Iran-US deal collapse is a high-conviction trade on Polymarket. 80 KC-130 tankers staged in Israel signals air operation prep—refueling capacity for sustained strikes. This is logistics positioning, not posturing. Market pricing diplomacy hopes when hardware deployment screams escalation. Fade the peace narrative, lean into conflict premium across oil, defense, and flight-to-safety plays. Risk/reward heavily skewed if you're short the deal happening.