Picture this: roughly 3% of every Bitcoin that will ever exist is already sitting in government wallets, and most of the market only notices when those wallets twitch.
Traders get burned on both sides of that silence. They panic-sell the moment a state wallet moves, or they FOMO into the "countries are stacking" story without checking whether the coins were bought or simply seized.
Governments are now estimated to hold about 646,000 $BTC . Set against Bitcoin's 21 million cap, that is close to 3% of total supply parked with states. A big share of it never came from a treasury vote. It came from seizures and forfeitures, with a few public purchases mixed in, which is a very different pile from a company buying on a schedule.
Look at 2024, when Germany worked through a large confiscated stash and every transfer got read as a top. Then look at El Salvador, which bought in the open and talked about it. Quiet stockpiles do not trade like announced reserves. $ETH still does not have the same pattern of state-sized bags, so this supply squeeze is mostly a $BTC story. Those coins tighten the float right up until a government decides they do not, and a sale can show up in days rather than the slow bid people have gotten used to.
Where do you think these holdings go from here, stay frozen or start hitting the market?
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto
Traders get burned on both sides of that silence. They panic-sell the moment a state wallet moves, or they FOMO into the "countries are stacking" story without checking whether the coins were bought or simply seized.
Governments are now estimated to hold about 646,000 $BTC . Set against Bitcoin's 21 million cap, that is close to 3% of total supply parked with states. A big share of it never came from a treasury vote. It came from seizures and forfeitures, with a few public purchases mixed in, which is a very different pile from a company buying on a schedule.
Look at 2024, when Germany worked through a large confiscated stash and every transfer got read as a top. Then look at El Salvador, which bought in the open and talked about it. Quiet stockpiles do not trade like announced reserves. $ETH still does not have the same pattern of state-sized bags, so this supply squeeze is mostly a $BTC story. Those coins tighten the float right up until a government decides they do not, and a sale can show up in days rather than the slow bid people have gotten used to.
Where do you think these holdings go from here, stay frozen or start hitting the market?
#Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto