Dmex01

$BTC is currently trading around 78,360 USDT, showing clear signs of weakness on the daily chart. The overall market structure remains bearish, as BTC continues to form lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are still in control. At the moment, patience and confirmation are more important than rushing into trades. Trend & Moving Averages BTC is trading below all major moving averages, which confirms a strong downtrend:
MA(7): ~84,700MA(25): ~89,800MA(99): ~92,900The price being below MA(7), MA(25), and MA(99) shows that short-term, mid-term, and long-term momentum are all bearish. Additionally, MA(7) has crossed downward, which often signals continued selling pressure unless the price reclaims this level quickly.Key Support LevelsSupport zones are critical for identifying potential buying opportunities:75,700 – 76,000 USDT. This is a strong demand zone where price has already reacted. Buyers may attempt to defend this level.72,000 – 73,000 USDTIf the first support breaks, this zone becomes the next potential accumulation area.68,000 – 70,000 USDTA major weekly support zone.
If BTC reaches this area, long-term buyers are likely to show interest. Resistance Levels will face strong resistance at the following levels:80,000 – 81,000 USDT84,500 – 85,000 USDT (near MA(7))90,000+ USDT (trend reversal zone)A daily close above these resistance levels is required to shift market sentiment from bearish to bullish.Volume AnalysisRecent candles show high red volume, which indicates panic selling. However, the latest candles show decreasing volume, suggesting that selling pressure may be slowing down. This often happens near support zones and can lead to a short-term bounce, but volume confirmation is still needed.Buy StrategiesStrategy
1: Support-Based Buy (Aggressive)Buy only if BTC holds above 75,700 and shows rejection from this zone. Entry: 76,000 – 77,000Stop Loss: Below 74,800Targets: 82,000 – 84,000, then 88,000Strategy 2: Confirmation Buy (Safer)Wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
Conditions:Daily candle closes above 80,500Price reclaims MA(7)Entry: 80,500 – 81,000Targets: 85,000 → 89,000Risk Management & DCA PlanFor spot traders, a DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) strategy reduces risk:30% at 76k30% at 73k40% at 70k (only if price drops)Avoid using high leverage and never invest full capital in one entry.
Final Verdict BTC remains in a downtrend, but it is approaching a strong support zone. This is not a confirmed buy yet. The safest approach is to either buy near support with confirmation or wait for a breakout above 80.5k. In current conditions, patience and risk management are key to long-term success.
$BTC

($BTC)
Bitcoin the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, failed to hold its early January recovery momentum as sellers took control toward the month’s close. After printing a monthly high near $97,000, BTC reversed sharply and ended January 31, 2026, with a deep wick toward $75,722, marking a 6.20% decline in the last 24 hours and roughly a 10% drop year-to-date, while also setting a fresh yearly low.The sudden downside move rattled market sentiment and triggered heavy forced selling across the crypto market. In the last 24 hours alone, total crypto liquidations surged to nearly $2.58 billion, highlighting how overcrowded bullish positioning had become.Source: CoinmarketcapBitcoin Spot ETF slumps in JanuaryAccording to the latest data from SoSoValue, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net outflow of approximately $1.61 billion in January 2026, marking one of the weakest monthly performances since approval.Despite the outflows, cumulative net inflows still stand strong near $55.01 billion, with total net assets around $106.96 billion.
However, the January data clearly shows that institutional demand cooled significantly during the month, adding pressure to BTC’s price action and accelerating the correction.Source: SosovalueHistorically, sharp ETF outflow months often coincide with local fear phases, rather than long-term trend reversals — especially when broader market structure remains intact.Key bullish fractal to watch outLooking at the latest fractal comparison chart shared by crypto analyst Benjamin, Bitcoin’s current structure appears to mirror previous consolidation phases seen in major risk assets like Google (GOOG) and NVIDIA (NVDA) before their continuation rallies.On the weekly timeframe, BTC is still respecting its broader uptrend while pulling back toward a critical horizontal demand zone near $74,494. In past cycles, similar corrective moves — following strong impulsive rallies — have acted as reset phases, allowing the market to absorb supply before pushing higher.Bitcoin (BTC) Fractal Chart/Credits: @intocryptoverse (X)This fractal suggests that the ongoing pullback could be a healthy consolidation, rather than the start of a prolonged bearish trend, as long as BTC continues to defend this key support region.
What February could hold for BitcoinIf Bitcoin manages to hold above the $74,494 support, buyers may gradually step back in as selling pressure exhausts. A stabilization above this level could open the door for a renewed upside attempt toward the $85,000–$90,000 region in February.However, a decisive breakdown below $74,494 would weaken the bullish fractal narrative and could expose $BTC to deeper downside, potentially extending the correction.For now, Bitcoin enters February at a crucial inflection point — shaken by ETF outflows and mass liquidations, yet still holding a structure that bulls will be watching very closely.

