CryptoQuant Quicktake

Data from Binance shows a significant improvement in the Bitcoin Log Cycle Z-Score, which measures Bitcoin’s price position relative to its long-term historical trend The index rose to approximately -0.20, marking its highest level since November 2025. This recovery comes after the index experienced a significant decline in recent months, falling to levels below -3.
A value of -0.20 indicates that the index remains in negative territory but is now very close to the zero level, reflecting a clear improvement in Bitcoin’s price position relative to its historical upward trend. Approaching the neutral zone is significant, especially if the index continues to rise alongside further price gains.
The indicator gains even greater importance when considered alongside Bitcoin’s price action on Binance. The Z-Score rose as Bitcoin stabilized above $70,000, indicating a gradual improvement in its position within the current market cycle. However, this rise does not necessarily mean that Bitcoin has entered a strong bullish phase.
the current reading reflects a noticeable improvement in Bitcoin’s position within the logarithmic cycle pattern on Binance, but the move needs confirmation from other market indicators before it can be considered a strong bullish signal.
Written by Arab Chain

A) On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin’s price is very close to closing above both the SMA50 (blue line) and the AVWAP anchored to the latest halving (orange line).
B) The last time this occurred after a bearish trend was in March 2023.
Written by Facundo Fama

Bitcoin’s derivatives market is showing a sharp shift in trader positioning after the late-August rally:
Binance’s 7D open interest change has fallen 91% from its recent peak, while Bybit has swung from a $231M contraction to a $321M expansion.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade near $77K, retaining most of its late-August advance.
The 7D open interest change on Binance reached +$943M on August 25, reflecting a rapid expansion in outstanding futures positions during Bitcoin’s advance. By September 2, the figure had fallen to just +$86M, a decline of approximately 90.9% from the peak.
The contrast with price is notable.
Bitcoin reached a three-month high of $81,326.81 on August 28 and remained around the $77K area on September 2, meaning BTC has surrendered only a fraction of its recent advance despite a much larger reset in derivatives positioning.
Bybit’s 7-day open interest change moved from -$231M on August 22 to +$321M on September 2, representing a $552M reversal in the indicator.
The shift accelerated after August 28, when the reading was still near -$5M, with the 7D OI change increasing by roughly $326M in 5 days.
The contrasting moves point to a change in derivatives traders’ behavior following Bitcoin’s rally. Positioning built during the advance appears to be undergoing a reset, with traders becoming more selective about leveraged exposure rather than uniformly increasing risk across exchanges.
Bitcoin’s price reaction has been comparatively restrained.
BTC remains near $76,7K on the chart, despite substantially larger swings in exchange-level derivatives positioning.
The shift follows an unusually strong month for Bitcoin.
BTC gained roughly 25% in August, its best August since 2017 and its strongest monthly performance since November 2024.
BTC is therefore entering September with most of its August gains intact, while derivatives traders show a markedly different approach to leveraged risk than during the strongest phase of the rally.
Written by Amr Taha

The chart suggests that buying momentum in Ethereum’s derivatives market is weakening following its recent strong rally. ETH is currently around $2,373, after climbing from roughly $1,900 toward the $2,500 area. However, Binance’s Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has fallen to 0.86, indicating that aggressive sell orders are currently outweighing aggressive buy orders.
This creates a notable negative divergence: while ETH remains near elevated price levels, buyer participation is weakening. A Taker Buy/Sell Ratio below 1 suggests that sellers have gained greater control in the short term, making it difficult to argue that the current price is being supported by strong aggressive buying demand.
The $2,500–$2,530 zone remains a critical resistance area. If ETH retests this region while the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio remains below 1, the probability of profit taking and a short-term correction increases.
On the downside, the $2,300–$2,350 area has become an important support zone. As long as ETH holds above this region, the broader recovery structure remains intact. However, a decisive break below $2,300, combined with a further decline in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, would signal that selling pressure is becoming stronger and could bring the $2,200 and lower levels back into focus.
Overall, the chart presents a mildly bearish short term outlook for ETH. The key issue is that price remains elevated while aggressive buying strength is fading. A recovery in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio above 1, particularly alongside a breakout above $2,500–$2,530, would significantly strengthen the bullish scenario.
Written by PelinayPA

XRP futures activity has undergone a sharp reset after reaching its highest level shown in 2026, while the token’s price has remained comparatively resilient.
On August 26, the 7-day average futures volume across Binance and all other centralized exchanges reached $6.94 billion.
Binance contributed $3.14 billion, while
exchanges excluding Binance accounted for $3.80 billion.
That total was about 4.2% above the previous February 6 peak of $6.66 billion.
Binance activity was particularly strong, exceeding its February high by 10.6%, while ex-Binance volume nearly matched its earlier peak.
Six days later, the picture had changed dramatically.
By September 1, Binance’s 7-day average volume had fallen to $1.32 billion and ex-Binance volume to $1.54 billion, bringing combined activity down to $2.86 billion.
That represents a 58.8% decline from the August 26 peak.
The retreat was almost identical across venues: Binance volume fell 58.0%, while all other exchanges declined 59.5%.
This suggests the cooling was market-wide rather than concentrated on one platform.
Yet XRP’s price fell only about 5% over the same period.
That divergence is the key signal.
Nearly $4.1 billion in 7-day average futures volume disappeared in less than a week, but XRP retained most of its price level.
The data points to a rapid unwinding of speculative trading intensity without a comparable breakdown in price .
Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin data on Binance shows that the derivatives market is experiencing high levels of activity, with open interest remaining elevated as Bitcoin trades near $77,400.
The data indicates that the total volume of taker long positions reached approximately $5.62 billion, compared with around $6.10 billion in taker short positions. This means that aggressive selling volume exceeds buying volume by approximately $480 million, reflected in a long/short ratio of around 0.92, indicating a relative bias toward sellers in the derivatives market.
Meanwhile, open interest reached approximately $9.56 billion, reflecting the continued presence of a large volume of open positions in the futures market. The rise in open interest, coupled with the predominance of selling volume, may indicate increased market participation. However, it does not necessarily signal a definitive bearish trend, as the ultimate impact depends on price movements, funding rate changes, and position liquidations.
The OI-to-Volume Ratio also stands at around 0.82, reflecting a notable relationship between the size of open positions and trading activity.
Overall, the data indicates relatively strong selling pressure, with traders remaining highly engaged in the derivatives market. The next price movement will be crucial in determining whether this activity translates into continued downward pressure or a potential bullish reversal.
Written by Arab Chain

The indicator returns to positive territory after an 8-month bear cycle momentum
This signal indicates a high probability that BTC is on track to break out of the downtrend and reverse the bear market.
For this reversal signal to be confirmed, we want to see the indicator reach a level between 20-30 in the coming weeks, continuing the upward trend in price recovery.
Written by G a a h

I was quoted in a recent Nikkei article examining the risks facing Bitcoin as we head into the fall.
Nikkei’s central argument is that the strong rally seen through August may begin to lose momentum. Rising expectations for U.S. rate hikes, ETF outflows, uncertainty surrounding the November midterm elections, and delays in U.S. crypto regulation are all creating potential headwinds.
I commented that investors are beginning to reduce their positions, which could make Bitcoin more vulnerable to downward pressure. I also noted that if progress on the U.S. crypto market structure bill moves further away, short-term disappointment selling could become dominant.
The article also highlights historical weakness during U.S. midterm election years and the risk that capital could shift toward major IPOs later this year.
At the same time, this does not necessarily mean a return to a prolonged bear market. The key question is whether Bitcoin can absorb these autumn headwinds and build a solid base for the next phase of the market.
Written by XWIN Japan

While XRP closed the month with a performance of nearly 30%, XRP reserves on Binance continue to decline.
The monthly average of XRP reserves held on Binance has now reached such a low level that we have to go back to February 2024 to find a similar level.
Between November 2025, when the market was entering a bear market, and today, the monthly average of XRP reserves held on Binance has fallen from 3.1 billion to 2.6 billion XRP.
In less than a year, approximately 500 million XRP have therefore left the platform, even as the price of XRP has fallen from a high of $3.66 to around $1.35 today, representing a current drawdown of 63%.
We can also observe, with a slight lag due to the fact that this is a monthly average, that Binance reserves have tended to increase when XRP experienced a rebound, before declining again during each retracement.
This overall downward trend can be explained in several ways. The first would be indicative of a certain degree of long-term accumulation, with some investors preferring to hold their assets in their own wallets rather than on exchanges.
Secondly, this decline coincides with the launch of spot XRP ETFs in November–December 2025, which may have required XRP to be acquired on the market in order to meet the demand generated by ETF buyers.
The final reason, although it appears to be less significant here given that we are looking at an averaged metric, is that Binance itself may carry out certain transfers in order to adjust its reserves according to customer demand.
Given the levels currently reached, there is little doubt that some investors are accumulating XRP.
This sends a relatively positive signal for XRP, although this dynamic is more relevant from a long-term perspective than in terms of having a direct impact on the price in the short term.
Written by Darkfost

Binance’s XRP Whale Outflow Dominance 7-day moving average reached 84.25% on August 21, while Retail Outflow Dominance fell to 15%, creating one of the widest whale-retail splits seen this year.
The gap meant whale dominance was roughly 5.6 times retail dominance, with a spread of 69.25 percentage points.
More importantly, the structure almost exactly matched the previous extreme recorded on March 28, when whale dominance stood at 84.6% and retail at 15%.
The difference between the two whale readings was just 0.35 percentage point.
The imbalance also widened compared with June 11, when whale dominance was 81% against 18% for retail.
The whale-to-retail ratio therefore increased from roughly 4.5x to 5.6x, an expansion of about 25%.
The data does not by itself indicate whether whales were buying or selling XRP.
Instead, it shows that the composition of XRP outflows on Binance became heavily concentrated among larger participants, while retail represented a much smaller share of the total.
That extreme has since eased.
Whale dominance has fallen to around 78.5%, while retail dominance has recovered to roughly 21.3%.
Written by Amr Taha

Stablecoin inflows to exchanges typically show a pattern of decline over the weekend.
This is due to reduced activity from whales and institutional investors.
Yesterday, stablecoin inflows increased significantly to the $4.1B level, a level similar to last week.
The inflow of funds to the market is a positive signal. Yesterday's inflow was higher than the average inflow for July.
Binance still accounts for the largest share of stablecoin inflows, followed by Coinbase. The inflows from these two exchanges account for more than half of the total.
Currently, the crypto market is being led by Binance and Coinbase. And stablecoin inflows are increasing again.
Written by CW8900

Today’s BTC on-chain picture leans slightly toward caution, as exchange inflows are increasing while derivatives leverage is also rebuilding.
Exchange Netflow recorded +592 BTC on August 30, +1,296 BTC on August 31, and +1,449 BTC on September 1, marking three consecutive days of net inflows. After persistent net outflows from August 24–29, this reversal suggests potential sell-side pressure is increasing.
Funding Rate fell from 0.008683 to 0.007166 but remains positive, showing that long positioning still has the upper hand while overheating has eased somewhat. Meanwhile, Open Interest rose from about $24.51B to $25.54B over two days, indicating leverage is building again.
As a supplementary signal, Exchange Inflow CDD jumped from roughly 57K on August 29 to 448K on August 31. The movement of older coins toward exchanges, combined with positive Netflow, is worth monitoring as a possible distribution signal.
The data currently points slightly more toward short-term distribution risk than strong buy-side strength. However, Funding Rate is not yet showing extreme overheating, so this remains a caution scenario rather than a high-conviction bearish signal. If Netflow turns negative again or Inflow CDD quickly normalizes, this view would weaken.
In summary, exchange inflows are increasing, Open Interest is rising, and funding remains positive. Leverage is rebuilding while older coins are also moving toward exchanges. For now, confirmation matters more than aggressive chasing.
Tomorrow, watch whether Netflow extends to a fourth straight day of inflows, whether Inflow CDD stays elevated, and whether rising Open Interest is followed by another increase in Funding Rate.
Written by CoinNiel

Bitcoin futures demand remains solid. Yesterday's demand was higher than the day before.
However, negative values for spot demand have increased further. Spot demand has shown negative values for two consecutive days.
Yesterday was the last day of August. It is possible that liquidity was lower due to this effect.
Today's data will be very important. If negative values for spot demand persist, it is not positive data.
Without the support of spot demand, there is no bullish rally.
Written by CW8900

Bitcoin climbed from ~$64,000 to $80,000, and retail inflows to Gate picked up soon after the price increase.
Between August 23 and 30, there were more than 11 large spikes in retail deposit volume. On August 29, hourly deposits hit $11.33M, the highest level recorded this year.
The first explanation is pretty straightforward: profit-taking. Bitcoin runs higher, traders send coins to an exchange, and some of that supply is likely getting ready to sell. But exchange inflows aren't as simple as they used to be.
Gate now gives traders access to crypto, stocks and commodities. So those deposits don't necessarily translate directly into BTC sell pressure. Some traders may be cashing out, while others could simply be moving capital around or getting ready to trade somewhere else.
Written by maartunn

Long-term holders became significantly more active after the short squeeze.
From August 18 to August 28, the 30-day sum of LTH distribution rose from 174.5K to 281.9K BTC, an increase of 61.5%. The August 28 reading was the metric's highest level since the beginning of 2026.
Distribution accelerated alongside Bitcoin's sharp recovery after the short squeeze. The price increase created more favorable conditions for realizing accumulated profits, and some long-term holders began moving coins into the market more actively, using the newly opened window for distribution.
Key inflation and labor market data will be released over the next 10 days and will influence the Fed's September decision. If the Fed raises rates, pressure on risk assets will increase.
The main question now is whether current demand can absorb the growing supply without putting significant pressure on price.
Written by AxelAdlerJr

BTC is still trading around $75K to $79K.
At the same time, Exchange Reserve keeps falling, while the Exchange Whale Ratio is also moving lower.
Less BTC is sitting on exchanges, and whale-sized deposits make up a smaller share of inflows.
So far, there is no clear sign of rising exchange-side selling pressure. But that doesn't mean the data is outright bullish for BTC either.
For me, the key confirmation is whether Exchange Reserve and Whale Ratio continue to decline while BTC keeps holding this range.
If that continues, I think this consolidation phase could last longer, with less BTC available on exchanges around these levels.
Written by nocoffeenobrain

Bitcoin’s 100–1K BTC cohort recorded a 60-day accumulation reading of 73,300 BTC on Aug. 31, its highest level since April 21.
At the same time, the Above 10K BTC cohort remained firmly positive at 43,300 BTC.
During the previous April-May setup.
The 100–1K BTC cohort previously peaked at 91,920 BTC on April 21, about 20% above the current reading.
The Above 10K BTC cohort moved in the opposite direction, falling to around -40,000 BTC by May 14.
That extreme was followed by a roughly 25% decline in Bitcoin’s price later in the period.
However, the largest-holder cohort is showing a very different structure this time.
Written by Amr Taha

