Joao Wedson

Extreme sentiment has disappeared from the crypto market! We truly need to see strong optimism, but it must be aligned with other on-chain metrics and real buying strength. Otherwise, a dead cat bounce is the most likely scenario.

The biggest Bitcoin opportunities appear when even Long-Term Holders lose their major advantage over Short-Term Holders. When the LTH/STH SOPR Ratio drops into depressed regions, the market has usually already gone through a strong compression in profitability. Historically, these zones have offered some of the best accumulation opportunities for Bitcoin. This is powerful because it does not measure opinion. It measures real on-chain behavior. Alphractal. com

Bitcoin has entered a decisive phase. Supply in Profit has lost its trendline for the first time, while Short-Term Holders are no longer as pressured as they were before. In this new video, I explain why I believe the final accumulation phase has already begun, but also why I still expect one last wave of volatility due to Liquidation Levels. Fasten your seatbelts. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc1YgJuOaiE

Bitcoin’s STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is currently at -$36B.

STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss measures the net paper profit or loss held by Short-Term Holders.

Formula: STH Unrealized Profit minus STH Unrealized Loss.

Positive values indicate that recent buyers are still holding net gains. Negative values indicate widespread underwater positions and a more fragile market structure.

Interestingly, this metric was close to -$120B in February, when capitulation reached its peak in terms of unrealized losses.

Even though Bitcoin is now trading at lower prices than in February, Short-Term Holders are not carrying the same level of unrealized losses.

This is because the Short-Term Holder Realized Price is not as far from the current price as it was back in February.

This suggests that accumulation by Short-Term Holders may already be taking place.

To learn more about Bitcoin’s on-chain health and activate alerts and Alpha AI insights, visit Alphractal.com .

🐳Whales vs Retail shows that whales have reached a level of interest in Bitcoin Shorts very similar to what we saw in 2022.

Meanwhile, retail continues to move in the opposite direction, persistently favoring Longs.

This is a challenging moment for Short-Term Holders and leveraged traders.

When whales and retail are positioned so differently, risk increases and high-quality signals become even more important.

Do not stay without this signal.

Activate your alerts on Alphractal.com

Altcoin $ICNT , Impossible Cloud Network Token, is up 28% today, and here are its Liquidation Levels from 7 days to 90 days.

Before the move up, it had basically liquidated all the bulls.

And even though, in the short term, there are still many liquidation levels below, which increases the risk of entering right now, the big lesson here is clear:

In the crypto market, liquidity and trader liquidations are what move prices.

That is why so many traders struggle to understand why a crypto asset rises or falls without any strong short term narrative behind it.

Start your 3-day free trial at Alphractal.com

The short term still looks terrible for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Bitcoin liquidity changes constantly, and over the past few hours many traders have continued opening long positions.

For now, I think doing that is a terrible decision.

Activate your alerts on Liquidation Levels and only enter when other traders are seriously hurt.

$BTC $ETH
#Bearmarket

The only thing Short-Term Holders are doing right now is realizing losses.

Bitcoin has not allowed these investors to realize profits for quite some time.

The STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio makes it clear that the current environment is dominated by on-chain movements at a loss.

This is typical of a bear market, and once Realized Loss starts losing strength, Bitcoin will likely be in the process of forming a bottom.

That is why it is necessary to monitor this closely on Alphractal.com.

🔥The newest Liquidation Levels are now live on Alphractal!

Now even better.

Powered by data from 30 exchanges, an aggregated model, and a framework that takes into account positions by trade size, whale positioning, and deleveraging algorithms.

This is a Premium tool, so it requires a Pro license.

But you can still take advantage of the free 3-day trial.

Alphractal.com

Solana’s 30-day Open Interest change is about to turn positive.

The last two times this happened, $SOL moved slightly higher, but a sharp drop followed afterward.

A real liquidity hunt often happens across exchanges.

Also, when the monthly Open Interest change jumped by more than $2B compared to the previous month, the price marked local tops. In some cases, it did not even need to surpass that level.

Once this metric stays positive for a few days, some strategic selling to buy back lower later may be a good strategy.

Keep an eye on it!

⚠️This chart captured every historical top and bottom of Bitcoin Cash.

This shows the true power of Alphractal’s calibrated metrics and tools, such as the Workbench.

The most interesting part is that, even with this impressive track record, I would not be surprised if $BCH still falls further.

Right now, the bottom signal from this model would only appear below $100, which means there is still a possible downside of nearly 50% from here.

Will this actually happen? Nobody knows, and I cannot tell you that it will, because no market ever gives certainty.

But one thing is clear: if this drop happens, the region below $100 has a high probability of marking the bottom of this Bitcoin Cash bear cycle.

This is exactly what we are building at Alphractal:

Turning complex data into objective signals that help identify top and bottom zones with much more clarity.

Data comes first. Narratives come later. Make better decisions where real Alpha lives. Alphractal.com

If you are not worried about the short term, take a look at this. Ethereum is currently in one of its best phases for accumulation. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, NUPL, is in the red zone. This means unrealized losses are now significantly higher than unrealized profits across Ethereum’s history. Historically, this has marked excellent moments to DCA. So my answer on ETH is simple: Keep buying every week, or on any strong pullback that happens, because once $ETH leaves this red zone, it may not return to it anytime soon. Alphractal.com

Bittensor (TAO) was one of the most mentioned altcoins this week, with a strong weekly price recovery and growing market attention due to its position as a leading AI token.

However, until June 14, whales were heavily positioned in longs compared to retail.

Now, whales are predominantly positioned in shorts, while retail traders continue to persist in longs.

Stay alert, because the optimism around AI could trigger unexpected liquidations for many unaware traders.

🔥 Alphractal

New video is live.

In this one, I go through several important topics:

Bitcoin Fractal Cycle
Institutional Analysis
Accumulation and Distribution Theories
Buy/Sell Pressure Delta
Identifying Liquidation Levels
Final market view on ETH

The goal is simple: understand where Bitcoin is inside the cycle, where liquidity is concentrated, and what the data is really showing before the narrative becomes obvious.

Data first. Narratives later.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y3s65KCanvc

Киты проявляют больший интерес к $TON, чем розничные трейдеры.

Дельта китов против розницы показывает, что в краткосрочной перспективе интерес к лонгам среди крупных игроков увеличился на OKX, Binance и Gate.

Тем временем, розничные трейдеры не демонстрируют такого же уровня интереса.

Другими словами, крупные игроки занимают более агрессивные позиции, в то время как розничные трейдеры остаются значительно менее вовлеченными.

Лайткоин входит в важный регион цикла.

LTC сейчас снова тестирует нижние уровни скорректированной рыночной средней цены Фибоначчи, метрики, которая использует рыночную среднюю цену в качестве основы и строит пропорциональные полосы Фибоначчи для отображения зон расширения, областей возврата к среднему и зон накопления.

Исторически, в периоды сильного рыночного стресса, цена Лайткоина достигала нижней полосы, выделенной зеленым. В другие моменты она находила поддержку в синих регионах, которые также отмечали важные зоны цен на предыдущих циклах.

В текущий момент LTC только что коснулась первого нижнего уровня этой модели, снова входя в возможную зону накопления.

Верхние полосы обычно ассоциируются с перегретыми фазами и риском распределения. Нижние полосы, как правило, представляют собой регионы, где актив начинает выглядеть недооцененным относительно своей структурной средней.

На логарифмической шкале становится яснее, как Лайткоин снова приближается к зонам, которые в прошлом требовали внимания со стороны долгосрочных инвесторов.

$LTC слаб, но крайняя слабость – это также то место, где циклы начинают формировать стоимость.

Не трать время зря. Спроси Alpha AI бесплатно прямо сейчас, как дела у твоей любимой крипты, и получи невероятные инсайты.

См. больше на Alphractal.com

Конец медвежьего рынка Биткойна может занять немного больше времени, чем многие ожидают. Нравится это вам или нет, этот сигнал оказался очень точным, и нам нужно внимательно за ним следить. Я запишу видео для всех с реальным обзором того, что мы видим, и истории, которую рассказывают данные. Оставайтесь на связи. Alphractal.com

Новое видео на YouTube: Alphractal Workbench!

Я показал, как использовать один из самых мощных инструментов Alphractal для анализа данных, создания формул, построения сигналов, сравнения метрик различных активов и создания персонализированных анализов с гораздо большей свободой.

Workbench открывает новый уровень анализа для тех, кто хочет выйти за рамки традиционных графиков.

Смотрите здесь:

https://youtu.be/iUnFOhNoeGA

Поиск криптовалют в Google снова растет в июне. Это знак того, что розничные инвесторы начинают больше интересоваться различными криптоактивами и вновь вникают в рынок. Всплески в Google Trends также часто связаны с моментами эйфории и страха. Отслеживайте больше метрик настроения на Alphractal. com.

⚠️Продавливание на $ETH исчерпано. Попытка восстановления цены, скорее всего, будет вызвана возобновлением покупательского давления. Кроме того, последний крупный пул ликвидации уже был задействован по ETH. Тревожные быки были ликвидированы, что означает, что более сильные руки теперь смогут аккумулировать более спокойно. Следите за Альфой. Это всё.