a sharp jump from 29% in a recent update. The shift reflects growing investor belief that the two companies led by Elon Musk could combine in the near term.
Several developments are driving the speculation. Tesla's recently unveiled next-generation Roadster incorporates SpaceX technology, including the ability to hover—an illustration of how closely the two firms already collaborate. Musk himself has pointed to increasing overlap between Tesla and SpaceX, suggesting that pooling their efforts could strengthen each company's technological capabilities and market position.
Barclays analysts believe a merger announcement could come before Tesla's annual general meeting, which is scheduled for no later than December 6, 2026. In their view, the deal could center on vertical integration in AI technologies, aligning Tesla's artificial intelligence work with SpaceX's engineering and manufacturing resources.
Investor sentiment is shifting accordingly. Evercore ISI has recommended buying SpaceX shares ahead of its upcoming earnings release, signaling confidence in the potential combination and what it might mean for both companies' futures.
Taken together, the prediction market surge, analyst expectations, and research recommendations suggest that a Tesla–SpaceX merger—once a speculative idea—is now being treated as a plausible scenario with a defined timeline. Whether the odds continue to climb will likely depend on further signals from Musk and the two companies' strategic moves in the months ahead.