parlay

InGame analysis confirms: since Kalshi launched parlays in September 2025, takers have lost $1.004 billion.
The math:
· Net prediction losses: $608.9 million
· Fees paid: $400 million
· Total taker stakes: $7.1 billion
Who won: Market makers netted $519.8 million after fees. Kalshi only started charging maker fees on Aug. 20—before that, makers kept nearly the entire spread .
When it got worse: Almost half of all taker losses occurred in the eight weeks since the 2026 NFL season kicked off. The Oct. 31–Nov. 1 weekend alone: ~$200M staked, >$17M lost .
The structural problem: Non-correlated parlays—multi-game combos—drove $579.5 million in losses. Retail users on the app can only take the yes side. Market makers quote via automated RFQ with seconds to respond. Retail has no order book to work, no price improvement, and pays taker fees on top .
This isn't variance. It's the business model.
#Kalshi #PredictionMarkets #Parlay #MarketStructure