure highlighting the strong pace of these movements.

Miner inflows to exchanges are typically viewed as a signal of a potential increase in sell-side supply, as miners deposit part of their production to cover operating costs or to realize profits following periods of price volatility. In this context, the large volume of inflows during February may suggest that miners are taking advantage of current price levels to liquidate a portion of their holdings or rebalance their portfolios after extended holding periods.

Notably, this rise in miner activity comes within a market environment characterized by clear volatility and reduced risk appetite among segments of traders, which could add an extra layer of short-term selling pressure. However, these inflows do not necessarily indicate the start of a prolonged downtrend, but rather may represent a natural redistribution phase within the market cycle.

From a historical perspective, markets have previously experienced elevated miner inflows to exchanges during periods of correction or sideways consolidation, and such phases have often preceded stabilization followed by a gradual return of momentum. Moreover, sustained high miner activity also reflects that the network is operating efficiently and that production remains strong—factors that support Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals.

Written by Arab Chain

The landslide victory of Sanae Takaichi marks Japan’s shift toward aggressive fiscal stimulus and tolerance for currency depreciation. The “Takaichi Trade” has lifted the Nikkei to record highs while reshaping global capital flows.

Analyst GugaOnChain notes this is not a direct capital flight from U.S. assets, but a global portfolio rebalancing. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), long sidelined by ultra-low yields, are regaining appeal amid fiscal expansion and reflation expectations, absorbing incremental capital and slowing inflows into U.S. equity ETFs.

U.S. equities have entered a correction. Over the past seven days, the Nasdaq fell 5.59%, the S&P 500 declined 2.65%, and the Russell 2000 dropped 2.6%, reflecting tighter liquidity and macro reassessment. Dollar strength—driven by yen weakness, persistent U.S.–Japan rate differentials, and risk-off demand—has further tightened financial conditions.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin faces short-term downside risk. In risk-off phases, BTC tends to correlate with U.S. equities, allowing equity-led de-risking to spill into crypto markets. This pressure does not reflect deterioration in Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals, but cross-asset risk management.

CryptoQuant’s cross-asset indicators support this view, showing that simultaneous equity corrections increase the likelihood of BTC downside even without on-chain weakness. Recent declines reflect equity-driven position unwinds, not long-term holder capitulation.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, the outlook diverges. After the February 8 Lower House election delivered a two-thirds majority, Japan gained a favorable environment for legislative reform. The Takaichi administration has positioned Web3 as an industrial growth sector, with tax reform and stablecoin regulation likely to become structural tailwinds.

In short, near-term pressure on U.S. equities and Bitcoin is macro-driven, while Japan’s institutional reforms may support crypto markets longer term.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Recently, a large amount of Bitcoin has been deposited into exchanges, bringing the total exchange-held supply back to levels seen around 2019. Of course, it should be noted that a significant portion of this Bitcoin is owned by investors who are simply holding their assets on exchanges.

In contrast, Ethereum—despite being launched in 2015—currently has an exchange-held supply comparable to levels from mid-2016. The red box represents the current amount of Ethereum held on exchanges, while the blue box indicates the same spot supply level observed in mid-2016. Considering that most of this Ethereum is also investor-owned, it remains an open question whether such low exchange balances can be sustained over time. This is something that warrants close and ongoing monitoring.

Although Ethereum’s OTC balance has increased recently, it remains relatively small when compared to the amount held on exchanges.

If Ethereum balances on exchanges were to suddenly dry up, followed by the depletion of OTC supply as well, it raises a compelling question: what kind of market dynamics would emerge in such a scenario?

Written by CoinNiel

Since the start of this cycle, one category of investors has been noticeably less active than in previous cycles. These are retail investors. Their activity steadily declined as the cycle progressed.

On this chart, they are represented by holders of less than 1 BTC, commonly referred to as shrimps. This group, historically very sensitive to price movements, remained relatively on the sidelines during a large part of the market’s advance.

The sharp decline seen in recent days marked a change in behavior. The sudden drop in Bitcoin’s price was associated by a visible increase in their activity, measured here through inflows to Binance.

This correction appears to have triggered a wave of panic among these small investors, who rushed to transfer their BTC to Binance, a highly accessible platform that concentrates a large share of this group’s activity.

On February 5, inflows from shrimps to Binance exceeded 1,000 BTC in a single day, while their monthly average was closer to 365 BTC.

Such a spike had not been seen since July 2025, when Bitcoin was still advancing toward new all time highs.

This comparison is notable because it shows that similar volumes can appear both during euphoric phases and during periods of stress, although driven by very different behaviours.

The start of this month has clearly put investors under pressure. Rising volatility increases psychological stress and encourages impulsive decisions that can lead to capitulation.

However, the market quickly showed signs of stabilization. After a brief move below $60,000, Bitcoin rebounded and is now trading again around $71,000.

This partial recovery has helped calm retail investors. Their flows to exchanges have gradually returned to their monthly average, leading to a meaningful reduction in selling pressure coming from this segment of the market.

Written by Darkfost

Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in the Japanese elections ushers in a phase of strong fiscal stimulus and currency depreciation that already reverberates beyond the archipelago. The so‑called Takaichi Trade not only drives the Nikkei to historic highs but also reshapes global capital flows, pushing investors toward Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) and triggering the consequent strengthening of the dollar. This scenario increases the likelihood of corrections in U.S. indexes — Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 — which, due to their existing correlation, are likely to drag Bitcoin down in the short term. By pursuing domestic growth, Japan ends up redefining the balance of risk in global markets.

THE IMPACTS

◾Capital flows → JGBs drain resources from U.S. ETFs.

◾Indexes → Nasdaq and S&P 500 may fall 1–2%; Russell 2000 up to 2.5%.

◾Dollar → A stronger currency makes it harder for companies with dollar‑denominated debt.

◾BTC → Positive correlation with indexes suggests short‑term decline.

CONCLUSION

The Takaichi Trade strengthens Japan but puts pressure on the U.S. and Bitcoin. The capital flight to JGBs and a robust dollar create an environment of inevitable adjustments, requiring investors to closely monitor the correlation between U.S. indexes and crypto assets.

Written by GugaOnChain

Data on Ethereum reserves on Binance shows a notable decline in the amount of ETH held on the exchange, with reserves falling to around 3.7 million ETH, marking the lowest level since 2024. This development reflects an important shift in the behavior of Ethereum holders and provides insight into deeper changes in supply and demand dynamics.

Exchange reserves are one of the key indicators of available spot-market supply. When reserves decline, it usually means that a growing portion of coins is being withdrawn to private wallets or deployed into staking, lending, or DeFi protocols, reducing the amount readily available for selling. Historically, such periods have often been associated with easing sell pressure and a gradual shift toward long-term holding behavior.

Notably, this drop in Binance’s ETH reserves comes as Ethereum trades near the $2,080 level, a price zone that suggests relative stabilization after months of heightened volatility. The combination of falling reserves and relatively stable prices may point to a phase of quiet accumulation, where investors are removing their assets from exchanges in preparation for longer-term storage rather than short-term trading.

From a behavioral standpoint, declining ETH balances on major exchanges reflect rising long-term confidence in the Ethereum network and its future outlook, especially given ongoing developments across decentralized finance, scaling solutions, and on-chain applications. Lower exchange reserves also reduce the likelihood of sudden large-scale sell-offs triggered by heavy inflows to trading platforms

Written by Arab Chain

The chart shows that Binance has consistently held a dominant 65-80% market share, meaning the capital that truly moves prices in both spot and derivatives markets is concentrated on Binance. While volume on other exchanges has increased over time, this growth supports the market rather than reshaping it.

In 2023, Binance’s dominance was especially clear, with other exchanges mainly serving retail investors and regional platforms. This resulted in cleaner price action and stronger trends. In 2024, capital began to disperse, but Binance did not lose control its leadership remained intact, particularly in derivatives trading.

During 2025–2026, other exchanges experienced occasional volume spikes, but these failed to form sustainable trends. In contrast, Binance consistently attracted liquidity during every major market move. Although the market attempts to become multi-centered, capital flows back to Binance during periods of stress or uncertainty.

