$BTC pushed above $87K after US jobs data came in ice cold—29K jobs added vs 89K expected, unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
This is the liquidity signal bulls were waiting for. Weak jobs = Fed holds rates = risk-on continues. CME FedWatch now pricing 82% chance of no hike at Oct 28 meeting, up from 36% a week ago.
But here's the nuance most are missing: weak isn't automatically bullish. Soft-but-orderly landing = liquidity flows into $BTC. Growth scare scenario = risk-off across the board, and $BTC gets dragged down with equities.
Key data:
• July/August jobs revised DOWN by 60K combined
• Wage growth holding at 3% YoY—not collapsing
• PCE inflation came in at 3.4% vs 3.7% expected
Liquidity is still the main driver here. If the Fed pivots dovish without triggering recession fears, $BTC could run. If macro cracks harder, expect volatility.
Watch the next CPI print and Fed commentary closely. This isn't a straight line up.
This is the liquidity signal bulls were waiting for. Weak jobs = Fed holds rates = risk-on continues. CME FedWatch now pricing 82% chance of no hike at Oct 28 meeting, up from 36% a week ago.
But here's the nuance most are missing: weak isn't automatically bullish. Soft-but-orderly landing = liquidity flows into $BTC. Growth scare scenario = risk-off across the board, and $BTC gets dragged down with equities.
Key data:
• July/August jobs revised DOWN by 60K combined
• Wage growth holding at 3% YoY—not collapsing
• PCE inflation came in at 3.4% vs 3.7% expected
Liquidity is still the main driver here. If the Fed pivots dovish without triggering recession fears, $BTC could run. If macro cracks harder, expect volatility.
Watch the next CPI print and Fed commentary closely. This isn't a straight line up.