Bad news for the economy is, once again, good news for risk assets.
The U.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 84,000 economists expected. The two previous months were revised down by a combined 60,000, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Wall Street's reading: the pressure to keep hiking rates just eased, which generally bodes well for risk assets like Bitcoin. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization rose sharply following today’s macro moves, and the charts suggest Bitcoin could go higher still during the month affectionately known as Uptober.
Before diving into the data, here’s some context traders and investors should know: The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point on September 16, in a unanimous vote, lifting the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. It was the first hike since 2023. Higher rates means less “cheap money” for investments, but Bitcoin shook it off far better than Wall Street.
Since then, though, officials have been tapping the brakes. New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday there was "no need for urgency," and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Thursday that policymakers may need more time before deciding whether to raise rates again.
CME FedWatch odds of a hike at the October meeting dropped sharply after the report, falling to 14% from 70% earlier this week. Prediction markets Kalshi, Polymarket, and Myriad agree: 80% odds of a hold on October 28.