This is exactly what I was talking about...
But now, the data perspective has changed.
We’ve already retraced around half of yesterday’s move, but this time funding has flipped back significantly positive while OI going sideways.
This tells us that shorts are being closed while perp longs are starting to enter the market again. Yesterday, longs got squeezed completely. Now, after shorts are closing they are reopening their positions, trying to catch the bottom.
The problem here is spot demand.
There is barely any meaningful spot buying behind this bounce, meaning the current move is mainly perp-driven. And that’s not what you want to see for a sustainable reversal.
You want to see bounces from support backed by strong spot demand, not leveraged traders chasing the move while spot remains weak.
At the same time, liquidity is starting to build below again, and I don’t think the market will simply leave that liquidity untouched.
From a structural perspective, we also have confirmed the breakdown. The last 4H candle clearly closed below support, confirming the LTF downtrend once again.
For now, I see the current bounce mainly as a retest and market reset, rather than the beginning of a sustained move higher.
However, the NY session will be interesting...$BTC