Крах рынка криптовалют ускорился в выходные, когда Bitcoin опустился ниже ключевого уровня поддержки в $80,000 впервые за месяцы. В воскресенье он торговался по цене $78,678, резко упав с исторического максимума в $126,300. Цена Ethereum упала до $2,400, в то время как Binance Coin (BNB) упал до $770. Рыночная капитализация всех токенов упала более чем на 5.80% за последние 24 часа до $2.67 триллиона.
Эта статья исследует некоторые из основных причин продолжающегося краха криптовалют. Крах рынка криптовалют произошел после того, как Трамп выдвинул Кевина Уорша. Одна из главных причин продолжающегося краха криптовалютного рынка заключается в том, что Дональд Трамп выдвинул Кевина Уорша на пост председателя Федеральной резервной системы, когда срок полномочий Джерома Пауэлла истечет в мае. Уорш недавно поддержал криптоиндустрию. Однако его поддержка, вероятно, была связана с тем, что он действительно хотел получить должность председателя Федеральной резервной системы, так как ранее он критиковал эту отрасль. То же самое касается его взглядов на процентные ставки. В своих недавних интервью он высказал поддержку более низким процентным ставкам. На самом деле, однако, Уорш всегда был ястребом по процентным ставкам и инфляции. Он голосовал против снижения процентных ставок и политики количественного смягчения в 2011 году. Что наиболее важно, он всегда выступал против количественного смягчения. Поэтому аналитики полагают, что Уорш сохранит ястребиный взгляд, когда он перейдет в Федеральную резервную систему, как это сделал Джером Пауэлл. Резкие ликвидации стали причиной краха криптовалют. Другой основной причиной краха рынка криптовалют стали резкие ликвидации и падение открытого интереса по фьючерсам. Данные, собранные CoinGlass, показывают, что открытый интерес по фьючерсам упал на 10% за последние 24 часа до $113 миллиардов. В то же время ликвидации выросли на 348% за последние 24 часа до более чем $2.5 миллиарда, что стало крупнейшим увеличением за месяцы. Ликвидации Ethereum увеличились до более чем $1.1 миллиарда, в то время как Bitcoin вырос до более чем $785 миллионов. Позиции Solana на сумму более $197 миллионов, в то время как позиции XRP на сумму $61 миллион были ликвидированы. Эти ликвидации напомнили о 10 октября, когда рынок криптовалют испытал крупнейшую ликвидацию за всю историю. Позиции на сумму более $20 миллиардов были стерты 10 октября, когда Дональд Трамп угрожал ввести тарифы на Китай.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) — это спотовый биткойн ETF, который предоставляет инвесторам возможность получить доступ к цене биткойна без прямого владения BTC. Фонд хранит биткойны в холодном хранилище через Coinbase Prime и котируется на бирже NASDAQ. IBIT предлагает ликвидность, регуляторный надзор и простоту для инвесторов, хотя его производительность может зависеть от колебаний цен на биткойн и текущих затрат на управление.Что такое спотовый биткойн ETF?Биржевой инвестиционный фонд (ETF) — это инвестиционный инструмент, который объединяет средства от инвесторов для покупки и удержания портфеля активов, таких как акции, облигации, товары или цифровые активы. ETF торгуются на публичных фондовых биржах в течение дня, предлагая ликвидность, прозрачность и доступность. Они позволяют инвесторам получить доступ к различным рынкам, не управляя основными активами самостоятельно.Спотовый биткойн ETF применяет эту же концепцию к биткойну. Вместо хранения традиционных активов он отслеживает цену биткойна и позволяет инвесторам участвовать в его рынке через регулируемые финансовые платформы. Существуют два основных типа биткойн ETF:Спотовые ETF: Хранят реальные биткойны в депозитарии, чтобы отразить их рыночную цену.Фьючерсные ETF: Отслеживают цену биткойн-фьючерсных контрактов, торгуемых на регулируемых биржах, вместо того чтобы хранить биткойны напрямую.Каждая акция спотового биткойн ETF представляет собой долю биткойна, хранящегося фондом, который хранится у регулируемого хранителя. Цена акции движется в соответствии с рыночной стоимостью биткойна, предлагая инвесторам знакомый и регулируемый способ получить доступ к биткойну.Спотовые биткойн ETF получили регуляторное одобрение в Соединенных Штатах в январе 2024 года, что стало важной вехой для интеграции цифровых активов в традиционные финансы. Их прямой доступ к цене биткойна, в сочетании с регуляторным надзором, привлек растущий интерес как со стороны розничных, так и институциональных инвесторов, стремящихся к простому, соответствующему требованиям способу инвестирования в биткойн.Кто такой BlackRock?BlackRock — это глобальная инвестиционная компания со штаб-квартирой в Нью-Йорке. Основанная в 1988 году, компания предлагает широкий спектр инвестиционных продуктов и финансовых услуг, включая ETF, паевые фонды и решения по управлению портфелем. Фирма работает как с институциональными, так и с индивидуальными клиентами на различных рынках и считается одним из основных участников глобальной инвестиционной отрасли.iShares Bitcoin Trust от BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) — это спотовый биткойн ETF, запущенный BlackRock, одной из ведущих инвестиционных компаний мира. Одобренный Комиссией по ценным бумагам и биржам США (SEC) 11 января 2024 года, IBIT начал торговаться вскоре после этого на NASDAQ, одной из основных фондовых бирж США. Это позволило инвесторам получить доступ к колебаниям цен биткойна, покупая и продавая акции через стандартные брокерские счета. BlackRock изначально подала заявку в SEC 15 июня 2023 года и получила одобрение семь месяцев спустя. Решение SEC стало важной вехой как для крипто-, так и для традиционных финансовых секторов, одобрив 11 спотовых биткойн ETF в один день.После своего запуска IBIT продемонстрировал быстрый рост и высокий спрос со стороны инвесторов. Фонд превысил 1 миллиард долларов США активов в течение первой недели торговли и с тех пор стал крупнейшим биткойн ETF в мире. На октябрь 2025 года IBIT владеет более 800,000 BTC, что составляет примерно 3.8% от общего предложения биткойнов.Как работает IBITСтруктура и управлениеIBIT использует систему создания и погашения, чтобы поддерживать свою цену акций в тесной связи с фактической ценой биткойна. Когда больше инвесторов покупают акции IBIT, выпускаются новые акции, а выручка используется для покупки дополнительных биткойнов.  Когда инвесторы продают, фонд может продать часть своих биткойн-хранений, чтобы обеспечить ликвидность. Этот процесс помогает убедиться, что рыночная цена ETF точно отражает стоимость его основных биткойнов. Фонд взимает управление в размере 0.25% в год, что покрывает операционные и административные расходы.Хранение и безопасностьBlackRock сотрудничает с Coinbase Custody Trust Company, также известной как Coinbase Prime, для хранения биткойнов фонда. Активы хранятся в холодном хранилище, что означает, что они полностью оффлайн, чтобы минимизировать риск взлома или несанкционированного доступа. Биткойны IBIT хранятся в сегрегированных кошельках, отдельно от собственных хранений Coinbase, что обеспечивает ясное владение и прозрачность. Каждый кошелек защищен многофакторной авторизацией, требующей нескольких одобрений для любого перевода. Регулярные аудиты кибербезопасности также проводятся для поддержания целостности и безопасности активов фонда.Инвесторы, которые держат акции IBIT, не обязаны управлять какими-либо закрытыми ключами биткойна или хранением напрямую, так как хранитель ETF контролирует все процессы безопасности и восстановления.Эталонное ценообразованиеЧтобы точно отслеживать цену биткойна, IBIT использует CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR). Этот эталон рассчитывает среднюю дневную цену биткойна по нескольким основным криптовалютным биржам. Он помогает предотвратить временные колебания цен или неравномерности на одной бирже, влияющие на общую стоимость ETF.Ключевые особенности Доступность: IBIT предоставляет инвесторам доступ к биткойну через традиционные брокерские счета, устраняя необходимость в кошельках или прямом хранении криптоактивов.Ликвидность: Будучи одним из наиболее активно торгуемых биткойн ETF, IBIT предлагает глубокую ликвидность и эффективное ценообразование.Регулируемая инфраструктура: Управляемый BlackRock под надзором SEC, IBIT функционирует в прозрачной, соответствующей требованиям структуры с Coinbase в качестве регулируемого хранителя.Хранение и безопасность: Все биткойны, обеспечивающие IBIT, хранятся оффлайн в холодном хранении Coinbase Custody. Активы защищены через сегрегированные кошельки, многофакторную авторизацию и регулярные аудиты безопасности. Риски и соображенияХотя IBIT предоставляет альтернативный и регулируемый способ получения доступа к биткойну, важно понимать присущие риски:Рыночная волатильность: Биткойн остается высоко волатильным, поэтому инвесторы ETF подвержены его ценовым колебаниям.Регуляторные изменения: Будущие обновления законодательства о криптовалюте или финансовых регуляциях могут повлиять на работу биткойн ETF или налогообложение.Риски хранения и контрагента: Биткойн, хранящийся в IBIT, хранится Coinbase Custody. Хотя он регулируется и имеет сильные меры безопасности, ни одна система не полностью свободна от риска.Налоговые последствия: Прибыль от продажи акций IBIT может облагаться налогом на прирост капитала, аналогично прямому владению биткойном. Конкретное налогообложение будет зависеть от законодательства каждой страны и может различаться в зависимости от юрисдикции.

