ЗОЛОТО / ДОЛЛАР США (XAUUSD)

M_Zaman36 · 2026-10-29T04:30:47.000Z

Текущая цена: 4 041,78 Смещение на H4: медвежье Состояние структуры: последовательное формирование более низких максимумов и минимумов после сильного медвежьего импульса; после пробоя зоны сопротивления 4 080–4 120 цена консолидируется в районе 4 000–4 060. Структура рынка XAUUSD сохраняет медвежью структуру на H4 после снижения от сентябрьских максимумов в районе 4 400–4 440. Нисходящая линия тренда и повторяющиеся более низкие максимумы указывают на устойчивое давление продавцов. Последний импульс вниз опустил цену ниже 4 080, в район 4 000, где сформировался краткосрочный отскок.

Current Price: 4,041.78
H4 Bias: Bearish
Structure State: Successive lower highs and lower lows following strong bearish displacement, with price consolidating near 4,000–4,060 after breaking below the 4,080–4,120 resistance region.
Market Structure
XAUUSD maintains a bearish H4 structure following the decline from the September highs around 4,400–4,440. The descending trendline and repeated lower highs indicate persistent selling pressure. The latest bearish expansion carried price beneath 4,080 and into the 4,000 region, where a short-term rebound has developed.
The current price of 4,041.78 remains below the 4,060–4,080 supply zone. The recovery is corrective unless buyers reclaim 4,080 and subsequently establish acceptance above 4,120. A renewed rejection followed by a break below 4,000 would expose 3,980 and then the 3,960 lower-liquidity level.
Key Resistance
Resistance 1: 4,080 — first important recovery threshold.
Resistance 2: 4,120 — secondary resistance and structural reclaim level.
Nearer Supply: 4,060–4,080 — immediate bearish reaction zone.
Major Supply / Bearish OB: 4,160–4,200 — higher-timeframe overhead supply.
Key Support
Support 1: 4,000 — immediate psychological and structural support.
Major Demand: 4,000–3,980 — lower demand and potential reaction zone.
Sell-Side Liquidity: 3,960 — downside liquidity target if demand fails.
FVG — Fair Value Gap
The latest bearish displacement provides a potential bearish imbalance around the broken 4,080–4,120 region. A retracement into an unfilled portion of the move could attract sellers. Exact gap boundaries should be verified against the original three-candle formation.
Order Block (OB)
The 4,160–4,200 zone is the principal overhead bearish order-block candidate. The nearer 4,060–4,080 region is the first area to monitor for rejection. The 4,000–3,980 zone is the principal demand candidate, but a sustained bullish reversal requires structural confirmation.
Liquidity Map
Buy-side liquidity (BSL): Above 4,080–4,120, with major liquidity around 4,160–4,200.
Sell-side liquidity (SSL): Beneath 4,000, extending toward 3,980 and 3,960.
Trade Scenarios
Bearish continuation: Rejection from 4,060–4,080, followed by a confirmed H4 break below 4,000, would expose 3,980 and 3,960.
Bullish recovery: Reclaim 4,080 and establish acceptance above 4,120. Further upside would require continued bullish displacement toward the 4,160–4,200 supply zone.
Trendline
The descending trendline from the September highs continues to define the broader bearish structure. A sustained break above the trendline, followed by a higher low and a bullish CHoCH, would be necessary to establish a credible reversal.
Invalidation
Sustained H4 acceptance above 4,200 would weaken the prevailing bearish structure. A confirmed break below 3,980 would invalidate the immediate recovery scenario and increase the probability of a move toward 3,960.
Professional Summary
Primary bias: Bearish.
Current price: 4,041.78.
Immediate resistance: 4,060–4,080.
Secondary resistance: 4,120.
Major supply: 4,160–4,200.
Immediate support: 4,000.
Lower demand: 4,000–3,980.
Bearish trigger: Confirmed H4 break below 4,000.
Recovery trigger: Reclaim of 4,080–4,120.
Risk Consideration: Gold is attempting to stabilize after a sharp decline. Avoid chasing shorts directly into the 4,000–3,980 demand region; wait for a confirmed breakdown or a bearish rejection from resistance.