Scenario A - Bullish Breakout: ETH Reclaims ,500 by Weekend
If ETH clears ,400 resistance with volume confirmation, the technical path opens toward ,480-,520, with ,550 as the next structural target.
Drivers: (1) softer-than-expected PCE print weakening the dollar; (2) continued positive ETF flows; (3) short-covering from the ,300-,350 liquidation cluster.
Under this scenario, volatility expands to the upside; ETH/BTC ratio recovers toward 0.035. Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) flip bullish. Key invalidation: failure to hold ,380 on a retest.
Risk: false-breakout risk is high - demand confirmation via rising spot volume and positive funding. Position sizing should reflect the ~40% probability assigned to this path.
$ETH #EarningsSeason
If ETH clears ,400 resistance with volume confirmation, the technical path opens toward ,480-,520, with ,550 as the next structural target.
Drivers: (1) softer-than-expected PCE print weakening the dollar; (2) continued positive ETF flows; (3) short-covering from the ,300-,350 liquidation cluster.
Under this scenario, volatility expands to the upside; ETH/BTC ratio recovers toward 0.035. Momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) flip bullish. Key invalidation: failure to hold ,380 on a retest.
Risk: false-breakout risk is high - demand confirmation via rising spot volume and positive funding. Position sizing should reflect the ~40% probability assigned to this path.
$ETH #EarningsSeason
