$BTC at $81,431 right now.
4 years ago? $19,334. Scale that to today's cycle = $95,656.
8 years ago? $6,396. Scale that = $572,660.
We're underperforming the 4-year cycle trajectory by ~15%. Way off the 8-year pace.
Either we're compressing gains as the market matures, or we're coiling for a delayed rip. Macro liquidity and ETF flows will decide which one plays out.
If you're long, this is still early cycle territory. If you're trading, watch for breakout confirmation above $95k to validate the 4-year model.
4 years ago? $19,334. Scale that to today's cycle = $95,656.
8 years ago? $6,396. Scale that = $572,660.
We're underperforming the 4-year cycle trajectory by ~15%. Way off the 8-year pace.
Either we're compressing gains as the market matures, or we're coiling for a delayed rip. Macro liquidity and ETF flows will decide which one plays out.
If you're long, this is still early cycle territory. If you're trading, watch for breakout confirmation above $95k to validate the 4-year model.