CryptoQuant Quicktake

Recent on-chain data reveals a concerning trend regarding market liquidity. The Tether USD (ERC20) Exchange Reserve across all exchanges has dropped significantly since late December, returning to levels last seen in October. This depletion of stablecoin liquidity coincides with Bitcoin’s price correction, signaling a reduction in immediate buying power.

Key Data Points:

Decline since Dec 30: Total USDT (ERC20) reserves on exchanges have plummeted from the ~$60B level on December 30th to approximately $53B currently.

Binance Outflows: Binance indicates a significant portion of this movement, with its USDT reserves falling from ~$43B to ~$38B.

Market Implications:

This massive outflow of over $7B in stablecoins has occurred parallel to Bitcoin’s correction from ~$93k to $69k.

Typically, during a healthy dip, we expect stablecoin reserves to remain high or increase as traders wait to “buy the dip.” However, the simultaneous drop in both BTC price and USDT reserves suggests capital flight. Investors appear to be withdrawing liquidity from exchanges entirely (likely to fiat or DeFi) rather than keeping dry powder ready on exchanges.

Conclusion:

Stablecoin reserves represent the “fuel” needed for the next leg up. The current trend suggests a lack of aggressive buy-side demand at current levels. For a sustainable market reversal, we need to see a return of USDT inflows to exchanges, rebuilding the purchasing power required to absorb the selling pressure.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Long-term on-chain data highlights a persistent and significant decline in Bitcoin Exchange Reserves, which have now hit multi-year lows around 2.74M BTC. Does this signal an impending price surge?

Historical Context:

History suggests that major depletions in exchange supply often precede bullish price action:

March – Nov 2020: Reserves dropped from 3.27M to 2.9M. This reduction in sell-side liquidity helped fuel the massive bull run of 2021.

Nov 2022: We witnessed a parabolic drop where reserves plummeted from 3.52M to ~3M in a matter of days. This capitulation marked the cycle bottom, followed by a price recovery.

Current Outlook:

We are currently witnessing a similar macro trend. Over the past two years, total exchange reserves have drained significantly, falling from roughly 3.2M to the current level of 2.74M.

Conclusion:

This consistent decline indicates that investors are moving coins to cold storage, effectively removing liquid supply from the market. With exchange balances at such low levels, a potential “Supply Shock” is forming. If history is any guide, this reduction in available supply creates a highly bullish setup for price appreciation, provided demand remains steady.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Ethereum exchange netflow data over the past few days indicates a clear acceleration in withdrawal activity from exchanges, signaling a notable shift in investor behavior toward reducing the amount of supply available for selling.

Across all exchanges, net Ethereum outflows have exceeded 220,000 ETH, marking the highest level of withdrawals since last October. This elevated volume reflects a strong wave of ETH being transferred to private wallets or long-term storage protocols, a pattern that is often associated with accumulation phases or risk-reduction behavior.

On Binance, daily net outflows reached approximately -158,000 ETH on February 5, the largest since last August, confirming that a substantial portion of the recent outflows has been concentrated on the exchange with the deepest liquidity.

From a price perspective, these strong outflows coincided with Ethereum trading near the $1,800–$2,000 range, suggesting that some investors are treating these levels as attractive zones for holding or repositioning, particularly following the recent market pullback.

The continued outflow of Ethereum from exchanges at this scale reduces immediate selling pressure and is considered a structurally supportive factor for price in the near term, especially if it is accompanied by stabilization or improvement in market momentum.

Written by Arab Chain

📰 Daily Market Update:

two key on-chain and market structure indicators that may have a significant impact on BTC short- to mid-term price action.

📊 BTC: Whale (>1K) to Binance Inflow

This chart tracks BTC transfers from wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC into Binance.

📈 Blue spikes represent large inflows of BTC sent by whales directly to Binance.

📈 The chart highlights the second daily inflow exceeding 5,000 BTC on Feb 9.

📈 The first similar inflow occurred on Feb 2, when more than 5,000 BTC were sent to Binance.

📉 That inflow coincided with Bitcoin dropping from $77k → below $70k by Feb 6.

This makes February especially important, as two similarly large whale inflows occurred within just 7 days, a rare event.

📊 Bitcoin + US Spot ETF Flows + Liquidity Impulse

This chart monitors the total amount of Bitcoin held by all US Spot Bitcoin ETFs combined, which represents cumulative institutional demand.

The yellow line reflects total ETF holdings (BTC).

🔬 Key Observation

🚀 Total ETF holdings peaked at around 1.36 million BTC in mid-October 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin reaching an all-time high above $126k.

📉 Since then, ETF holdings have been steadily declining.

📉 On February 9, total holdings dropped to around 1.27 million BTC, while Bitcoin price fell to below $71k.

📈 This means roughly 90,000 BTC exited US Spot ETFs, representing about 6.6% of total ETF holdings over the past months.

📉 This reduction in ETF reserves aligns with Bitcoin’s slide below $71k, showing waning institutional appetite.

🧠 Final Conclusion

⏲️ Historically, when whale wallets move large amounts of Bitcoin to spot exchanges like Binance, it is often interpreted as distribution behavior.

At the same time, declining ETF holdings confirm that institutions are reducing exposure.

⏲️ This does not guarantee an immediate crash, but it raises caution flags for aggressive long positioning and suggests that upside may remain limited unless liquidity conditions improve.

Written by Amr Taha

This article examines the current Bitcoin market through the lens of a simple question: could Bitcoin be entering a new “winter phase”? The base assessment is that the market is no longer just a healthy pullback within a bull trend, but structurally closer to the early stage of winter, or a re-entry into it. Directionally, and only conditionally, downside pressure appears slightly dominant.

This view is not widely shared for clear reasons. Many participants psychologically want to believe that “this is not winter,” especially given fresh memories of 2022. In addition, the nominal price level remains far higher than during the prior winter, reinforcing the perception that conditions are fundamentally different. Bitcoin has also become structurally stronger through spot ETFs, institutional adoption, and improved infrastructure, making a repeat of past winters feel unlikely.

However, winter is defined not by price levels, but by shifts in supply-demand dynamics, capital flows, and sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 14 (Extreme Fear), indicating that sentiment has already deteriorated sharply despite elevated prices. This pattern aligns with past cycles, where psychology weakened before price fully adjusted.

Flow data reinforces this view. In 2024, $10B of inflows expanded market capitalization, while in 2025, over $300B of inflows coincided with a decline in market cap—suggesting persistent structural selling pressure. On-chain profit metrics also show declining realized gains despite high prices, signaling weakening internal momentum.

The base scenario is that Bitcoin may already be entering winter, with higher prices and stronger structure delaying recognition. That view should be reassessed if ETF inflows stabilize and on-chain distribution clearly subsides.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

• During the latest market drop, BTC traded below the Realized Price of whales holding between 100 and 1k BTC ($7-70M at current prices). According to the most recent data, this RP currently stands at $69K.

• For reference: The last time this occurred after an ATH was in June 2022, when price traded below it for roughly seven months.

Written by _OnChain

Bitcoin on-chain structure is showing a clear divergence between mid-sized holder positioning and broader market demand. Dolphin cohorts continue expanding their total BTC balances, with holdings recently pressing toward new cycle highs despite weakening price momentum. The 30-day change in balances remains structurally positive, reinforcing that this group is still absorbing supply rather than distributing into strength.

However, the pace of accumulation is beginning to moderate. Monthly percentage change across Dolphin holdings has started to compress, signaling that while balances continue rising, the intensity of buying is slowing. This transition typically emerges during consolidation phases, when cohorts shift from aggressive expansion into more passive absorption while awaiting renewed market catalysts.

Demand conditions, in contrast, have deteriorated far more sharply. Apparent Demand (30-day) spiked aggressively during the last impulsive rally but has since reversed deeply into negative territory. The scale of this drawdown reflects a material cooldown in spot absorption, suggesting recent inflows were not sustained long enough to maintain upside continuation.

Breaking demand into structural components reinforces this slowdown. ETF inflows, which previously acted as a dominant marginal bid, have flattened, while Strategy-related accumulation has also stabilized after earlier bursts of expansion. With institutional demand no longer accelerating, the divergence between ongoing Dolphin accumulation and weakening aggregate demand creates a transitional market structure where supply is absorbed, but upside momentum remains capped until demand growth reaccelerates.

Written by CryptoZeno

📰 Daily Market Update:

The following analysis combines Binance derivatives positioning data with Ethereum on-chain revenue metrics

📊 ETH: Binance Cumulative Net Taker Volume / OI [USD] 24H

📉 Ethereum Open Interest on Binance dropped significantly from 8B to 3.9B

📉 The decline started around January 14 and continued until the time of writing

📉 This represents a nearly 50% reduction in total outstanding derivative contracts

📈 Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Surge Since February 4

📈 Focusing on the period starting February 4, CVD increased from $2.4 billion to $4.15 billion

⚠️ This means most of the closed positions were shorts, while long positions stayed open.

⚠️ This type of positioning often reflects excessive optimism, especially when driven by derivatives .

📊 Daily Blockchain Total Revenue by Chain-All Protocols

The second chart tracks daily total blockchain revenue across multiple networks,

🔬 Ethereum’s total revenue mainly comes from Gas Fees, which users pay for:

* Transferring ETH between wallets

* Swaps on decentralized exchanges

* Interacting with smart contracts (DeFi lending, NFTs, etc.)

* Liquidations, which spike during volatile or falling markets

The chart shows a sudden spike in Ethereum daily revenue, reaching levels close to $6M per day.

🔬 Key Revenue Events:

📅 February 6: Ethereum revenue surged to $5.8M

📅 Last time we saw similar levels was January 31, 2026, when revenue hit $5.88M, That spike coincided with ETH price dropping from above $2,700

⏲️ The last time ETH revenue went above $6M was Oct 13, 2025, when ETH later corrected from its peak above $4,250.

🧠 Final Conclusion

⏲️ The recent closing of most short positions in the derivatives market shows that many leveraged traders are now betting on Ethereum’s price to keep climbing, signaling a wave of optimism among market players.

This view is backed by the noticeable jump in Ethereum network revenue, pointing to stronger buying activity.

Written by Amr Taha

• During the latest market drop, ETH traded below the Realized Price of whales holding at least 100k ETH. According to the most recent data, this RP currently stands at $2,075.

• The last time this occurred after an ATH was in September 2018, when price traded below it for roughly six months.

• Ethereum has now reached a level with a favorable risk-reward profile to start more aggressive long-term DCA accumulation.

Written by _OnChain

Data from the Bitcoin Trend Strength & Structure Index on Binance indicates that the market is currently experiencing a phase of structural weakness, with price declining toward the $70,000 level and trading below the 50-day moving average, while remaining at a notable distance from the 200-day moving average. This reflects a loss of bullish momentum that had dominated over the previous months.

The chart shows the short-term moving average (MA50) near $87,000, while the long-term moving average (MA200) is around $102,000—a relatively wide gap that suggests the broader trend is still in a corrective phase. This type of technical structure is often classified as a repricing phase, where the market retests potential demand zones following a strong rally.

At the same time, the price Z-Score is posting a negative reading of around -1.6, indicating that price is trading below its statistical mean over the medium term. This reflects selling pressure and exhaustion in the prior uptrend. Historically, when this indicator enters negative territory, it has coincided with periods of increased caution and reduced leverage usage, before the market begins forming a more solid price base.

From a behavioral perspective, these conditions reflect a shift by traders from pursuing quick returns to focusing on capital preservation and risk reduction. They also suggest that smart money may prefer to wait for clearer signals of trend recovery, such as price stabilizing above the 50-day moving average and then attempting to reclaim the 200-day moving average.

Written by Arab Chain

Recent collateral composition data shows that Bitcoin remains the dominant strategy for borrowers. This shows that Bitcoin is not only for remittances, or trading, but also for lending and borrowing. Nexo clients treat Bitcoin as pristine collateral.

The data included is a chart of Collateral Composition (%) for each quarter. It’s specifically data for Nexo. It shows that borrowers aren’t rotating into BTC for short-term speculation. They’re using Bitcoin as long-term collateral to access liquidity without selling.

Key takeaways:

- BTC consistently holds ~54–60% share of total collateral

- Even as the market corrected, Bitcoin dominance increased to 56.2% in Q1 2026.

- Credit demand aligns with conviction, not trading activity

It’s a key evidence that Bitcoin is more than a crypto to trade. It’s the asset people trust to back their credit.

Written by maartunn

While Bitcoin price action remains bearish, dropping to the $69K range, on-chain data from Binance reveals a significant shift in investor behavior. A massive divergence has formed between the falling price and the average size of withdrawals from the exchange.

Key Data Points

The 14-day Simple Moving Average (SMA-14) of Exchange Outflow (Mean) on Binance has witnessed a vertical spike.

January 28: The indicator was hovering around 6 BTC.

February 8: It surged to 13.3 BTC.

Significance: This represents the highest average outflow size recorded since November 2024.

On-Chain Analysis

Whale Activity Indicator: The “Mean Outflow” metric represents the average amount of Bitcoin withdrawn per transaction. A sharp increase in this value—doubling in just 10 days—strongly suggests that whales and institutional players are dominating the withdrawal activity, rather than retail investors.

Buying the Dip: Large entities are seizing the opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices (approx. $69K). The timing of these large withdrawals, coinciding with the price crash, indicates high conviction among smart money investors.

Supply Shock: Moving coins off the largest exchange (Binance) to cold storage reduces the immediate sell-side pressure and decreases the liquid supply available on the order books.

Conclusion

The market is currently witnessing a classic “accumulation during capitulation” scenario. While sentiment is fearful, the sharp rise in the Mean Exchange Outflow confirms that large-scale investors are aggressively buying and withdrawing Bitcoin, signaling potential support formation at these levels.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Chainlink investors need to watch out! After a brief recovery from $7.19, a massive 19% spike in exchange inflows today suggests the bears are back. This mirror-image of the late January sell-off warns that if $7.19 fails to hold, we could be staring down a flush to $5.00 as speculative pressure peaks.

But don’t let the short-term noise fool you; the odds suggest the whales are waiting, and a possible dip again could be part of a bigger strategy for them. 🐋

While retail is still in panic mode, the "Smart Money" is locked in on the aim:

As the data shows, we saw Zero ETF Outflows: Since launch, the LINK ETF hasn't seen a single day of outflows.

Its official website metrics data show that Unstoppable Utility: Oracles has now facilitated a staggering $28.02 trillion in transactions, and the graph continues to rise.

Strategic Reserves: Revenue-funded reserves continue to climb, securing the network’s future.

The current dip is a classic "shakeout" before the next leg up. Are you going to dump your bags into the whales' mouths or follow the institutional lead? The possible $5 dip could be an ideal entry zone for smart money seeking the most discounted price on LINK, and it might also be the ultimate generational entry point for investors.

Note:- not a FA before entering any position, DYOR well.

Written by TopNotchYJ

The chart highlights several important periods.

During March-April 2025, whale to exchange flow remained very low while price showed weak reactions. Whales were not selling, supply tightened, and this was followed by a sharp rally in July 2025.

In June-July 2025, while the ratio was still near historical lows, the initial rally began. As price moved higher, profit-taking followed, and whale flow spiked near the peak, signaling distribution.

During December 2025 January 2026, the ratio again stayed very low while price continued to decline. Selling pressure during this period was mainly driven by retail investors, not whales.

Currently, Whale to Exchange Flow remains near historical lows, while price has dropped sharply to around $1.42. This decline is not accompanied by sustained whale selling. Panic selling is largely coming from smaller investors, while whales appear to be waiting for better opportunities.

Based on historical behavior, price may continue to move sideways or slightly lower in the short term as volatility decreases. This could be followed by sudden, low-volume upside wicks. When a real rally begins, whale selling is likely to appear, potentially leading to deeper pullbacks.

Tracking this metric specifically on Binance is critical. Binance has the highest spot and derivatives volume in XRP and the deepest order books. It is the primary trading venue for whales and institutions. While other exchanges may reflect transfers or wallet movements, the capital that truly moves price is concentrated on Binance.

In summary, Binance Whale to Exchange Flow measures action, not expectation, and acts as a leading indicator by capturing behavior before price reacts.

Written by PelinayPA

BTC is still facing strong selling pressure in the derivatives market.

The Net Taker Volume, on a monthly average basis, has turned negative again. After a period of calm between November and January, when buyers briefly regained some control (~$36M), we are now back to clear selling dominance, reaching -$272M today.

On Binance, for example, the exchange that concentrates a large share of trading volumes, the taker buy sell ratio fell from 1 to 0.97 over the same period, reinforcing this negative trend.

What is particularly concerning is the gradual acceleration of this trend, which will require even stronger spot demand to counterbalance it.

Futures volumes continue to drive the market given the gap with spot volumes and ETF inflows.

Considering the current environment and the key macro data closely watched by all markets (CPI and the unemployment rate), caution is warranted as this recent rebound still looks fragile.

Written by Darkfost

The Ethereum market is currently witnessing a stark divergence between price action and on-chain network activity, signaling a potential capitulation event.

Key Observations

According to the attached chart, as the price of Ethereum corrected sharply from the $3,000 level down to the $2,000 range, the network experienced a massive surge in token movement.

The 14-day Moving Average (SMA-14) of Total Tokens Transferred has gone parabolic. It spiked from approximately 1.6 million on January 29 to 2.75 million on February 7. This marks the highest level recorded for this metric since August 2025.

On-Chain Interpretation

Panic Selling & Rotation: This significant spike in ERC-20 token transfers during a price crash suggests investors are rushing to exit positions, likely converting volatile assets into stablecoins or moving funds to exchanges for liquidation.

Capitulation Signal: Historically, such extreme spikes in transfer velocity (Velocity) during bearish price action indicate the “flushing out” of weak hands. The market is processing a massive volume of sell-side pressure in a very short window.

DeFi Cascade: Given that this metric tracks tokens, a portion of this surge is likely attributed to a cascade of liquidations and collateral shifts across DeFi protocols triggered by the price drop.

Conclusion

The market is currently in a state of peak fear. However, historically, when token transfer activity creates a “blow-off top” like this during a downtrend, it often signals that the intense selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, potentially setting the stage for a local bottom formation.

Written by CryptoOnchain

On-chain data indicates a notable surge in Bitcoin miners’ activity since the beginning of February, with their inflows to Binance surpassing 90,000 BTC during this period—an important development that reflects a meaningful shift in the behavior of this influential market segment. The data also shows that miners’ activity has reached its highest level since 2024, including a single day that recorded deposits exceeding 24,000 BTC, an exceptional figure highlighting the strong pace of these movements.

Miner inflows to exchanges are typically viewed as a signal of a potential increase in sell-side supply, as miners deposit part of their production to cover operating costs or to realize profits following periods of price volatility. In this context, the large volume of inflows during February may suggest that miners are taking advantage of current price levels to liquidate a portion of their holdings or rebalance their portfolios after extended holding periods.

Notably, this rise in miner activity comes within a market environment characterized by clear volatility and reduced risk appetite among segments of traders, which could add an extra layer of short-term selling pressure. However, these inflows do not necessarily indicate the start of a prolonged downtrend, but rather may represent a natural redistribution phase within the market cycle.

From a historical perspective, markets have previously experienced elevated miner inflows to exchanges during periods of correction or sideways consolidation, and such phases have often preceded stabilization followed by a gradual return of momentum. Moreover, sustained high miner activity also reflects that the network is operating efficiently and that production remains strong—factors that support Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals.

Written by Arab Chain

The landslide victory of Sanae Takaichi marks Japan’s shift toward aggressive fiscal stimulus and tolerance for currency depreciation. The “Takaichi Trade” has lifted the Nikkei to record highs while reshaping global capital flows.

Analyst GugaOnChain notes this is not a direct capital flight from U.S. assets, but a global portfolio rebalancing. Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs), long sidelined by ultra-low yields, are regaining appeal amid fiscal expansion and reflation expectations, absorbing incremental capital and slowing inflows into U.S. equity ETFs.

U.S. equities have entered a correction. Over the past seven days, the Nasdaq fell 5.59%, the S&P 500 declined 2.65%, and the Russell 2000 dropped 2.6%, reflecting tighter liquidity and macro reassessment. Dollar strength—driven by yen weakness, persistent U.S.–Japan rate differentials, and risk-off demand—has further tightened financial conditions.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin faces short-term downside risk. In risk-off phases, BTC tends to correlate with U.S. equities, allowing equity-led de-risking to spill into crypto markets. This pressure does not reflect deterioration in Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals, but cross-asset risk management.

CryptoQuant’s cross-asset indicators support this view, showing that simultaneous equity corrections increase the likelihood of BTC downside even without on-chain weakness. Recent declines reflect equity-driven position unwinds, not long-term holder capitulation.

From a medium- to long-term perspective, the outlook diverges. After the February 8 Lower House election delivered a two-thirds majority, Japan gained a favorable environment for legislative reform. The Takaichi administration has positioned Web3 as an industrial growth sector, with tax reform and stablecoin regulation likely to become structural tailwinds.

In short, near-term pressure on U.S. equities and Bitcoin is macro-driven, while Japan’s institutional reforms may support crypto markets longer term.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Recently, a large amount of Bitcoin has been deposited into exchanges, bringing the total exchange-held supply back to levels seen around 2019. Of course, it should be noted that a significant portion of this Bitcoin is owned by investors who are simply holding their assets on exchanges.

In contrast, Ethereum—despite being launched in 2015—currently has an exchange-held supply comparable to levels from mid-2016. The red box represents the current amount of Ethereum held on exchanges, while the blue box indicates the same spot supply level observed in mid-2016. Considering that most of this Ethereum is also investor-owned, it remains an open question whether such low exchange balances can be sustained over time. This is something that warrants close and ongoing monitoring.

Although Ethereum’s OTC balance has increased recently, it remains relatively small when compared to the amount held on exchanges.

If Ethereum balances on exchanges were to suddenly dry up, followed by the depletion of OTC supply as well, it raises a compelling question: what kind of market dynamics would emerge in such a scenario?

Written by CoinNiel

Since the start of this cycle, one category of investors has been noticeably less active than in previous cycles. These are retail investors. Their activity steadily declined as the cycle progressed.

On this chart, they are represented by holders of less than 1 BTC, commonly referred to as shrimps. This group, historically very sensitive to price movements, remained relatively on the sidelines during a large part of the market’s advance.

The sharp decline seen in recent days marked a change in behavior. The sudden drop in Bitcoin’s price was associated by a visible increase in their activity, measured here through inflows to Binance.

This correction appears to have triggered a wave of panic among these small investors, who rushed to transfer their BTC to Binance, a highly accessible platform that concentrates a large share of this group’s activity.

On February 5, inflows from shrimps to Binance exceeded 1,000 BTC in a single day, while their monthly average was closer to 365 BTC.

Such a spike had not been seen since July 2025, when Bitcoin was still advancing toward new all time highs.

This comparison is notable because it shows that similar volumes can appear both during euphoric phases and during periods of stress, although driven by very different behaviours.

The start of this month has clearly put investors under pressure. Rising volatility increases psychological stress and encourages impulsive decisions that can lead to capitulation.

However, the market quickly showed signs of stabilization. After a brief move below $60,000, Bitcoin rebounded and is now trading again around $71,000.

This partial recovery has helped calm retail investors. Their flows to exchanges have gradually returned to their monthly average, leading to a meaningful reduction in selling pressure coming from this segment of the market.

Written by Darkfost