CryptoQuant Quicktake

MicroStrategy Goes Underwater for First Time Since October 2023.

With BTC trading at $69K while MSTR's cost basis sits at $76K, Saylor's treasury strategy is underwater for the first time in 16 months. During the 2022 bear market, MSTR weathered a drawdown of 50% below cost basis. The current 9% gap is relatively modest, but timing matters more than magnitude. As a result, it's facing its first serious profitability test since October 2023.

Q1 2026 purchase activity will determine whether the strategy continues or pivots.

Written by burakkesmeci

On-chain data reveals a significant structural shift in XRP holdings on Binance. The attached chart indicates that exchange reserves have plummeted to 2.5 Billion XRP, marking the lowest level recorded since early 2024.

Key Insights:

Massive Drop from 2024 Highs: In November 2024, Binance reserves peaked at over 3.2 Billion XRP. The outflow of approximately 700 million coins over the last 15 months suggests a drastic reduction in sell-side liquidity.

Accumulation Signal: Declining exchange reserves are typically interpreted as a bullish signal. This trend implies that investors are moving assets off the exchange into cold storage (self-custody), prioritizing long-term holding over immediate trading.

Conclusion:

Despite price volatility, reserves hitting a 2-year low creates a potential “Supply Shock.” With fewer coins available for sale on the world’s largest exchange, any resurgence in demand could trigger significant price appreciation.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Over the past six months (Aug 2025–Feb 2026), risk appetite in financial markets has reached historically elevated levels. However, this strength is uneven across asset classes. In U.S. equities, options markets show sustained bullish positioning, with call volumes significantly exceeding put demand and volatility remaining near historic lows. This environment reflects strong investor confidence and favorable liquidity conditions.

Recent CPI data has reinforced this backdrop. Headline CPI slowed to 2.4% year-over-year, down from 2.7%, while core CPI eased to 2.5%. Lower inflation reduces pressure on real yields and supports expectations of eventual monetary easing, creating a supportive macro environment for risk assets.

In contrast, Bitcoin’s structure remains less decisive. The Coinbase Premium Index, a proxy for U.S. spot demand, has remained in negative territory, indicating weaker institutional buying during recent price movements. Historically, sustained rallies tend to coincide with persistent positive premiums, reflecting active accumulation from U.S.-based investors.

ETF flows also remain inconsistent, alternating between inflows and outflows rather than forming a sustained accumulation trend. This suggests institutional capital has not yet fully re-engaged despite improving macro conditions.

Over the next 30 days, Bitcoin is best viewed as being in a recovery validation phase rather than a confirmed uptrend. Key signals to monitor include a sustained positive Coinbase Premium, consecutive ETF net inflows, and evidence of spot-driven demand rather than leverage-driven price movements.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) is currently hovering around 9.6, a level that has repeatedly acted as a structural pivot in past cycles.

But the signal is directional.

Historically, when SSR declines from higher levels and reaches this zone, Bitcoin tends to find support. Why? Because a falling SSR means stablecoin supply is strengthening relative to BTC’s market cap. In other words, sidelined liquidity is building. As the ratio compresses toward ~9.5 from above, buying power improves, and price has repeatedly stabilized or reversed upward in this area.

However, the opposite has also been true.

When SSR approaches this level from below and fails to break sustainably above it, the zone acts as resistance. In those cases, stablecoin relative strength begins to fade, liquidity stops expanding, and Bitcoin has historically printed local tops shortly after.

So ~9.5 is not inherently bullish or bearish.

It’s a liquidity equilibrium zone.

Written by MorenoDV_

📰 Daily Market Update:

A few hours after the release of the US CPI y/y data, the reading came in better than expected at 2.4%, giving an initial boost to risk sentiment.

📊 Binance - BTC Price & OI Percent Change 24h/7D

🔬 Key Observation

📈 The chart highlights a sudden spike in positive Net Taker Volume immediately after the US CPI announcement.

📈 A single hourly reading exceeded $265M, which suggests that buyers became significantly more aggressive.

📈 Overall, the surge in positive Net Taker Volume indicates traders are opening large long positions, reflecting renewed risk appetite.

📊 Bitcoin STH–LTH MVRV Indicator

This indicator tracks the profitability of Short-Term Holders who bought BTC within the last 155 days, making it more sensitive than the broader MVRV ratio.

🔬 Key Observation

📉 The indicator dropped to 0.72, breaking below the two previous local lows recorded in early Aug 2024 and early Apr 2025, where readings were closer to 0.8.

📉 Current levels imply that buyers from the past 5 months are holding an average unrealized loss of about 44%.

⏲️ Historically, reaching these red zones often aligns with major capitulation events, where weak hands exit the market under emotional pressure.

📊 BTC: STH LTH Net Position Realized Cap

This chart tracks the 30-D realized cap changes for STH and LTH.

🔬 Key Observation

📉 STH Realized Cap has dropped sharply to around –$57B

LTH Realized Cap remains positive near +$35B

📉 The divergence highlights panic among short‑term traders, while long‑term investors remain relatively stable.

⏲️ Historically, such setups lead to forced selling by STH, absorbed by LTH accumulation.

🧠 Final Conclusion

STH are facing massive unrealized losses, which historically trigger capitulation and panic selling. Meanwhile, aggressive long positioning on Binance futures shows traders are betting on a rebound. The mix of STH stress + LTH stability suggests volatility ahead: weak hands may exit, while strong hands reload.

Written by Amr Taha

Bitcoin has taken a big hit during the recent market downturn. Since its all-time high on October 6, 2025, its total market value has dropped by about 50%.

This decline reflects growing economic pressure and ongoing weakness in tech stocks and other riskier investments. But while prices have been volatile, something important is happening behind the scenes: crypto is becoming more established as a real wealth service.

For example, data from Nexo shows:

- $863 million in total credit issued: From January 2025 to January 2026, users borrowed nearly $1 billion.

- Over 30% of users return: More than 30% of borrowers come back, showing they use the service regularly instead of one-time shoppers.

Even with large price swings, this data suggests that crypto is gradually developing into a steady and reliable financial product.

Written by maartunn

The short answer is No.

After looking at the data, it seems that the correction is far from finished. 😭

Currently, the market’s only aggressive buyer left is the "Bitcoin Godfather" himself.

Strategy went on a buying spree in January, scooping up 40,150 BTC. To put that in perspective, they accounted for 97.5% of all active DAT buying volume!

When you compare that to the massive red bars on the Spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta), it’s clear that aside from Michael Saylor, other buyers are effectively missing in action. This is a very "unhealthy" hand-off of coins and often serves as a warning sign that prices could drop further.

Triple-Data Cross-Validation:

To get the full picture, let’s look at these three key metrics:

Futures Open Interest (OI): This has dropped to $21.3B, a yearly low. Leveraged speculators have fled the scene, leaving the market with zero momentum.

Miner Activity: Large-scale miners began reducing their positions after February 9th, increasing the circulating supply. We need to keep a close eye on how this develops.

MVRV Ratio: We are currently at 1.2. Historically, a "macro bottom" usually hits between 0.7 and 0.8. If you do the math, that implies a potential 30–40% downside 🥵. (The silver lining? As the market matures, the bottom often ends up higher than previous cycles, so we might not hit those historic lows this time.)

The Verdict:

Based on the current data, the true Bitcoin bottom is not yet in. If history repeats itself, I believe the $48k – $58k range is the "fair value" bottom for this bearish phase.

So don’t rush to "buy the dip" just yet. Wait for clearer signals (ex. positive BTC spot CVD). For now, keep your powder dry. 💰💰💰 You might want to look at other bull markets (like Gold) for the time being, but whatever you do, don't use up all your silver bullets in the crypto market too early.

Written by Sunny Mom

The era of Big Techs as defensive assets and "infinite cash registers" is showing that it is coming to an end, giving way to a cycle of massive indebtedness and aggressive AI Capex. This movement forces the market to reevaluate the valuation of giants like Alphabet, which are now seeking century-long debt to sustain their competitiveness. Bitcoin, captured by this macro dynamic, mirrors this transition: shifting from a decorrelated asset to becoming the thermometer of institutional risk appetite. Where we once saw solidity, today we see a technological "arms race" that pressures margins and tests the resilience of balance sheets.

RELEVANT NUMBERS

◾US$ 646 billion → Projected AI investment for 2026 (Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google).

◾100 years → Term of Alphabet's debt in pounds; signals risk and suspicion of a bubble in the sector.

◾US$ 90,000 → Average entry price (Realized Price) for ETF buyers.

◾US$ 54,954 → "Danger" target for BTC in the short term.

◾US$ 100,000 → Revised targets by Standard Chartered for the end of 2026.

◾100,000 BTC → Net ETF outflow since the October 2025 peak.

INTERPRETING BTC: ISI – Institutional Survival Index

The ISI at -0.30% indicates that BTC via ETFs is operating at Critical Support. Interpret it in three zones:

◾ISI > 0% → Profit Zone. Safe Haven validated and generating value.

◾ISI 0% to -5% → Stress Zone. Support under test due to macro and Big Tech risk.