Bitcoin has experienced a major capitulation move, crashing aggressively from the 84k region down to the 75,500 support, where heavy volume and long downside wicks appeared. This type of move signals panic selling and seller exhaustion, not a healthy continuation dump. Since touching that low, $BTC has stabilized and is now trading back above 78k, showing that buyers are stepping in and defending the lower zone. At the moment, Bitcoin is not in a confirmed bullish trend, but it is also no longer in free fall. The market is transitioning into a post-crash recovery and consolidation phase. Price is currently holding inside the 77,500–79,500 range, which is acting as a balance area. As long as BTC stays above 77,000, the probability favors continued sideways-to-up recovery rather than another immediate collapse.On the upside, if BTC can hold this base and push higher, the next resistance zones sit at 80,500–81,200, followed by a major supply zone at 83,000–84,000. These levels are expected to attract strong selling pressure again, so upside moves should be traded cautiously with partial profit-taking. This is still a recovery move, not a trend reversal.On the downside, losing 77,000 would weaken the structure and expose 75,500 again. A clean break below that level would invalidate the recovery and open deeper downside toward the low-70k region.What to do now:Longs should only be considered above support with tight risk and modest targets. Shorts should not be added near current support and are better planned near resistance. If you are flat, patience is key — the best trades will come after confirmation, not inside this decision zone. Right now, Bitcoin is in a high-volatility transition phase, where risk management matters more than direction.#BitcoinETFWatch #MarketCorrection Trade #BTC Here 👇👇👇
BTCUSDTPerp78,673.8-6.44%