High Binance dominance reflects higher leverage and aggressive positioning, while growth on other exchanges is more spot driven and risk-averse. Investors take risk on Binance and reduce risk elsewhere, which is why major volatility events originate from Binance, while weaker or false rallies are often seen when other exchanges dominate.

Overall, rising Binance dominance leads to stronger trends and higher volatility. In bear markets and crises, liquidity returns to Binance, confirming that real capital institutions and whales continues to concentrate in one place.

Written by PelinayPA

This decline led whales to buy massive amounts of $BTC.

They then withdrew that $BTC to their accumulator addresses.

On February 6th, 66.94k $BTC inflowed to accumulator addresses. This was the largest inflow amount in this cycle.

Written by CW8900

The past few days have been particularly tough for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. On February 6, BTC fell back below the $60,000 level, a threshold that had not been revisited since October 2024. At the same time, the market recorded a sharp correction, with a drawdown exceeding 50% from the last all time high. This abrupt return to lower price levels reignited investor anxiety.

The acceleration of this correction created a clear fear driven dynamic. Many participants chose to move their BTC onto exchanges, fueling an already intense wave of liquidations. Unsurprisingly, Short Term Holders were the first to react emotionally. On Binance, that concentrates a large share of the flows, BTC inflows coming from these STHs (7d-sum) exceeded 100,000 BTC on February 6 alone and outpacing April 2025 correction.

Such volumes point to a form of capitulation and highlight the major role this group of investors played in the selling pressure at the time.

Between February 4 and February 6, nearly 241,000 BTC were sent to various exchanges. When flows of that magnitude converge on trading platforms, it is hard to interpret them as anything other than a dominant intent to sell. This wave of massive deposits further intensified an already elevated level of market volatility.

A similar pattern was visible on Coinbase Advanced, a platform widely used by institutions, active traders, and professional desks. On that same day, February 6, BTC inflows reached roughly 27,000 BTC, marking a clear spike in activity. This suggests that the nervousness was not limited to retail investors but also spread to more sophisticated market participants.

This episode illustrates how a rapid correction phase can amplify panic driven behavior and trigger capitulation events. These capitulation moves have pushed BTC into an extreme oversold zone that the market will now need time to absorb and digest.

Written by Darkfost

Concerns have spread in parts of the market that Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) could fail in the current cycle. Bitcoin is presently in a corrective rebound within a broader bearish phase, where downside risk remains conditionally dominant. In such environments, corporate risk tied to price volatility is often overstated.

However, a review of public financial disclosures and CryptoQuant on-chain data suggests that linking short-term BTC price declines directly to an imminent financial crisis at Strategy requires caution. The most important on-chain observation is that Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have not declined. As shown by the “Amount Held” chart, BTC holdings have steadily increased since 2020, reaching roughly 670,000 BTC, with no evidence of forced selling or liquidity-driven outflows even during sharp drawdowns.

The “Total Investment vs Current Value (TotalPaid_WorthCurrently)” chart further clarifies this structure. While the market value of holdings fluctuates significantly with BTC price, cumulative investment continues to rise in a stepwise manner. This indicates that Strategy has not reduced exposure in response to short-term losses, reinforcing that its strategy is built on long-term capital structure rather than near-term liquidity management.

From a balance sheet perspective, BTC holdings are estimated at $49–59B against liabilities of roughly $8.2B, providing a substantial asset buffer. With about $2.25B in cash and most debt maturities concentrated after 2027–2028, near-term repayment pressure appears limited. Notably, Strategy already endured the 2021–2022 bear market, when BTC traded well below its average cost for over a year without triggering large on-chain outflows.

Risks remain if prolonged price weakness coincides with deteriorating capital market conditions. Still, at present, bankruptcy fears appear more sentiment-driven than structurally supported, unless on-chain holdings or financial conditions materially change.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

📰 Daily Market Update:

The funding rate is one of the most important “sentiment indicators” in crypto derivatives.

📊 [ETH] Funding Rate by Exchange

Funding rates are periodic fees exchanged between traders in perpetual futures markets to keep contract prices close to the spot market.

📈 Positive funding (+)

Occurs when futures prices trade above spot prices.

Long positions pay shorts.

This reflects market optimism and long dominance.