◾ISI < -5% → Danger Zone. Capitulation and forced institutional liquidation.

CONCLUSION

The Institutional Survival Index (ISI) monitors this pain threshold. If the ETF margin remains negative, the Danger Zone will be inevitable. We are living in a regime where Bitcoin seeks a new floor before the recovery promised for 2026 and, from what we see, driven by signals from the technology sector.

Technical Note → The ISI confronts the spot price (real-time) with the institutional cost (Delay T+2, due to the settlement and reporting time of the ETFs).

Written by GugaOnChain

The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing significant volatility, with overall momentum waning as traders shift toward caution and reassess risk. Bitcoin, the primary liquidity barometer for the digital asset ecosystem, is moving within volatile ranges, reflecting a consolidation phase after periods of sharp fluctuations. This has prompted some liquidity to seek alternative opportunities in specific sectors, most notably lending and borrowing.

Over the past few days, data has shown a notable increase in spot trading volumes for major lending-protocol tokens, potentially indicating a gradual return of interest in this sector. These tokens give holders governance rights and platform benefits such as better borrowing rates, higher yields, or fee discounts, tying their demand to activity within the ecosystem. Such rotation toward utility-driven assets often emerges during periods of market stagnation. When directional conviction weakens, investors often shift from outright exposure toward balance-sheet management strategies, seeking liquidity, capital efficiency, or yield without fully exiting core positions.

NEXO, the native token of digital assets wealth platform Nexo, recorded approximately $10.9 million in daily trading volume in recent days, the highest level observed in the token’s history, according to available data. This surge may be linked to increased use of the token as collateral or as a liquidity-management tool within the project’s lending ecosystem.

Meanwhile, AAVE saw a significant jump in daily trading volume, reaching approximately $327.8 million in recent days—a notably high level compared with the much lower averages of previous months.

Overall, Bitcoin’s volatility coinciding with rising trading volumes in lending tokens suggests a partial shift in liquidity from major assets toward sub-sectors with a more operational or yield-oriented focus.

Written by Arab Chain

Looking at Bitcoin price and stablecoin exchange reserves since Apr 7, 2025, the message is fairly clear: liquidity is still around, but it’s not willing to chase BTC on the spot market.

After early April, BTC pushed higher briefly, then rolled into distribution and a clean structural break. Since then, price has trended lower, with rebounds repeatedly failing to attract meaningful spot follow-through.

Meanwhile, USDC (ERC-20) balances have been building on exchanges. That matters. Capital is being positioned on trading venues, but it’s not getting converted into sustained spot BTC buying. Instead, USDC sits idle - parked liquidity, signaling caution and postponed risk-taking rather than accumulation.

USDT (ERC-20) tells the opposite story, with exchange reserves steadily declining from April onward. Liquidity is moving off Ethereum rails, consistent with softer on-chain activity and reduced use of ERC-20 settlement.

At the same time, USDT (TRC-20) exchange balances stabilized and started rising into early 2026. Tron is once again absorbing USDT flows, reinforcing its role as the preferred rail for derivatives, fast settlement, and defensive positioning.

Put together, this is not capital leaving crypto. It’s capital staying liquid, flexible, and defensive - positioned for optionality, not conviction.

Since Apr 7, 2025, liquidity has been available, but unwilling to absorb BTC supply on the spot market. Until stablecoin balances start turning into sustained spot buying, upside is likely to remain fragile and flow-driven rather than structurally supported 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision

• During the latest market drop, the UPR of Bitcoin’s New Whales reached -0.30.

• The last time that the indicator reached this level after an ATH was in June 2022.

• The difference lies in the speed, not the intensity. In 2022, from the moment the UPR turned negative, it took less than one and a half months to reach -0.30 (due to the collapse of Luna, 3AC, etc.), whereas now it has taken more than three months to reach this level. This time, it was more gradual, not a sharp crash.

• Indicator: UPR for New Whales (by Ki Young Ju, CEO of CQ).

Written by _OnChain

Recent data from Binance indicates that the 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-14) of Bitcoin Funding Rates has dropped to a critical level of −0.002. This marks the lowest value this metric has recorded since September 2024 (surpassing even the lows observed in May 2025). Concurrently, Bitcoin’s price has been in a grinding downtrend, currently trading around the $66.4K range.

Data Interpretation:

Bearish Dominance: A deeply negative funding rate, especially when sustained over a 14-day average, signals that short traders are aggressively betting on further price declines. These traders are willing to pay a premium to long position holders just to keep their bearish positions open.

Capitulation Signs: Such extreme negative values typically manifest at the tail end of severe downtrends, often coinciding with peak market fear and capitulation.

