$BZ Brent crude oil’s high-level tug-of-war: the battle around the $112 mark
Brothers, after two days of sideways trading, today when the casino opened, this BZ market really was exhausting. After surging to $112, it was immediately sold off, and now it’s repeatedly tugging around 111.3. This kind of走势 is the classic “too high to chase, too low to short” dilemma.
From my perspective, this wave of volatility isn’t just a simple technical correction, but a psychological battle between bulls and bears under extreme sentiment.
Bullish and bearish factors are intertwined in the news flow. The market is hoping for a cooling of tensions, and the war premium could be given back at any time. But incidents like mine triggers in the Strait of Hormuz and missile interceptions have not stopped either; negotiations and the battlefield are happening at the same time. As long as there is no formal agreement in place, every spike in the news could be a bull trap.
In addition, oil exports from Gulf producers are recovering, strait traffic is resuming, freight rates are falling, and supply tightness is indeed easing. But global demand expectations have been revised down, diesel crack spreads remain high, and the structural tightness in refined products has not been resolved. I personally think supply recovery is a slow variable, while demand contraction is a fast variable, so the short-term floor in oil prices is actually not that solid.
Geopolitical premium and supply recovery are pulling against each other, while weak demand and tight refined-product markets are offsetting one another. In the short term, the most likely scenario is still wide-range high-level volatility, and the risk of one-sided bets is extremely high.
Right now, the advice is not to chase highs or catch bottoms; wait for progress in negotiations or clear signals from Strait transit data before taking action.#Anthropic滚动12个月营收增长约1200%
Brothers, after two days of sideways trading, today when the casino opened, this BZ market really was exhausting. After surging to $112, it was immediately sold off, and now it’s repeatedly tugging around 111.3. This kind of走势 is the classic “too high to chase, too low to short” dilemma.
From my perspective, this wave of volatility isn’t just a simple technical correction, but a psychological battle between bulls and bears under extreme sentiment.
Bullish and bearish factors are intertwined in the news flow. The market is hoping for a cooling of tensions, and the war premium could be given back at any time. But incidents like mine triggers in the Strait of Hormuz and missile interceptions have not stopped either; negotiations and the battlefield are happening at the same time. As long as there is no formal agreement in place, every spike in the news could be a bull trap.
In addition, oil exports from Gulf producers are recovering, strait traffic is resuming, freight rates are falling, and supply tightness is indeed easing. But global demand expectations have been revised down, diesel crack spreads remain high, and the structural tightness in refined products has not been resolved. I personally think supply recovery is a slow variable, while demand contraction is a fast variable, so the short-term floor in oil prices is actually not that solid.
Geopolitical premium and supply recovery are pulling against each other, while weak demand and tight refined-product markets are offsetting one another. In the short term, the most likely scenario is still wide-range high-level volatility, and the risk of one-sided bets is extremely high.
Right now, the advice is not to chase highs or catch bottoms; wait for progress in negotiations or clear signals from Strait transit data before taking action.#Anthropic滚动12个月营收增长约1200%