📉 Negative funding (–)

Occurs when futures prices trade below spot prices.

Shorts pay longs.

This reflects fear or bearish positioning.

⚠️ When funding reaches extreme levels, either positive or negative, it becomes fuel for liquidations.

If everyone is positioned in one direction, even a small move against the crowd can trigger forced closures and sharp price reactions.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 BitMEX funding rate surged to an extreme positive level of 0.049%, a level not seen since October.

📈 This value exceeded the late-October peak near 0.03%, marking a clear escalation in leverage on the long side.

🔎 Looking specifically at Binance, the largest derivatives venue by volume:

📈ETH funding moved from deep negative cooling levels of –0.025% on February 5

📈 Back toward neutral territory at the time of writing.

📌 This transition suggests a clear shift in derivatives positioning, where long positions are now dominating new open interest, replacing short exposure that previously controlled the market.

🧠 Final Conclusion

⏲️ Historically, strongly positive funding driven by leverage expansion has not favored sustained upside, but instead increased the probability of sharp corrective moves.

Written by Amr Taha

The Mayer Multiple just dropped to 0.6 — meaning Bitcoin is trading at 60% of its 200-day moving average. This level of statistical deviation from trend has only occurred during severe capitulation phases.

📊 What This Measures

The Mayer Multiple is deceptively simple: current price divided by 200-day moving average. But what it captures is powerful — the degree to which price has deviated from its long-term trend.

A reading of 1.0 means price equals the 200-day MA. Above 1.0 means premium to trend. Below 1.0 means discount.

Key thresholds:

Above 2.4: Historically overbought (bubble territory)

1.0-1.5: Normal bull market range

0.8-1.0: Discount to trend (accumulation zone)

Below 0.8: Statistically oversold (capitulation)

Current reading: 0.6 — price is 40% below its long-term trend. This isn't a small dip. This is statistical extreme.

🔍 Historical Precedent

Mayer Multiple below 0.7 has occurred only during major capitulation events:

→ Dec 2018 (0.5-0.6): Bear market bottom at $3,200. 12-month outcome: +340%

→ Mar 2020 (0.5): COVID crash. 12-month outcome: +1,100%

→ Nov 2022 (0.5-0.6): FTX collapse bottom. 12-month outcome: +170%

→ Now (0.6): Current reading

Every prior instance of Mayer Multiple this low marked a clear capitulation.

📈 Why This Matters

When price deviates 40% below its 200-day average, the market is pricing in worst-case scenarios that historically don't materialize for extended periods.

The Mayer Multiple doesn't predict exact bottoms. It identifies statistical extremes where risk/reward shifts meaningfully.

⏳ What This Doesn't Guarantee

→ Precise timing (bottoms can take 2-8 weeks to form)

→ No further downside (can easily overshoot to 0.5 in panic)

→ Immediate reversal (consolidation often follows)

Current setup: 40% discount to trend, matching only the most severe historical capitulation phases.

Written by RugaResearch

The Sharpe ratio has just entered a particularly interesting zone, one that has historically aligned with the final phases of bear markets.

This is not a signal that the bear market is over, but rather that we are approaching a point where the risk to reward profile is becoming extreme.

In practical terms, the risk associated with investing in BTC remains high relative to the returns recently observed.

The ratio is still deteriorating, showing that BTC’s performance is not yet attractive compared to the risk being taken.

But this type of dynamic is precisely what tends to appear near market turning zones. We are gradually approaching an area where this trend has historically reversed.

The Sharpe ratio should almost be used in a contrarian way. It is a metric that reflects the consequences of market evolution, not a cause. In other words, it highlights that recent returns on BTC have been poor and continue to be so.

As a result, many investors are under water or under pressure, which often corresponds to phases where long term opportunities begin to emerge.

From here, two main approaches can be considered.

The first is to start building exposure gradually, step by step, as the ratio moves closer to zones historically associated with lower risk.

The second is to wait for the Sharpe ratio to clearly improve before increasing exposure.

It is important to stay realistic about timing.

This phase may last several more months, and BTC could continue correcting before a true reversal takes place. The signal is structurally constructive, but it needs time to develop.

There is no rush.

Written by Darkfost