Market Outlook:

From an on-chain and market psychology perspective, deeply negative funding rates often serve as a strong Contrarian Signal. The market currently appears to be heavily “overcrowded” on the short side.

This setup provides the necessary fuel for a potent Short Squeeze. Even a minor price rebound or a piece of positive news could trigger a cascade of liquidations among these accumulated short positions, propelling the price upward rapidly. While the prevailing price trend remains bearish, the risk-to-reward ratio for opening new short positions is unfavorable at these funding levels.

Conclusion:

Historical patterns suggest that when the Funding Rate SMA-14 dips into negative territory (similar to the instances in May 2025 and November 2024), it often precedes the formation of a local price bottom. Traders should exercise caution, as the market holds high potential for a corrective bullish move.

Written by CryptoOnchain

📰 Daily Market Update:

On-chain flows and liquidity metrics often reveal what large players are doing before the market reacts.

📊 [BTC] - Binance Whale to Exchange Flow

The chart tracks the cumulative 30-day inflow of Bitcoin into Binance.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 Recently, the chart shows a sharp rise in whale inflows exceeding $7.5 billion.

📈 This marks the second time whale inflows have surpassed this threshold.

📉 The last time was in late November, This was followed by a drop in Bitcoin’s price from approximately $92k to current levels below $70k.

📊 Tether USD(ERC20): Total Supply

This chart tracks the total supply of USDT on Ethereum (ERC20).

🔬 Key Observation

📉 Since January 18, total USDT supply on Ethereum has declined from over $103 billion to around $96 billion by February 12, representing a $7 billion contraction in less than one month.

📉 The last time we saw a comparable setup was in mid-May 2022, when USDT supply on Ethereum fell by roughly $3 billion, from $39B to $36B.

📉 What followed was a sharp Bitcoin decline from above $30k to below $20k, a loss exceeding 40%.

📅 Note: I previously highlighted the one-time burn of $3.5 billion in USDT on the Ethereum network in our last update.

🧠 Final Conclusion

⏲️ The continued inflow of Bitcoin from whale wallets into spot exchanges, alongside a declining stablecoin supply, historically contributed to lower crypto asset prices due to reduced liquidity.

⏲️ This does not guarantee an immediate crash, but it raises caution flags for aggressive long positioning and suggests that upside may remain limited unless liquidity conditions improve.

Written by Amr Taha

The $BTC IFP (Inter-exchange Flow Pulse) indicator measures the level of activity between $BTC exchanges, reflecting movement between spot and derivatives exchanges.

In general, a bull market begins with an inflow of $BTC into the futures market. This occurs when the IFP line forms a golden cross with the 90MA. The gap is currently narrowing, and the golden cross is approaching.

Whales are focusing on the futures market rather than the spot market and are actively building their positions. They are quietly preparing for a bull market.

Written by CW8900

Data on net open interest (OI Change 30D) across major trading platforms indicates that the derivatives market is undergoing a clear phase of deleveraging and risk readjustment. The data shows that the downward trend is concentrated on several key platforms, most notably Binance, Gate.io, OKX, and Bybit, reflecting a widespread outflow of capital from futures positions.

Based on the displayed figures, Binance recorded a decline of approximately 40 million ETH over the last 30 days, while Gate.io’s open interest fell by more than 20 million ETH, OKX declined by about 6.8 million ETH, and Bybit by an additional 8.5 million ETH. This brings the total decline across these four platforms alone to approximately 75 million ETH.

When other platforms showing negative readings, albeit with smaller volumes, are included, the total contraction in open interest across all platforms exceeds 80 million ETH over the past 30 days, confirming that the phenomenon is widespread and not limited to a single platform.

This pattern suggests that traders, particularly those using high leverage, are reducing their exposure rather than opening new positions, whether out of caution or due to pressure from volatile price movements. Such periods typically coincide with market transitions, where short-term speculation gives way to a more conservative approach.

From a structural perspective, this significant drop in open interest can be viewed as a “clean-up” of weaker positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of sharp forced liquidations later on. This environment may pave the way for a period of relative stability or the formation of a more solid price base for Ethereum in the near future.

Written by Arab Chain

The world is currently facing a higher level of uncertainty than during 9/11, the Iraq War, and Covid — combined.

This isn’t just a headline. It’s data-driven reality: the Global Uncertainty Index has reached an all-time high.

It has surpassed the 2008 financial crash, the Euro debt crisis, and the pandemic.

So what does this actually mean?

It means markets are struggling to find direction, capital is moving more cautiously, and risk is being priced more aggressively.

It means geopolitical, economic, and political fragilities are all active at the same time. And most importantly, it suggests that what we once considered “normal” volatility may now be the new baseline.

When uncertainty rises, two types of people emerge: those who panic — and those who position.

History shows that periods of extreme uncertainty are also periods of major repositioning.

The real question is:

Will we see this era as a threat — or as a strategic opportunity?

Written by İbrahim COŞAR

Following its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been in a downtrend for approximately four months and is now approaching what can be considered an undervalued zone.

Generally, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is regarded as undervalued. At present, the indicator stands at around 1.1, suggesting that price levels are nearing the undervaluation range.

However, unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin did not experience a sharp rise into a clearly overvalued zone during the recent bull cycle. This distinction is important to recognize.

As a result, the current decline may also differ from past market bottoms, and it appears necessary to respond with this possibility in mind.

Based on experience, I believe that for most investment assets with a long-term upward trajectory, effective preparation tends to begin during downturns, increasing the likelihood of favorable outcomes.

Written by Crypto Dan

As Bitcoin’s correction continues, volatility is also starting to rise. In an environment shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, with still incomplete data following the shutdown and heightened geopolitical tensions, it is logical to see additional stress emerging in an already fragile crypto market.

This instability is further amplified by the excess leverage present in derivatives markets. The chain liquidations that can result mechanically intensify price movements and reinforce volatility.

Since the end of summer, Bitcoin’s volatility has increased further. A first major spike was observed during the historic liquidation event on October 10, which affected the entire crypto market. Since then, volatility has remained elevated, particularly in November, late January, and early February.

In this context, some investors endure these periods of stress and may even capitulate, while others seek to take advantage of them by deploying their BTC to generate yield or access liquidity through collateralization solutions.

For example, on Nexo, a platform focused on CeFi services, there is a clear correlation between rising volatility and increasing BTC inflows. In November, around 1,500 BTC were transferred to the platform, nearly three times more than the previous month.

January recorded about 1,100 BTC in inflows, and February has already seen more than 630 BTC, extending this trend.

The cumulative amount of BTC deposited on the platform clearly illustrates investors’ appetite for these types of strategies. Nexo holds more than 43,000 BTC deposited on the platform, representing over $2.7B.

Although near-term sentiment around Bitcoin remains cautious, the longer-term outlook remains constructive. In this environment, such solutions allow investors to optimize exposure while preserving capital amid elevated uncertainty.

Written by Darkfost

As Ethereum bleeds from its October high of $4,800 down to $1,900, the derivatives market is flashing a rare contrarian signal. The 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Ethereum funding rates on Binance has plunged deep into negative territory, hitting -0.006.

Key Insights:

3-Year Low Sentiment:

This level of -0.006 marks the lowest value recorded since early December 2022. It indicates that bearish sentiment has reached an extreme peak not seen in the last three years.

Overcrowded Shorts:

Such a deeply negative rate implies that short sellers are aggressively dominating the market, paying a significant premium to keep their positions open at these lower price levels.

Reversal Setup:

Historically, extreme negative funding rates at major price support levels often precede a massive short squeeze. When the crowd is this convinced that prices will fall further, the market tends to move in the opposite direction to liquidate late bears.

Current data suggests we may be witnessing a classic capitulation event, mirroring the bottom formation of late 2022, potentially setting the stage for a sharp recovery.

Written by CryptoOnchain

The CLARITY Act seeks to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. Its objective is to clarify legal classifications, delineate oversight between the SEC and CFTC, define registration standards for exchanges and custodians, and set issuance and reserve requirements for stablecoins. In effect, it attempts to provide a constitutional foundation for the crypto industry.

Yet legislative progress has slowed. The central conflict revolves around yield-bearing stablecoins. Banking groups argue that offering interest or rewards transforms stablecoins into deposit substitutes, potentially increasing liquidity risks for regional banks. They advocate strict limits on compensation structures. Exchanges, however, depend on yield programs as key revenue streams and user acquisition tools, making this issue structurally significant.

If enacted, CLARITY could evolve in two directions. A restrictive framework may limit stablecoins primarily to payment functions and subject yield products to securities or bank-level regulation. Alternatively, a conditional model may permit limited yield structures under enhanced capital, disclosure, and segregation requirements.

Despite regulatory uncertainty, on-chain indicators suggest resilience. ERC20 stablecoin supply remains elevated, and active addresses continue at stable levels, indicating preserved liquidity rather than structural capital flight.

CLARITY’s impact is therefore more likely to reshape participant composition and institutional accessibility over time than to trigger immediate price reactions.

Written by XWIN Research Japan