BTC is sitting around $83.5K, and honestly, Q4 is starting at a pretty interesting spot.

We just came off a huge +42.7% Q3, but the post-PCE push to $85.6K didn’t hold. BTC is back inside that familiar $82K–$85K range.
Now I’m watching the downside closely.
Around $83K, there’s roughly $60M in estimated long liquidations.
Lose $82.5K and things get more interesting.
The estimated ETF cost basis sits around $81.7K–$82.2K, while the 365D MA is sitting near $80K.
So a normal 3% pullback from here could take BTC straight into a pretty important zone.
The difference is simple:
Leverage traders get liquidated.
Spot/ETF holders just go underwater.
But if enough spot holders start panicking, that selling can become the bigger problem.
At the same time, OI has already dropped quite a bit and funding is close to neutral, so the market doesn’t look heavily overleveraged right now.
Above us, $84K–$85K is still a major area too, with heavy LTH cost basis sitting there.
So I’m basically watching this range:
$85K → resistance

$83K → liquidation zone

$82.5K → support

$82K → ETF cost basis

$80K → 365D MA

Q4 is just getting started.

Which line breaks first? 👀

#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto