bloomingbit

Strong results from SpaceX sparked a rebound in AI-related stocks. But funding pressure from heavy investment remained in focus after Meta posted its first negative free cash flow since going public.
On October 21, the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.05%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.58% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.69%. Nvidia climbed 2.54%, AMD rose 3.36%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded 1.97%.
SpaceX jumped 7.79% a day after reporting third-quarter revenue of $14.6 billion and net income of $4.4 billion. AI-related revenue surged 830% from a year earlier to $7.6 billion. Super Micro Computer also soared 9.55% after raising its July-September revenue forecast to $18.5 billion-$19.5 billion from $14.5 billion-$15.5 billion.
Meta, which released earnings after the close, reported revenue of $64.4 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $3.83, both above market expectations. Free cash flow, however, came in at negative $2.1 billion, its first deficit since the company went public. Meta also raised the low end of its annual capital expenditure forecast to $135 billion from $130 billion.
CoreWeave, which has faced funding concerns, gave up earlier gains and fell 0.50%. Bank of America estimated capital expenditure needed for SpaceX's plan to expand computing capacity next year could total $400 billion to $800 billion.
"Investors want to see the payoff, and SpaceX's earnings release could be an early sign of that," Mark Hackett, a strategist at Nationwide, said.
Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel, said marginal pricing could fall sharply once supply exceeds demand, warning of possible oversupply.

All six economists surveyed by Yonhap News expect the Bank of Korea to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.00%. The view is that policymakers will assess the impact of earlier increases rather than deliver a third straight hike after moves in July and August.
For the path after a pause, growth momentum and inflation pressures will both need to be taken into account. Vice Prime Minister and Finance Minister Lee Hyoung-il said on October 16 that this year’s real gross domestic product growth could reach as high as 3.6%. That is above the Bank of Korea’s August forecast of 3.3%. The current-account surplus for January through August also reached $279.2 billion, about four times the level recorded a year earlier.
Rising oil prices and household debt were also cited as factors that could support another rate increase. Brent crude came close to $112 a barrel during trading on October 20. Household loans at South Korea’s five biggest banks stood at 783.5983 trillion won as of October 15, up 2.7643 trillion won from the end of September. The balance fell by 1.2852 trillion won last month, but turned higher again this month.
The won strengthened against the dollar. It fell to 1,322.8 won per dollar during the previous session, the lowest intraday level since October 2, 2024, based on intraday lows. Dollar selling by exporters contributed to the move.
BOK Governor Shin Hyun-song is scheduled to hold a press briefing at about 11:10 a.m. on Wednesday to explain the background to the rate decision and the direction of future monetary policy.

U.S. stocks rose across the board after SpaceX turned profitable and an AI server maker raised its sales outlook. Buying in semiconductor and server shares helped push the Nasdaq Composite up more than 1%.
On Oct. 21, the Nasdaq Composite closed up 278.04 points, or 1.05%, at 26,702.86 in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 360.21 points, or 0.69%, to 52,856.09, while the S&P 500 rose 44.60 points, or 0.58%, to 7,757.17.
SpaceX jumped 7.79% a day after reporting its first profit since going public. Investors also focused on Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk's remark that a merger with Tesla would be "a good idea." Tesla shares rose 3.41%.
AI server stocks also advanced. Super Micro Computer surged 9.55% after raising its preliminary revenue forecast for the first quarter of fiscal 2027 to $18.5 billion-$19.5 billion from $14.5 billion-$15.5 billion. Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise climbed 5.27% and 3.71%, respectively.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.97%. AMD gained 3.36% and Nvidia added 2.54%, while SK Hynix and Micron Technology advanced 2.48% and 1.96%, respectively. TSMC and Broadcom also finished higher, up 1.60% and 1.03%, respectively.
CoreWeave, by contrast, fell 0.50% after swinging between gains and losses during the session. Netflix dropped 5.31% on disappointment over its third-quarter results. The company narrowed its full-year revenue forecast to $51.1 billion from a prior range of $51 billion-$51.4 billion. Alphabet and Amazon also fell 1.62% and 0.10%, respectively.
Oil prices were mixed. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery settled 0.68% lower at $97.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for December delivery rose 0.03% to $108.82 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe in London. Military tensions in the Middle East and hopes for renewed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine pulled in opposite directions.

Won-denominated stablecoins and preparations for virtual-asset taxation are emerging as major legislative priorities for South Korea’s National Assembly next month. Lawmakers must set the rules for companies to operate and establish the framework for investors to pay taxes, making debate over a Digital Asset Basic Act and tax policy a turning point for the domestic digital-asset market.
The National Assembly’s Political Affairs Committee plans to begin reviewing the Digital Asset Basic Act at a bill-review subcommittee next month, with the goal of passing it within the year. A tax subcommittee under the committee handling fiscal and economic planning will also discuss the timing of virtual-asset taxation, which is scheduled to take effect in January. One track centers on market regulation and the other on taxes, but both address the broader task of bringing the market into the formal system.
The government is also emphasizing the link between the two issues. Kwon Dae-young, first vice minister of economy and finance, told a meeting of industry officials and experts on Oct. 20 that tax principles can take root in the market only if tax infrastructure and a market-regulation framework are put in place together. The comment suggests authorities see tools to track transactions and secure market trust as essential before taxes are imposed.
For won stablecoins, the central issue is an issuance structure that combines financial stability with private-sector business capacity. One option under discussion would require banks to hold at least 50% plus one share in a consortium, while fintech companies argue that non-bank firms also need room to participate. A key question is how to make use of technological capabilities and distribution networks as authorities define issuance eligibility and governance rules.
Shin Hyun-song, governor of the Bank of Korea, said at a parliamentary audit on Oct. 12 that he is “basically in favor” of private issuance. Financial Services Commission Chairman Lee Eok-won said on Oct. 8 that authorities would move quickly in consultations to prepare how to guide the industry and the broader market. Abroad, KRWQ, a won-pegged token launched in October 2025, is already in circulation, underscoring the need to create an institutional path for domestic projects.
On taxation, the key issue is how fairly and accurately authorities can track domestic and overseas transactions. Limits on securing records of offshore trading and the absence of loss carryforward deductions are among the issues cited for improvement. Under the current timetable, starting next year, authorities would impose a 22% tax, including local taxes, on annual virtual-asset income above 2.5 million won ($1,800).
Lawmakers in both the ruling and opposition parties are continuing to push for an adjustment to the implementation schedule based on the state of preparations. Park Min-gyu of the Democratic Party proposed an amendment to delay taxation until 2029, citing the US timetable for joining the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, or CARF, for automatic information exchange. Park Soo-young of the People Power Party said on Oct. 21 that authorities should not “kick away the ladder” for young people trying to build wealth, adding that he would pursue bipartisan talks on a delay. The government has yet to set out a final position.
The Political Affairs Committee is expected to discuss issuers and business requirements for won stablecoins as part of its review of the basic law next month. The tax subcommittee under the fiscal and economic planning committee will examine proposals to adjust the start date for taxation. The detailed timetable for institutionalization will hinge on when the government submits its proposal and the outcome of talks between the two parties.

President Donald Trump said he plans to spend more than $400 million before next month's Nov. 3 midterm elections, ramping up rallies and advertising in battleground states as Republicans fight to hold their Senate majority.
Trump wrote on Truth Social on Oct. 20 that more than $400 million would be spent by Election Day. Pro-Trump super PACs, including MAGA Inc., have already poured in more than $200 million since September, and about another $200 million remains, according to the article.
The Republican defensive strategy is focused on Senate battleground states. While Democrats are forecast to have the edge in the House, the Senate could be split 50-50 between the two parties. In that scenario, Republicans would retain control through the vice president's tie-breaking vote. If Democrats win 51 seats, they would take control of the Senate.
Trump is scheduled to visit Kansas, Iowa and Florida this week, followed by campaign stops in Georgia and Michigan next week. He also plans to return to Texas before the election. Ad spending is likewise being concentrated in other battlegrounds seen as more winnable than North Carolina.
Trump has also repeatedly pushed a cash-payment pledge aimed at voters. He promised to give $5,000 to every adult, though the proposal's feasibility has been questioned because the total cost would come to about $1.3 trillion. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is also joining campaign events and announcing major investment plans.
In the poll cited in the article, Trump's job approval rating stood at 31%, down 1 percentage point from two weeks earlier. Voter preference by party was 47% for Democrats and 35% for Republicans. Still, those figures alone are not enough to determine the election outcome because details such as the polling firm and survey period were not provided.

Shares of SpaceX, the space company led by Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, surged in early trading.
SpaceX was trading around $165 on October 21, up about 12% from the previous session, according to TradingView. It marked the stock’s first gain of more than 10% in about two months, since August.
The rally followed third-quarter earnings and news that the company is reviewing a merger with Tesla. SpaceX said on October 20 that third-quarter net income came to $4.4 billion, more than double the market forecast of $1.88 billion.
On the same day’s earnings conference call, Musk said Tesla and SpaceX had each set up a special committee to review a merger.
Following the news, JPMorgan raised its price target on SpaceX to $500 from $240. It maintained its Overweight rating.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency will assess the legality of stablecoin reward programs on a case-by-case basis.
CoinDesk reported on October 21 that the OCC released the final implementing rule for the GENIUS Act, the U.S. stablecoin law, that day. The rule will take effect on January 18, 2027.
The main issue is stablecoin rewards. The GENIUS Act prohibits issuers from paying customers interest or other returns solely for holding, using or maintaining payment stablecoins.
The OCC said it will apply the law based on the facts and specific circumstances of each reward program. Some rewards could be allowed if part of the payment is made for reasons other than those explicitly barred under the GENIUS Act. The agency did not provide specific examples of which reward structures would be permitted or prohibited.
The OCC also ruled out automatically treating existing reward programs as lawful. It said it would not presume that stablecoin reward programs in operation before the GENIUS Act was enacted comply with the law.
A provision in the draft rule that would have presumed some reward practices to be violations was removed from the final version. That means the OCC will review each program's operating model and payout structure individually rather than make blanket judgments on certain reward types.

SK Hynix has completed a $28.9 billion share buyback.
The company said on Oct. 21 that it had finished repurchasing $28.9 billion worth of its own shares on South Korea's Kospi market over the past two months.
SK Hynix had previously said it would spend about $28.9 billion to buy back 24.07 million shares and cancel all of them. The 24.07 million shares represent about 3.3% of its outstanding stock, making it one of the largest treasury-share cancellations by a listed South Korean company.
SK Hynix had originally disclosed a buyback period from Aug. 20 to Nov. 19. The repurchase was completed about a month ahead of schedule.
The company plans to announce additional shareholder return measures when it reports third-quarter earnings on Oct. 28.

Binance.US, the US arm of global cryptocurrency exchange Binance, is seeking to enter the domestic prediction market.
The Financial Times reported on October 21 that Binance.US recently applied to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for authorization to offer prediction market services. The newspaper also reported that Blockchain.com, a UK crypto company, filed for the same approval last week.
Crypto firms have been accelerating their push into prediction markets. Bullish, a US cryptocurrency exchange, recently applied to the CFTC for approval to offer prediction market services. Coinbase partnered with Kalshi earlier this year.
The prediction market industry is growing rapidly. Combined monthly trading volume at Kalshi and Polymarket jumped more than fourfold to $72 billion in September from $17 billion in January, according to The Block. By contrast, spot cryptocurrency trading volume fell 18% over the same period.
"Retail-focused platforms are broadening their product offerings to retain existing customers and attract new ones," Patrick Moley, a senior research analyst at Piper Sandler, said. He added that offering other products helps companies weather the "crypto winter."

South Korea’s People Power Party plans to hold talks with the Democratic Party on delaying taxation of virtual assets, or cryptocurrencies, scheduled to take effect in January 2027.
Digital Asset reported on October 21 that Park Soo-young, deputy policy committee chair of the People Power Party, made the remarks to reporters after a press conference at the National Assembly Communication Hall in Seoul’s Yeouido district.
He was cautious about the chances of a bipartisan agreement. Although a bill to postpone the tax has also been proposed within the Democratic Party, the party has not yet adopted an official position. Park said it was still difficult to predict what conclusion would emerge from the bill review scheduled for November.
The People Power Party cited the state of preparedness of the tax system and fairness relative to other financial assets as the main issues. It argues that pushing ahead with taxation on crypto income after scrapping the financial investment income tax would be inequitable. The party also said a delay was needed because tax standards, revenue estimates and exchange systems related to the levy were not yet fully in place.
Park held the press conference with six young crypto investors who called for a postponement. He said the Democratic Party should also take their concerns into account and discuss securing additional time to refine the system, rather than enforcing the tax before institutional preparations are complete.
Cho Sang-hyuk, attending as a representative of the young investors, said they were not opposing taxation itself. He said institutional improvements should come first to ensure fair tax payments. Cho called for the start of the tax to be delayed by at least two years so the framework could be strengthened, including loss carryforwards, profit-and-loss offsetting and basic deductions.
With lawmakers from both the ruling and opposition parties having introduced bills to defer the crypto tax, the preparedness of the tax infrastructure and fairness among investors are set to be major issues in the upcoming legislative review process.

Bitcoin neared $83,000 as strong earnings from U.S. technology companies improved sentiment toward risk assets.
Bitcoin traded around $82,700 during Asian hours on October 21, up 1.3%, CoinDesk reported. Strong results from SpaceX and Super Micro Computer revived enthusiasm for artificial intelligence-related investments, lifting both Asian equities and digital assets.
Among major cryptocurrencies, Zcash posted the biggest gain. It surged 11% to about $1,260 after the activation block height for its next network upgrade, NU7, was finalized. The upgrade will shorten block times to 25 seconds from 75 seconds, tripling transaction confirmation speed. It will also allocate 60% of transaction fees to reserves for phased distribution. The upgrade has been running on testnet since early October.
Other major cryptocurrencies also rose. Hyperliquid and Dogecoin each gained more than 3%, while XRP climbed about 3% to $1.33. Ether traded around $2,450, up 2%, while BNB and Solana added 1% to 2%.
Asian stocks also advanced, led by technology shares. South Korea's Kospi rose 3.7%, while Taiwan's Taiex gained 1.4%. SpaceX and Super Micro Computer climbed 8% and 16%, respectively, in after-hours trading, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose 1%. Australia-based data center developer NextDC, however, plunged 40% after lowering its earnings outlook.
Macro uncertainty remains. Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel as concerns over supply disruptions grew after an attack on a vessel near the Strait of Hormuz. The possibility of a further decline in U.S. crude inventories also added pressure on oil prices. The dollar strengthened slightly, while U.S. Treasuries gave back part of the previous day's gains.
Separately, digital-asset manager Hashdex said Bitcoin's bear market may be nearing its final stretch when compared with past cycles. As of September 30, the downturn had lasted 359 days, close to the 361-day, 377-day and 411-day bear markets seen since 2011, according to its analysis. The share of Bitcoin held by short-term holders also fell to 16% of total supply, the lowest level since January 2023.
Markets are also focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting scheduled for October 27-28. Whether Bitcoin can reclaim $84,000 before the meeting will be a key test of whether the short-term rally can continue.

US spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds continued to draw net inflows.
According to Trader T on October 21, the 12 US spot-Bitcoin ETFs recorded combined net inflows of $23.19 million in the previous session. That marked a second straight trading day of net inflows.
BlackRock's IBIT led with $29.9 million in inflows. Fidelity's FBTC added $3.58 million.
Bitwise's BITB, by contrast, posted $10.29 million in outflows. The remaining products saw no net flows. Despite the day's inflows, cumulative flows for October remained negative. US spot-Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of $65.1 million so far this month.
For 2026 as a whole, however, the broader inflow trend remains intact. Cumulative net inflows since the start of the year stood at $865.3 million.

South Korea’s National Assembly Strategy and Finance Committee, reviewing a public petition to abolish taxation on virtual assets due to take effect in January, said reversing course again could undermine the credibility of tax policy.
A review report on the petition, released on October 21, said the committee examined the issue in terms of tax fairness, investor protection and market impact. The petition was referred to parliament in May after receiving 50,910 signatures. Petitioners argued that it is unreasonable to tax only virtual-asset income after the financial investment income tax was scrapped, and called for the system to be abolished.
The report highlighted that the virtual-asset tax has already been postponed three times. Scrapping a tax regime originally set for introduction in 2022 could weaken the consistency of earlier legislative decisions, it said. Reversing a tax policy finalized through discussions including the National Assembly’s tax subcommittee could also erode confidence in policy and create instability in the crypto market.
Still, the committee found some merit in investors’ concerns over tax fairness. General capital gains on domestically listed shares are typically exempt from tax, while income from virtual assets would be taxed after an annual basic deduction of 2.5 million won. Even so, the report said it may not be appropriate to assess virtual-asset taxation as directly linked to the abolished financial investment income tax. It added that whether the crypto market should receive the same policy support as the stock market requires separate discussion.
The committee also reviewed concerns about the potential impact on market activity and on younger investors’ ability to build assets. Data from the Korea Financial Intelligence Unit showed the domestic virtual-asset market’s capitalization totaled 87.2 trillion won in the second half of last year, down 21.1% from a year earlier. The report acknowledged that implementing the tax could weigh on investor sentiment and burden younger investors seeking to build wealth. But it said further judgment is needed to determine whether that justifies abolishing the tax itself.
On loss carryforwards, the report stressed that the policy rationale for the financial investment income tax differed from that for virtual-asset taxation. Under the virtual-asset tax regime, only gains and losses generated within the same year can be netted out, meaning losses from previous years cannot be deducted from profits in later years. By contrast, the now-abolished financial investment income tax allowed loss carryforwards for up to five years to foster risk capital. The report said that system was not adopted for virtual assets because of concerns over encouraging speculative trading.
The government told parliament it is strengthening the information-gathering systems needed to enforce the tax. The Ministry of Economy and Finance plans to launch an integrated analysis system for virtual-asset transaction data by the end of this year. Starting in 2027, it also plans to obtain overseas transaction data through the Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, or CARF. On that basis, the government said taxation of domestic and overseas virtual-asset transactions can proceed as scheduled.
Separate bills are pending in the National Assembly, including one from lawmaker Song Eon-seok that would abolish the virtual-asset tax and others from lawmakers Jeong Seong-guk, Kim Sang-hoon and Park Min-gyu that seek to delay implementation. The committee is set to address issues related to virtual-asset taxation during a comprehensive parliamentary audit of the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the National Tax Service on October 22.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold a public event to discuss how artificial intelligence is affecting derivatives markets and financial regulation.
The CFTC said on October 20 that its innovation task force will host the first session of its Frontier Forum series on October 28. The meeting will examine the use of AI in financial markets and the regulatory issues tied to the technology.
The forum will focus on changes AI could bring to trading structures and operating models in derivatives markets. It will also look at how broader adoption of AI may affect price discovery and risk management.
The CFTC is also paying attention to the potential impact of superintelligence on financial markets. Commissioner Mike Selig said the technology could fundamentally reshape markets, underscoring the need to closely monitor its development and its effects on market activity.
Executives from AI and financial technology companies will also attend. Leaders from Ornn, Architect and Liquid Compute are set to discuss possible applications of AI in financial markets and related issues.
Regulatory issues surrounding automated trading using AI agents will also be a key topic. The CFTC plans to review how AI agents that execute trades on behalf of investors could operate under the current derivatives regulatory framework.
The forum is the first in a series of meetings being organized by the CFTC's innovation task force. The agency did not announce any specific rule revisions or plans for new regulations, saying the session is intended to address AI's market impact and related regulatory questions.

<Today’s Key Economic Events>
▶︎ Oct. 21 (Wed.): △U.K. September consumer price index (CPI) (2 a.m. U.S. time, 3 p.m. Korea time) △U.S. crude oil inventories (10:30 a.m. U.S. time, 11:30 p.m. Korea time)
<Today’s Key Cryptocurrency Events>
▶︎ Oct. 21 (Wed.): △Solana (SOL) Alpenglow upgrade to be applied on mainnet

Elon Musk, the chief executive officer of Tesla Inc. and SpaceX, said special committees have been formed at both companies to examine a possible merger.
Bloomberg reported on October 20 that Musk made the disclosure during SpaceX’s earnings webcast. He said each company had set up a special committee to discuss a potential combination, though no agreement has been reached on specific terms.
Musk said combining the two companies would offer substantial benefits, particularly through synergies in the development of artificial superintelligence software. Because he is a conflicted party, he said, he is not directly participating in the committees’ discussions.
If completed, the deal would unite Tesla’s electric-vehicle, energy and robotics businesses with SpaceX’s launch and satellite-internet operations. It could also deepen cooperation in areas including data centers and autonomous vehicles, with AI development at the center.
The two companies have a combined valuation of about $3.5 trillion. SpaceX is valued at about $2 trillion, while Tesla is valued at about $1.5 trillion. A merger, if completed, could become the largest corporate deal in history. After the merger review disclosure and the earnings release, SpaceX shares rose 4.6% in after-hours trading, while Tesla gained 1.2%.
The companies are already closely linked commercially. SpaceX has purchased more than $100 million worth of Tesla Cybertrucks, and Musk’s AI company xAI is also a major customer for Tesla’s large-scale energy storage systems. Since SpaceX went public through an initial public offering this year, speculation about a merger with Tesla has persisted.
Musk stressed that no merger has been finalized. He said it would be an overstatement to treat a combination of the two companies as a done deal and emphasized that shareholder approval would be required. In Tesla’s case, he said, the transaction would need support from more than 50% of all shareholders, not merely a majority of those who vote.

Bitcoin is holding a key support level around $82,500, with price volatility seen increasing around the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Oct. 28, crypto market maker Wintermute said.
In a market report released on Oct. 20, Wintermute said Bitcoin has traded near $82,500 for more than three weeks. The firm said the level had acted as resistance during the advance but is now serving as support.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $82,500 last week before recovering and posting a weekly close back above the level, Wintermute said. A decisive break above $87,000 could signal further upside, while a clear move below $82,500 could turn the level back into resistance and open the way for a drop to the low-$70,000 range.
The recent macroeconomic backdrop has weighed on Bitcoin. US consumer prices rose 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% previously, while core CPI increased 0.3% from the prior month, above market expectations for 0.2%.
Concerns over artificial intelligence-related investment also pressured sentiment toward risk assets. The Nasdaq fell 5.52% over the past week, while Bitcoin slipped 1.99%, indicating relative resilience. Wintermute highlighted Bitcoin’s outperformance of about 3.5 percentage points versus the Nasdaq.
Interest-rate expectations were also identified as a key variable. Markets treat a hold at the Oct. 28 FOMC meeting as the base case and are pricing in about a 15% to 17% chance of a rate increase. Wintermute added that a hawkish hold from the Federal Reserve could bring forward expectations for a December rate hike and send Treasury yields higher again.
Altcoins have remained weaker than Bitcoin. Major altcoins fell an average 5.69% over the past week, while capital appeared to rotate out of altcoins and into larger cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ether.
Wintermute said the risk-reward profile currently looks more attractive in Bitcoin and Ether than in altcoins. A broader altcoin rally is more likely to resume only after Bitcoin rises first, it added.
The firm also said implied volatility in the options market remains low. With the FOMC meeting, the US midterm elections and third-quarter corporate earnings ahead, Wintermute said the narrow trading range centered on $82,500 is likely to break soon.

Soaring US Treasury yields are putting Bitcoin’s “Uptober” — the market’s term for a typically strong October — to the test. Market participants say the end of this month, when major economies including the US and Japan decide interest rates, could be a turning point for Bitcoin’s price direction.
According to CoinMarketCap on Oct. 20, Bitcoin was trading in the $81,000 range, down about 1.6% from a day earlier. That was nearly 3% lower than a week earlier. The token has fallen about 2.2% so far this month.
Expectations for a typical October rally have also faded. Alternative’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a gauge of investor sentiment, fell to 55 on Oct. 20 from 74 on Oct. 1, a drop of nearly 20 points.
Over the same period, the probability on US prediction market Kalshi that Bitcoin would top $87,500 this month slumped to 26% from 72%. If the current trend continues, 2026 would become only the fourth year after 2014, 2018 and 2025 in which Bitcoin ends October in the red.
A fresh climb in Treasury yields is one reason Bitcoin has struggled even during Uptober. According to the US Treasury Department, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.15% on Oct. 19, matching levels last seen in 2007 before the global financial crisis. The five-year yield also rose to 4.94%, nearing 5%.
Bond-Market Stability Is a Condition for Gains
The problem is that rising Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of investing in Bitcoin. If investors can earn higher returns from safe-haven US government debt, demand for risk assets such as Bitcoin is bound to be spread more thinly.
That helps explain why investors have recently turned to Treasuries as concerns spread over debt burdens at US artificial intelligence companies. Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital said stability in the bond market is a key condition for Bitcoin’s upward momentum. Broad deleveraging in equities, if it persists, could spill into crypto markets and threaten support at $80,000, it added.
The same backdrop has been reflected in US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, a barometer of institutional money flows. According to SoSoValue, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows for two straight weeks.
A combined $910 million was pulled from US Bitcoin ETFs during that period. So far this month, cumulative outflows have reached $90 million, increasing the chances that October will post the first monthly net outflow since July, after three months.
Buying Base Also Remains Fragile
Concern is also growing that elevated interest rates will persist. In a recent Wall Street Journal survey of 71 economists, one in four said the US 10-year Treasury yield would exceed 5% by year-end. One-third said yields above 5% would continue into next year.
Markets are focused on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision scheduled for Oct. 27-28. CME FedWatch showed an 82.8% probability as of Oct. 20 that the Fed would leave rates unchanged this month. The Bank of Japan is also due to announce its rate decision on Oct. 30, an event closely watched because of its connection to the yen carry trade, in which investors borrow cheap yen to buy higher-yielding assets.
Against that backdrop, some analysts argue the foundation for fresh Bitcoin buying remains unstable. A CryptoQuant contributor at XWIN Japan said broad-based buying has yet to emerge among whales, or large investors. For a sustained recovery, spot demand growth must stay consistently positive and accumulation needs to spread across a broader range of investor groups. The key question, the contributor said, is whether a durable buying base can form to support the next upswing.

Whale accumulation of XRP has shrunk to its weakest level in the past five years, according to an on-chain analysis.
On Oct. 20, on-chain analyst Darkfost wrote on X that the 90-day moving average of XRP flowing from Binance to whale wallets had fallen to about $49.7 million. That is the lowest level since October 2021.
Large transfers from exchanges to external wallets are typically used as a gauge of whale accumulation.
According to Darkfost, XRP whale outflows rose to about $3.5 billion on a 90-day moving average basis in February 2025. At the time, daily outflows exceeded $10 billion on several occasions.
Since then, whale outflows have continued to decline, falling to their lowest level in five years. Darkfost wrote that whales' interest in XRP is gradually fading and that they may be waiting for a price level attractive enough to re-enter.
He also said XRP's relatively resilient price performance during the current bear market helps explain the slowdown in accumulation. Prices may not have fallen far enough to trigger the kind of large-scale buying seen in 2022 and 2023.
Darkfost added that over the long term, XRP could face insufficient buy-side trading volume if whale demand does not return. He also said trend reversals sometimes occur when trading volume and market interest have both fallen sharply, making it difficult to determine XRP's future price direction based on this indicator alone.

Interview with Nick See Tong, Base’s head of Asia-Pacific
Building on-chain financial infrastructure linking trading, payments and lending beyond exchanges
Use of Base expands to global companies including JPMorgan and Shopify
Targeting AI agent payments, with a focus on micropayments and agentic commerce
“Korea is a market with strong trading demand” — expectations for stock and stablecoin partnerships
“Coinbase ultimately sees a future where all assets move on-chain and trade 24 hours a day,” Nick See Tong, Base’s head of Asia-Pacific, told Bloomingbit in an interview published on Oct. 20. “Base is aimed at connecting trading, payments and finance on a single on-chain infrastructure so institutions and developers can build new services on top of it. We also see AI agents joining as new economic actors, which will broaden the use of on-chain finance.”
He said use cases in the on-chain economy are expanding rapidly, from tokenized institutional assets to AI agent-based payments. In Korea, he sees strong potential for stock tokenization, stablecoins and partnerships with major platform companies.
Base is an open blockchain network incubated by U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase. It is building infrastructure that connects trading, payments and financial services on-chain, drawing on Coinbase’s institutional and user base.
Why Coinbase Built Base: Beyond an Exchange, Toward Financial Infrastructure
Coinbase created Base to build on-chain financial infrastructure that would be difficult to deliver through a centralized exchange alone. The network initially grew on Optimism’s technology. This year, it shifted to its own operating stack to improve scalability and take direct control of upgrades and its technology roadmap, expanding its role as an independent public on-chain infrastructure. Base is targeting an open, permissionless network that outside developers and financial institutions can join freely.
With its own on-chain network, Base can connect functions that are typically separated in traditional finance — trading, payments and lending — around a single asset. That can also lower costs and barriers to entry. See Tong cited some structured finance products as an example: at banks, minimum deal sizes can run from $100,000 to $200,000 because of operational, settlement and legal costs. On-chain, those processes become automated and programmable, allowing transactions to be split into smaller units.
The model also shortens the time needed to trade and deploy capital compared with traditional finance. In conventional markets, he said, it can take four to five days to sell one stock, wait for settlement, convert the currency and buy another. On-chain, swaps can happen immediately.
The same applies to lending against a stock portfolio. At banks, loan-to-value reviews can take three to four days. On-chain, collateral can be posted and a loan issued within seconds. In finance, he added, time is money, making speed one of the biggest advantages.
“JPMorgan, AmEx and Shopify Are Also on Base” as Institutional On-Chain Adoption Widens
Institutional adoption is another core focus for Base. See Tong said he is seeing more institutions, particularly in Asia, trying to access on-chain markets. As institutions begin to recognize greater regulatory clarity for crypto in the U.S., Asian firms are also starting to pay closer attention to the use cases for on-chain infrastructure. Another key driver is tokenization, which can widen distribution for financial products to global markets.
Base is also strengthening the tools needed to bring institutional assets on-chain. One example is B20, a framework developed by Base. It is designed to let institutions embed required compliance conditions — including know-your-customer checks and sanctions screening — when tokenizing stocks, stablecoins and other assets.
“When large-scale assets move on-chain, preventing money laundering, terrorist financing and flows to sanctioned countries is a critical issue for institutions,” he said. “Base Chain’s role is to ensure institutions do not have to build that infrastructure themselves from scratch.”
Participation by global companies is also increasing. See Tong pointed to JPMorgan’s tokenized deposits for institutions, Shopify’s USDC payments and efforts involving American Express. Global finance and payments companies are building products and services on Base, he said, calling that evidence of the utility of open, permissionless blockchains.
“Now AI Agents Spend Money Themselves” as Base Bets on Micropayments and Agentic Commerce
Another area Base is watching is the on-chain market that could emerge as AI agents become new economic actors. “In the past, there was digital money, but there was no economic actor that could use it on its own,” See Tong said. “AI agents could become the bridge that drives blockchain into the mainstream.”
Blockchain provides the foundation for agents to access programmable digital assets and execute transactions and payments directly, he said. AI agents are software systems that can carry out a range of tasks on their own, from e-commerce and price searches to trading and payments.
To support that shift, Coinbase has also developed x402, its own protocol for AI agent payments. At the heart of the technology is stablecoin-based micropayments, which let users pay only for the services they need, when they need them. If an AI agent uses a pricing-data API, for example, it could call for the information once and pay automatically only for that use rather than paying a monthly subscription fee. That differs from subscription-based payments because AI can access and pay for multiple datasets and services in small amounts as needed.
Base also puts builders at the center of its technology ecosystem. The goal is to expand the network’s value by growing the developer base and the number of services. “Base’s DNA is builders, and the most important thing is supporting developers who create good apps and innovation,” he said. In that environment, meme coins are also starting to expand beyond pure speculation into real services. More recently, there have been attempts to add utility to meme coins through concepts such as “stock memes” linked to tokenized equities.
“Korea Is a Market With Strong Trading Demand” as Base Eyes Stock Tokenization and Platform Partnerships
Base is highly interested in Korea as it focuses on expanding tokenized assets such as U.S. stocks. “Korea is a market with very strong demand for crypto and stock trading,” he said. “We hope that, going forward, Korean stocks such as SK Hynix and Samsung can also come on-chain.”
He also said Korea has strong potential at the intersection of agentic capabilities and trading. AI agents could analyze the financial statements of hundreds or thousands of micro-cap companies around the world and identify companies worth a closer look.
See Tong also signaled interest in working with major Korean platform companies such as Kakao and Line. “We would like to partner with major brands such as Kakao and Line,” he said. “These companies already have large distribution networks, so there could be many forms of integration, including payments and on-chain access.”
Coinbase has 100 million users who have completed KYC checks and could potentially be reached through such partnerships, he added, saying collaboration with Base and Coinbase could help Asian companies access a global user base.
He also expressed interest in won-denominated stablecoins, which are under discussion in Korea. “For now, we are waiting for legal and regulatory clarity,” he said. “If stablecoins launch on Base, we would be willing to support their growth and integration into a range of services, and we would also like to work with the South Korean government.”
He added that B20, developed by Base, is an asset standard that can reflect regulatory requirements in programmable form and could also be applied to stablecoins.
For now, Base plans to accelerate the expansion of tokenized stocks. “Over the next several months, our goal is to bring about 10 new stocks on-chain each day and secure more than 100 tokenized stocks by year-end,” See Tong said. “After that, we want to bring thousands, and ultimately tens of thousands, of stocks on-chain.”
Base is also working with market makers and liquidity providers to supply liquidity for those assets, he added.
Kang Min-seung, Bloomingbit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io