Between June 28 and August 27, Bitcoin's price rose 34.9% while network hashrate fell about 10% on a 7-day average.
Since 2009, 32 episodes saw BTC gain 30% or more in 60 days. Hashrate fell in three: October 2012, April 2025, and now.
Two things keep this honest:
- All three sit among the five weakest rallies of the 32, and raising the bar to 40% removes all three. Move the window to 45 or 90 days and this episode drops out too.
- October 2012 is not comparable: the first halving landed inside that window, on November 28, cutting the subsidy mid-episode.
The two post-2020 cases are the second and third softest rallies of the 11 since 2020. The softest, July 2020, saw hashrate rise 5.2%. With N of 2, the readings still cannot be separated.
The simple revenue explanation does not fit. The Puell Multiple, which compares daily coin issuance in dollars to its own 365-day average, rose 28.0% on the same 7-day smoothing, from 0.732 to 0.937. Issuance climbed while hashpower left. It stayed below 1.0 on 60 of the 61 days, so revenue was not generous.
Daily hashrate is block-variance noise: on raw data the sign flips to +6.4%. The 7-day window was fixed before the test. Moving the anchor three days moves the figure between 5.5% and 11.8%.
The test is hashrate itself, not difficulty, which only echoes it two weeks late. The 7-day average regained its starting level 9 days after the 2012 episode. Three days have passed here, so this remains normal. If it has not recovered by September 5, it sits outside the 2012 precedent.
Written by thechessONCHAIN

Bitcoin, currently trading at $78,856, remains trapped in a 10-day consolidation ($77k–$80k), generating a false sense of stability. Behind the scenes on-chain, however, a dangerous liquidity trap is set.
THE THREAT (Binance)
At 3 PM, Netflow data from the BTC: FEI Downside Alpha indicator recorded a massive deposit of 6,246 BTC into exchanges. The destination becomes evident with the Binance Whale Concentration indicator, which spiked to 82.31%. Whales concentrated ammunition on Binance to use retail — which is moving in total neutrality (daily TBSR at 1.0063) — as exit liquidity.
THE FRAGILITY (Leverage)
Support at $78.8k is fragile. The Spot vs. Futures Dominance indicator shows that futures dominate 86.38% of the market (critical zone), with 89.74% on Binance. Without US spot buying (Coinbase Premium at -0.0217), the price is a house of cards sustained by margin.
VERDICT
The combination of positioned whales and extreme leverage sets the stage for a violent Long Squeeze, potentially seeking the STH Realized Price ($70k). With FEI > 99%, there is no buying asymmetry. The order is capital protection.
Written by GugaOnChain

Observation. Bitcoin closed at $77,679 on August 30 — about 3.2% below the $80,262 high of August 27, and 20% above the $64,473 print of August 17. Price has held a narrow band for six sessions.
Context. What changed during the stall is the vintage of coin arriving at exchanges. Value spent from the 6–12 month cohort averaged $837M daily (+139% WoW; +303% vs. quarterly).
Comparison. Absorption on the other side looks thinner than in prior weeks. Binance netflow averaged roughly +472 BTC daily over the last seven sessions — still the only meaningful net absorber, but a fraction of the +6,151 and +6,725 BTC days recorded on August 21–22. Aggregate exchange netflow ran -2,768 BTC, with Coinbase draining -1,189 BTC on average, including -3,499 and -3,734 BTC single sessions. Bybit (-245) and Bitget (-77) drained alongside; Upbit (+65) and OKX (+165) turned positive but at negligible absolute size.
Binance long liquidations averaged $25.0M (+118% WoW) — long-side leverage paying for a level that did not extend.
Caveat. MPI at 0.12 (-83% WoW) rests on net miner flow of -1.09 BTC. Miner transaction count rose 108%, but the net value is too small to read as distribution.
What this may set up. Older coins appearing while venue absorption decays and the Coinbase Premium Index hovers between -0.02 and +0.03 describes supply meeting a flat rather than expanding bid. Historically this configuration has resolved into range extension more often than direct continuation. A firmer case would require Binance netflow turning negative while the premium holds above zero across consecutive sessions — neither is present.
Written by CryptoOnchain