Primary Downtrend Continues to Favour Sellers
XRP continues to struggle within its broader bearish trend, with the recent recovery failing to produce a convincing change in structure. The rejection from $1.6581 has reinforced the developing sequence of lower highs, leaving sellers firmly in control.
Repeated Rejections at Major Weekly Resistance
The $1.50–$1.60 resistance zone continues to attract significant selling pressure, with weekly Fibonacci resistance adding further confluence. Bulls ultimately need a convincing break above $1.70 to challenge the prevailing primary downtrend.
100/50-Day EMAs Face Increasing Selling Pressure
XRP has now slipped below both the bullishly crossed 100/50-day EMAs, highlighting the deterioration in short-term price action. A failure to reclaim these averages would increase the likelihood of another move towards the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $1.2588.
Bearish RSI Divergence Highlights Weakening Momentum
RSI has produced a series of lower highs throughout the recent recovery, highlighting weakening momentum before the latest decline. With RSI now well below 50 and StochRSI oversold, the bearish bias remains, although a short-term bounce cannot be ruled out.
Declining Selling Volume Offers Some Encouragement
Trading volume has remained relatively subdued as XRP has retraced from resistance, suggesting the decline has not attracted particularly aggressive selling. However, buyers have shown little conviction in reversing the recent bearish price action.
Fair Value Gap Becomes the Next Important Support
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $1.2588 sits at the upper boundary of a fair value gap extending towards $1.1363. A convincing break below this area would increase the risk of a deeper correction, with the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $1.1389 providing additional confluence further down.
In Summary
XRP remains under pressure following repeated failures around major weekly resistance, with the latest decline taking price below the bullishly crossed 100/50-day EMAs. Bearish RSI divergence and weakening momentum reinforce the deterioration in the short-term structure, although declining selling volume offers some encouragement. The $1.2588 Fibonacci level and nearby fair value gap now become particularly important, while bulls ultimately need to reclaim $1.70 before the broader bearish outlook begins to change.