How Whales Look at the Monthly Close @ Monthly Close Theories1. A close above 89.400 is positive, indicating a potential rise to 103.700. This positivity is confirmed by a hold above 91.700, followed by a rise to 95.750.Second Theory2. A close and hold at 86.400 suggests sideways movement. This anticipates a potential drop to 74 and 69. The movement would then be sideways within a range of 88.400 to 83.370. The holdout level must remain stable at 86.400. This would lead to a decrease in Bitcoin's holdings to the 58.55 area. It would also give altcoins a three-week rally until Bitcoin consolidates. Third Theory @3. This is the most dangerous and comprehensive scenario: a clear monthly close below 86.400 would signal a decline in holdings. To 57.30The swing is confirmed to levels of 69, 66, and 62, from which it rebounds, coinciding with Ethereum's drop to 2.270.This timeframe theory is limited to ten days. Its purpose is to eliminate short-term traders and provide consolidation zones for Bitcoin and Ethereum whales. If I were the market maker, I would use theory number 3.

$BTC

slid sharply on Monday, briefly dipping to the $86,000 zone as selling pressure accelerated across the market. The move extends a difficult week for the largest cryptocurrency, which is now down close to 10% over the past seven days, according to market data.Despite heavy buying activity on derivatives exchanges, price action failed to stabilize, highlighting growing tension between aggressive traders and broader market sentiment.
Key TakeawaysBitcoin fell to the $86,000 area as weekly losses deepened and volatility picked up.Heavy long liquidations and extreme buy-side imbalance point to overcrowded bullish positioning.Technical indicators suggest weakening momentum, with recovery dependent on reclaiming levels above $90,000.The pullback came with a clear spike in volatility. Bitcoin was trading around $86,400 at the time of writing, down more than 3% on the day, while daily volumes surged as traders rushed to reposition. Market capitalization also fell below recent highs, reinforcing the sense that momentum has turned fragile in the short term.
Leverage builds up as price moves lowerOne of the most striking developments during the drop was the scale of liquidations. Data shows more than $156 million in Bitcoin positions were wiped out in a short period, with long positions accounting for the overwhelming majority. Over $154 million in longs were liquidated, compared with just a few million in shorts, suggesting that many traders were caught leaning too aggressively to the upside.At the same time, derivatives data revealed a sharp imbalance in order flow. Bitcoin’s taker buy-sell ratio on BitMEX briefly surged to extremely elevated levels, signaling intense market buying from traders attempting to catch a rebound.Historically, such extreme readings often reflect late long positioning rather than the start of a sustainable rally. In this case, heavy buying failed to push price higher, increasing the risk of further downside as those positions come under pressure.
$BTC Charts show weakening momentumFrom a technical perspective, the picture has also deteriorated. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin has been making lower highs and lower lows since failing near the $96,000-$98,000 area earlier this month. Momentum indicators are reinforcing the bearish tone. The MACD remains deep in negative territory, while the RSI recently dipped toward oversold levels before attempting a modest bounce.While oversold conditions can sometimes lead to short-term relief rallies, the broader structure suggests caution. Unless Bitcoin can reclaim key resistance levels above $90,000, downside tests toward lower support zones cannot be ruled out. For now, price action indicates that buyers are struggling to regain control despite clear attempts to step in.As the market digests the latest move, traders will be watching closely to see whether this drop marks a temporary shakeout or the start of a deeper correction.
$BTC #SouthKoreaSeizedBTCLoss #USIranMarketImpact BTC86,584.2-3.07%

The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown by January 31 has surged to approximately 78%, prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. According to NS3.AI, this development has caused a significant drop in crypto market sentiment, which has fallen to 'Extreme Fear' on the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.
Concerns over delayed economic data and increased market volatility are contributing to this sentiment.Historically, precious metals have shown strong rallies during government shutdowns, while cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin tend to experience increased volatility and downside risk. Investors are closely monitoring these trends as the situation unfolds.

Guys, $BTC rejected sharply from the $98K zone and is now trading near $90K after bouncing from $87K. This move has left the market divided — was this just a healthy reset, or is another drop coming first? Let’s break it down in a clean, simple way.
Market Structure & price Action The rejection at $98K wasn’t random. That level acted as a classic bull trap, catching late longs who expected an instant push to $100K. Once price lost $90K, that former support flipped into resistance. As long as BTC stays below this zone on higher timeframes, bears control the short-term trend. A strong 4H close back above $90K is required to shift momentum.Why Did Bitcoin Dump? This sell-off wasn’t driven by technicals alone. Rising geopolitical tension and new tariff headlines triggered uncertainty across risk markets. Algorithms reacted instantly, followed by emotional selling from retail traders. Despite the negative news, the bounce from $87K shows the market views this as short-term political noise, not a fundamental breakdown.
On-Chain Reality CheckThis move flushed excess leverage. Over $600M in long positions were wiped out in a single day, resetting open interest and removing weak hands. While leveraged traders were forced out, spot buyers stepped in aggressively around $87K. Smart money used fear as an entry opportunity.
What Comes Next?There are two clear paths forward:
Bullish ScenarioA confirmed reclaim and 4H close above $90K would signal strength. If support flips back in favor of buyers, price could move quickly toward $94K due to low resistance above.
Bearish ScenarioRepeated rejection at $90K would likely send $BTC back to retest the $87K demand zone. That area remains critical for maintaining the broader structure.
Final ThoughtLeverage has been cleaned out. Fear-driven news is already priced in. Now the market waits for confirmation. Don’t chase — let price show direction. Patience here will outperform prediction.
$BTC

Bitcoin is experiencing unprecedented selling activity from long-term holders, marking a significant shift in market dynamics. According to Cointelegraph, the trend of selling by these holders began well below current price levels, distinguishing this bull market from previous ones. Over the past two years, Bitcoin long-term holders have set records with their sales, indicating a price cycle and investor transition underway.Research from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant highlights the ongoing sales of significantly older coins during this bull market. Unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) involving Bitcoin that had been dormant for two years or more have surged since 2024.
Contributor Kripto Mevsimi noted that 2024 and 2025 have recorded the highest annual revived supply from long-term holders in Bitcoin's history. This data rivals the distribution seen at the end of the 2017 bull market when Bitcoin reached $20,000. Unlike previous cycles, the current revival is occurring with lower market noise but involves significantly older coins.CryptoQuant suggests that Bitcoin's long-term holders are reassessing their market exposure, a trend that began when prices surpassed $40,000. Early 2026 data does not yet indicate a full reversal of this trend, but revived long-term supply has moderated compared to the peaks of 2024–2025. Kripto Mevsimi speculates whether this represents temporary exhaustion or the start of a new accumulation phase, which will become clearer as the year progresses.As Cointelegraph reported, the activity of long-term holders bringing dormant coins to market has become a major discussion point recently. Bitcoin's underperformance compared to other major asset classes from Q4 2025 onward has raised questions about how the coming year might differ from previous price cycles. With 2026 anticipated to be a bear market year, forecasts suggest a return to much lower levels than the current $90,000. The validity of the four-year price cycle is also debated among market participants.
Bitcoin is not only undergoing a price cycle but potentially a transition in who holds it and why. Long-term holder supply behavior is one of the clearest on-chain signals of this shift, according to CryptoQuant. This evolving dynamic in the Bitcoin market underscores the changing landscape and the potential for new patterns in investor behavior.
$BTC

BitcoinWorld Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why Compass Point’s Crucial $98K Warning Demands Investor CautionIn a significant move for cryptocurrency investors, the U.S. investment bank Compass Point has issued a clear warning regarding Bitcoin’s recent volatility. The firm now advises extreme caution against buying the dips until the premier digital asset can decisively reclaim the $98,000 price level. This guidance, reported by Decrypt on October 26, 2025, stems from a detailed analysis of on-chain data and short-term holder behavior, marking a pivotal moment for market sentiment.Bitcoin Price Analysis: The $98,000 Psychological ThresholdCompass Point’s analysis identifies the $98,000 mark not as a random number, but as the calculated average purchase price for Bitcoin’s short-term holders. These investors, typically holding assets for less than 155 days, exhibit heightened sensitivity to price movements. Consequently, their collective cost basis creates a formidable zone of resistance and psychological pressure. When the price trades below this average, short-term holders are statistically more likely to sell during downturns to avoid losses, thereby amplifying selling pressure. The bank’s research indicates that until Bitcoin sustains a break above this level, the risk of further declines remains elevated, making aggressive dip-buying a perilous strategy.This framework provides crucial context for Bitcoin’s recent price action. In late October 2025, BTC staged a rally that pushed it to approximately $97,500, tantalizingly close to the key threshold. However, the asset failed to achieve a weekly close above $98,000, triggering a rejection that sent prices tumbling below $90,000. This event perfectly illustrates the technical and behavioral significance of the level Compass Point highlighted. Market analysts often refer to such levels as “on-chain resistance,” where previous investor entry points create a supply overhang.Understanding Short-Term Holder Psychology and Market ImpactThe focus on short-term holder (STH) cost basis represents a sophisticated shift in market analysis. Unlike long-term “HODLers,” short-term holders are often driven by momentum and sentiment. Their aggregate cost basis acts as a collective breakeven point. When the market price dips below it, a segment of these holders may panic-sell, converting paper losses into realized losses. This activity can create cascading sell-offs, especially in a market where leveraged positions are common. Compass Point’s warning directly addresses this dynamic, suggesting that stability above $98,000 would signal that the majority of recent buyers are in profit, potentially reducing urgent selling pressure and creating a healthier foundation for an advance.Historical Precedents and Current Market ParallelsThis pattern is not without historical precedent. Similar analysis of holder cost basis proved insightful during previous market cycles. For instance, during the 2021 bull run, the realized price for short-term holders often acted as support during healthy corrections and as resistance during bear market rallies. The current advice mirrors risk-management strategies employed by institutional analysts in traditional finance, where understanding the average entry point of the “weak hands” is key to gauging market stamina. The integration of such on-chain metrics into mainstream investment banking commentary, as seen with Compass Point, underscores the maturation of cryptocurrency market analysis.Furthermore, the bank’s note contextualizes potential future scenarios. While a deeper correction toward the $80,000 region could present a more attractive risk-reward entry point for some investors, Compass Point simultaneously warns of persistent risks. The primary concern revolves around leveraged purchasing. A market saturated with leverage is vulnerable to violent liquidations if prices move unexpectedly, which can exacerbate volatility and turn a routine correction into a steep plunge. Therefore, the bank implies that any buying activity, even at lower prices, should be approached with disciplined risk management and an awareness of overall market leverage.The Broader 2025 Cryptocurrency Landscape and Institutional InfluenceThe issuance of this guidance occurs within a specific 2025 financial landscape. Regulatory clarity in major economies like the U.S. and the E.U. has progressed, leading to deeper institutional participation. Firms like Compass Point now play a more influential role in shaping retail and institutional investor behavior through published research. Their analyses are closely watched for signals about how traditional finance interprets blockchain data. This particular report highlights the growing convergence between technical on-chain analysis and conventional fundamental risk assessment, setting a new standard for how investment banks evaluate digital asset opportunities.Other market factors contribute to the current environment. The integration of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the evolution of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols, and macroeconomic conditions like interest rates all interact with price levels identified by on-chain metrics. Compass Point’s caution serves as a reminder that despite advanced financial products and adoption, core market mechanics—like investor cost basis and leverage—remain paramount. For traders, this means complementing price chart analysis with a firm understanding of blockchain-derived supply dynamics.ConclusionCompass Point’s advisory to avoid aggressive Bitcoin dip-buying below $98,000 provides a critical, data-driven framework for navigating current market uncertainty. By pinpointing the short-term holder cost basis as a key resistance level, the analysis moves beyond simple chart patterns to incorporate behavioral economics and on-chain reality. While potential buying opportunities may emerge at lower prices, the overarching message emphasizes caution, disciplined risk assessment, and respect for leverage-related dangers. This Bitcoin price analysis from a established investment bank underscores the maturation of crypto markets, where sophisticated, evidence-based reasoning is essential for informed investment decisions in 2025 and beyond.
FAQsQ1: What is the $98,000 level that Compass Point is referring to?The $98,000 level represents the average purchase price, or aggregate cost basis, for Bitcoin investors classified as short-term holders (those holding for roughly less than five months). It’s a key on-chain metric that indicates a major psychological and resistance level.
Q2: Why are short-term holders so important for Bitcoin’s price?Short-term holders are typically more reactive to price changes than long-term investors. When the price falls below their average cost basis, they are more likely to sell to cut losses, which can increase selling pressure and drive the price down further.
Q3: Does Compass Point say not to buy Bitcoin at all?No. The advice is specifically to exercise caution with “dip-buying”—aggressively purchasing during declines—until the $98,000 level is reclaimed. The bank suggests a deeper correction to around $80,000 could be a buying opportunity, but warns of risks from high leverage in the market.
Q4: What are the risks of leveraged purchasing mentioned in the analysis?Leveraged purchasing involves using borrowed funds to amplify trades. If the price moves against these highly leveraged positions, it can trigger automatic liquidations, creating a cascade of forced selling that dramatically worsens a price drop.

Q5: How does this type of analysis affect the average cryptocurrency investor?It highlights the importance of looking beyond simple price charts. Understanding on-chain metrics like holder cost basis can provide deeper insight into market sentiment and potential support/resistance levels, helping investors make more informed decisions about entry points and risk management.This post Bitcoin Price Analysis: Why Compass Point’s Crucial $98K Warning Demands Investor Caution first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
$BTC

$BTC

While headlines scream volatility, institutions are doing the opposite
— quietly stacking BTC. Wallets holding 100–1,000 Bitcoin (excluding miners and exchanges) continue to grow, offering one of the cleanest reads on real institutional demand — ETFs included.
The numbers are staggering: 577,000 BTC added in just the past year, worth roughly $53 BILLION at current prices. And the flow hasn’t slowed.
This isn’t short-term trading capital. This is custody-grade Bitcoin being parked for the long haul. Institutions don’t accumulate like this for quick flips
— they position ahead of structural moves.
Retail panics.
Institutions absorb.
That divergence usually doesn’t last forever.
If this pace continues, the supply available to the open market keeps shrinking — and price eventually has to respond.
Are you watching price… or watching who’s buying?
Follow Wendy for more latest updates

#Bitcoin #Institutions #Crypto

Биткойн сталкивается с renewed downside pressure после того, как не смог удержать ключевой прорыв, с техническими сигналами, указывающими на потенциальное движение к уровням ниже $60,000, согласно множеству аналитиков. BTC упал до восьмидневных минимумов около $90,000 во вторник, так как рынки переваривали растующую геополитическую напряженность и ослабляющую техническую структуру, ставя быков в оборону.
Ключевые выводы
Биткойн снова вошел в свой многомесячный диапазон торгов после неудачной попытки прорыва. Новая недельная смерть пересечения сформировалась, исторически связанная с макро дном. Аналитики предупреждают, что BTC может вернуться к $58,000–$62,000, если поддержка не выдержит.